Latest / Politix / Prostate of the Union

Transcript

Prostate of the Union · Politix

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: I just think Obama in 2008, he did the right thing.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: He stood up and he told people, marriage is between a man and a woman.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's a matter of deep religious conviction.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: He believed that, Brian, in his heart.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: And I just love it.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: You just say what people want to hear, man.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: It's politics.
• 0:29
  Hey,
• 0:29
  everyone,
• 0:30
  you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: This week,
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: we'll break down the latest about the House GOP budget bill,
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: at least as it exists on Tuesday morning.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: What's in it?
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: Why are Republicans rushing it?
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Isn't this a little suicidal of them?
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: And then for members, we'll talk about the latest Biden news.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: So that's both the revelations in new books about his presidency and his
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: simultaneous diagnosis with metastatic prostate cancer.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: All of that's in this episode.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear the whole conversation,
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, everyone.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Politics Podcast.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boyler.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Glacius.
• 1:15
  So first quick housekeeping note,
• 1:17
  I will be traveling the next couple of weeks.
• 1:19
  So Matt will get you squared away with mystery guests that even
• 1:23
  I'm not aware of at this point.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: Just a broad panel of prostate cancer doctors.
• 1:33
  I personally would like you to fight with Matt Brunig about
• 1:37
  whether he's a
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: socialist or a moderate.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: I think that would be an interesting discussion, cross-ideological.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, prostates are good too.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Everyone loves a good prostate.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Also, happy birthday.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: What's it like being so much older than me?
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_01: I'm quite aged at 44.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: Seasoned, I like to think.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: You know, still ready to go.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: Still sharp as a tack.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you don't seem as existential about getting older as I am.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just constantly... This is my tack.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just constantly miserable about it.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: And you just...
• 2:20
  I feel that we are in the generation that will just have all of
• 2:24
  humanity wiped out
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: by artificial intelligence before we reach senescence.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_01: So I feel optimistic.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: early in the last campaign,
• 2:33
  you'd hear Jared Kushner and like they were all cozying up to
• 2:36
  the tech bros and
• 2:37
  would start saying ridiculous things like we're either going to
• 2:40
  be the last
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: generation to die or the first generation to live forever.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_00: And that sounded like,
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: bullshit,
• 2:48
  but that maybe it was bullshit that they had all kind of come
• 2:50
  to believe when the
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: truth is probably more like what you said.
• 2:53
  Like we're just going to develop the technologies and also
• 2:57
  break down the social
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: bonds that allow humanity to be completely obliterated.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'm in for that.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_01: Sounds good.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: But, you know, pivoting.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: Medicaid.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: To Medicaid.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to need it.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: So, okay, so... We should also just, like...
• 3:14
  We're a bit behind the eight ball again because we're talking
• 3:16
  about a GOP budget
• 3:18
  reconciliation bill that's having like a really rocky time
• 3:21
  advancing through the
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: House.
• 3:23
  And there's going to be a – there's supposed to be at least a
• 3:25
  pivotal vote on it
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: overnight,
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: before this episode goes live.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: And it's already been voted down.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: In the budget committee.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: I would say – No, no, no, no.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: They're on to the rules committee, right?
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: They did the budget committee in the middle of the night on Sunday –
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: And now they're going to rules.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: Like, so it failed in the budget committee.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: They took two days.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: They got it together.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: It passed the budget committee.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Now they're going to the rules committee.
• 3:46
  where there's a bunch of crazy right-wingers who might vote it
• 3:49
  down again,
• 3:49
  but maybe not.
• 3:51
  And so you might be listening to this tomorrow and it will have
• 3:54
  failed again,
• 3:55
  or maybe not.
• 3:56
  I would also say this is not exactly a strategy that
• 4:00
  Republicans have hit on,
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: but by continuing to advance the bill through procedural hurdles,
• 4:08
  while also continuing to get into trouble with the bill so that
• 4:12
  the bill keeps
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_01: changing...
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: they are succeeding in making it difficult to like develop a clear,
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: in a political message,
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: you want to pick on a line that you think is good and that you think is
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_01: substantively defensible and politically effective.
• 4:32
  And then you want to like say it a lot across a range of
• 4:36
  different mediums so that
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: people hear what you are saying and start to internalize it.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: But they do keep kind of
• 4:44
  switching between like what it actually does and what's
• 4:51
  actually in it in a way
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: that's making that challenging.
• 4:56
  I mean,
• 4:56
  I think their strategy is to try to get members to give sanded
• 5:02
  down
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: statements about what's in the bill.
• 5:05
  They're trying to instill them all to say there's no Medicaid
• 5:09
  cuts in the bill.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: And then a couple of members of Congress,
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: knowing that this is false,
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: have slipped and talked about the Medicaid cuts in the bill.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: But that's to the end of...
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: Like advancing it,
• 5:22
  advancing and advancing it through one procedural hurdle after
• 5:25
  another so that at
• 5:26
  some point it's a do or die proposition and members will have
• 5:32
  to decide whether to
• 5:33
  deny Donald Trump any accomplishments or just pass the thing
• 5:37
  that they said that
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: they wouldn't pass.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the strategy, right?
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: They're lying to their own members about the idea that,
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: oh,
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: we're going to get another bite at this.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Eventually, they will have to decide one way or another.
• 5:48
  And the hope is that the pressure will be too great on those
• 5:51
  members that are being
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: lied to right now to vote now.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: But I just mean,
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: a week ago,
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  SPEAKER_01: I was saying,
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_01: if you take out the accounting gimmicks,
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: this is $6 trillion in new debt.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_01: But they then changed it.
• 6:03
  $6 trillion in new debt and like X harsh Medicaid cuts that we
• 6:09
  discussed on the show.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: But since last time, they've changed it.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's now like, quote unquote, only $5 trillion in new debt.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: But the Medicaid cuts have become harsher.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_01: And I believe the snap cuts have also become bigger.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_01: So it's like, you know.
• 6:27
  The same in the sense that it's a very large increase in debt
• 6:32
  and harsh cutbacks in
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: programs for low-income people.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: But the actual numbers keep shifting around,
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: so it's hard to just drive home exactly what it is that's going on.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: They've also hit on a sort of a Medicaid...
• 6:47
  cuts formula that kind of like tosses a hot potato to the
• 6:52
  states rather than
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  SPEAKER_01: mandates specific cuts.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: So they're sort of like distancing themselves from what's going on,
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: which again,
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: doesn't lighten the impact in reality,
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  SPEAKER_01: but has the effect of
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  SPEAKER_01: Just like making it harder to explain,
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: making it harder to deliver real clarity about what's going on.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_01: The Trump administration has also,
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_01: you've seen this on tariffs as well,
• 7:20
  but they have successfully muted public criticism of their
• 7:25
  legislation from
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: institutions that are opposed to it.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_01: You are not seeing the hospital association aggressively involved.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_01: No, they are against it.
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  If you go to their website,
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  there's a thing that's like,
• 7:45
  don't cut Medicaid.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_01: Call Congress, urging their members to do that kind of lobbying.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: But you are not seeing...
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: The Hospital Association,
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: standing with Hakeem Jeffries at a press conference,
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  SPEAKER_01: being like,
• 8:01
  SPEAKER_01: this is bad,
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: guys.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: Like, don't do it.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, it all means that we're continuing to sort of...
• 8:10
  Do you think that Jeffries and the Democratic leadership are
• 8:13
  trying to make those
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: moments happen and they're just being told no?
• 8:16
  Or do you think that Democrats have just forgotten how to array
• 8:23
  all stakeholders
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  SPEAKER_00: that oppose something
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: I believe that they are,
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: in fact,
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: trying and that,
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: corporate America,
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: not just corporate America,
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: but just like parts of America that are not ideologically,
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: like fundamentally opposed to Donald Trump.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: Have decided that they strongly prefer Trump.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: behind the scenes engagement to strong public criticism.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a K street thing, right?
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: It's like,
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: it's,
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: it's,
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think like less about ideology and more about the,
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: if our guys will be shut out of the Hill,
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: we'll be shut out of the white house if we.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_01: But, but, but I mean that like Harvard, right.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: Is like a bunch of stakeholders who like genuinely hate Donald Trump.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: So,
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 9:19
  when they decide the Trump administration is doing something
• 9:21
  they don't like,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: they are,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: quite public about it,
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: and,
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: actually,
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: we're taking a stand.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: But,
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: yeah,
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: I think people have decided that,
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_01: the optimal way to lobby Trump is to kind of,
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: finagle through it.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: again,
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_01: to be clear,
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: their perspective,
• 9:40
  continuing the fight to protect Medicaid and access to 24-7
• 9:43
  hospital care for
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: patients and communities is
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_01: It's like a long denunciation of this legislative text.
• 9:49
  They have a meeting coming up in Nashville,
• 9:52
  you know,
• 9:52
  for all their membership,
• 9:53
  July 20th,
• 9:54
  22nd.
• 9:55
  SPEAKER_01: If this is still going on by summer,
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: I anticipate they will be mobilizing opposition there.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_01: But it is just this is a deeper set of cuts with less attention.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: than I would think.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: And then also,
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: the media is,
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 10:14
  it's interested in stories that are just like bad for Democrats
• 10:17
  that we'll talk
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: about back down.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: But
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_01: has never found kind of like ordinary quote unquote legislation to be as
• 10:26
  SPEAKER_01: interesting as like this cutter jet deal.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: Which is like a scandal.
• 10:32
  It's not a it's not a quote unquote scandal that you're
• 10:35
  increasing the budget
• 10:36
  deficit by five to six trillion dollars while taking health
• 10:39
  insurance away from
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: millions of people.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't go against our norms.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't involve any impropriety.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: Congress is clearly allowed to cut programs and rewrite tax laws.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_01: But this is a big deal for a lot of people.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_01: Rural hospital systems will have to cut back service.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_00: I wonder how much of the industry, the muted industry response has to do
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: This is not like the Affordable Care Act,
• 11:09
  which is building a new thing that was going to roll out in
• 11:11
  phases and kind of like
• 11:13
  wire itself into every facet of the healthcare system such that
• 11:16
  you needed to kill
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_00: that bill before it passed or absent like intervention from the courts.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: It was just going to reshape your whole industry.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is like-
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to cut a bunch of money out of this.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: And crucially, this is what I suspected Republicans were going to do.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to do it in the out years.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to do it in – not the out years, like past the budget window.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: But at first they were trying to start the Medicaid cuts in 2029,
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_00: so like after Trump was out of office.
• 11:44
  And then when the right-wing House Republicans were like,
• 11:48
  no,
• 11:48
  that's not –
• 11:50
  uh,
• 11:50
  aggressive enough,
• 11:51
  immiserating a poor people,
• 11:52
  they moved it to 2027.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_00: So after the midterms, right.
• 11:56
  And I think that there's like probably some sense that if we
• 12:00
  don't pick this fight
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: now,
• 12:01
  we're going to have a cliff and we're going to be able to use
• 12:04
  the existence of this
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: cliff to pressure lawmakers,
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: to soften the cuts or delay them further or whatever.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think one area where you're specifically seeing this is, um,
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_01: There was a lot of different stuff in the Inflation Reduction Act.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_01: They are going to repeal – definitely going to repeal a bunch of it,
• 12:23
  like mostly subsidies to consumers to buy electric cars and
• 12:27
  other kinds of things
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_01: like that.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: But there was also these tax credits for clean energy –
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_01: that were always temporary and then would get extended when they expired,
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_01: sometimes extended retroactively.
• 12:41
  And so one of the things that the IRA did was it kind of like
• 12:47
  cleaned up and
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: unified the investment tax credit,
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: production tax credit,
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_01: into like two big things for nuclear,
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: for wind,
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: for solar,
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: carbon capture,
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: a whole bunch of stuff.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: And it made them permanent.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_01: So the bill as written will...
• 13:04
  eliminate those tax credits,
• 13:06
  but it's going to eliminate them with a delay.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_01: There's a couple dozen Republicans who've been saying,
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_01: we shouldn't eliminate these tax credits.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: And I know one of the things that's being whispered on the Hill is,
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_01: Don't worry about it, guys.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: You can vote for this thing that will kill projects in your district.
• 13:25
  And then you'll have like multiple years to just get these
• 13:28
  extended on a bipartisan
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_01: basis with Democratic votes because they love clean energy.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: And we've done this many, many times.
• 13:36
  And then you also have conservatives saying the opposite,
• 13:38
  which is like,
• 13:39
  if we delay...
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: The ITC, PTC repeal, it's never going to happen.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: We want to accelerate the extent to which it's phased out.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: So again,
• 13:48
  this is why Committee for Responsible Federal Budget says the
• 13:52
  fake cost of this is
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_01: $3.7 trillion.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_01: But they think the real debt impact is more like $4.8 trillion.
• 14:00
  But everyone is left in a little bit of guessing because they
• 14:04
  are telling different
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_01: things to different people.
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_01: about like what's quote unquote really happening.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: Does the CRFB analysis include the questions around salt?
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: Cause that's not even like the house bill says what it says,
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: but like,
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: but like,
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: there's still a fight about that.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: There's also like zero Senate Republicans who give a shit about salt.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: this is just the current,
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 14:32
  draft tax without this salt stuff that they're still working up
• 14:36
  in the House.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: it says,
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 14:39
  their latest is like changes move reconciliation bill in the
• 14:42
  wrong direction
• 14:45
  because they are talking about making the salt provision even
• 14:48
  more expensive,
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_01: which could push it up to $5.2 trillion.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: You know, it's all quite bad.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: We should also say that interest rates keep going up.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: okay,
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: so I want to get to the suicidal question in a second,
• 15:02
  but do you think our listeners deserve a little three-minute
• 15:07
  explanation of salt
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: and the main argument for it,
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: the main argument against it?
• 15:16
  Because I feel like at some point or another,
• 15:18
  people like us just started referring to SALT.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 15:21
  I think wonky people mostly think the SALT deduction was a bad
• 15:24
  idea in the first
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: place,
• 15:26
  SPEAKER_00: and it's fine that it's gone.
• 15:28
  But there's a countervailing argument that I sometimes think
• 15:33
  has some merit to it.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: So SALT refers to state and local tax deduction, which was...
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: casualty of the first Trump tax bill, right?
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: Well, to an extent.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 15:48
  they capped how much of your state and local taxes you could
• 15:51
  deduct from your
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: federal taxes,
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: which is not a big deal for most people,
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: but a very big deal for people in...
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: California, New Jersey, New York, and I guess here in DC, right?
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: Well, so, okay.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: So I want to clarify sort of two points of this, right?
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_01: So there's pre-TCGA,
• 16:06
  you could deduct your state and local taxes from your federal
• 16:11
  income tax bill.
• 16:13
  This was a very regressive tax break because any tax deduction
• 16:21
  is more valuable if
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: you're in a higher tax bracket.
• 16:24
  But also states with high state and local taxes tend to have
• 16:28
  progressive state and local taxes.
• 16:31
  So if you're like a millionaire living in a high-tax state,
• 16:36
  salt was worth a lot to you.
• 16:38
  And if you were a middle-class person living even in a very
• 16:42
  high-tax state,
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: it was not worth that much to you.
• 16:46
  TCGA made two changes to this that are relevant,
• 16:50
  one of which people tend to forget about.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: They greatly increased the standard deduction.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: So because of the increase in the standard deduction,
• 17:01
  SPEAKER_01: many fewer people itemize their taxes at all.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: Especially people in the bottom half of the income distribution,
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: like almost never need to itemize taxes at this point.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: And a lot of people in the top half also don't.
• 17:16
  So that really knocked out a lot of the value of SALT for like
• 17:21
  a typical middle
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_01: class person,
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: even in a very high tax state,
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: because you're taking the standard deduction anyway.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: They then capped SALT at $10,000, right?
• 17:31
  So if you are itemizing and you owe $10,000 or less in state
• 17:36
  and local taxes,
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_01: you get your full SALT.
• 17:44
  But if you're over the $10,000 cap,
• 17:47
  you can only deduct what's left,
• 17:50
  right?
• 17:51
  So Republicans and Democrats from these high-tech jurisdictions
• 17:55
  have been arguing
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: for lifting or eliminating the SALT cap.
• 18:00
  That's incredibly regressive at this point because so many
• 18:04
  fewer people are
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_01: deducting at all and also because you get 10 grand worth anyway.
• 18:11
  So I think if you look at it sort of as tax policy,
• 18:15
  right,
• 18:16
  it's pretty hard to defend.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 18:19
  the only people it benefits at this point are wealthy because
• 18:23
  of the higher level
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: of the standard deduction.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: what you could say on its behalf,
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: is that it's regional policy,
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_01: right,
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_01: that like allowing SALT –
• 18:39
  SPEAKER_01: reduces the extent of tax competition across jurisdictions, right?
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_01: So for wealthy people,
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: yes,
• 18:51
  SPEAKER_01: wealthy people are the subject of this,
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_01: but state governments need to worry,
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_01: If we raise taxes on multimillionaires in New Jersey,
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: maybe they will move across the river to Pennsylvania,
• 19:05
  right?
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: Or,
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: maybe people will leave California,
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: they'll go to Texas,
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_01: So SALT greatly mutes interjurisdictional tax competition.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_01: The reason why,
• 19:18
  because like conservatives never want to raise taxes on rich
• 19:21
  people under any
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: circumstance at all.
• 19:24
  I sometimes hear it said that like the reason conservatives are
• 19:27
  happy to kill salt
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_01: is because they want to like stick it to blue states.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: That's like semi-true.
• 19:33
  But I think the real reason is that they want to intensify tax
• 19:37
  competition across
• 19:39
  all states because they believe in the long term we will end up
• 19:42
  with lower taxes on
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: the rich if we get rid of salt.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: And that's the case for doing salt is that it reduces tax competition.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_00: What you said is true,
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: and it overlaps with my conception of it,
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: but the argument that I've heard from people who are progressive,
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: and many of these progressives who support the...
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: like increasing the salt deduction would benefit from it personally.
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: So like,
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_00: I keep that in mind,
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: but like the idea is basically a federalist one,
• 20:13
  which is that if the States are these supposed to be these
• 20:15
  laboratories of
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: democracy and we've got these big populous States,
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: big wealthy States,
• 20:19
  and they want to try to make their States like effective
• 20:25
  bastions of progressive
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: government,
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: such that they have high,
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: high state taxes and they plow that money into services and
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_00: they are harmed if they can't deduct,
• 20:37
  if citizens can't deduct those high taxes from their federal
• 20:40
  taxes and actually
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_00: like make this a place where,
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_00: where,
• 20:45
  where the citizens can vote for representatives who will enact
• 20:48
  far reaching
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_00: progressive things and blah,
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_00: blah.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that that's true, like on its, on the face of it.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_00: It,
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: I still think that it's a bad idea for all the reasons you let out,
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: like the regressive impact of it.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: But that argument is not just pure bullshit.
• 21:14
  I think the question that Democrats have to sort of think about
• 21:20
  for themselves and
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: search their hearts and maybe convene some meetings with think tanks,
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 21:25
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: is that this is not like just about salt, right?
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's like it's bigger than salt.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: If you ask a Democratic Party tax,
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: budget,
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: whatever,
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: Wong,
• 21:41
  they will say that it is important to have a redistributive
• 21:47
  national welfare state,
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: That taxes wealthy people and gives money to poor people.
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_01: And that it is therefore good that the federal government organizes very,
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: very,
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: very large ongoing transfers from New York,
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_01: New Jersey,
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: California,
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 22:07
  SPEAKER_01: to West Virginia,
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: Kentucky,
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_01: Mississippi,
• 22:10
  SPEAKER_01: Alabama.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: Those people will also tell you that it is very,
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_01: very,
• 22:15
  very good and important for the federal government to tax
• 22:20
  people who work and spend
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: a lot of money on supporting people who are retired.
• 22:25
  And so that therefore it is good and appropriate that we
• 22:28
  transfer lots and lots and
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_01: lots of economic resources from California,
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_01: New York,
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_01: New Jersey,
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_01: Connecticut to Florida in particular,
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: Like that's the view, right?
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: Like a consensus view,
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_01: like centrist Democratic wonks,
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: progressive Democratic wonks,
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_01: like everybody agrees with that.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_01: When I talk to like,
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_01: quote unquote,
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_01: like normie Democrats,
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 22:51
  like just both people living their daily lives and people who
• 22:55
  are like very online,
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: very interested in politics,
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_01: I hear a lot of resentment of those interregional transfers.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_01: And every once in a while,
• 23:04
  this will pop up that a frontline Democrat from the Hudson
• 23:09
  Valley or suburban New
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: Jersey or something will be like,
• 23:13
  these fucking Yahoo Senate Republicans are squeezing my
• 23:19
  constituents while their
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_01: states are leeches off of our economic productivity.
• 23:23
  And then everybody yells at them that that's not what the
• 23:26
  Democratic Party stands for.
• 23:27
  The Democratic Party does not stand for the regional economic
• 23:31
  interests of
• 23:32
  America's vital and vibrant economic hubs in the Northeast and
• 23:37
  Pacific Coast.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I think there's just a real tension among...
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats as to like, as to like how they feel about that.
• 23:47
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, so you're right about this, but it's not because of the money.
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_00: I really don't think,
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: it is for some people,
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: obviously,
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: but like,
• 23:54
  I don't think that what drives the bitterness is so much the
• 23:57
  redistribution as the
• 23:59
  fact that the people being redistributed to and their elected
• 24:02
  representatives are
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_00: assholes.
• 24:05
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I agree with that.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to be like J.D.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_00: Vance and be like, did you say please and thank you for this money?
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: But it is true,
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_00: as you say,
• 24:14
  that wonk-approved federal policy will on many levels siphon
• 24:21
  money out of rich blue
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_00: states and deliver it to poor red states.
• 24:27
  And it is true that the people from those regions elect
• 24:30
  representatives who –
• 24:32
  trash blue states and also try to find new ways to punish red
• 24:38
  states despite the largesse.
• 24:40
  SPEAKER_00: Like Trump,
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_00: if there's an earthquake in California,
• 24:43
  will try to figure out a way to fuck California on top of
• 24:46
  everything else.
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_01: I completely agree.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's like the first choice that Democrats have, right?
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_01: Like what they want is for that dynamic to stop.
• 24:58
  They want the senators from Medicaid expansion red states to
• 25:07
  put their foots down
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: and say,
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: no,
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: no cuts to Medicaid.
• 25:10
  SPEAKER_01: We're done with that.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: This is really good for our states.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: Barack Obama was right.
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_01: And they then want,
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_01: the Deep South Republican state legislatures to,
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_01: get smart and accept the Medicaid expansion money.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_01: And to then say, like, we have decided that, like, this is good.
• 25:25
  And then to,
• 25:26
  like,
• 25:27
  stop being jerks,
• 25:28
  you know,
• 25:29
  about Blue America,
• 25:29
  et cetera,
• 25:30
  et cetera.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_01: What I'm saying is, is that, like, when I first started hearing...
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: You know,
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: the electoral map of 1992 and 1996 was really,
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_01: really different from the modern day one.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_01: You know, and like Clinton won West Virginia and lost Virginia.
• 25:51
  Yeah.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, you didn't have this dynamic at all in the 90s.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_01: It snapped into being in the 2000 election.
• 25:59
  And even though the map has shifted since 2000,
• 26:02
  actually the basic dynamic has stayed the same.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_01: Like Colorado has gone from being a red state to a blue state,
• 26:08
  but it's also gone from being a below average income state to
• 26:11
  an above average
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: income state.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_01: And so we're now like 25 years into this dynamic.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_01: And it's not 2007 anymore where I can be like,
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_01: Bush is unpopular.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_01: Like maybe after we beat him, like the alignment is going to change.
• 26:26
  SPEAKER_01: It's like clear that this isn't going to change.
• 26:29
  And so I do think that like the democratic brain trust needs to
• 26:35
  like put some thought into this.
• 26:37
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 26:37
  do we want to alter the fiscal federalism deal of the United
• 26:42
  States in some kind of
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_01: systematic way?
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_01: Because the SALT deduction on its own is,
• 26:48
  SPEAKER_01: is like a,
• 26:50
  I think like a fairly poorly designed instrument for trying to
• 26:55
  address these
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_01: regional equity concerns.
• 26:59
  SPEAKER_01: And it's actually worth thinking about,
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:02
  SPEAKER_01: how we really feel about the structure of Social Security and Medicare,
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_01: because it annoys me that
• 27:09
  to see not so much the rich to poor transfers,
• 27:12
  but the working to retired transfers.
• 27:15
  Ron DeSantis has this economic model in Florida that is based
• 27:20
  on external infusions
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: of funds to a population of retirees.
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: So that now, I mean, most people in Florida aren't retired.
• 27:29
  But the export industry of Florida is essentially providing
• 27:34
  personal services to
• 27:36
  retired people who are mostly earning their livings in states
• 27:40
  that have stronger
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_01: systems of higher education and other kinds of things like that.
• 27:46
  And I think there's a real question about that that blows up in
• 27:52
  these kind of
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_01: slightly off-the-mark Hakeem Jeffries tweets about SALT.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_01: When there's just like a bigger question about like, where do we stand?
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think this is like a pretty profound thing.
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_00: Like I don't want old people to not have dignified retirements,
• 28:10
  but I don't want bad faith actors like Ron DeSantis pretending
• 28:14
  he's like God when
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_00: what he really is is like a leech who then like smacks the people who are
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_00: subsidizing him in the face.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe I look,
• 28:26
  I know how to solve the problem is that you just abolish states
• 28:28
  and you just have a
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_00: federal government and city governments and that's it.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: To pull this back to the tax bill,
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: though,
• 28:33
  like part of how this whole dilemma used to get resolved is
• 28:40
  that Republicans were
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: saying they wanted to cut Social Security and Medicare.
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 28:44
  Trump has electorally done the GOP an incredible favor by no
• 28:50
  longer saying he wants to do that.
• 28:53
  But he hasn't restrained Republicans' plutocratic tax-cutting
• 28:58
  ambitions at all.
• 28:59
  But then he's also tossed on these kind of like populist
• 29:03
  tax-cut ideas about no
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_01: taxes on overtime and stuff.
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_01: So what he's come up with is this bill that just is like –
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 29:12
  I could also write a politically popular tax and spending bill
• 29:16
  if I didn't care
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_01: what the numbers added up to,
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_01: which is how George W.
• 29:22
  SPEAKER_01: Bush did things in a way.
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: And it's how Trump did things in 2017 in a way.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_01: But we're in a different...
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_01: situation now.
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I'm talking the 20-year bond rate just ticked up over 5% on CNBC.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_01: Not to say it'll shoot up much,
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: much,
• 29:39
  SPEAKER_01: much higher if this bill passes,
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_01: but part of why it's going up is that financial markets are saying,
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_01: oh,
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: they are probably going to pass,
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_01: if not this exact,
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_01: incredibly irresponsible tax bill,
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_01: something similar to this incredibly irresponsible tax bill.
• 29:58
  There is no consideration being given to doing a tax bill that
• 30:02
  is within light
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_01: years of being deficit neutral.
• 30:07
  They've taken over at a time when people are upset about
• 30:11
  inflation and about
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_01: interest rates,
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_01: and they're just like,
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_01: we're
• 30:15
  SPEAKER_01: We don't care.
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_01: We're not addressing those cost of living and concerns at all.
• 30:21
  We're just making things worse because we have a bunch of
• 30:26
  conflicting priorities
• 30:27
  and the way to resolve those conflicts is to add four to six
• 30:32
  trillion dollars in
• 30:32
  SPEAKER_01: debt.
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_01: And it's bad.
• 30:35
  SPEAKER_01: I'm concerned.
• 30:36
  SPEAKER_01: I have a floating rate mortgage and I worry.
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_01: I used to think that rate will likely go down and if not,
• 30:47
  SPEAKER_01: probably stay the same because inflation is declining.
• 30:51
  So there will be downward pressure on interest rates and we're
• 30:54
  just wondering how much.
• 30:56
  But now I'm concerned that I am going to be on the hook for
• 30:59
  escalating sums of
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_01: money and I am not the only one in that boat.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: Man, you really suckered yourself, didn't you?
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_01: Fucked it up, man.
• 31:08
  I just,
• 31:09
  like...
• 31:11
  I think that...
• 31:11
  Look,
• 31:11
  like,
• 31:13
  I think that...
• 31:13
  I believed in doge.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: Republicans are trying to...
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_00: they're doing something that is,
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_00: in one sense,
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: very familiar,
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: which is,
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: like...
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_00: taking votes and stuff in the dead of night when people aren't watching,
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_00: trying to hide the,
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 31:29
  the contents of the legislation from people to the greatest
• 31:32
  extent possible.
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_00: They're being extremely aggressive about it this time around.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_00: Like Jonathan Cohn at the Bulwark has a,
• 31:39
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 31:40
  SPEAKER_00: has a good piece on how an unusually,
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: cloaked and,
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_00: um,
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_00: and concealed that this process is to,
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_00: to the point where like they,
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_00: they passed a bill to the budget committee and nobody had text,
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 31:54
  and that was like Sunday night at one in the morning or
• 31:57
  something like that.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, part of the calculus is the usual calculus.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_00: When you're doing something unpopular,
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_00: you don't want people to take much notice,
• 32:07
  SPEAKER_00: and you want to get it off your plate as quickly as you can.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_00: I think that for...
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_00: So Mike Johnson, maybe he wants to give Trump a quick victory.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_00: He promised to get it onto Trump's desk by Memorial Day.
• 32:23
  Now I think the goal is to get it out of the house by Memorial
• 32:26
  Day,
• 32:27
  which is Monday.
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think that there's another factor here, which is the debt limit.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I've been... That's in this, right?
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_01: There's just a debt limit provision in this beautiful bill?
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_00: I haven't scoured the text of the bill.
• 32:46
  SPEAKER_00: The instructions,
• 32:47
  the reconciliation instructions allow them to increase the debt
• 32:50
  limit in this bill.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: So if it's not in there, I think it doesn't really matter.
• 32:54
  SPEAKER_00: I think that the idea remains...
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: plug ahead,
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: plug ahead,
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_00: plug ahead,
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_00: and then present the reluctant members with a fait accompli,
• 33:04
  SPEAKER_00: part of which is just about,
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_00: do we want to be seen failing in this way?
• 33:07
  SPEAKER_00: But the other part of it is, we need to raise the debt limit.
• 33:10
  And so they can use the threat of default to get their own
• 33:18
  members to support a
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: bill they don't like.
• 33:20
  But they could also end up blowing up the fucking economy and
• 33:23
  not passing the bill.
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I feel like I've alluded to this in a few pieces.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_00: I should probably just write it up.
• 33:33
  It's like we need more updated information about when the debt
• 33:37
  limit is coming due
• 33:38
  SPEAKER_00: because the most recent information from CBO is outdated,
• 33:44
  SPEAKER_00: I think.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 33:46
  And like Doge has hampered IRS collection capacity and the
• 33:57
  slowing economy has
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_00: probably,
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_00: but maybe not because people made a lot of purchases,
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_00: reduced collection.
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I don't actually know how to...
• 34:08
  Between August and early October is what the Bipartisan Policy
• 34:12
  Center says,
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_01: with a wide range of uncertainty.
• 34:16
  SPEAKER_00: But when did they publish that analysis?
• 34:19
  SPEAKER_00: Because Bipartisan Policy Center does one, CBO does one.
• 34:24
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 34:25
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, wait, Scott Besant did an estimate recently.
• 34:31
  Oh,
• 34:31
  no,
• 34:31
  he said they will be coming out with an estimate soon from
• 34:34
  Treasury.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_00: It's a Chekhov's...
• 34:39
  SPEAKER_00: default gun.
• 34:41
  SPEAKER_00: And I,
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_00: I like,
• 34:43
  I feel like the coverage of it is not like it's anyone's fault
• 34:48
  or that anyone's
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_00: doing a bad job,
• 34:50
  SPEAKER_00: but just that when you're,
• 34:52
  when your beat is follow this bill and you're not like piecing
• 34:56
  together how it,
• 34:58
  how it would affect interest rates and how it would do this and
• 35:00
  how it would do
• 35:00
  SPEAKER_00: that.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_00: You might miss that.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: one essential piece of the,
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_00: A,
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_00: the strategy to get it passed,
• 35:05
  SPEAKER_00: but B,
• 35:06
  like a potentially a confounding variable that might cause the
• 35:08
  whole thing to
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_00: collapse,
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_00: is this debt limit.
• 35:11
  SPEAKER_00: And this debt limit has been floating.
• 35:12
  SPEAKER_00: And like Trump has...
• 35:16
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 35:16
  SPEAKER_00: taken pretty aggressive steps to,
• 35:21
  that could in theory fuck with revenue collection and that
• 35:24
  could hasten the debt
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_00: limit.
• 35:25
  SPEAKER_00: And we just like,
• 35:26
  when is this thing going to hit is like a big question that
• 35:29
  pertains to whether
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_00: this bill passes.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: And also like,
• 35:34
  SPEAKER_00: like are Democrats going to be ready to say,
• 35:36
  SPEAKER_00: you got to do this on your own,
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_00: no help from us.
• 35:39
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 35:40
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the alternative is that Democrats are,
• 35:45
  SPEAKER_01: need to put down a specific blueprint.
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 35:48
  SPEAKER_01: We should talk about this on a future show.
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_01: I have somewhat conflicting instincts about this.
• 35:53
  I think that the reason you are seeing such intensive battling
• 35:59
  about these like
• 36:00
  SPEAKER_01: semi-fake committee votes is that I think most Republicans...
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_01: understand that whatever the current text of the bill is,
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_01: at some point in July,
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_01: everybody's going to start screaming that they have to pass it.
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: And they're going to pass it.
• 36:20
  And nobody's 100% sure what,
• 36:22
  quote unquote,
• 36:22
  it is going to be as of mid-July.
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_01: So that's why there is this kind of furious...
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_01: scrambling to keep getting things in and out and changing it,
• 36:34
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_01: in a way that doesn't make a ton of logical sense.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_01: I see people being like,
• 36:39
  why are people fighting hard for the inclusion of provisions
• 36:42
  that won't go anywhere
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_01: in the Senate and whatever?
• 36:45
  But it's because nobody knows what the status of the hot potato
• 36:49
  is going to be the
• 36:51
  SPEAKER_01: moment markets start panicking around this.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: But whatever it is, they're just going to...
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_01: They're just going to go do it then.
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's good.
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 37:01
  that could be really hard because if it's in the Senate and
• 37:03
  like Republicans use a
• 37:05
  bunch of non-budgetary goodies and decorations to get House
• 37:10
  Republicans to vote for
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_00: it,
• 37:12
  those are going to be subject to points of order under the
• 37:19
  Senate reconciliation
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_00: rules and have to come out unless Republicans want to,
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: in effect,
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: abolish the filibuster.
• 37:26
  and say you can put basically anything you want in a
• 37:27
  reconciliation bill from now on.
• 37:30
  They've been very reluctant to do anything like that as
• 37:35
  pertains to non-budgetary items,
• 37:38
  right?
• 37:39
  They're happy to play games with tax cuts and phase-ins and the
• 37:43
  10-year window and
• 37:43
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 37:44
  SPEAKER_00: but not so much like you can put your favorite regulation in a budget
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: reconciliation bill and then overrule a parliamentarian,
• 37:53
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 37:56
  Which is a long and in the weeds way of saying that if it's
• 38:04
  July and it's like,
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_00: oh shit,
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_00: we got to raise the debt limit,
• 38:06
  SPEAKER_00: so this is the bill we got to...
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_00: pass it as it is so that we don't default on the debt,
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_00: that might actually entail breaking the whole Senate budget system.
• 38:17
  And then we're kind of in a new world where if Democrats ever
• 38:22
  get a trifecta again,
• 38:24
  they don't have to think in terms of budget bills versus the
• 38:29
  other stuff they want
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_00: to do.
• 38:30
  They can just literally put the whole agenda into a
• 38:32
  reconciliation bill and say,
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_00: under the new precedent,
• 38:36
  SPEAKER_00: it's all going in here.
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_01: Yes,
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_01: I would just say that I feel like we've been ping-ponging toward this,
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 38:44
  SPEAKER_01: bigger and bigger and bigger.
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, to the point where, like, this is like a joke, right?
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_01: Where,
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 38:49
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats had Build Back Better,
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_01: BBB,
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: which,
• 38:53
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 38:54
  SPEAKER_01: had no topic because it was just a bunch of miscellaneous shit.
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_01: And then this one is also BBB, Big Beautiful Bill.
• 39:01
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, BBB.
• 39:02
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because it's like even more miscellaneous.
• 39:06
  SPEAKER_01: And at some point,
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_01: I do hope everyone will read Adam Jentleson's book,
• 39:10
  SPEAKER_01: Killswitch,
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_01: about the filibuster.
• 39:12
  And like ask themselves,
• 39:13
  like,
• 39:15
  do we want to like make everything into like loopholes?
• 39:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 39:21
  SPEAKER_01: So that now all of politics is just finding the loopholes?
• 39:24
  Or do we want to admit that this is a bad way to govern and
• 39:27
  people should just
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_01: write normal bills and pass them by majority vote?
• 39:32
  SPEAKER_01: Because this is insane.
• 39:34
  I don't want to be one of these like,
• 39:36
  the bill is 7,000 pages long and nobody's even read it.
• 39:40
  There are just many very disparate topics that are under
• 39:43
  treatment in this bill.
• 39:45
  And there's no reason other than Senate procedure that
• 39:48
  Republicans don't just
• 39:50
  put separate bills on the floor and actually somewhat different
• 39:54
  groups of people
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_01: might vote for them based on the content,
• 39:58
  SPEAKER_01: which is like how it's supposed to work.
• 40:02
  It's like really drives everybody insane to like yoke together
• 40:07
  97 basically unrelated things.
• 40:11
  SPEAKER_01: That's my two cents.
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: I agree with it.
• 40:14
  SPEAKER_01: Should we talk about our prostates?
• 40:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 40:17
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about your prostate.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_00: Mine is a big secret.
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's my birthday.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_01: It was, and I'm, well, I'm developing concerns.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_01: You got to pay.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_01: You got to pay for this info.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_00: For the most disgusting politics conversation we've ever had,
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.