Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 10/14/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Australian Beef Imports?

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 10/14/2026 with Jed Sidwell | Australian Beef Imports? · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning and welcome to AgSquawk AM.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell here with AgBull Media.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: Today we will be talking about the national soybean yield, kind of break it down by state.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about some of the biggest culprits when it comes to beef imports or beef imports, I should say.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a chart of the day.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: We haven't done one of those in a while about Apple.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: We'll get to all of that and more here in a bit.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: Live cattle closed at 226.38 down about a quarter.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle were basically unchanged on the day at 341.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: Lean Hogs closed it essentially 68 bucks down 35 cents.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: As I quote the grain markets here live, I'd like to shout out our sponsor plus 500.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: We use plus 500 every single day to quote the market and trade the market.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: And as we look here live, corn was up just a little bit down just a hair now at 482 and a half.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: Soybeans, the November contract, is up still.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's at 1291 and a half.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: And Chicago December wheat is at 666 and a half.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: As we look towards the weather discussion, kind of the same narrative that we've been talking about on previous shows.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: Flood watches and warnings cover the southeastern plains and extreme southwestern cornbelt, and heavy rains are due today and tomorrow.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's enough to halt field work across the central and southern plains and cornbelt.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: Good news though, dry weather returns Friday through at least Tuesday, but the timing of the week two rain is less certain, you know, kind of October 21st to, you know, October 23rd, somewhere in there.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: But it should favor the plains and western cornbelt.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: The grain market.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the WASDI report, the corn stole the show, and it imp completely impacted the rest of the grain complex.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Because of that, we maybe didn't talk about soybeans quite as much.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: And I thought this map of the United States, every state there is highlighted with their state yield.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: And the darker the color there, the better.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: And obviously, Illinois.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: Wow, 68 bushels an acre for soybeans there.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: The you know, the whole kind of I state, Belt Indo, Ohio, looks great.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: But what caught my eye was down there, kind of at the base of the Mississippi, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, 59, 59, 55.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: Those are good yields for that country down there.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: And they have seen, you know, some this some weather problems that maybe we didn't talk quite about as bit about because we, you know, focus a lot of our concentration in the cattle and corn country.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: But down there on the Mississippi, they've been doing a pretty decent job of getting some great yields.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: And it'll be interesting as we get these out of the field and into Bins what those finalized yields look like.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: But a pretty decent crop considering the weather down there.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: The livestock market discussion.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: There were a lot of different variables I could have talked about on the livestock complex today, and I was kind of struggling to pick my favorite.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: But I just went back to the Fat Tuesday show show yesterday with Mike Sands.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's our weekly cattle discussion that we have with the absolute best, Mike Sands, and we talked about imports and exports on the cattle side for a long time.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: It's a heated discussion right now, and something that's changed a lot, especially in the last five years.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: And as we look over the past five years, we've seen more beef imports and less beef exports.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: And oftentimes we point our finger towards South America.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: But as this bar chart shows here, Australia, man, they are killing it when it comes to beef imports into the United States.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: We've made ourselves such a premium supplier that we're an attractive place to sell beef to for other countries.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: And Australia's industry, vast to begin with, but has been making strides over the past couple years.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: And the other thing, on the livestock side of things that I need to bring up, the Intercontinental Exchange, the ICE Exchange, as we talk about it, that's the place where they trade canola at up in Canada.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: They announced that they will be having livestock contracts that you can hedge and trade livestock on that exchange.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: More developments will come there and what exactly that looks like.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see if it takes off.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: You know, oftentimes new markets get announced on different exchanges and sometimes, you know, fail to launch.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: There has been, you know, some skettlebutt that people don't like what's currently going on with where we currently trade the livestock markets at.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: But we'll see if the ice is any better.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: This is the chart of the day that I alluded to at the top of the show.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Retail tech prices hike to the AI dener satur hike to the AI data center build out, soaking up all the memory and storage chips and all of just the physical hardware to really kind of drive up prices on consumer goods.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: The cheapest Apple TV went from$129 when they launched it in 2022 to this summer in June, essentially$200.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: And the new model they announced yesterday, it's$300.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: And as we look at this chart here, I think what's really surprising to look at is that Apple wearables and home and accessories net sales.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Is fairly on par with what they've been doing.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: But that is a small percentage of their total.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Back in 2022, that was 10.5% of their total sales.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's 7.8%.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: And that's enough of a change to realize that maybe this market is shifting.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: That's not the profitable sector of their business anymore.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: And they're focusing towards other things.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: On the economic calendar for today, the MBA mortgage application comes out at 6 a.m.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: The CPI comes out just a little bit later.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: Uh right now, it's going to come out here in a few minutes at 7 30 a.m.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: Central.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: The Fed Beige Book comes out at 1 p.m.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well, thank you for watching and thank you for listening.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: Make sure and could catch all of our shows on all platforms.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: We've had some really great ones here recently.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: The slate of guests Davis has for the rest of the week on AgSquawk in the afternoon really gets me excited.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: I also encourage you to go over to AgBull.com.
• 7:18
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• 7:25
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• 7:30
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• 7:33
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• 7:35
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• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's all I have for you today.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for watching.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you for listening.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Jed Sidwell with AgBull Media.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: We're a financial channel that absolutely loves agriculture.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'll talk to you tomorrow.