Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Disney, Tapestry, Monterey, and University Endowments (Podcast)

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Disney, Tapestry, Monterey, and University Endowments (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: This is another name that kind of was on the
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: radar screen for a lot of investors. They reported numbers
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: last night a little bit better and expected people looking
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: at the streaming business the losses there, we're a little
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: bit lower. That's good. It's all part of Bob Byerker's
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: CEO's plan to cut costs here. But there's as many
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: questions around that company as I've ever seen in my
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: thirty years of covering it. Most you know, when you
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: see a business like ESPN, which is just the rock
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: solid core of this company for twenty twenty five years now,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: you're wondering whether you even want to own it. Mark
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Douglas joins, he's the CEO of Mountain. He knows a
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: thing or two about this business, about the media business,
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: about the digital advertising business. Hey, Mark, you take a
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: look at what is a stal war media company like Disney,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: and boy, there are a lot of question marks there.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: What did you what are some of the key issues
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  Speaker 1: for you when you look at Disney?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think the fundamental issue is Disney. You know,
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  Speaker 3: sell has magical prices for everything they do, meaning the
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: prices are generally pretty high, and I think they're not
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  Speaker 3: really delivering magical you know, experiences and or magical content
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  Speaker 3: right now, and they keep looking externally for whether the
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: factors that are affecting their business rather than just looking internally.
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: And so even if consumers are spending less money, then
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  Speaker 3: deliver the magic and take a bigger share of wallet.
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  Speaker 3: But you know, I think they're full of excuses right now,
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: and until they look at themselves, I think this kind
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: of like we're not doing as well as we used
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: to is going to continue.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: So, uh, what's the answer on the whole streaming thing?
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: The streamers really make money?
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Mark?
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  Speaker 4: Because I was listening to Paul interview the head.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Of I think Sagraw and she was saying the streamers
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: make thirty billion a year in profits and they want
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  Speaker 2: a piece of it.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, obviously Netflix is definitely making money, and
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  Speaker 3: I think you're gonna say it because Netflix, their ad
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  Speaker 3: supported tier is you know, off to somewhat of a
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  Speaker 3: slow start, but it's just hugely profitable for them. The
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: what they're doing in password sharing again is just hugely
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: profitable for them. And my opinion is Netflix is going
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: to kind of enter a new era of just increased
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: learnings and I think anyone else can get there, but
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: it starts with you know, people want to be in
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: the parks, people want to watch Star Wars, they want
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: to watch new Disney movies, and they want to do
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: them at the same rates that they have in the past.
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: So I think Disney can absolutely get there. I'm a
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: little concern that, you know, they're talking about reducing their
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: investment in streaming or moving away from ESPN as if
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: people don't want to watch sports anymore. And so it's
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: as you open, it's a little bit of just like
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: everything seems to be in turmoil, where you know, I
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: don't think the consumer has actually changed that much. It's
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: Disney's the one that seems to not know exactly the
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  Speaker 3: direction they want to go.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and that even applies to the film business, which
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: had been you know, ever since they started buying all
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: these great brands like Pixar, like Marvel, like the Star
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  Speaker 1: Wars franchises. It was literally guaranteeing them two to three
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  Speaker 1: to four movies per year with a global gross in
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: excess of one billion dollars. Now, even that business seems
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: like it might be in a rut. They've delayed and
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: pushed out a lot of release dates. Maybe some people
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: are saying, maybe we're oversaturated with some of these franchises.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: And then we just look at Barbie kind of a
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  Speaker 1: new original movie that's over a billion dollars in box office.
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  Speaker 1: So do you think Walt Disney's lost some of their
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  Speaker 1: magic when it comes to the film business?
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  Speaker 5: Mark?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you know.
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  Speaker 3: So this is we've talked about the sports on the show.
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, when your team's not doing well, everyone needs
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: to remember how they catch the ball and hit right
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: like it's baseball season right now, and the best managers
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  Speaker 3: just go back to basics. And I think Disney's problems
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: are not huge if they just go back to basics.
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  Speaker 3: And if they go back to basics, they kind of
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  Speaker 3: own the segment. There's these huge segments of the market, parents, children, sports,
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  Speaker 3: and you know when you see a company that owns
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  Speaker 3: segments of the market, I mean, just like dominate segments
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  Speaker 3: of the market like that, and they're a little confused
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  Speaker 3: as to what they should do, like just go back
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  Speaker 3: to basics, get a little less focus on near turn
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  Speaker 3: results in Wall Street, and just essentially kind of grow
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  Speaker 3: yourself out of that. And and you know, especially when
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: you have the kind of capital that Disney has to
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  Speaker 3: do it also, So I mean, they're not at risk
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  Speaker 3: of running out of money unless they look their losses
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  Speaker 3: continue for a very long time. So I mean that's
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: my advice as a CEO by by gerbviously is a
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  Speaker 3: very smart guy, and he and and he's gonna, you know,
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  Speaker 3: follow what he thinks his best and so we'll see
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  Speaker 3: how this plays out.
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: You have any succession advice for Bob, Well, the last
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: one didn't go well, didn't go any better than the
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: show Succession, So.
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  Speaker 3: I think he's gonna have to really fix this before
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  Speaker 3: he brings in someone else to grow it. Yeah, so
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  Speaker 3: that's it. I don't think he's there for one year.
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: I think this is going to take a few years.
• 5:29
  Speaker 6: I haven't seen the end of Succession, So we won't
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  Speaker 6: will spoiler, won't we won't spoiler for you, Hey, Mark,
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  Speaker 6: you know, it's just when you think about Disney, there,
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  Speaker 6: like all the media companies really exposed to these strikes
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  Speaker 6: that we're seeing with the writers and the actors.
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  Speaker 1: You're so involved with the you know, the advertising side
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  Speaker 1: of the business, the digital side of the business. What's
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  Speaker 1: your take on the strikes? Share, because boy, both sides
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: seem really really entrenched.
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, I think, first from what I understand, the
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: anything that was already in motion on the movie on
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  Speaker 3: the film side is is allowed. That project is allowed
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  Speaker 3: to get completed. So it's actually going to take a
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: few more months before like literally everything is truly shut down.
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  Speaker 3: And then I think you know, the streamers and you
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  Speaker 3: know the studios and things like that. I mean, cash
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: is king. They have a lot of cash to wake
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  Speaker 3: this out. So this is it's hard to predict how
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  Speaker 3: this is going to go. But if it's a war
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: of attrition on money, you know that's going to favor
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: these big studios just kind of waiting it out to
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: get a deal that they think is reasoned well.
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  Speaker 2: And Disney has an added bonus that Netflix doesn't in
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  Speaker 2: the parks business, right.
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  Speaker 4: I mean I heard yesterday they get seventy percent.
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: Of their operating income operating income from the parks.
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  Speaker 1: That's the good news. The bad news is it's because
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: the other businesses have gone down so much, you.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: Know exactly the the movies in particular, I think have
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: really been hurting them.
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  Speaker 7: You're right, then, the parks businesses of rock Solid has
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  Speaker 7: always been the big franchises like I don't follow all
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  Speaker 7: the superhero movies, but that and Star Wars, uh and
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  Speaker 7: even Pixar.
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  Speaker 2: They just haven't been as successful as they as they
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: once were, have they?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and and so I mean that again. You know,
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  Speaker 3: the content is a part of the experiences that Disney sells,
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  Speaker 3: and so you know they have to look inward and say,
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  Speaker 3: you know, is this because consumers don't want to watch
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  Speaker 3: Star Wars anymore? Or is it because maybe we're not
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  Speaker 3: doing the greatest job and giving them what they want?
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  Speaker 3: Because if you give them what they want, they're going
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  Speaker 3: to watch. And so you know, it's it's it's I'm
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  Speaker 3: going to keep eating that drum. It's back to basics
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  Speaker 3: to grow this business.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Hey, Mark, give us a sense of kind of the
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: advertising market out there. You're so involved on a day
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  Speaker 1: to day basis, I can't imagine it's it's very good
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: because I mean, I'm just thinking the economics, the economic
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: environment is kind of uncertain here. What are you seeing
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  Speaker 1: out there just in terms of overall advertising.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so if you're if your performance advertiser, your Google,
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  Speaker 3: your meta you know metas up your over year even TikTok, Amazon,
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  Speaker 3: you know, companies in the performance space, you continue to
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  Speaker 3: do quite well. If you're in the brand advertising space,
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  Speaker 3: more of the big TV networks, they it's a bit
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  Speaker 3: up and down. It's just literally I think month to month,
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  Speaker 3: the budgets are going up, they're going down. So it's
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: not like this huge era growth right now. But it's
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: also not like a blood bath. I think that the
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: you know kind of retraction and spending on brand advertising
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: has already occurred and it's just a little less predictable.
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  Speaker 3: But overall, I think, you know, from everyone I talk
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: in the industry, my own experience at Mountain, it's, you know,
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: it's pretty it's relatively solid. Given the you know kind
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: of how much the economy and the and economic news
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  Speaker 3: are just constantly up and down. It's pretty consistent right now, all.
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  Speaker 1: Right, Mark great stuff is always Mark Doug As President
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: and CEO of Mountain, giving kind of hists on what
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: we saw from Disney and some of the streamers.
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  Speaker 8: You're listening to the team Ken's are live program Bloomberg
• 9:07
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• 9:09
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• 9:11
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• 9:14
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• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Makes a little m and a trade Today in the
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: luxury space. Tapestry again one of the worst names in
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: the business. They own the brands, including Coach and Kate Spade.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: They agreed to require Michael Core's parent Capri Holdings and
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: an eight point five billion dollar deal to bring it
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: down for us. Kritti Gupta, host of Bloomberg Surveillance Early Edition,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Pretty
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: big names here, Uh critie, what do you make of it?
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 9:41
  Speaker 10: I don't think Tapestry and Capri necessarily resonates with everyone.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: But when you hear the names Jimmy.
• 9:45
  Speaker 10: Choo Versachi, Kate Spade, Coach, perhaps some bells will ring
• 9:50
  Speaker 10: and look, these are the two parent companies that, frankly
• 9:52
  Speaker 10: have both been struggling. We know luxury. When you think luxury,
• 9:55
  Speaker 10: you don't think the US necessarily. You think you're PM luxury,
• 9:58
  Speaker 10: You think Rimez, you think Louis, et cetera. But it's
• 10:01
  Speaker 10: the same model that these folks are trying to basically
• 10:04
  Speaker 10: make in the US sphere. The problem is that the
• 10:06
  Speaker 10: appetite for luxury in the US is not the same
• 10:09
  Speaker 10: as it is in Europe or the Middle East or China.
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  Speaker 11: For example.
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  Speaker 1: Why I go down Fifth Avenue, go down Madison Avenue
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: and it seems like all the brands are there.
• 10:17
  Speaker 10: Sure that's not a representation of America, I gotta say.
• 10:19
  Speaker 10: And that's I think where the value get at him.
• 10:23
  Speaker 11: You got to go to Dallas, Texas.
• 10:24
  Speaker 10: I'm going to give you a tour, and I'm going
• 10:26
  Speaker 10: to show you what it's like to live in Middle America.
• 10:29
  Speaker 10: Forwarth America. Forwarth, Texas is great and one of the
• 10:32
  Speaker 10: fastest growing cities in the country, I should say, But.
• 10:34
  Speaker 11: Here's the point.
• 10:35
  Speaker 10: As you have this kind of wealth developing around the country,
• 10:38
  Speaker 10: you need more access to some of these brands. And
• 10:40
  Speaker 10: that's where Michael Cores the basically the founder of Capri Holdings,
• 10:44
  Speaker 10: and Michael Cours the brand comes in handy because one
• 10:46
  Speaker 10: of his major value ads is taking these really well
• 10:50
  Speaker 10: known names Jimmy chou versace, et cetera, and making them
• 10:53
  Speaker 10: more accessible to mainstream Americans by lowering down the price point,
• 10:57
  Speaker 10: increasing the manufacturing. It's no longer an elite exclusive thing
• 11:00
  Speaker 10: to get a pair of Jimmy Chow's shoes. Sure, it's inventive,
• 11:03
  Speaker 10: it is. It's expensive, how much as expensive as they were?
• 11:06
  Speaker 10: I think a pair goes around for like seven hundred dollars.
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: Okay, that's luxury, hold on, that's exclusive.
• 11:11
  Speaker 10: It is one hundred percent, but it's not as expensive
• 11:13
  Speaker 10: as like, say the two thousand they used to go for.
• 11:16
  Speaker 10: That's the point before the acquisition. So the price point
• 11:18
  Speaker 10: has actually come down and become more attainable. And if
• 11:21
  Speaker 10: you go to any mall in America, there is a
• 11:23
  Speaker 10: Michael Core store there.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Yes, that's not normal for a luxury Michael Cores. But
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: can you buy Jimmy Chew's shoes also at any mall
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: in America?
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: No?
• 11:30
  Speaker 11: But okay, they're heading in that direction. We are, we were.
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: And we have your no idea.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: Ohio, I am, but I'm not shopping for Michael Cores
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: or Jimmy Chew.
• 11:41
  Speaker 10: In fact, you will soon now that your girl dad.
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: Well, we were trying to make the distinction between you know,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: something like Coach, which I don't think they would define
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: themselves as a luxury uh product maker, and something like
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: Versace and they definitely would describe themselves as luxury.
• 11:58
  Speaker 10: Yeah, well used to be and they used to This
• 12:02
  Speaker 10: is I think the point they used to be they
• 12:03
  Speaker 10: thought of as a luxury brand. I'll give you another example
• 12:06
  Speaker 10: with Coach, although they make seventy percent of tapestries revenue.
• 12:09
  Speaker 10: You have Stuart Whitzman and Kate Spade. When do you
• 12:11
  Speaker 10: think Stuart Whitesman do you think luxury?
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: I don't know who's Stuart Whitesman.
• 12:14
  Speaker 10: Oh my god, you're killing me. I'm in a studio
• 12:17
  Speaker 10: full of guys. This isn't fair.
• 12:18
  Speaker 11: I can't make my point.
• 12:19
  Speaker 10: But Kate Spade, Come on, okay, Kate's Spade is luxury.
• 12:23
  Speaker 12: Yet.
• 12:23
  Speaker 10: Now, if you go to any mall in America, you
• 12:25
  Speaker 10: can find Kate's Bade. If you go to a thirty
• 12:28
  Speaker 10: Rock or Rockefeller Plaza, there's Kate's bad.
• 12:30
  Speaker 11: Same thing with Sarrovski.
• 12:31
  Speaker 10: There are these names that used to be very elite
• 12:33
  Speaker 10: very expensive that are now far more accessible, far more
• 12:37
  Speaker 10: household names. And that's because of this kind of move that.
• 12:41
  Speaker 11: Tapestry and Kate's bade. I know, Caprie Holdings well done.
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: The thing is what you're right, You're right about that, right,
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: because Kate Spade coach Michael Core's, these are things that
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: are all in the mall, and not just the mall
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: in the middle of Manhattan, one of the most expensive
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: cities in the world. But I'm all in the middle
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: of Columbus, Ohio, which is where I tend to go
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: to mall's exactly. So, but those things they go down
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: market in order to get mass market, right, right.
• 13:06
  Speaker 10: But that's the value add That's what Michael Core's has
• 13:08
  Speaker 10: done with a lot of these brands. And that's one
• 13:09
  Speaker 10: of his criticisms as well. For the folks who are
• 13:11
  Speaker 10: very high fashion. They're saying, look, you're cheapening the brand
• 13:14
  Speaker 10: by making it so accessible mainstream. But then if you
• 13:16
  Speaker 10: look at the profit and the turnover, well, the top
• 13:19
  Speaker 10: line growth for some of these companies that they're acquiring
• 13:21
  Speaker 10: is immense because all of a sudden you're accessing people
• 13:24
  Speaker 10: in I don't know, Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Texas that you
• 13:28
  Speaker 10: wouldn't have ordinarily, and that's a really big deal.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Is there a consolidation wave going on in the luxury
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: space and if so, why There.
• 13:35
  Speaker 10: Definitely is, and it's simply because one in the US specifically,
• 13:39
  Speaker 10: I think it's going a bit faster than it is
• 13:41
  Speaker 10: in the likes of Europe, for example. But the wave
• 13:44
  Speaker 10: of consolidation in the US is largely driven by trying
• 13:46
  Speaker 10: to apply the European model to the US and it
• 13:49
  Speaker 10: not really working. So you have seen Tapestry and capre
• 13:52
  Speaker 10: Holdings separately, their stock has been tanking. These are companies
• 13:55
  Speaker 10: that have been struggling relative to some of their international peers.
• 13:59
  Speaker 11: But you're also that wave of consolidation in Europe.
• 14:02
  Speaker 10: You're seeing in some of the Middle Eastern brands as well,
• 14:03
  Speaker 10: because the Chinese consumer, which has been driving a lot
• 14:07
  Speaker 10: of the luxury buying, has been slowing do well.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: That's why the news coming out of China, which is
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: they're basically going to let the people move about go
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: anywhere they want, So that's going to presumably help Chinese
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: outgoing tourism outside of China, outside of Macau, where they've
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: generally been going to Europe to the US, and I
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: hope to see our Chinese shoppers on Fifth Avenue on
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Madison Avenue like we used to pre pandemic. Those folks
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: have money and they like to spend on the luxury brands.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: And I know the stores that are again on Fifth Avenue,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Madison Avenue. They depend on those and.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: I hope they're not buying as much or with as
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: much money as they had been in the past, because
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: they drove the price of some of the products that
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: I like way up. For example, Rolex watches on the
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: secondhand market, those prices were far higher. I'm talking two x,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: three x four x of manufacturing suggested retail price, and
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: they finally, I have been coming back down high end
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: watch prices. And when I saw that story this morning,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: the first thing I thought is, oh no.
• 15:06
  Speaker 9: Well.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: The first thing I thought was Sam Fizzelli, my wine
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: expert and it also covers pharmaceuticals for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: a big wine guy. He lives in London and lives
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: in France. Big wine guy. He was just explaining to
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: me over the last you know, ten years, how the
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Chinese have just really rocked the wine market and pushed prices,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: particularly for fine, French wines way higher, but they've been
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: out of the market.
• 15:27
  Speaker 10: Yeah, it's funny how we talk about the Chinese consumer
• 15:29
  Speaker 10: almost like we talked about the American consumer. I mean,
• 15:31
  Speaker 10: of course, the US spending power is still significantly higher,
• 15:34
  Speaker 10: but now we actually have to worry about not just
• 15:36
  Speaker 10: Chinese exports but Chinese imports as well, which I think
• 15:39
  Speaker 10: really really speaks to the strength of the country as well.
• 15:42
  Speaker 10: And to your point on that headline, you saw the
• 15:44
  Speaker 10: European brand specifically, like the Richemont for example, all rally
• 15:48
  Speaker 10: this morning in the European session, so.
• 15:50
  Speaker 11: A massive move there.
• 15:51
  Speaker 10: And I also add, I mean we're talking about China
• 15:52
  Speaker 10: in the US, but I really think the Middle East
• 15:54
  Speaker 10: is worth thinking about as well, because if you go
• 15:56
  Speaker 10: to London, you go to what's the high Street London.
• 16:01
  Speaker 11: I should know this.
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: I mean, I like the King's Road Kensington.
• 16:03
  Speaker 10: If you go to like anywhere in Kensington or Chelsea
• 16:05
  Speaker 10: or whatever, there's so many Middle Eastern people from the
• 16:08
  Speaker 10: Middle Eastern shoppers.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: And the cars they have, yeah, are pretty cool. So
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at Tapes Street. The stocks down eleven and
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: a half percent, so I guess the market doesn't like
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: I say, paid a big premium here.
• 16:16
  Speaker 10: Yeah, it's like a sixty five percent premium, and.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Not that the market's not in it for Tap Street,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: so maybe a dilution concern there for those Oxford streets.
• 16:25
  Speaker 11: Oxford Street is another one.
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: There are a number of high streets in London.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: And it's funny to hear that question from you because
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: the term high street, I think, is a British term, right,
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: And you're going to be moving to London soon, I am,
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: So you'll be walking up and down Oxford Street.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Youre going to acquire a little bit of an accent,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: do you think.
• 16:43
  Speaker 11: No, I'm gonna go over. I'm gonna start saying y'all.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: And I was gonna say, she's from Dallas and she
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: doesn't have an accent from there.
• 16:49
  Speaker 11: So well, that took work, you know, I had to.
• 16:52
  Speaker 10: I went to UVA and the first thing they asked
• 16:54
  Speaker 10: me was did you drive horses to school and Dallas?
• 16:56
  Speaker 10: And I said no, But why would you think? Then
• 16:59
  Speaker 10: they said, because you say you'll every second word.
• 17:01
  Speaker 11: That was the end of it.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Sometimes, you know, even in Virginia, go to southern Virginia, it's.
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: To embrace y'all, To be honest, have you.
• 17:07
  Speaker 11: It's a very useful word as opposed to.
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: Oh well, don't ruin it. Oh oh it's a secret.
• 17:15
  Speaker 10: Oh never mind, where Matt plans all my spares? He
• 17:18
  Speaker 10: throw me a little birthday spare.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: When are you going through? That was the end of
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the end of August of August.
• 17:24
  Speaker 11: Oh, anyone want to come over and pack because.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: It's fun, That's right? Okay, all right, So pritty Gupta
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: with the reporting here today, A little M and a
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: trade in the luxury tapestry buying capri.
• 17:36
  Speaker 8: You're listening to the tape catch are Live program Bloomberg
• 17:40
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• 17:43
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• 17:45
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• 17:46
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• 17:49
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• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Let's put this in the context. Lydia Bosor can do that.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: She's a senior economist at e Why Parthenon and she
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: joins us here, Lydia, what's your take here as you
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: dig into some of the inflation data we got today?
• 18:09
  Speaker 5: Sure, I mean the report was encouraging. We saw that
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: back to back, the smallest back to back increasing in
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: core inflation. As you mentioned, since early twenty twenty one.
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: We also look at those three months annual life train
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: for both headline and core inflation, and here as well,
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: we saw a significant slowdown. If we dig a little
• 18:30
  Speaker 5: deeper in the component, we are seeing that these inflation
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: in use car prices which declined in July, and we
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: think that there is more than more pressure coming. And
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: on the housing front, we have also seen a turn
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: in housing inflation and we're starting to see also some
• 18:45
  Speaker 5: gradual disinflation. So overall, I think it's one more step
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: in the right direction when it comes to inflation.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: Can you look at, for example, car prices coming down.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: Can you look at the credit that being given out
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: for those kind of loans to help you forecast what's coming,
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: because I noticed that non revolving credit actually jumped quite
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: a bit last month after stagnating for a few months,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: and a huge part of that was car loans. You know,
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: My concern, LYDIA is that these numbers bounce back as
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: the economy continues to do so well they do.
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: I think what we've seen in the auto sector has
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: been quite unique. We still have this imbalance between the
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: supply and the man and that has created some volatility
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: in the sector. So I think, you know, when we
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: look at auction prices, they tend to lead uscalu prices
• 19:35
  Speaker 5: in the CPI, So I think that we're likely to
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: see more downward pressure, but there's likely to be some
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: volatility as well, as you're pointing out.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: All right Lydia. Given what we see on inflation coming down,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: the FED appears to be standing pat maybe one more
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: rate increase. How do you put that on the context
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: with an economic outlook?
• 19:57
  Speaker 9: Here?
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Are you guys thinking that there is a recession in
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: the near term? I mean, I know what recession is
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: going to come at some point, but are you in
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: the campus as it's near term or can we put
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: this on the on the back burner a little bit sure?
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: In terms of inflation, we're I think we're heading in
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: the right direction. I think the Fed, we look at
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: these numbers, as you know, some convincing progress. I when
• 20:20
  Speaker 5: we look at the economic outlook at the same time,
• 20:22
  Speaker 5: we've seen some economic resilience, but we do expect to
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: see softer economic momentum in the second half of the year.
• 20:29
  Speaker 5: So if you look at economic growth. We are anticipating
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: to see growth, you know, flirting with with essentially zero
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: heading into twenty twenty four. And at the same time,
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: inflation is also likely to remain in that in that
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: this inflation trend and overall that should make the FED,
• 20:47
  Speaker 5: you know, comfortable enough to stay on the on the sidelines.
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: And we do think that the FED has reached the
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: end of its hiking cycle and that the July ry
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: type was.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: The last one, even if we don't see core inflation
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: continued come down. I mean, everyone's kind of taking a
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: victory lap today, but it's still CPI minus food and
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: energy year over year four point seven percent. That's more
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: than twice as much as the FED wants it to be.
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: So don't they need to at least be seen putting
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: some pressure on actively driving it down until it gets
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: to two?
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: Yes, that's right.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: The Fed will be very careful.
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: I think that if they do pose in September, they
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: will retain a Hockeish bias and they will keep the
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: door open to further tightening if the data justifies it.
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: The FED is really data dependent. We're going to get
• 21:41
  Speaker 5: another CPI report in August. We're likely to see some
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: renewed the poor pressure on headline inflation. We're also seeing
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: oil prices rise again and that's potentially likely to lift
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: headline inflation as well. But we do think that core
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: inflation will continue to ease a further towards the end
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: of the year. There's a lot of this inflation baked
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: in on the housing front and that's likely to pull
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: down course services inflation, and the FED will be looking
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: at that as some you know, some progress towards getting
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: inflation back to their target LYDIA.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: So we've got it. Seems like inflation is you know,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: trending in the right direction here in the US, but
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: how about Europe. It just seems so much more entrenched there,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: particularly in the UK. What do you expect the central
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: banks across Europe to do?
• 22:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think in Europe we're seeing infliction dynamics that
• 22:34
  Speaker 5: are still elevated, but we've also started to see some progress.
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: We're seeing very tight label market conditions in Europe and
• 22:43
  Speaker 5: that's one factor behind you know, the resilience of inflation
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: as as we look as we look ahead, I think
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: we've seen that slow down in the pace of tightening
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: also in Europe and They're likely also to reach the
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: end of their titanic cycle this year. I think when
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: we look at at the FED, it's a little ahead
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: in the cycle. As I said, we're probably at the
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: end of the of the hiking cycle. And we do
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: see the FED cutting interest rates likely in March, not
• 23:13
  Speaker 5: before March, but likely next year as they start with
• 23:16
  Speaker 5: calibrating policy.
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: All right, So, uh, the economy.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: The economic picture though is different for Europe, right, I mean,
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: here we're looking at still more than two percent GDP
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: growth and over there they're already stagnating.
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: Do they hit a recession?
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: There is a high chance I think that that, you know,
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: we could see some recessions in in Europe. We are
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: likely to see i think, across most advanced economies economic
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: growth you know, flirting with full speed growth essentially this
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: this year. And so I think that really when we
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: look at global growth, Europe, US and are likely to
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: be those economies slowing down growth and we're likely to
• 24:02
  Speaker 5: see you know, global growth slowing this year and then
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: gradually rebound into twenty twenty four.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: LYDIA thirty seconds. What's your economic what's your labor forecast?
• 24:13
  Speaker 7: Here?
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, is we're going to see unemployment go above
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: four percent anytime soon.
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: Yes, we do have you know, a further softening in
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: the label market. We think that this gradual rebalancing that
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: we have started to see will continue. So we expect
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: to see a gradual rise in the unemployment rate towards
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: you know, for a little bout four percent by the
• 24:35
  Speaker 5: middle of the next year. And that's going to reflect
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: the fact that labor demand is going to cool further.
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: We're already we're already seeing that happening and hiring slow
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: down further, as well as we have your software demand
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: and softer economic conditions taking in in the economy.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: All right, Lydia, that's really really helpful. We really appreciate
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: checking in with you, Lydia Bosour Senior economists e Hy
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Partha I is the firm.
• 25:02
  Speaker 8: You're listening to the team Ken's her live program Bloomberg
• 25:05
  Speaker 8: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
• 25:08
  Speaker 8: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen
• 25:12
  Speaker 8: on demand wherever you get your podcast.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: All right, the markets like what they saw from the
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: inflation print today, Let's check with somebody who actually does
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: this stuff for living a deal Zaman. He's a partner
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: for Wall Street Alliance joint us live here in a
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive broker studio a deal. I like the print today.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: Matt thinks inflation is still too high. I'm a friend
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: of the trend. I like the trends coming down. That's
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: what I'm focusing on. How did you view the CPI
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: print today and how does an impact kind of how
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: you're thinking about these markets?
• 25:40
  Speaker 13: So great to be with you. So we were very
• 25:42
  Speaker 13: positive on this print, and you know the FED vasion
• 25:45
  Speaker 13: of war against the forty year high inflation by raising
• 25:48
  Speaker 13: interest rates to a twenty two year high. And it's
• 25:51
  Speaker 13: clear that the Fed has won this war right. Inflation
• 25:54
  Speaker 13: has come down from around nine percent down to around
• 25:57
  Speaker 13: three point two percent. I think this is construct for
• 26:00
  Speaker 13: the equity markets in the long term.
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: Is there are you not concerned that there's a chance
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: it comes back.
• 26:08
  Speaker 13: Well, what we think is that from this point onwards,
• 26:12
  Speaker 13: the inflation will most likely start to cool off on
• 26:15
  Speaker 13: its own, because even if you look at the unemployment rate,
• 26:18
  Speaker 13: we think that it is understated right now because a
• 26:21
  Speaker 13: lot of the layoffs have been in the tech space
• 26:23
  Speaker 13: and a lot of those workers are high earners, so
• 26:25
  Speaker 13: they're not necessarily claiming unemployment benefits. And also, you know,
• 26:29
  Speaker 13: the FED is going to be very careful about not
• 26:32
  Speaker 13: damaging the unemployment rate too much in this politically charged environment.
• 26:36
  Speaker 13: So we think it's going to start to cool off
• 26:38
  Speaker 13: on its own from this point onwards.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: I just saw total consumer credit rose seventeen point eight
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: billion dollars last month. There was a small monthly increase before,
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: so credit had kind of stagnated, but now it's come
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: roaring back, especially student loans and auto loans. And you know,
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: if people are able to weather seven or eight percent
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: auto loans and are still willing to go pay these
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: incredibly high prices for vehicles, I feel like, you know,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: they could push inflation higher, they could bounce it back.
• 27:12
  Speaker 9: Up fair point.
• 27:14
  Speaker 13: But I also feel that, you know that at some point,
• 27:17
  Speaker 13: this excess savings that people have from the pandemic, they're
• 27:22
  Speaker 13: going to run out of it. And when they run
• 27:24
  Speaker 13: out of it, you know, they'll start cutting back on
• 27:26
  Speaker 13: some of the services. Right, So they'll start they'll stop
• 27:28
  Speaker 13: going to Bloomingdale's and they'll start going to Costco. Right,
• 27:32
  Speaker 13: so they'll they'll become more budget conscious. And I think
• 27:34
  Speaker 13: that will also start to bring inflation down, and the
• 27:37
  Speaker 13: data is supporting that.
• 27:38
  Speaker 9: All right.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: So given that backdrop, a deal of a benign inflation outlook,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: still decent economic growth, although slower than what we've seen.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: What do you do here? Are you equities? Fixed income?
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: Where do you start?
• 27:53
  Speaker 13: Well, fixed income is also very attractive overhead, but if
• 27:57
  Speaker 13: we take a longer term point of view, I think
• 27:59
  Speaker 13: equities is where you get the most bang for your buck.
• 28:02
  Speaker 13: We are of the school of thought that we think
• 28:04
  Speaker 13: in the short term you're going to get a correction
• 28:06
  Speaker 13: in the market because seasonally this is a week period
• 28:09
  Speaker 13: of the year. So on the equity side, we would
• 28:12
  Speaker 13: be looking at opportunities on a pullback. The two parts
• 28:16
  Speaker 13: of the market that we like over here is the
• 28:18
  Speaker 13: high quality momentum areas and then the less love stocks
• 28:22
  Speaker 13: that haven't participated in the rally so far, So we
• 28:25
  Speaker 13: would be looking at opportunistically on those areas on a pullback.
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: All right. So that means is that the Metas of
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: the world, the Googles of the world, the Amazons, you look,
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: you buy them on a pullback or kind of what's
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: that first group for you?
• 28:37
  Speaker 13: Yes, So that would be certainly that's one group of stocks.
• 28:40
  Speaker 13: The stocks on our watch list, for example, Apple and Meta.
• 28:43
  Speaker 13: You know, Apple just came out with the earnings. The
• 28:45
  Speaker 13: street did not like it because the iPhone sales went down,
• 28:49
  Speaker 13: but we actually saw strength over there because we saw
• 28:52
  Speaker 13: their service business grow, which is, you know, the profit
• 28:55
  Speaker 13: margins almost double that of the product business. So those
• 28:58
  Speaker 13: are the type of areas that we'd be very interested
• 29:00
  Speaker 13: in on a pullback.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: What do you think about I mean rates at this level,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: you're going to want to lock those in. Don't you
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: think that a lot of people are going to want
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: to lock in four year, four percent, ten years.
• 29:13
  Speaker 13: Yes, Actually, we have a lot of clients that have
• 29:17
  Speaker 13: cash that are looking to lock in good rates. So
• 29:19
  Speaker 13: certainly I think that's in the short term that is
• 29:22
  Speaker 13: going to be a headwind in the market, But I
• 29:25
  Speaker 13: think that in the long term you get better risk
• 29:28
  Speaker 13: adjusted returns on the equities.
• 29:30
  Speaker 9: All right.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: So, I mean Matt's been overweight, you know those Magnificent seven.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: Me not so much. So if I'm looking for this
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: market to kind of broaden out a little bit, because
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: I think I need to see that for just the
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: health of the market. If I don't own the magnificent seven.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: If I don't want to go chase those things, where
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: do I go?
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: Or should I take profits and get in.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: You let it ride, just let it ride.
• 29:52
  Speaker 13: Well, I agree with you completely like that. If you
• 29:55
  Speaker 13: look at the I SNP five hundred up until the
• 29:57
  Speaker 13: end of last month, it was up about nineteen point
• 29:59
  Speaker 13: six percent. You look at the equal weight index, it
• 30:01
  Speaker 13: was up about nine point six percent. So I would
• 30:04
  Speaker 13: be looking at some of the less love stocks like
• 30:06
  Speaker 13: for example, another stock on our watch list is home Depot. Right,
• 30:10
  Speaker 13: so home Depot did really well during the pandemic because
• 30:12
  Speaker 13: we were trapped in our homes and we just wanted
• 30:14
  Speaker 13: to improve our living experience. Since then, the demand has subsided,
• 30:18
  Speaker 13: but we still see a great long term potential because
• 30:21
  Speaker 13: in the US we have a housing shortage and people
• 30:23
  Speaker 13: do have to upgrade their homes, which benefits a company
• 30:26
  Speaker 13: like home Depot.
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: And you own home Depot, you also own Apple. I
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: feel like the market has soured a bit.
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: Well, clearly they've come down below the three trillion dollar
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: value and we see iPhone sales stagnating.
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: Why do you own Apple longer term?
• 30:44
  Speaker 13: So we think that you know the service business, there's
• 30:47
  Speaker 13: a lot of strength over there, so we like that.
• 30:50
  Speaker 13: And then also we think that the iPhone fifteen release
• 30:53
  Speaker 13: could be a significant upgrade. You know, the quality of
• 30:56
  Speaker 13: our phones are improving, so we are holding onto our
• 30:59
  Speaker 13: phones longer before we upgrading it. So I think this
• 31:02
  Speaker 13: upcoming release of iPhone fifteen could be a good catalyst.
• 31:05
  Speaker 13: So and company pays are good dividend.
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: So I just don't know what's going to change.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: The phones that Paul and I have are already capable
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: of everything we need to do.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: I got an iPhone eleven. Yeah, that's what I got.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: I might upgrade, though, I'm going to take you to
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: task on this apple. Every time I see Tim Cook,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: I say you got to raise your dividend. You've got
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: to dive it in less than one percent, man, up
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: go to three percent, three and a half percent. Are
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: you surprised that they don't do that? With all the
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: cash they have on the bouncey, all the free cash
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: flow they have, I think that they should raise their dividend.
• 31:33
  Speaker 13: Well yeah, I mean they're they're entering into a different
• 31:36
  Speaker 13: phase of the business, and I think they are doing
• 31:39
  Speaker 13: great with the share buybacks, and I think, you know,
• 31:42
  Speaker 13: I think they have a lot more going on for
• 31:44
  Speaker 13: them in other areas which they want to keep their
• 31:46
  Speaker 13: cash to take advantage of.
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: How about energy, you know, there's a sector that for
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: a decade nobody cared about because you know, it was
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: peak oil and we're all going green. And then it's
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: had a nice couple three years here, uh, and now
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: we've got WTI oil, you know, back up at almost
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: eighty four dollars a barrel. Do you guys traffic in
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: the energy space at all?
• 32:06
  Speaker 13: We actually, you know, we actually think oil is headed
• 32:08
  Speaker 13: higher because yeah, because you know the demand for oil
• 32:12
  Speaker 13: as the global economies grow, the demand for oil is
• 32:15
  Speaker 13: going to continue to increase, and OPEK is going to
• 32:17
  Speaker 13: continue to limit production and the transition of it from
• 32:20
  Speaker 13: fossil fuels is going to take a lot of time.
• 32:23
  Speaker 13: So we actually think that the oil inflation is here
• 32:26
  Speaker 13: to stay and that will keep going higher. And that
• 32:28
  Speaker 13: benefits some of the larger oil players because their break
• 32:31
  Speaker 13: even on oil is very low, and get oil at
• 32:34
  Speaker 13: one hundred dollars a barrel, they are making a killing
• 32:36
  Speaker 13: a deal.
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: Does China play into your investment thesis?
• 32:40
  Speaker 13: Certainly, China is a major player, and you know it
• 32:43
  Speaker 13: does have an impact but we find opportunities more domestically
• 32:47
  Speaker 13: in the United States, you know, and especially I.
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: Just mean in that day.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: You know, their economy supports rising prices of oil if
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: it does well.
• 32:55
  Speaker 13: Yes, so China is definitely a key player there. Global economies.
• 32:58
  Speaker 13: India is a key player, and the US also, you know,
• 33:01
  Speaker 13: the US economy is improving, so that's also increasing the
• 33:04
  Speaker 13: demand for oil. So definitely, we really like some of
• 33:07
  Speaker 13: the larger oil companies that benefit from that.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Thirty seconds, what are you staying away from here?
• 33:14
  Speaker 9: So?
• 33:14
  Speaker 13: You know, I think that there's a lot of quality
• 33:17
  Speaker 13: investments right now that you can take advantage of. So
• 33:20
  Speaker 13: I would stay away from the high risk, qualatile meme
• 33:24
  Speaker 13: type of investments and just focus more on quality and
• 33:27
  Speaker 13: look at it in pullbacks. And like you said, fixed
• 33:30
  Speaker 13: income is giving you also an opportunity of a lifetime.
• 33:33
  Speaker 13: You know, one year T bill you're looking at close
• 33:35
  Speaker 13: to five percent. You've never seen that in a long time.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just amazing. I know people that just roll
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: those things over all the time. A deal Zaman, he's
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: a partner at Wall Street Alliance. We appreciate coming in here.
• 33:46
  Speaker 8: You're listening to the tape Cancer Live program Bloomberg Markets
• 33:50
  Speaker 8: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune
• 33:54
  Speaker 8: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.
• 33:55
  Speaker 9: The Bloomberg Business App.
• 33:57
  Speaker 8: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
• 33:59
  Speaker 8: Play New York station just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven.
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: Hannah Elliott is going to join us right now. She's
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: there from Los Angeles. She is prepping for getting ready
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: for this great Pebble Beach concourse, concourse to elegance. You've
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: been there a few times, there have never you've got
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: to ever been for you, And it's like everybody I
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: talk to is.
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: Like, oh, how can you not go to that?
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: I just haven't really ever had time or been allowed
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: by my boss. But Hannah is like, it's her job,
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: so she joins us now. Also, I think preparing to
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: drive a couple of sweet aston Martin's. Hannah talk to
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: us first about the concourse elegance, and I saw your
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: story about they're building a big barn for some old ferraris,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: What's what's that all about?
• 34:52
  Speaker 14: I It's honestly so exciting and cool. I'm really excited.
• 34:55
  Speaker 14: I've got I've gone for many years and this is
• 34:58
  Speaker 14: the most excited. I've been for a while about a
• 35:00
  Speaker 14: bunch of old, rusted out, completely derelic Ferraris that are
• 35:05
  Speaker 14: for cell R. M. Sotheby's. The auction house built a
• 35:09
  Speaker 14: barn displayed to recreate the way that these twenty Ferraris
• 35:12
  Speaker 14: were found in Florida after a hurricane. They might you
• 35:17
  Speaker 14: might remember two thousand and four we saw some pictures
• 35:19
  Speaker 14: of a bunch of ferraris completely demolished after a hurricane.
• 35:23
  Speaker 14: Now we have the Ferraris foresell. They've reappeared, and they're
• 35:28
  Speaker 14: actually owned by a very eccentric man you might remember
• 35:32
  Speaker 14: named Walter Medlin, who's got quite a colorful history back
• 35:36
  Speaker 14: to the nineteen seventies or so. But they're gonna these
• 35:40
  Speaker 14: Ferraris are gonna go big, even though they're all twisted
• 35:43
  Speaker 14: and completely rusted out.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Talk to us about the Concourse delegons, What is it
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: and who goes there? Tell us about why it's so,
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: especially in the world of high end automobiles.
• 35:54
  Speaker 14: Okay, well, Concord Delegons is a really snooty way to
• 35:57
  Speaker 14: say a car show, yep. And what it is is
• 35:59
  Speaker 14: a bunch of really nice, very well washed and detailed
• 36:03
  Speaker 14: cars parked on a putting green and a fair way
• 36:07
  Speaker 14: of golf course.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: And anue in Carmel by the Sea exactly.
• 36:13
  Speaker 14: It's it's actually on the Pebble Beach Car golf course,
• 36:18
  Speaker 14: and there is a set amount of cars that are judged,
• 36:22
  Speaker 14: of course, you know this Q tip white glove type judging.
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: But then also.
• 36:27
  Speaker 14: Throughout the week there are auctions, there are other car shows.
• 36:31
  Speaker 14: You know, thousands and thousands of people come. There's kind
• 36:33
  Speaker 14: of something for everybody. There will be car shows just
• 36:36
  Speaker 14: for muscle cars, or just for Porsches, or just for
• 36:40
  Speaker 14: I don't know, old trucks from the seventies. It's really fun.
• 36:43
  Speaker 14: But yes, to your point, the big climax of the
• 36:46
  Speaker 14: week is Sunday's Concord Delegans, the car show on the
• 36:50
  Speaker 14: Pebble Beach golf course.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just extraordinary. I mean this is big business, Hannah, right.
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: I mean I see stories on some of those cars
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: that get bought and sold during the week, and particularly
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: on Sunday, some huge numbers. Shit, there's real investment here.
• 37:03
  Speaker 14: Yeah, this is kind of like art collecting in a way.
• 37:06
  Speaker 14: We're talking about blue chip collectibles here. So the most
• 37:11
  Speaker 14: expensive and rare vehicles in the world are bought, showed, shown,
• 37:16
  Speaker 14: and displayed. Certainly the auction houses will see easily over
• 37:20
  Speaker 14: one hundred million dollars in sales just over the weekend,
• 37:23
  Speaker 14: all told through a three or four days of auctions.
• 37:26
  Speaker 14: But you know, you have things that you know there
• 37:28
  Speaker 14: might be two or three of them in the world.
• 37:30
  Speaker 14: Some of the racing Ferraris, of course, we remember the
• 37:33
  Speaker 14: three hundred sl goal wings, the Mercedes with the doors
• 37:36
  Speaker 14: that raise up a like a goal wing, so really
• 37:40
  Speaker 14: iconic cars. This is the most prestigious car of it, really,
• 37:44
  Speaker 14: certainly in North America. Maybe in the world. You could
• 37:46
  Speaker 14: say there might be a few in Italy that compare,
• 37:48
  Speaker 14: but this really is if you want to see blue
• 37:51
  Speaker 14: chip cars and the best of the best and the
• 37:54
  Speaker 14: rarest this is where you go.
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: We're showing some of the derelict Ferraris here for those
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: people watching on YouTube or streaming us on Bloomberg dot com.
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: Some of them look like they're in pretty fantastic shape.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: Others look like they're about to fall apart from all
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: the rust, but they're still expected. Even the one that Hannah,
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: you know, the one that's completely crumpled and doesn't have
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: a roof or maybe even wheels, even that is going
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: to go for hundreds of thousands of dollars.
• 38:26
  Speaker 14: Yeah, you know, barn finds are very interesting things from
• 38:31
  Speaker 14: what I hear the guys that I talk to. Really,
• 38:33
  Speaker 14: if you're concerned about money, it's better to just buy
• 38:37
  Speaker 14: the car already done. These are not especially at this point.
• 38:43
  Speaker 14: You know, you're you're gonna spend a lot of money
• 38:45
  Speaker 14: to bring them back, maybe even more than you'd spend
• 38:48
  Speaker 14: on a similar car that's already done. So it's really
• 38:51
  Speaker 14: at this point it's about the story. It's about the journey.
• 38:54
  Speaker 14: The people who buy, you know, these twisted crumple cars
• 38:59
  Speaker 14: are people who love the painful relationship of what it
• 39:04
  Speaker 14: takes to bring a car back to life.
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: Let me ask about a new car, and that is
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: the dB twelve. You've already driven the car somewhere else
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: besides America, but you're also going to get some seat
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: time in a couple of Aston Martin's coming up. What's
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: the story with this company, where it is and what
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: it's producing.
• 39:22
  Speaker 14: You know, Aston Martin is really fascinating this year for
• 39:27
  Speaker 14: a number of reasons. We know that they've really struggled
• 39:31
  Speaker 14: since their IPO in twenty eighteen. But they've got a
• 39:34
  Speaker 14: very dynamic owner and Lawrence Stroll, and of course Aston
• 39:37
  Speaker 14: Martin is doing fantastic in Formula One right now, which
• 39:41
  Speaker 14: helps a lot at least from public perception and probably
• 39:44
  Speaker 14: fundraising too. Of course, Lawrence Stroll's son is a race
• 39:47
  Speaker 14: car driver as well, so there's a lot of talk
• 39:50
  Speaker 14: about Aston Martin. And then when they bring in the
• 39:53
  Speaker 14: dB twelve, which is a successor to the dB eleven,
• 39:56
  Speaker 14: excellent vehicle. They've got the DBX sub seven. I think
• 40:01
  Speaker 14: I'll be in during Monterey fantastic suv. I actually think
• 40:04
  Speaker 14: you could cross shop it against the Lamborghini Urus perhaps,
• 40:09
  Speaker 14: and you could throw in the Ferrari Pro song Wet
• 40:11
  Speaker 14: as well if you wanted. So they're making really competitive products,
• 40:15
  Speaker 14: but also they have really it's been tough. You know,
• 40:18
  Speaker 14: they faced liquidity issues. There's been a lot of UH
• 40:24
  Speaker 14: there's been a lot of financial UH turnover and executive turnover.
• 40:28
  Speaker 14: Now we also know that they're tied in with Lucid,
• 40:31
  Speaker 14: so there's just a lot going on at Acid Martin.
• 40:34
  Speaker 14: It's a really exciting time and I am looking forward
• 40:37
  Speaker 14: to having some time with their executives to get the latest.
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: All right, Hannah, great stuff, Enjoy Carmel, Enjoy Pebble Beach.
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Maybe get a little veal at Ilfrenile on a corner
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: of Ocean Avenue there in Carmel by the Sea, Hannah Ls,
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: staff writer for Bloomberg Business Week. Man, we got to
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: get you there, dude, I someday, uh and get you
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: go for multiple days, and as Hannah was saying, all
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: around the bay, the Monterey Bay area, including Monterey out
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: out near Salinas, all over the Monterey Bay area. Each
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: day there'll be different shows, and you know it's not
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: just there. So it's just amazing that it culminates on Sunday.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, the next best thing for me is just
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: having Hannah cover it, because then I read all of
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: her coverage and get deep in it. So I feel
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: like if she's out there writing about it, maybe creating
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: some video content as well, that's good enough for me
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: for now.
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: And then one day when I retire.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: Maybe no, please, you can go out there. I'll make
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: it happen. Don't worry. I know a couple of.
• 41:30
  Speaker 8: People you're listening to the tape Cat's are Live program
• 41:34
  Speaker 8: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,
• 41:38
  Speaker 8: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg
• 41:40
  Speaker 8: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa
• 41:44
  Speaker 8: from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play
• 41:47
  Speaker 8: Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Matt Miller, Paul Sweeney here live in the Bloomberg Interactive
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Broker Studio. We are streaming on that YouTube thing. To
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: go over there and just search Bloomberglobal News and now
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: I'll bring it to the video feed. How fun is that?
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: More global news, bloomerglob You've got to put in the
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: phrase Bloomberg global news. I'm just saying, like I have
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: searched and searched I YouTube and I can't find it.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: But for some reason, that's a magical phrase, Bloomberg Global News.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, I don't know what's crazy. I
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: learned that from Carol Masser, you know, because they've been
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: streaming Bloomberg Business Week for a long time. So she
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: taught me. Well there, so all right, looking at the
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: markets here, up four tens to one percent on the
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: S and P five hundred, let's se where the action
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: is under the hood. Billy Lipscholtz. He covers the markets
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News. Joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Broker studio. Billy, what are you looking at?
• 42:35
  Speaker 9: Yeah?
• 42:36
  Speaker 12: Still seeing quite a bit of weakness for Tapestry after
• 42:39
  Speaker 12: the deal to acquire I'm sorry, Yeah, the deal to
• 42:44
  Speaker 12: acquire Capri and an eight and a half billion dollar deal.
• 42:47
  Speaker 12: Tapestry down thirteen percent, worse performer in the five hundred.
• 42:50
  Speaker 12: The biggest driver of the upside though, among them is
• 42:53
  Speaker 12: Disney after quarterly results showcasing cost cuts, which will be
• 42:58
  Speaker 12: interesting ahead of News Court results after the belt today,
• 43:01
  Speaker 12: So getting a bit more detail, Paul, As you mentioned
• 43:04
  Speaker 12: in your neck of the woods within the media space.
• 43:06
  Speaker 12: One stock that does stand out though, YETI Holdings.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys are huge Yetti fan.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: I'm a big I'm a big owner of YETI products.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: Full disclosure here.
• 43:16
  Speaker 12: I've got the cooler, I've got a couple of the tumblers.
• 43:18
  Speaker 12: Stock up twenty percent right now after better than expected
• 43:23
  Speaker 12: second quarter results, boosting their forecast for earnings for the year.
• 43:27
  Speaker 12: So biggest entry day percentage gained since November. Trading at
• 43:30
  Speaker 12: the highest sense February analysts across Wall Street really praising
• 43:33
  Speaker 12: those results.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: It is ridiculous how good those products are. I'll put
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: the I'll put the water in my Yetti little container,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: go to the beach. I can barely touch the exterior
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: of the bottle because it's so hot from the sun
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: on the beach. Drink the water ice cold.
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: But why is uh?
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: Why is Yeti the only name we know because we
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: grew up with coleman or Yeah, Igloo, Iglu, that's the one, exactly,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: And they don't. I don't know if they make the
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: same kind of products. But there are other cooler makers
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: who make I think what's called Rodo molded coolers right.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: Arctic Coolers is one, Orca is another. I'm pretty sure
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: Pelican makes them as well. I don't they don't see
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: anything besides YETI. If you go to an Arii, for example,
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: it's all about YETI.
• 44:26
  Speaker 12: Well, even if you go to Dick's Sporting Goods or
• 44:27
  Speaker 12: Lows and Home Depot, there's an entire YETI section. Wine tumblers,
• 44:32
  Speaker 12: the regular tumblers, mega ones that are like.
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: My brother's fiance has a Yetti Martini glass. No, she's
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: welcome in.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: A family, exactly it's essential to her lifestyle.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: It's a lifestyle aspirational brand.
• 44:48
  Speaker 11: Well it's interesting too. They make backpacks, now, they make clothing.
• 44:51
  Speaker 12: It seems like they're really branching out into kind of
• 44:54
  Speaker 12: the mainstream consumer goods outside of just coolers, because I
• 44:57
  Speaker 12: remember at one point when the stock was trading down
• 44:59
  Speaker 12: back in twenty twenty one, it peaked above one hundred
• 45:01
  Speaker 12: and seven bucks right now below fifty, and we were
• 45:03
  Speaker 12: kind of calling out, like how many tumblers can a
• 45:05
  Speaker 12: person buy? I mean, my brother's got the backpack, he's
• 45:08
  Speaker 12: got the twelfth pack cooler, But like, other than once
• 45:11
  Speaker 12: you hat kind of Now, does.
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: Your brother also wear a white baseball cap and talk
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: about his frat all the time and have an.
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: Old Roa subscription.
• 45:19
  Speaker 12: No, my brother's actually the he's in that blue collar
• 45:23
  Speaker 12: working class. So he's one of the construction guys who
• 45:25
  Speaker 12: has the cooler loaded.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: Up for gotta have that.
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they have it too, But I just I always
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: feel like I risk if I put a yetti sticker
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: on my truck, or you know, if I wear the hat,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: I risk being lumped in with that whole you know,
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: good old boy crowd.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know it's weird good.
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: I don't go to SEC games, you know, I'd love
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: to going to SEC game.
• 45:46
  Speaker 12: But I feel like Yeti's interesting because it has that
• 45:49
  Speaker 12: kind of you know, fraternity vibe, but also the like construction, firefighter,
• 45:53
  Speaker 12: police officer.
• 45:55
  Speaker 9: True.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, look at that chart. That's another pandemic chart stuck.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: You know, twenty twenty just started ripping, you know, went
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: from like twenty bucks up to one hundred bucks, and
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: like a lot of those pandemic stocks, at the end
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one were peaked kind of been coming
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: down ever since.
• 46:10
  Speaker 12: Another stock and focus though on Matt. I want your
• 46:12
  Speaker 12: opinion on luxury not luxury. Ralph Lauren right now down
• 46:15
  Speaker 12: two and a half percent, falling for the fifth straight
• 46:17
  Speaker 12: session after they reported quarterly results that had a light
• 46:20
  Speaker 12: two Q forecast. Our Phil's calm luxury brand, Ralph Larett
• 46:24
  Speaker 12: and Luxury are not luxury.
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: I mean, to my mind, it's a staple.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: Course to my mind, it's a sort of staple of
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: the upper middle class, right, And they do make higher
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: end products. The Purple label is one they have RRL,
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: but they don't actually achieve full luxury I think because,
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: for example, RRL likes flight jackets and you know Japanese
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: denim kind of products work where sort of stuff. They
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: don't really have the quality that the truly good and
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: that space have.
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: They just have the design, all right.
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: It's a eight billion dollar market cap, up about eighteen
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: percent year to date and down two point seven percent
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: today on the I guess on that print, right, yeah,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: after those results.
• 47:10
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 47:11
  Speaker 12: One of the things that I thought was interesting is
• 47:13
  Speaker 12: that they drive half a bit more than half their
• 47:15
  Speaker 12: sales outside of North America.
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: Really, Okay, so.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: That's a bread making up a chunk of that interested
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: to see I'm gonna be really fascinated to see now
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: that China's opening up air travel for its or loosening
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: and I guess a little bit for uh it's uh,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: you know, people, whether we'll see an outflow of Chinese uh,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: just visitors and travel. Do they have the same pent
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: up kind of revenue they did?
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: They allow they're allowing group travel. Yes, so they're allowing like.
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: Tour groups now to leave China for destinations like the US.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: So I guess that's a good first step. But maybe
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: we'll be seeing some more of a Chinese friends here
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: in the big city shopping in some of those big
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: luxury stores. We certainly like to see that.
• 47:55
  Speaker 11: And gils Bery Hawaiian holding is down four percent.
• 47:57
  Speaker 12: This all coming after that news Maui's so we're keeping
• 48:01
  Speaker 12: an eye on that. Obviously not a positive update in
• 48:03
  Speaker 12: terms of kind of the news that's coming out of there,
• 48:05
  Speaker 12: but keeping an eye.
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: On that story is unbelievable. I mean the fires a
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: I've never remember seeing them hearing about fires and why before.
• 48:13
  Speaker 4: No, I don't know.
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: If this is a new thing, but boy, and just
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: the destruction of that beautiful area, I guess it's on Maui.
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: You know, crazy yeah story the former capital YEP of
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: Hawaii has been decimated.
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just terrible news. All right, Belly, thanks so
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: much for joining us. Are Billy lipstialt He covers all
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: the markets for Bloomberg News. I want to talk about endowments.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: I know a thing or two amount of Doomans having
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: worked on some boards of schools, and for a lot
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: of schools, it's the lifeblood. Its kind of supports the
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: economics of the school. And some of these big universities
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: report their endowment numbers pretty publicly and Janet lorn Higher
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: education financial report for Bloomberg News joins us here on
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. How did some of these
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: big universities do in this last fiscal year, which I
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: guess ends in June thirtieth.
• 48:58
  Speaker 15: Yes, we'll be starting to hear more school specific returns
• 49:02
  Speaker 15: coming up in the next month or two. Okay, we
• 49:04
  Speaker 15: get a good snapshot and the median is eight point
• 49:08
  Speaker 15: seven percent, which might sound like a terrific return, but
• 49:10
  Speaker 15: we have to keep in mind inflation. So while you know,
• 49:15
  Speaker 15: you have to factor in spending and also what schools
• 49:19
  Speaker 15: are paying out in terms of inflation, they're also paying
• 49:21
  Speaker 15: higher costs for everything from construction to professor salaries. They're
• 49:26
  Speaker 15: even paying more in financial aid. So those it may
• 49:30
  Speaker 15: sound like a great return, but a lot of it
• 49:32
  Speaker 15: is being eaten up by inflation.
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: I have to imagine financial aid spending has gone way
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: up over the past couple of decades because so many
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: I mean I focus on the schools, the big endowments
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: that you write about. You know, so many of those
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: schools have hardly any students who are paying full tuition.
• 49:51
  Speaker 15: Well, a lot of the schools have been trying to
• 49:54
  Speaker 15: make a concerted effort, you know, to showing Congress and
• 49:57
  Speaker 15: the federal government that they are attracting lower income students.
• 50:00
  Speaker 15: Harvard said this year twenty five percent of their entire
• 50:03
  Speaker 15: freshman class it has an income of eighty five thousand,
• 50:06
  Speaker 15: are below and they're giving more financial aid for students.
• 50:10
  Speaker 15: Who are you trying to have a more diverse and
• 50:13
  Speaker 15: economically diverse class.
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: You like Columbia University, don't you?
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: Yes?
• 50:17
  Speaker 11: I did go to school there.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: I mean undergrad of Columbia, Masters and Journalism Columbia. Then
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: a Spencer Fellow for Columbia, which you finished this year.
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: What is that?
• 50:27
  Speaker 15: So that is a reporting fellowship looking into education.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: Reported everyone comes in, there's so much smarter than we are.
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, like everyone from Bloombo News comes in and
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: I'm just like you guys kill me, all right? So
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: going back to like your story here, I mean, talk
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: to us about endownm It's how important are they to
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: these schools because it just seems like, you know, I
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: do a lot of work with Duke and they're Endown
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: monstrous and they get great returns and it's such a
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: big supporter of everything they try to do. But some schools,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: most schools don't have that right.
• 50:57
  Speaker 15: Well, and there's a handful of schools that are extremely
• 51:00
  Speaker 15: reliant on the returns. Schools like Princeton and Amherst rely
• 51:03
  Speaker 15: on more than half their entire budgets from endowments. I
• 51:07
  Speaker 15: think in some cases they're sixty percent. But you know,
• 51:09
  Speaker 15: when you look at smaller schools, their endowments are smaller,
• 51:12
  Speaker 15: they're in US equities, and you know, they did much
• 51:15
  Speaker 15: better for their returns this year, given that equities were
• 51:17
  Speaker 15: up about eighteen percent in the period. It just depends
• 51:21
  Speaker 15: on the school. And as you know, long term returns
• 51:26
  Speaker 15: were about six percent for the ten year average, which
• 51:29
  Speaker 15: is not a great return considering inflation and what they're spending.
• 51:33
  Speaker 15: They actually have to earn a lot more in order
• 51:36
  Speaker 15: to keep pace. So you know, we'll see as these
• 51:38
  Speaker 15: numbers come out how the schools are doing. Last year
• 51:41
  Speaker 15: was a terrible year, the worst year in returns since
• 51:44
  Speaker 15: the Great Recession.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: But okay, percent But here alternative investments are, particularly for
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: the larger endowments, are a huge percentage, and it shocks
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: people how much they're putting into hedge funds, private equity,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: private credit. Thirty forty percent of their endowment. They're putting
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: into these which don't want anymore, probably more some of
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: the bigger ones. They don't have liquidity, that's the downside.
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: But they make retire.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: Okay, there's a scene called market to market. They did
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: not mark the market the down twenty twenty five percent
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: year we had last year. I didn't see it anywhere
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: in the endowments.
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: Why why would they have to. It's not the same
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: as a bank, No.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: But it's an endowment, and I would think they would
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: have marked the market regulations as well.
• 52:26
  Speaker 15: I don't believe they do.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: I don't believe they do it.
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: I can't imagine.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: That's why. And it's interesting because I kept when I
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: listened to the board meeting and I was like, okay,
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: but what about the forty percent we got in you know,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: some leveraged thing that's in Zimbabwe or something some you
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: know zinc mine. Where's that? You know?
• 52:43
  Speaker 15: Well, most of the larger schools, you're absolutely right, mostly
• 52:47
  Speaker 15: in alternatives. And that was a big shift starting in
• 52:49
  Speaker 15: the late eighties early nineties when David Swinton, the late
• 52:53
  Speaker 15: CIO at Yale, decided that schools could get a better
• 52:56
  Speaker 15: premium for illiquidity, and most schools really are the big
• 52:59
  Speaker 15: ones shied away from US equities, and in some years
• 53:04
  Speaker 15: it's really paid off. In this year and in years past,
• 53:07
  Speaker 15: you've seen smaller endowments with larger shares in US equities
• 53:11
  Speaker 15: have much better returns, and of course they're not paying
• 53:13
  Speaker 15: the fees that alternatives command.
• 53:16
  Speaker 9: Well.
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: Tuitions across the board continue to rise.
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: Though, right, Janet, And how long can that happen, especially
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: as we as it becomes a national issue that people
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: owe so much money.
• 53:26
  Speaker 15: In student dead Well, I think twenty years ago we
• 53:29
  Speaker 15: would have been surprised at the price tag that it
• 53:32
  Speaker 15: keeps continuing to rise. Now, however, if you look at
• 53:34
  Speaker 15: the share of student loans, the most of the most
• 53:38
  Speaker 15: biggest share is not actually for college, it's for graduate school,
• 53:41
  Speaker 15: because you can really borrow a lot up to the
• 53:44
  Speaker 15: cost of attendance for graduate school, which could be you know,
• 53:46
  Speaker 15: eighty ninety thousand dollars in a year for a federal
• 53:49
  Speaker 15: student loan for your freshman year, you're only you're limited
• 53:52
  Speaker 15: to fifty five hundred dollars, sixty five hundred in the
• 53:55
  Speaker 15: second year, and seventy five hundred in the third and
• 53:57
  Speaker 15: fourth year, so a bit the biggest share of student
• 54:00
  Speaker 15: debt is really graduate school. Yes, yeah, yeah, there's limits.
• 54:04
  Speaker 15: You know.
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: Doctor Joel Fleischmann had one hundred and twenty five thousand
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: dollars of debt, did he really?
• 54:08
  Speaker 15: He paid it off in Alaska, which.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: Is why he had to go to Alaska.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: Exactly. He went to Columbia Medical School for that show.
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: The show is called Northern Exposure.
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: Right show. It's now on Netflix. There's a writing campaign.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: I just bought it, you know.
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: I've been searching for it for you, I know, and
• 54:25
  Speaker 4: I could never find it.
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: He's like, I follow him on Twitter because he does
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: a lot of really good stuff, including he's on Billions now.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: But I followed on Twitter and he said, you say,
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: everywhere I go, people say, how come Northern Exposure is
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: not on.
• 54:37
  Speaker 4: Netflix's on Netflix? And I just bought it sixty dollars
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: for the whole first season. It's very expensive.
• 54:43
  Speaker 15: Really, can you send that password to me?
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: Yes? But there's password sharing, all right, talk to just
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: about I mean, I've got my last of my offspring,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: my four offspring coming this freshman year in college, a
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: private university. The tuition starts within eight.
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: Oh my goodness.
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: Exactly, I'm just like Holy Cow. And there's no end
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: in sight, is there. It's me it's gonna take an
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: Act of Congress because it's just.
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: A school in Europe because it doesn't make any sense
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: to me.
• 55:09
  Speaker 15: Well, and when we talk about student loans and you know,
• 55:13
  Speaker 15: you hear this chatter about ten thousand dollars, which of
• 55:15
  Speaker 15: course is not is not happening. It didn't. It never
• 55:18
  Speaker 15: addressed the root cause, which is the increasing cost of college.
• 55:22
  Speaker 15: So you're right, there doesn't seem to be an end
• 55:24
  Speaker 15: in sight, and there's no real regulation. And when schools
• 55:28
  Speaker 15: are when you're looking at default rates for colleges, they're
• 55:31
  Speaker 15: never on the hook. Yeah, they don't have skin in
• 55:34
  Speaker 15: the game.
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just extraordinary. It doesn't feel like I mean,
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: it's the best university system in the world arguably, but boy,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: it's that the economics are tough for the average person
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: out there. Janet Lauren, thank you so much for joining us.
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: Janet Laurence. She's a higher education financial reporter for Bloomberg News,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: and I mean, no diversity in her education. It's just Colombia, Columbia, Columbia.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a good school and all, but you know,
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: try something different. It's pretty good. Yeah, it's pretty good.
• 55:59
  Speaker 4: They have a pretty good journalism school as well.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: Man, I know they're very good. They in a great
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: business school too. I've been hiring Peel out of the
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: Columbia Busines School forever and a good history department. Good
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: to know. I'm sure everything's good.
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: There.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: It's Columbia.
• 56:13
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• 56:16
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• 56:20
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• 56:21
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• 56:26
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• 56:31
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• 56:49
  Speaker 1: can find that, all right, we can do it anyway.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: As Charlie was just reporting, Disney reported some numbers there
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: for the closed stocks up four percent. Lots of cross
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: currents there, reflecting a lot of cross currents in the
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: media industry as this industry tries to shift from a
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: traditional model which was based upon lots and lots of
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: people paying the cable companies and satellite companies a lot
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: of money every month to one now everybody's streaming and
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: what does that do to the economics? Ian Whitaker joins us.
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: He's a managing director and owner at Liberty Sky Advisors.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: He's one He's based in London, England. One of the
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: smarter folks I talked to about the global media business. Ian,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. First, what did
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: you make from Disney's results last night and can you
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: extrapolate that out to just kind of how the global
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: media industry is evolving?
• 57:37
  Speaker 16: Yeah, no, it's very interesting and am I what would say? Well,
• 57:42
  Speaker 16: first of all, in terms of extrapolation, as you say, there's
• 57:45
  Speaker 16: a lot more focused now on cost control and efficiencies.
• 57:50
  Speaker 16: So and this a company divides and interest rates that
• 57:52
  Speaker 16: we saw the market shifted from strategies that were based
• 57:56
  Speaker 16: on growth to ones that assented the emphasize with cost
• 58:00
  Speaker 16: control as well, and that very much was the story
• 58:02
  Speaker 16: that came across from Disney. When you look at the
• 58:05
  Speaker 16: management remarks very much focusing on what they had done
• 58:08
  Speaker 16: about avertucing capex, what they've done about cost control been
• 58:12
  Speaker 16: more ahead of expectations. There is a flip side to that, though,
• 58:16
  Speaker 16: which is if you are going to focus more on
• 58:19
  Speaker 16: that side, then what it does mean is that you're
• 58:22
  Speaker 16: essentially saying the growth of future growth potential is probably
• 58:26
  Speaker 16: lower than you expected. And so I think the message
• 58:29
  Speaker 16: that we're getting, particularly in the streaming space, from all
• 58:32
  Speaker 16: of these companies is the markets want them to be
• 58:35
  Speaker 16: more financially disciplined, and that's fine, and are obviously taking
• 58:39
  Speaker 16: steps to do so. But really the underlying message that
• 58:42
  Speaker 16: is coming through is that we think the potential future
• 58:47
  Speaker 16: growth within the market is far less than we anticipated
• 58:51
  Speaker 16: several years ago. And again you can see that in
• 58:54
  Speaker 16: some of Disney's comments. They were talking about so not
• 58:57
  Speaker 16: all markets will be equal for streaming, their comments on
• 59:01
  Speaker 16: hot Star in India essentially saying we dropped twenty four
• 59:05
  Speaker 16: percent year on year in terms of subscriber numbers, but
• 59:08
  Speaker 16: essentially don't worry because it doesn't have that much impact
• 59:12
  Speaker 16: on the financials. Such a statement probably would never have
• 59:15
  Speaker 16: been made eighteen months ago.
• 59:17
  Speaker 9: Now.
• 59:18
  Speaker 16: I think that has some very interesting implications when it
• 59:21
  Speaker 16: comes to valuations, because maybe not so much for Disney,
• 59:26
  Speaker 16: although it's part in there simply because it's it's a
• 59:28
  Speaker 16: constituent part of different entities. But if you take stots
• 59:32
  Speaker 16: like Netflix, for example, probably the valuations where they are
• 59:36
  Speaker 16: at the moment still very much reflect a consensual view
• 59:40
  Speaker 16: that they are still long term growth stories, and probably
• 59:43
  Speaker 16: long term.
• 59:44
  Speaker 9: High growth stories.
• 59:46
  Speaker 16: I would question whether that's the case for many of
• 59:48
  Speaker 16: these players.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: What do you think about the profitability of streaming services?
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: Paul was talking to the head.
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: Of sag Aftra I think last week or two weeks ago,
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: and and she was saying, these streaming services make thirty
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: billion dollars a year in profit.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: They want their take. Did they actually make that much money?
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 14: No?
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 16: I have absolutely no idea where she actually got that
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 16: number one, because that just does not make sense.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 9: I mean, if you.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 16: Look through the results from these companies, the mainstreaming companies globally, yes,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 16: Netflix has an operating profit, but people like Disney is
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 16: still making losses. Obviously, Peacock several billion dollars losses this
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 16: year as well, Warner Brothers. Yes, again has brought down
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 16: the amount of losses, but nobody is near profitability yet.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 16: I think this is going to be a very interesting
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 16: question sort of. My view is in the next five
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 16: to ten years this will be a core paper when
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 16: it comes to NBA studies as to how, quite frankly,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 16: these companies traded in what was a model that worked
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 16: very well for them, i the established PATV model, but
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 16: essentially one where the economics are just a lot tougher
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 16: because they were not naturally D two C companies. They've
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 16: had to go out and do a lot more in
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 16: terms of marketing. It's a proot of the economics of
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 16: their of their of their content businesses as well. I
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 16: think the argument that this was inevitable I don't necessarily
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 16: buy that. I think there could have been sort of
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 16: areas where some of the companies have been smarter, could
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 16: have taken different strategies. Sony, for example, I think has
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 16: adopted the right approach, which is say, look, we don't
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 16: want to have a D t C business, but what
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 16: we will be is we will be the arms dealer
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 16: to everyone else if they want our content, and we
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 16: will sell it at the highest price and I think
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 16: that's exactly the right strategy, particularly for let's call them
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 16: second tier players within it, within the market. But I
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 16: think what we will find over the next five years
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 16: is that what will happened with streaming is that streaming,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 16: if there is going to be any profits, they're going
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 16: to be limited.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 9: But what's going to.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 16: Happen with the major the major media companies is from
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 16: a financial standpoint, especially in the US, they're going to
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 16: be outgoinged by the tech companies when it comes to
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 16: to sports fights. And I think also as well, what
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 16: I suspect we will then start to see is sort
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 16: of a reversion back to the idea that streaming doesn't
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 16: isn't the central focus of everything. I think again, this
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 16: is what you've seen from warners talking about that the
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 16: streaming tail should not wag the corporate dog.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: Well Ian, I mean, then that kind of goes to
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: the question of are these stocks even investable here in
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: the process while these while this industry is trying to
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: figure out how to generate better profits and better returns,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: it almost seems like you can't invest in this space
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: in general outside of Netflix.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 16: I mean, what I would say is that I think
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 16: there is for each of the particularly each of the
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 16: streaming companies. I think there was a major question about
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 16: how how they have come about how they have adopted
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 16: their strategy. She's over the past several years. And what
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 16: do I mean by that. Well, let's take a Disney Yeah,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 16: what it said yesterday, the three core components are theme park, streaming,
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 16: and studios. Well, it was only around two and a
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 16: half years ago that people were pretty much so willing
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 16: to write off.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 9: The film's business. Yep.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 16: Since she's saying that the way that we watch films
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 16: is dead, it's all going to be about director streaming
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 16: and essentially the idea that people will go in a
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 16: post pandemic world to go and watch movies in the
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 16: movie theater.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: It is just ridiculous.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 16: They made strategic decisions, major strategic decisions based on that,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 16: and now what they're having to do is reverse those
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 16: out as they find out that the decisions they made
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 16: were wrong. I think streaming again is another example. As
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 16: I've explained before, I think there are ways that they
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 16: could have each of them could look to their stress
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 16: She's and gone about this in a different way. So
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 16: I think, yeah, with none of these companies, I think
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 16: companies are at different levels as to where they are
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 16: along their strategy realignment. Me for someone like Disney, YEP,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 16: I think there was still a question mark as to
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 16: have they really got that stress.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: She fixed all right, We're gonna have to leave it there.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: Ian appreciate it. Ian Whitaker, Managing director and owner at
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: Liberty Sky Advisors.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can
• 1:04:18
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