Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 6/16/26: Trump Slams Bibi Over Lebanon Attacks, Ben Shapiro Meltdown Over Iran Deal, Bari Weiss Vs Trita Parsi

Transcript

6/16/26: Trump Slams Bibi Over Lebanon Attacks, Ben Shapiro Meltdown Over Iran Deal, Bari Weiss Vs Trita Parsi · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. I have an
0:35
Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today, What for Soul.
0:37
Speaker 2: Indeed, we do a lot of updates for you about
0:39
Speaker 2: what we know with regard to the Iron Deal. Trump
0:42
Speaker 2: making some interesting comments today about how Sirius should actually
0:45
Speaker 2: be in charge of taking care of Hesbola, not Israel.
0:49
Speaker 2: NT Yahoo resisting pulling out of Lebanon, so a lot
0:53
Speaker 2: to get to their Traja Parsy is going to join
0:55
Speaker 2: us to break down his understanding of the deal and
0:57
Speaker 2: how it came together, and also the deportation threats against
1:01
Speaker 2: him which have been quite significant. We also are going
1:04
Speaker 2: to take a look at some new AI stories anthropics
1:07
Speaker 2: Dario Amide with some very terrifying and eyebrow raising comments.
1:11
Speaker 2: Also a major walkout from another graduation ceremony, this one
1:14
Speaker 2: the CEO of Google was speaking, so that is quite
1:18
Speaker 2: a significant development there.
1:19
Speaker 4: We're taking a look also at the oil markets.
1:22
Speaker 2: Let's say that the deal signing happens this Friday, that
1:26
Speaker 2: the in sixty days even are able to come to
1:28
Speaker 2: some sort of agreement. Obviously a lot of these things have,
1:30
Speaker 2: you know, a lot of question marks around them. But
1:33
Speaker 2: even given the best case scenario, how long will it
1:36
Speaker 2: take for the oil markets to get back to normal?
1:39
Speaker 2: We've got some numbers and some data there to show you.
1:41
Speaker 2: Were also taking a look at the polls this morning,
1:43
Speaker 2: and a very interesting clip of a Maga grandma who
1:46
Speaker 2: says that the Trump economy is giving her literal panic attacks.
1:51
Speaker 2: So a lot to get to this morning, and for
1:53
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Speaker 1: Thank you.
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Speaker 3: share an episode with a friend. But let's go ahead
2:19
Speaker 3: and start with Iran. So right now, what we are
2:21
Speaker 3: seeing extraordinary new comments from President Trump, who is abroad
2:26
Speaker 3: attending the G seven. There's a lot of different bilateral meetings.
2:29
Speaker 3: One was with Zelenski. This one was with the Emir
2:32
Speaker 3: of Qatar, where he appears to say and to shunt
2:35
Speaker 3: Israel under the bus in Lebanon, though of course bb Netanya,
2:39
Speaker 3: who is resisting.
2:39
Speaker 1: We'll show you that here in just a little bit.
2:41
Speaker 3: But here are his comments where he says that if
2:43
Speaker 3: Israel can't handle Hasbola, maybe al Qaeda in Syria can.
2:47
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen Syria.
2:49
Speaker 5: He's pulled that country together amazingly quickly. He's very capable,
2:54
Speaker 5: and he's been very good for me. He's protected everything
2:57
Speaker 5: that I've asked for. He's done. And if Israel can't
3:02
Speaker 5: do the job without killing everyone else. He'll do the job.
3:07
Speaker 5: Siria will do the job.
3:08
Speaker 1: He'll do the job. Syria will do the job.
3:11
Speaker 3: So we're gonna ask al Qaeda to take on Hezbolah. Interesting,
3:15
Speaker 3: Let's go to the next one. This is from Trey Yanks.
3:17
Speaker 3: He compiled all of Trump's comments throughout the day here
3:21
Speaker 3: on Israel and Hezbola. He says, Israel is fighting Hezbola
3:24
Speaker 3: too long. Too many people are being killed. You don't
3:27
Speaker 3: have to knock down an apartment house every time you're
3:30
Speaker 3: looking for somebody. There are a lot of people in
3:32
Speaker 3: those apartment houses, if they're not all Habola. I suggested
3:35
Speaker 3: to Israel to let Siria take care of Hezbolah. On
3:38
Speaker 3: Israel striking Hezbela in Beirut, I did not like that.
3:41
Speaker 3: I let them know that. Says the attack was quote
3:44
Speaker 3: too much. If Israel can't do the job, He'll do
3:46
Speaker 3: the job, Syria will do the job. BBI has to
3:49
Speaker 3: be more responsible with respect to Lebanon. I am not
3:53
Speaker 3: happy with the way Israel has handled themselves in Lebanon.
3:56
Speaker 1: Hisbola.
3:56
Speaker 3: Israel would have blown up a long time ago, had
3:59
Speaker 3: I not got involved, So that is interesting to say
4:04
Speaker 3: the least. And remember Hesbulla, Hebulla and Lebanon remain the
4:08
Speaker 3: keystone to this entire thing. The Iranians say it's in
4:12
Speaker 3: the memorandum of understanding. The Trump administration briefed a bunch
4:16
Speaker 3: of reporters yesterday. They say it's not in the memorandum
4:20
Speaker 3: of understanding, and yet there is still full scale freak
4:24
Speaker 3: out because we have no idea what's in that memorandum
4:26
Speaker 3: of understanding. It hasn't been released. According to the Vice President,
4:29
Speaker 3: it is quote a page and a half. The JCPOA
4:32
Speaker 3: for reference, was I think one hundred and fifty nine
4:34
Speaker 3: pages after it was released. But what we do know
4:38
Speaker 3: is that many of the key details which we brought
4:40
Speaker 3: you all yesterday, which were reported by the Iranian side
4:43
Speaker 3: about what's in it for them, including a three hundred
4:46
Speaker 3: billion dollar reconstruction fund, do now appear to be confirmed
4:50
Speaker 3: by the Vice President, who was on television yesterday.
4:52
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
4:54
Speaker 6: The Iranians are saying that they're going to have access
4:56
Speaker 6: to a three hundred billion dollar reconstruction fucked true or false?
5:02
Speaker 7: Well, that's the sort of thing they could have access
5:05
Speaker 7: to funded by the Golf Coast Coalition, so long as
5:08
Speaker 7: they honor their endo, the obligation. I think that one
5:10
Speaker 7: of the things you're going to see ED, and people
5:12
Speaker 7: have to be skeptical of this, is that the hardliners
5:15
Speaker 7: in the Iranian system will overemphasize the benefits that Iran
5:19
Speaker 7: gets while underemphasizing all the things that they have to
5:23
Speaker 7: concede and all the things they have to provide in
5:26
Speaker 7: order to get these benefits. So we absolutely are open
5:29
Speaker 7: to the Gulf Coast countries investing in the reconstruction of Iran,
5:33
Speaker 7: but only if Iran ends their nuclear program, ends their
5:38
Speaker 7: enriched stockpile of material. And it's really open to an
5:41
Speaker 7: inspections and enforcement regime that gives the American people confidence
5:45
Speaker 7: they're never going to have a nuclear weapon. So I
5:48
Speaker 7: think the dance you're going to see ED, which is
5:50
Speaker 7: going to be interesting, is the Iranian media, especially the
5:53
Speaker 7: hardline media. They're going to talk a lot about what
5:55
Speaker 7: they get without talking about what they give.
5:58
Speaker 1: It's important for all of us to correct that record.
6:00
Speaker 3: Correcting the record by confirming that the report is true.
6:03
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, listen, you spending however you need. I
6:06
Speaker 3: don't care all right, three hundred billion around what we
6:10
Speaker 3: destroyed in the country. The bottom line is no sanctions
6:13
Speaker 3: and you allow the money to flow, whether it's from
6:15
Speaker 3: America or a mysterious bank in Switts. Who was laying
6:20
Speaker 3: that out yesterday on the show about these Swiss banks
6:23
Speaker 3: that Qatar controls but doesn't really control and will transfer it.
6:27
Speaker 3: I don't give a shit which way you do it,
6:28
Speaker 3: all right, But the clear, honest truth is that when
6:31
Speaker 3: you lose a war, yeah, sometimes you got to pay
6:33
Speaker 3: the piper.
6:34
Speaker 1: And that's the truth.
6:35
Speaker 3: And the Israeli lobby in Washington is losing it over this.
6:39
Speaker 1: They should guess what Iran's entire.
6:42
Speaker 3: GDP in twenty twenty four was four fifty six billion.
6:45
Speaker 1: So this is.
6:47
Speaker 3: Three hundred billion in reconstruction funds in addition to sanctions relief,
6:52
Speaker 3: in addition to making to requiring like intra golf investment
6:57
Speaker 3: and basically de facto normalization of all of these countries'
7:01
Speaker 3: relations with Iran, and on top of that for nuclear enrichment.
7:05
Speaker 3: That remains the biggest sticking point. And don't get me wrong,
7:07
Speaker 3: there's still going to be a ton of fights to
7:09
Speaker 3: be had in the interim. Sixty days but to have
7:12
Speaker 3: that on the table for Iran, I understand now why
7:14
Speaker 3: they took the deal. Yeah, I mean they demanded genuine
7:18
Speaker 3: like they demanded full on reparations. We all thought that
7:21
Speaker 3: was a joke.
7:22
Speaker 1: It's not.
7:23
Speaker 3: It's now been confirmed here by the Vice President. But
7:26
Speaker 3: this is the reality. This is the reality we have
7:28
Speaker 3: to grapple with. I'm fine with it.
7:30
Speaker 1: We should never have been.
7:31
Speaker 3: Here in the first place, Israel War lobby, You've got
7:34
Speaker 3: what you deserve.
7:35
Speaker 1: I don't know what else to say.
7:36
Speaker 2: And not only those one time funds and the sanctions
7:38
Speaker 2: relief obviously, but also an income in perpetuity.
7:42
Speaker 4: We're not a toll, but a fee to transit.
7:45
Speaker 2: The straight upfore moves is what looks like is going
7:47
Speaker 2: to be contemplated here. Going back to the piece about
7:51
Speaker 2: Lebanon and Israel and how central this is and these
7:54
Speaker 2: disputed characterizations of what is in the memo of understanding,
7:57
Speaker 2: et cetera. On Launch Media says that they got their
8:00
Speaker 2: hands on the first page of the memo of understanding,
8:04
Speaker 2: and Ryan tweeted the sound paragraph one of the MoU
8:07
Speaker 2: According to Homwaj, Media says Iran in the US quote
8:10
Speaker 2: and their allies in the current war. Obviously that would
8:13
Speaker 2: include Israel declare the immediate and permanent termination of military
8:16
Speaker 2: operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from
8:21
Speaker 2: now on not to initiate any war or any military
8:25
Speaker 2: operation against each other, to refrain from the threat or
8:27
Speaker 2: use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial
8:31
Speaker 2: integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. So perhaps that language is
8:37
Speaker 2: where there could be you know, I look at that,
8:39
Speaker 2: and I say, okay, that means you have to withdraw
8:40
Speaker 2: from Lebanon. But perhaps the Israelis look at that and say, well,
8:43
Speaker 2: you know, we can ensure the territorial integrity but still
8:46
Speaker 2: keep our troops occupying on the ground in Lebanon. In
8:51
Speaker 2: any case, Paragraph one is further described as elaborating, how quote,
8:54
Speaker 2: the final deal, the Compradsive Agreement in vision to be
8:57
Speaker 2: signed within sixty days of the initiation of talks in
8:59
Speaker 2: June nineteenth, will confirm the permanent termination of the war
9:02
Speaker 2: on all fronts, including in Lebanon. In other provisions of
9:06
Speaker 2: this paragraph, and you know, previously when the initial cease
9:10
Speaker 2: fire which led to a decline in hostilities between you know,
9:14
Speaker 2: all of the various parties. Remember there was that whole
9:17
Speaker 2: flack about okay, was Lebanon included or not the Iranians
9:21
Speaker 2: and then the pakistanis confirmed. No, Lebanon was in the
9:24
Speaker 2: deal and always contemplated. Iran has made it incredibly clear
9:27
Speaker 2: and has backed that up with attacks directly on Israel,
9:30
Speaker 2: which was the first because they continued to attack within Lebanon.
9:35
Speaker 2: So this is truly truly a key point, you know,
9:37
Speaker 2: the other piece before we get to some of Netnyahu's
9:40
Speaker 2: comments here, because he is politically in a very difficult place. Domestically,
9:45
Speaker 2: he was very unpopular before October seventh. He has forestalled
9:49
Speaker 2: any sort of reckoning with how October seventh unfolded and
9:53
Speaker 2: what you know what problems he may have created in
9:55
Speaker 2: the government that enabled the attacks on that day. In
9:59
Speaker 2: any he's got his major corruption trial that keeps getting
10:02
Speaker 2: pushed off as long as he continues to fight new wars.
10:05
Speaker 2: He is facing significant opponents and may actually lose his
10:09
Speaker 2: lot as Prime minister. Those supposedly more moderate opponents are
10:14
Speaker 2: all hitting him from the right on not being hardline
10:17
Speaker 2: enough with regard to Iran, and given where the public
10:20
Speaker 2: is in Israel, those attacks have some purchase within Israeli society,
10:25
Speaker 2: but in any case, putting him aside for a moment.
10:27
Speaker 2: The other dynamic here that's very interesting, Sager, is that
10:30
Speaker 2: jade Vance has clearly been put out as the face
10:34
Speaker 2: of this deal, and I think he wants to be
10:36
Speaker 2: the face of this deal. He wants to sell it
10:38
Speaker 2: to the public, he wants to be associated with helping
10:41
Speaker 2: to bring this thing to a close. But it has
10:44
Speaker 2: also made it so that he has become really the
10:47
Speaker 2: target of attacks from neo cons who are too scared
10:51
Speaker 2: too directly attack Trump, of course, and so you know,
10:54
Speaker 2: it's all, oh, it's Jadie Vance's.
10:55
Speaker 4: Fault, give me a break.
10:57
Speaker 2: Like we know, in the negotiations and bought, jade Vance
11:01
Speaker 2: was stripped of any authority. He kept having it called
11:03
Speaker 2: Trump and reportedly met Yahoo as well, getting up from
11:06
Speaker 2: the table to show, oh what about this?
11:08
Speaker 4: What about that? Had very little authority.
11:10
Speaker 2: I mean, this comes directly from Trump, because of course
11:13
Speaker 2: it does. You know, he is the one who has
11:15
Speaker 2: to at the end of the day say yes, we're
11:17
Speaker 2: going forward with this deal. But they see him as
11:20
Speaker 2: too powerful of figure. They don't want to go directly
11:22
Speaker 2: against him, so instead they're attacking jd Vance, which creates
11:25
Speaker 2: an interesting political I was.
11:27
Speaker 3: Just ranting to you this morning. These people are the
11:29
Speaker 3: most pathetic cowards. They spent three months telling us, Oh,
11:33
Speaker 3: nobody controls Trump. He's uncontrollable, he's independent, and he's so wise,
11:38
Speaker 3: and he's the one who took us to the war
11:40
Speaker 3: with Iron and you are a disloyal you know, to
11:44
Speaker 3: attack him and to say he's controlled now whenever it's
11:47
Speaker 3: time to be doing a deal after the disastrous war,
11:49
Speaker 3: you motherfuckers dragged us into. Now it's like, oh my god,
11:52
Speaker 3: he's controlled by his vice president and no.
11:55
Speaker 1: Way he's the oning on making Kelly's show. What a disaster.
11:58
Speaker 3: Yeah he I mean, they are such pathetic and hours.
12:02
Speaker 2: And that now they want the deal to have to
12:04
Speaker 2: go through Congress.
12:05
Speaker 4: Yeah, whereas when going to war, Trump could do that
12:08
Speaker 4: on his own. We want cheese. You gotta have everybody
12:11
Speaker 4: sign off.
12:11
Speaker 3: Outrage yesterday, John fun has not been briefed on the
12:15
Speaker 3: memorandum underset. Oh nobody briefed him on the decision to
12:18
Speaker 3: go to war. All right, all right, so you don't know,
12:20
Speaker 3: if we can go to war without you, then we
12:22
Speaker 3: can get into peace without you.
12:23
Speaker 1: Bitch. I mean, I'm sorry I have followed it for you.
12:26
Speaker 3: So worked up about this, but it's like living in
12:28
Speaker 3: an alternative reality, you know, where all of these these
12:31
Speaker 3: people for three months have just been licking Trump's feet.
12:34
Speaker 3: And guess what, whenever you know, Trump attacked Iron, it
12:37
Speaker 3: was very important. I mean, you can go back and
12:39
Speaker 3: look at the record that I blamed Trump. And when
12:42
Speaker 3: I went on Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly's show, you know,
12:45
Speaker 3: when we were talking about the whole Israel and I
12:47
Speaker 3: was like, no, guys, like, look, yes, Israel, this is Trump.
12:50
Speaker 3: So this time around, they can't do that because they're afraid, they're.
12:54
Speaker 1: Cowards, and they want to retain some level of influence.
12:57
Speaker 3: Now they got to attack Jdvan And by the way,
12:59
Speaker 3: the reason I'm spend much time on this this is
13:01
Speaker 3: Israel lobby playbook.
13:03
Speaker 1: One oh one.
13:03
Speaker 3: They are the nastiest, most pathetical, They are the nastiest,
13:07
Speaker 3: They have no scruples. They will do anything to defeat
13:12
Speaker 3: this deal. Anything true. And you know, three hundred billion,
13:16
Speaker 3: this is existential because, by the way, five years from now,
13:19
Speaker 3: who's going to have a larger GDP, Iran or Israel?
13:22
Speaker 3: Guess and if we have full scale normalization of relations,
13:25
Speaker 3: who's going to be maybe more important to the United States.
13:27
Speaker 3: Maybe good relations with the country that controls the Straits
13:30
Speaker 3: of Hormuz and is exporting all this oil, or this
13:33
Speaker 3: will start up nation which is can't stop bombing all
13:36
Speaker 3: of its neighbors and causing all kinds of problems. Is
13:39
Speaker 3: basically a leach on the United States. Which one of
13:41
Speaker 3: those two countries is going to be more important. They
13:43
Speaker 3: are going to do everything, and I mean every like, yeah,
13:47
Speaker 3: do not put anything off the table.
13:52
Speaker 2: Israel the way that they operate now, and their entire
13:56
Speaker 2: conception is that we cannot allow any nation in our
14:01
Speaker 2: region to rival US, period and that's not you know,
14:04
Speaker 2: and that nation doesn't even have to have direct animosity
14:08
Speaker 2: or be you know, saying that Israel's the Great Satan
14:12
Speaker 2: or the Little Satan or whatever. They just want to
14:15
Speaker 2: make sure that there cannot be even the theoretical possibility
14:19
Speaker 2: of any threat. But they are too small of a
14:22
Speaker 2: nation to be able to pull that off on their own,
14:24
Speaker 2: so they require dependence on the US to back up
14:29
Speaker 2: that posture. And so if you have an Iran that
14:33
Speaker 2: is economically you know, strong, that has clearly demonstrated military
14:38
Speaker 2: capability and also geostrategic dominance in the region. That is
14:44
Speaker 2: an unacceptable state of affairs for Israel as they have
14:48
Speaker 2: currently postured themselves and the expectations that the entire population has.
14:52
Speaker 2: I mean, this is not some fringe view. This is
14:55
Speaker 2: like pretty much unanimously the view in Israel is that
14:58
Speaker 2: they have to make sure there is no even theoretical
15:01
Speaker 2: possibility of any nation that can threaten them. So if
15:05
Speaker 2: this deal goes through, they are going to have to
15:08
Speaker 2: almost like rebuild their entire self conception. They're going to
15:12
Speaker 2: have to rebuild their entire approach to the region. I
15:16
Speaker 2: think that will create a much more stable region if
15:18
Speaker 2: you don't have this rogue, superpower backed, nuclear armed state
15:22
Speaker 2: that's constantly going around and bombing their neighbors with absolute
15:28
Speaker 2: no accountability whatsoever for the crimes that they commit. But
15:32
Speaker 2: in that way, it is existential for Israel. It's existential
15:36
Speaker 2: in the way that Israel has been conducting themselves for
15:39
Speaker 2: years and years at this point. So that's why there's
15:42
Speaker 2: a freak out. Let's go and put a two up
15:44
Speaker 2: on the screen here. This is Natanyahu's speaking to the
15:47
Speaker 2: nation again. Remember he is under a very strong political
15:51
Speaker 2: pressure from the supposed moderates, although they are not moderate
15:56
Speaker 2: in any real sense of the word, and have been
15:58
Speaker 2: pushing him from the right to be more hawkish, more aggressive.
16:02
Speaker 2: So what he says on Lebanon is we created a
16:04
Speaker 2: buffer zone, a security zone, and we will remain there
16:07
Speaker 2: as long as necessary around one us to withdraw from there.
16:11
Speaker 4: That did not happen.
16:12
Speaker 2: Do you know why it did not happen, among other reasons,
16:14
Speaker 2: because I stood very, very firmly. I was resolute on
16:16
Speaker 2: this matter, and I think our American friends respect that
16:19
Speaker 2: determination and that stead fastness. So he's saying, we aren't
16:23
Speaker 2: withdrawing from Lebanon. We've created what he describes as buffer zone,
16:27
Speaker 2: otherwise known as an illegal occupation, something the Israelis know
16:31
Speaker 2: quite a lot about. But there he's signaling that he
16:34
Speaker 2: is not willing to withdraw from Lebanon. And so you've got,
16:38
Speaker 2: you know, some some good language coming from Trump saying, hey,
16:42
Speaker 2: Israel needs to be done here. Maybe Siria should get
16:44
Speaker 2: involved instead. I don't know what's going on with that one,
16:48
Speaker 2: but but will Trump actually take the actions that are
16:53
Speaker 2: required to reign Israel in that we've seen some tough words,
16:58
Speaker 2: you know, allegedly from Biden in the past and on
17:00
Speaker 2: the record now from Trump in public currently. But is
17:04
Speaker 2: he going to be willing to actually cut them off,
17:07
Speaker 2: to actually say, well, no, we're not doing this, because
17:10
Speaker 2: if he did that, it would be very simple to
17:13
Speaker 2: compel Israel to, you know, to do what we want
17:16
Speaker 2: them to do. We have incredible leverage over them. But
17:18
Speaker 2: that's the part that we've never seen, either from Trump
17:21
Speaker 2: or certainly from Biden, is the willingness to take actions
17:25
Speaker 2: and not just rhetorically express them frustration.
17:28
Speaker 3: This is where look, if you're a betting man, which
17:31
Speaker 3: side would you do?
17:32
Speaker 1: You know, I don't. I don't advocate bets.
17:33
Speaker 3: If it were on Calshi, you know what, where which
17:35
Speaker 3: way would you put your money? I can lay out this.
17:39
Speaker 3: Trump seems very frustrated, desperately wants a deal. You've got
17:43
Speaker 3: JD out there. I haven't heard from Pete Hegseth or
17:47
Speaker 3: I won't give him one of the nicknames Pete Heggseth
17:49
Speaker 3: and or Marco Rubio in a while. These are good things.
17:53
Speaker 3: So people have been sidelined. Things can change literally at
17:57
Speaker 3: any moment. What needs to happen in the intrum, and
17:59
Speaker 3: I hate doing this because I don't usually play the
18:02
Speaker 3: inside game. But right now what needs to happen is
18:04
Speaker 3: that these Mark Levin type characters and others need to
18:08
Speaker 3: be branded as disloyal and anti Trump. That's really what
18:12
Speaker 3: the internal game and all that needs to play out us.
18:15
Speaker 3: In addition, though, what you need to see is that
18:18
Speaker 3: Bebe has to continue to fight for his domestic political ends,
18:22
Speaker 3: which is increasingly going to put him directly at odds
18:25
Speaker 3: with Trump because Trump reportedly is now very unpopular inside
18:28
Speaker 3: of Israel, because the Israelis are furious that anybody would
18:31
Speaker 3: tell them no, you know, for the first time in
18:33
Speaker 3: their lives. Now again, if I were to bet, I
18:35
Speaker 3: would definitely not bet against them. I think the next
18:37
Speaker 3: sixty five days genuinely will be insane, and on Lebanon especially,
18:41
Speaker 3: like for example, everythings could not be more clear. Let's
18:44
Speaker 3: put a six here on the screen. Here you have
18:46
Speaker 3: the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson who says explicitly the Iranian
18:51
Speaker 3: claimed that the Israeli strike on Beirut backfired, and that
18:54
Speaker 3: Lebanon is explicitly referenced three times in the memorandum of understanding,
18:59
Speaker 3: including visions territorial sovereignty, territorial integrity, and ending the war.
19:04
Speaker 3: You just showed Beebie said I'm not going to do that,
19:07
Speaker 3: and in fact put a seven up here on the screen.
19:10
Speaker 3: Natanyahu has explicitly said we will not just remain in Lebanon.
19:15
Speaker 3: We will remain in Gaza and Syria after the US
19:19
Speaker 3: Iran deal is signed. I also love you know, everyone
19:22
Speaker 3: just implicitly sits and says, oh yeah, Israel currently occupy
19:27
Speaker 3: as we remember I cover it at the time, they
19:29
Speaker 3: just annexed a part of Syria and nobody said a
19:33
Speaker 3: word here in Washington. They have to facto annexed Lebanon.
19:36
Speaker 3: Nobody says a word, but we do know. And this
19:39
Speaker 3: is where look, maybe this is me living in a fantasyland.
19:43
Speaker 3: If we just pull aid from them, if we just
19:47
Speaker 3: do that, that all collapses in a day. They cannot
19:51
Speaker 3: defend themselves. Look at them, We have to shoot down
19:53
Speaker 3: all their missiles. They're you know, I love reading the
19:56
Speaker 3: Israeli press front page horadim riot overdraft.
20:01
Speaker 1: You know, their own people don't even want to.
20:03
Speaker 3: Fight, and it's like, look at them, you know, they're
20:06
Speaker 3: actually a weak society, especially whenever it comes to their
20:09
Speaker 3: ability to fight even in Lebanon. I mean, come on,
20:12
Speaker 3: the idea. You know, this whole occupation and everything, the
20:15
Speaker 3: way that it has gone, it's been a disaster actually
20:18
Speaker 3: for the IDF, And the IDF General chief of Staff
20:20
Speaker 3: is the person saying that, not even me who is
20:23
Speaker 3: arguing about, Oh, it's putting all the strain on the military.
20:26
Speaker 1: And then Gaza.
20:27
Speaker 3: We all know how they comported themselves there if it
20:29
Speaker 3: weren't for bombs. I mean, come on, Their ground forces
20:31
Speaker 3: did terribly actually whenever it came to fighting. So they
20:34
Speaker 3: cannot sustain any of this without the full force backing
20:37
Speaker 3: of the United States of America. But this is where
20:40
Speaker 3: I have to give the caution. Let's put AA up
20:43
Speaker 3: here on the screen. I took very very close notice
20:45
Speaker 3: of this, and I want to highlight it for everybody.
20:48
Speaker 3: The CIA director here, John Radcliffe quote told Trump and
20:52
Speaker 3: other senior officials intelligence gathered by the US raised serious
20:56
Speaker 3: doubts about Iran's willingness to make nuclear CONCESSI as the
21:00
Speaker 3: US is seeking a final deal, you are going to
21:03
Speaker 3: see perhaps the greatest deep state leak operation of all time,
21:08
Speaker 3: maybe only similarly comparable to what happened when Obama tried
21:13
Speaker 3: to withdraw from Afghanistan back in two thousand and nine.
21:16
Speaker 3: According by the way, even to Barackravid, the CIA director,
21:20
Speaker 3: Ratcliffe is here.
21:22
Speaker 1: Quote casting doubt.
21:24
Speaker 3: As an intelligence analyst, you have Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth,
21:26
Speaker 3: who opposed to the deal. I would generally not bet
21:29
Speaker 3: against the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense here,
21:31
Speaker 3: who both you know, control vast resources allies. They can
21:34
Speaker 3: create things and do things as they want. They have
21:36
Speaker 3: control of these intelligence agencies, of diplomatic memos, of cables.
21:40
Speaker 3: Remember Rubio is also not just the Secretary of State,
21:43
Speaker 3: He's also the National Security Advisor, so he runs the
21:46
Speaker 3: policy shop out of the White House.
21:47
Speaker 1: They can very easily manipulate these things.
21:50
Speaker 3: They also have a vast leak apparatus from the New
21:53
Speaker 3: York Times and barackra Vid and all of these others.
21:56
Speaker 3: Stenographers will write anything right, and so you can give
21:59
Speaker 3: them whatever you need. All of this intelligence and other
22:03
Speaker 3: things will all be laundered through the neo conservative press
22:07
Speaker 3: and be used explicitly as a way to attack, attack, attack,
22:11
Speaker 3: and to shape the decision matrix so that every night
22:14
Speaker 3: on Fox News it will be a drum beat about
22:17
Speaker 3: how Trump is doing the wrong thing.
22:19
Speaker 1: Can he sustain that?
22:20
Speaker 3: Obviously no, we watched what happened, and so that's my
22:23
Speaker 3: last caution is the three hundred, Like the contours of
22:26
Speaker 3: the deal as of right now actually look like something
22:28
Speaker 3: that could work.
22:29
Speaker 1: Button Let's be real.
22:31
Speaker 3: This is a full on existential threat to Israel as
22:34
Speaker 3: we know it and to their entire lobby here in Washington.
22:37
Speaker 3: And I would never bet against these people the Ratcliffe thing.
22:41
Speaker 3: When I saw that, I was like, here we go,
22:43
Speaker 3: Like this is day one. Now imagine day thirty five,
22:47
Speaker 3: like the New York Times stories about all the warnings
22:50
Speaker 3: from HEGSAT and by the way, they're all starting to
22:53
Speaker 3: start being real honest. Now for one hundred days we
22:57
Speaker 3: heard Iran's military has been decimated. We're actually going to
23:00
Speaker 3: get the truth because they're going to use it as
23:02
Speaker 3: a pretext for why we shouldn't do the Well, we're
23:05
Speaker 3: going to get the real figures on the ballistic missiles.
23:07
Speaker 3: We're going to get I just saw my first segment
23:09
Speaker 3: on Fox News yesterday. Actually Iron's military hasn't been decimated.
23:14
Speaker 3: First time they've said it in a one hundred days right,
23:16
Speaker 3: so you're you're actually going to get the truth about
23:18
Speaker 3: Iran's military and its ballistic missile program and maybe even
23:22
Speaker 3: it's nuclear enrichment and all. Listen, I don't care about
23:25
Speaker 3: any of that, but they're going to use it as
23:26
Speaker 3: a pretext. So I'm just set in the space that
23:29
Speaker 3: the next you know, third sixty days, it's going to
23:32
Speaker 3: be wild.
23:33
Speaker 2: Just like how we went from after the Twelve Day War, like, oh,
23:35
Speaker 2: there are nuclear programs totally decimated too.
23:38
Speaker 4: Well, actually, no it's.
23:40
Speaker 2: Not, and now we need to go to war to
23:41
Speaker 2: make sure that they can not produce a neular weapon.
23:43
Speaker 3: Just wait, it's going to be It's going to be something,
23:46
Speaker 3: but it'll be fun to cover it all with you. Okay,
23:48
Speaker 3: we have treat to party staying by.
23:50
Speaker 1: Let's get to it.
23:53
Speaker 3: Very excited now to be joined by our great friend
23:55
Speaker 3: Treata Parsi, who has found himself under attack by the
24:00
Speaker 3: despicable Barry Weiss. Let's start with B zero up here
24:04
Speaker 3: on the screen. I do want to draw this to
24:06
Speaker 3: everyone's attention. Doctor Parsi has found himself attacked by the
24:11
Speaker 3: Free Press, who allegedly reported that he was being considered
24:16
Speaker 3: for deportation. So Dropsite, Breaking Points and the American Conservative
24:21
Speaker 3: have all started this petition to stand with treat to
24:24
Speaker 3: Parsi against deportation. There will be a link down in
24:26
Speaker 3: the description, and we encourage you to add your name
24:29
Speaker 3: to this petition to show the United States government how
24:32
Speaker 3: many American citizens stand here with our friend. But we
24:34
Speaker 3: are going to start first of all for his great
24:38
Speaker 3: analysis of the situation and of this war. And let's
24:40
Speaker 3: put a zero B up here on the screen. Sir,
24:43
Speaker 3: you give us some comments here about Trump's latest musings
24:47
Speaker 3: on Hezbolah. So here he says Israel is fighting Habola
24:50
Speaker 3: too long, Too many people are being killed. You don't
24:54
Speaker 3: have to knock down an apartment house every time you're
24:56
Speaker 3: looking for somebody. There are a lot of people in
24:57
Speaker 3: those apartment houses. They're not all has Bola. I suggested
25:00
Speaker 3: to Israel to let Syria take care of Hezbolah and
25:04
Speaker 3: quote I did not like that Trump striking Israel striking beirute.
25:08
Speaker 1: And I let them know that.
25:09
Speaker 3: What do you make of these kind of musings here
25:11
Speaker 3: on Israel and Hezbolah, which remains one of the key
25:14
Speaker 3: problems for Trump in actually attaining the ceasefire.
25:17
Speaker 8: Well, Trump is pushing back against Israelis trying to sabotage
25:21
Speaker 8: his deal, and he's doing so not simply by saying, hey,
25:24
Speaker 8: don't salvotage my deal. He's going after specific methods that
25:28
Speaker 8: these Raelis are using to build up opinion against Israel.
25:32
Speaker 8: He's criticizing them for the massive amount of collateral damage
25:35
Speaker 8: that they're totally fine with inflicting, whereas the US itself
25:39
Speaker 8: follows different rules. And it was under the Biden administration
25:42
Speaker 8: that the United States just lifted all restrictions on Israel.
25:45
Speaker 8: They could do whatever they wanted, and of course Trump
25:47
Speaker 8: continued that for a while, but he's hinting here now
25:50
Speaker 8: that he's going to restrict that by saying that you
25:52
Speaker 8: don't have to kill and take down entire apartment building.
25:55
Speaker 8: The Israelis attacked Lebanon just hours before the electronic signing,
26:00
Speaker 8: knowing very well that that was an Iranian red line
26:03
Speaker 8: and also an implicit American red line. It was a
26:06
Speaker 8: clear attempt by them to sabbotage this. And I think
26:09
Speaker 8: that you know, their hands is shown now and I
26:12
Speaker 8: think the glasses are off. The Trump administration is clearly
26:15
Speaker 8: seeing what the Israelis are intending to do and the
26:18
Speaker 8: only way to prevent them from doing so. It's not
26:21
Speaker 8: just these comments. I think they're helpful. It's not just
26:24
Speaker 8: these angry phone calls, although I'm pleased to hear about them.
26:27
Speaker 8: They have to make it very clear the United States
26:30
Speaker 8: is not going to go into a war that Israel
26:33
Speaker 8: starts against America's wishes, because the incentive for these Raelis
26:37
Speaker 8: is that they believe that by starting these wars they
26:40
Speaker 8: can drag the US into it. If you can make
26:42
Speaker 8: it absolutely clear that will not work. It will also
26:46
Speaker 8: disincentivize these Raelis from going down that path because there's
26:49
Speaker 8: no value for them doing so if they can't get
26:51
Speaker 8: the United States to get dragged in. And this has
26:54
Speaker 8: to be done not just orally, but also make it
26:56
Speaker 8: clear militarily, we're not going to be there for it.
26:58
Speaker 4: Yeah.
27:00
Speaker 2: Times of Israel headline right now says amid us Iran deal,
27:03
Speaker 2: IDF says Hezbolah continues attacking troops in South Lebanon. We've
27:07
Speaker 2: already had at least one IDF drone strike within Lebanon.
27:11
Speaker 2: How much do you think that Iran will tolerate of this?
27:15
Speaker 8: Well, it depends between when we are talking about it.
27:18
Speaker 8: Will they tolerate it right now? Probably? Will they tolerate
27:22
Speaker 8: it after Friday? Probably not? And they will not tolerate
27:26
Speaker 8: even though at this point it is Beirut that is
27:29
Speaker 8: the redline. I suspect that from the signing or at
27:33
Speaker 8: least shortly thereafter, it will be all of Lebanon. And
27:35
Speaker 8: then they're going to be very adamant about this because
27:37
Speaker 8: if they allow for some strikes in southern Lebanon, well,
27:42
Speaker 8: then eventually the Israelis are going to push forward and
27:45
Speaker 8: push forward and push forward. So I think there's going
27:47
Speaker 8: to be a very firm line there, at least that's
27:49
Speaker 8: what they're going to have to do if they want
27:50
Speaker 8: to keep this together. But at the same time, it
27:54
Speaker 8: very much also relies on them holding back Hezbola and
27:59
Speaker 8: Hisbola will not be held back if the Israelis are
28:02
Speaker 8: still inside of Lebanon. The Hezbola will not tolerate that
28:06
Speaker 8: the Israelis are occupying parts of Lebanon because otherwise this
28:11
Speaker 8: agreement disease fire can end up cementing an Israeli occupation
28:16
Speaker 8: of Lebanon. So I think the US is also going
28:19
Speaker 8: to have to push to Israelis very hard to get
28:21
Speaker 8: out of Lebanon in order to make sure that that
28:24
Speaker 8: front does not jeopardize the much more important front from
28:27
Speaker 8: the Trump administration's perspective, which is to end this war with.
28:31
Speaker 3: You on Yeah, sir, I do want you know. One
28:33
Speaker 3: of the warnings I gave before we were interviewing you
28:37
Speaker 3: is just about the sheer force of the Israel lobby
28:40
Speaker 3: and what they are about to bring down on the
28:42
Speaker 3: head of Donald Trump. You lived through the original Israel
28:45
Speaker 3: lobby attacks and ongoing from Barry Wise herself. But what
28:51
Speaker 3: we are watching here with Ben Shapiro and others is
28:55
Speaker 3: a serious, serious threat that I don't want to diminish
28:58
Speaker 3: in any way to Donald Trump and really to the
29:01
Speaker 3: entire country. Let's take a listen here to a preview
29:03
Speaker 3: of what we're going to be hearing now for the
29:04
Speaker 3: next sixty days.
29:05
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to Shapiro.
29:07
Speaker 9: Israel is going to have to respond to terrorism across
29:10
Speaker 9: its border.
29:10
Speaker 1: As we'll see.
29:11
Speaker 9: If the United States is going to suddenly become an
29:14
Speaker 9: advocate for the idea that Israel can't defend itself, then
29:17
Speaker 9: this is a giant l for the United States, and
29:19
Speaker 9: suddenly there's no difference between Israel defending itself and isabel
29:22
Speaker 9: Ot firing missiles and rockets at Israelis in Israeli territory. Okay,
29:29
Speaker 9: this is the problem. If you keep sending the signal
29:32
Speaker 9: to a terror backing regime that chance death to America.
29:36
Speaker 9: That you want to deal with them so badly that
29:37
Speaker 9: you're going to tell our allies in the region to
29:39
Speaker 9: stand down. You are giving them an enormous amount of
29:44
Speaker 9: for momentum, and that is a huge mistake, huge mistake.
29:48
Speaker 3: And a giant l here for the United States. The
29:51
Speaker 3: total fusing, Sir of Israeli a US interest.
29:54
Speaker 8: There is no separate you know, disconceptually to separate them
29:59
Speaker 8: is wrong from their person. Look, I think we have
30:01
Speaker 8: to remind ourselves of one very important thing. Yes, you're
30:04
Speaker 8: absolutely right, Sagar, this is going to be extremely tough.
30:07
Speaker 8: But Obama did win this fight. Obama defeated them back
30:12
Speaker 8: in twenty fifteen and defeated them in Congress as well,
30:15
Speaker 8: when there was this massive fight, and then every Republican
30:18
Speaker 8: was voting with these Radis at that time. That means
30:21
Speaker 8: that this can be one again. But it's going to
30:23
Speaker 8: be a hell of a fight. There's no doubt about it.
30:25
Speaker 8: It's after Obama won the fight that they managed to
30:28
Speaker 8: destroy the deal by commencing Trump in twenty eighteen to
30:31
Speaker 8: withdraw from the deal. But short of that, the president,
30:34
Speaker 8: once he puts down his foot, the track record is
30:38
Speaker 8: one in which he gets his way because these rallies,
30:42
Speaker 8: at the end of the day, despite the fact that
30:43
Speaker 8: they can put forward a tremendous amount of resistance and
30:48
Speaker 8: inflict significant political costs on the president, the president will win.
30:52
Speaker 8: The question is will he put down his foot firmly
30:56
Speaker 8: and focus on this matter, prioritize it, get distracted, and
31:01
Speaker 8: not let himself be convinced that it's better off for
31:05
Speaker 8: him not to fight this fight.
31:06
Speaker 2: Now.
31:07
Speaker 8: One thing I think is really fascinating when it comes
31:10
Speaker 8: to how the Trump administration is talking about this deal
31:14
Speaker 8: trying to sell this deal to the American public, which
31:17
Speaker 8: is really different from the manner in which the Obama
31:19
Speaker 8: administration did it, is that the Obama administration only focused
31:23
Speaker 8: on this as a nuclear deal. They love talking about
31:27
Speaker 8: the nuclear details, about all of the guarantees and all
31:30
Speaker 8: of the inspections, and they never wanted to touch on
31:33
Speaker 8: the idea that this could be the beginning of a
31:36
Speaker 8: better relationship between the two countries, that this could lead
31:39
Speaker 8: to a transformation of the region. If that were to happen,
31:42
Speaker 8: that would be a valid and valuable bonus. But it
31:46
Speaker 8: was not something that they want to use as a
31:47
Speaker 8: selling point, nor did they even embrace the idea that
31:51
Speaker 8: it would be a good thing to have a better
31:53
Speaker 8: relationship with von After this, Jade Vance's talking points are
31:57
Speaker 8: completely the reverse of this. He's starting off by saying, Hey,
32:00
Speaker 8: this is going to transform us Iron relations, this is
32:04
Speaker 8: going to transform the region as a whole, because we're
32:07
Speaker 8: going to end this enmity. Trump is talking about this
32:10
Speaker 8: as a peace steal. I think if you want to
32:12
Speaker 8: fight the Israelis on this in Washington, that is exactly
32:15
Speaker 8: the right way to do it. To go full on
32:19
Speaker 8: and explain that this is about changing the entire relationship
32:22
Speaker 8: and the region, enable the United States to get out
32:25
Speaker 8: of the Middle East because we shouldn't be there in
32:27
Speaker 8: the first place, and sell that to the American public
32:31
Speaker 8: instead of focusing on completely boring nuclear details that you know,
32:37
Speaker 8: most Americans will not be able to fully understand anyways,
32:39
Speaker 8: because none of them are The vast majority of us
32:41
Speaker 8: are not nuclear scientists. So I find that very fascinating.
32:45
Speaker 8: It's completely reverse of how the Obama administration approached this.
32:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, which makes sense stylistically, could not be more difference
32:51
Speaker 2: between the Obama administration and this administration.
32:54
Speaker 4: I wanted to play for you.
32:56
Speaker 2: Mark tieson who Trump had held up, you know, during
32:59
Speaker 2: the hostel, is someone we should all be paying attention to.
33:02
Speaker 2: Is very much in favor of the Iran war and
33:04
Speaker 2: now is very concerned about the potential end of war
33:08
Speaker 2: against Iran. He is raising specific concerns about the three
33:12
Speaker 2: hundred billion dollar reconstruction fund. This is be three guys,
33:15
Speaker 2: let's go ahead and take a listen to this.
33:17
Speaker 1: Apparently we're going.
33:18
Speaker 6: To give them, you know, we're going to give them sanctions,
33:20
Speaker 6: relief and reconstruction based on performance. But that means that
33:24
Speaker 6: we're going to be giving them a lifeline to revive
33:27
Speaker 6: their regime after we had decimated it. That is a
33:30
Speaker 6: that is a huge problem because the Iranians may comply
33:34
Speaker 6: for a short period of time, but then we're going
33:35
Speaker 6: to have a week American president and they're going to
33:37
Speaker 6: have gotten the money. And then there's talk of a
33:40
Speaker 6: reconstruction fund of hundreds of billions of dollars we didn't.
33:43
Speaker 6: They'll be like doing a Marshall Plan for Germany while
33:46
Speaker 6: the Nazis were still in power.
33:48
Speaker 1: So I'm anxious to see.
33:50
Speaker 6: What the details of THEDLR and what gets negotiated.
33:54
Speaker 1: But I'm concerned. I agree.
33:55
Speaker 2: It seems like, you know, this is one of the
33:57
Speaker 2: primary attacks on the understanding as we understand it and
34:01
Speaker 2: a potential deal. You heard from Shapiro and also Levin
34:05
Speaker 2: as we played earlier, that you know this is contrary
34:07
Speaker 2: to Israel's interest and put is very unfair to Israel.
34:11
Speaker 2: You also had John Podora saying, you know, Trump chicken out,
34:14
Speaker 2: sort of like going straight at his manhood and his
34:17
Speaker 2: masculinity and saying this is embarrassing and humiliating for him.
34:21
Speaker 4: But on the on the financial.
34:22
Speaker 2: Aspect of this, you know, what do we know about
34:25
Speaker 2: how this is all going to work out? And how
34:28
Speaker 2: do you think that the administration will try to spin that?
34:31
Speaker 2: Because of course, the right under the JCPOA, we heard
34:34
Speaker 2: endlessly about these palettes of cash, and you know have
34:37
Speaker 2: heard about this for years and years afterwards, I'm sure
34:39
Speaker 2: Trump has talked about it as well. And so now
34:41
Speaker 2: you have significant amount of money that is going to
34:44
Speaker 2: flow to Iran, much of which is their own assets. However,
34:47
Speaker 2: it seems like a difficult piece for them to try
34:49
Speaker 2: to sell.
34:50
Speaker 8: So I'm hearing this critique also from some folks from
34:53
Speaker 8: the Democratic side, and oh my god, they're going to
34:55
Speaker 8: get investments. Let's separate a couple of things. First of all,
34:59
Speaker 8: you have the unfreezing of their assets as a result
35:02
Speaker 8: of sanctions. Relieve, that's their own money that they will
35:05
Speaker 8: have access to again, which is what they use in
35:08
Speaker 8: order to be able to buy food, medicine or other things.
35:12
Speaker 8: Then you have what is called this investment fund. We
35:15
Speaker 8: have to remember Yvonians have suffered three hundred billion dollars
35:19
Speaker 8: plus in damages as a result of this war. So
35:22
Speaker 8: this is a reconstruction fund that whether the US is
35:25
Speaker 8: going to be part of it or not, we don't
35:26
Speaker 8: know yet, but it is an investment fund. This is
35:29
Speaker 8: the other countries in the region saying, okay, we are
35:32
Speaker 8: now going to try to have an economic relationship with
35:36
Speaker 8: yvon integrate ourselves with Ivanian economy as a way of
35:40
Speaker 8: building a buffer against a future war, because we want
35:45
Speaker 8: to make sure that we clearly cannot just rely on
35:48
Speaker 8: American basis or American weapons that actually ended up being
35:51
Speaker 8: a detriment to our security. So we're going to have
35:54
Speaker 8: to move away from this idea of just completely containing
35:56
Speaker 8: the Yvonians. We have to integrate with them as well.
35:59
Speaker 8: And if we do that, we will build bridges that
36:01
Speaker 8: enables peace to actually flourish in the region in the
36:04
Speaker 8: very same manner that after Second World War the Europeans
36:08
Speaker 8: needed to rebuild Germany in order to make sure that
36:11
Speaker 8: they integrated all of their economies and raise the cost
36:14
Speaker 8: of war. That is actually a very good thing. Now.
36:17
Speaker 8: I don't know if the US is going to be
36:19
Speaker 8: participating in it or not, But if the region wants
36:22
Speaker 8: to do this, and this is primarily going to be
36:25
Speaker 8: a regional thing, why on earth should the United States
36:28
Speaker 8: stand against that or even argue against that. Shouldn't it
36:31
Speaker 8: be be better for everyone if they actually are doing
36:34
Speaker 8: things for themselves in order to be able to make
36:36
Speaker 8: peace more viable and more less likely.
36:39
Speaker 1: We should be very.
36:40
Speaker 8: Happy about them. We should be very happy that as
36:42
Speaker 8: part of this deal, we're actually giving the region a
36:44
Speaker 8: chance to take care of these matters on their own
36:47
Speaker 8: and make sure that they can do things on their
36:49
Speaker 8: own that leads to peace rather than to the United
36:52
Speaker 8: States having to push, you know, build more bases there
36:55
Speaker 8: or bring more troops to that region.
36:57
Speaker 3: One of the things, though, sir, is that you know,
36:59
Speaker 3: as we continue to run then I was just looking.
37:01
Speaker 3: Israel's whole economy is only five hundred billion. Iran's ROMP
37:05
Speaker 3: economy is four hundred and thirty seven billion. So an
37:08
Speaker 3: un sanctioned, reconstructed Iran would be a many times bigger
37:13
Speaker 3: economic powerhouse in addition to strategic powerhouse, which would mean
37:17
Speaker 3: it's more important to the region, more important to the
37:20
Speaker 3: United States. But that's part of the reason why it
37:22
Speaker 3: seems to be so existential for them, and we're wasps
37:25
Speaker 3: in their press.
37:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, go go.
37:27
Speaker 8: Ahead, absolutely, I mean, this is part of the reason
37:29
Speaker 8: why the Israelis started to push for sanctions back in
37:31
Speaker 8: the mid nineteen nineties, in order to make sure that
37:34
Speaker 8: Iran would not emerge as a potential rival to Israel
37:38
Speaker 8: as a strategic partner for the United States. After the
37:42
Speaker 8: Cold War, the Israelis found themselves in a very, very
37:45
Speaker 8: dire situation. They were an outpost against Soviet penetration of
37:49
Speaker 8: the region, but there was no longer Soviet Union, and
37:51
Speaker 8: then the Persian Gulf War led to a scenario in
37:55
Speaker 8: which the US actually moved closer to the Arab states
37:58
Speaker 8: in the region, and Israel was increasingly seen as a
38:01
Speaker 8: liability rather than a strategic asset. It's during this period
38:04
Speaker 8: that the Israelis reframe their reliance, their alliance with the
38:08
Speaker 8: United States to not be a strategic one, but rather
38:11
Speaker 8: one based on shared values. I have no idea what
38:13
Speaker 8: that means, but nevertheless, that's when that term was coming up,
38:16
Speaker 8: precisely because the strategic underpinning of the relationship was now
38:21
Speaker 8: significantly weakened. And in that context, if the US and
38:26
Speaker 8: event actually rebuild their relations, and I'm not saying they
38:28
Speaker 8: will because I don't think there will be a partnership
38:30
Speaker 8: on an alliance, but if they were, this is a
38:33
Speaker 8: country that has gas, that has oil, that has a
38:35
Speaker 8: huge strategic locations geopolitically can control. This Rait of Hormuz,
38:39
Speaker 8: has a market of ninety plus million people. If sanctions
38:44
Speaker 8: are lifted, is probably going to be an economy three
38:46
Speaker 8: to four times the size of Israel. Has an industrial
38:49
Speaker 8: basis scientific base that is only second to none to
38:52
Speaker 8: Israel as itself. So it has all of the different
38:55
Speaker 8: things that could enable it to be a major, major
38:57
Speaker 8: player and an acid to the United States. One of
39:00
Speaker 8: the key things that held it back is partly the
39:03
Speaker 8: sanctions and Yvon's own government because of their mismanagement, because
39:07
Speaker 8: of their repressure, because of their corruption, and because of
39:11
Speaker 8: a political system that is just not capable of allowing
39:15
Speaker 8: the country to live up to its full potential.
39:17
Speaker 1: But this is.
39:18
Speaker 8: Something that these Raelis have been worried about for a
39:20
Speaker 8: very long time, and this is a nightmare scenario for them,
39:23
Speaker 8: not only that Trump would end the war but also
39:27
Speaker 8: lift the sanctions because the war weakens Yvon in the
39:31
Speaker 8: short term. Sanctions destroys the country over decades, slowly but
39:36
Speaker 8: surely destroys its social fabric. And the Israelis have been
39:40
Speaker 8: successful in having major sanctions on Iran for more than
39:43
Speaker 8: three or so decades. Now to see those lifted would
39:46
Speaker 8: be an absolutely devastating blow to their approach and to
39:51
Speaker 8: how they define their interests in the region.
39:53
Speaker 2: Let's put B five up just to underscore your point here.
39:57
Speaker 2: You know, you've got some quotes here and harets from
39:59
Speaker 2: various Nen Yahoo allies.
40:01
Speaker 4: Don't bullshit us.
40:02
Speaker 2: Trump raging at the treacherous United States over the Iran deal.
40:09
Speaker 2: What does this mean for Israel? You know, let's say,
40:11
Speaker 2: I mean, look, there's still a lot of question marks.
40:13
Speaker 2: But let's say the official signing happens this Friday.
40:16
Speaker 4: Let's say we get sixty days.
40:17
Speaker 2: Down the road and they're able to come to terms
40:19
Speaker 2: on the nuclear file and the other major outstanding issues
40:22
Speaker 2: which remain, and the sanctions are lifted and Iran is
40:26
Speaker 2: able to begin to rebuild. There is no regime change
40:32
Speaker 2: so far. It doesn't look like, you know, the proxy
40:36
Speaker 2: funding is contemplated as part of this deal either. How
40:40
Speaker 2: will Israel have to change, what will they have to
40:43
Speaker 2: reckon with? And what do you think that this will
40:45
Speaker 2: mean for Netanyahu in his own political standing?
40:49
Speaker 8: First of all, on the last part of that, this
40:51
Speaker 8: is going to be devastating for Natanyao, And part of
40:53
Speaker 8: the reason why you have this public meltdown in Israel
40:57
Speaker 8: is also politically motivated. It's all about the upcoming elections
41:01
Speaker 8: and to finally unseat him, and he will probably end
41:03
Speaker 8: up going to jail afterwards. So this is from his
41:06
Speaker 8: standpoint existential. But for Israel, the Israelis could adjust to
41:13
Speaker 8: this reality, change your security doctrine, recognize that they have
41:16
Speaker 8: to find some sort of a modus vivendi with a
41:18
Speaker 8: lot of different countries in the region, that they will
41:20
Speaker 8: not have security by constantly dominating their environment and thinking
41:24
Speaker 8: that they have to have total maneuverability in Syria, in
41:28
Speaker 8: the West Bank, in Lebanon in order to be secure
41:31
Speaker 8: but actually vie for real peace, something that we have
41:35
Speaker 8: absolutely not seen from the Israeli government for at least
41:37
Speaker 8: fifteen or so plus years. But I think, frankly more
41:42
Speaker 8: likely is that they will not have the capacity intellectually, creatively,
41:46
Speaker 8: emotionally to be able to steer their ship in a
41:50
Speaker 8: different direction, and instead you will see further attempts by
41:54
Speaker 8: the Israelis to sabotage this deal even after the sixty days,
41:58
Speaker 8: even after it's been established, just as they did with
42:04
Speaker 8: the JCPO. I think I mentioned on Talker's show yesterday
42:07
Speaker 8: that I sat down with APAC after the JCPA and
42:10
Speaker 8: I thought that, Okay, now it's going to be interesting
42:12
Speaker 8: to see how they're going to adjust to this reality.
42:14
Speaker 8: And I walked away realizing they're not going to adjust
42:16
Speaker 8: at all. They don't care that the deal has been sealed,
42:18
Speaker 8: that it is implemented. They're going to do everything they
42:20
Speaker 8: can to unravel it, and I suspect that that is
42:23
Speaker 8: the path that these rallies will.
42:24
Speaker 1: Go this time as well.
42:25
Speaker 8: That means and they succeeded exactly not under Obama, but
42:29
Speaker 8: they succeeded afterwards, and that may be their calculation that
42:32
Speaker 8: they will succeed afterwards. But in me is that during
42:35
Speaker 8: this period they're going to be in a direct confrontation
42:39
Speaker 8: with Trump in a manner that I don't think Trump
42:42
Speaker 8: potentially will be as restrained as Obama was. Remembered. One
42:46
Speaker 8: of the things that Obama did in order to kind
42:48
Speaker 8: of calm down these Raelies that he designed that ten
42:51
Speaker 8: billion or was it the ten year deal thirty billion
42:54
Speaker 8: in which you know, that was a way of trying
42:56
Speaker 8: to make sure that these Ralis calm down a little bit.
42:58
Speaker 8: We'll see if Trump does. There's several bills in Congress
43:01
Speaker 8: right now that are going to try to integrate the
43:03
Speaker 8: US military with the Israeli military, the US intelligence with
43:07
Speaker 8: with Israeli intelligence. He may end up accepting some of
43:11
Speaker 8: those things as some sort of a goodie that he
43:13
Speaker 8: gives to these Raelis in order to calm them down.
43:16
Speaker 3: Very good point, you know, if they do go. They
43:19
Speaker 3: still won't go quietly, almost certainly have to buy them
43:21
Speaker 3: off in some respect. We do want to shift now,
43:25
Speaker 3: stir just to this deportation story. Let's put B seven
43:29
Speaker 3: up here on the screen. This was the initial free
43:33
Speaker 3: press story from about six days ago. Will the US
43:36
Speaker 3: support Trita Parsi from J Solomon, who I believe was
43:40
Speaker 3: fired in disgrace, if I recall, is one of the
43:43
Speaker 3: Washington's most quoted opponents of the Iran war. The administration
43:46
Speaker 3: is waying whether to revoke his green card, with some
43:49
Speaker 3: officials arguing he isn't just another Pundit tell us a
43:52
Speaker 3: little bit about you know where you're caught off guard
43:55
Speaker 3: by this? Did you have some rumblings as something like
43:57
Speaker 3: this was going to happen? And what's been the general
44:01
Speaker 3: result now that it's been in public for six days?
44:05
Speaker 8: Thanks Ager, and thank you guys again for the petition
44:08
Speaker 8: and my support. I deeply, deeply appreciate that. So we
44:11
Speaker 8: knew that something was coming in the free press. They
44:15
Speaker 8: had reached out. We had no interest in talking to them.
44:17
Speaker 8: We don't consider them to be a legitimate outlet in
44:19
Speaker 8: any way, shape or form. But also we knew that
44:24
Speaker 8: Laura Lumer had been tweeting for a couple of weeks
44:26
Speaker 8: now trying to get me deported, and obviously she has
44:29
Speaker 8: a track record of every once in a while getting
44:31
Speaker 8: her away, so we knew that there wasn't an escalation
44:35
Speaker 8: of their attempts to silence me. As I write in
44:37
Speaker 8: my substack piece about this, they've been trying to silence
44:40
Speaker 8: and cancel me for more than twenty five years. The
44:43
Speaker 8: only difference now is that they're really going much further
44:46
Speaker 8: to try to actually deport me, or at least they say.
44:49
Speaker 8: But what was really fascinating here is that within hours
44:52
Speaker 8: of this report coming out, the State Department came out
44:55
Speaker 8: and denied it, and which is extremely unusual, but they
44:58
Speaker 8: came out and said that they don't have any plans
45:00
Speaker 8: at least now to deport me. And part of the
45:03
Speaker 8: reason why that happened is partly because of this public
45:06
Speaker 8: backlash that occurred, which was completely organic, we had nothing
45:09
Speaker 8: to do with it, and partly because there were elements
45:13
Speaker 8: inside the Trump administration that opposed this as well, and
45:16
Speaker 8: I think that led to this very unusual move of
45:19
Speaker 8: the State Department coming out and denying and essentially just
45:23
Speaker 8: completely glowing that story away. It was all based on
45:26
Speaker 8: one unnamed source in the State Department, and as I
45:29
Speaker 8: heard from some people inside, it may actually have been
45:31
Speaker 8: a rogue actor that hoped that by getting this story
45:34
Speaker 8: out there it could trigger an investigation, rather than they're
45:37
Speaker 8: actually having been an investigation to begin with. But for
45:41
Speaker 8: now it does seem to me that this backfired on them.
45:46
Speaker 8: But I don't think that they have given up. Just
45:48
Speaker 8: like with the fight against the JCPOI and the nucle deal,
45:51
Speaker 8: they will continue. And what I think is absolutely clear
45:54
Speaker 8: is that they can't win an argument. Clearly they can't
45:56
Speaker 8: win a war either. So all they have is they
45:58
Speaker 8: attempt to try to cancel in silence people.
46:00
Speaker 2: Well, I have to think not only the public outcry, also,
46:04
Speaker 2: as you said, there are some elements within the administration
46:06
Speaker 2: who were like, no, why would we do this, but
46:09
Speaker 2: also now the fact that Trump is on the side
46:11
Speaker 2: of a deal, like, look, we're on Trump's side now, right,
46:14
Speaker 2: Like yes, please go ahead. So I mean, but that's
46:17
Speaker 2: that's the nature of him, right, He's personalized the presidency.
46:20
Speaker 2: Everything's about whether you're with him or against him. In
46:22
Speaker 2: this moment, I think you're you know you are a
46:26
Speaker 2: sort of consummate diplomat and Annaly's the whole idea of
46:28
Speaker 2: Quincy is to bring together the anti war right and left,
46:32
Speaker 2: something that obviously resonates very much with us on this show,
46:35
Speaker 2: you know, which part of why we love you having
46:37
Speaker 2: you on, and also because your analysis is so important
46:41
Speaker 2: and so so spot on. So I would think that
46:43
Speaker 2: the fact that now we're in the phase of let's
46:45
Speaker 2: try to make this deal happen, that that would also
46:48
Speaker 2: provide you some protection for the moment, not that there
46:51
Speaker 2: isn't a that there are many guarantees for the long term.
46:54
Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, I certainly hope so. And I think you
46:56
Speaker 8: also put your finger something very important. I personally do
46:59
Speaker 8: think that the elevation of these attacks, it's not just
47:02
Speaker 8: because of the war and the fact that I'm out
47:04
Speaker 8: more in the media, but it is also because Quincy
47:07
Speaker 8: and Breaking Points and many others right now are trying
47:10
Speaker 8: to really build bridges between the left and the right
47:12
Speaker 8: so that we have united front against this uni party
47:15
Speaker 8: war machine. And that is a massive threat to all
47:19
Speaker 8: of these people who want us to just dominate every
47:21
Speaker 8: region of the world militarily. You have seven hundred and
47:23
Speaker 8: fifty bases, constantly be at war with someone, invent new
47:27
Speaker 8: enemies so that we can have a larger military budget,
47:30
Speaker 8: et cetera, et cetera. And the fact that the left
47:32
Speaker 8: and the right is coming together in opposition to that
47:34
Speaker 8: is a huge threat. And I think Quincy has played
47:36
Speaker 8: a role in all of this, which makes it all
47:38
Speaker 8: the more valuable for them to try to silence and
47:40
Speaker 8: attack us.
47:41
Speaker 1: Right.
47:42
Speaker 2: So if you hadn't been effective, they wouldn't care. That's
47:44
Speaker 2: they keep going on, Sian. You know, we like having
47:46
Speaker 2: you out there. It's the fact that what you say
47:49
Speaker 2: resonates and appeals to a lot of people, regardless of
47:52
Speaker 2: their partisan filiation. That's exactly why they mark you on
47:56
Speaker 2: as a target.
47:57
Speaker 1: Wow.
47:57
Speaker 3: Yeah, the war is not yet over, but we do
48:00
Speaker 3: have Again, we have a link to the petition and
48:02
Speaker 3: then we have a link to doctor Parci's substack, which
48:05
Speaker 3: is down in the description. We encourage you to go
48:08
Speaker 3: and to subscribe and to keep updated for all the
48:10
Speaker 3: excellent analysis.
48:11
Speaker 1: Thank you very much, sir, Thank you so much for
48:13
Speaker 1: having me. Really appreciate it. Thank you