Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 9/1/2026 with Jed Sidwell | BIG Day in Ag Market News

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 9/1/2026 with Jed Sidwell | BIG Day in Ag Market News · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to Ag Squawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here, live from Joliet, Illinois.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: On the first day of September, this fine Tuesday, we have a lot to talk about.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: We have a tropical storm.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: I've got to talk about the EPA, the Ranchers First Initiative, and the yield curve.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle were up a buck at 95 cents.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: They closed at 212.68.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were up about a half a buck at 321.45.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: Lean Hogs, the big winner yesterday, big motion on the open.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: They were up$1.78 at$83.68.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the grain markets here live with my quotes from Plus$500, I'd like to give them a shout out because they're a sponsor of the show, Plus 500 T4 Trading Software is who we use.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: New crop corn, December contract.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Went up big in the middle of the night.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Came back down this morning, though.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's at 535 and a quarter.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: Nove beans are at 1297 and a half.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: Chicago December wheat is at 775.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Big spike in all the grains, kind of around.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Let me see what time this was.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: This was around three, four o'clock in the morning.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Big motion upward there.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: On to the weather discussion for today.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: An intense heat wave grips the central and southern U.S.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: through the opening of the next 10 days of September.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: 100 plus highs in the southern plains are going to kind of be the new normal.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: But luckily, if you kind of see that big red spot over Texas, tropical storm, I'm not even sure how to say it.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Edward is bringing heavy rain to southeastern Texas as it makes landfall here in the next couple days.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: Local heavy rain is expected for the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Now, we saw this overnight rally last night, and we always love to see it.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: But here's why.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: The EPA exempt 1.76 billion rins from the 2025 renewable fuel standard via 34 small refinery exemptions.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's nearly double of what they had kind of been saying or predicting earlier.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: And that is what caused soybean oil to jump up big.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: It gapped way higher yesterday.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: It gapped up like two bucks, dang near.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: Is it s this right as I'm talking right now, the October soybean oil contract is at 7208?
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: Big, big move there, just increasing the demand for the crush.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: And then we have big news in the livestock space as well.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_00: We just have so much to cover this morning.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm gonna try and speed run through it all.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: The USDA announced a new ranchers first initiative led by a livestock risk protection endorsement called Brand that ensures the decision to retain a bread heifer rather than or retain a bread heifer is covering is covered when you might see a price decline in her value, even though the price of her going to slaughter would stay consistent.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: So it's kind of price protection for the out or for the opportunity cost of that heifer.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: The big thing, the reason I bring up this chart here, Mr.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands made this yesterday, it caught my eye, and I said we're going to have to talk about this in the Fat Tuesday show because it perfectly illustrates what we've been talking about.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: On the left is the timeline of if you sold the heifer just as a market animal.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: On the right is the timeline if you wanted to retain her and keep her back and then have a calf out of her.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: That is a huge difference.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: But huge, huge difference.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's like getting an associate degree versus getting your master's.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: The timeline is that big of a big of a difference.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: And that's what makes this so hard and so hard to ensure.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: Many are pretty skeptical about this.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: There haven't been a lot of details released.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: We'll cover that when they do.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: This was the big headline from CNBC this morning.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: The 10-year yield hit its highest since January 2025 as the Middle East tensions returned to focus.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: The 10-year Treasury yield note, the main benchmark for mortgages, auto loans, credit card debt rose more than two basis points to 44.784%, the highest since January 14, 2025.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: The longer dated 30-year note, uh, which tends to track more geopolitic geopolitical events and things like that, was up more than two basis points at 5.271%.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: And that's something that I think we oftentimes forget about.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: We care about the price of our commodity, and that's all that matters, and we want to see corn go up and hit six bucks, and we want to have cattle rally back to where we were.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: But the outside thing is it doesn't matter how high our commodity prices are, if our interest rates are high.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we all know that farmers and ranchers, I mean, I grew up one, uh, my family is still in production agriculture every single day.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Being leveraged just affects your bottom line so so much, and operating notes are key to everything.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: So when the yield curve does what it does, it puts a pressure on the agricultural production system.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_00: Big things on the economic calendar for today.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: The Purdue AG sentiment comes out at 8 30, the SP Global Manufacturing PMI comes out at 845, the ISM manufacturing PMI comes out at 9, the same time the Jolt's job report comes out.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: The grain crushings come out at 2, the same time as fats and oils.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: So a lot that will happen there.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: I'm interesting to see that grain crushing and fats and oils, what will be reported there.
• 6:30
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• 6:32
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• 6:33
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• 6:40
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• 6:45
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• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: every single day.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, turn the reminder on on your phone so that way you never miss an episode of Ag Squawk.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm so glad you tuned in this fine morning.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with Ag Bull Media.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that loves agriculture.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.