Latest / Diplomacy and International Relations / Extra - Palestinian Statehood and Israeli Actions at the UNGA

Transcript

Extra - Palestinian Statehood and Israeli Actions at the UNGA · Diplomacy and International Relations

0:00
Welcome to Diplomacy and International Relations by
0:02
Bastian Freiburg. Today, we're doing a deep dive
0:05
into something really central happening right now, the 80th UN
0:09
General Assembly, which is actually kicking off this week.
0:12
And tied into that, this surging international momentum we're
0:16
seeing for recognizing Palestinian statehood, where
0:19
sources are saying it's a critical moment.
0:21
You know, old illusions are kind of being stripped away, and it's
0:24
revealing some immense challenges, but maybe also some
0:26
opportunities for, well, reshaping global governance.
0:30
That's right, and we've pulled together quite a stack of
0:32
sources for this one. We've got reports from Al
0:33
Jazeera, some analysis from the Atlantic Council, official UN
0:36
News and detailed international legal documents too.
0:41
So the idea is to really cut through the noise, give you the
0:43
core insights, help you understand the financial and
0:45
political crises facing the UN, these growing calls for
0:49
Palestinian recognition and the, let's say, intricate legal
0:52
battles playing out internationally.
0:54
Absolutely. We want to give you a clear
0:56
picture of what's happening, why it matters for international
0:59
relations, maybe even for Danish politics, and what could come
1:02
next. We'll be looking closely at the
1:04
diplomatic shifts, the legal stuff happening at the
1:07
International Criminal Court and the International Court of
1:09
Justice. Big difference there.
1:10
We'll get into that. Right.
1:11
And the human rights situation on the ground too.
1:14
Before we get into all that, just a quick note, you can
1:16
subscribe to Diplomacy and International Relations by
1:19
Bastian Freiborg on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
1:22
It's a small monthly fee and your support really helps us
1:25
keep doing these deep dives. Plus, you get access to
1:28
exclusive extra episodes. The links right there in the
1:31
description. OK, let's unpack this.
1:35
The 80th UN General Assembly, a moment of reckoning.
1:39
So the 80th UNGA, it's happening now in New York.
1:41
Can you kind of set the scene for us?
1:43
What's the feeling the key dates?
1:45
Well, the mood, according to our sources, is really one of
1:47
reckoning. That's the word being used.
1:49
There's internal hand wringing, you know, over funding is a
1:52
sustainable and this sort of ossified outrage over the war in
1:56
Gaza. It feels like a moment of real
1:59
introspection for the UN itself, the incoming president, former
2:03
German Foreign Minister Annelina Baerbach.
2:05
She's presenting her agenda this Tuesday.
2:07
Her term runs through September 2026.
2:10
And the theme is, well, quite fitting.
2:12
Better Together 80 years and More for peace, development and
2:15
human rights. OK, so reckoning and beyond
2:18
Baerbach laying out her agenda, when does the the main action
2:22
start with all the world leaders?
2:25
The first week is mostly procedural stuff, but the big
2:27
high level week that kicks off September 22nd.
2:30
That starts with a meeting looking back at EU NS 80 years
2:33
and also looking forward considering the path ahead for a
2:36
more inclusive and responsive multilateral system.
2:39
Then the general debate follows on September 23rd.
2:41
That's when you get the big speeches.
2:42
At least 188 heads of state or high-ranking officials are
2:46
expected. Always a key moment.
2:48
Right. And for anyone maybe less
2:50
familiar, remind us what exactly does the UNGA do?
2:54
Why is this gathering so important in the grand scheme of
2:57
things? Good question.
2:59
The UNC is basically the UNS main policy making body.
3:03
Think of it like a global parliament almost.
3:05
It's unique because all 193 member countries get a seat.
3:09
An equal voice. Palestine and the Holy See have
3:12
observer status. Non member observer status.
3:14
It tackles everything really. International peace and
3:16
security, especially if the Security Council's deadlocked,
3:18
which happens also human rights, international law, cooperation
3:22
on economic, social, health issues, you name it.
3:26
And critically, it approved the UN budget and funds
3:28
peacekeeping. So it holds the purse strings in
3:30
a way. OK, purse strings and policy,
3:32
but you mentioned reckoning and our sources definitely point to
3:35
the UN being under huge pressure right now, these huge crises.
3:38
What are they exactly? Richard Gowen from the
3:40
International Crisis Group puts it quite starkly.
3:43
He says illusions have been rather stripped away.
3:47
He points to major financial and political crises.
3:50
For instance, the US under President Trump has again made
3:55
widespread cuts to foreign aid, hundreds of millions to UN
3:57
agencies. Hundreds of millions.
4:00
And on top of that, they've withheld or even revoked visas
4:03
for Palestinian Authority and PLO officials trying to attend
4:07
the UNGA. Now, the US is still the biggest
4:08
funder, about $13 billion in 2023.
4:11
But these caps create, in gallons words, an incredibly bad
4:14
financial situation. And then there are internal
4:17
issues too, questions about Secretary General Gutierrez's UN
4:20
80 initiative. To shroomline things, some
4:22
member states, even staff, are pushing back.
4:24
So pressure from outside and inside 2 The shifting landscape
4:28
of Palestinian statehood recognition.
4:30
So you've got a UN dealing with its own internal storms,
4:33
financial pressures, But against that backdrop, this huge
4:36
external issue, Palestinian statehood, it seems to be really
4:39
dominating the agenda this year. Sources are showing real
4:41
momentum. What's the current status?
4:43
How's this recognition landscape changing?
4:45
Well, right now 147 out of 193 UN members recognize the state
4:49
of Palestine. That's what, over 76%, Yeah.
4:52
And Palestine has had non member observer state status at the
4:56
UNGA since back in November 2012.
4:59
But getting full UN membership that's been consistently blocked
5:03
by the US using or threatening to use its veto in the Security
5:07
Council. OK.
5:07
So observer status, but not full membership because of the US
5:10
veto. But this year feels different.
5:13
What's driving this diplomatic surge we're seeing now?
5:16
Yeah, a couple of major factors. The ongoing war and the terrible
5:20
humanitarian crisis in Gaza. That's undeniable.
5:23
But also domestic political considerations within various
5:25
countries are playing a big role.
5:27
For example, France and Saudi Arabia are planning to host a
5:29
conference on Israel and Palestine, and several European
5:32
nations are signalling they'll join the recognition push.
5:34
It feels like an acceleration. Right.
5:36
An acceleration, but we're seeing a lot of conditional
5:38
recognition pledges, aren't we? So countries like Australia,
5:41
Canada, the UK, they're saying yes, but what's the story there?
5:45
Is it a real shift or more like cautious hedging?
5:48
That's a really sharp observation.
5:50
It does highlight the complexity.
5:52
It's a shift, yes, but the conditions suggest countries
5:55
want to influence the form of a future Palestinian state.
5:58
It's not a blank check. Belgium just pledged recognition
6:02
of the UNGA. France and Malta did earlier,
6:04
but then you have Australia, Canada, the UK announcing
6:07
conditional recognition. OK, So what are some of those
6:10
conditions? Let's.
6:11
Break it down, France. Mccraw's pledge seemed to catch
6:15
some off guard. It seems driven by domestic
6:18
politics and this joint proposal with Saudi Arabia for a
6:21
resolution. That resolution talks about
6:24
tangible, time bound and irreversible steps towards 2
6:27
states, but critically, it excludes Hamas and calls for
6:31
Israeli withdrawal. OK, excluding Hamas is key
6:34
there. What about Canada?
6:35
Canada Prime Minister Carney announced recognition for
6:37
September. Again, domestic pressure and
6:39
national values cited, but it's conditional on the Palestinian
6:43
Authority holding elections by next year, also excluding Hamas
6:46
and pursuing demilitarization. Canada's also offering money to
6:49
the PA for governance reforms, so strings attached.
6:52
And the UK similar conditions. United Kingdom Prime Minister
6:57
Starmer said the UK would recognize in September unless
7:00
Israel agrees to a ceasefire, take steps on Gaza, commits to
7:03
two States and says clearly it won't annex the West Bank.
7:07
Very direct demands on Israel. There and Germany still holding
7:10
back. German Foreign Minister Waitiful
7:13
is sticking to the line that recognition should come at the
7:15
end of a 2 state process. But, he adds, the process needs
7:19
to start at once. Slightly different nuance.
7:22
It's fascinating how varied the approaches are, even among
7:25
allies now. Thinking about our listeners
7:27
interested in Danish politics, Denmark often emphasizes
7:30
negotiated solutions or EU coordination.
7:33
How does their stance fit into this picture?
7:35
Does it show a split in the EU? That's a great point about
7:38
Denmark's traditional stance. Our sources indicate Foreign
7:41
Minister Lars Lika Rasmussen initially preferred recognition
7:44
to come either from a negotiated deal or a coordinated EU move,
7:48
maybe around July 2025. That reflects that typical
7:51
Danish and often broader Nordic emphasis on processing
7:54
consensus. However.
7:56
Then in August 2025, Prime Minister Mitt Frederickson
7:59
announced Denmark would not recognize Palestine right now.
8:02
Her reasoning was that it wouldn't actually help the
8:04
children suffering on the ground at this moment.
8:06
So a more pragmatic, humanitarian focused
8:09
justification for holding back. Exactly.
8:12
It highlights that even within the EU, while the long term goal
8:15
might be similar, the immediate tactics and priorities can
8:18
differ. Denmark's prioritizing immediate
8:20
needs and the conditions for a sustainable peace process over
8:23
the symbolic act of recognition Right now.
8:25
It shows the nuances. OK, so with all these varied
8:28
positions, conditional recognitions, how's the US under
8:31
President Trump reacting to this wave?
8:33
Well, President Trump seems to align with Israel's perspective,
8:36
he said. Something like you could make
8:38
the case that you're rewarding Hamas if you do that.
8:42
He clearly believes these recognitions won't achieve
8:45
anything real on the ground, that only negotiations can do
8:48
that. But are the sources suggesting
8:50
there's more to it? Yes, crucially, our sources
8:53
point out that this wave of recognition is also a direct
8:55
consequence of Israel's own failure to present any kind of
8:59
believable day after plan for Gaza.
9:02
This contrast with what previous US administrations tried to push
9:05
for. Even Trump's own idea for a Gaza
9:08
Riviera went nowhere. And you have some extremist
9:10
ministers in the Israeli government who seem to be openly
9:13
pushing for reoccupation and annexation, which obviously
9:16
undermines any path to negotiation and puts the US in a
9:20
difficult spot. 3 International legal framework and
9:23
accountability. OK.
9:24
Shifting gears a bit beyond the diplomacy, there's this really
9:27
significant legal dimension unfolding.
9:29
We hear about the ICC and the ICJ.
9:31
What role are these international courts playing?
9:34
And remind us, what's the basic difference between them again?
9:37
Right. It's crucial to keep them
9:38
straight. The ICC, the International
9:40
Criminal Court, prosecutes individuals.
9:43
Think specific people accused of the gravest crimes, genocide,
9:47
crimes against humanity, war crimes.
9:49
It's about individual accountability.
9:51
OK, individuals and the ICJ. The ICJ, the International Court
9:54
of Justice is different. It's aun body, it handles
9:56
disputes between States and it gives advisory opinions on legal
10:00
questions asked by UN organs. So ICC for people, ICJ for
10:03
states. Got it.
10:04
So how has Palestine actually engaged with these courts?
10:07
Has that 2012 observer status made a difference?
10:10
A huge difference. That non member observer status
10:13
allowed Palestine to join international treaties and UN
10:17
agencies and critically, it opened the door to potentially
10:21
invoking ICC jurisdiction. Palestine actually tried back in
10:24
2009 lodging a declaration to accept ICC jurisdiction.
10:29
It was rejected initially, but the ICC prosecutor later said
10:32
they revisited if Palestine passes over that hurdle of
10:35
statehood, which arguably it did with the observer status in
10:38
2012. So what?
10:39
That means the ICC can investigate crimes committed
10:42
after Palestine submits a fresh declaration, potentially going
10:45
back quite far, even to July 2002, based on how these things
10:48
have worked before. OK.
10:50
So the ICC door is potentially open, but the ICJ, the state
10:53
court seems incredibly active right now.
10:55
Can you walk us through some of the key rulings or opinions
10:58
coming out of there? Absolutely.
10:59
The ICJ has been front and center lately.
11:02
It really underscores the gravity of the situation under
11:04
international law. Back in 2004, people might
11:07
remember the ICG issued a big advisory opinion.
11:09
The General Assembly asked for it.
11:10
The court ruled Israel's building of the wall and
11:13
occupied Palestinian territory was illegal.
11:15
Right, the wall. That was significant.
11:17
What about more recently? Much more recently, in January
11:20
2024, South Africa brought a case arguing violations of the
11:24
Genocide Convention. The ICJ acknowledged a real and
11:28
imminent risk of irreparable prejudice to Palestinians in
11:32
Gaza. It ordered Israel to take
11:34
measures to prevent genocidal acts.
11:36
And did that have an effect? Well, the court issued further
11:38
orders in March noting the humanitarian situation was
11:41
getting worse. Then in May, citing an
11:44
exceptionally grave risk in Rafa, it ordered Israel to
11:47
immediately stop its military offensive there.
11:50
But, and this is a big but, our sources state these orders have
11:53
been largely disregarded by Israel and most other states.
11:57
That raises serious questions about enforcement.
11:59
Doesn't. It it certainly does disregarded
12:01
orders anything else from the ICJ?
12:03
Yes, perhaps the most significant.
12:05
Recently, on July 19, 2024, the ICJ issued another advisory
12:09
opinion. This one was about the legal
12:11
consequences of Israel's policies and practices in the
12:13
occupied Palestinian territory. The OPT.
12:16
The court found that the occupation, especially what it
12:18
called its settler colonial character, effectively amounts
12:21
to an act of aggression. An act of aggression.
12:24
That's strong language from the ICJ.
12:25
Very strong. The courts stressed the need for
12:28
a swift end to the occupation. Dismantling settlements,
12:32
evacuating settlers, really profound legal statements about
12:35
the entire structure of the occupation.
12:37
Wow. OK, so the ICJ is making these
12:39
major pronouncements, but beyond the courts, UN human rights
12:43
bodies are also issuing reports. What are they finding?
12:46
What's the picture they're painting?
12:47
It's a deeply disturbing picture, The special Rapporteur
12:50
on human rights in the Palestinian territories for
12:53
Jessica Albanese. She talks about ongoing horrors,
12:56
She describes the violence since October 7th, 2023 as part of a
13:00
quote long term intentional Israeli strategy of forced
13:04
displacement and replacement of Palestinians.
13:07
And she goes further, suggesting that genocide should be
13:09
perceived as a fundamental component and tool in the
13:12
pursuit of complete Israeli colonization.
13:15
It's an extraordinarily grave assessment from an independent
13:18
UN expert. That is incredibly serious.
13:20
Genocide is a tool. What specific violations are
13:22
being reported to lead to conclusions like that?
13:25
Well, there's the Independent International Commission of
13:27
Inquiry, the ICI on the OPT and Israel.
13:30
Their March 2025 report details, quote, systematic use of sexual,
13:34
reproductive and other forms of gender based violence.
13:37
Sr. GB V the report that's being
13:39
carried out by Israeli security forces and settlers.
13:42
It includes deliberate attacks on healthcare facilities,
13:45
denying access to reproductive services and using starvation
13:48
and deprivation as methods of warfare, which they say has led
13:52
to increased miscarriages and maternal deaths.
13:54
The Commission concludes these aren't isolated incidents, but
13:57
part of a broader pattern aimed at inflicting collective
14:00
punishment and long term harm. And again, quote may amount to
14:03
genocidal acts. It's just horrific detail.
14:06
And what about the physical landscape, the settlements?
14:08
We know that's been a core issue for decades.
14:10
What's the latest there? The UN High Commissioner for
14:12
Human Rights is 2025 report details the continuing
14:16
annexation of the Palestinian territories by settler
14:19
expansion. It notes 49 new illegal outposts
14:22
established just during the reporting period.
14:25
This involves taking land, organized violence against
14:27
Palestinians and the unlawful transfer of its civilian
14:30
population into occupied territory, moving settlers in
14:33
and the. Scale of this.
14:35
The numbers are stark. 7500 dunams of land appropriated for
14:39
Israeli interests. 214 Palestinian structures
14:43
demolished, displacing nearly 4500 people.
14:46
That demolition figure is up 194%. 194% increase.
14:50
Yes, and settler violence has intensified too.
14:53
Over 1400 reported incidents, often happening with impunity.
14:57
And sometimes, the report says, violence is even abetted by the
15:00
authorities. It paints a picture of
15:02
accelerating state linked territorial expansion and
15:05
violence. Given these incredibly serious
15:06
findings, aggression, potential genocide, systematic violence,
15:09
annexation, what are these international bodies actually
15:12
recommending? What should states do?
15:13
The recommendations are forceful, reflecting the gravity
15:16
of the findings. First, they say, states have a
15:18
legal duty to prevent breaches of the Genocide Convention.
15:22
That includes imposing a full arms embargo and sanctions on
15:25
Israel. A full arms embargo and
15:27
sanctions? That's major.
15:29
It is. There's also a call to formally
15:32
recognize Israel as an apartheid state and a persistent violator
15:36
of international law. They even suggest considering
15:39
suspending Israel's UN membership under Article 6 of
15:42
the UN Charter. Suspension from the UN.
15:44
That's on the table in these recommendations.
15:46
Also investigating and prosecuting companies and
15:49
individuals with dual citizenship who might be
15:51
involved in crimes, ensuring unhindered humanitarian aid to
15:55
Gaza. Fully funding and protecting
15:57
UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, are
16:00
immediate priorities and a direct call to the ICC
16:03
prosecutor to investigate these alleged crimes.
16:06
The Special Rapporteur, Elvenizi, sums it up starkly.
16:09
The state of Israel, she concludes, is predicated on
16:11
Palestinian erasure. This really circles back to the
16:14
question of state responsibility, especially for
16:17
something as grave as genocide. How does international law view
16:21
that? Can a state itself be held
16:23
responsible? Yes, and this is a critical
16:25
legal point. State responsibility for
16:28
genocide can be established even if no specific individual has
16:31
been convicted of the crime. The key is whether the overall
16:34
pattern of conduct by the state could only point to the
16:37
existence of such intent. So the pattern of actions
16:40
matters more than pinning it on one person.
16:42
Exactly. Things like the failure of state
16:44
bodies to stop violence, creating an atmosphere of
16:47
impunity, those are relevant factors.
16:50
Our sources suggest that the continuation of genocidal
16:52
violence and incitement even after the ICJ issued orders
16:55
against it, combined with actions by various Israeli state
16:58
bodies, are seen as demonstrating the state's
17:00
intent. So yes, the state itself can
17:02
bear responsibility. It's a powerful concept in
17:04
international law. 4 implications and future outlook.
17:08
OK, so let's pull back and look at the bigger picture.
17:10
We have these internal UN crises, the push for Palestinian
17:14
statehood, these massive legal challenges.
17:16
What does it all mean for the future, for international
17:19
relations, for the UN itself? Well, the UN is definitely
17:22
facing some hard questions about its own effectiveness, its
17:25
future. Richard Gowan, whom we mentioned
17:27
earlier, notes that because of these US visa restrictions,
17:31
there are actual rumblings of lower attendance at UNGA.
17:34
And it's sparking conversations about whether major global
17:37
meetings should even stay in New York, or maybe shift to other UN
17:41
hubs like Geneva, Vienna or Nairobi.
17:44
It could be eroding New York centrality.
17:46
Interesting, but could these crises also create openings,
17:49
opportunities for other countries, maybe from the global
17:51
S, to step up or reshape the system?
17:54
That's exactly what some analysts are suggesting.
17:57
O'Malley from Erasmus University points out that many global S
18:00
nations think Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia, don't
18:04
just see this as a crisis. They see it as an opportunity to
18:07
remake the system of global governance to suit their ends
18:10
more precisely. Remake the system.
18:13
Well, it's given new energy to those long standing calls for
18:16
reform, like expanding the permanent membership of the UN
18:19
Security Council, though, you know, there's still no clear
18:21
path for how to do that. Countries like China, for
18:24
example, have been seeking more influence for years, partly
18:27
through funding peacekeeping. This moment might accelerate
18:31
those shifts in influence. It really does feel like a
18:33
potential turning point, doesn't it, where crisis might force
18:36
change. It really does.
18:38
Thinking historically, the UN Georgia stage has seen some
18:41
incredibly dramatic moments. Hugo Chavez, Gaddafi, even
18:44
Donald Trump himself. Does this year's assembly feel
18:47
like it follows that kind of history making precedent?
18:50
What might it signal? You're right.
18:51
There's a history of theatrical, impactful moments.
18:55
Trump's 2017 speech threatening to totally destroy North Korea
18:59
apparently met with Turtles in the Hall, according to one
19:02
source. The tone this year might be
19:05
different, maybe more cautious, with leaders perhaps flattering
19:08
the mercurial US leaders, one source puts it, given the
19:11
political climate. But the substance, the deep
19:14
crises we've discussed, the huge shifts around Palestine
19:17
recognition, could absolutely make this a pivotal year.
19:20
It might even be, as Gallant suggests, a kind of swan song
19:25
for the tradition of the UNGA always kicking off in the US,
19:28
especially if these visa issues persist, it definitely signals a
19:31
moment where the world might be reconsidering where the real
19:34
center of global diplomacy actually lies.
19:36
It's certainly a period of intense flux, significant
19:39
tension, and potentially profound change on the world
19:41
stage. Well, that was quite the deep
19:43
dive into the 80th UN General Assembly and these really
19:46
significant shifts around Palestinian recognition.
19:48
We've seen how global events, national interest, those complex
19:52
international legal frameworks, they're all converging right
19:54
now. It's shaping our world in real
19:56
time. Absolutely.
19:57
It really throws into sharp relief the huge challenges in.
20:00
Lasting peace, but also these persistent, growing calls for
20:04
accountability under international law.
20:06
And it raises profound questions about the UN's own role and
20:09
future as it faces these, well, almost existential challenges.
20:13
As we've talked about, the path forward whether for A2 state
20:16
solution or for the UN itself seems full of obstacles, but
20:19
maybe opportunities too. It demands critical thinking
20:22
from all of us. So the question we leave you
20:24
with our listener is this, how do you see this balance of power
20:28
shifting in international diplomacy as these events play
20:32
out? And what role should
20:33
international law really have in trying to shape a more just
20:36
future? We really hope you found this
20:38
deep dive valuable today. If you enjoyed the discussion,
20:41
please do remember to follow Diplomacy and International
20:43
Relations by Bastion Fryborg on your podcast platform and rating
20:47
as five stars. That really helps us reach more
20:49
people and keep these important conversations going.
20:52
Thank you so much for joining us, and we look forward to our
20:54
next deep dive.