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Trump and Putin are showing the world what dumb power can do · The Morning Edition

0:06
S1: We know that Donald Trump has long chased after Vladimir
0:10
S1: Putin's approval. Remember the time when Trump tweeted, do you
0:14
S1: think Putin will be attending the Miss Universe pageant in
0:17
S1: Moscow in November? If so, will he become my new
0:20
S1: best friend? That was 13 years ago, and now Trump
0:24
S1: is Putin's match, but perhaps not in the way that
0:27
S1: he'd like. I'm Samantha Salinger Morris, and you're listening to
0:31
S1: The Morning Edition from The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald. Today,
0:36
S1: international and political editor Peter Hartcher on the humiliation of
0:40
S1: Trump and Putin by far smaller nations, and what their
0:44
S1: distinctly dumb brand of power might do to all of us.
0:47
S1: It's June the 4th. Hey, Peter.
0:54
S2: Hi, Samantha.
0:55
S1: Welcome back.
0:56
S2: Thank you. Always a pleasure to be here.
0:59
S1: Okay. well, I'm so glad because as always, I'm fascinated
1:03
S1: by what you've written and in particular, you have a
1:05
S1: very different take, I think, on what Putin and Trump,
1:10
S1: what they're doing to the world and how they're doing
1:11
S1: it than than many, I think, have taken so many people.
1:14
S1: They speak about the wars that they've launched, and they
1:16
S1: discuss these two leaders as evil or selfish or potentially corrupt.
1:22
S1: I interviewed the human rights expert Geoffrey Robertson last year,
1:25
S1: and he said that Vladimir Putin is, quote, the worst
1:28
S1: man in the world. And that's because in the view
1:31
S1: of the international court, launching a war in which millions
1:34
S1: are killed is actually a worse crime than genocide. But
1:37
S1: you've said that they are dumb as dumb. And I'm
1:40
S1: going to quote here as a bag of hammers. So
1:43
S1: how dumb are we talking about? And are they dumber
1:46
S1: than many previously thought?
1:49
S2: Well, thank you for going to that, uh, that, uh,
1:53
S2: very concrete simile. Yes. Dumb as a bag of hammers
1:58
S2: and yes, dumber than we thought. But I'll just point
2:00
S2: out briefly, Samantha, that the other qualities that Geoffrey Robertson
2:05
S2: attributed to Putin are not mutually exclusive with being dumb.
2:10
S2: It's possible to be evil as well as dumb, for example. Um,
2:15
S2: and dumber than we thought. Yes. Because as these two
2:18
S2: wars drag on the Putin now in, it's Putin's war,
2:23
S2: now in its fifth year invading Ukraine. And Donald Trump,
2:27
S2: now in his fourth month in Iran or attacking Iran,
2:31
S2: at least exposes their failures more glaringly day by day.
2:37
S2: They're both they both find themselves in the peculiar situation
2:40
S2: of having started these wars and I should say unprovoked.
2:45
S2: They invented threats which did not exist even by the
2:49
S2: standards of their own governments. Evidence, having invented threats, chosen
2:55
S2: these wars, which I've called wars of hubris, are driven
3:00
S2: by that overweening pride and arrogance, heady with their own
3:05
S2: self-importance and infallibility. Having done all of that, inflicted tremendous costs,
3:12
S2: just terrible costs in in death and suffering, not to
3:16
S2: mention the economic costs. And, of course, Trump's war in Iraq,
3:20
S2: adding to global inflation and creating a fuel and fertilizer
3:24
S2: shortage worldwide. They're not achieving what they sought out to achieve.
3:30
S2: Beyond that, it's hard to believe just these compounding levels
3:34
S2: of incompetence and failure that these two leaders of supposedly
3:40
S2: great countries have been committing, but they don't seem to
3:44
S2: be able to win or to extricate themselves. They are
3:49
S2: stuck in these wars. Trump, in these endless claims that
3:52
S2: he's got negotiations underway. The war's almost over. The Iranians
3:56
S2: are making concessions only to be contradicted by the Iranians
4:00
S2: and Trump contradicting himself within a day or two. And
4:03
S2: then you've got Putin, a war. And both of these
4:05
S2: wars were supposed to be quick and decisive. Remember, both
4:08
S2: of them said that these wars would take days or weeks,
4:11
S2: and now it's months and years. And when you compare
4:15
S2: that to the massive costs they're paying, and Russia alone,
4:18
S2: for example, is estimated to have suffered 1.3 million casualties.
4:24
S2: That's wounded as well as dead in this war of hubris.
4:28
S2: And the Ukrainians don't put out estimates, but probably somewhere
4:34
S2: some tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been killed,
4:38
S2: as well as probably about 20,000 Ukrainian civilians, completely innocent civilians.
4:45
S2: And the fact that in both cases, both Trump and
4:48
S2: Putin are degrading their own country's credibility internationally, Alienating their allies,
4:56
S2: encouraging their enemies. I mean, it's an unbelievable compounding level
5:05
S2: of as that word, again, dumb. One of the symptoms
5:10
S2: of hubris is a refusal to take advice or to
5:13
S2: listen to experts. And that's a characteristic of both Vladimir
5:18
S2: Putin and Donald Trump in starting and conducting these wars.
5:23
S2: For example, we know that Donald Trump was told by
5:26
S2: his topmost military official of the risk, repeatedly told of
5:31
S2: the risk that the Iranians could close the Strait of Hormuz.
5:34
S2: He went ahead anyway without a plan for what to
5:37
S2: do about it if they did. And of course, that's
5:38
S2: precisely what's happened. So Americans are now complaining about their
5:42
S2: high gasoline prices. The whole world is paying a, you know,
5:48
S2: unnecessarily expensive and sometimes ruinous prices for diesel, for fertilizer,
5:55
S2: for building supplies, for all sorts of things. Global inflation
5:58
S2: has been pushed up. Global growth has gone down. Poor
6:00
S2: countries in particular are suffering horribly. Fuel rationing, some food shortages.
6:05
S2: I mean, it's just an appalling level of reckless incompetence.
6:11
S2: Vladimir Putin was warned by his by his senior military
6:17
S2: officers not to take the course he's taking. It beggars belief, Samantha,
6:23
S2: that these are supposedly great powers. They really just put
6:27
S2: so much priority on their own brilliance, their own confidence,
6:32
S2: and the size of their armouries, rather than the cleverness
6:37
S2: of their strategies that they've blundered into these dreadful situations
6:43
S2: where they're neither winning nor withdrawing.
6:46
S1: The stupidity that you're pointing to on, you know, on
6:49
S1: behalf of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, are they are
6:53
S1: they just way dumber than other than other leaders? You know,
6:56
S1: because people can think of other catastrophic failures in in wartime.
7:00
S1: You know, many would argue that America going into Vietnam
7:02
S1: was just horrifically stupid, obviously led to, you know, untold
7:07
S1: death and, and destruction. Are they up there or is
7:10
S1: this does this surpass perhaps even even that? I mean,
7:13
S1: that obviously has gone went for much longer than this
7:15
S1: has so far. But are we talking about something that
7:18
S1: might go down in history in terms of the stupidity here.
7:21
S2: Well, that would be a high bar to jump, but
7:24
S2: I think they're certainly in contention for the record books,
7:27
S2: certainly because it's now in its fifth year. The Russian
7:30
S2: war will go into that category. And the Trump the
7:35
S2: Trump effort is remarkable for his inability and the collective
7:39
S2: US inability to learn from its own mistakes. So you
7:43
S2: mentioned the Vietnam War, the Afghanistan war, the Iraq War,
7:49
S2: none of which the U.S. won. The U.S. did not win,
7:53
S2: hasn't won a major war since since World War Two,
7:56
S2: and yet continues to repeat the same mistakes, but also
8:00
S2: in this war. Trump's war against Iran has failed to
8:04
S2: learn from Putin's mistake in Ukraine. He also failed. Assuming
8:10
S2: that the size of your arsenal is the all important
8:15
S2: and decisive factor. Assuming that a quick, decisive strike at
8:19
S2: the outset is also determinative, which it's not in wars
8:22
S2: and we are learning there are no quick wars anymore
8:25
S2: in the 21st century. These guys did not plan for
8:29
S2: a strategy beyond the first few days, it seems, and
8:33
S2: that's certainly the evidence that's accumulated on the on the battlefield.
8:37
S2: So it's a failure to learn. And you know, that
8:42
S2: old definition, if you keep doing the same, making the
8:45
S2: same mistake, expecting a different outcome, it's the definition of insanity.
8:48
S2: or in this case, just, I think, an unbridled hubris,
8:52
S2: which is which is actually a psychological disorder, a personality disorder.
8:57
S2: And I think these two men share it amongst their
9:00
S2: many other shared and attractive qualities.
9:07
S1: After the break.
9:08
S2: What XI Jinping is doing is much, much shrewder. I
9:11
S2: think it's brilliant.
9:19
S1: Speaking of potential personality disorders, you point out something interesting
9:23
S1: in your column. You say that Trump has actually expressed
9:26
S1: admiration for the strategic brilliance of XI Jinping. And you
9:30
S1: point to the way that XI Jinping wields power, you say,
9:33
S1: is in stark contrast to what Vladimir Putin and Donald
9:36
S1: Trump are doing. And you point to what Trump said.
9:39
S1: He said, isn't it incredible? He told a British person
9:41
S1: during his first presidency that China has become so powerful
9:45
S1: without firing a shot. So tell us about this. Is
9:48
S1: this just another example in your mind of Trump failing
9:52
S1: to learn from, I guess, the wisdom of others, let
9:55
S1: alone not learning from his own mistakes?
9:58
S2: I thought that that remark that he made to the
10:00
S2: British Foreign Secretary at the time, at a dinner was
10:03
S2: so telling, because it showed that he could see and
10:06
S2: comprehend the success of the Chinese, the China strategy, and
10:12
S2: yet utterly failed to actually learn from it in running
10:16
S2: his own strategy in in Iran, XI Jinping. So these
10:21
S2: three powers I. I classify all three of them as
10:23
S2: predatory powers. But look at the at the different strategies
10:30
S2: and the different levels of success that they're extracting from,
10:33
S2: from these predations against other nations. XI Jinping is also
10:39
S2: seizing territory from his neighbors. China learned though. China learned from.
10:45
S2: So China attacked India in 1962. It attacked Vietnam 1979. So,
10:52
S2: by the way, there's a Chinese Communist Party propaganda line
10:55
S2: that China has never invaded, never attacked another country. And
10:59
S2: then there's Tibet as well, of course. So just keep
11:01
S2: those in mind. China absolutely has. The Chinese Communist Party
11:04
S2: party absolutely has attacked its neighbors, but learned from the
11:10
S2: India Vietnam experiences. They failed. And what XI Jinping is
11:15
S2: doing is much, much shrewder. I think it's brilliant because
11:20
S2: he has, as Trump observed, not only built the country's
11:24
S2: economic power, but by taking maritime territories, by stealth, forcibly
11:30
S2: and stealthily from his neighbors, he's managed to do that
11:34
S2: very successfully without firing a single kinetic, without firing a
11:37
S2: single bullet shot. It's definitely illegal under international law. What
11:43
S2: China is doing in the South China Sea is seizing
11:46
S2: maritime territories of its neighbours territories, also claimed by Vietnam,
11:52
S2: the Philippines, Taiwan and simply pushing its way in pushing
11:59
S2: their vessels. Their strategy, so-called salami slicing, is just continuously
12:03
S2: to push back. Rival forces, bring in their dredging machines
12:09
S2: on a mass scale, rapidly build reefs, rocks, small islets
12:14
S2: into substantial islands, and build military bases on them. It's
12:18
S2: been doing it for a decade. Every one of them
12:21
S2: has been a success for China and a loss for
12:24
S2: its neighbours. And even where countries have resisted, the Chinese
12:28
S2: have not only pushed them aside but and have used
12:31
S2: sometimes used forcible tactics water cannon, you know, ramming of
12:36
S2: other countries ships, but they haven't actually fired a shot.
12:40
S2: So they've come in just under the threshold of conventional
12:45
S2: military warfare. And to confront that, you're going to have
12:48
S2: to escalate and fire something to stop them. And nobody
12:51
S2: has wanted to cross that cross that threshold. And so
12:54
S2: China is doing it very actively, very quickly right now
12:57
S2: on another reef called the Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands,
13:02
S2: where it appears that they're very rapidly rebuilding or building
13:05
S2: this island out of the ocean. It seems to be
13:08
S2: the next military base that they're going to build. They
13:11
S2: are in the process of establishing control of the world's
13:14
S2: most valuable shipping artery through the South China Sea, where
13:19
S2: all the Big East Asian economies get their oil and
13:25
S2: energy from where they ship their exports. It's Australia's main
13:29
S2: commercial lifeline for imports and exports. Doing all this without
13:35
S2: having to fire a shot. There are no speeches in
13:37
S2: the UN. Nobody is mounting an expedition to try and
13:41
S2: halt this. You have to give him credit. It is brilliant.
13:45
S1: It is brilliant. And I guess I want to ask
13:46
S1: you whether we might see an imminent future in which
13:50
S1: the likes of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump actually learn
13:53
S1: from what XI Jinping is doing. And, you know, people
13:56
S1: in the defense industry and in the white House, are
13:59
S1: there any murmurings that Trump might ever sort of follow
14:02
S1: up on what he's observed as this being genius and
14:05
S1: actually adopt that sort of strategy?
14:09
S2: Well, he two, two things, um, that personality type is
14:15
S2: reluctant to admit a mistake and maybe he won't. Uh,
14:19
S2: but we do know that he's eyeing Cuba next. We
14:24
S2: do know that the American strategy so far with trying
14:27
S2: to bring Cuba under control, despite 90 years of failure
14:32
S2: is is different. It is a non-kinetic. It's an economic
14:37
S2: embargo choking off, uh, I mean, they've been putting economic
14:42
S2: embargo on Cuba since it was since the revolution. But
14:45
S2: the current oil embargo that Trump has imposed on Cuba
14:49
S2: is effective. It's brought the Cuban economy close to a standstill.
14:55
S2: It's inflicting a lot of suffering on the people. But
14:58
S2: it has really hurt the power of the state. And
15:02
S2: if Trump wants to take control of Cuba, the signs
15:07
S2: are that he's doing it more indirectly and and less kinetically.
15:11
S2: Should I say than than the war in Iran? So
15:14
S2: maybe maybe he is capable of learning.
15:18
S1: Okay. Well, it'll be interesting to see if that eventuates.
15:20
S1: But in the meantime, do you think that things with
15:23
S1: Trump and Putin might be about to get a bit dumber?
15:26
S1: Because just on Tuesday, Donald Trump announced his new appointment
15:30
S1: for the director of National Intelligence. And this is Bill Pulte.
15:34
S1: He's heir to a homebuilding empire, but he's got absolutely
15:37
S1: no national security Expertise. And then on Vladimir Putin's side,
15:42
S1: just as this episode goes to air, his alternative to
15:46
S1: Davos is launching. So he is going to be hosting
15:50
S1: far right conspiracy theorist Candace Owens and also manosphere influencers
15:55
S1: and alleged rapists and human traffickers, Andrew and Tristan Tate.
16:00
S1: So that's not going in the right direction, is it? Hartcher.
16:03
S2: Well, it depends on the outcome you're seeking. If Vladimir Putin,
16:07
S2: with that lot, is seeking to showcase America's best and finest,
16:13
S2: then he's going to have a lot of fun with that,
16:14
S2: I think.
16:15
S1: Yeah.
16:16
S2: If Donald Trump's pursuit of a totally unqualified person to
16:20
S2: lead a major national responsibility is designed to produce better policy,
16:25
S2: then that's not going to work. But if his if
16:28
S2: his aim is simply to assert personal control, demand political
16:35
S2: loyalty from his appointees, and assert personal control over the
16:38
S2: functions of the US state. He'll have more luck with that.
16:42
S2: The outcomes, of course, aren't necessarily helpful or pretty for
16:47
S2: the US. For example, he's appointed lots of completely unqualified people.
16:52
S2: Pete Hegseth, for example, defense secretary. His qualification for that
16:56
S2: was that he was a Fox News presenter. He seems
16:58
S2: to think that's still his current job from the way
17:00
S2: he conducts himself. But he has to bear a lot
17:04
S2: of the responsibility for this disastrous war. That's the price
17:07
S2: you pay for having unqualified people in your in your
17:10
S2: top jobs.
17:12
S1: Well, thanks, Peter, as always, it's always good to hear
17:14
S1: your insights.
17:16
S2: Pleasure, Samantha.
17:27
S1: In other news today, Pauline Hanson's One Nation now has
17:31
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