Latest / UK Column Radio / Trump’s Blockade Bluff vs Iran & China | Silk and Steel

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Trump’s Blockade Bluff vs Iran & China | Silk and Steel · UK Column Radio

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Speaker 1: How you doing, Carl, Hi, Jamar, how are you. I'm
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Speaker 1: glad to see you again. I was worried about you,
0:08
Speaker 1: you know, I haven't heard you for a long time
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Speaker 1: and and it was really good to hear your back.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, i fell off the cliff for a while, but
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Speaker 2: I'm okay, I'm back. I'm intact. Things are a little weird,
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Speaker 2: but I'm getting back to normal now.
0:24
Speaker 1: Man.
0:24
Speaker 2: I'm glad to see you, and I'm glad to hear
0:26
Speaker 2: from you, and I'm glad you are doing all right.
0:28
Speaker 2: And just for the audience, just so they know who
0:30
Speaker 2: you are, I'm pretty sure that they do, but in
0:33
Speaker 2: case on some phenomenal situation that they don't, we're joined with.
0:40
Speaker 2: I'm sorry. I've lost a lot of my vision and
0:44
Speaker 2: so these are now a necessity under certain circumstances. I'm
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Speaker 2: Karl Shahi's Silk and Steel podcast focused on China and
0:52
Speaker 2: surrounding areas or surrounding regions and their history, culture and
0:57
Speaker 2: political and their politics. You can follow Karl on Twitter
1:00
Speaker 2: at Carl Shop. You can follow this podcast on Twitter
1:04
Speaker 2: at steal silk in, and you can subscribe to support
1:08
Speaker 2: this podcast on Patreon dot com slash silk and still, Carl,
1:13
Speaker 2: you were the man I want to talk to today,
1:16
Speaker 2: especially with the news that is kind of bubbling up.
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Speaker 2: And I guess there are few points. I guess the
1:21
Speaker 2: first one of interest is the blockade. The second one
1:28
Speaker 2: is going to be of Taiwan and the meeting between
1:31
Speaker 2: Taiwan's opposition leader and going to China. But let's get
1:35
Speaker 2: to the blockade first. Does this affect China? And obviously,
1:40
Speaker 2: just in case someone was living under a rock over
1:42
Speaker 2: the weekend, Donald Trump, after failing miserably in his objectives
1:48
Speaker 2: in Iran, effectively losing another war, turns around and without
1:53
Speaker 2: being able to accomplish what he wants militarily, he screams,
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Speaker 2: since you're blockaded the straight of her moves, we're also
2:02
Speaker 2: gonna blockade it, and that blockade is gonna be super quipped.
2:09
Speaker 2: And the first thing I thought of was, Okay, this
2:11
Speaker 2: sounds very dumb because a lunch of strategy and their
2:15
Speaker 2: leverage is blockading the straight and you are coming in
2:20
Speaker 2: now and blockading straight does this effect or does this
2:28
Speaker 2: effect China? I mean, China came out with a statement
2:31
Speaker 2: effectively saying, leave us to our devices and do not
2:34
Speaker 2: intrude into our political affairs doesn't affect China anyway.
2:40
Speaker 1: Well, first of all, you know TROM carry out a
2:44
Speaker 1: lot of empty threat threats. You know he's he's he's
2:48
Speaker 1: gonna blockade the blockade? First of all, how is he
2:51
Speaker 1: gonna be right? I mean, for you wrong to blockade
2:55
Speaker 1: the straight or hoor moves, that's a established fact. They
2:59
Speaker 1: could do it because everything is within their missile range. Now,
3:03
Speaker 1: where is US Navy to set up the second block
3:06
Speaker 1: a line? Because anywhere from the mouth of Persian.
3:11
Speaker 3: Gulf all the way to you know, to the to
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Speaker 3: the to to to Old Man, that's that's within Irani
3:20
Speaker 3: missile range.
3:22
Speaker 1: It's no goes on for the US Navy. There's the
3:25
Speaker 1: reason the USS Abraham Lincoln, the US aircraft carrier attack
3:30
Speaker 1: that was sent to come from Iran, now hides itself
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Speaker 1: one thousand kilometers away from the Iranian coastline and it
3:39
Speaker 1: sits behind mountains in Old Man so it doesn't get
3:41
Speaker 1: hit by Iranian missiles. So how the heck is US
3:45
Speaker 1: Navy gonna carry out a blockade? And then further out
3:49
Speaker 1: of that blockade range in the Indian Ocean. Chinese Navy
3:54
Speaker 1: actually have several warships in the area there are they're not.
3:58
Speaker 1: They were there on the Root Team mission. Because China
4:01
Speaker 1: do operate a it's only over sea base in Djibouti,
4:06
Speaker 1: which is just around the corner near the Red Sea,
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Speaker 1: and the Chinese Navy has been in the area for
4:13
Speaker 1: routine anti piracy operations. So is US Navy gonna engage
4:21
Speaker 1: the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean? I mean, come on,
4:26
Speaker 1: I don't see that happening. That's that's too crazy. It's
4:31
Speaker 1: so so because we're talking about this because Raan is
4:34
Speaker 1: allowing Chinese tankers to go through. Right now, we have
4:39
Speaker 1: several Chinese oil tankers that just pat transit is through
4:44
Speaker 1: the straight Horn moves. Now, what's what's US gonna do?
4:47
Speaker 1: Are they gonna try to board those Chinese tankers us?
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Speaker 1: By the way, US did this back in nineteen ninety
4:56
Speaker 1: I believe it was nineteen ninety two. This is a
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Speaker 1: little incidentt the inca incident when a Chinese ship, not
5:05
Speaker 1: an oil tanker, but one of the ball carriers that
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Speaker 1: was sailing for Iran was stopped on the high well
5:13
Speaker 1: was intercepted on the high seat by the US Navy.
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Speaker 1: The way the US Navy did that was the cut
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Speaker 1: off the GPS signals, so the ship was essentially a
5:22
Speaker 1: drift at sea without navigation, and then US demanded that
5:27
Speaker 1: they were board. The US claimed the CIA claimed that
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Speaker 1: the Chinese ship was carrying chemicals precursors for making chemical
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Speaker 1: weapons for Iran, so they demand to board the ship
5:39
Speaker 1: to do a search, and China of course refused, So
5:43
Speaker 1: there was a standoff at sea for about a month
5:46
Speaker 1: thirty days. Eventually, US, Saudi Arabia, and China work out
5:52
Speaker 1: the deal where the Chinese ship will dock at port
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Speaker 1: in Saudi Arabia with a joined Saudi American team to
6:00
Speaker 1: words of ship to do inspection. And then they found nothing,
6:03
Speaker 1: and they found nothing, and the US complained down with
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Speaker 1: a trap that was the Chinese trap to discredit the CIA, uh,
6:09
Speaker 1: you know, and but that was that actually created a
6:13
Speaker 1: huge psychological impact in China. So first thing China did
6:17
Speaker 1: is they realized they cannot really rely on GPS anymore.
6:22
Speaker 1: That's something that United States has control over that can
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Speaker 1: turn off any time. So China embarked on building its
6:29
Speaker 1: own satellite system, the Bayto Navigation System, which incidentally that
6:35
Speaker 1: you wrong switched to, you know, after the twelve you know,
6:38
Speaker 1: even before the Twelve Days War, because Uran also realized
6:41
Speaker 1: they cannot really rely on GPS because United States will
6:45
Speaker 1: shut it off. So they switched to the Chinese Bayto
6:49
Speaker 1: Navigation system. And and as we have seen, uh, during
6:55
Speaker 1: this war, Iran has been pretty arrog accurate with their targeting.
6:59
Speaker 1: They knew what to hit, where to hit. Uh.
7:02
Speaker 2: You know.
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Speaker 1: Now there is some accusation from Washington that China is
7:06
Speaker 1: helping you wrong with satellite targeting stuff. But so what
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Speaker 1: I mean, what is United States gonna do?
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Speaker 2: Uh?
7:14
Speaker 1: You? Trump? Actually just there was a recent Wall Street
7:19
Speaker 1: journal He's a Wall Street Journal of Bloomberg or maybe
7:24
Speaker 1: FT report that claims that China is supplying you wrong
7:29
Speaker 1: with the shoulder fired yes, round to air missiles. Yeah.
7:37
Speaker 1: So and to that, Trump is saying, if China has
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Speaker 1: done that, if China has supplied weapon to you wrong,
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna slap fifty from China. Well, Trump might be
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Speaker 1: too short memory to remember he already lost a tariff
7:55
Speaker 1: war against China.
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Speaker 2: Now eighty percent.
8:02
Speaker 1: The humiliation buy you wrong at the straight or booze.
8:06
Speaker 1: He's asking for another humiliation for another round of trade wars.
8:11
Speaker 1: So again, you know, Trump is making threat all day
8:14
Speaker 1: and whether he carries out, who knows, and and how
8:16
Speaker 1: is he going to carry out? I don't even know, because,
8:19
Speaker 1: like I said, the whole uh like one thousand kilometers
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Speaker 1: from Uranian's coastline is no goes on for US Navy
8:27
Speaker 1: right now because it's while within the Uranian miss out range,
8:30
Speaker 1: and beyond that there's there's Chinese warships in the Indian
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Speaker 1: Ocean and they could potentially function as escort for the
8:39
Speaker 1: Chinese tankers. And if US do anything, this is twenty
8:43
Speaker 1: twenty six, this is not nineteen ninety two, nineteen ninety three.
8:47
Speaker 1: There's no way US will be able to forcibly forward
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Speaker 1: a Chinese oil tanker. There's no way China will allow
8:55
Speaker 1: that to happen. So, you know, the China does. The
8:59
Speaker 1: United States won to World War three. I mean, you
9:02
Speaker 1: can't even handle Iran. Forget about, you know, forget about
9:05
Speaker 1: confronting China. They're depleting their arsenal at the dangerously low level.
9:10
Speaker 1: Now it's been reported they have been they have been
9:14
Speaker 1: digging into the reserves. They have been saving for the
9:18
Speaker 1: big confrontation with China, you know, because they're they're just
9:21
Speaker 1: running low on ammunition, and there's no way they could
9:24
Speaker 1: replenish that because China also have the export control on
9:30
Speaker 1: rare critical minerals to the United States. You know, China.
9:35
Speaker 1: China has an export control on tungsten, on gallean, a
9:40
Speaker 1: whole series of critical minerals that US needs to go
9:45
Speaker 1: into its Patriot missiles, to go into cruise missiles, to
9:48
Speaker 1: go into F thirty five. I mean, at the at
9:53
Speaker 1: the current state of US in military industrial complex, it
9:57
Speaker 1: just cannot simply cannot rep plantage in time. So I
10:04
Speaker 1: my bet is this is just another one of Donald
10:06
Speaker 1: Trump's Sabanci's threat.
10:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Trump was either making this argument or
10:12
Speaker 2: apparently what they were reporting was that even ships that
10:17
Speaker 2: paid the toll, because if Iran is effectively setting up
10:20
Speaker 2: a toll system, in fact, you can make an argument
10:24
Speaker 2: they've already set up the total system, They've already formalized it,
10:27
Speaker 2: but they are I guess nailing it down at this point,
10:30
Speaker 2: and many of the countries around the globe are effectively
10:32
Speaker 2: saying they will pay the toll. Now, this is mind blowing, right,
10:37
Speaker 2: and I think people need to kind of accommodate this.
10:42
Speaker 2: This is a new norm going forward, You've gotten a
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Speaker 2: regional power that would have never done this, that has
10:50
Speaker 2: now enacted something that the US can't do anything about,
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Speaker 2: and that other countries are acknowledging facts on the ground
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Speaker 2: by effectively making deals in order to pay the tolls.
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Speaker 2: Now the US is saying we will entered it any
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Speaker 2: ship that pays the toll, which is again, I don't
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Speaker 2: know what that means. What are you gonna do, stop chips,
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Speaker 2: You're gonna board ships from other countries? Like, are you
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Speaker 2: really trying to claim that this is within your power
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Speaker 2: to do? That's wild?
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Speaker 1: Like that's a new normal and jamar you wrong. Is
11:27
Speaker 1: no longer a regional power. Trump has made sure Urrom
11:32
Speaker 1: is now a world superpower because you holds holds twenty
11:38
Speaker 1: percent of the world's energy supply, world's oil supply, and
11:43
Speaker 1: gas supply within its hands. And there's nothing United can
11:49
Speaker 1: things can't do about it because they they tried, I mean,
11:53
Speaker 1: there's no way they can somehow took this control away
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Speaker 1: from Iran R. That's in fact, Iran's key demands, one
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Speaker 1: of the ten demands is recognized Uran in military control
12:05
Speaker 1: over her straight over most and they wanted to enshrine
12:09
Speaker 1: it with that U and uh you and resolution, Yeah,
12:14
Speaker 1: think about it, that this is something that United States
12:17
Speaker 1: cannot accept because uh, because if US do accept the
12:22
Speaker 1: ten demands run, which included the United States pulling out
12:26
Speaker 1: it's all its military basis from Middle East and allow
12:31
Speaker 1: you Iran has a right to in rage you in
12:35
Speaker 1: rage ranion, lift all sanctions on Iran. So basically it
12:39
Speaker 1: means complete defeat of United States in the West.
12:45
Speaker 2: Like like complete and full capitulation. And I think and
12:52
Speaker 2: and correct people, I'm wrong. Maybe these things are related,
12:55
Speaker 2: maybe these things aren't. But Taiwan's opposition leader, well, I
13:00
Speaker 2: guess the few things before I get to that one
13:03
Speaker 2: is China, and hasn't been any reporting from the Chinese
13:06
Speaker 2: side about whether or not basically what we're in the
13:10
Speaker 2: cargo planes going to Tehran. I mean, look, it doesn't matter, right,
13:15
Speaker 2: I mean it does, but it doesn't. The United States
13:18
Speaker 2: has been supplying Ukraine forgotten knows how long your business
13:20
Speaker 2: supplying Ukraine. The US doesn't have a lake to stand on.
13:23
Speaker 2: They've been army Taiwan forgot. Said, so this doesn't matter,
13:27
Speaker 2: But I am curious on whether or not anything is
13:29
Speaker 2: in those cargo planes in the context of rearming or
13:32
Speaker 2: reloading Iran, and has been the Chinese.
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Speaker 1: Side about it. We don't know right now, you can't.
13:40
Speaker 1: You always have to take those Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg reporting,
13:46
Speaker 1: ft whatever those Western main stream media report. You will
13:49
Speaker 1: always have to take them with a generous salt, a
13:53
Speaker 1: lot of salt actually, because they usually quote anonymous US
13:58
Speaker 1: intelligence official, right. I mean, first of all, when you
14:02
Speaker 1: hear US intelligence, you should not trust it because US
14:05
Speaker 1: intelligence is oxymoron. There's no such thinggence. And then China,
14:16
Speaker 1: what we do know that China did supply Youran with
14:19
Speaker 1: chemical precursors that will need to make more missiles. I mean,
14:24
Speaker 1: China has done that before Twelve Days War. After twelve
14:28
Speaker 1: Days War, so we know Uran has enough raw material
14:32
Speaker 1: to continue with their missile production, which is not the
14:35
Speaker 1: same thing cannot be said about United States because China
14:39
Speaker 1: has a critical mineral rare earth ban export to United
14:44
Speaker 1: States military industrial complex. This is why the Pentagon is panicking.
14:48
Speaker 1: You know, every missile, the fire, every missile interceptor, the fire,
14:53
Speaker 1: every cruise MISSIUT the fire is one less in the arsenal,
14:57
Speaker 1: and that cannot be easily replaced because they don't have
15:01
Speaker 1: another alternative supply chain for those minerals. And and yeah,
15:07
Speaker 1: so so this is why. Yeah, like you say, it
15:10
Speaker 1: doesn't really matter. I mean, whether China did delivery those manpads,
15:17
Speaker 1: it's up to anybody's guests. But it actually makes sense
15:22
Speaker 1: for if if that did happen. He actually does make
15:25
Speaker 1: sense because the more bulkier, more sophisticated anti aircraft anti
15:31
Speaker 1: air defense like HQ nine, those are big targets themselves,
15:36
Speaker 1: and they also have to require extensive training. You know,
15:41
Speaker 1: the part takes like six months to a year two
15:44
Speaker 1: to train uh Uranian personnels and to have Uranian to
15:49
Speaker 1: be able to integrate it in their own system, because
15:52
Speaker 1: modern warfare is about system integration, and it would take
15:57
Speaker 1: it would just take too long. But manpads, those are
16:00
Speaker 1: you know, fire and forget. And it's very like Afghans
16:04
Speaker 1: were able to use those stingers to take down the
16:07
Speaker 1: Soviet helicopters. Yeah, and and those man paths present a
16:12
Speaker 1: credible threat to low flying aircraft, whether it's fixed wing
16:17
Speaker 1: aircraft or or helicopters. Uh and and this would having
16:23
Speaker 1: enough manpads at in hands will there will be a
16:27
Speaker 1: big deterrent to any US ground invasion you know, because
16:31
Speaker 1: this is something that Donald Trump has repeatedly talked about
16:33
Speaker 1: that he planned to do, and I think they did try.
16:37
Speaker 1: You know, this is this whole I don't believe that
16:39
Speaker 1: whole rescue pilot officials like Hollywood story that came out
16:44
Speaker 1: of the White House because Trump said, my.
16:48
Speaker 2: President is lying about a guy who ran, who's injured
16:52
Speaker 2: and ran to a great kilometers for twenty four hours.
16:57
Speaker 1: Is that what you're saying? What like like Trump himself said,
17:02
Speaker 1: they said one hundred and fifty three aircraft to rescue
17:05
Speaker 1: that down pilot. First of all, you need three aircrafts, right,
17:09
Speaker 1: I mean, like, why would you need one hundred fifty
17:11
Speaker 1: three aircraft to say one guy you want? You want
17:14
Speaker 1: like a top secret mission, go quick in and out right?
17:18
Speaker 1: Why would you need one hundred and fifty three aircraft
17:21
Speaker 1: out of which you have multiple C one thirty hercules
17:25
Speaker 1: military transport planes that's capable of carrying multiple helicopters and
17:32
Speaker 1: hundreds of special forces. I mean, And and it just
17:36
Speaker 1: so happened they all landed at the airport. It is Fahan,
17:40
Speaker 1: the place that you near where you have the new
17:43
Speaker 1: clear side, you know, and and all the timeline you
17:47
Speaker 1: look at you know, first week we got the leak
17:49
Speaker 1: that Trump authorized the graph of Uranian, you know, the
17:54
Speaker 1: special force to get you, which is the stupidest plan
17:57
Speaker 1: to come out of White House, which is saying a lot.
18:00
Speaker 1: And then you had the the p heads set firing
18:04
Speaker 1: or like twelve generals because they probably this is the
18:09
Speaker 1: dumbest iron whatever, and he fired the ball and the
18:14
Speaker 1: next thing, you know, within forty eight hours, you wrong
18:18
Speaker 1: shut down twelve US aircraft. I mean twelve US aircraft
18:22
Speaker 1: went down, right, just in a span of forty eight hours,
18:26
Speaker 1: and you know the whole story about them that they
18:31
Speaker 1: have to blow up their own aircraft because they the
18:35
Speaker 1: landing gear was stuck in mud. I mean, I don't know, man,
18:38
Speaker 1: I it's this is all too much Hollywood stuff for me.
18:41
Speaker 1: Like the heavily wounded pilot somehow was able to climb
18:45
Speaker 1: seven thousand, seven hundred feet mountain to hide himself in
18:49
Speaker 1: the crevices. This is like, this is this is like
18:53
Speaker 1: a top Goull Maverick stuff, right, I mean, like you
18:57
Speaker 1: know he had watch a Hollywood That's it. That's the
19:01
Speaker 1: plan we're going for.
19:04
Speaker 2: Put in mind of the whole the Gilligan, the skipper
19:09
Speaker 2: on an ss Meno blowing up nord Stream pipeline in
19:13
Speaker 2: the US had nothing to do with it. Puts me
19:15
Speaker 2: in the mind of that, right, it makes no sense,
19:17
Speaker 2: and yet that's what they're effectively selling because they don't
19:20
Speaker 2: want to own up to the fact that Aron Bluto's
19:22
Speaker 2: planes are They just can't accept it and that the
19:26
Speaker 2: mission failed miserably. You know, all of this stuff just
19:30
Speaker 2: was nonsense, Carl. Before I let you go, I have
19:33
Speaker 2: to get to Taiwan opposition leader in China that is
19:39
Speaker 2: a I'm fascinated by this story. And immediately after the
19:44
Speaker 2: opposition leader leaves China basically offers their ten point. I
19:50
Speaker 2: can't call it reintegration, but at the very least, it
19:52
Speaker 2: seems like a resume resuming ties of sorts. What's going
20:00
Speaker 2: on with this and is it related in any way
20:03
Speaker 2: to what seems to be a massive failure in Iran.
20:06
Speaker 1: Or I think you know what's happening in West Asia?
20:11
Speaker 1: It does serve serve alarm belt to all the so
20:15
Speaker 1: called US ally in Asia Pacific. You know, first of all,
20:20
Speaker 1: it showed that by hosting US bases that's by no
20:24
Speaker 1: way guarantee of your safety. You know, the reason for
20:29
Speaker 1: the US Empire alliances in West Asia is to provide
20:32
Speaker 1: a security shield for GCC countries. It turns out it's
20:37
Speaker 1: nothing of the sort. It was a liability. It gets
20:40
Speaker 1: these country bombed. And that's and when it comes to China,
20:45
Speaker 1: China has a magnitude more missiles, more advanced missiles than
20:50
Speaker 1: you Wan. Right, there's no if the United States cannot
20:54
Speaker 1: handle you wrong in West Asia, there's no way you
20:57
Speaker 1: can't handle China in West Pacific and all the US
21:01
Speaker 1: bases in surrounding China, it is going to be lit.
21:04
Speaker 1: They're all going to be lit. And and now all
21:07
Speaker 1: these other countries have to rethink their relationship with the
21:12
Speaker 1: United States. Now the this is the first Taiwan opposition
21:17
Speaker 1: so km T is a Taiwan's main opposition party. This
21:21
Speaker 1: is the first KMT to CEPC top leadership meeting in
21:25
Speaker 1: ten years, so it's quite significant. And and uh, you know,
21:30
Speaker 1: one of the things that she said me when actually
21:34
Speaker 1: said was we do not want Taiwan to be a battlefield.
21:38
Speaker 1: If you truly love Taiwan, you would not want Taiwan
21:42
Speaker 1: to be a battlefield. You can see what happened to Ukraine.
21:47
Speaker 1: We do not want to be a Ukraine in East Asia. Right,
21:52
Speaker 1: And and look at what happened after the war. Iran
21:57
Speaker 1: got kicked off. US missile interceptor got so depleted that
22:03
Speaker 1: they have to dismantle their that anti missile system in
22:07
Speaker 1: South Korea to ship them to to West Asia. Why
22:12
Speaker 1: because Israel is under pressure. And here we have South Korea,
22:17
Speaker 1: a country with fifty million people, one of the world's
22:20
Speaker 1: top ten economies. But US just said, you know, sorry,
22:24
Speaker 1: you're not important. We have to protect our Golden boy. Sorry, sorry,
22:30
Speaker 1: we have to take away those missle shields and move
22:33
Speaker 1: them to protect Israel, right, because that's where that's our
22:36
Speaker 1: top priority. This to serve alarm belt to all the countries.
22:43
Speaker 1: None of them can hope to compete with the golden
22:46
Speaker 1: boy Israel, right, And they like when the ship hit
22:49
Speaker 1: the fan, there are gonna be the one that that
22:53
Speaker 1: will be sacrificed by the United States. I mean that
22:56
Speaker 1: was a plan a lot. They The road is supposed
22:59
Speaker 1: to serve is as a missile shield to soak up
23:03
Speaker 1: enough Chinese missile. So let's Chinese missile hits the US
23:09
Speaker 1: Navy ships, right, and so so you know, send me
23:13
Speaker 1: what is just being smart about it, and and and
23:16
Speaker 1: she she's actually scheduled to visit the United States later. Yes,
23:22
Speaker 1: so she's actually this is very true politically because by
23:26
Speaker 1: going to China first and we're having a very well received,
23:30
Speaker 1: high profile reception. Now United States can't do anything but
23:35
Speaker 1: to be nice to her. She's telling the United States, hey,
23:39
Speaker 1: we have options. Look, we have options you China. You know,
23:44
Speaker 1: Chinese government, embrace us. If you don't be nice to us,
23:48
Speaker 1: you know, we our relationship could be jeopardized, and and
23:53
Speaker 1: so so so so politically it's it's a it's a
23:56
Speaker 1: smart move for her as well, and so so I
23:59
Speaker 1: think overall this is a positive trend in the crosstraight relationship.
24:05
Speaker 1: It also sets a tone that this is something whatever
24:09
Speaker 1: Taiwan issue is, it's something to be settled by Chinese
24:12
Speaker 1: people on both sides of Taiwan straight right like this is,
24:18
Speaker 1: this doesn't need to evolve another power outside power to
24:22
Speaker 1: butt themselves in.
24:24
Speaker 2: What do you think the chances of Kuman taking party
24:28
Speaker 2: taking power, Because I remember the last time we talked,
24:31
Speaker 2: you mentioned how it's like two opposition groups clashed in
24:37
Speaker 2: regards to meaning they pull books from each other, allowing
24:44
Speaker 2: the main party to effectually take power. So is it
24:47
Speaker 2: that there's a majority of Taiwanese that's effectively against well
24:52
Speaker 2: this kind of opposition to China, or is there a
24:55
Speaker 2: chance did you take power?
24:57
Speaker 1: President? The current quote unquote president of Taiwan, he won
25:01
Speaker 1: the election with forty percent of the votes, right because
25:04
Speaker 1: a sixty percent that voted against him. The opposition vote
25:08
Speaker 1: was split between two parties. So that's something that came
25:11
Speaker 1: to You still need to work out with the other party, TPP,
25:15
Speaker 1: on how they want to do this, how they want
25:17
Speaker 1: to be can be effective united opposition to DPP because
25:22
Speaker 1: most of people in Taiwan are sick and tire of
25:24
Speaker 1: the DPP party that have been ruling Taiwan for the
25:27
Speaker 1: last decades. And you know, Taiwan hasn't the economy hasn't
25:31
Speaker 1: gone anywhere, facing all the same problem that's facing the
25:35
Speaker 1: Western advanced economy, which is economic stagnation, diminished economic prospect
25:42
Speaker 1: for the young people, and like the really the bright
25:48
Speaker 1: light in the region is the growth of the Chinese
25:52
Speaker 1: economy next door, which they have failed to leverage. So
25:58
Speaker 1: this is why I think, uh, you know, potential, the
26:01
Speaker 1: potential is there for a KT KMT sweeping victory in
26:07
Speaker 1: November in uh November this year, if if they get
26:12
Speaker 1: their ship together to coordinate with other opposition party TPP,
26:17
Speaker 1: like because they can say, oh, in this city, uh,
26:22
Speaker 1: if the KMT has more chance to win than TPP,
26:26
Speaker 1: they can, you know, throw they can pull out their candidate,
26:29
Speaker 1: throw their support behind K and D. But another city,
26:33
Speaker 1: maybe the TPP candidate has better chance the KIMT. We
26:36
Speaker 1: choose their candidate and allow TPP to win over dpeople.
26:41
Speaker 1: So if that kind of coordinate, if they can carry
26:44
Speaker 1: out such coordination, there's a good chance to unseat the
26:49
Speaker 1: ruling party DPP from most of the mayoral elections in Taiwan,
26:55
Speaker 1: and that will pave a way for the presidential election.
26:58
Speaker 2: In one more thing before I let you go, we
27:02
Speaker 2: have about two minutes. What do you think this meeting
27:07
Speaker 2: between Trump and zging Ping is going to look like?
27:11
Speaker 2: Now that Trump has lost this war, and I'm putting
27:14
Speaker 2: in loss because the war is still going on, but
27:17
Speaker 2: I'm saying the US is obviously at a strategic disadvantage
27:20
Speaker 2: in regards to this conflict. They can't accomplish the objectives
27:23
Speaker 2: and the quote unquote blockade is a desperate, half ass
27:31
Speaker 2: fallback position, and I don't even want to call it
27:33
Speaker 2: a fallback position. The US went into this war believing
27:37
Speaker 2: that they could accomplish objectives. It failed miserably and accomplishing
27:41
Speaker 2: those objectives. And now it's like, okay, that failed, down,
27:46
Speaker 2: what are we going to do? Oh? I know that's
27:48
Speaker 2: still blockade. It's that right? How is he going or
27:54
Speaker 2: what is this conversation going to look like with Zjing
27:56
Speaker 2: ping a if this war is still going on or
27:59
Speaker 2: b if you outright lo Well.
28:02
Speaker 1: First of all, there's a reason Donald Trump delayed the
28:05
Speaker 1: meeting in the first place, because of the because of
28:08
Speaker 1: the Iraq war hasn't gone the way he wanted it.
28:12
Speaker 1: And and you know because originally, according to all the
28:16
Speaker 1: MAGA and Neil think tanks, you know, going after Venezuela,
28:21
Speaker 1: going after your wrong is really Trump playing the five
28:24
Speaker 1: D chest to choke Off's energies supply to China, right,
28:28
Speaker 1: And it turns out that didn't play with so well.
28:31
Speaker 1: So instead of going to Beijing with all the leverage
28:35
Speaker 1: of versijin being Trump is gonna look very weak. That's
28:38
Speaker 1: why he delayed the trip, you know, hoping that in
28:41
Speaker 1: the meantime, he can salvage the situation. But one important
28:45
Speaker 1: thing to know is it's American side that says, okay,
28:49
Speaker 1: this is a new date. Beijing has never confirmed the dates.
28:54
Speaker 1: The only thing the Chinese have said is we're still
28:58
Speaker 1: in talk with Americans about the scheduling. They're never confirmed
29:02
Speaker 1: the dates. So right now, I'm sorry. The Chinese government
29:06
Speaker 1: is much more credible than the Trump administration. China has
29:10
Speaker 1: confirmed the day. That means a date. You know, the
29:13
Speaker 1: media is going going forward on such said date. If
29:16
Speaker 1: just America said said such day, I'm sorry man, that
29:19
Speaker 1: that means nothing. Because until Chinese government official have confirmed
29:26
Speaker 1: the date of Trump's visit, it's still up to up
29:29
Speaker 1: in the air. You know, we still don't don't even
29:31
Speaker 1: know if it's gonna happen, so you know, we just
29:35
Speaker 1: have to wait and see.
29:38
Speaker 2: Interesting. Well, okay, fair enough, Carl Man. It is great
29:45
Speaker 2: to see you again. It is great. I always enjoy
29:48
Speaker 2: talking to you. Swear to God you'd be safe. Man.
29:53
Speaker 2: I have a really good night. Thank you for this.
29:56
Speaker 2: Thank you, And just so the audience would know before
30:00
Speaker 2: should go, Carl Jah always like to give audience an
30:04
Speaker 2: idea of who I'm talking to and again, since I've
30:08
Speaker 2: gone partially blind, I have to his glasses. Carl Jah
30:12
Speaker 2: he's host of Silk and Steel podcast focused on China
30:15
Speaker 2: surrounding regions and their history, culture, and politics. You can
30:18
Speaker 2: follow Carl on Twitter at Carl Jah, his podcast on
30:22
Speaker 2: Twitter at Steal Silk in, and subscribe and support this
30:26
Speaker 2: podcast at patreon dot com slash Silk and Steal. Carl.
30:31
Speaker 2: You're fantastic man. Thank you for this.
30:35
Speaker 1: Thank you anytime ahead.
30:37
Speaker 2: Be safe, all right, Carl shut out to