Latest / The Front / What’s really going on inside Iran?

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What’s really going on inside Iran? · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: It's Friday, July four, twenty twenty five. Unions are throwing
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: their weight around in the public servants and the government
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  Speaker 1: seems to approve. The Albanese government has put the hard
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  Speaker 1: word on agency chiefs to meet regularly with union bosses
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: through a powerful new committee. A man charged with child
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  Speaker 1: sex offenses in Melbourne has been revealed as the president
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  Speaker 1: of an amateur radio club that worked with local Scouts.
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  Speaker 1: It's believed Michael Simon Wilson was connected to alleged pedophile
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  Speaker 1: childcare worker Joshua Phillips, who was this week charged with
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  Speaker 1: dozens of offenses. Those stories alive right now at the
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  Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au. What's really going on in Iran?
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Does it have a viable nuclear program? How deeply involved
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: at China and Russia in helping their Today Foreign Editor
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan on the truth about the most secretive regime
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: on Earth. It took a matter of minutes, but we'll
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: be talking about it for years. The June twenty twenty
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: two raid by the United States military on Iran's nuclear
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  Speaker 1: facilities for dou Natanz and Isfahan was supposed to leave
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: nothing but rubble. It's been obliterated, totally obliterated. But then
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: US defense spies said not so much.
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  Speaker 2: A preliminary Pentagon report indicates the damage was limited, seeing
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear program was only set back a few months.
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  Speaker 1: And then their boss, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth doubled down
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: on the rubble. You better get a big shovel and
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: go really deep because Iran's nuclear program is obliterated. And
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  Speaker 1: now the CIA says that's right.
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  Speaker 2: CIA Director John Ratcliffe released a statement saying several key
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  Speaker 2: Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: rebuilt over the course of years.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: It's confusing, and when things are confusing, we bring in
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: the foreign editor Greg Sheridan to make it all clear.
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: The truth is clear. Nobody knows. That's a very unsatisfactory answer.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: The truth is nobody knows the true extent of the
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: damage at Fourdah, not even the Iranians, because nobody has
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: been down there to dig through the rubble. Were any
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: of the facilities left intact inside Fourdoh? What happened to
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: the four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium enriched nearly to
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: weapons grade, which the Uranians have as a stockpile, which
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: they had stored in Fourdo because they thought it was
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: safer there. Did they get it out? Has it been
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: forever encased in a sort of landslide caused by this
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: bunker bomb? The Americans put twelve bunker busters onto four Todoh,
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: and a lot of them down a ventilation shaft. I
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: wouldn't have liked to be at the bottom of that myself.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: It's very clear they've done big, big damage. But I'm
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: sure Trump was exaggerating when he says they totally obliterated
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: the facilities. But more than exaggeration, the truth is we
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: just don't know.
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  Speaker 1: Before those strikes happened, there was talk that if they
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: were dropped on a place like Fourdo, essentially a nuclear
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: facility inside a mountain, that they would destroy the mountain.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: In fact, what we saw from surveillance photographs afterwards were
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: quite neat holes in the mountain, and all that damage
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: is underground. When you saw those images, Greg, were you
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: surprised that the mountain at photo for example, had not
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: been destroyed.
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: No, But I'm not claiming to have great technical expertise
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: on what happens to a mountain when you put a
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: bunker buster inside it. These bombs are quite unique, and
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: if they weren't so distractive, they'd be quite beautiful. They
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: weigh thirty thousand pounds about fourteen thousand kilograms. I think
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: about half that weight is actually explosive, So they are
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: the biggest non nuclear bombs in the world. They are
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: guided by a version of GPS to a very precise target,
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: and then they burrow sixty meters underground before they blow up. Now,
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  Speaker 2: I guess it's like building the Snowy hydro project or something.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: If you go far enough underground, you won't disturb the
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: surface of the mountain that much. But we know that
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: uranium in Richmond's cascades are very very delicate machines. In
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: the past is rather than the United States have been
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: able to wipe them out with computer viruses just to
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: make them vibrate in the wrong way, and then they
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  Speaker 2: sort of have a nervous collapse. They can't deal with
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: the vibrations and completely stop functioning. Now, the National Atomic
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Energy Agency thinks that whatever happened, that would be enough
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: to destroy those cascades. The question would be really whether
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  Speaker 2: the Iranians have other cascades somewhere else. There's another mountain,
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: Pickaxe Mountain, not far from the Tans, I think, where
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  Speaker 2: the Iranians are said to be building the secret tunnels
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: and so on. I think the truth is the Americans
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: in Israelis will keep a very close watch on this,
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  Speaker 2: and if they think the Iranians are getting close to
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: reviving the program, they'll do it again. But there are
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: a lot of other fascinating things out of the war.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Israelis completely suppressed Iranian air defense, so
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: the Israelis and the Americans had complete freedom of movement
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  Speaker 2: across the Iranian skies. The level of knowledge that the
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Israelis had about where every nuclear scientist was, every member
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. I mean, the one
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: telephone call I'd hate to get in Iran would be congratulations,
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  Speaker 2: you've been promoted to the head of the Islamic Revolutionary
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  Speaker 2: Guard Corps. I mean, I certainly make sure my affairs
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: were in order. If I got that, well, guess what,
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  Speaker 2: You've been seconded to the nuclear development program. I think
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  Speaker 2: those would be very unattractive phone calls. The other thing, Claire,
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  Speaker 2: is it seems there's a very high consensus that the
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: so called converter was destroyed. Now, to make a weapon,
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: you have to convert highly enriched uranium into metal. But
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  Speaker 2: on the reporting, the Uranians can't make a converter. They
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  Speaker 2: were given one or presumably sold it by China quite
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: some time ago, So either China or Russia or North
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  Speaker 2: Korea would have to consciously supply them with another converter. So,
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  Speaker 2: in a sense, it doesn't matter how many cascades they've
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  Speaker 2: got and how many tons of enriched uranium. If they
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: want to make an actual nuclear warhead, they'll need a
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: converter again, as well as a fully functioning program. Well,
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: they might get one next week from China, or China
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  Speaker 2: might decide that it doesn't want to have an Islamic
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: bomb just nearby anyway after all, and they may never
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: get one.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Iran's President Massud Pozeshkian has now signed a law saying
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: that Iran won't cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
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  Speaker 1: Does that mean anything in practice? Greg Or were they
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: not cooperating in the first.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Place, Well, they were partly cooperating and they are partly
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: not cooperating, So they did allow IAEA inspectors in to
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  Speaker 2: some extent, so that meant you could keep some surveillance
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: on some of their facilities. A rag nation like Iran
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  Speaker 2: can still do things in secret at other facilities, but
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  Speaker 2: it has to be a bit careful of what it's
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  Speaker 2: doing under the eye of the IAEA. It's completely inconceivable
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  Speaker 2: that while they are not cooperating with the IAEA, they
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: get any real relief from sanctions. I mean, people say,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: if he Ran really wanted a nuclear weapon, it would
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: have had one by now. But that ignores two or
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: three fundamental things. First of all, the Americans of the
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Israelis constantly interfered with the Iranian program. The Israelis engaged
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: in targeted assassinations, physical sabotage, and cyber sabotage that was very,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: very effective. And Secondly, the Iranians lacked money and resources
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: because they were subject to such crippling sanctions and pulling
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: out of the International Atomic Energy Agency so definitively guarantees
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: that they'll be subject to those sanctions. And it doesn't
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: matter who succeeds Donald Trump, it could be Alexandra or
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: Caazio Cortez won't she won't lift the sanctions if they're
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: not cooperating with the IAEA.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Coming up? Is there a chance Iran's regime could really fall?
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: One of my favorite TV shows, Greg, I think I've
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: tried to get you to watch it in the past.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: I just want to talk to you about it, so
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: you are going to have to watch it as your homework.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: It's called Tehran. It's on Apple TV Plus, and it's
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: about a smoking hot Israeli female Mossad spy who's sent
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: to Iran to penetrate the country and try to destroy
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: all their ambitions. Her cover is blown as as soon
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: as she gets in the country, and she's being hunted
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  Speaker 1: by the head of the Revolutionary Guard. What emerges over
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  Speaker 1: the course of the show is that even though senior
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: officials in the Iranian government are uncomfortable with the regime,
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  Speaker 1: don't like the repression of women, they are deeply patriotic
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: and they don't want Iran to suffer or to collapse.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Is that part of the problem here for Israel that
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: we can talk about regime change in Iran, but even
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  Speaker 1: Iranians who don't like the government are very very patriotic.
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  Speaker 2: Well clear, that's true in a way, but I mean
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  Speaker 2: everyone is patriotic. I mean, Greenland is a patriotic you know,
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  Speaker 2: most Landers are patrion everybody's patriotic. I think all the
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: talk of regime change, both by the Israelis and the
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: Americans was just a bit of bluff, really. I mean
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  Speaker 2: it's just designed to put a bit of psychological pressure
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  Speaker 2: on the Iranian government. I mean, if you are seriously
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: pursuing regime change, you try to kill the government and
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: you back people to replace the government. Well, the Israelis
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  Speaker 2: were very meticulous in not targeting the civilian leadership of Iran.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: If either of the Americans or the Israelis had been
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: pursuing regime change, they would have run a different kind
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: of operation, and they would have tried to identify the
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Iranians who they would have liked to take power. Now,
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  Speaker 2: the Iranian society is very complex and very diverse, but
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  Speaker 2: everything we can know leads us to believe that they
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  Speaker 2: hate the regime. Ninety million people, very ancient society, ethnically,
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  Speaker 2: quite diverse. They're not a Persians, they're certainly not all share.
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  Speaker 2: You get regime change in a society like that if
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: there's a popular uprising and the security forces won't shoot
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  Speaker 2: their own people. Where there have been a lot of
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: popular uprisings in Iran over the last twenty years, but
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  Speaker 2: the security forces have always been quite happy to arrest,
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  Speaker 2: beat to death and shoot the citizens engaging in the demonstrations.
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  Speaker 2: But another way you get regime change is if there's
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  Speaker 2: a division within the elite leadership. Now some of the
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: elite leadership will be saying, what did we get out
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: of these hundreds of billions of dollars that we invested
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: in Russian defense systems, missile capabilities, nuclear weapons programs. The
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Great Satan and the Little Satan between them have just
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: wiped it all out. Now, none of that guarantees you're
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: going to get change in Iran, And you could get
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  Speaker 2: change that is worse. You could get a worse government,
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: you know, a government which became needless. But I think
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: this war will have exacerbated the divisions within Iran. There
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: is a little bit of a rally around the flag effect,
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: but there's no evidence of any affection for this government.
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  Speaker 2: This is a This is a widely despised government by
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: a pretty lictric population.
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  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: all the latest from the Middle East, as well as
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: all the nation's best news, sport and politics anytime at
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: the Australian dot com. Dou Yah