Latest / This Week On ICE / The government shutdown's impact on your cybersecurity — plus, identifying the next Minnesota.

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The government shutdown's impact on your cybersecurity — plus, identifying the next Minnesota. · This Week On ICE

0:07
SPEAKER_02: Hello and welcome to the second edition of This Week on Ice.
0:10
SPEAKER_02: I'm Matthew Kendrick.
0:12
SPEAKER_00: And I'm Kelly Kimball.
0:14
SPEAKER_02: And this week, we have a hell of a show for you.
0:16
We're going to talk about the partial shutdowns impact on the
0:20
Department of
0:20
SPEAKER_02: Homeland Security and how it could affect ordinary Americans.
0:24
SPEAKER_02: And then we'll be talking about where the next Minnesota might be.
0:28
And we have an interview with the Cato Institute's David Beer
0:32
on the financial and
0:34
SPEAKER_02: fiscal impacts of migration coming right up.
0:38
We have a wonderful question from a listener and friend of the
0:41
show,
0:42
Lily.
0:42
SPEAKER_00: Hi, Lily.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: And she asks,
0:44
SPEAKER_00: how will this government shutdown affect travel compared to last time the
0:48
SPEAKER_00: government shut down?
0:50
SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
0:50
So last week we talked about Congress not being able to reach a
0:53
deal on funding the DHS.
0:56
SPEAKER_02: And so from Sunday onwards,
0:58
SPEAKER_02: that department of the government has been in a little mini shutdown,
1:02
SPEAKER_02: a partial shutdown.
1:03
Democrats sent an offer to reopen the department to Republicans
1:07
on Tuesday
1:07
SPEAKER_02: afternoon,
1:08
SPEAKER_02: but the White House rejected it a few hours later.
1:10
SPEAKER_02: So it seems really stalemated.
1:13
SPEAKER_02: And as we mentioned last week,
1:15
ICE and Customs and Border Patrol received about $85 billion in
1:19
funding last year.
1:20
SPEAKER_02: So they're going to be working full blast throughout this.
1:24
SPEAKER_02: But about 90% of remaining DHS employees like TSA agents,
1:28
SPEAKER_02: Coast Guard personnel,
1:30
SPEAKER_02: many,
1:30
SPEAKER_02: many other people,
1:31
SPEAKER_02: are classified as accepted,
1:32
meaning they will have to work without getting paid until this
1:36
thing is over,
1:37
SPEAKER_02: which could take quite a while.
1:39
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
1:39
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
1:39
to really further clear the air on what this partial government
1:42
shutdown looks like
1:44
SPEAKER_00: is that it won't necessarily affect many everyday Americans,
1:48
SPEAKER_00: especially not the way it did last time.
1:50
SPEAKER_00: we won't feel the impact at least for several weeks.
1:53
SPEAKER_00: The parts of DHS that will shut down that do worry me are two.
1:57
SPEAKER_00: FEMA,
1:57
which is our disaster relief and disaster management branch of
2:00
the government,
2:01
it has about two months left worth of disaster relief funding
2:04
before things start
2:05
SPEAKER_00: to feel shaky.
2:06
And we're about to walk into one of the most critical seasons
2:09
of natural disasters
2:10
SPEAKER_00: in the United States.
2:12
SPEAKER_00: May through August are historically the worst months for the U.S.
2:16
SPEAKER_00: in terms of natural disasters dating back from the 1980s.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: Now,
2:20
the second thing that I don't think anyone is really talking
2:23
about quite enough yet
2:24
is that there is less manpower overseeing cybersecurity
2:27
infrastructure in the
2:29
SPEAKER_00: government right now.
2:30
SPEAKER_00: And I'm going to tie this into something else.
2:32
SPEAKER_00: Every year,
2:32
the Council on Foreign Relations releases a report on the top
2:35
conflicts to watch
2:37
SPEAKER_00: all over the world.
2:38
SPEAKER_00: Now,
2:38
the United States is not usually given a high category of
2:42
impact and likelihood
2:44
SPEAKER_00: until this year.
2:45
CFR predicts that the United States may succumb to a highly
2:49
disruptive cyber attack
2:50
SPEAKER_00: by a state or non-state entity on critical U.S.
2:53
SPEAKER_00: infrastructure.
2:54
SPEAKER_02: As far as what could end this,
2:56
SPEAKER_02: Democrats have been pushing for forbidding ICE agents from wearing masks,
3:00
SPEAKER_02: requiring warrants signed by a judge to make immigration arrests,
3:03
an end to kind of roving controls where DHS agents will be on
3:07
the streets looking
3:08
SPEAKER_02: to make an arrest without necessarily having any reasonable suspicion.
3:12
SPEAKER_02: and then a requirement for body cameras.
3:14
And of those,
3:14
I think by far the most effective measure would be the judicial
3:18
warrants.
3:18
Having to have a judge sign off on an arrest that an ICE agent
3:22
wants to make,
3:23
SPEAKER_02: review the evidence,
3:24
SPEAKER_02: and put reasonable guardrails around ICE activities.
3:28
SPEAKER_02: That could lead to a greater accountability,
3:29
SPEAKER_02: create a paper trail so we can track who's been detained,
3:32
SPEAKER_02: who's been investigated by ICE,
3:33
SPEAKER_02: who's been arrested.
3:34
But I think counterintuitively,
3:36
the body cameras which are getting the most attention
3:39
SPEAKER_02: and which Kristi Noem readily accepted early on.
3:44
I see that as very dangerous for civilians because it creates a
3:48
mass surveillance
3:48
SPEAKER_02: network,
3:49
SPEAKER_02: a ton of cameras everywhere,
3:51
SPEAKER_02: monitoring who is protesting,
3:53
SPEAKER_02: monitoring who's dissenting,
3:55
SPEAKER_02: monitoring all sorts
3:57
of personal information that we've already seen ICE agents say
4:01
they're creating a
4:02
SPEAKER_02: database of dissenters who they're calling domestic terrorists.
4:06
We know that ICE is using facial recognition technology from
4:08
Clearview AI and
4:10
SPEAKER_02: Mobile Fortify to identify citizens.
4:12
SPEAKER_02: We know that they've subpoenaed tech companies like Meta,
4:15
SPEAKER_02: which owns Facebook and Instagram,
4:17
SPEAKER_02: Reddit,
4:17
SPEAKER_02: Google,
4:18
SPEAKER_02: Discord,
4:19
SPEAKER_02: asking for personal information of people who criticize ICE.
4:22
And they have a contract with Palantir that is supposed to be
4:25
able to identify and
4:26
SPEAKER_02: track the real-time locations of individuals of interest to ICE.
4:30
SPEAKER_02: So it's extremely important that ordinary people record ICE.
4:33
SPEAKER_02: Otherwise, we would not know nearly as much about their activities.
4:36
We would not know nearly as much about the murders of Alex
4:39
Preddy and Renee Good
4:41
SPEAKER_02: with civilians recording that interaction.
4:42
SPEAKER_02: So I'm very pro that.
4:43
I'm very pro monitoring ICE activities,
4:46
but I do worry about body cameras specifically.
4:49
SPEAKER_02: Kelly,
4:49
SPEAKER_02: I'm wondering as well about what it means for oversight of ICE,
4:53
SPEAKER_02: who,
4:53
SPEAKER_02: as we mentioned,
4:54
SPEAKER_02: will not be nearly as affected by the shutdown.
4:56
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, absolutely.
4:57
So earlier this week,
4:59
Politico released a report on the DHS Inspector General Office.
5:03
So this is an office that looks into active probes on the
5:06
government's immigration crackdown.
5:08
They have eight active probes right now looking into things
5:10
like reviews of the use
5:12
SPEAKER_00: of facial recognition by ICE officers,
5:14
SPEAKER_00: allegations of excessive force.
5:16
This Politico report basically says that the lapse in DHS
5:20
funding is forcing the
5:22
SPEAKER_00: inspector general office to suspend about 85 percent of its audits,
5:26
SPEAKER_00: evaluations and inspections.
5:28
And if we compare that to some other reports that are coming
5:30
out from the news,
5:31
ProPublica is tracking a historic rise in challenges filed by
5:36
immigrants claiming
5:37
SPEAKER_00: their detention is illegal.
5:38
SPEAKER_00: And this isn't just historic.
5:40
SPEAKER_00: It is illegal.
5:41
SPEAKER_00: astronomical the amount of cases filed by immigrants.
5:44
A given week in December 2024 would see anywhere from three to
5:49
six cases being
5:50
SPEAKER_00: filed by immigrants.
5:52
SPEAKER_00: As of the week of February 9th,
5:53
there were at least 2,005 cases filed by immigrants claiming
5:58
their detention is
5:59
SPEAKER_00: illegal.
6:00
SPEAKER_00: Without the DHS inspector general looking into things like this,
6:04
these are the things that are going to start to compound upon
6:07
themselves over time.
6:08
SPEAKER_02: Yeah,
6:09
extremely worrying to see such a rapid increase in alleged
6:13
illegal detentions,
6:14
SPEAKER_02: which,
6:14
SPEAKER_02: of course,
6:15
SPEAKER_02: coincides with the ICE crackdown.
6:18
SPEAKER_02: Now,
6:18
SPEAKER_02: last week,
6:19
we talked about Borders are Tom Homan saying that he would pull
6:24
ICE agents out of
6:25
SPEAKER_02: Minneapolis,
6:26
SPEAKER_02: St.
6:26
SPEAKER_02: Paul.
6:27
SPEAKER_02: But obviously, the immigration crackdown is not going away.
6:32
And so Kelly has been looking into a few other places where we
6:37
might see another DHS crackdown.
6:39
And I was wondering if you could explain to our listeners just
6:42
what you've been
6:43
SPEAKER_02: looking into and where you think the next blow could fall.
6:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
6:47
and I would like to preface this by saying that there is no
6:49
public confirmation of
6:51
SPEAKER_00: an operation being planned in any part of the country.
6:54
But that does not mean that there isn't going to be an ice
6:57
surge somewhere.
6:59
SPEAKER_00: There are two places that come to mind.
7:00
SPEAKER_00: The first one is Springfield, Ohio.
7:03
SPEAKER_00: Earlier this month,
7:04
SPEAKER_00: the government tried to end temporary protected status of Haitians,
7:08
but it was blocked by a federal judge Anna Reyes keeping the
7:11
protections in place.
7:12
This is particularly important because there are about 350,000
7:15
Haitians that live
7:16
SPEAKER_00: in the United States under TPS,
7:18
SPEAKER_00: and there's an estimated 12,000 to 15,000 Haitians in Springfield,
7:23
SPEAKER_00: Ohio.
7:24
SPEAKER_02: What is TPS?
7:25
SPEAKER_02: Could you explain to the listeners what TPS means?
7:27
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
7:28
SPEAKER_00: This is called temporary protected status.
7:30
It is basically a status that doesn't necessarily give you a
7:33
path to citizenship,
7:35
but it gives you a temporary right to be in the United States
7:38
if you are facing
7:39
SPEAKER_00: ongoing and systemic crises in your country of origin.
7:42
SPEAKER_00: So,
7:43
SPEAKER_00: for example,
7:44
SPEAKER_00: when it comes to Haiti,
7:45
Haitians have had temporary protective status in the United
7:48
States since 2010.
7:49
SPEAKER_00: when they had an earthquake that basically decimated the country.
7:52
It has been extended every few years because of ongoing
7:56
systemic corruption,
7:57
gang violence.
7:58
SPEAKER_00: It's just very hard to live in Haiti right now.
8:01
SPEAKER_00: So this temporary protected status is on a knife's edge.
8:05
This federal judge is receiving anonymous death threats from
8:08
people who disagree
8:09
SPEAKER_00: with her,
8:10
SPEAKER_00: preventing the ending of TPS for Haitians.
8:13
And so it has been said on multiple reports that the Trump
8:16
administration is eyeing
8:17
SPEAKER_00: Ohio for immigration enforcement,
8:19
SPEAKER_00: specifically for Haitian immigrants.
8:21
There is quite a bit of local response to the potential for an
8:24
ice surge in Springfield.
8:27
There's an incredible founder of this suburban moms group
8:30
called Red Wine and Blue.
8:32
SPEAKER_00: Her name is Katie Parrish.
8:33
SPEAKER_00: She founded an organization to empower suburban moms to exercise their
8:37
SPEAKER_00: political power.
8:38
SPEAKER_00: And this organization has a membership of 600,000,
8:41
SPEAKER_00: which,
8:42
SPEAKER_00: by the way,
8:42
SPEAKER_00: Springfield only has 60,000 people in it.
8:45
SPEAKER_00: So it is a nationwide movement.
8:47
SPEAKER_00: And earlier this month,
8:48
she organized a Zoom gathering called Unite for Springfield
8:52
that gathered over
8:53
SPEAKER_00: 4,000 people to organize in preparation for a potential ice surge.
8:58
So there's a lot of local mobilization,
9:00
local mutual aid,
9:02
just like we saw in Minneapolis.
9:03
And I'm really looking toward what they are going to do if
9:07
there is such an
9:08
SPEAKER_00: operation going to be conducted there.
9:10
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, that's really scary.
9:12
SPEAKER_00: It is very scary.
9:13
There's also another part of the country that I feel is not
9:16
quite getting attention
9:17
SPEAKER_00: yet because the news just dropped.
9:19
SPEAKER_00: No one is really talking about how five days ago,
9:21
Secretary of Homeland Security Christine Noem announced the
9:24
termination of TPS for
9:26
SPEAKER_00: Yemenis who are in the United States.
9:28
The status will terminate in a couple of months unless it is
9:31
blocked by a federal
9:32
SPEAKER_00: judge,
9:33
SPEAKER_00: just like we saw for Haitians in Ohio.
9:37
SPEAKER_00: Yemen is still at war right now.
9:39
While fighting between Houthi rebels and Saudi coalition that
9:43
backs Yemen's
9:43
SPEAKER_00: government have subsided,
9:45
there is still an economic crisis continuing to compound an
9:48
ongoing humanitarian
9:50
SPEAKER_00: crisis.
9:51
The Yemeni diaspora is mostly located in Northern California,
9:55
especially Oakland and Fresno.
9:57
So I would also be looking toward Oakland and Fresno as a
10:00
potential next frontline
10:02
SPEAKER_00: or the next quote unquote Minnesota in the United States.
10:06
SPEAKER_02: We're going to take a quick break right now,
10:07
and we'll be right back with another listener question and that
10:12
interview with
10:13
SPEAKER_02: David Beer.
10:17
SPEAKER_02: Hey, folks, Matt here.
10:18
SPEAKER_02: We are in the middle of this independent launch for our show,
10:23
and the number one thing you can do to help us is share this
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10:28
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10:33
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10:34
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10:38
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SPEAKER_02: wider world.
10:44
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10:47
SPEAKER_02: Thanks for listening.
10:52
SPEAKER_00: Hi, everybody.
10:53
SPEAKER_00: Welcome back to This Week on ICE.
10:55
SPEAKER_00: Let's continue where we left off.
10:56
We have an anonymous audience question,
10:59
and I'm going to tee this off to Matt.
11:01
SPEAKER_00: What do we got?
11:03
One of our listeners contacted us about a relative who's a
11:06
Korean-American adoptee
11:08
SPEAKER_02: and who is creating an ICE plan with her family.
11:11
And this listener was wondering if Korean-Americans are at risk
11:15
of deportation.
11:16
And the short answer is yes,
11:18
and particularly Korean-Americans who are adopted.
11:21
SPEAKER_02: In fact,
11:22
Korean American adoptees have been the subject of high-profile
11:25
deportations going
11:26
SPEAKER_02: back to the Obama administration,
11:28
SPEAKER_02: because many of them,
11:29
SPEAKER_02: thousands,
11:30
are caught in this bureaucratic nightmare that saw thousands of
11:34
Korean adoptees
11:36
SPEAKER_02: never properly registered as U.S.
11:37
SPEAKER_02: citizens, even though they grew up here their whole life.
11:40
They do not,
11:41
in many cases,
11:42
speak Korean and have little connection to their country of
11:46
origin.
11:46
SPEAKER_02: And so...
11:48
SPEAKER_02: To give you guys a little bit of context,
11:50
Koreans make up the largest foreign adoptee community in the
11:52
United States.
11:54
SPEAKER_02: Basically,
11:54
SPEAKER_02: during the final couple of weeks of World War II,
11:57
SPEAKER_02: the US and the Soviet Union divided up the Korean Peninsula,
12:01
SPEAKER_02: which had formerly been a colony of Japan.
12:03
and then when north korea invaded south korea in 1950 the u.s
12:08
fought alongside the
12:09
south for three years before the war ended in the stalemate but
12:12
the destruction
12:13
unleashed on both sides of north of the korean peninsula was
12:17
just horrible so after
12:19
the war south korea was experiencing a level of poverty
12:22
comparable to like haiti or
12:23
SPEAKER_02: malawi
12:24
SPEAKER_02: just truly abject deprivation.
12:27
SPEAKER_02: And so over the next several decades, thousands of U.S.
12:30
SPEAKER_02: families,
12:31
SPEAKER_02: and not just U.S.,
12:31
SPEAKER_02: but Australian,
12:32
SPEAKER_02: Dutch,
12:33
SPEAKER_02: many other people started adopting Korean children.
12:36
SPEAKER_02: So that amounted in the U.S.
12:38
SPEAKER_02: to about 109,000 children between 1953 and 2008.
12:42
Now,
12:42
obviously,
12:43
South Korea today,
12:44
very developed economy,
12:45
very rich economy,
12:46
very prosperous.
12:47
But even as that economic prosperity was building in the late
12:50
60s,
12:51
70s,
12:51
and 80s,
12:52
thousands of children were still in horrible circumstances and
12:57
ended up being adopted.
12:58
SPEAKER_02: The problem is that the U.S.
13:01
did not necessarily inform adoptive parents that they were
13:05
required to register
13:07
SPEAKER_02: their adoptive children as U.S.
13:09
SPEAKER_02: citizens.
13:10
SPEAKER_02: And many parents just kind of logically assumed that they're U.S.
13:14
SPEAKER_02: citizens, they're adopting a child, that child is therefore a U.S.
13:17
SPEAKER_02: citizen.
13:18
SPEAKER_02: And that left anywhere between,
13:19
SPEAKER_02: I've heard as low as 8,500,
13:21
SPEAKER_02: I've heard as high as 70,000 children without US citizenship.
13:26
SPEAKER_02: So this is an especially large problem.
13:29
SPEAKER_02: There have been some attempts to fix this.
13:31
SPEAKER_02: Basically, all Korean children adopted before 1983
13:35
SPEAKER_02: are now U.S.
13:36
SPEAKER_02: citizens through an act of Congress.
13:38
SPEAKER_02: But ICE has still regularly harassed and detained lawful U.S.
13:42
SPEAKER_02: citizens.
13:43
SPEAKER_02: A Korean paper,
13:43
SPEAKER_02: The Korea Times,
13:44
SPEAKER_02: has reported on anxieties in Korean American neighborhoods,
13:47
SPEAKER_02: particularly in Southern California,
13:49
SPEAKER_02: which has a very high concentration
13:51
of korean americans and i reached out to an organization called
13:55
co-root which uh
13:57
advocates for korean adoptees especially ones who are caught up
14:00
in immigration
14:00
issues who may have been deported back to south korea having a
14:03
hard time fitting in
14:04
SPEAKER_02: and they told me the following i'm going to quote from their email
14:07
SPEAKER_02: Quote,
14:07
SPEAKER_02: we have heard of several deportations in recent months,
14:10
SPEAKER_02: but the numbers and verification are very difficult to confirm.
14:14
One of the most significant factors in relation to ICE and DHS
14:17
is fear and insecurity.
14:19
SPEAKER_02: This is what we received the greatest number of inquiries about.
14:22
I have been contacted by frustrated adoptees who say that they
14:25
voted for Trump both
14:26
SPEAKER_02: the first and second time,
14:28
SPEAKER_02: but now question whether that was the right decision.
14:30
SPEAKER_02: And it has resulted in fear and insecurity regarding their own situation.
14:34
SPEAKER_02: Many adoptees are afraid to speak out,
14:37
SPEAKER_02: fearing that they may become targets of retaliation if they do so.
14:40
And given what we just talked about concerning ICE subpoenas of
14:45
social media,
14:46
SPEAKER_02: I think that is a legitimate fear.
14:48
So in summation,
14:50
yes,
14:50
many Korean American adoptees are in a vulnerable place right
14:53
now.
14:53
SPEAKER_02: And Kelly,
14:54
SPEAKER_02: can you help us understand what folks can do to be prepared in the tragic
15:00
SPEAKER_02: eventuality of ICE harassing or detaining a loved one?
15:04
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, first, just a very human response to this.
15:07
I cannot believe that Korean adoptees are just not
15:10
automatically US citizens.
15:12
SPEAKER_00: This is kind of an extraordinary thing to realize and to hear right now.
15:16
SPEAKER_00: So as somebody who came from a predominantly Asian American community,
15:20
I know a lot of people who are adoptees from Korea and
15:24
elsewhere in East Asia.
15:25
SPEAKER_00: So that's it's it's really hitting home for me personally.
15:28
So there are many resources out there to help families and
15:31
individuals put together
15:33
SPEAKER_00: an ice preparedness plan.
15:36
SPEAKER_00: I am not the first person to answer this question,
15:38
but I can direct you toward resources that are vetted and
15:41
highly useful at this
15:43
SPEAKER_00: time.
15:43
The best out there that I've seen is from the Immigration Legal
15:46
Resource Center.
15:47
SPEAKER_00: So they have a toolkit, an ICE preparedness plan for families.
15:51
SPEAKER_00: Importantly, it suggests ways to set up a backup caregiver.
15:54
That's the number one action item that I think anybody with a
15:57
family should look
15:57
SPEAKER_00: into is should you be detained and forced to leave your children behind,
16:02
SPEAKER_00: It's important to set up a caregiver or a guardian in your stead.
16:05
This can be either from an informal agreement to an actual
16:08
agreement that you set
16:09
SPEAKER_00: up with a lawyer.
16:10
SPEAKER_00: This is particularly important right now because earlier this year,
16:14
a new source called Notice reported that at least 30 children
16:18
in seven states have
16:19
entered the foster care system because their parents were
16:22
deported across several
16:23
SPEAKER_00: different states.
16:24
Getting the exact numbers of children put into the foster care
16:28
system because of
16:29
SPEAKER_00: ICE detentions is very difficult.
16:31
SPEAKER_00: This number is likely higher.
16:33
One official told the Women's Refugee Center that the ICE
16:36
detention process behaves
16:37
SPEAKER_00: as if it is designed to separate families.
16:41
SPEAKER_00: So that is the number one action item.
16:43
SPEAKER_00: Number two,
16:44
update your emergency contact list and inform every single
16:47
person on that list that
16:48
SPEAKER_00: they are on your contact list.
16:50
This should include the contact information for your country's
16:53
nearest consulate as well.
16:55
SPEAKER_00: Number three,
16:55
put all your important documents and printed copies of these
16:58
documents in one go
17:00
SPEAKER_00: bag and let those in your emergency contact list know where it is.
17:04
Have routine check-ins with those on your list so that if they
17:07
don't hear from you
17:08
SPEAKER_00: after a certain amount of time,
17:10
SPEAKER_00: they'll know that something is off and they'll start looking for you.
17:13
And then the fourth and final thing is to get a proper legal
17:16
consultation from a
17:17
SPEAKER_00: trusted legal professional.
17:18
SPEAKER_00: There's a fantastic source called the Immigration Advocates Network.
17:22
It's basically a directory of free and low-cost immigration
17:25
legal services.
17:26
SPEAKER_00: Those are just four,
17:27
SPEAKER_00: but I highly recommend,
17:28
SPEAKER_00: again,
17:28
SPEAKER_00: looking at the Immigration Legal Resource Center and downloading their
17:32
20-page toolkit and really going beat by beat with your family
17:36
and trusted folks to
17:38
really get the conversation going on how to protect yourself
17:41
and prepare should ICE
17:42
SPEAKER_00: come knocking at your door.
17:45
SPEAKER_02: Thank you so much.
17:46
SPEAKER_02: Next up,
17:46
SPEAKER_02: we have David Beer of the Cato Institute,
17:49
SPEAKER_02: one of my favorite voices on migration out there,
17:53
is going to talk to us a little bit about a study he's done
17:55
tracking the fiscal
17:57
SPEAKER_02: effects of migration,
17:59
SPEAKER_02: both legal and illegal,
18:01
SPEAKER_02: into the United States over the last 30 years.
18:08
SPEAKER_02: David Beer is the director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute,
18:12
SPEAKER_02: a libertarian think tank based in Washington,
18:15
SPEAKER_02: D.C.
18:16
SPEAKER_02: His work has appeared in The New York Times,
18:18
SPEAKER_02: The Washington Post,
18:19
SPEAKER_02: PBS,
18:20
SPEAKER_02: and many other top journalistic outlets.
18:22
SPEAKER_02: He's also been cited in the U.S.
18:23
Supreme Court and testified in front of both houses of Congress
18:27
multiple times.
18:28
SPEAKER_02: David, thank you so much for being here and welcome to This Week on Ice.
18:31
SPEAKER_02: Thanks for having me on.
18:33
You and your colleagues at Cato are just out with a study on
18:36
the fiscal effects of
18:37
SPEAKER_02: migration that I found really interesting.
18:39
Could you tell us a little bit about your top line findings and
18:42
how you reach them?
18:44
SPEAKER_01: Overall,
18:44
SPEAKER_01: we found that over the last 30 years,
18:47
SPEAKER_01: immigrants of all types,
18:49
SPEAKER_01: legal and illegal,
18:50
SPEAKER_01: have reduced the deficits at the federal,
18:55
SPEAKER_01: state and local level by about 14 and a half years.
18:59
SPEAKER_01: trillion.
19:00
SPEAKER_01: So if you break that down,
19:03
we found that the illegal immigrants reduced deficits by about
19:07
$1.7 trillion,
19:08
SPEAKER_01: the remainder being for illegal immigrants.
19:11
SPEAKER_01: And if you look at just low-skilled immigrants,
19:14
SPEAKER_01: meaning anyone without a college degree,
19:17
SPEAKER_01: they also reduced deficits by over $2 trillion.
19:21
SPEAKER_01: If you look at everything that the government spends its money on,
19:24
SPEAKER_01: the biggest portion of it is essentially the fixed costs of government.
19:29
SPEAKER_01: Basically, interest payments on past debt.
19:33
SPEAKER_01: So if a new person comes, they don't increase the past debt.
19:36
SPEAKER_01: We'd still have to cover the payments on that.
19:39
SPEAKER_01: And also the military.
19:41
SPEAKER_01: And if you exclude those two items,
19:43
then you end up seeing a better picture of how does the budget
19:48
actually change when
19:49
SPEAKER_01: you have another additional person enter society.
19:53
And on average,
19:54
when you add a new person,
19:56
they're actually reducing the deficit.
19:57
So population growth,
19:59
new people,
20:00
it's a good thing,
20:01
whether immigrants or not.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: It helps with the deficit problem.
20:05
Now,
20:06
on the benefit side,
20:08
the big savings are on elderly benefits or retiree benefits.
20:13
These are essentially three things,
20:15
Social Security,
20:16
Medicare and public pensions.
20:20
Immigrants work for the government at fairly low rates compared
20:24
to their share of
20:25
SPEAKER_01: the population,
20:26
SPEAKER_01: so they don't get much in terms of public pensions.
20:29
They are often ineligible for both Medicare and Social Security
20:35
because of their legal status.
20:37
SPEAKER_01: And on top of that,
20:38
you have people who arrive after their working career and you
20:42
have to have a
20:42
SPEAKER_01: certain working history in order to qualify for Social Security.
20:46
And on the welfare side,
20:48
they're about average,
20:49
even though they're much more likely to be
20:51
SPEAKER_01: In poverty,
20:52
SPEAKER_01: there's,
20:53
SPEAKER_01: again,
20:53
these status restrictions for illegal immigrants and recent
20:57
arrivals that means
20:59
that their benefits use is going to be lower than what it would
21:03
otherwise be.
21:04
SPEAKER_00: Critics of migration often say,
21:05
SPEAKER_00: and to paraphrase President Trump,
21:08
SPEAKER_00: that other countries aren't sending their best.
21:10
And yet your study found that even immigrants with low levels
21:13
of education
21:14
SPEAKER_00: contributed nearly $3 trillion in fiscal surplus.
21:17
SPEAKER_00: You know,
21:17
what do your findings tell us about the role immigrants play in
21:21
this economy and
21:22
SPEAKER_00: American society?
21:24
SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
21:24
SPEAKER_01: first of all,
21:25
many of these people are the most entrepreneurial in their
21:28
societies and that are
21:31
SPEAKER_01: being oppressed by poor governance.
21:34
SPEAKER_01: And when they get here, they can actually make the most of their life.
21:37
SPEAKER_01: And so what we see is when people move,
21:39
SPEAKER_01: their productivity increases dramatically by coming to the United States.
21:43
And I think the lesson here is that having a better immigration
21:47
system where more
21:48
SPEAKER_01: people can move to the United States
21:51
really expands the productivity of the world and gives people
21:57
an opportunity to
21:58
SPEAKER_01: contribute not just to American society,
22:01
SPEAKER_01: but to the world economy as well.
22:04
SPEAKER_01: When someone moves from a poor
22:06
SPEAKER_01: place like Haiti and they move to the United States,
22:08
they ultimately make about 10 times as much doing the same type
22:13
of work because of
22:16
the institutions and capital and technology in the United
22:21
States that enables them
22:22
SPEAKER_01: to be so much more productive.
22:24
So I'm curious if you found any data that can help us
22:27
understand how the Trump
22:28
administration's crackdown right now on immigrants will impact
22:32
long term prospects.
22:34
This administration has already essentially eliminated new
22:38
illegal immigration flows.
22:40
And so all of it's going to come from the legal immigration
22:42
system right now.
22:44
And a majority of all legal immigrants to the United States
22:48
have been banned by
22:50
SPEAKER_01: executive order by this administration.
22:53
SPEAKER_01: The result of that is going to be a declining workforce.
22:57
SPEAKER_01: And even total population is likely to decline as a result of these
23:03
really draconian restrictions on inflows as well as deportation
23:08
so our estimate is
23:09
it's about 1.7 trillion over the last 30 years for the illegal
23:13
immigrant population
23:15
in the united states but all of these numbers these are the
23:18
lower bound like these
23:19
are the the minimum most conservative estimate because we're
23:23
not taking into
23:23
SPEAKER_01: account how much immigrants increase the productivity
23:28
SPEAKER_01: of the US workforce.
23:30
SPEAKER_01: So just to give you an example,
23:32
the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the illegal
23:36
immigrant flow over the
23:37
Biden years would reduce deficits by about a trillion dollars
23:43
over 10 years.
23:44
And a third of that would come from increases in productivity
23:49
of the U.S.
23:50
SPEAKER_01: born workforce.
23:52
The fact that you have low skilled immigrants coming in and
23:55
doing some of the
23:55
SPEAKER_01: toughest,
23:56
most manual labor intensive jobs allows Americans to specialize
24:01
in higher paid
24:02
SPEAKER_01: positions within those industries.
24:04
SPEAKER_01: So if we got rid of the immigrants, then the U.S.
24:07
born workers would stop doing their more productive jobs and
24:11
have to do these other jobs.
24:13
SPEAKER_02: You know,
24:13
I was really interested when you said that this stop of
24:17
migration flows could even
24:18
SPEAKER_02: lead to population decline.
24:20
SPEAKER_02: I started my career in China and South Korea,
24:22
SPEAKER_02: two countries that have enormous problems with population decline.
24:26
SPEAKER_02: Are we embracing a massive problem that people in China,
24:29
SPEAKER_02: South Korea,
24:30
SPEAKER_02: Japan have been trying to find a solution for for 30 years?
24:33
SPEAKER_01: It's an enormous problem, a massive problem.
24:37
SPEAKER_01: If you look at just what we're facing within the next decade,
24:41
Social Security says we need about 34 million additional
24:45
workers to keep revenues
24:46
SPEAKER_01: equal to expenses in that system.
24:49
and immigrants are certainly part of the solution there's no
24:52
way to avoid it
24:54
entirely but immigrants make the problem a little bit less
24:57
severe than it would
24:59
otherwise be and so by keeping out immigrants not redesigning a
25:04
better legal
25:04
immigration system and deporting people yeah we could see net
25:08
negative population
25:10
growth over the next three years and we likely have already hit
25:14
that point given
25:15
SPEAKER_01: the amount of deportations and how low
25:18
SPEAKER_01: illegal immigration is.
25:20
We're heading to negative territory quite rapidly under this
25:23
administration.
25:24
SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much, David.
25:25
SPEAKER_01: Really appreciate you.
25:31
SPEAKER_02: Thank you so much to David Beer for joining us.
25:33
SPEAKER_02: You can find more of his stuff at the Cato Institute website,
25:37
SPEAKER_02: cato.org,
25:38
SPEAKER_02: as well on his Twitter account.
25:41
SPEAKER_02: So we also want to leave you with what we have on our radar,
25:44
SPEAKER_02: what we're looking at going forward.
25:46
SPEAKER_02: And first and foremost,
25:49
I want to talk soon about Venezuelans who have been sent to the
25:54
CIPOC prison in El
25:55
SPEAKER_02: Salvador,
25:56
SPEAKER_02: one of the Western Hemisphere's most notorious and dangerous prisons,
26:01
SPEAKER_02: and a judge who's ordered the Trump administration to return them.
26:05
SPEAKER_02: This is going to be an ongoing saga
26:07
And then I'm also very curious about a story emerging that ICE
26:11
is not paying its
26:13
SPEAKER_02: medical contractors who are meant to take care of detainees.
26:18
SPEAKER_02: But until next time,
26:19
SPEAKER_02: remember,
26:19
SPEAKER_02: you can always reach us at thisweekonice at gmail.com,
26:23
SPEAKER_02: and we will be happy to field your questions.
26:26
SPEAKER_02: Look after your neighbors.
26:27
SPEAKER_02: Stay safe, everyone.
26:29
SPEAKER_02: And thanks for listening.
26:30
SPEAKER_00: Thank you so much, everybody.