Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Stocks will go CRAZY Tomorrow + Stock Market News 20 May 2024

Transcript

Stocks will go CRAZY Tomorrow + Stock Market News 20 May 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: I think we're finally live, aren't we?
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Yes, brilliant.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know why the heck that happened.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Youtube said there was a stream on and it wasn't on and you couldn't see me.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: I was talking to myself and I thought I was sounding very intelligent with what I was saying.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: All righty, let's get cracking.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you tuning in Big week this week.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: I was a bit worried at the end of last week.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I thought we might be hitting a ceiling here, but the data, the market positioning, has changed over the weekend and I want you to understand it.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So you are the best informed investor out there.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to run you through that.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I'm going to explain that to you.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Of course, we'll also look at NVIDIA, and the big things happening this week will answer all your questions.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: All you've got to do is smash the you-know-what and let me share my screen with you here and just double-check that you are actually here.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, brilliant, all right, there we are.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: We finally managed to find ourselves in the same spot, which is good, so I appreciate you hanging around for a bit of a tech glitch, you know, just to make life a little bit more interesting.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Okay, one thing I'm running a live trading session tomorrow?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Because there are a lot of people out there who don't understand how the money market really works.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: They don't really understand how we can trade in an almost fully automated way in a couple of hours a week and potentially make very, very nice returns Like we did 20, 22, 126% last year, 105% return on capital employed and I'm promising you about 90 minutes of teaching you the strategy that I use every week that we've taught thousands of people that hedge funds use, and it's way, way simpler than you think.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: And once you understand this you'll be like, hey, that's what they do.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: That kind of makes sense.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: So come and join me Felix Rensenhoek's webinar tomorrow, live and we'll have some fun.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Now a couple of things that are happening this week that are big.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Fed Chair Powell speaking yesterday was a bit of a non-event, didn't really say much.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: Got Paolo Alto reporting today.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: It was a bit of a non-event, didn't really say much.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Got Paolo Alto reporting today.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: If you're into cybersecurity, macy's tomorrow, lowe's tomorrow that's going to be a big indicator on.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Is the US consumer heading for the darkness, the misery, or do they still have a little bit of gas left in the tank here?
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Yellen also speaking Not sure if that's going to be that relevant.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: We'll see if she talks about debt and then Wednesday target.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: So again, more consumer data.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, the big one, nvidia earnings on Wednesday.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: That's the event that's going to make or break this week in this rally.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Now I will put out a full video on that just before, probably tonight, and walk you through the actual numbers, because there's a couple of things that are really important in terms of trend here.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: But in a nutshell, I am expecting them to beat, just not as much as in the past, and then, just to make Wednesday a little bit more interesting, we get the FOMC minutes out from the Fed and that tells you how did those Fed presidents vote at the last minute?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: How hawkish, how dovish have they turned?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: That's going to be really, really important.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Jobs data Thursday we always get that and then we get into this here the cool wall moved up.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: What the heck does that mean?
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Moved up, what the heck does that mean?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So there is something in the market that is essentially the positioning of the market, and last week that was at 5,300.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: And we hit it twice and we closed just above it at 5,383.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: So it's a spot on call there.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: On the resistance.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Now I was a bit worried because last week, which was the third Friday of the month, lots of options expired.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: It's like one of the biggest options events of each month and then typically after that the markets become a bit more volatile.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: So it could go up more, it could go down more and I was thinking, well, what if you go down a bit more?
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: But the market gods that are the market makers and so on, seem to be positioning now at 5,400.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: So we now have potentially 100 points upside here and that's very, very bad, very, very bullish, even right.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: We like that a lot and you can follow that kind of data if you go into options watch and you can open the visualizer here.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: You could look at SPX, which is the S&P, and then you can see for when she loads.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Let me zoom out a little bit here.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: You can see for each day in green here the resistance and where it starts to come in.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So 5,325 a bit, but then it starts to move up to 5,400.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: And if you go out to the end of the week, 5,400 is now the biggest little knob that we've got there.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Go to the end of the month.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: 5,400 is now the biggest little nop that we've got there.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Go to the end of the month.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: There it is a bit more clear.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Right, 5,400.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So the market has shifted up.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: The market is feeling more positive and bullish, which, of course, is glorious and it's important to understand.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Let me just find when did you go.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: There's a little window here.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: Let me just find when did you go.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: There's a little window here.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Most of you are still stuck in the other.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I did close the other channel and redirected them over here, so hopefully people will find their way over here.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: If you do find your way over here, smash the like button and they'll know that you're here.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, brilliant.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Let's dive a little deeper, then, into what else we've got going on here.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: So, pre-market, we're looking pretty good.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Amazon's up a poor percent, tesla's up a percent and a half.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Amazon's in the green Berkshire, jp Morgan's green, amd is green.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: So why the heck is NVIDIA down two percentage points?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: Well, what do you do when something really risky is about to happen?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Do you try to avoid the risk or do you go?
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Yay, I love risk.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Most people will swerve around it slightly, and that's exactly what we're seeing here swerve around it slightly and that's exactly what we're seeing here.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Two days before earnings, massive move expected about 100 points up or down.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: And again you can see that in options watch.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Just type in NVIDIA and zoom out a little bit.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: This thing moves so bloody much it's hard to keep it on a chart.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: And you see that blue box here, that one there in the background.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: I've drawn it in here as well.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: So that's the expected range for NVIDIA stock this week, which is quite a lot, right Up $100, down $100, basically, and that's pretty monumental and therefore people are going.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to be part of the roller coaster.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: I've made a lot of money on the way up.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Why don't I take some profits off here, wait and see what happens and then maybe rejoin the party on Thursday?
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: That's honestly a smart move.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: You could also hedge your position so you could just say buy a put option, I'll protect you, but that would cost you a bit of money.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: So somewhere down here it still costs you like $1,000 or something like that.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: If this is going to be really, really dreadful, then you would make money that would help to protect you, but for most people probably just de-risking is the simplest strategy right here right now.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I see your questions, chaps.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Ian loves risk.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, well, not everybody does.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, it's probably not the best place, generally speaking, de-risk.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: So I trade, right.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: What do I do when I trade?
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I look for the lowest risk, highest reward rate.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: I don't look for the multi-bagger.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: I look for the consistent, boring small profits, again and again and again and again, that I can replicate.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: I don't look for the like God, that thing could make me a gazillionaire.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I might see those occasionally and put $100 or $1,000 or something.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: If it gets wiped out it doesn't really matter.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: But for the majority of trades, 98% of what I do is like it's boring.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: It's really boring and that's what you want.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: That's how you make money, you know you.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: You want a reliable income, right?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: You want a reliable income stream.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: You don't really want to go to this casino.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: At least, if you want to go to the casino, you probably shouldn't be trading.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Let me know any questions you have Put them in the chat here and, of course, do come and join the live trading session tomorrow.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: There it is.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Felixfrenzorg slash training, and it's completely free of charge.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Helix Trends at all slash training and it's completely free of charge.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: You don't need to know a thing you don't even need to have a brokerage account if you don't want to.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: If you already do trade, I think you'll get a lot out of it.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: If you've never traded before, I think you're going to get a ton out of it.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: So come and join us over there.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: In terms of what's what's happening today, a lot of the Fed boy band is on the road.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Five Fed speeches today and then another four, five, six, seven tomorrow, which is just madness, and they will probably try and talk the market down a little bit.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: They come out a little bit, you know, puff their chest and go.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Well, we're going to be going to be a little bit conservative here.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Puff their chest and go.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Well, we're going to be a little bit conservative here.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: But the clue will be in the Fed minutes on Wednesday and we'll see what they say.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Iran, iranian's president is dead, died in a helicopter crash.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Now, before somebody screams, oh my God, this is the end of the world and World War Three coming, and so on, think this through.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: This is not the guy who runs Iranian foreign policy.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Their president is not the head of the country.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: There is a supreme leader above that.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, when leaders are supreme.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: You know you're in a basket case, but so it's kind of like president, supreme leader, and yes, this president was in the running to become the next supreme leader.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of an interesting story.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: But the guy who he was going to run against is the son of the current supreme leader.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: So if you're looking for somebody who's fiddled with the brake pads, then it's possibly that other guy, rather than Israel or something like that.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: So markets seem calm about it.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Oil hasn't exploded, which is generally a pretty good indicator of madness in the Middle East.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Oil is actually down at $79 here today.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: So I don't think this is as big a story as people make it out to be.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Most of us don't particularly care about Iran's domestic politics, right?
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Not really a big issue for us, so I wouldn't really give this too much attention here.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Fed Bar, one of the ones talking here.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: He thinks we should hold rates steady.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's better than saying they should go up Wall Street.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: If you've seen this, they're going to settle stocks faster.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: At the moment, when you buy a stock, you don't actually own it for two days.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Seriously, that's the settlement period and they're going to cut that down to one day, so it's going to get a bit quicker.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I still don't understand why it takes a whole freaking day.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I think they should do it in a second.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: But you know small steps and all that kind of thing.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I think those are basically the big stories there from Wall Street.