Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 4

Transcript

The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 4 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football season is here,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting at FanDuel because they've
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: got an app that's safe and easy to use. Plus
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: they have all the markets I'm looking to bet, like spreads,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: life betting, player props, same game parlays and more. So.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Use promo code Favorites and download the FanDuel app today
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: to make every moment more this football season. You must
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: be one and over in select states. Call one eight
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia one eight hundred, next step
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: or text next step to five three three four two
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: in Arizona one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: seven seven seven or visit c CpG dot org slash
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: chat in Connecticut. One eight hundred nine with it in Indiana,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: k S Gambling help dot com in Kansas one eight
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louise, Sianna one
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight Hope NY or text Hope n
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Y in New York, Tennessee Redline is one eight hundred
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: eight eight nine nine one D five hundred in Wyoming,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: of the Action Network. I am joined as I am
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: in every episode by my co host, my bff, my companion,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: my compadre, professional better signment hunter Shad. What a glorious
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: day it is, nice fall day up in the Northeast.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling it, man, It's right at the edge of
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: what I want to turn the heat on in my
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: my glorious office slash studio. Look, we gotta nail down
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: our final five today. We've got to give people a
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: big balls better the week. Um, I will remind everybody
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: our Fox will bet this week was Ravens plus three
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: and a half. That's down to three personally, Simon, I
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: still like the Ravens in this spot at plus three.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: What say you? I mean, we'll talk about it more,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: but yeah, we're I'm all in. I like, I like
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be definitely one of those people knew right
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: away that probably be on our money Line Round Robin.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: It's just we like the Steelers at minus three. The
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: exact decision used the Simon says with Steelers minus three,
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: exact decision Jack's plus six and a half. Our early
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: survivor pick was green Bay, but we will get to
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: a second survivor pick if people have already chosen green Bay.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: Follow all these in the Favorites podcasts, handle in the
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Action Network app Alright, Simon, we're gonna get to big balls.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: We gotta get to our final five, but first let's
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: get to the sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking somebody.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: What do the wise guys say after they listen to
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: our podcast about our picks? Not too much hate this week.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: I think that the boys like most of our picks.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: A couple that I gotta reach out to. It just
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: about what they're betting, what other pros are betting, and
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: where they're really taking a stance this week. Again, some
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: weeks groups don't bet heavily. In some weeks they do.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: And that's just kind of how it is, Like, you
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: really do pick your spots. Me and chat to talk
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: all the time about money management. You literally don't need
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: to bet anything this weekend you literally have all the power.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: But we're all gonna bet. We know that, So money management,
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: make your spots, don't don't overdo it on one game.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: The big game is Seattle. The most amount of pros
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: I've talked to love this Seahawks position against a Detroit
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: team that they do think they have talent, but was
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: swift out with a couple of injuries they've had to
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: their defense. They just see a little bit of weakness
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: in a team that, come on, now, should they really
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: been catching six and a half? Six points and then
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: four and a half's still a lot to them. So
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I've heard a plenty of guys say they're gonna take
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: this down to three and a half, and they have.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: It's down to Ford a lot of books now the Seattle.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: So yeah, that's the one I think we're gonna be
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: talking about for our five. Now. The next one is
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: not that surprising, just because you know, I think me
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: and Chad took this position last week. We got burned,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: and I knew a lot of pros would like it.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I'm just shocked that they're willing to make in one
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: of their bigger bets this week. And that's the Commanders.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: The fact that so many professionals I've talked to love
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: the commanders and I told them, they're saying, you guys
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: gotta put in your contest this three and a half.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: I was like, I don't, I don't know if you
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: chack and even talk me into it, Like that's how
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: gross I felt after last week. But we gotta throw
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: that out right, it's a new week. You can't really
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: base off last week. But I just I'm trying to
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: get these guys to tell me why they want me
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to do and what they're seeing. And it's just like,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: all right, everything you said could be true. But at
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: the same time, it's Carson Wentz going up against such
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: an incredible d line. But we've seen the movement of
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: this number opened out even have six got beat down
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: to three and half, even though the Cowboys one and
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: the Washington didn't. Now it's down to three, So big
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on Washington despite the public and
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: everyone else is coming in heavy on this Cowboys team. Um,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: it's definitely the more interesting line movements of the week.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: And then the biggest one we all we all knew
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: when we talked about last week, the books. We're gonna
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: take a stand and so were the pros with the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: books Tampa bag chiefs. I mean that number has been wild,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: like from two and a half down to one, backup
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: to one and a half. It's again, we told you
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: not even touch it because we thought I don't get
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: avoided anyway, it could be wrong. Apparently Tampa got spared
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Again. We'll talk more about this hurricane
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: because I've seen me and Chad like our thoughts go
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: out to everyone in Florida. It's it's been devastating. But
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: to me, I don't know how they played in Tampa.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: I just figured they'd have to move it because that's
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: how bad that storm looked. But Tampa might have been spared.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: They might put up play there as we sit here
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Thursday morning, we just don't know. So it's interesting. I
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: get where the guys are coming from. There's all these
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: trends that act back in tom and we'll talk about that,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: but to me, it just felt like a pro position.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: You're taking a really good defense in Tampa to shut
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: down mahomes in Tampa, right in that weather, in that heat,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: and you're getting Brady after a loss as a dog. Again,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: another trend that favorites on it was just all lined
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: up there. Now, what we don't know what's gonna happen
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: if they moved to Minnesota and you get my homes indoors.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: We talked about it last week against the Colts. That
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: was his first loss ever at a Dome game. You
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: never lost before until last week. So to me, it
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: changes everything. The fact they had moved this game from
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Tampa and Minnesota. But if it stays in Tampa that
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: that feels like it's gonna be one of these that
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: we're at the lock in chat just because that's the
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: most pros bet. The most pros bet right now is
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Seahawks Commanders in Tampa. That's so interesting, Uh, the Commanders. Look,
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: we talked about it. What did we say last week
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: or not last week? Earlier in the week, Commanders was
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: the first game on our got to think about it
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: list or the Phase five be at three and a half,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: because you've got to forget what you saw. You just
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: got to look at the number. You gotta know you've
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: got the Cowboys overvalued in a come from behind prime
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: time when you've got the Commanders getting blown out by
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. It's the same reasons why we love the
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Commanders against the Eagles, right, the Eagles were coming off
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: a huge prime time win. This is where it gets
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: interesting where you have to factor in betting against the public,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: managing public perception, understanding what the metrics on the field
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: are telling you, and knowing the personnel. And to me,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I think wise guys might be leaning too heavily into
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: the public perception components of this and not accounting for
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: how good the Cowboys defense can be. And whats your quarterback,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is, I just don't love the number. I
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: feel like you're with me on that. It just feels
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: like we're not getting the best number in this. I
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: don't like there's so many reasons why you have to
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: bet the Commanders, but I don't feel good about it
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: for all the reasons that are threading the needle, which
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: is you want to get the best of the number
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: and we're not getting it. Exactly. Remindered everybody, we record
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: this on Thursday before the Thursday night game. Oftentimes it's
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: released later in the day. Again, we apologize. Nothing we
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: can do about it. We're beholding to you know, corporate stooges. Right.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: But the Bengals, I love the Bengals. On Sunday night.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: It opened it one and a half. Within five minutes,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: it was a two and a half. I betted a
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Simon liked the Bengals at two
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: and a half. In our contest, the Bengals locked four
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: and a half four and a half. So this is
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: gonna take some balls here, Chad, you got them? No,
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: I don't so. Since two thousand fifteen teams coming off
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: an our right win as a dog, and our dogs
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: for Thursday night's game are one, twelve straight up, one
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: and eleven a t s when they're on the road.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: These these dogs that just one and now they're playing
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: again on the on the road as an underdog o
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: n H straight up and eight against the spread. Just
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Miami. This game just stinks the hell.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: It just feels like a blowout for this Bengals team.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I don't want to spend too much time talking about
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: it because so many people are gonna be here in
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: this after the Bengals minus four and a half is
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: so big. It's the same philosophy on the Commanders. At
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: three and a half, we're not even getting close to
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: the best of the number, so why risk it I'm
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: into numbers two, but sometimes I could give two ships
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: about them. I make this game four and a half,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: it's four and a half. I'll take that number. But
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I'm with you, chat it's a bad number. It's one
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: of these things. I'm gonna be texting you, bitching at
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: you before the game kicks off. Well that's fine. I
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: can accept that. But I live by my principles. I
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: do the right thing every time. There is no right thing.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: This is all made up, brother, That is such a
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: true statement for our entire lives. Yes, it is so.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: To remind people, we liked the Ravens plus three and
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: a half. We like the Steelers minus three. I still
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: love the Texas the Jags plus six and a half.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: I still love the Texans plus five plus five and
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: a half. There's a couple of games on our list
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: that I think, to me are better than the Bengals
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: at four and a half. Starting with your favorite team,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: my favorite team, the Wise Guy's favorite team, the Atlanta
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Falcons plus two. You love that, starting to fall in
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: love with it that, I'm starting to go the other way,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: just because again it's it's our guy. Evan Abrams. I
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: read these trends you post out and it's just like
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: ship makes you want to go back and look at
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: my numbers. But I've already been Atlanta. I'm I'm in
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: on Atlanta. I just love this team, but in this position,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: it's usually not good when there's an underdog in week
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: four that's three and oh a t s at home
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: historically has not been kind to them. So I'm with you.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I love it. They're just prevailing numbers that say you're
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: kind of walking into what the books kind of know
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: what they're doing here. Um, but it feels like it's
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: kind of a split game, right the public money and
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: the bets. It's kind of been flip flopping every day,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Like some days the Browns are getting the money, the
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: next day it's been Atlanta. So I don't know. It's
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: an interesting number. It got down to one and then
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: it went back up to two, so it's been moving
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: all over again. I just wish this was three chat,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: so if this was three, it would be an auto
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: play for me. The fact that it's not it gives
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: me pause. I believe everything that the wise guys have
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: been saying about the Falcons, and that their offense is
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: remarkably creative and hard to stop. The Browns are going
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: to be missing Jadeveon, Clowney, Miles Garrett. We don't know
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: yet what's happening, but even if he plays, he's gonna
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: be pretty banged up. I assume you gets suspended though
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: you saw that the info came out there saying now
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: they like basically these people that's their jobs to check
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: the tires and whatever from the accident. This speculation. Who
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: knows how true all of this is. It just happened
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: yesterday today, his accident. I believe they think he's going
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: over hundred moss proar. So if that is true, we
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: assume he'll be suspended. Right, That's that's reckless driving. So
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: as of now, though he got released from the hospital,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: he hasn't practiced yet this week. But if nothing comes
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: about it, yeah, that that would that'd be huge, right
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: if they're down to their biggest d lineman against a
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: team that loves to round the ball. So I'm with
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: chat on that one. That could be something that flips me.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Comes Sunday. I am literally I've already bet it. I
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: am literally betting on the Falcons being the better, having
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: the best unit on the field when it comes to
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: a really creative game plan. Offensively, the only thing that
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: gets in their way is Arthur Smith is a head coach. Honestly,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: I think I think he I think he takes a
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: lot of flak. Matt Ryan sucks. He had him all
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: last year. This year he's got married and he's actually
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: turned out even know how the top five offense um
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: could you could say a lot of it's more about
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Crail Paris and Drake London and Pitts. But he's putting
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: them in the position. So I'm with you. I think
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Arthur he makes some bonehead and moves every now and then,
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: But offensively his scheme, love it, Love everything about his scheme.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Again a team I was really high on coming to
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: this year just because of that, all those offensive weapons.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: It's panned out three oh a t s three oh
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: to the over. That's that can't be ignored. I would
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: one be more comfortable waiting to see what the status
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: of Garrett and Clowney is well Garrett and taking the
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Falcons than trying to rush on the Bengals on a
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: bad number. It's a bad number to who to you
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: because you got a hundred bucks down at two and
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: a half. It's just like, dude, this is the number. Brother.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: But I'm with you. I'm not happy about four and
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: a half. I wish it was three and a half,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: but they made it that number just because two at
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: the time could have been out of this game. So
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: I get why that number one up to four and
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: a half. Um. The other game that we talked about,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: and by the way, we still owe people a big
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: balls better the week, UM, I have an opinion on
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: what it should be. Uh, and we talked about it
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: on UM. We talked about it on on Tuesday. There's
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: two options to me, Okay, number one Texans plus five
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, number two the Broncos on the
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: road at the Raiders plus two and a half. You
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: can feel strongly about other ones. I'm just throwing them
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: out there. Yeah, I thought you were gonna easily go
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: with the Bucks. Like that feels like that's the balls
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: he just better the week. I mean, yeah, Brady's calm
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: off games where you put up thirteen points on offense
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: because he had to pick six against Jamis in that game,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: and then you put up twelve points last week, Like
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: it feels like the public has left him for dead
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: and then you can look at you can look at
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: the action app all the tickets is pouring in on
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. To me that it seems like the biggest
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: balls better the week, but it sucks because I feel
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: like again I feel like an ask telling people to
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: take the number and it's gonna be a dead bet,
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: like they could change the venue and your your bets
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: just automatically avoided. Out of the two you gave me.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: I feel like Denver is the biggest, the ballsiest one
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: right just this week. I don't know if you've been
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: on Twitter, there's this video of Russell Wilson in a
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: subway sandwich. Have you seen this? It's called the danger
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Witch and it's dangerously good. Jesus, that is dangerous. Holy shit, man,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Either this guy is a genius or he is truly
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: a serial killer. He is so fucking weird, but I
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: can't stop watching it. It's like it's like a trance
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: he puts on you with how weird he is. It's
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: just this is the by the lowest week can by
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: is Russell Wilson right now? He's never been lower in
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: his career. Then right now everyone's bashing him. Everyone keeps
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: putting up the stats of him and Gino Smith next
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: to each other. Genia Smith's making like three million dollars
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: this year, and it has better stats in Russell Wilson,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: who's got paid. It's never ending. They wrote me off.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: I ain't right back though, that's the problem a right back.
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Let's go this Raiders team. That's why. That's why I'm
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: like with you on it. It's such a great spot
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to fade them. They're just they're they're a complete trainer.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I think that their only team and since nineteen fifty
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: nine to be the only team oh and three. So
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: like no one else is own three. There only team
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: in football right now own three is Raiders. Every other
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: team he's either gotta win or a tie to this point,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: that team that was the only team that was and
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: three the end of these season three and eight. So
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: just again a train wreck of a year. People are
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: saying there's still time for this Raiders team. I'm kind
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: of with your Chad, like I'll know a lot of
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: pros are betting them and other people are just because
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: this is their everything game and Denver's to them overrated.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: I like Denver in the spot, like Chad does. I
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: think the biggest script to me is this is one
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: of the few games I'll just tease. I don't know
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: how much I'm gonna have on it straight right, because
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: it feels like a good tease number two and a half.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, they'll do the money line and they'll do
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: it in a teaser for the two and a half.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: In this matchup of these two teams, I don't feel
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: great about it, just because they're both high. They're both
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: teams that can put up points, even though I know
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: we haven't seen that with Denver. They have the talent there.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: So it's interesting that you love that that game of
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: all the games on the board, um, just because it's
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: kind of gross, like this matchup of a team that
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: everyone hates in Denver and a team and Raid the
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: Raiders that no one really trust. Here's the stat that
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams sent. Through three weeks of NFL football, only
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: one team has lost all three of their games, the Raiders.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: The last team to be the only oh and three
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: squad through three games was Detroit Lions, who finished the
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: season three eight and one. Yeah, I'm blue, So this
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: just feels like a lost year for this Vegas team.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know now, I'm kind of talking myself out
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: of it. Yeah, there's other better dog. Our next partner
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: has a product I've tried and loved because I wanted
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: to improve my gut health and get more energy. Listen, guys,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: everybody knows how into my health I am. We talked
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: about it in the podcast all the time. I've had
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: this first thing in the morning after I wake up,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: and I love the mild tropical taste. Athletic Greens is
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: a great option for easy, optimal nutrition. Just one scoop
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: of a g one and you're absorbing seventy five high
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: quality vitamins, minerals, whole food source, superfoods, probiotics, and adaptogen's
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: to help you start your day right. The blend of
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: ingredients supports your gut health and your nervous system, your
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: immune system, your energy recovery focus plus aging, which I'm
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: always concerned about. Sustainable routines are key. A g one
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: is my daily micro habit that makes it easy to
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: absorb key nutrients, lead a healthy lifestyle, and feel my
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: best no matter what the day holds. One scoop, one minute,
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: once a day, every day. Right now, it's time to
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: reclaim your health and arm your immune system with convenient
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: daily nutrition. It's just one scoop and a cup of
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: water every day. That's it. No need for a million
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: different pills and supplements to look out for your health.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: To make it easy, Athletic Greens is going to give
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: you a free one year supply of immunet supporting Vitamin
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: D and five free travel packs with your first purchase.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: All you have to do is visit Athletic Greens dot
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: com slash favorites again, that is Athletic Greens dot com
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: slash favorites to take ownership over your health and pick
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: up the ultimate daily nutritional insurance. I think the Texans
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: are a better big balls better the week. It's a
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: bigger pro Joe game. The line opened at seven, it's
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: moved to five and a half. I like the edge
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: for the Texans. Rashawn Slater being out for the Chargers.
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Joey posted being out for the Chargers. Justin Herbert it's
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: at home. You're getting a pretty decent sized home dog.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Damian Pierce should dominate them on the ground. There the
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: running back for Houston. This is a really great matchup
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: for him as well. What do we think of making
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: the Texans are big balls better the week? I love it.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Let's lock it up because big ball better the week.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I know. I already knew when I saw this, and
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: it was gonna be this. The Jaguars in now Seattle,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: these are gonna be ones we're gonna be fighting to
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: put in come Sunday because they're just all dogs that
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: we like with the big numbers against teams that we
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: see a lot of weaknesses. The Yeah, I think it's interesting.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: So right now, there's nothing that is dissuading me from
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: putting Raven Steelers, Jacks, Texans in. I think we're having
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: conversations around the Bengals. I think we're coming having conversations
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: around the Falcons and um the other teams that we
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: had sort of talked about. And you tell me if
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: anything has changed for you. Ah, we had talked about
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: the Panthers. I think we take them out. I'm not
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: feeling good about it anymore. We have talked about the Broncos,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: we talked about the Rams plus two and a half,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: and now we're talking about the Seahawks. And let's talk
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: a little bit more about the Seahawks. That game is
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: so interesting to me because Gino is playing well and
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: they're going against a team that is not used to
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: be in favor. It's a decent sized number for the Lions,
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: who have a dreadful defense. So I need a little
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: more until um, why we think? What what you were number?
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: What is your number? On the Seahawks Lions game? I
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: actually had it at four and a half, and then
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: talking to other guys, I made a little adjustment just
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: because I think they are right the swift injury to me,
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: Alan moved up by half a point. I gotta respect
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: that guy more. He's been honestly dynamic for that offense
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: playing this year. So I bumped it down to three
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: and a half and I just literally sat there and
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: started up for a while. I was just like, now,
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: I think I overadjusted in Seattle. But then I saw
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: again two really well known big time pro groups hit
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: this number, and they hit it again. So they liked
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: it at four and a half. They liked it at four. Interesting.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: That's something you gotta really pay attention to, where it's like,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: all right, what are you looking at? So I reached
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: out to a guy asked him what's going on? What
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: do they see? I think they're looking at a defense
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: and Detroit that who are there to protect a big
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: number like that, then they won't be able to let
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: alone against guy like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett. You can
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: say what you want, but Penny has been moving the
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: ball for the Seattle team and he gets fifteen touches
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: a game. It's a big deal for them. And I
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: know I'd like to make fun of Geno Smith because
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: he is what he is. He's been all right this year,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Like if you look at his numbers on paper, again,
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of it's safe, checkdown plays. But at the
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: same time, he's not really killing this team, Like he's
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: not the reason they lost to Atlanta. They couldn't get
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: a stop on defense. That was more about the Seattle defense.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: So I I think the smart move here is playing
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: the numbers because, like you talked about, that's what we're
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: doing here, Like we're thinking about how these games can
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: play out and what's the best number available. The fact
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: that a Lions team that doesn't really know to win
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: or close out games was catching so many points that
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: was crazy. So like, yeah, I'm kicking myself. I didn't
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: grab that six and a half because I I just
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: looked at Seattle team is just such a bad team
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: for this position, like two bad teams playing each other.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: You take all those points like there there really is
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: no favorable side on either defensive side. We know both
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: of these offenses are. Seattle is just healthier, like they
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: don't have the injuries that Detroit already has piling up
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: on their side of the ball. So to me, that's um,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: that's one of the numbers I didn't love coming into
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: the week, and now it's grown over during the week
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: and I could see us, you know, fitting this one
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: in because again, as we'll talk, we can talk about
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: Jaguars one. It's not that I'm getting off of it.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I'm just getting a little worried, um about a lot
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: of a lot of traveling for this Jaguars team. And
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: Evan put into the article, it's not it's not favorable
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: for these teams to go on the road. They're won
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: by against the Chargers and now they're coming up to
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: the East Coast to play the Eagles. Again. We'll talk
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: about this with Survivor, but it's a stat I love
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: a team in that position. A team that just went
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: twenty eight points is underdog on the road. Now are
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: is a dog again by six or more points their
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: own eleven straight up in this position. So it's not
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: the best spot this Jaguar has been put in by
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: the schedule makers. It's it's really tough to kind of
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: win against such a good team of the Chargers. They
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: go on a road and play against such a dominant
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: team in this Eagles have looked this year. Did I
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: talk you off that and put the Jackson? No? No, not.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: I am so in on the Jacks here. Can you
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: blinded by your love? Though I'm not blinded by my love.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: I've never seen more clearly it takes bookmakers. And I've
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: heard this for years from Bob Scucci bookmaker to the
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: world original co host of the podcast with me way
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: back in the day going to ESPN. Yeah, someone asked
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: me on Twitter the other day, can I explain Scooch Roulette,
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: which we will do. That is a head to head
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: game that we do. Scooch Roulette was one of the
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: original games that we played on Behind the Bets when
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: I launched Behind the Bets at ESPN and then when
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: we launched Action, we did the buffet with Chad and
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: Scooch and Scoot Rule was a game we go head
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: to head. We play it now between me and Simon.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: To honor Bob Scucci, bookmakers take four weeks to readjust
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: their lines, and so they were not high on this
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Jack seemed the way you and I were. We both
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: bet the Jacks to win the a f C South
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: anywhere from twelve to one to seven to one. Still
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: love it. Still can't believe the Jags are plus two
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: and the Culture plus one to win the a f
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: C South win total seven and a half. Yeah, Like,
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: it's just they haven't fully adjusted this for this team yet,
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: and I think I think after this week they will.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: I think the Jacks are gonna cover. I don't think
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: the win, but I think they're gonna cover. And so
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: I just like the value here. Um. Nothing Evan Abrahams,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: none of the stats, none of the trends, nothing can
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: take me off that. I use them as compliments, not
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: as decision making tools. They support my arguments, they don't
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: drive my arguments. I'm looking at the number. I'm looking
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: at the team I've seen on the field. I'm looking
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: at where the money is to prose Joe's game. I
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: love the Jags. Um, it's the Seahawks that are that
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: that are interesting to me. And where I worry that
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: my bias is about the Lions are keeping me away
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: from loving the Seahawks. What's interesting is that DeAndre Swift,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: he's their playmaker. Like aman ross A Brown is great,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: but it's DeAndre Swift who blows the game open for
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: these for these guys without him, I think that's a
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: big deal. Jamal Williams isn't the same kind of explosive player,
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: not at all, and especially when you see what he's
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: done for their offense this season, it's just every time
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: the needed to play, he got them one where yeah,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: Williams looked good down the red zone, but talking about
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: a game changer, he's just not that player. Uh, all right,
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: So let's make a call here, Falcons Seahawks bangs. I'll
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: put the Bengals in in my own personal and we
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: don't have to do the Bengals because I know you
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: hate it. I can tell you I hate it. That's fine,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: but I'll definitely make you eat some crow after they
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: win by ten. Oh yeah, there's no doubt about it,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: unless especially when they win by ten and it's Sunday
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: afternoon and we're fucking sweating. The Seahawks are the Falcons, Like,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: am I really the guy who's saying, yeah, let's not
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: put it on Joe Burrow, let's put it on Gino
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Smith or Marcus Mariota instead. Those are the best Sundays.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. I guess I lean. I guess
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I leaned Seahawks. Let's say that's why I feel every week.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Like my brother last week he was like, man, why
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: do you do this to yourself? You're like, you're cheering
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: for Carson Wentzon Jamis Winston right now. And I was like,
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: I'm not chimming for Jamis anymore. That was last week,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: and he was like, yeah, but it feels like every
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: week er I'll many ship quarterbacks. It was like, that's
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: where the value is. Well, it's not all shitty this week.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: It's only mostly shitty this week. We're only mostly worried
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: about Mitch Drubiski and Davis Mills and now probably Geno
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Smith and Trevor Lawrence on the road against number one
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: team in football and Lamar Jackson against the the team
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: that is still power rate a number one I really
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: and again the more you read it, just I love
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: that we're playing that game. That that to me, that
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: if we didn't already have it as what was our
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: foxhole bet, that would definitely be our biggest boss, Like
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: the amount of heat I got from not other pros,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: just on the general public advantage of the show of
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: being like, you guys are crazy for downing Josh Allen
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: after a loss. We're not really down and we're just
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: playing the numbers. I just think these two teams that
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: should be closer to a pick than what it was.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Three and a half. M Chad both agreed that's that
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: was a crazy number to start up the open. With
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: the fact that I went down to three despite all
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: the money coming in and the bets coming on the
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: bills just shows that the pros and the bookmakers agreed
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: with us. So what are we doing here? Seahawks? Which
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: do you like better? Seahawks or Falcons? Like, what do
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: I feel safer with? I'm gonna go Seehawks because the
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: group I know that took that like there they're legit,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Like they're really legit. So that's one of those if
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: they're playing that position and they're playing it big, they
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: clearly know something here in this matchup. So I'm gonna
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: trust that number. Are they know it's gonna be four
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: and a half in the contest. Simmon, are they to
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: legit to legit to quit? Do you know that? Yeah?
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Does that mean? Are they? Are they from the eighties?
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're from the eighties, but mc
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: hammer too late to legit to quit? Uh huh? What
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: were the pants they used to wear? You know what.
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I'm working with children here, damn it. I'm working with
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: goddamn children. No one cares about your shitty, itty eighties
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: trivia Chad. A lot of people care. There's probably a
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: whole eighties trivial theme, trivial pursuit game. Start the NFL
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: week off right with a no sweat same Game parlay
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: every Thursday from FanDuel, America's number one sports book. It
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter if you're new to FanDuel or already have
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: an account. Every Thursday night, you'll get free bets back
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: if you are NFL Same game parlay doesn't hit. Same
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: game parlays are the perfect way to combine your bets
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: for a chance at a bigger pay day. For example,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: to night, I like the Bengals the over and Joe
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Burrow passing yards over. Build your own or choose from
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: one of the popular s GPS pre built for you
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: and FanDuel's top rated sports book app. However you want
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: to play. You can bet the NFL every Thursday night
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: within No Sweat same Game parlay and with FanDuel's new
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Live same game parlays. You can continue building s GPS
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: even after the game has started. Just sign up with
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Promo cod Favorites if you don't already have an account
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: that's Promo Code Favorites to get free bets back if
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: you're GP doesn't hit, make every moment more with fandual
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: and official sports betting partner of the NFL. Must be
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: twenty one or older and in select states three and
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: more legs and minimum one dollar bet required. Refund issued
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: is non withdrawbo free beets that expires seven days after receipt.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Max free bet five dollars. Restrictions apply see terms at
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: sports book dot FanDuel dot com. Gambling problem call one
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash RG
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia one
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: eight hundred, next step or text next step to five
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: three three four two. In Arizona one eight eight eight
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit c
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: CpG dot org slash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: nine with it in Indiana, k S Gambling help dot
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven zero
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: stop in Louisiana one eight seven seven eight Hope NY
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: or text Hope n Y in New York, Tennessee. Redline
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: is one eight hundred eight eight nine nine hundred five
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred gambler
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Here's our final five. Then
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: Ravens plus three and a half, it's down to three.
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: We still like it. Steelers minus three. I like the
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: Steelers up to four against the Jets. I just think
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: the Jets are trash um Jags plus six and a half.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: That's still where the number is. Texans plus five and
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: a half or five Seahawks plus four and a half.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Big balls better the week Texans plus five and a half. Simon,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: we gotta do a scoot roulette when all hope is lost.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: All this left is relief. Let's plays roulette. I keep
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: owning you in this so I will go first. I
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: made the Jags. My exact decision, Matt Mitchell, Can I
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: get a ruling? Am I out to make a team?
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: That was my exact decision? My scouture Let pick. Absolutely,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: I will make the Jags plus six and a half
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: my Scoot row Lett pick. Simon Europe Let the record
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: show Chad whooping me and scouture lettuce and being three
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: note on two on one. Just just some people know
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: that's one of us is too legit to quit. Scout
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Lett like, I need a winner, so Chad is not
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: so brutal. I feel like this game is gonna be
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: fixed in some way, so I'm gonna take it. I'll
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: take Tampa. Give me the Bucks at any number down
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: down to a pick, I take it. I keep forgetting
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: about Tampa. That's a mistake on my part. Thanks. Yeah, no,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: I agree with you. The Bucks. We're really going to
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: have to make a hard decision on the Bucks on Sunday.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: And if they're not in Tampa, me and Chat we're
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: not putting them in the contest. But if they're in Tampa,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: we gotta gotta do. I think we gotta have a
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: hard conversation Sunday. Reminder, Simon and I will lock in
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: our picks Sunday. After the show convinced me that we
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: are on you can watch it in the Action Network app.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: That is the best experience because what you can do
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: while you're watching it in the app, you can do
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: picture and picture. Then you can roam around the app.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: And as we are talking about bets, you can make
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: the bets. You can go directly link into FanDuel. Like
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: you just pick it in the Action Network app. At
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: leaked to directly to FanDuel. It's seamless, it's convenient. It's
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: the best way to experience a Sunday morning. Do it.
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: After that, Simon and I will lock in our picks.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: I'll put him in the Action Network app. Faves five.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Follow us there, Simon, we gotta do a Survivor. Uh.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: Let me just tell everybody right now. I'm in a
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: pool where you got to choose two teams at least
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: twice in weeks two through ten. I chose the Packers.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: I chose the Steelers. I think the Packers, which we
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: talked about on Tuesday, are still the survivor pick. Yeah,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: and I would say number two. After reading that staff
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: by Evan, the Jaguars seems like have real no chance,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, historically have no chance of winning this game
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: against the Eagles. Use them if you if you really
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: want to play it safe. I feel like Eagles are
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: the safest one. Like again, you probably used the Bengals.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: You can't use them tonight. The Pittsburgh one has its
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: risk for taking Trabiskie. It's always a little scary having
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: him in your survivor. And then the other play would
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: be which I couldn't do, would be the Vikings. Um. Like,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: So there's just a bunch of games are super risk
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: and the safest ones to be our Green Bay and
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. Um. You want to do the money line
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: around Robin, I do, my friend who not a lot
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: of big dogs. We already talked about it. This year
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: has been very unique. They're just haven't been the seven
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: point eight point nine point dogs. Um, And it sucks
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: the one big dog this week. There's there's no amount
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: of money I can be paid to take Brian Horrier
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: to win out right. Guy hasn't won a game. I
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: think he's oh and eight or oh and nine, um,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: and his last starts. He's just he's been collecting a
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: nice little paycheck from the Patriots for the last six years,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: just being a kind of a second coach. This man
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: should not be playing in the game. So like, I
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: just cannot be putting him in. He could keep it close,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: like they could cover that number. I know, Stucky put
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: out some crazy thing like they'll check in the spot.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: He's covered this number every time. But winning out right,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: that just feels like way too much to ask of
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: this guy coming off the bench with such a bad
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: team and the Patriots, so um, my first underdog. Me
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: and Chat already talked about we love the Texans. Um,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: that's a good, big number. Get that one in there, Tennessee.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: I know they're the public dog this week, and a
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: lot of pros love the Colts. I'll stay away from
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: that number, I guess because he's down to three now,
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: you're not getting great value, But I'll take the money line.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Tennessee has had the Colts number historically in this position.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: This one isn't as gross. Me and Cha, I'd love
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: it from the get go. Ravens got thrown in there
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: a Seahawks again, two terrible teams are getting a big
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: number against the lines. We knew we were gonna throw
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: that one in. Um and the last one I was
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: gonna do Tampa. I just the value might not be
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: there now, just because the lines moved around so much.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Let's go Broncos. Broncos plan I gets to know and
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: three team short dog. I'll take that money line there.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: So I really like this one. This week, we just
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: keep hitting two and three. It's killing me. We keep
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: going two and three every week. Come on, give us one.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: We need three and two week Broncos Country, Denver, Brocos.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: Let's set a sandwich. Yeah, and it's dangerously good. All right. Reminder,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: following the Action Network app the Favorites podcast, you will
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: get the Foxhole pick which is the Ravens, the Simon
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: says which is the Steelers, the Exact Decision which is
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: the Jags, scootra Let picks which are Jags and Tampa,
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: and our big balls which is the Texas. Follow the
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Phase five Sunday we will lock it. I think we've
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: done all we can do here, Simon. When the people
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: some money, it's been a good start to the year.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it going, brother, let's keep it going. We
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: are eleven and four on the year in the contest.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Good start. Listen, you start five and oh you go
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: three and two the rest of the week, You're going
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: to find yourself in the month. The rest of the year,
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: you're gonna find yourself in the money for Simon Hunter.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: For producer Matt Mitchell. I am Shad Millman. This has
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network. Download
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: us from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: Please don't forget to rate, review, and subscribe to the podcast.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: You can say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: but give us five stars. For God's sake, people, we
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: read the comments. We love the feedback. We incorporated. Until
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: next time, I love you.