Latest / Talking Dawgs / SHOWDOWN IN AUSTIN: Week 2 College Football Best Bets
Transcript
- Daniel: It's week two of the college football season and we are back with locks. Clint last week was a very profitable week for the Enterprise. we went to the window several times. I plan on making many more return visits. Week w the early season is always the time when you w you cash in. As the season goes on, the the margins become a lot slimmer and so Clint: Hmm. Yep. Yep, yep, yep, yep. Yeah. Daniel: Like to get a lot of work done early. So glad that you're here. If you're here, make sure you're subscribed to the channel. Make sure you're subscribed to the newsletter. There's a link in the description. It's absolutely free. We send out a weekly newsletter. ⁓ as is our custom, we always start with a Georgia game, Georgia, Western Kentucky this week at Sanford Stadium in Athens. Clint, do you have a lock in this game? Clint: Did you tease me and say that you had a stone cold lock in this game? Daniel: I said earlier in the week Well, I told you I had a stone cold lock in the Texas Ohio State game. And I do, we'll get to that. But earlier in the week, ⁓ I did tell you I have a lock in this game and I r I regret nothing. I absolutely have a lock in this game. Clint, I'm nothing if not a learner. I'm a learner. I learn things. Clint: Yeah, no, I I knew that one was there. Yeah, yeah. You have a lock in this game. ⁓ here we go. He observes things, ladies and gentlemen. Daniel: I make observations and then I translate those observations into critical thinking. Okay? This team, this team isn't like those teams. This team in the car, you understand? Your foot's down on the gas, and then you lift it and you move it to the left. Clint: Well, see, that's the whole goal of being an adult. Nope, they're not. What Daniel: And you smash it down and it just hits the floorboard, Clint, because in this particular vehicle, there are no brakes. You can't this George offense cannot slow itself down. If you can't stop it, it won't stop. Western Kentucky cannot defend the run. They go up 323 yards to Nevada last week. Nate Frazier, Chauncey Bowens, Dwight Phillips are going to run all over this unit. Clint: Governor does not exist. Ooh bhutta. Daniel: And then we're gonna see if they give up three hundred and twenty-three yards to Nevada on ⁓ are on the ground, do you think the screen game's gonna work well against them? Do you think they're ready to absorb a block from Elias Williams on the perimeter? Do you think that's what they're prepared to do? Do you think they're that level of physicality ready? Okay. Georgia minus forty and a half. Lock it up. This is to me. Clint: I'll give you in this is to me. Daniel: This is the easiest this is one of my easier locks of the week. Clint: I have two locks in this game, Daniel. And they're both with Georgia points. Daniel: Yeah. Here we go. Clint: First half line twenty three and a half for Georgia. Daniel: Uh-huh. Yep, it was twenty eight to nothing after the first quarter last week. Clint: ⁓ go ahead and give me all of that action. So lock up Georgia twenty three and a half and then lock up the forty and a half team or the the total on this. Georgia full game. Right. Give me the half. Give me the full game. We can't stop, won't stop. The defense is gonna be humming along. Western Kentucky won't have the ability to even approach a run game. Georgia will. Like I like it's just Daniel: Yeah. Mm-hmm. Full game. No. No. Clint: It's gonna be another repeat of this. Give me both those spreads, first half and team totals. We we agree on that one, Daniel. ⁓ okay. ⁓ let's go to the other lock that you teased the people on that you you had in the offseason. You doubled down, you tripled down, you're not wavering. You don't care. Empirical data be damned because you had all the observation you needed in the offseason for Ohio State, Texas. You're sticking with your guns. Daniel: It's gonna be a bloodbath. It's gonna be a bloodbath. Mm-hmm. Game of the week. Clint: What was your pick then? What's your lock now that you've triple dog dared us to keep? Daniel: Yeah, I I don't understand how you're confused about this. This is okay, so I'll tell you. My bet that I hold right now is a Texas money line. And I have it at plus one hundred five. Got it in the offseason, Texas moneyline plus one hundred five. Right now, you can still get Texas minus one and a half. I don't understand how I don't understand who's back in Ohio State in this game. Clint: Good j good good juice. Daniel: On the road early season, Texas got all the talent in the world. Texas more talented than Ohio State. Full stop. Texas, I believe, this year, unlike last year, has the better quarterback in the game. I believe Arch Manning has finally become better than Julian Saiyan. He was not in this game last year. He was not better. Clint: Yep. Yep. Daniel: I think Texas is a more complete team. I think the Texas defense is better than the Ohio State defense. And I think the fact that this game is at home, it the fact that it's Texas minus one and a half means that Las Vegas is telling you that on a neutral field, Ohio State would be favored. I do not think on a neutral field, Ohio State would be favored. And so the fact that I'm only having to lay one and a half in Austin at night for the game of the year. Clint: ⁓ huh. That's what they're saying. Yeah. Yeah. Daniel: That you know full well Sark wasn't prepping for college football playoff bound Texas State last week. You know full well he was prepping for Ryan Day, just like Ryan Day was prepping for him. I think this is a Texas moneyline all day, every day. If you want to lay the money line, lay a little bit more juice, that's fine. Texas minus one and a half, I don't hate that either. Clint: No, he was not. Didn't care. Well here here's my problem with it. And this is where I wafer or I I waffled a bit. I wafered like I was some cracker. That's great. Good job, freaking idiot. I vanillaed that thing. Give me some ⁓ give me some nice banana jello with those, by the way, a little Daniel: Yeah, yeah, yeah. He vanilla it. Lord. Clint: Okay. Sorry, I digress. ⁓ Ohio State has the better you said they're the most more talented team. Daniel: Texas. I think so. Clint: Texas's defense is not nearly as good as Ohio State's defense. That's the area that's not there talent wise. See what? See what? It it's a hundred percent true. What do you mean? What do you mean? You're telling me the roster, the r I'm not talking execution. I'm talking from a talent standpoint. We've been down this road many times, okay? I d I don't I I don't know if you do. Daniel: See I don't know. I don't know if that's true. We'll see. We'll see. No. I understand. Yeah. Anyone can just take the reservation. Clint: Okay, I don't think that you do. Daniel: ⁓ I do. I do. I I don't know. I mean, you call me crazy. I just one. Clint: I I just did. Yeah. Daniel: I think Texas is better than Ohio State. I think Texas is a is a supremely talented team. Two, and this is a separate piece from one. I think Ohio State's a little overrated. I think of all the teams in the top five right now, Ohio State's by far the most overrated. I think by far they're the worst team of the best teams in college football by far. Clint: Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I don't I don't s I don't think you're wrong on that. I think their defense is better than Texas. I I'm gonna choose Texas, and I have a lock in as well. And it's the money line for Texas. I think Texas does pull it out. I actually think they pull away late by a good margin in this game. It could be another not to the same degree that LSU was against Clemson, but the same feel. Where it's like early on, three three interception thrown by LSU. You're like, ⁓ no, here we go. Okay. I it might be that, but late on. No, Texas gonna pour it on. Give me that as well. okay. I I got a couple of hitters for you. Old Dominion. If you don't know what old Dominion's about, okay? If you don't Daniel: Here he is. Here he is. He's a freight liner. They'll ship your stuff right across the country. Clint: Well, it does do shipping. Last year, ⁓ Daniel, they beat Virginia Tech, they beat Coastal Carolina, they beat Liberty, they beat App State, Troy, Louisiana Monroe. I mean, I I can go on and on against teams. South Florida, Virginia Tech comes in this year against Old Dominion, and they are Daniel: Uh-huh. Yep. Yep. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Clint: Giving eighteen and a half freaking points, Daniel. Daniel: Yeah. Darn near three touchdowns. Clint: And James Franklin says, D do you want more? Because I'm gonna beat you by twenty-eight. Freakin give me the hokies. Daniel: I I was just about to ask you, who is the coach of that Virginia Tech team that old Dominion beat? Clint: Give me the hokies laying eighteen and a half all day long. Virginia Titans gonna have a very good year. Daniel: I don't I don't hate that. I may go back and do it. James Franklin is great historically. It Penn State. He was great in spots like this. He always covers the big number. You understand James Franklin's MO? He can't win the big one. But you know what he'll do? He'll beat the crap out of the little guy. He will beat the absolute dog turds out of the little guy. ⁓ so I don't hate that bet. I'm gonna go BYU Arizona. Clint: Always. That's the problem. Yep. Correct. Let's go. Let's go. Daniel: Little West Coast action. Little Big Twelve af way before dark. ⁓ I'm gonna go the Cougars at home only lay in seven and a half. That hook is designed to get you off of the right bet. Lay ⁓ BYU by ten, fourteen, seventeen. I BYU's gonna run it up in this game. BYU's got a point to prove. Clint: Way before dark. It's gross. Digits. Daniel: BYU If it ain't Texas Tech lined up across from ⁓ I like BYU's chances. And last year that basically proved itself to be correct. Now, BYU has to play Notre Dame and every committee is going to be puffing up BYU until that game so that Notre Dame can look good. Wisconsin might be ranked this by the way, then this week's poll. There's a good chance Wisconsin will come out ranked after losing to Notre Dame. But Clint: ⁓ my gosh, yes. Daniel: I think BYU's really got is a legitimate team. Give me BYU minus seven. Clint: ⁓ slide over, you need company. Guess what? I'm there. Yeah, BYU di double digits I'm coming on as well. This is a game that if you I'm gonna say these two teams and and inside your your like your brain that's been trained, you're gonna hear the two teams playing, you're gonna think, Snoozefest, why do I care? You better be bet betting only one team. And I'm here to tell you that that 2026 is not the same thing as twenty eighteen, twenty seventeen, twenty sixteen. Daniel: ⁓ you coming on. Clint: Because Kentucky and Bama are playing together. Okay? Daniel: I'm aware. You have my intention? Clint: Bama looked undisciplined and completely disregarding anything that resembles fundamental football. They have talented guys. Is Coleman Williams now? Is that correct? Williams Coleman? Okay. Daniel: Purple Pirates. I don't know. I think it's Drops William. I think he put at the middle name is Drops. Clint: He who drops all the passes ⁓ is very talented when he can catch passes. ⁓ Russell is a real deal dude, but his accuracy on throws was not great. I think he's a physical freak. The accuracy wasn't there. Kentucky can run the ball, has an incredible offensive line, and Will is a good coach over there. They're getting 10 and a half points. They're at home. Double digits. Bama's not the same, they're undisciplined. Daniel: Correct. Clint: They're on the road. Early season. Russell's a freshman. Give me Kentucky in the ten and a half. I'll take them all day long. Daniel: ⁓ I'm joining you. Kentucky plus ten and a half. I like Kentucky's new coach. I think that they I think they're g I think they show a lot of promise. I ⁓ yeah. Am I nervous to back ⁓ in this spot? Absolutely am. But I will pay to see Alabama be good enough to win this game by double digits. Clint: Yes. That's a this is little test. This is a little like ⁓ let me let me get some sample size here. I just think the sample size is is gonna be a good return. I'm getting in while the money is low on this one. Cause I think later on this season if they played each other this game could be seven and a half ⁓ with the spread, six and a half, something like that. Daniel, where are we going next? Daniel: ⁓ I'm gonna keep it in the SEC. I'm gonna give you a two pack of SEC favorites. I'm gonna go Mississippi State on the road, laying a point and a half against Minnesota. Mississippi State's gonna be rowing their own boat up there. Then they're gonna be burning the boats, and then they're gonna be coming home the victors. ⁓ from a road game against Minnesota. I also like Mississippi State's coach. I like their quarterback. I think they have a talented I think they have some talented guys, and so Clint: Yep. Daniel: Yeah, am I gonna lay a short number with them on the road against Minnesota? Absolutely I am. And then Tennessee. Going to play Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is hot dog water, Clint. They're bad, bad, bad, bad, bad, bad. I don't care if it's a high school. I don't care if it's a high school sophomore starting for Tennessee at quarterback. Lay in twelve and a half, give me Tennessee. give me Tennessee, laying twelve and a half. Josh Heibold's gonna cover Clint: Bad. Bad. The Mendoza don't it it don't work. And I need them. Here's what's unique about week two, Daniel. And here's where I fear I feel all the confidence of the world. You and I got data. Our eyeballs hit teams. And then we go and we do our research and we try to find these locks and we go and get them and then we come together and we collaborate. And it just turns out that our eyeballs and our collaboration are in lock-sync unification because Mississippi State is going to take the oars and beat the bald head to death with them. Daniel: Yeah. Uh-huh. Yeah. Clint: And then Tennessee t he can throw six passes in this game. Georgia Tech has no backbone. It doesn't matter. Daniel: It won't matter. It Yeah Hey, does Josh Hypo wanna just is he Mike Lee is Josh Hypel Mike Leech? Is that is that the kind of offense he runs? ⁓ no. Josh Hypel wants to run the football, friends. He wants to run between the tackles. Do you know what Georgia Tech can't stop? The run. So ⁓ Tennessee's gonna run all over Georgia Tech. Clint: Run the dang football. Colorado seventy percent less size than Georgia Tech manhandled them. And Tennessee's a SEC school. I don't have to remind you what happened to the SEC. ⁓ Daniel, I have one more. How many more you got? Daniel: I have one more as well. It it and I I would be willing to bet it's the same one. So where where are you going? Clint: I got more logs on the fire. So we might wanna we might w we might wanna diversify to end Daniel: Okay. Okay. All right. Well you you round us you round out yours and then I'll give you mine. Clint: Okay, well I'm gonna I'm gonna zig hoping that you're gonna zag, okay? Daniel: Okay, sure. Clint: Kansas and Missouri are playing each other and it's a rivalry. Daniel: ⁓ I wouldn't touch this game with a fifty foot pole. No, I'm not. I'm interested to hear what you have to say in this. Thank you. Clint: Kansas scored a whole lot of points. They these two teams hate each other with the fire of a thousand sons. This is one of the most heated rivalries that no one knows is is like like families splitting over this rivalry. It is so scorching hot. ⁓ Mizzou is just is just the better team. They're just the better team. They're given five and a half. This should be a little bit more. I don't think Kansas has nearly the n amount of guys. Daniel: Yeah. Clint: Five and a half. I'm gonna go with what Vegas says in a heated rivalry is the better team because I think it's gonna go, it's gonna go lopsided either way. Either Kansas wins by two scores or Mizoo wins by two scores. And in that case, I'm taking Mizzou more often than not, probably 70% of the time doing it. So that's why I'm gonna lay the points at five and a half. Daniel, round us out. Daniel: I really thought you were gonna go Iowa, Iowa State. Who doesn't love a good Iowa, Iowa State? Bet. Clint: I I won't was saying. It's right it's right there. It's right there. The final one. That's I yeah, it's right. It's kinda like Apple Cup early on. These two teams, this is a big number. Daniel: Yeah. It's a big number for Iowa, Iowa State, isn't it? Clint: Huge. I've I haven't seen it this big. I can't remember the last time I saw it this big. Daniel: There have been there have been years where the where fourteen and a half points weren't scored in the game. Like ten to three we're talking about. So, it won't shock you to learn, Clint, with a number this big in a rivalry game early in the season. I'm gonna be laying it with Iowa. Iowa State sucks. They're bad. They're real, real bad. I think Clint: Whole game. Daniel: Iowa is going to absolutely dog walk them this year. 14.5 is not enough. I think the history of the rivalry is playing into this. This number should be more like seventeen. And so I'm gonna lay them with Iowa, fourteen and a half. Again, I'm I'm I'm not scared of the hook. Clint: Yep. Yep. Every player that you can think of played for the Cyclones last year is now in college station. Correct. Daniel: At Penn State. Yeah, that's where they live now. Yeah. Clint: So, ⁓ I I'm gonna I'm gonna join you. I d I didn't get Yes, lock up the Hawkeyes. Daniel, all season long, Talk and Dog's gonna be here. This is our locks episode, it's one of our favorite episodes to do. We're gonna be breaking down games every single week, giving you the newsletter. Get over the newsletter, sign up at Beehive, get in on the action, building community, talk to us, chat with us. We're here for it. Daniel, this is gonna be a great another classic week. Cause again it's it's football season. Yeah. Daniel: Week two better than week one. Week two low key better than week one, Clint. ⁓ I could not be more excited for this week's w slate of college football. Let us know either in the comments or or e or send us an email through the newsletter. Let us know what you're gonna be doing, where you're gonna be watching. Let us know what your locks are, what you are excited about, the matchups that you're excited about, what you like on our picks, what you don't like, etcetera. We'd love to interact with you. He's Clint, I'm Daniel, and we'll see you guys next time.