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The Players Championship PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear the left?
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: What's up? Everyone? Tyler tambalein here aka Totag and Tambo
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: Back for another edition of Leverage Lane. Here on the
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: ship at Nation YouTube Station. Got my guy Alex Blickel
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: here with me as always, gonna be breaking down all
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: things Players Championship. We'll try and keep it short and
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: sweet little Max Crosby esque and his time with the
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Ravens short and sweet, but it's over not sweet for
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: everybody I know. But Alex, how you doing, my friend?
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: We got a chance to do the Mayo Show yesterday
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: and went through some stuff, but this show is a
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: little bit different. We're gonna cover it from a few
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: different nas.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be a really fun one. I
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: think people are hopefully really going to enjoy it. We're
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: gonna get really into the weeds on some topics and
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: some topics that, like, I think everyone's familiar with, but
• 1:11
  Speaker 3: maybe they've never heard why these concepts are so powerful
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: and so important to really think through. So I'm really
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: excited to talk through this one. I know we're excited
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: to just talk about Sawgrass and the Players Championship. And
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: I don't have any tickets this week. But then actually
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: freed me up to take a bit of a unique
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: strategy for myself. So it's gonna be a lot of
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: fun to talk through this one.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll hear about that later as well. Just you
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: guys know how we covered on this show. We're gonna
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: be covering it from both the single entry, which is
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: better focused or more focused than most shows are doing
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: on just single entry in general, Alex being particularly solid
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: at that, and then he talks about it. I know
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: he's got a different strategy for this week, but it
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: will apply all the same, and I think it's gonna
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: be a really good topic. We're gonna talk about wave stacking,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: the math behind it, how it all works. And then
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: also people talk about certain segments but they don't actually
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: relate them to topics, and in this case, it's like
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: there's also wave stacking related to content selection and we'll
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: have more on that in a minute, and trying to
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: blend the world of all things DFS together, So going
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: to be that. We will talk about the weather that
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: we're seeing, the north wind that Alex mentioned for anybody
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: that's caught it this week and people that don't know
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: that and maybe do no golf and want to go back.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: It's think Hole seventeen the year it was like Brooks,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Xander and one other. I forget who the third was
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: with them. I was thinking it was Burns, but it
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: might have been somebody else. But anyway, where they just
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: hit the shots in the air, turned around and laughed
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: before the balls could even land because they knew exactly
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: where those balls were going into the water. So keep
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: that in mind. We'll talk about that, and then we'll
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: talk about the chalk build, how to leverage it in
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: both single entry and m and all kinds of stuff throughout.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: But Alex, where do you want to get started here
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: for this week? I'll let you sort of lead the way.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: We will have a one and done betting segment a
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: little bit later with a couple of things quick. But
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: anything else you want to talk about to start things
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: off with the players.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think where we should start is just kind
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: of a general discussion about why wavestacking is powerful and
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: how we can actually like use that to our advantage,
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: why not doing it and annoying it can be really problematic,
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: and then move that into the actual like approach for
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: this week and what we want to do, how we
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: want to approach this wave, and so where I'll start
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: is just a little bit of kind of honestly like
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: mathematical discussion. So apologies if this is boring, but I
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: think it's a really kind of key thing to understand
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: and think through. And it's a very different type of
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: correlation because obviously when we say, like hey, we're wave stacking,
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: we're trying to add correlation. But there are multiple types
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: of correlation, and it's a very different type of correlation
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: than what a lot of DFS players are used to
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: with NFL. So I think, you know, Joe Burrow throws
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: a touchdown to Jamar Chase, those guys are correlated because
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: their performance is directly affecting one another. When Chase catches
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: a sixty yard touchdown, that's also a sixty r touchdown
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: for Joe Burrow. They are directly impacting each other's scores.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: That's different than in PGA, where you know, just because
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: two guys are in the same wave, Like let's see,
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: we've got Scotty and Tommy Fleetwood are in the same
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: wave this week, and Scotty makes a birdie, it doesn't
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: help Tummy in any way. So they're not correlated in
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: the same way, but they are positively correlated because what
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: we are trying to do when we are making projections
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  Speaker 3: is trying to capture what that players like. True expectation is,
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: what is true average and median outcome is. And so
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: way you can think about that is like, if they
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: played this tournament in these exact conditions a million times,
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: what would their average score be? And our projections are
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: trying to estimate that true expectation. And we can do
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: a pretty good job most of the time. But when
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: we're faced with a variable as uncertain as whether these
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: waves can create conditions where we might be a full
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: stroke per round off on Scotty Scheffler's projection for the
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: first two rounds or a full you know, maybe half
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: a stroke wrong. And the thing is, we're the way
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: in which we are wrong about Scotty, we are also
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: wrong about every other player in that wave. If we're
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: overestimating Scotti by a full stroke, we're also overestimating Tommy
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: and Colin and Hovelin and Henley by a full stroke.
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: So I think I was trying to think of, you know,
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: a good way to kind of think about this, and
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: here's what I came out with. So tell me, Tambo,
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: if this makes sense to you. Every Thursday, we get
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: to the opening t shot and we all open the
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: DraftKings app and we search through our lineups and we
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: look at ownership and we say, oh, nice, I got
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: this guy at ten percent or damn, I don't know
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: if I would have played this guy if I knew
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: he'd be this high owned. Right. Imagine if we lived
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: in like some hypothetical world where instantly as soon as
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: lineup's locked, we knew the exact weather and we knew
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: the exact way or the exact effect we would have
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: on scoring, and so we could open our lineup and
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: we could see, oh, nice, I get half a stroke
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: advantage on Rory this week. Right, get half a stroke
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: advantage on Hideki. And if you do that, if you
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: get that half a stroke when your first two guys,
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: you want that half stroke advantage to apply to everybody
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: in your lineup. You don't want three guys to be
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: helped by the wave advantage and the other three to
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: be hurt by it. You want everybody helped. And so
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: in a week like this where we know they're going
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: to be people who are full stacking earlier, we know
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: there are going to be people who are full stacking
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: late if you ignore that. The only way that you
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: come out on top is if there actually is zero advantage.
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: If there's have stroke advantage or even like a quarterstroke advantage,
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: that's actually really important. And anybody who's stacking is going
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: to have an advantage over you. And so we're going
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: to talk more about like what our own approaches and
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: how we're building lines this week, and I think that's
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: a really kind of key point to keep in mind.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: I want to ask you something on that, because I
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: don't disagree with anything you're saying. I want to clarify
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: something though, because you're always the best at talking through
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: the math on this side of things, and you literally
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: do projections and ownership for a living right on top
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: of everything else that you do. You've got that going
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: for you as well, and they're quite good. So just
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: noting that, you know, a lot of people talk about this,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: and we talk about it a ton of obviously being
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: baked in already. Now I know there's other sites and things,
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: you know, even data Golf and other sites now coming
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: up with Oh, we can peg the stroke advantages during
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: the waves and you can adjust for that. But even
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: when you adjust for that and it adjusts the projections,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: which most of us just do behind the scenes, it's
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: like we're already adjusting for that. It's been known for
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: years at other sites that we're doing that with projections.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: We've been doing the same. We are adjusting for these
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: things because they're important. If it's still telling you though
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: that hey, you can still play, you know, somebody asked
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: here we're mostly talking about full stacking, like what we
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: would call a six zero. You're going all ampm guys.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: But of note, a lot of the times, if you're
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: not getting as I've been calling it lately, if you're
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: not getting that British open style weather where it's like
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: two and a half to three strokes, it is adjusting
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: the projection still. But in reality what you're seeing more
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: and I know you do a ton on this stuff,
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: it feels to me like it more so project It
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: adjusts the ownership more than anything, and then you are
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: seeing an optimizers that you can actually still have really
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: good lineups that are for you know, four twos or
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: five ones or things like that. So how does that
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: fit into the picture. That's kind of what the added
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: bonus here is about we want to talk about.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I love this question, and I think it gets too, honestly,
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: like something that you and I talk about a lot,
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: which is I think you and I, especially among people
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: who are involved in the projection process, in some way,
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: we probably agree that projections aren't a big part of
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: our process where we are really trying to focus on
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: the full range of outcomes of players. And so the
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: main point here is that maybe maybe the projection is
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: already accounting for it that you're looking at and you know,
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: a guy is projecting at point one instead of point
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: five strokes gain or something like that per round, and
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: you say, okay, well he's still he's still you know,
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: close to as good as some of these guys who
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: are are higher owned. Well, the problem there is what
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: happens if that point four stroke advantage or that point
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: four stroke disadvantage also like dramatically lowers his odds of
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: winning or dramatically lowers his odds of a time if
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: I finish, or dramatically or his odds of a top
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: ten finish. So I actually think it's important to look
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: through the entire week and say, okay, well, what happens
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: if they get to the weekend. Right, So one of
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: the things I always look out for in these wave
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: advantage situations are what does Saturday look like? In other words,
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: if I get a guy to just sneak through the
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: cut and he's let's say, eight strokes back, does he
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: have a chance to then make a run on the weekend.
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: And one of the ways in which that he's going
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: to have a better chance than usual to make a
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: run on the weekend is if the Saturday weather looks
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: like the earlier tea time the better, where maybe Saturday
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: is going to look like, you know, an equal wave
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: advantage that we're trying to avoid or trying to play
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: into on either Thursday or Friday. And then you can say,
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: all right, now, all I got to do is get
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: my guys through the cut line, and now they have
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: a chance to make a run in it. Because anyone
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: who's at the lead, obviously they're gonna have a chance
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: to stay at the lead. They're playing against guys who
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: also have those really difficult conditions. But anyone who's a
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: little bit further back in the pack is going to
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: have the more scorable Saturday conditions to put themselves back
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: in contention. So, uh, that's one of the things I
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: look at. And then the other thing I'll say there
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: is if it's weird, because, like I think part of
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: what you're asking is, let's say you have a lineup
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: that you like, and you're you're going with the wavestack
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: you think is going to be advantageous. You've got four
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: guys in there, ready, Can you be contrariant and take
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: two values on the other side because you really like them?
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: I think the answer is yes, you can. But if
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: the if the advantage is small enough that those guys
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: are still under owned, I think more often than not,
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: you're better off instead of doing a four to two,
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: you're better off just going six to oh the other
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: way and saying, now all six of my guys are
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: under owned, and they're not under owned because they're bad players,
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: because they're risky players. Like the I'm now getting six
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: really high quality golfers who are only under owned because
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: of the wave advantage. And if the weather skews a
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: little bit in my favor, now the lineup as a
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: whole is going to be much much, much better. So
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: it's one of those things where like it's it's something
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: you can do, But I think the optimal way to
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: play is something different.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for me, it's kind of a mix of both.
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: But I would say, like, it's one thing that I
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: think you nailed at the end there that people overlook
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: is like what you're seeing in that other wave. And
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: I'll use Showdown for this. This is obviously the evergreen
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: part of the show, so you guys can have this
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: as a takeaway for future. But like, I want a
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: ton of money in round two and round three Showdown
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: playing five ones, but my ones are selective. I don't
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: just have random one offs falling into the lineup. I'm saying, Okay,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: there's Sebu Kim, Scottie Scheffler, some guys that I'm remembering of,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: like you know that I would plug in from the
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: Justin Thomas that I remember having really good rounds. And
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: it's like, but I selected that four to five. I
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: built a bunch of six o's and then I let
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: the five ones flow freely and got just a small
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: percentage of each. I was still leveraged, I still had it.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: But if it was one of those guys. But I'm
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: not trying to find the diamond in the rough. I'm
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: just saying I'll take from the three to five guys
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: that I'm comfortable with. To your point, on a week
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: like this where you could see that advantage either one
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: way or the other. That's why it's oftentimes better even
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: if it's close to still stay within a six to
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: zero because in that scenario you're talking about, it's like,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: it's what's more likely you get the last one or
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: two guys right from a wave that's already seemingly going
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: that direction, or that you hand picked the exact two
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: from the other side that upset the two that you
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: didn't take from the current side. And that's the thought
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: process around that.
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: So well, and to your point there, like I think
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: showdown is a different conversation because I mean, there are
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: how many guys in this field? One hundred and twenty.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: One and twenty three I think with the new Brooks rule.
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: Okay, so you've got a huge field here, and compare
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: that to like Saturday Showdown last week when they were
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: fifty one guys on the course. Yeah, fifty guys on
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: the course. So the ownerships if on if this past Saturday,
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: if everyone was trying to or if enough of the
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: field was trying to stack the early wave, they were
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: probably only like let's say two or three guys that
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: you possibly could have chosen over nine thousand dollars who
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: were teeing off early. So all three of those guys
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: are gonna be like forty percent owned if you deviate
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: from one of those guys too. Let's say a Rory mcilray.
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: I wonder if I picked him because I used him
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: on Saturday and they got the withdraw at five percent
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: ownership and a line of that did really well. Yes,
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: that's why I'm picking him. But for owned to five
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: percent owned for one guy, that's a much different bet
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: than you know, going from let's say like thorpe Bjornsen
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: to a Keith Mitchell this week.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and just noting on this, Jerry Matt said, the
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: projections put out by different sites will be biased driven
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: based on the weather wave implied benefit for stroke. Yes,
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: and that's what we were saying early, Like most sites
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: are doing this already. You know, some are creating programs
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: that make it seem like they have some crazy advantage
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: or something. Most are just baking it in naturally. But
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: the point of this was is that in some cases,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: and that's why it's not always just about weather. Everyone
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: always takes wavestacking as it has to be weather this week.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: I can tell you what, even if there was nothing
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: right now about the it's not just the weather. Let
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: me put it this way. That's driving Morikawa, Scottie, Ludwig, Sewu, Henley, Fitzpatrick, Nap,
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: all these guys. But guess what they all go out AMPM.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: So if AMPM gets driven on top of that, now
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: you're actually seeing potential for guys being over owned something
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: like the Stone or I like, so here's an example, Alex.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: I know at FTN you guys have GBP scores. That's
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: part of the stuff that's baked into it. We're like,
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: wait a minute, now it's getting to like a level
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: that's a bit high here. And then for our stuff
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: on the stone, we have the optal rates. There's simulation
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: driven results that we're saying over ten thousand tournaments this
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: played out. This is how often this golfer is likely
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: to show up in the optimal build. And then you're
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: seeing it like, okay, they're optimal to show up nineteen
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: percent of the time, but they're twenty eight percent on
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: now because of this situation, Does it mean it's a
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: bad play. No, you can get there in other ways.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Not who you play, it's how you play them. They're
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: clearly still likely to be optimal nineteen percent of the time,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: but when it's really picking up that steam, that's where
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: you can look for spots to leverage it. And remember,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: just like Alex always talks about with if you to
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: scotty or not, if you scotty, what does that do
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: for the other positions? Well, now you're getting more six
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: k and seven K guys and less of the eights
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: and nine. It's the same thing here if Morikawa, let
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: me just use an obvious example because we're gonna get
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: to full on player stuff in a minute. For this week,
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: if Morikawa keeps getting bloated up, how do how do
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: Xander and Hideki fair at one hundred two hundred bucks less,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: three hundred bucks less whatever than him? Two hundred and
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: three hundred less. For Xander and Matsiama, with Seawou getting
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: bloated up and Morikawa getting bloated up, how do those
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: other two fair? They obviously go backwards. It doesn't necessarily
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: say they're better golfers or that they will have a
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: better result, but it just to show again that one
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: thing dictates the other and even without any weather involved.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: Right now Marikawa and Seawou are already getting the ownership,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: and then if more people go am PM, it could
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: push that up as well. I don't want to add
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: one last thing here. I'll let you rebuttal it, but
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: most at the very end, like our last stuff is
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: six pm Eastern on Wednesday night. We do four updates
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: on the week with our projections ownership. I know you
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: guys are going to the last minute, of course, I'm
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: assuming same at your side, but we're making adjustments the
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: morning of if we have to. If stuff changes, and
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: if things come up, we will notify usually if it's
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: big enough to do so. If something drastic changes, if
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: nothing else really changes, then it's a lot of the
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: case if you don't really know. And that's why I
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: always say if you have an MME. It's why I'm
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: fine with anyone say whatever you want. Oh must be
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: nice to have one hundred and fifty or of course
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: you can play all the angles. It's why if you
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: had all the money in the world, you don't have
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: to put it on one stock. You can play. You
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: can build a portfolio stocks and have different leverage and
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: angles and hedges and advantages that way and risk. It's
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: the same in MME. But just like in single entry,
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: as this show is literally called leverage lane, you will
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: find your own lane and run with it, and if
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: it works out, it works out. If it doesn't, it doesn't.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: But you're playing to be right and win all the
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: money when you are right being in that right lane.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: So I don't know what you want to say to
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: all that, Alex, but just a few things that came
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: to mind from stuff I was seeing here.
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we're doing the same sort of thing. My final usually,
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: my final update for FTN usually goes up around like
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: nine PM. I like seeing how all the different sites
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: are kind of talking about the weather advantages and monitoring
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: how it's affecting projections around the industry, that sort of thing. So,
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: and I've got to do NBA ownership up until seven o'clock,
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: so I can't even start the final update until that's over. Yeah,
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: but yeah, I agree with all that, and I think
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: the next kind of point to talk through is, Okay,
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: so how are we actually approaching our own lineups? And
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: one of the key things that I think is worth
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: noting is there are two ways to do it. The
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: first is you can say, okay, I've got one lineup.
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: I think the you know, the the PMAM is under owned,
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: so I'm gonna stack PMAM and now you go find
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: your favorite players in that wave. The opposite approach, and
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: one that I actually like quite a bit, is looking
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: at the GPP scores and finding the players that I
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: like the most first. And now let's say I think, okay,
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: Xander Schoffley is the most under owned player over nine
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: thousand dollars, and then my favorite value is Keith Mitchell
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: this week. Oh look, they're both in the PMAM wave.
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: I guess I'll finish my lineup by turning this into
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: a PMAM stack, right, and so letting the plays that
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: I like drive which side I stack, maybe even more
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: so than picking a stack first and then finding the
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: players that fit at best. And obviously that changes if
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: you're doing single entry, if you're doing three entry, but
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: as someone who's typically single entry, that's usually my approach.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: Now this week, and we can talk more about about why,
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: but this week, I think the weather and the conditions,
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: there's such a wide range of outcomes that I actually
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: do want both sides of it, and so I'm currently
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: planning to do three entry this week and stack both sides,
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: and then I'll probably choose my favorite side to stack twice.
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll talk more about that, I think after. I
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: want to just get through some of this. But it
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: almost went like a little bit to what Jerry was
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: saying here again too, because again this is what I
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: always get into with people, where it's like they turn
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: themselves into something that they don't have to be. Where
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: it's like, you don't like, you are allowed to play
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: three entries this week and you've decided based on the
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: information at hand. I'm not going to play my standard
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: one lineup, pick six guys only and live with it.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: I'm going to take advantage of the information I have
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: and use it to what I think is my advantage
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: and go a three entry max to leaning one way
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: to to the side I think one. They're like, there's
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: multiple decision factors that are going into what you're doing versus,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: like I said earlier, if you if you have an
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: MME approach here, and you truly believe that there's going
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: to be a wave advantage, whether it's one way or
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: the other, you don't know due to things like delays
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: and this that and the other. Then if I had
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: a portfolio, I do spoiler alert, I'll be stacking both waves.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: So that's the whole point. And people say, oh, that
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: and that must be nice to cover everything. You can
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: do it too. I'm not telling you to play more money.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: If you play a one twenty five dollars lineup in
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: the Million Maker and say I'm just gonna play to
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: win the million, it's entertainment, I get it. But you're
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: allowed to play the one dollar twenty max and play
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: ten lineups one way and ten the other and give
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: yourself more chances if you feel that's what this this
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: week is for you. If you feel that's the way
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: you want to go, You're allowed to play a twelve
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: dollars single entry with a nine dollars satellite and just
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: play one lineup and put twenty one bucks in and
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: say I'm gonna play it this way, and if I'm right,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: I'm right. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I'm gonna
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: play a smaller field with a single entry. I'm willing
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: not to win the million and just win whatever the
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: first place prize is there, but I'll least hopefully win
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: a ticket if it comes up short or wins that too,
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: and like play smart if you will quote unquote or
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: like kind of more sustainable. It's to each their own
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: on all of this stuff, and everybody has their own reasons.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: But that's the point is if you think there's something
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: like this could happen, you should be building for it.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: You are allowed to build for it. Nothing is stopping
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: you in the app saying alert, Alert Jerry. You're only Matt,
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: You're only a single entry player. You cannot do this
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: that doesn't happen. You can do whatever you want. So
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: if you think you have something you need to save
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: money for these opportunities or don't put more money at all.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: I'm not telling you. Just risk more, just disperse differently,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: and that's all. Quick quick note here shout out the
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Obie Trice's real name, No Gimmicks says, do you think
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: it's possible that Scheffler is a massage parlor guy and
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: his wife finally figured it out? He looks very stressed lately,
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: like he needs one. I'm not going to answer the
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: actual breakdown of the craft, you know, era of massage
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: parlors and justin Tucker's et cetera. We've had enough Ravens
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: conversation for today with the Max Crosby stuff, but just
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: noting it the just the Scheffler conversation as a whole.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you want to go there yet,
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: but I think it's important to talk about a little
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: bit because you know, Scheffler even in his press conference
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: yesterday and I was making fun of her, but it's
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: morning for hashtag Team. Watched the tape the Brian Rolapp
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: press conference. I didn't watch it. I got the highlights
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: because other people are paid to get there and get it.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: I'll just catch up on it. But that's another topic too.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: But just of note, Scheffler said what I always say,
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: and I gave you the example pre show. But it's
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: like in Showdown if someone bogies the first hole and
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: then on the last six holes they birdy out the
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: streak six bird except people go nuts. They're excited, they
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: love it. If that same golfer starts off with six
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: birdies the streak, the excitement, it's all there, and then
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: makes part of the rest of the way and bogie's
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: the eighteenth people freak out. And it's literally the exact
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: same thing. The score is the same. It just feels
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: because they feel like I should have had that bogie
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: free round he lost it on the last. Scheffler did
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: say that yesterday. He said, Look, you guys are judging
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: me week to week on these twenty fourth and twelve
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: places you just saw. But what if we just flip
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: my five results around this season or mix them a
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: little bit? Would you be saying shit? He's not an
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: aggressive guy, but it's basically what he was saying. He's like,
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: you guys, I'm living shot to shot and you know
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: event you guys are looking at it from just what
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: happened last week type of thing. What's your thoughts on Scheffler? Yeah?
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: I agree there, And we're going to talk a bunch
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: about Scotty once we get into the wave stuff. So
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: do you want to bring up the screen share? Now
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: we'll talk through like what we're seeing with the with
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: the actual waves and then kind of go into how
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: we're gonna build throughout each Yeah, let's do that cool move.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: Good to go, You got it there, you got the
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: you got the floor?
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, So here's essentially what we're seeing, and
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: one thing I'll do is I'll show the fact that
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: like you're getting slightly different views from basically every single model,
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: And so number one, we do have the same type
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: of uncertainty that we've had a lot this year and
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: in terms of what exactly is the win going to do.
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: But what I want to talk through here for Thursday
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: and Friday especially is note how many different factors there
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: are that can potentially affect scoring. So the first one
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: obviously is win strength. And it looks like, you know,
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: the wind kind of builds throughout the day, maybe it
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: gets a little bit lighter later on, and then Friday
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: maybe it actually starts heavier and then gets lighter later on.
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: And so you can see a little bit of why
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: the field to this point seems to be preferring the
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: AMPM because there's a chance they avoid some of the
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: strongest wins early and then they also potentially get the
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: lightest wins late, so that obviously it would be would
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: be really nice for that wave. So there's that. Then
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: we also have precipitation. So let's say that you know,
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: this rain comes, but there are no weather delays, there's
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: no lightning, there's no electricity. Okay, now this Thursday morning,
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: they're playing the firmest golf course and now this is
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: a softer golf course, and Friday is a softer, more
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: receptive golf course. So maybe in that regard, the Thursday
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: AM the a MPM lineups are actually hurt a little
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: bit because they're the only group that had to face
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: the course at its firmst and with his most teeth.
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: In that regard, we also have the possibility, Okay, there
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: is lightning here, nobody has to play here, and so
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: now the pm AM avoids the heaviest wins. It's now
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: the AMPM who gets the heaviest wins, and they now
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: get to play a softer course throughout Friday, and then
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: the AMPM plays on Saturday in the calmest conditions, and
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: so like, there are so many options, so many potential runouts,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: and then the final variable, as we kind of alluded
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: to earlier, we know from experience year and from a
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: lot of players talking about it, like Corsil and Kisner,
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: that the north wind is the most difficult win on
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: this golf course. It's what's into the wind on seventeen,
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: it's into and from the right on eighteen, so not
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: just pushing into the guys, but also pushing towards the
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: water on the left, and we might see it like
• 25:17
  Speaker 3: really really late on Thursday. But most of this week
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: what we've seen is that there's no north wind on Thursday,
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: and then it might flip to a north wind on
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: Friday afternoon. And so one of the really weird outcomes
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: and potential runouts is the AMPM actually gets the lightest
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: winds of all on Friday afternoon, and in those lightest
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: winds they have the most difficult scoring conditions because it's
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: the only time in the first two days that they
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: get the north wind. And so all of this is
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: to say my view of the weather this week and
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: of scoring conditions and why I think it's worth playing
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: both sides of the wave advantages. We've got all of
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: these factors that could very severely affect scoring. We don't
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: know how it's going to affect scoring. We don't know
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: which factors are going to win out. But the likelihood
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: that they perfectly cancel each other out so that there's
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: no wave advantage just seems really really low. And the
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: possibility that some wave advantage and a fairly significant one
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: is going to exist, that probability seems pretty high to me,
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: And so I want to build lineups such that whatever
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: the outcome, I'm going to have at least one lineup
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: that is really really well positioned it benefits from whatever
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: advantage shows up.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think you know people asking about like
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: the scoring between the harder and the softer conditions, do
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: you want to elaborate on that.
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I think Michael Kim had a tweet that really
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: kind of talked about it well and talked about in
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: a way that's very specific to TPC sawgrass. One of
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: the most unique aspects of sawgress is the way demands
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: players shape shots in both directions in a way that
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: you just don't see in most courses. So most players
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: nowadays they have a shot shape that they love and
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: they stick to and like mathematically it's what's best for them,
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: because even if the whole looks like it shapes for
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: a draw, they're dispersion. Just hitting their shot, even if
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: it's a cut, is going to be so much more
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: narrow than trying to play the draw on some holes
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: and then a cut on the next. It's it's still
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: gonna be worth it to just stick to their shot.
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: But sawgress doesn't allow you to do that. Sawgress demands
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: you hit a draw on this shot and then the
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: approach has to go the other way. So like eleven,
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: for example, the par five, you've got to hit a
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: draw off the tee if you want to hit that
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: fair way and advance the ball to the point where
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: you can reach the green, and then you pretty much
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: have to hit a cut into that green. And they've
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: got a number of holes where that's the case. Eighteen's
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: another instance where you probably have to hit a draw
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: off the tee and then if the pin is on
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: the right, you have to hit a cut because if
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: you don't hit a cut, it's it's not just that
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: the pin's potentially on the right hand side, it's that
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: the green slopes like this right to left, and so
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: if you're drawing the ball in there, you can't possibly
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: stop it around the hole. It's going to take a
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: bounce and spin, you know, twenty twenty five feet from
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: the flag. So if you want to get the ball close,
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: you have to shape it a certain way. There are
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of holes like that. But the point that
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: Michael kim it is, if all of a sudden, this
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: course is soft, if we're not getting run out in
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: the fairway, if the ball's landing and sticking on the
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: greens instead of taking a bounce and then rolling. Now
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: throw all of that out the window. Now everyone can
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: just play their shot around the course. And so it's
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: a very dramatic effect in that way. And that's on
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: top of just the fact that you know a lot
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: of these greens are elevated. A lot of the short
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: game shots that you have come from like well below
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: the surface, and so that's another reason why it's harder
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: to stop the ball where you want on shots around
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: the green, and so around the green shots would just
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: become a lot easier if all of a sudden the
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: greens are soft. So basically every aspect of this golf
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: course gets easier in soft conditions, even more so than
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: most courses.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll get to the chalk lineups in a second
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: here just under two minutes, guys, just gonna answer a
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: lot of good ones from Jerry Matt today. So the
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: shot of the hymn says, think deep analysis is great, guys,
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: I will say the harder part is to know what
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: happens Saturday Sunday, because you could get the weather wave
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: right for the actual cut line, but maybe not the
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: weekend time. I mean, first off, it is extremely hard
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: to get six of sixes, especially in history at this
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: course Cognizant, those types of courses where it's really tricky,
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: and we've talked about that where Chock goes to die,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. But you do just want to
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: get guys to the weekend. Now, if you want to
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: take it a step further, you can look at it
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: and say, Okay, the weekend looks like it's gonna be
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: you know, a ton of around the green shots and
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: extra hard, and you know things are gonna you know,
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: we're gonna have more rolls off the green and things
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: like that. So I'm gonna build for a lineup I
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: think can make the cut, but then a lineup of
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: grinders over the weekend so that if I do get
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: six or six, now I get this again. That doesn't
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: change it either. You can have the best golfers in
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: the world. You can have Rory t ten going into
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: the weekend, and then Awd's for a back injury, so
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: it's like at Api of course that he crushes, So
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: anything can happen, but you gotta get them there first.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: One of the things though, that go into this wave
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: stacking and just not just for weather, like we said,
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: for other reasons as well. Is that getting them there
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: is just so important. So if you have a lineup,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: whether it's your single entry or a large part of
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: your portfolio, because you've overleveraged, not not over leaft, but
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: you've leveraged both wavestacks to get enough through. Do you
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: think people really wanted and Bond Lahiri back in the
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: year that it flipped. No, but those who were smart
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: enough to stack the other side of the wave got
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: him into their pool. And I'll use an NFL example
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: because people really relate to that usually quite well. I
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: remember it was one year I think it was Marvin
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Harrison before he was Marvin Harrison Junior. And now I
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: don't know if that even means anything because it's kind
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: of the after effect. It's not usually that great, but
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: just noting it, he had like a crazy game and
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: he was a run back in lineups of a stack
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: that was somewhat popular, and people are like, all this
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: game is all luck. Of course, how the hell did
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: anyone get to Marv Harrison Junior on the other side,
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: like in this way? But it's like it's it's right
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: in front of you the way they got to It
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: is the people that stacked the other side and were
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: smart enough to play a runback got to him, and
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: that's how he got into those lineups. And so really
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: that's what you're thinking about for stuff like this. You
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: have to think about this too when you're building your
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: single entry and you say, well, I know golf this
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: week and I know that Scotty is gonna be the
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: one he's back. I got this figured out. Okay, great,
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: that's the start, but there's five other spots you have
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: to fill out. And if you fill it out and
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: you like it, and we'll get there in a second,
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: you say, okay, I got my seven k, guys, I like,
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: got my six k guys. All these thoughts are good.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: Now think about the weekend. Let's say the weekend place harder.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: Would you It's again, I don't know, it's your decision
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: you're laying, but would you feel as good with those
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: warriors going to the weekend when there is gonna be
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: likely other six to six's that are more balanced, better grinders,
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: more anything could happen. I'm just saying Scotty winning isn't
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: always the be all end all in that situation. So
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: I would take all these factors into consideration when you're building,
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: whether it's a single entry, one lineup, whatever it's for,
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: or all the way through to your full portfolio up
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: to one hundred and fifty plus or three hundred if
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: you're playing multiple tournaments across uniques and whatever it looks like.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: So just little things like that are what I like
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: to think about more, Alex, I don't have anything else
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: you want to add there? If not, we can get
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: to the chalk build off of this back here for
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: us now whoops.
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the way we want to approach chalk
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: build this week is probably kind of talk about what
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: the what the chalk build looks like as long as
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: where about the field, kind of favoring the am PM stack.
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: And then when we talk about how we want to pivot,
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: we can, I think, do kind of two different conversations.
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: The first is how do we pivot within this stack
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: and the others how do we pivot when we just
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: go to the other stack.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one thing I'll say, because I know we just
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: have this big weather conversation and you know it's all
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: good and all, But like I said, there's a ton
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: to it this week. But unless you're seeing differently. Let
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: me just name some names here, Morikawa, Scottie, Ludwig, Sea Wou, Henley,
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: nap Fitzpatrick Ox, Shay Berger, McNeely, Fleetwood, Like all these
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: guys are the AM. That's all the guys I'm hearing
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: people talking about, Like here's who I don't hear people
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: talking about. I don't hear them talking that much about
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: Hideki got her up slight mention, you know, Bobby Mack
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: not as much or sorry I'm Shane Lowry not as much.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: Justin Rose barely at all, Burns not really at all. Griffin.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: We did this with Mayo. We all kept landing there
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: and saying no, thank you. Those guys are all in
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: the PM. Doesn't mean it will work in your favorite
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: I'm just noting it that like if one then not
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: the other. I don't even think the weather really is
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: what's bloating those guys up right now as much as
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: just like their projections and their value even before this
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: weather gets baked into it.
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: Fully, Yeah, there are really only two guys that I
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: think have a chance to be We're actually three guys
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: who have a chance to be really popular from the
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: opposite wave. Kim Young Minwu Lee and Ricky Fowler, Kim
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: and Minwu especially, and so I think for one thing,
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: like as I think, honestly, the worst build that you
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: can possibly do this week is a non stacked lineup
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: that has like the colins see Wu Henley type start,
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: maybe throw Fitzpatrick in there, and then also goes to
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: the chalk of Cam Young and minw Lee and now
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: you're getting chalk from both waves. You're not getting any
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: kind of wave advantage. That's that's the worst way to
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: approach this week for sure, which means that they'll finished
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: top ten.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: But uh, regardless, I will say I fully agree with you,
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: but I just want to note it, like that's kind
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: of the point too, where if you're doing it, I
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: think you said the key part in the former part
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: of your statement. It's like if you're not stacking, like
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: if you were, if you're doing that, like here's an example,
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: if you're playing I don't know Min Wu and Fowler,
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: yes they're both getting ownership Minmu specifically, like like pretty
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: much guarantee, but most people are playing those with some
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: of the other chalk. If you play let's say Rory
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: and Hideki with those two, well you can now get
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: away with it, and you're in that other wave and
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be different altogether and everything, and people say, oh,
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: you played that loser donkey chock Min Wu Lee. I did,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: but I played them with guys that you aren't getting.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: All those lineups have most of those lineups are not
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: are gonna have are gonna have at least one of
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: uh Morikawa see Wu Henley, other guys that are in
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: that range. Ludwig. We talked about Fitzpatrick, all those guys
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: above him, most are gonna have at least one, if
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: not multiples of those, So you don't have to wave
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: stack it. But to your point of trying to figure
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: it out that way, if you're gonna go that hard
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: on some of these higher owned plays, I think you
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: should do it strategically. Whether you believe that's correct or not,
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: it's up to you. I'm just saying that. To me.
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: I'm all for that, and I did it to win
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: my ticket to the Mega this week. When I did
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: the North Course South Course thing, all my guys ten
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: to fifteen percent, I had none of the fifteen percent
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: plus guys, but I had nobody below ten percent. But
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: I was in another wave where I was leaving out
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: all five of the popular guys that most were playing
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: two to three of in their lineups. That's how you
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: can get different but still be strategic.
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, a great completely. If you're gonna play the camera
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: min Wu Chuk, then just turn it into a stack
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: of that side. And then the other thing I'll say is,
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: I think if you if you are going to stack
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: the AMPM, I think Scotty's the move. I don't know
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: about you, but like when I'm looking at this and
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: I'm looking at our GPPs course, I think it's a
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: pretty clear trend that, like the worst CHPPECE course are
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: all of the guys in the balanced build of this
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: wave stack. It's Morikawa, It's see Wu, Hanley, Fitzpatrick, Oberg,
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: and you can. The thing I really like about the
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: idea of flipping to Scotty builds is number one, Scotty
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: has a really good GPP score. We're saying that he
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: is very much under owned. And the other thing is
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: when you use Scotty, you're forced into a very different
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: price range than if you don't use Scotty. And guess what,
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: there are a number of under owned guys positive GPP
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: scores in the range that you need to play a
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: bunch of guys from to fit Scotty who are in
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: that same wave. And so you can actually build like
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: entire lineups of underowned guys in that stack, even as
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: we are projecting that stack to be favored by the
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: field simply by going to Scotty because those guys down
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: the board just aren't as popular.
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I want to know what something important on
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: that too is. It's another example of tying everything we've
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: talked about together already in that you know, people say like, ah,
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: but you know, then I got to play all these loses.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: It's like if you get the six of six with
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: Scotty there. It's also highly likely that someone of either
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: first off Moricow and Seawoo types aren't needed, probably because
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Scotty is now and that's just gonna be a different build.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: Just again, you can build a Scotty Sea Wou lineup.
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: We did something yesterday with Scotty and Marikoo. They're very aggressive,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: but they can be done. I'm just saying my point
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: of the Fleetwood, Moricowa, Sea Woo's all get overlooked. They're
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: all super popular. You probably don't have Hovland or Henley
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: who are sort of the mid range in that nine
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: K range of ownership. I'm saying you may or may
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: not even have Ludwig at eighty seven hundred, and Cam
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: Young is from the other wave. So think about all
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: the chalk you've skipped over there, and you probably don't
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: put Scotty in just all the top owned guys in
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: the seven K range because typically the seven K seventy
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: nine hundred below chalk is kind of where it goes
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: to fail. But you can put yourself in a really
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: different range where most guys are eight percent or less
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: at the bottom, and you are playing Yatzie Scheffler like
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: I always talk about it. You're Scotty in the perfect
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: role is what you're looking for. But man, it could
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: really work in your favor if you do find the
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: six to six roll. You don't know if it's right
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: when it gets to Saturday morning or whenever the tournament starts,
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: if there's a delay for round three, but you'll be
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: feeling really good having a six of six that probably
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: faded some land mines or guys that just are sucking
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: completely and maybe just scraping through and that sort of stuff,
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: and Scotty's leading and you're in really good shape that way,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: putting yourself in that position. So I like that topic
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: to sort of tie back everything that we talked about
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: here perfectly. So where do you want to go next
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: with this chalk bial? What else are you seeing? Three sevens?
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think something like that. I do think in
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: terms of like the low sevens. I think the chalk,
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: especially from the AMPM wave, we've got Noorrin and Berger,
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: we are much higher on than industry from an ownership perspective.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: And then I also think like way down the board,
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: we could see Castillo get get pushed up a little
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: bit as well, given how well he has played and
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: the fact that he's in that wave. So it's it's
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: not like people are locked into a specific type of build.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: I think the big thing is it seems like people
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: are gonna try and jam in as many guys as
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: possible out of the Oberg Fitzpatrick, Henley, Kim Morikawa kind
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: of grouping, and maybe you throw Hovelind and Tommy and
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: even Bobby Mack into that group as well.
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I gotta add something there too, because this is,
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: you know, taken directly from your playbook. I hit it
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: onto the Mail Show yesterday. But I know not everybody
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: catches every show, so just to note it again here,
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: but the Castillo point is a great example. He's gonna
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: pop off the page in projections at sixty two hundred
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: down Low And if people are listening to this, just said,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: get Scotty and the low guys in. And then you
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: guys also said, or we're saying it right now, that
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: Castillo is not gonna be like super Chalk. He's just
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: gonna be much more owned than most the six K players.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: A lot will will just say, well, that means it's
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: no problem then, and I'm not s saying don't do it.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: There's tons of ways to get different in the other
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: four spots with your entire construction all of that. Just remember,
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: though this is directly from Alex's playbook, that Castillo might
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: only be six percent, which is high for a six K,
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: but not high overall eighty four percent of their ninety
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: four percent of the field. Sorry, not playing them anywhere,
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: but think about what his percentage is going to be
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: in Scotty Scheffler lineups. Not not many people are going
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: to go to Castillo and not get to Scotty. It's
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: going to be to make Scotty work. So at least
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: something to think about from that perspective, right, So just
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: just noting.
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: It there, Yeah, exactly, said another way, Castillo might be like,
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: we've got him projected at nine percent in single entries,
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: nine percent overall, but he might be twenty percent in
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: Scotty lineup. So twenty percent of the Scotty Scheffler lineups
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: will contain Castilio. So if you're if you're saying like, oh,
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: I've got him and he's you know, he's a separator
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: for me in in my Scottie lineup, No, he's probably not.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: If if you're right about Scotty and you're right about Castillio,
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: you still have to be you know, ninety percent or
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: eighty percent of the other Scotty lineups.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and again there's ways to do it if if
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: you got another two six k guys in there that
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: are unowned, as ways to chop into it where most
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: are deciding between them and all like, there's definitely way
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: things that you can do differently that then move you
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: off of a seven K range altogether, because most Scotty
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: lineups would have at least one seven K. There is
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: stuff you can do it's just gonna be more aggressive,
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: and then think about how's that gonna hold up over
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: a full week, four day event, or I should say
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: a whole week event of the players itself. This is
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: another good question. My guy Matthew Banister says, how would
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: you play Scotty in multiple different single entry contests? And
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: I'm curious your take. I've got some thoughts, but like,
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: let's say you had three single entries and you were
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: gonna play three unique single entries, but you wanted to
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: commit to Scotty, so you're at least gonna pick a
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: lane and say I'm in on Scotty. Even if you're
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: in on the a MPM with Scotty, what would your
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: thoughts be on how to play them across different contests?
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: If being unique with it?
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: Well, in the it's tough because I think for I'll
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: just say, like the way that I approach single entry
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: when I'm when I'm running single entry, i don't care
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: how many single entry contests I'm in, I'm gonna run
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: the same lineup across them. I think if you if
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: you are running, if you're in three different single entry
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: contests and you are playing three different lineups, you're in
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: single entries, but you're playing three entry max there right
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: Like it's so I think I would try to do
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: the same thing that we we've often talked about with
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: three entry, which is you can play it like a
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: single untry where you just you find the part of
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: your lineup that you think is the strongest. So maybe
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: it's like a Scotty and thor Bjornsen core or something
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: like that, and then you differentiate around that or you
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: build in. I think this week is one where you
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: want the inverse correlation between the lineup, so you want
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: an early stack, a late stack, and then maybe you
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: do whatever you want with the with the third lineup.
• 42:54
  Speaker 3: But so if like if you're committed to Scotty, then
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: I think what I would do is say, don't play
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: him in all three. Play one Scotti that is a
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: full a m PM stack, Play a second Land if
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: it doesn't have Scotty, that's a full pm AM stack.
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: And then your third one, maybe you do Scotty and
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: a pm AM, or maybe you just say I'm gonna
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: choose all the all the plays that I think are
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: the are the best plays this week, something like that,
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: and and maybe mix and match that's not the way
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: that I would do it. But if you're if you're
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: dead set on like building around Scotty, I think that's
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: that's the way to do it. But for me, Scotty
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: is simply an answer of how do I play the
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: am PM stack in the best way possible, and outside
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: of that, I'm not gonna play him.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: That's why I think you said it best early. Again,
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: we can only ask the questions as they're presented, and
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: every player is different and they have different risk adversity.
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: Like you know, some people want to be all in
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: on Scotty, some say I want to play him, and
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: some some wanta wavestack with him, some don't. So just
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: in general, like we'll talk about from our perspective, I think,
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: like you're saying it's Scotty, I like Alex's thoughts of
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: going in on the am wave because of that, And
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: if you're if you feel really good about two to
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: three guys that fit those Scotti lineups, I would build
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: it almost as a core and maybe switch your three
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: value plays in two of them, and then in the
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: last one make decisions based off of that. But I
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: would kind of core up at the beginning. I just
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't go all in on three guys and
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: all of them even in the third one. Let's say
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: if you have three single entries, I might be on
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: like Scotty with five opposite side and be like, I'm
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: gonna run a five to one where it's like it's
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: just Scotty from the am that gets through because he's Scotty,
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: he's the best. He comes back around, but nobody's doing
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: this and look at it from that perspective. So again,
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: there's these are all the stuff that we talk about.
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: I love Ryan's You'll bring it up for him, but
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: it's like, these are all things. There's just so many
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: answers to that. It really is a lot of specifics
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: to how you feel about it, what you notice with
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: the entire lineup, yourself, how you feel if the ownership
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: numbers are right, wrong or indifferent on or off. Like,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: it's all gonna be your own personality and your own
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: spin on what you see. If you have a lane, though,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: like we talk about on this show, you should go
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: with that. So there's nothing where I'm like, oh, it's
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: too low, oh to besides the obvious of like what
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: Alex said earlier, I'm not playing the five or six
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: highest doone guys in a lineup together in a large
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: field tournament just to say, hopefully I make some cash.
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: That's not what I'm doing. I'm playing to win. It's
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: a million to first, two hundred to second, one hundred
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: to third. Even in the Mega it's a million to
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: first and one hundred to second. In the twenty five dollars.
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: We're playing to win. It's ship at Nation, I mean
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: Alex place to win. We're talking about leverage lane. It's
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: like you're trying to win the tournament. So we're not
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: just trying to ease into a min cash here. So
• 45:29
  Speaker 2: just a couple thoughts on that as well, anything else
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: on the chalk build that you want to go through.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: I think obviously we talked a lot about it, but
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: I do think like the Morikawa Sea Wu Cam Young
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: Min Wu, like somewhere in that realm of like that
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: type of lineup lands in a lot of places this week.
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: I think the only place to go from there is
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: like among these really chalky guys. And let's say we're
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: talking about like, okay, we've made the decision already to
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: build the AMPM stack, which of the chalky guys are
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: you most likely to play, so Marikawa, Seewoo, Kim, Henley, Fitzpatrick, Oberg.
• 46:05
  Speaker 3: We can even throw in Cam Young and Mimuallee even
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: though they're in the opposite way. So maybe the answer
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: is just I'm more likely to play those guys because
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: I'm more likely to flip the build and sack the
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: other side. Or let's see the other two down down
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: lower or Noren and Berger.
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: I think Scotty and Morikawa up top are both really good.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: Marcaw is not gonna reflect as good because ninety eight hundred,
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: it's just gonna look so bad if you look at it.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: But to me, it's all how you build with him,
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: and I think like it's he's the guy that people like.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: Of course chalk Morikawa got there and it does suck,
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: And I'm not saying I'll use him in my MEGA
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: because of that. Like there's definitely some thoughts there, But
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: in general, I think if I was comparing like Morikawa,
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: I don't know more Kawa. Let's do see Wu and Henley.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: I think I prefer like Morikawa up up top or
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: Henley down low, But it's Scotty over all those guys
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: at the top and down low there's almost nobody that
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: you're gonna be like, oh, you gotta play him or
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: what it's we talked but earlier the medium projection not
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: mattering as much anyway already. But also just like it's
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: a lot of them are just getting completely pushed up
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: because of like a certain stat or value or something,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: and there's you know, in some cases these price ranges
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: have seven or eight guys within the same one hundred
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: dollars radius, So it's there's so many guys that can
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: beat them there, and there's so many other names that
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: you would not be surprised that they pop up. So
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: I'm ignoring it much more down low than I am
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: up top, where I'm consciously thinking about it.
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly, I wasn't even like even grouping Scotty in
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: with the Chockey guys, just because that build is going
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: to be so much more contrarian than the non Scotty build.
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: But I agree, I think Scotty's the best up there,
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: and I would say I prefer Henley to Morikawa just
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: because you're getting eight hundred dollars in savings and I
• 47:45
  Speaker 3: view them very similar. So honestly, this kind of answers
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: the last question two of like how much ownership is
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: too much ownership? Well, I don't really think of it
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: that way. I think of, you know, almost like assigning
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: roles to the players in my lineup. Is this guy
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: in my lineup because he's a high probability play and
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: preserve any advantage that I create for myself, or is
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: this guy one of the separators who's creating that advantage
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: for me? And in both instances, Marikawa and Henley have
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: to fit that second build there the first one they're
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: they're preserving any advantage that I gat that I gain elsewhere,
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: and so I don't really care that, you know, they're
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: over thirty percent projected ownership in our in our single
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: entry stuff and our high stake stuff right now. They're
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: just high probability plays, and so I like both of them,
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: but I prefer Henley for the eight hundred dollars in savings,
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: And honestly, we have them projected really similarly anyway, And
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: then I don't think I would play any of the
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: chalkway down the board. Actually two guys that we kind
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: of gloss three guys that we kind of kind of
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: glossed over in terms of who is in the chalk
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: build in this stack is actually the mid to upper
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: seven K range with Harris English, Jake Knapp, Akha Battia,
• 48:55
  Speaker 3: and of that group, I think Jake Knapp is the
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: one that I'm most likely to play down lower. I'm
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: gonna get contrarian if I'm doing that stack.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I like Harris English just a little
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: bit more than Jake Knapp there as an example, but
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: they're both gonna be very similar. I think when things
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: shake out, it's all what you like. But I think
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: you said a key point there too, And I know
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: you guys have it again with GVP scores at FTN
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: and you can find this stuff. Same with the stone
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: at Shipping Nation where you can check it out with
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: the optimals and stuff. It's like what I said earlier
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: of like when a golfer's nineteen percent to be optimal
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: or twenty two percent to be optimal and they're coming
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: in at twenty eight, it's like, not really that crazy.
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: It's like they're coming in a little bit over the top,
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: but they are likely to be that. It's some people
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: see a four percent optimal golfer and they're like, oh,
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: he's coming in at two percent, And I'm getting two
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: percent positive leverage, the other guy's negative leverage would the
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: other guy's way more likely to hit. It's just you know,
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: the numbers show that, so you got to you still
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: you don't want to be building lineups with just six
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: of the best leverage plays on the site. Now, if
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: you were doing it, golf would be the place to
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: do it. And it's individual and you can get away
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: with it more. But it's the same reason people make
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: fun in the NFL and they say, like, oh, that
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: guy want to Millie, his line was way over leveraged,
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: still gets to keep the million bucks. Good for him.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: It's just saying in other sports basketball prime example, like
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: in basketball, you don't want eight guys under ten percent. Oh,
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: it's like it's just so unlikely to happen. Those other
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: guys are going to be the spot to go to.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: So I think that's important.
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's the whole conversation of it's not just
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: who we play, it's who we choose not to play.
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: And and you need your guys to not just play well,
• 50:27
  Speaker 3: but also to outperform the popular guys that you don't have.
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: And so if if you are fading too many high
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: probability guys, the chances are that one of them is
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: going to you know, outperform your lower probability plays, and
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: so that that's why the balance between the two is
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: the is the better way to go and.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: If it helps you to not be angry or frustrated
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: or mad about I know everyone just you know, gets
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: so pissed and tilts and does all the stuff, it's
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: good good for them, Like I get it. But it's
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: like if you're on a Scottie lineup and that was
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: your conviction and all of a sudden, let's say, guys
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: you couldn't get in there. Let's say it's you know,
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Mori Kaala, Henley Seawou lineups that are needed, like you
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: were just never getting on that path. You weren't on
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: that path like you were on the Scotti path. So like, yeah,
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: those guys got there, and they were the other high
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: probability options up top. It's just they all happened to
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: get there and Scotty didn't. So like you should have
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: to sort of live with that as well, think about
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: what can happen and not be as stressed by that.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: It's just affecting and taking mental energy from your showdown
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: lineups or thoughts you need to put it in now
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: because you're you're not doing well on the main sleet
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: or something like that.
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: And last point on this, I think this also illustrates
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: why wavestacking can be so advantageous, because what's more likely
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: that in a lineup where you fade all of Obert Fitzpatrick, Henley, Seawoo, Kim,
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: Colin Morikawa, what's more likely that all of them fail
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: because independently they just play poorly, or they all happen
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: to be in a wave that ends up being tougher conditions.
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: That's one surprising thing, but now all of them have
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: this you know, equal uphill battle to actually get themselves
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: in contention. Obviously, the latter is more likely. They're more
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: likely to all fail together because they ended up in
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: the more difficult wave. Even if we were surprised that
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: that's the more difficult wave. Then all in, all of
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: them independently playing poorly when they're such good golfers.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: Agreed, Yep, Well said, let's talk a little bit more
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: just about how to leverage these chalk builds. This week
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: we talked some on like you mentioned the GPP scores
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: being able to look at sort of different waves and
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: stacking them in full and others? Is there other ways
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: that you're seeing here, Like we talked about some of
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: like different ways you can use guys at certain price
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: points and how you can put them together and not
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: be on five of the chalkiest guys from the other
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: wave as an example, But any other ways that are
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: standing out to you early on just from the common
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: build versus what you can do to leverage that in
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: single entry.
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: No, I mean it's pretty simple. I think there are
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: two pass this week. The first is to embrace the
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: AMPM stack. But then instead of going to that collection
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: of guys that we just mentioned, say okay, well what
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: happens if this is the Scottie week? And now I
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: want the you know, the the more studs and duds build,
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: and so you can get away with you know, Henley
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: and Oberg and Fitzpatrick playing well if you have Scottie
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: who wins, and you have a couple you know, cheaper
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: guys who also perform really well, and so just deviating
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: from a pure structure standpoint within that wavestack with the
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: Scottie build, or you just totally flip the build and
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: you say what happens if the other wave ends up,
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: the advantageous won in and to me, that as we
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: just talked about, that is the smarter route and the
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: higher probability route because it makes it so much easier
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: for all of Oberg Fitzpatrick Henley, Seawoo Kim and Colin
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: Morikawa to either fail or just underwhelm together.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: All right, do you want to talk one and done
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: for a minute? Get you got thoughts on that for
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: this week? Obviously go back to a this is the
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: big boy event, that's what everybody waits for. But we
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: obviously had signature events already that have big prize pools
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: like this, so we've had enough conversation I think in
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: the past around like those in segment tournaments and things
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: like that. I know it changes up, but just in general,
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: we're gonna keep it to a main focus. Our guy
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: sheets will be on at Shipping Nation later today breaking
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: down his one and done thoughts for the Splash sports
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: and the and the mail stuff and all that. But
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: what's your thoughts on one and done this week? How
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: you might attack it? Yeah?
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: Three main thoughts here. The first is obviously like know
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: the position you're in and know the format that you're
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: in and the pool and the format that your pool uses,
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: because some of them, you know, payout in segments, some
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: of them don't. And so if you're near the top
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: and and you know, on the verge of a really
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: nice first segment payout, then play Scottier, play Colin, you know,
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: play one of the best options that you possibly can.
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: And if you're not, then maybe save the big guns
• 54:45
  Speaker 3: and try to win one of the later segments. You're
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: gonna end up playing all the same guys anyway. The
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: one the one thing that I'll kind of add on
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: to that though, is this is the highest purse. This is, uh,
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: you know, a win here is more value able to
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: win anywhere else. And we also have a very very
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: strong course fit model and a very unique course fit
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: this week where distance just doesn't matter as much as
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: it does in most golf courses on the PGA Tour.
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: Accuracy matters a ton, iron play matters a ton, and
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: then both on and around the green play is really
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: predictive here as well. So uh, it's it's one where
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: guys like Morikawa and Henley are going to project better
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: here than they do elsewhere. Guys like Scotti, I mean
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: Scotty Scheffler is the ultimate fit for this golf course. Yes,
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: he's longer this year and and he's actually been really
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: really good in that department, But like, you just can't
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: compete with Scotty from an accuracy approach, short game and
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: putting standpoint, there's there's nobody else like him. And and
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: the thing about this course fit model is essentially what
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: it does is it takes the typical skill gap between
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: good and great players and widens it because so much
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: is so predictive here and so the best player projects
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: even further ahead of the rest of the field here
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: than most courses. So it's it's obviously a really good
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: place to play Scotty if you've got him. It's just
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: one of those weeks where like that you don't I
• 56:06
  Speaker 3: almost think you don't need a ton of strategy. You
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: just play play your favorite guy. And the one thing
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: I'll say there is, like we do know ownership has
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: really really really reflected course fit so far this season
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: in the one and done pools, and so maybe trying
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: to find a guy who's long and straight, and especially
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: like if you're using the Strokeskin driving accuracy that we
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: have at FTN, there are a couple guys who are long,
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: but they actually are some of the most accurate guys
• 56:34
  Speaker 3: on tour as well, and so they are probably going
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: to be underrated by the field and maybe you get
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: an ownership discount that way.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that. I think the other thing a
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: lot of people talked about was the ry stuff. I know,
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: we didn't go heavy into it, and you know, for
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: anybody who's new to this show, I mean, as there's
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: tons of picks and play shows breaking it all down,
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: we built lineups yesterday. You can go back and watch
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: it on the Male Media Network, myself, Alex and Mayo
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: going through and actually putting together the lineups. So you
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: if you want to see that, going through the plays
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: and stuff. But you know, just noting from the perspective,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: like the Rory situation this week. That is part of
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: where the Marklea Fleetwood and Scotty stuff comes from. What
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: we've already hit on quite heavily here, but just noting it.
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: You know, some people were asking, like what about using
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: Rory in one and done where most people shy away.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: It's like a way that you could still have access
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: to him because of the late tea time, the late
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: w D last week. I'm not even sure if he'll
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: get into a practice round today or not yet. So
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: all these different factors, what's your thoughts on using Rory
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: in a one and done just because of the back specifically.
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: It's weird because I don't know how in tune is
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: the general public with the fact that Rory's not getting
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: a practice round or do they just see his name
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: in the field and they go click it right, And
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: so we might not see the ownership discount that we're
• 57:49
  Speaker 3: expecting to see in want and done pools, particularly now,
• 57:54
  Speaker 3: It'll probably be reflected in like the Mayo Cup. But
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: if you're in a just a homely type one and done,
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: I don't think you're gonna get as much of an
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: ownership discount as you're expecting on Rory, So I wouldn't
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: be interested there. Maybe it's a better play in the
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: in the Mayo Cup, but again, like I just I
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: think it's more of a personal decision, and it's it's
• 58:15
  Speaker 3: based on how you're doing so far this season, whether
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: you're in a segment race or not, And like my
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: personal thought is I'm gonna be able to find a
• 58:23
  Speaker 3: better spot to play Rory in a segment where I'm
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: doing well and have a chance to actually win, and
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: that's when I want to want to use him. And
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: it's just it seems like an unnecessary risk to play
• 58:34
  Speaker 3: Rory who might be hurt right now in one and done,
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: when I know I can play other elite players at
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: low ownership for the one and done contest.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the betting breakdown. You know, we talked touched on
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: our little yesterday. I know, UH said, you know you're you're,
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: you're just you're never wrong, just early and Nikolai Hogard
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: came up. I did remember to hit it this time
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: with you guys. I got one forty to one there
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: with the three three places each way? Do you do
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: you have any other thoughts from a betting perspective this
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: week or ways you can use certain things to your
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: advantage for anybody playing the pick COM's just different. Usually
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: you got something from a different angle. What's your thoughts
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: on betting this week?
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go pick them again because I'm not, honestly like,
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: I'm not super into any of the outrights that I
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: posted this week. I've got three, but they all ended
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: up in the wrong wave too, So the one I
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: might still add is Jake Nap if I've got to
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: look at what his number is now, but if it
• 59:25
  Speaker 3: drifts at all, I'm gonna be interested in Jake Napp
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: in the quote unquote good wave. But and this is
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: an awesome week for Underdog and for all of pick them.
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: I will say, by the way, this is a really
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: good time to get in on my discord. You can
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: use promo code leverage ten percent off forever. We've hit
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: nineteen of the last twenty NBA picks, literally nineteen of
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: last twenty. It's been winning night after winning night, so
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: much fun of late, and hopefully we can keep that going.
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: And PGA's been really good as well. And I think
• 59:53
  Speaker 3: from an Underdog standpoint, this week PGA is going to
• 59:56
  Speaker 3: be awesome because the shifting wins and the shifting direction
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 3: can be so incredibly advantageous for those picks like whole
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: sixteen through eighteen strokes, something we did this past week
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: at the API with a lot of success and almost
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: had a ton of success, almost went six for six
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: there on whole sixteen for eighteen strokes. That type of
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: opportunity is going to be there a lot this week,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: and so I can't wait to just be firing those
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 3: day after day.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been in the discord the blick scored, as
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: they like to call it. I'm and checking it out,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: so crushing it on the NBA side, you know side note,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: we're at the end of the show. We're gonna pick
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: our lane. Did did you follow the BAM stuff last night? Yes?
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: It was ridiculous.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: It was insane. I don't care they can say old
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: man Yell's at cloud. It's not even like a Kobe
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: fan thing or nothing like that. Is just whatever. It
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: was thirty points and we're literally just fouling on Chris
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: to get this record. I don't know. Maybe it's just
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: normal and it's all good. I just thought that was
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: nuts for me, I said this morning. NBA's got to
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: be down so bad with load management, last minute scratches.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: You got the stat padding, the team's tanking, all the
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: freaking networks you got to buy into just to be
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: able to have the blackouts, the ability to even watch
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: sports like it's tough enough as it is in all
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: the games, and kids going to watch a star play
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: and he doesn't show up even like all these different things.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: But what were your.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: Thoughts, Well, yeah, it was really funny too, because up
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: until like a week ago, one of the ways that
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: we were making a lot of money over an underdog
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 3: was with free throw alts. So we were taking alt
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 3: overs that were just really high multipliers, higher than they
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: should have been. And Ban was one of our favorite ones,
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: and he was very successful for us, but we never
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: gotten him at forty three free throws or whatever the
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: hell thirty six free throws that it was last night,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: So missed down on that, but I thought JJ Reddick
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: said it really well. He was like I saw that.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: I was told that he was at seventy seven points.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: So I turned on the game and that was a
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: different kind of basketball. It was really really ugly down
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 3: the stretch. The thing that I really hated wasn't Washington
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: continuing to foul because they were just defending him hard
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: and he was baiting him into fouls, but it was
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: Miami intentionally fouling late to get possessions back, to get
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: the possession of the ball back quicker like that was
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 3: just really really gross. So I did not like at
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: the end of the that it was look good for Bam.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: He played a phenomenal game. I just thought the last
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: few minutes were really gimmicky and not a very good
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: basketball product.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it was like more Spolster just standing
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: on the sidelines the way he does too. It's kind
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: of just annoyed me. But whatever. It's like I said,
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: old Manuel's at cloud I get it good for him
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: And eighty three points is insane. Miss seven free throws
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: and still got that. So pretty wild to just see
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: that stuff happen. Obviously, the Crosby stuff was another thing
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: that came up last night. And then you know, that's
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: kind of interesting, But let's get to our lanes. Let's
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 2: end this thing out, Alex, And it was a good,
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: good breakdown going through it all with you. But what's
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: gonna be your lane for the week.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: So I've got two and the first one is just
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: kind of a broad approach, and that is, you know,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: I obviously everyone knows I'm a single entry guy, which
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: to me means I most I'm building one line up
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: and putting that in all the contests that I'm in.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: But this week, part one of my lane is to
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: actually go to three entry so that I can really
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: take advantage of the uncertainty that I see in the weather.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: So regardless of how the wave advantages play out, I'm
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: going to have a lineup that is well suited for
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: it and is going to benefit from that wave advantage
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: showing up. And then part two of that is I'm
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 3: actually going to favor the PMAM wave, so I'll probably
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: have two of those stacks, one of the AMPM. And
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 3: essentially this is kind of coming from what I talked
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: about earlier, which is I'm looking not to say, okay,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 3: which is a better bet between the AMPM or the PMAM,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 3: it's which players look like the best plays and then
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: how do I turn those plays into the best lineup.
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: And when I'm looking at our GPP scores over at FTN,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: the guys who are the most unknown, like Xander Schoffley,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: Justin Roe, Sam Burns, these guys are in the pm
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: AM wave. So I want to build around that kind
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: of core and then give myself multiple chances to have
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: the right combination of those guys in my three entry.
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 3: So part one and part two of the leverage lane there.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, mine's gonna be pretty similar, but it shouldn't surprise anybody.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: But you know this this week for sure, if you're
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: not doing it like I said, people can complain all
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: they want, but I'm building in sets, so I'm gonna
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: be playing the one to fifty max. I'll probably do
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: like sixty sixty thirty or something like along those lines
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: and just go after it. I might adjust it based
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: on sort of your point. I might look at it harder.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: But one thing I am kind of starting to favor
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: now is this PMAM. So if it was adding a
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: secondary component to it, like it could end up being
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: more that like a you know, a seventy fifty and
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: leave it and do it that way or seventy five
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: to forty five or something, only because I really like
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: it from the perspective of like I said, I think
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: like the quote unquote good wave stuff your weather breakdown earlier. Really,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: I just I people always said this moment, but like
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: I listen to what others saying, it kind of like
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: sparks differently in my brain and I guess. But like
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: for me, the way you said it, you weren't even
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: selling the PMAM, but it sold me more on the PMA.
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: Like it's like if there's no delay, it's avoiding the
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: gusts and stuff still, but maybe it's more about the
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: AM On Friday, what if the north wind Hits Friday afternoon. Again,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: just thinking about those guys sitting on the tee and
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: laughing about it. The fact that all of the AM guys,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: like I said, when you sort by just the chalk
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: currently and you've got Mari Kawa, Scheffler, Ludwig Sea Wu,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: Henley Nap, all these guys, Batia, Fitzpatrick Berger, like you
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: name them all, they're all in that AM. So it's
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: like I can just naturally avoid that, and then there's
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: still some really good options in that range. I like Xander.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: I think if Decki gets hot, we know he's actually
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: had great rounds. Remember the year he won the players
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: in round one and then it got shut down because
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: of COVID. It was like that that was another one.
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: So it's like there's other guys that you can go to.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: There's guys in both ranges, like we said, But I
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: think I am just leaning that way a slight bit
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: more based on our conversation around it today and just
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: all those factors lead to me feeling a little bit
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: better about it. And then yesterday I gave a nod
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: to our guy Dak sixteen sixteen been around forever, awesome,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: dude won the MILLI the year that Mayo and I
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: were wrong on the players. He had the opposite side
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: of that, Wave and he hit me up last night
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: and said he appreciated the shout out, so shout out
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: to him. But maybe it's it's that way and that's
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: sort of a sign as well line of thinking of like, oh, yeah,
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: that was something that you could do here, and to
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: me it makes a little bit of sense just on
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: all the other factors involved. So Wave splits pm AM
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: favoring that. That's gonna be my my spot here for now.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: Man, that COVID year, My worst guy after round one
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: was four under that year, so that would have been
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: that would have been going for them to play out,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: I think. But but yeah, I really like that thought.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: There was a crazy thing. Actually I have the DM
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: somewhere saved and just the screenshot of it. But there
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: was a guy leading the million maker. The guy leading
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: the millionmaker, obviously there was somebody leaving him. So the
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 2: guy leading the millimaker after day one was trying to
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: sell his lineup, right, like looking for a market for it. Now,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: first of all, only one round in. I get it.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: I understand where he's coming from. But just to noted
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: it was kind of interesting. But I think there was
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: a rule. I don't want to get this wrong, but
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: i'll just say whatever I think is, I don't care,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: but I think it was like if it's if round
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: two started, it was considered action or something like. I
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: forget the exact wording on it, but it was considered
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: like action where they would pay out based on the tournament,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: Like it went to round two, therefore, it's gonna be
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: paid out based on the current standings. So he was
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: kind of hoping that it just you know, tease off
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: for round two or whatever. But obviously with it getting canceled,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: getting nothing, So I'm sure he's got a story that
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: he'll live to tell forever with that one. But yeah,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: one round is not the end of a tournament. Besides,
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: whatever Discord tells you is after the first bird he's
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: made and that person's winning. But yeah, this was one
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: of those spots again, So just another fond memory of
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: the players. I'm hoping this year the fondest memory of
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: them all a million maker win could be the way
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: I got that mega ticket this week that I'm quite
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: excited about. Excellent, right me, man, Let let people know
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: where they can find you. I know you mentioned the
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: discord earlier. We talked to FTN all that but on
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: on X and then everything you got going on this
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: week besides just this.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, if I'm me at alex one over on Twitter,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 3: you can find links to my discord there in the bio,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: and you can find links to FTN as well. And
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 3: uh and I can't remember if I already mentioned it
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: on this show. I mentioned it yesterday with Pat. But
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: we're debuting our contestims this week for PGA. We really
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: spent a lot of time on it to make sure
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: that we could incorporate things like wave advantage, uncertainties and
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: creating different different scenarios there. So all of that's going
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 3: to be captured and debuting High Stakes Ownership this week.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 3: So if you're like Tambo and you're in that four
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: four four four, check out the new high stakes ownership.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: I've been fine tuning that for weeks. Our single entry
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: ownership has kind of led the industry for a while now,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: and hopefully the high stake stuff can do the same.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's awesome, man, lots of good stuff going on.
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: My man, Timmy Dubbs. I gotta say, if anyone else
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: is out there talking about wavestacking, and they're just playing
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: like a four to two or a three like, they're
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: not stacked, they're just playing. They're building lineup. So when
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: we're talking about that, that's six. O's right, we're talking
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: about six guys in the am. Otherwise we're explaining it.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: At least we are of saying like, Okay, I'm gonna
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: go Scottie and five guys from the other wave. Well
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: that's that's when it's a five to one. But yeah,
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: other than that, when we're talking about wavestacking, I'm talking
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: about all the way six we've got.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: We've got sixty plus guys to choose from in each wave.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: It's not difficult to find six that you like.
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: That's right. And that's another thing too, if you're doing it.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: That's again I always, you know, my soapbox on this
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: topic is like when people are saying, well, but I
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: only play single Lantry, Well, you're gonna find a lot.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: But like Alex said, it's not as correlated as you'd like.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: Scotty and who's it now? Let me just see here
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: real quick. Where is the groups? Like, let's look where
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: Scotty Scotty Scotty Scotty, who's he with tomorrow? Is he
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: with Fleetwood? Yeah, Scotty Fleetwood exact same group. Scotty could
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: make four birdies and Fleetwood could make four bogies, same group,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: same tea time, same wave. There's no correlation on that
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: side of things on how good the player plays within it.
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: So if you know when people are talking about all
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna play that I'm a single entry player, that's fine.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: You build your standard lane, you're building your AMPM whatever, whatever.
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, if you actually thought there was a
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: wave advantage specifically even one way that you think it's
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: gonna be like if you say, I don't care what
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: anybody says, I'm going with the last thoughts, Tambo and
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: Alex mentioned that I'll just risk it and go pm AM. Great,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: But you should play a ton of lineups because there
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: now you've just shrunk your pool down to sixtyish guys
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: and you are able to build tons of lineups because
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: it's probably thirty to forty that you kind of want
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: to put in within there. Well, you're in a great
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: spot to play anywhere from twenty to one hundred and
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: fifty lineups now because you have that you just have
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: to disperse your money differently. Maybe that's the minimax instead
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: of the higher stuff. Maybe that's the five dollar instead
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: of the twenty five dollars worth a million. I guess
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: you'd be pretty excited about one hundred grand still, right,
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: So just singing about it. From that perspective, I think,
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: if you feel like you've got an angle of attack,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: actually attack it, and don't just say you did because
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: oh I play at the weather angle. But of course
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: I got two guys wrong. How many lineups did you play?
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: What? All?
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: Right? Well, you thought you had an angle, you wanted
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: to attack it, but you only attacked it in one line.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: And it's not you, my man Timothy there. I work
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: with tim and he's awesome dude. But I'm saying like,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: just for people in general, when they're talking about it,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: it's like they act like they have their forced into way.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: Like I said, the app is not jumping off the
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: page to you to say hey, you're not allowed to
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: do that. You can do whatever you want, but we
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: recommend you stick within your means and contest selection and
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: bankro management are part of that as well.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: So the only thing I'll add on top of that, is.
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: I think it also matters how many people you're competing with,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 3: because while adding more lineups gives you more opportunities, if
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 3: you're playing against more people, you also have to be
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: more perfect. And so you know, as someone myself who
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 3: I don't have many lineups, like, I'm still just doing
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: three entry, but if you look at the contests that
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: I'm in, I'm still in contests that fit my typical strategy.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 3: I'm not trying to go beat two thousand people with
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: my three lineups. You know, I picked the one hundred
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: dollars fifty five max for example, where I'm going up
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: against like two hundred and fifty nine people total or
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: something like that. So you can control both ways. You
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 3: can you can add how many quote unquote bullets that
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 3: you have, but if you have to beat more people,
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 3: you have to be more perfect, or you can control
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 3: how many people you have to beat, and then you
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: have to be less perfect, and so kind of two
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 3: ways of doing the same sort of thing.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think if you have more money to play,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: I think it's always nice too that if you can
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: go up to like something that can pay more on
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: top of combining all that stuff. But again teach the
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: rown with their bankroll. We always want to be where
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: you can sort of extrapolate it up or down. We
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: recognize not everybody has, you know, the bankroll to sack
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: can go play a five fifty five or a one
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: fifty five max or whatever else that might be so awesome.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: Show man, I love this. It's it's not a I
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: think Rollapps said it good today, so I wanted the
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: highlights there. I said, it's not a It's not up
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: to us to decide if this is a major. It's
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: up to you guys, but we just want the events
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: to be this type of tier. Everybody should be excited
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: for this event. This is a fun one, great watch,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: amazing course, all that combined. If you guys want to
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: get in at shiptnation dot com, you can try the
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: five day trial for nineteen dollars or hit me up
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: on x at Totag and Tambo, I'll get you a
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: fifty percent off your first month if you want that
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: as well. Thank you guys for watching. Appreciate everybody that's
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: going to do over this episode for Alex, for myself,
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: to tag and tambo led ship its hands still mass