Latest / Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update / 1.3% Inflation Jump, Markets Don’t Care? | S3 E130 | 03-25-26

Transcript

1.3% Inflation Jump, Markets Don’t Care? | S3 E130 | 03-25-26 · Markets with Megan: A Quick Financial Markets Update

• 0:00
  Megan Horneman: We know this data is from prior to the start of the I war Iran war conflict, but we do think it's important to go over some of the data that we've been getting in, especially on the inflation front before the war actually started.
• 0:13
  Megan Horneman: That is Wednesday, March the 25th, and this is Markets with Megan.
• 0:16
  Megan Horneman: If you like this podcast, you can subscribe, hit the alarm bell, share with your friends, family, or colleagues, anybody who wants to understand on a regular basis what's going on in the market and what's moving the market, specifically the economic data that we get regularly.
• 0:30
  Megan Horneman: So, as we mentioned, the data that's been coming in is data that does not reflect what's been happening over the past couple weeks.
• 0:37
  Megan Horneman: So most of the data is from either January or February.
• 0:41
  Megan Horneman: But what we did receive this morning was the import and export price index.
• 0:46
  Megan Horneman: And this is these are inflation indicators.
• 0:48
  Megan Horneman: They they often go unnoticed.
• 0:49
  Megan Horneman: And by the market reaction today, they have gone unnoticed because people focus more on that consumer price index or the PCE core.
• 0:57
  Megan Horneman: But this is important because what we saw this morning is that import prices, and remember, we import most of the stuff that we consume.
• 1:05
  Megan Horneman: Um, import prices rose 1.3% for the month of February.
• 1:09
  Megan Horneman: It was expected to rise only 0.6%.
• 1:11
  Megan Horneman: So basically double what the expectation was.
• 1:15
  Megan Horneman: It's the biggest month-over-month increase that we've seen since 2022.
• 1:19
  Megan Horneman: Now, while it was mainly due to petroleum and natural gas prices increasing, when you exclude those energy prices, you still saw prices rise significantly, 1.2%.
• 1:32
  Megan Horneman: And that was also the most since 2022.
• 1:35
  Megan Horneman: And I highlight 2022 because that was a period that we were in very high inflation.
• 1:41
  Megan Horneman: And we've been starting to see some information come in where some of the inflation indicators are the highest we've seen since 2022.
• 1:49
  Megan Horneman: So the Fed needs to keep a close eye on this.
• 1:51
  Megan Horneman: This was mainly made up of an increase in capital goods, which actually saw the largest monthly increase on record, and then consumer uh merchandise as well.
• 2:01
  Megan Horneman: So this doesn't reflect what's going on with the war.
• 2:04
  Megan Horneman: We do we do think there's going to be more upside pressure to pricing pressures as we get the filter through in the coming months of the March data, the April data, and when as we see energy prices hovering where they are right now.
• 2:17
  Megan Horneman: Now, like I said, there's been no market impact.
• 2:20
  Megan Horneman: Um, equity markets are higher today, uh, primarily because oil is lower, interest rates are lower, but also there has been some talks between Iran and the US.
• 2:29
  Megan Horneman: Uh, we're not super excited about the talks that have occurred thus far because it's really a no deal for both sides of the table in the current status that the the talks have been in.
• 2:39
  Megan Horneman: That's all that we have today.
• 2:41
  Megan Horneman: We'll be back uh to the with some more information this week.
• 2:44
  Megan Horneman: It's a really light week from an economic data uh standpoint, but we will get the final reading on consumer confidence this week.
• 2:50
  Megan Horneman: So that'll be interesting to look at as well.
• 2:53
  Megan Horneman: If you want a history of podcasts, you go MarketsWithMegan.FM.
• 2:56
  Megan Horneman: Thank you.