Latest / Financial Survival Network / David Wright on Rising Unemployment & Market Volatility: Navigating Economic Challenges #5946

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David Wright on Rising Unemployment & Market Volatility: Navigating Economic Challenges #5946 · Financial Survival Network

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  More Americans living in poverty level means that more people on unemployment. More jobless
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  claims means more debt on credit cards. So in that case, it's going
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  to be good for the FEDS down the road to be able to ease up
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  on interest rates because so much of Middle America is just living on fumes.
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  You know the job report, I Feds wanted to get unemployment. Uh that
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  down. You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable
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  information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You
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  need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot
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  com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than
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  ever, and welcome. You are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network.
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  I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Is Friday, November tenth, and yes,
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  we do work on Friday. Sometimes some of the world does, but
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  it seems like less and less less than the lesson the world working on Monday
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  through Friday as well. And speaking of that, we got some jobless claim
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  numbers. David Wright is with us. Now. You find David at Right
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  Financialgroup dot com is book is Bonfires of the Saturdays. No, not Vanities,
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  not the Tom Wolf book. It's Bonfires of the Saturdays dot com.
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  David, it's great to have you on again. So, hey, what
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  about the jobless report? We should be happy? Well, I guess so
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  we're good and bad reasons. The Jobless Report came out at about two hundred
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  and seventeen thousand actual. They had forecasts two hundred and fifteen thousand. It's
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  significant because more Americans living in poverty level means that more people on unemployment.
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  More jobless blames means more debt on credit cards. So in that case,
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  it's going to be good for the Feds down the road to be able to
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  ease up on interest rates because so much of Middle America is just living on
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  fumes. You know. The job report, Feds wanted to get unemployment,
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  uh that down. It's been in the three percent range, three point you
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  know, two to three point three, three point eight, heading now closer
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  to four percent, so that closer to five percent. Then I think the
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  FEDS may seriously start considering, you know, pivoting, but that's going to
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  be a while yet. I think there needs to be more negative reports before
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  that happens, okay, So it's not going as quick as they want it
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  to go. In other words, they're unhappy. Too many people are working
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  right now. There's just too much demand for skilled and positions that are not
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  being killed right now. There is just more people that are there's there's too
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  many jobs available still not people to fill them. They're still fairly robust economy
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  out there. We've got a GDP that's still in the three to four percent
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  range because basically inventories and supplies a bettery refilled. But the bottom line here
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  is we know long term that inflation it was long as it. It's hanging
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  around there at the three point seven to four percent range. The Feds aren't
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  going to budge. I don't really think Carrie, they're going to do much
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  in December besides just kind of pausing and and check the data. I know,
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  I know jer Own Powell, if he were a poker player, it'd
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  be hard to read, you know what he's doing. But his talk is
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  stoped. He's certainly coming through like a hawk. But is that really going
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  to happen? They got to really, you know, do anything with the
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  short rate. I don't know, you know, my guests would be now
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  that they're probably not. So he just gave a little talk with the IMF
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  and he's talking real, real, you know, hawkish as they say,
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  dutsh and hawkish. Yeah, like maybe certain leaders of terrorist organizations we've seen
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  on the one hand they're saying all nice things in English, but on the
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  other hand, in their own language, they're saying death to everybody. Right,
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  yeah, I mean it's really a mixed up world that we're living in
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  right now, and God only knows where it's gonna had. We see,
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  you know, unemployment in our country still pretty low, but yet the deficits
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  in our country keep rising. Our GDP I checked out the other day,
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  Actually our GDP at about twenty six trillion, but our debt at thirty three
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  trillion. We've got a debt to GDP rate show now that's oh about one
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  hundred and twenty, which is as high as it's been since World War Two.
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  So till Congress figures things out, you know, I heard a good
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  one. If pro is the opposite of Khan, then progress must be the
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  opposite of Congress. And I yeah, they just can't get a damn thing
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  done. They can't figure anything out. So until that all gets rehauled.
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  I think that the modern monetary theory just kicked the can down the road further
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  manned up being the way well. I always say, the basis of any
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  monetary system is confidence. Without confidence, you can't have a fiat system.
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  And you know what the root of confidence is, con right, Yeah,
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  yeah, yeah, yeah, certainly so the stock market, you're basically seeing
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  that it's foreseeing that it's going to be range bound. It's going to be
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  range bound. I think that we're looking at the S and P five hundred
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  probably hanging in the forty five hundred to thirty eight hundred ballpark for the rest
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  of the year, probably ending the year around forty two forty three hundred points.
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  But next year I do see that things are going to be more pressure
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  for the Feds to do some pivoting because a lot of these corporations are going
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  to have to renegotiate their leases, et cetera. That's going to hurt earnings.
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  I think the banks can't really handle much more with the higher interest rates
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  for longer scenario. Already bank presses are there, you know we how much
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  more? Well? I mean the question I always want to ask somebody I
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  can't get an answer, is how much debt is too much debt? You
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  know, we we we're the largest economy in the world, and we also
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  have the most debt of anybody in the world. So when does that correlation
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  could get out of whack. When does too much debt, too much debt,
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  and that colapses the whole system. I mean, what are your thoughts
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  on that. Well, if you're the Federal Reserve, I don't think they've
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  ever seen too much debt. They've been manufacturing more and more debt since nineteen
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  thirteen. That's kind of been their mandate, right, Yeah, I think
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  crisis and appointment. If you're a regional bank, you're in a world of
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  pain right now, right You're in a world to hurt. Well, you
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  got all these loans held on the book, real estate lost during loans three
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  percent, and then you've got to pay out these short term depositors six fives
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  and six percent. The margins don't really work too well, so they're under
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  a lot of stress. I mean, I walked into my local bank here
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  as that shall remain nameless, and they're just like gutting the inside facilities.
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  These banks are are becoming like bomb shoulders. You walk in and it's like
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  you feel like you're at a pawn shop. They're they're stripping them down.
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  I don't know whether they're just trying to save money or what, but it's
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  pretty sad around here in the Midwest. O. Hey, you know,
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  they're all under pressure and there's really nothing that can save them short of going
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  back to quantitative easing and really consolidation. You know, Jamie Diamond said,
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  we don't want any more of them. They took over I don't remember who
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  they took over, Silkonda Valley Bank. Did they take over, yeah,
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  Public, He said, we don't want anymore. But you know that when
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  these banks start falling, basically, it's going to be like do you remember
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  during the Great Financial Crisis when Merrill Lynch fell, and then they called up
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  the Bank of America Ken Lewis and mister Lewis, congratulations, you are now
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  the proud owner of Merrill Lynch. They said, I don't want Merrill Lynch,
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  so I don't want them. Then they said you're not hearing us.
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  Congratulations, you're now the proud owner. And then like three weeks later,
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  he was gone. He was no longer. As it turned out, it
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  worked out. It was a great deal for them, but they were all
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  in solvent. Then do you think bikes are insolvent? I think they are
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  already heading there. I mean when you look bit the Feds, the Feds
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  can afford to not raise rates right now because they're tightening. They're still doingtat
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  quantitative tightening, So they're they're just letting the bonds roll off the system that
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  they purchased during COVID, so that the monetary supply is shrinking while at the
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  same time, uh people savings accounts are drying, drying up, and uh
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  so the monetary supply is shrinking. More debt, more foreclosures, and I
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  think that's just all gonna I hate to be a doom and gloom guy,
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  but it's hard to see a very glamorous, uh elegant way out of this
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  problem moving forward. This soft landing that they all talk about, there's going
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  to be a lot of people that are left ing, uh, that that
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  are devastated by this. M All right, Well, they enough enough good
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  news, So tell us about Bonfires of the Sanities. Well, first I
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  need to correct you. It's bonfire Bonfire Angular. Bonfire of the Sanities a
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  book, a labor of love of about four years of mind. It's written
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  in a very casual manner. Abraham Maslow, the famous psychologist, wrote that
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  there were three things that basic needs for humans, for food and shelter,
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  you know, for safety and self actualization. And I played the lead role
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  in a musical in high school, tell you Fiddler on the Route. Oh
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  we're a rich man if I would an itch man, And if you look
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  at it, people were a rich During that monologue, he's fantasizing Carrie about
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  having you know, if you were the wealthiest man in town, he'd fill
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  his yard with ducks and chicks and geese and you know, mate servants throwing
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  you around. He'd have one staircase going up, one coming down, and
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  one extra one just for show. But then the as the song goes on
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  and he really realizes what it's important. Money's important to him for is to
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  go to the synagogue and pray to be a more learned man, to be
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  a person that helps society. Right, Soli Americans, it's not about having
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  tons of money in the bank. It's about having enough income from the money
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  to be able to do those things that you want to do. Travel to
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  Thailand, go place you know, live your life and be able to have
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  food on the table, be able to have safety for your future, and
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  that you're not going to run out of money. So this book, Bonfire
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  the Sanities takes us through, chapter by chapter where my star was, where
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  the markets got to where they are today, and some common sense whips about
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  how we can help you fix your problems and get you reshifted into a more
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  Maslow self fulfilling prophecy for your retirement, comfort, safety of income. Oh,
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  it makes complete sense. I'm I like the little play on words,
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  and you should have dedicated the book to Zero Mostelle, right, I love
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  Leerra Mostelle. Yeah, he's my favorite. You know he was the best.
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  For sure. We're dating ourselves a bit, but I think we are.
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  We are. I think I saw it with him. I remember correctly.
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  Zero Mostelle did the Broadway version. You probably saw, yes, in
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  New York? Do it? Ah? The movie He is a little movie
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  the look he was told. I don't know I ever saw the play,
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  but I definitely saw the movie. Yeah. Topol played the movie version of
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  it, and you know he absolutely nailed the role. Yeah, great,
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  amazing, And you know what the musical Fiddler on the roof so tinly for
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  what we're going through now in the Middle East, and uh, you know
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  the persecutions true, so true, and you know, it's just pretty amazing
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  what's happening? Hey, that absolutely so place to find you. Right Financialgroup
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  dot com. Right Right Financial with a w Right Financial Group dot com.
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  And if you log in there, you'll see a lot of things that we
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  do for our clients, ways that we help you get focused, some good
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  complimentary giveaway stuff, some things that you can learn about how we select funds,
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  how we select strategies for prem poster diaries, and how to get a
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  copy of this book. Okay on Fire Sanities dot com. All right,
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  well, we love it and the links are in the show notes of this
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  interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. Hey got a question comment for David
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  myself? Shoot us an email k L at Carrie Luods dot com. Hey,
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  David, best of luck and we'll talk to you again soon if I
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  would, itch Man, I haven't lost it yet, all right, I
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  see a remake. I see a remake in your future a remark. All
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  right, great to talk to you. Thanks, Heerny, thanks for listening
• 15:16
  to carry Letz's Financial Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For the
• 15:24
  latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,