Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Acre Hedge | Prediction Markets For Farm Risk

Transcript

AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Acre Hedge | Prediction Markets For Farm Risk · AG Bull

• 0:10
  SPEAKER_02: The grain markets have a lot to digest, a lot of information coming in, a lot of different weather events to sort of figure out what to do with.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: It seems like they've been willing to do so rather thoughtfully today, carefully, even I might argue.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_02: Livestocks were volatile, and I'm afraid the hogs have forfeited the effort award with today's price performance.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_02: We're talking prediction markets today, and I predict it will be a fascinating conversation.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_02: From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull in Kansas City, USA, your pal Davis Michelson here, the handsome newsman for Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: Glad to have you along, everyone.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: I'm really looking forward to today's conversation because it's something I don't know a whole lot about.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: I want to get to the bottom of it.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: I've got the uh I've got the whole crew here from Acre Hedge, and we're just going to see what their deal is, what they're uh what they're up to.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_02: I think you'll find it very interesting as well.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_02: Uh we got a crop condition report, we got a daily sale.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: We'll go over the tail of the tape.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: It's uh 1 p.m.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_02: Central time.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_02: So 1 o'clock in the afternoon, not quite settled in the markets.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_02: So we'll we'll pop up kind of some rough approximations.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_02: I'll read them down for you when we get there, but just just keep that in mind.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_02: We're at 1 p.m.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_02: Central Time.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_02: Markets are are still open.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_02: And so we'll have to just sort of speculate, I guess, on where they may close.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_02: I'll tell you where we're at when we get there.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_02: Let me first direct you to agbull.com.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_02: Check out all of the lavish services that we provide and all the information.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_02: Take your marketing by the horns with AgBull Intel.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_02: Visit Agbol.com or call 1855-737 farmagbull.com.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_02: You won't be disappointed.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: Before I bring in the crew from Acre Hedge, let's deal with some housekeeping here.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_02: We had a crop condition report come out.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_02: Corn and soybeans rated good to excellent are falling behind last year, actually, by by a fair bit there.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: Same time last year, corn was at 71% good to excellent.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_02: This year 60% as of this week.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_02: Soybeans, similar type of deal, 68% last year.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_02: This year, this week, rated good to excellent, 61%.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_02: Spring wheat conditions slightly better than year ago, with harvest well underway and winter wheat harvest all but wrapped up at 96% complete.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_02: That compares to 94% complete the same week last year.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_02: The export sales continue.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_02: Private exporters reported another soybean sale to China for the 26-27 marketing year.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_02: This one to the tune of 136,000 metric tons.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_02: We had a pretty good week in the bean daily sales last week, and it looks like they're going to continue into this week.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_02: And with that, let's get to the tail of the tape.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_02: Corn and wheat were mildly lower to start the day.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_02: As soybean futures built on yesterday's aggressive gains.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_02: Cattle futures were higher.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_02: Lean hogs under moderate pressure in early session trade.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_02: Before I tell you where we're at right now, at uh what is it, 108 Central Time?
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_02: Let me mention Plus 500 T4 software.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_02: It's what I'll be using when I read these quotes off to you.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_02: Me and my whole squad use plus 500 T4 software for real-time quotes and a host of handy features.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_02: Me and my crew, trust plus 500.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_02: That's almost kind of hard to say.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_02: Trust plus 500.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_02: Plus 500, everybody.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_02: Let's go over there now and look at December corn.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_02: Presently, now we're not settled.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if I need to keep saying that or not.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_02: I just want to be clear.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_02: Not settled yet.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_02: December corn down one and three quarters presently at 487 and three quarters.
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_02: Soybeans look like they're trying to eke out.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_02: And oh, just dropped a quarter set here as I was talking.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_02: Novi beans up one penny even at one twenty, excuse me, twelve and sixteen and three quarters, twelve, sixteen and three quarters presently on the Novi beans.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_02: Soybean meal is mixed mostly higher.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: Bean oil moderately lower across the board.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_02: Over to your winter wheats, December Chicago wheat down eight and a half presently, 680 and three quarters.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_02: December KC wheat down 13 and three quarters.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_02: Now 14.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_02: I feel like an auctioneer.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_02: Hey, now 14.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_02: Hey, I got 14 and a quarter, 14 and a quarter, 757 and three quarters on your December KC wheat.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_02: Over to the livestocks now with the click of a button.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_02: I've got October feeder cattle,$1.42.5 higher,$326.77.5.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_02: Looks like that's not quite settled just yet.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_02: The October fat cattle,$219.15.37.5 higher presently.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_02: And the October Lean Hogs down$1.80.72 and one half at last report.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_02: All right, now with that, I'm gonna bring in my guests here in just a moment from their website.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_02: That is focused on farmer and ag related topics.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_02: That being said, let's learn about it from Ray Chung, Todd Larson, and Zoe Kent from AcreHedge.com.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: Acrehedge.com.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_02: You can also find Acre Hedge on Insta and Facebook.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_02: Hey gang, glad to have you all here with us today.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_02: I've got questions for all of you.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_02: So uh uh good afternoon.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to Ag Squawk of the afternoon.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_02: Appreciate you taking the time.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, thanks a lot, Davis.
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, thanks for having us on.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: And uh yeah, we're we're uh all about prediction markets for farmers and agriculture.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, far away with any questions you got.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_02: Excellent, excellent.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_02: I I do have some questions.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_02: And Ray, as I understand, you're sort of the brains behind the outfit.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: You're the the founder, the the the guy with the big idea.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_02: Is that is that fair to say?
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_02: I know you've got Todd and Zoe right there with you.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_02: Todd is nodding along.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_02: I hope I haven't just stepped in it here, but Ray, I I think you're I think you're you we would call you the founder, wouldn't we?
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_01: That is correct.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I started Acre Hedge.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: Actually, we we started it a couple years ago.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, you know, we tried to do some other things like try to do some risk management software for farmers.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: And uh actually Todd had joined in 2025 when we were still focused on that.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: And also Zoe, her first uh project that she worked on with us was based on that.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: But then uh we figured out pretty quickly that it's more than just risk management software, right?
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_01: There's a lot of companies out there offering different solutions, it's the risks themselves, right?
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_01: If we can help farmers actually manage or hedge risks that aren't otherwise easily hedged, right?
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Things that aren't traded on exchanges, things that aren't covered by crop insurance, then that could be extremely useful and important.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: And so that's that's where we are today.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_01: So we pivoted to prediction markets, and uh it's been a great ride so far.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_02: I'm a big fan of keeping plenty of diverse tools in one's marketing toolbox.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_02: And it feels like maybe what you've done is to identify some holes and just offer up some other tools, maybe some some different, almost non-traditional ways of managing at least some risk on the farm.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_02: Am I am I zeroing in on it, Ray?
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: That's exactly right, Davis.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: So uh, you know, every farmer has crop insurance, right?
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: Especially if they finance their operations, they just have to have it.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_01: But crop insurance is uh typically based on whole farm risk.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of the risks are also calculated based on what happens in the area, you know, what happens to your neighbors.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: It doesn't necessarily get impacted directly by what happens to you or what happens in a certain field, right?
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: And the the great thing about prediction markets, about the event market, is that we can actually craft a question that is much more specific for the risks farmers can face.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: You know, examples are like diseases.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_01: We've already had an event market regarding screw worms.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: Also, to run through a list of things that aren't readily traded.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we have current event markets on diesel fuel prices, anhydrous ammonia, potash.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the list is really it can be very, very long.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_02: Let's I'm curious how you got here.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_02: And then Todd, I'm gonna throw a similar question at you.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_02: And of course, of course, Zoe, I'm anxious to speak with you as well.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know if you remember, but you and I talked on a uh a different podcast once before, Zoe.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_02: We'll get to all that later.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_02: But Ray, what's your background?
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_02: Where do what were you doing before all of this?
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, sure.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_01: Well, my background actually, so currently I still am the owner and operator of the largest processor of edamame in the U.S.
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: And so actually I I work with farmers and we grow edamame, which is a soybean.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: It's a special variety of soybean.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: We help them harvest it and then we package it and sell it to big retailers, including some like Whole Foods, for example, is one example.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_01: I've been doing that for about 15 years, and that gave me a great opportunity to work pretty deeply with farmers to understand what their real issues are.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: And before that, I was on Wall Street, so I worked at a couple of big investment banks.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: And one at one bank in particular, I was in a team that looked at financial innovations.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_01: So we looked at catastrophe bonds, we looked at binary options, and you know, binary options is just really what a prediction market is today.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_02: That's some pretty heady, heady stuff, Ray.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_02: But I I guess that helps me put together if you started at Wall Street and then basically you're a a could I call you a produce produce purveyor on one side, and bringing those those two items together to try and help out farmers manage risk.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_02: That that makes a ton of sense.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate that.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_02: Todd, Todd Larson, let's talk to you about your background a little bit, your role there.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_02: How did you get involved?
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, so I'm the CTO, the chief technology officer at Acre Hedge.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_03: And so that means I've built the platform and I'm responsible for all the technology pieces.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_03: And you know, my background is I'm from a farming community in Nebraska originally.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_03: And then I my tech career took me to Chicago and I worked at Groupon back in the day.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_03: I don't know if anyone ever bought any Groupons, but that was an amazing ride where I got to see what good looked like at scale when we were going public there.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_03: And then I got the startup itch, and so I joined a fintech company called Digit.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_03: This was around 2012.
• 11:01
  SPEAKER_03: We're one of the first neo banks, and our mission was to automate financial health.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_03: And so we were a product for consumers.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_03: It was a mobile app that would automate your savings and your bill pay and your investment.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_03: And then, you know, that then led me from the West Coast to northwest Arkansas.
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_03: You know, my parents had retired down here, and I wanted my family to be near them.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_03: And then the community here, the startup community, introduced Ray and I.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_03: And because of my fintech background and my farming origins in Nebraska, it was a really great full circle moment uh to work on this.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_03: And so it's been a lot of fun to get it live.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_03: Um, you know, we've been launched since I think it was April 23rd, is that right?
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Star Prediction Market uh launched about almost three months ago, I guess, right?
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_03: So that's what led me here to where we are today.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_02: Would you consider yourself a risk taker?
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_02: Are you a risk taker?
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_03: Absolutely.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_03: You know, I'm from a small town originally, and so most of my peers are still there.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_03: I love to, you know, leave and go take that first risk of seeing what was out there.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_03: But then startups in general are a massive risk, right?
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_03: So I would argue much of my career has been, you know, taking big risks, but you know, having big payoffs too.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_03: You know, we ended up exiting Digit to Opportune, which is a public bank.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_03: And so I'm looking forward to the next big thing that we can do with Acre Edge.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_02: Does do you still have family roots back on the farm in in Nebraska?
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_03: No, so my my family actually ran the country radio station in town.
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_03: So I worked on a farm.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_03: Um so that was kind of we had a different the family business was a little bit different, but they have since moved down to northwest Arkansas too, where we are here in in uh Fayetteville.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_03: And it's kind of become a magnet for the whole family.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_03: It's a great place to live down here.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_03: We love it.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, that's cool.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_02: That's cool.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, and let's go to Zoe Kent as well.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_02: Zoe, you and I have spoken before.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_02: I think Guillermo may have a picture of me singing to you and your poor father on that uh on that podcast previously.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_02: There it is.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yes.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_02: I probably won't sing today.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_02: I can tell you I don't have my piano set up at the moment, but it's right here, it's close.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_02: So try not to inspire me if you can help it.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_02: But Zoe, when you and I were talking before, part of our conversation was about words.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_02: Now, you're a college-educated woman, went to Ohio State University, the Ohio State University, and I asked you about the term farm fluencer, and you sort of reluctantly said, Well, yeah, I think I guess that's what I am.
• 13:31
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_02: I'm curious how how you fit in the mix here with Acre Hedge.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so I originally got connected through Ohio State.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: I was in the Ag Business Club with a friend who actually grew some edamame with Ray.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: So they were looking for someone to make some videos for their kind of first iteration of Acre Hedge, and they connected me and we started working together.
• 13:55
  SPEAKER_00: And the the partnership was very natural.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: And when they pivoted into this prediction market, it was really interesting and exciting to me.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: I've been doing the social media thing since 2021, and I've made some really great connections with other people in this farm fluencing community.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm really excited to kind of pivot a little bit into a role where I'm connecting myself and the company with other ag influencers to get the word out there.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_02: No, I I already mentioned Acre Hedge on Insta and Facebook.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_02: Are you is it farm with Zoe?
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_02: Are you have you still got that going?
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: Where can we find that if we're if we're yeah, we're still posting that anywhere.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'm all over the place.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, yeah.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_02: Good.
• 14:39
  SPEAKER_02: I hope the cross pollination is all right there.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_02: So so as a as a part of this team here, how long have you been involved?
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, since very early this winter, we started having conversations, and I'm really excited because I can go to Todd and Ray and be like, hey, this is what's happening on my farm.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: These are the things that I'm worried about, and we can kind of make prediction markets that are really relevant to what I have going on in my fields.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_02: I in fact, I've got the website up over here, and one of them included will at Farm with Zoe plant her corn by May 23rd.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_02: How did that come out?
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_02: How did it turn out?
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_02: Did you make it?
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we did.
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now, unfortunately, there was some replanting involved after that, but that was all part of our terms.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: Because with our event markets, we want to be very black and white on exactly what those outcomes are.
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: But while we have a lot of these very relevant markets for farmers, we're also doing some of these fun events.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: That one came up about really naturally because people are always asking me, you know, as we get into the season, they're like, well, how long does it take?
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_00: When are you going to be done?
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: And as a farmer, you're like, well, I know I can plant this much in a day, but it's kind of all up to my equipment functioning well and what we're what we're getting for rain and stuff like that.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: So it was really fun to be able to take my audience along and get them able to invest in what was happening on my farm.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, very good.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_02: Very good.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_02: Well, with that, let me let me throw back to uh to Ray and Todd because looking at your website and you've got FAQs, you've got uh all sorts of stuff on here, great information and a way that that interested parties can get involved.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_02: But one word that keeps coming up, and Ray, maybe you can help me with this.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_02: Over at Acre Hedge.com, you talk about stakes.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_02: Gain a stake in Midwestern ammonia prices for the period, gain a stake in potash price, gain a stake.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: Can you help me get my head around what a stake is?
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_02: And what do you mean by that?
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, exactly.
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that's a great question, Davis.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: The the whole point of what we're trying to do is we're trying to give folks an opportunity to invest, right?
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: Stake is another way of saying an investment, right?
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: As opposed to just a straight up, you know, kind of what prediction markets, a lot of them are doing now, which is essentially just you know sports betting.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: And stake is closer to investment, right?
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: We we think that it's important that there are a lot of folks out there who aren't necessarily farmers themselves.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, let's just take a look at Zoe's followers, for example.
• 17:17
  SPEAKER_01: She has almost 700,000 followers.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: There aren't 700,000 farmers in the United States, right?
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_01: So the the folks who are interested in farming and farming topics, we want to give them the ability to put some money into the business and to actually get a return, you know, and that's that's what we mean about gaining a uh a stake in, say, ammonia prices or anything like that, you know.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_01: And on the other side of the of the of the market might be a farmer who wants to hedge their fertilizer costs, or there could be a weather event that they want to hedge against, or even like a disease, right, that they want to hedge against.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so we're just trying to bring together the parties of on the one hand, you know, people who want to invest in farming and invest in the risks of farming, and on the other side, the farmers who want to actually hedge those risks.
• 18:04
  SPEAKER_02: So talk to me.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_02: You you mentioned you mentioned betting sites, and I know that what you're doing is different, but I I wonder if you can help me sort out the difference between just straight up wagering and acre hedges, not for profit pool system, I think is what you call it on your website.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely, yeah.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_01: Well, we're running our event markets as nonprofit fantasy pools right now because we're, you know, it we're just testing a lot of these markets, we're testing the concepts.
• 18:35
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's important that everyone knows that we're not collecting commissions, we're not collecting revenue, and Zoe and other influencers who are involved in the markets don't actually collect any revenue.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_01: And so that's that's a key difference uh between us and say a calcare polymarket.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_01: Now, when it comes to betting, right, the the main thing about betting is that you know the it's kind of a zero-sum game, right?
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: So somebody wins, somebody loses, and the house takes, you know, a cut of it, or a house might even have an edge, right, when it comes to like sports betting.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we're trying to change that model.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, when we get into farming topics, on the other side of the trade is somebody who actually gets a benefit from investing in either the risk or hedging against the risk, right?
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_01: So that you know, it's a financial product just like Calci or Polymarket, but the purpose of this is more for people to be able to hedge and transfer risk instead of just pure betting.
• 19:31
  SPEAKER_01: Having said all that, of course, Davis, it wouldn't be fun if there weren't if there wasn't some fun topics as well.
• 19:37
  SPEAKER_01: So we actually did do an event market on caution flags for the NASCAR Iowa Cup race that just happened a couple weeks ago, and that actually turned into a pretty fun, fun event market, a very, very active event market.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, it's a mixture, but our main emphasis is we're trying to be a useful tool for farmers to use to hedge their risks.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_02: I've been accused of broadcasting here from the Ultimate Man Cave in Kansas City.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_02: And the first time Tommy Grassoffi came down here, he said, geez, you should open up a speakeasy down here.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_02: It it sounds sort of akin to you've got, let's just say, a friendly poker game going on with your buddies.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_02: At at what point I have to ask, and I don't mean to get heavy, and and maybe Todd, you you can offer insight on this.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_02: I don't I'm not sure who to ask.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_02: At what point do regulators get involved with something like this?
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, okay.
• 20:34
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe maybe I'll take a crack at that.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, yeah, of course, you know, and our our goal actually, our near to immediate or intermediate term goal is to actually get regulated because it's important because eventually we're gonna have to collect revenue, right?
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_01: So in order to collect revenue, we have to be regulated.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: The current regulation is CFTC designated contract market, and there's a fairly clear path for us to get there.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: So that is something we're exploring, and it'll probably happen towards the end of next year.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: But anyway, but until then, we are running it as a nonprofit fantasy pool so that we don't have any issues.
• 21:11
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, okay, very good.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_02: I'm I work for Nesvik Trading ultimately as the parent company of Ag Bull, and we've got a compliance guy.
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_02: I wonder if dude, what questions do clients have for you folks when it comes to compliance?
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_02: Is that an issue that ever comes up?
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think the biggest question that folks have is really about tax treatment.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: So if they wind up winning quite a lot, then what do they do?
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: And our answer is, well, you know, we're not tax advisors, so it's whatever you would do yourself.
• 21:47
  SPEAKER_01: If, say, yeah, like let's say you were playing 510 no limit with your buddies, right?
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_01: And you won a bunch of money, what do you do?
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_01: It's really up to you, right?
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_01: What you do, and so we we don't we're not providing any advice on that.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: But but as far as like security and all these other things, I think well, Todd has really put his expertise to use.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: Here and uh designed a really great system that that is that has held up extremely well.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Todd, that that does kind of bring up questions in my mind.
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_02: You have quite a bit of pretty good experience, I would imagine, with internet security and with the exchange of funds and things like that from your previous work, don't you?
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_03: Yeah, I mean, between my background in e-commerce at Groupon and then the FinTech startup digit that I mentioned, you know, this has been these kinds of platforms has been my entire focus, my whole career.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_03: So, you know, what we've done is built a web-based platform to be able to reach as many people as possible as we launch.
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_03: So it's something that's accessible on any device, whether you're on Android or iOS.
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_03: And, you know, we follow all of the standard banking, bank level best practices when it comes to how security is approached, the services that we use, you know, uptime and redundancy.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_03: So, you know, because of my background, we're essentially following the playbook of what best practices are for this kind of a system.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_02: I I want to ask this question a little bit gently, if I can.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_02: Are there unique challenges from a tech standpoint dealing so heavily with ag folks, with farm folks?
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_03: I would say it's more of a marketing question rather than a technical question as far as how we approach the ag world.
• 23:29
  SPEAKER_03: And I think that's a big part of why, you know, Zoe's a part of the team, right?
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_03: And the rest of our, you know, uh influencer partners that we're working with.
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_03: So I think it's more about, you know, the trust that we've been able to build thus far and the trust that we're continuing to build in ag specifically that gives us an edge over the more like kind of general purpose platforms like Calci or whatever you might think of.
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I think if if I can add to that, I think it's it really is a you know a trust issue, right?
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: So, you know, CalShi and Polymarket, I I know that they have come out with some topics that may be a little bit ag adjacent, but you know, the the way they define those markets, they can sometimes be a little bit vague about the definitions, and then so a market might settle one way when it really should settle the other way.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_01: And so we can't do that with farmers, right?
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_01: Farmers already have enough challenges, right?
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: We they they don't want to have to worry if they're gonna be using Acre Hedge to potentially hedge some of their risks, they need to feel totally confident that there's not gonna be any dispute at the end of the uh at the end of the uh the term.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_02: Very good.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_02: Zoe, this is boy, this is a a pretty big idea.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_02: How have you coming from the from the influencer side?
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_02: How have you found ways that you can kind of synergize these two ideas?
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_02: Like maybe skills that you already had you were able to throw over to Acre Hedge's way and and vice versa.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_02: It feels like it's it's good to have influencers.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_02: It's good for it's it's good for the company and it's good for the influencers.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_02: So it's exposure for everybody.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_02: Am I looking at that right?
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
• 25:07
  SPEAKER_00: I I think it's a great opportunity in in many different ways.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I would kind of adding to that conversation about getting farmers on board, you know, there's a lot of farmers who only sell grain cash, you know, they just start across the scale and that's it.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: They don't do any level of hedging.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't expect every farmer to hop into prediction markets super quickly.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's kind of just for that farmer who understands hedging in different ways and has like a robust portfolio.
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_00: But I'll also say like it's a lot less intimidating than getting your own trading account.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_00: You don't have to do any, you know, quantity of size.
• 25:45
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you can you can bet as much or as little as you want.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_00: Whereas, like, you know, if I'm hedging hedging grain, you know, it needs to be 5,000 bushels.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: So it is accessible to farmers in that way that you can really have a large range there.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_00: And they're very straightforward markets with like this, the very specific language of, you know, if you put your money on this side, this is the potential outcome.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_01: It's yes or no questions, isn't it?
• 26:10
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 26:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_01: And actually, David said, just to add an additional point to that, I think the the great thing from a trader perspective, right?
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_01: For somebody who wants to come into Acre Hedge to trade these event markets, it gives the traders the opportunity to more specifically trade the event or the factor that's affecting the markets, right?
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_01: So we had a couple of contracts, for example, already that traded the acreage reports, the USDA acreage reports in June.
• 26:39
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_01: And they may or may not move markets.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_01: They typically do, especially if there's a surprise, right?
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_01: But as a trader, you could actually go in and say, well, I just want to trade that I bet that the acreage is going to come up a little bit more than in on the June report than it was in March, right?
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_01: During uh during the planting expectations, right?
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: So we can be very, very specific in the factors that traders can trade.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, that's really that's really interesting.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_02: Zoe's right, far too many people just simply rely on the income from that scale ticket, just taking it, taking the grain to town, and that's that's how we get paid for farming, and there are so many ways.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_02: This brings me back to my my toolbox concept, just an just another tool in the toolbox.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_02: Is this designed to be more simple, more accessible than futures and options?
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_02: Because I also understand that futures and options can be very, very, I mean, obviously risky.
• 27:36
  SPEAKER_02: Number one, number two, very confusing.
• 27:39
  SPEAKER_02: It's a it's a deep dive.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_02: And I I feel like maybe you've got in your head to offer something as a lighter alternative that is more accessible to everyday folks.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think Zoe hit the nail on the head.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_01: You know, uh the University of Illinois did some research last year actually that showed that only 12% of row crop farmers in Illinois actually have their own trading accounts, right?
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: Have their own futures and options accounts.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: And it's because it is a pretty heavy lift.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_01: You have to have some focus on it every day if you're gonna do it.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: They're margin calls, right?
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_01: So you have to be pretty well capitalized to do it.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_01: But with prediction markets, you can scale it as big or small as you want.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, what really the the constraint on the big side is just how big is the market?
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_01: How deep is the market?
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_01: And that's something that, you know, as the markets develop and get more participants, then it becomes deeper.
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_01: But if someone only wanted to hedge$100 worth or$1,000 worth, that's definitely something that can be done.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_02: I don't want to get too in the weeds here, but people may be wondering, and I wondered myself, you've got acrehedge.com.
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_02: Acrehedge.com is where you beloved viewer can can find out some more information.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_02: There's a terrific FAQ frequently asked questions section there.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_02: But I'm just gonna throw this out there bluntly.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_02: How do you how do you get paid?
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_02: What if what if you uh you fall on the right side?
• 29:09
  SPEAKER_02: How does all that work?
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, if you if you are correct, Davis, and you win one of the event markets, we credit your wallet with the amount.
• 29:19
  SPEAKER_01: And then if you want to withdraw, we've got a request uh button that you can press and just say withdraw funds, and we'll uh ACH the funds to you the next day.
• 29:28
  SPEAKER_01: So it's very easy.
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_02: Do you have a button for let it ride?
• 29:33
  SPEAKER_02: Let's put it on something else.
• 29:36
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, let you know, we have a lot of different options out there for folks that want to let their capital ride.
• 29:42
  SPEAKER_01: And also a feature that lets people suggest event markets too.
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: We want to have suggestions, right?
• 29:48
  SPEAKER_01: So people, you know, bring up your the risk that you face, and then if if there's enough interest from the rest of the market, then we'll set it up.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_02: Some of the some of them that are open right now, anhydrosammonia, 950 a ton or more by Friday, supt four.
• 30:03
  SPEAKER_02: Yes or no.
• 30:04
  SPEAKER_02: Potash pricing 500 a ton or more by Friday, supt four.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_02: That'll be coming right up here before too long.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_02: Here's the one that you mentioned.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_02: The U.S.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_02: diesel prices above$525 a gallon by August 24th.
• 30:17
  SPEAKER_02: There's one on the Novi Beans.
• 30:19
  SPEAKER_02: This is all very interesting stuff, and it feels it does feel very accessible.
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_02: Items that that farmers might know something about or feel like they they have a level of education, a level of skin in the game to where, yeah, maybe maybe let's uh let's give this one a try.
• 30:37
  SPEAKER_02: Acre hedge.com.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_02: Ray, I I want to make sure that we get everything said that we want to get said here.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_02: What am I missing, if anything?
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: No, I th I think this has been great, Davis.
• 30:51
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know, we're we're we're I think pioneering a very new thing.
• 30:57
  SPEAKER_01: And anytime we go into a new market, especially one with farmers and agriculture, you know, feedback is really critical, right?
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_01: So just want people to be a part of it, you know, put some money into it.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_01: And we also have a a promotion going on right now.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_01: So for first-time traders, if you deposit at least$25, we'll give you a$25 credit.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_01: Zoe 25 is the is the coupon code for that.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_01: And so we just want to get folks to come in, test it out, and give us their feedback, right?
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_01: With the feedback, we can make this a much better, much more useful site for everyone.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_01: And and also have some fun too, right?
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll probably be doing more of these uh things like the the caution flags for NASCAR racing.
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_01: That was that was actually a lot of fun.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_01: And maybe some more things with Zoe and some other influencers over the horizon too, as well.
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, that's cool.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_02: Now, is there a way that if somebody has an idea, oh well, this should be one of the one of the things that people can get stakes in?
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_02: Is there a way that people can suggest stuff?
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: Absolutely.
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there's a request market.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_01: If you look on the above the pot ash on the upper right hand side, that's right.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, folks can actually submit you know an event market idea.
• 32:10
  SPEAKER_02: Well, gang, I uh I'm gonna start heading us toward the exit here, but I do just want to say I appreciate from all three of you your willingness to take a risk here.
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_02: That it's not easy and it's not an unscary thing to do sometimes, but also you're all coming at it from sort of different angles of agriculture with the farmer in mind and anybody else who wants to pile on.
• 32:36
  SPEAKER_02: Don't don't misunderstand me, viewers, but uh I I really appreciate what you guys have got going here and the place where it's coming from.
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_02: This is good stuff.
• 32:45
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thanks so much, Davis.
• 32:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, thanks for having us, Davis.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, for sure.
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_02: But before I let you go, Zoe, I want to start with you.
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_02: If you looked out your window right now, you're over in Ohio, is that right?
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_02: You still in Ohio?
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 32:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 33:00
  SPEAKER_02: What's the weather like right now?
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_02: What's it look like today?
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, right now it's sunny, but we had an inch of rain this week.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: We had an inch of rain last week.
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's very wet here in my my neck of the woods.
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_02: Did all of that that crazy rain that slid through central Illinois and Indiana, did you wind up getting some of that as well?
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, yes.
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_00: We didn't have any high winds that took anything down, we just got the rain.
• 33:25
  SPEAKER_02: Okay, okay.
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_02: Ray and Todd, I want to ask you the same question.
• 33:28
  SPEAKER_02: What you're so you're down in, let me see if I remember northwestern Arkansas.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_02: Is that right?
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_02: You got it.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_02: How's the weather?
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_02: It's uh it's been sultry as I'm so hot.
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_02: Very, very hot.
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's over 100 degrees.
• 33:43
  unknown: Yeah.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_02: It's been hot here in KC.
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_02: We're supposed to get some storms today, and we'll see.
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe the heat will break.
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_02: It it got a little bit better over the weekend.
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_02: I'm gonna go to the National Weather Service.
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_02: Severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, are forecast to impact the central plains into the lower Missouri Valley through this afternoon.
• 34:03
  SPEAKER_02: I'm right under that little blue patch there in western Missouri.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_02: Dangerous heat persists across the southern plains.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_02: Sorry, guys, and the uh Southeast U.S.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_02: and Puerto Rico this week, and we'll return to the southwest today.
• 34:18
  SPEAKER_02: Just a couple more things before we disperse, gang.
• 34:20
  SPEAKER_02: I'd like to uh see if I can if I can peak some mild interest, some items of mild interest from history today.
• 34:29
  SPEAKER_02: It's August 18, it's 1774.
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_02: Meriwether Lewis, American soldier, explorer, and politician, was born in 1952 from the Nobody Puts Baby in a corner file.
• 34:45
  SPEAKER_02: Patrick Swayze, American actor and dancer.
• 34:48
  SPEAKER_02: It said American actor and dancer was born also in, of course, Roadhouse, which is one of my favorite movies.
• 34:56
  SPEAKER_02: And finally in 1920, we've got a picture of my grandfather, Ralph G.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_02: Tucson.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_02: And here's here's something weird.
• 35:04
  SPEAKER_02: I'm still to this day, he passed far, far too young.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_02: He's he's no longer with us.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_02: He left us in 1999, actually.
• 35:13
  SPEAKER_02: I know I still to this day don't know what his middle name actually is.
• 35:18
  SPEAKER_02: Ralph G.
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_02: Tucson is all I know.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_02: In 1920, the 19th amendment to the United States Constitution was ratified, guaranteeing women's suffrage the right to vote.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_02: And the reason I bring him up is he's holding a picture of his parents there.
• 35:35
  SPEAKER_02: His mom is reportedly the first woman in Iowa to vote after suffrage was passed.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_02: It's in a uh I've got this article here in uh the Waterloo Cedar Falls magazine from I believe this is 1994.
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_02: No one's disputed it yet, but but my great-grandfather was on the school board, they were having a school board election, and she she got there bright and early to kind of spruce the place up to make some coffee to get everything ready.
• 36:06
  SPEAKER_02: And and old great granddad said, Well, while you're here, you might as well vote.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_02: And so she voted before before it was even open, really.
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_02: So she holds the honor, I guess, of being the first Iowan woman to vote, as as far as as far as we know.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_02: Well that's amazing.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_02: That's cool.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_02: Acrehedge.com, acrehedge.com to get more.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_02: Acre hedge on insta and Facebook.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks to uh Ray Chung, Todd Larson, Zoe Kent, great to see you.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_02: I should have you on for farming with Zoe as well.
• 36:39
  SPEAKER_02: Farm with Zoe, you can find her anywhere.
• 36:42
  SPEAKER_02: Social media is a thing.
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_02: Great to talk to you all.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_02: Best of luck, and I uh I hope to check in with you soon.
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_02: And uh, and just just for an update, Ray, you've got a you've got something really good going here.
• 36:54
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate you, brother.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you, sir.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_01: Appreciate your having us on.
• 36:58
  SPEAKER_02: Absolutely.
• 36:58
  SPEAKER_02: Well, may I also direct you to agbol.com.
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_02: You can dig deeper with Agbol Intel.
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_02: Take your marketing by the horns with Agbol.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_02: Visit Agbol.com or call 855-737 Farm for the details when we talk about tools in your toolbox.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_02: 855737 Farm.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_02: Jed Sidwell will have the morning calls bright and early tomorrow, and I'll talk uh with Jesse Allen, Farm broadcaster of some note tomorrow afternoon.
• 37:29
  SPEAKER_02: Looking forward to that one for Jed, Joe, Lindsay, and Guillermo.
• 37:33
  SPEAKER_02: It's Davis Michelson saying thanks everyone for being here.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_02: We'll be back tomorrow with more Hag Squawk.