Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / BREAKING: SpaceX Sending Humanoid Robot to Mars

Transcript

BREAKING: SpaceX Sending Humanoid Robot to Mars · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey everyone, welcome back to the Elon Musk Podcast.
• 0:05
  I'm thrilled to share some exciting news with you over the
• 0:08
  next two weeks. We're evolving.
• 0:10
  We'll be broadening our focus to cover all the tech Titans
• 0:14
  shaping our world. And with that, our show will
• 0:16
  become Stage 0. You'll still get the latest
• 0:20
  insights on Elon Musk, plus so much more, so stay tuned for our
• 0:25
  official relaunch at stage 0 coming soon.
• 0:28
  Now let's get into this episode sometime late next year, a
• 0:32
  SpaceX Starship. The rocket is taller than a 15
• 0:35
  story building and as wide as your house breaks through
• 0:39
  Earth's atmosphere and a trajectory not towards the moon
• 0:43
  or another Earth orbital test, but towards Mars.
• 0:47
  It's not carrying astronauts, though.
• 0:48
  It's not even bringing back samples or Rovers.
• 0:52
  Instead, it carries a different kind of explorer, a humanoid
• 0:55
  robot. One shaped like us, designed to
• 0:59
  think like us, and meant to pave the way for us.
• 1:02
  That raises 1 burning question though.
• 1:04
  Is a robot truly about to become the first Earthling to set foot
• 1:09
  on Mars? Now, this is more than
• 1:13
  hypothetical because of something Elon Musk posted on
• 1:16
  April 10th at 3:37 AM time that seems oddly appropriate for a
• 1:21
  message this surreal. And according to Tesla and
• 1:24
  SpaceX CEOA, Starship could hopefully depart from Mars at
• 1:28
  the end of next year with Optimus Explorer robots.
• 1:32
  That would mean if everything goes right, Tesla's humanoid
• 1:35
  robots, originally envisioned to work in factories and maybe
• 1:39
  assist with groceries or doing the dishes, could soon become
• 1:42
  pioneers of another planet. Now, this isn't some obscure
• 1:47
  concept buried in a corporate investor call.
• 1:50
  Musk made a similarly direct declaration in September of
• 1:54
  2024, saying the first Starships to Mars will launch in two
• 1:58
  years, referring to the upcoming Mars Earth transfer window in
• 2:02
  late of 2026. And these early Mars missions
• 2:07
  will be uncrewed. No people on board robotic
• 2:11
  trials, actually. Essentially, the test weather
• 2:14
  Starship can land intact on Mars, but in less than 24
• 2:19
  months. This experiment may include
• 2:22
  optimist robots leaving their metallic footprints on Mars red
• 2:25
  soil. But why does this matter?
• 2:29
  It's because it would be the first time a humanoid robot
• 2:33
  built by a private company on Earth, not a nation state space
• 2:38
  agency, becomes the vanguard of interplanetary exploration.
• 2:44
  A signal is a possible pivot point in space travel where the
• 2:48
  first explorers of a new world aren't astronauts in bulky
• 2:52
  suits, but neural network controlled machines with stiff
• 2:55
  arms and carefully calculated gates.
• 2:58
  And if successful, these missions could radically shift
• 3:02
  how humans colonize space. Instead of sending humans into
• 3:06
  the unknown, we may send robotic proxies first.
• 3:10
  Not just for scouting, though, but for building infrastructure
• 3:13
  long before any people arrive. And there's also something
• 3:18
  deeply symbolic about sending optimists.
• 3:21
  So far, the most massive payload humans have successfully landed
• 3:24
  on Mars is about the size of a compact car, namely NASA's
• 3:29
  Perseverance Rover. Starship is closer to the size
• 3:32
  of a four bedroom house. And landing a spacecraft that
• 3:36
  large on Mars is an engineering problem that remains unsolved.
• 3:40
  No one's done it. No one even knows if it's even
• 3:43
  possible yet. Not definitively.
• 3:45
  And that's part of the reason the SpaceX is launching these
• 3:48
  uncrewed missions. And having Optimus aboard is not
• 3:51
  just about science. It's a statement to other robot
• 3:55
  builders saying that we can build Optimus on Earth, it can
• 4:00
  help humans here, but we can also send it around the solar
• 4:05
  system to other planets to help us on those planets.
• 4:10
  Now. The Mars launch window opens in
• 4:12
  October of 2026. This is the period where both
• 4:15
  Earth and Mars align favorably in their orbits, allowing for a
• 4:19
  relatively efficient trip. Using current propulsion tech,
• 4:23
  travel time could be anywhere from 6 to 9 months.
• 4:26
  Anything longer becomes prohibitively fuel heavy and
• 4:29
  difficult to manage. That means a Starship launch in
• 4:32
  October of 2026 could arrive on Mars by mid 2027.
• 4:37
  An optimist could take its first Martian step shortly thereafter.
• 4:43
  Now there are some hurdles, though.
• 4:45
  Some major hurdles. For one, SpaceX still hasn't
• 4:48
  landed and recovered A Starship using its much discussed tick
• 4:53
  the catch arms on the launch tower.
• 4:56
  That's a crucial milestone for reusability and eventually for
• 4:59
  making Mars round trips feasible.
• 5:01
  And while booster landings have become routine, returning the
• 5:04
  entire Starship vehicle safely has remained elusive.
• 5:08
  All test flights so far have ended in explosions, sometimes
• 5:11
  in space, sometimes on re entry. That's expected with early
• 5:15
  hardware development. But it raises doubts about
• 5:17
  whether the timeline Musk and visions is crowded in current
• 5:20
  engineering reality. And assuming Starship is ready
• 5:23
  in time, there's another big unknown the terrain.
• 5:26
  Mars is not friendly to landing attempts.
• 5:28
  Past Mars missions from NASA have used everything from
• 5:32
  inflatable crash bags to rocket assisted sky cranes to get
• 5:36
  Rovers safely on the ground. And none of these solutions are
• 5:39
  viable at Starship scale. Even if SpaceX figures out the
• 5:42
  mechanics of deceleration in Mars thin atmosphere, there's
• 5:46
  still the issue of where to land.
• 5:48
  The Mars surface isn't a tarmac. It's unpredictable.
• 5:52
  Slopes, craters, rocks. Every inch is a new variable.
• 5:56
  The Starship would have to land with pinpoint accuracy on
• 5:58
  terrain it is never touched, possibly carrying a robot that
• 6:03
  will have to walk across the same surface.
• 6:06
  Now, Tesla's Optimus isn't exactly ready for Mars either,
• 6:09
  at least not yet. As of late 2024, the robot could
• 6:13
  barely walk up a small hill without wobbling or falling
• 6:16
  over. It's made significant progress
• 6:18
  from its early days of stilted, clumsy shuffles.
• 6:22
  Still, compared to robotics leaders like Boston Dynamics,
• 6:25
  Tesla's humanoid still looks rudimentary.
• 6:28
  The robot doesn't need to perform acrobatics on Mars.
• 6:31
  It only needs to walk down a ramp, interact with its
• 6:34
  environment, and possibly collect small rocks or explore
• 6:38
  simple surroundings now. That alone, however, would be
• 6:41
  making history. If it accomplishes even basic
• 6:45
  functions, Optimist could be the first machine of its kind to
• 6:48
  actively explore a planet. Now that sets the stage for
• 6:52
  something for more consequential things.
• 6:55
  Using robots to build Mars habitats.
• 6:58
  This would remove the initial risk for human astronauts.
• 7:01
  Letting robots install solar panels, test excavation methods,
• 7:05
  or even begin construction of pressurized structures.
• 7:08
  And understand why moment is critical.
• 7:12
  You have to understand Musk's broader Mars visions.
• 7:14
  He has said repeatedly that being a multi planetary species
• 7:18
  is essential for humanity's long term survival.
• 7:21
  The idea is that Earth is vulnerable to disasters, nuclear
• 7:25
  war, even the long term effects of climate change or even AI,
• 7:29
  and having a second base of operations could serve as just a
• 7:32
  backup. And the phrase he used in 2024
• 7:35
  was that being multiplanetary will, quote, vastly increase the
• 7:39
  probable lifespan of consciousness.
• 7:41
  In other words, if everything we know and love is wiped out here,
• 7:45
  we might have a shot someplace else.
• 7:48
  Vision isn't just about escape though, it's about expansion.
• 7:51
  Space XS long term plan as outlined by Elon is to build a
• 7:55
  self-sustaining Mars city in 20 years.
• 7:58
  That wouldn't mean permanent Martian infrastructure, regular
• 8:02
  cargo runs, and a small population of humans capable of
• 8:06
  surviving without constant Earth support.
• 8:09
  Optimus robots, upgraded with new tools and skills over the
• 8:12
  years would likely form the initial construction crew.
• 8:16
  This creates a strange dynamic, though.
• 8:18
  In theory, humans could one day arrive at Mars to find their
• 8:21
  living quarters already built by machines.
• 8:24
  Floor swept airlocks pressurized, solar panels
• 8:27
  humming. And in this scenario, Optimus
• 8:30
  isn't just a research assistant. It's a Butler, a technician, a
• 8:33
  mechanic, and maybe even a cohabitant.
• 8:37
  While that future may still be decades away, the journey toward
• 8:40
  it arguably begins with the first flight in 2026.
• 8:44
  Another crucial layer to this conversation is how these
• 8:47
  programs are tied together. Tesla is building optimists
• 8:51
  solely for factory work. Musk has said before that all of
• 8:54
  his companies, Tesla, SpaceX, Neural Link, and X, are designed
• 8:58
  to accelerate humanity's future. That's more than branding their
• 9:01
  shared technologies across each enterprise.
• 9:04
  Starship already uses Tesla battery cells for power.
• 9:07
  Storage uses software that resembles Tesla Autopilot logic.
• 9:11
  The idea of building the future is not theoretical, it's
• 9:14
  architectural, and Optimus is a pillar in an architecture now.
• 9:19
  Sending robots to Mars also allows SpaceX and Tesla to push
• 9:23
  AI and robotics in a relatively low risk environment.
• 9:26
  Failures on Mars are not life threatening in the same way as
• 9:30
  failures on Earth. The Optimus units could be
• 9:33
  trained via simulated Mars environments here on Earth and
• 9:37
  refined through incremental software updates.
• 9:40
  Now, even after launch, once they're on Mars, Tesla can push
• 9:44
  over the air updates via Starlink, a system also owned
• 9:48
  and operated by Elon and SpaceX. And that is a major development
• 9:53
  milestone for Starship. They must be able to carry
• 9:56
  Starlink hardware to Mars and deploy it autonomously.
• 9:59
  Without reliable communication, the entire robot mission is
• 10:02
  basically flying blind. But if they can land, deploy
• 10:06
  Starlink, and connect Optimist to Earth via high speed relay,
• 10:10
  we could be looking at real time robotic operations on Mars, live
• 10:14
  feeds, remote commands, and continuous status reports.
• 10:19
  There's still skeptics, of course.
• 10:20
  Some experts question whether Mars colonization is a
• 10:23
  meaningful investment when the Earth's problems remain
• 10:25
  unresolved. Others asked whether Musk's
• 10:28
  timeline is a form of wishful thinking or a way to maintain
• 10:30
  investor interest. These critics haven't slowed the
• 10:34
  program down. As of now.
• 10:36
  Construction continues the Starbase.
• 10:38
  They don't care. And the goal, according to Musk,
• 10:40
  is eventually to be launching dozens of Starships per year.
• 10:43
  He has even floated numbers as high as 50 to 100 launches by
• 10:47
  2026, depending on regulatory approval and production output,
• 10:51
  of course. And while they may seem far
• 10:53
  fetched, it's worth noting how much progress SpaceX has already
• 10:57
  made. In a few short years, they've
• 10:59
  gone from blowing up prototypes in South Texas to coordinating
• 11:02
  Oracle reentries. Starship still has a long way to
• 11:05
  go before it's Mars ready, but it's no longer a speculative
• 11:09
  concept. And meanwhile, Optimus has
• 11:11
  quietly become a larger focus at Tesla.
• 11:14
  What started as a surprise stage reveal is now a full product
• 11:17
  line. Musk has said Tesla could
• 11:19
  eventually produce millions of Optimus robots.
• 11:22
  Early models will be for internal use, working in Tesla
• 11:25
  factories, fetching parts, or even assisting in the warehouse.
• 11:30
  But Musk has stated the long term goal is for these robots to
• 11:33
  be sold to consumers and possibly leased to businesses.
• 11:37
  The robots could cost less than a small car and in theory pay
• 11:40
  for themselves by performing basic tasks.
• 11:43
  So the 2026 Mars mission may be a test for Starship's capacity,
• 11:50
  but it could also be a test for Tesla's long term robotics
• 11:55
  viability. If Optimist can survive and
• 11:58
  operate on Mars, it becomes something far more impressive
• 12:02
  than a warehouse Assistant doesn't just do your dishes or
• 12:07
  vacuum your home. It becomes a potential tool for
• 12:10
  human expansion, a product that can build explorer and endure
• 12:14
  where humans cannot. Now, if all goals go according
• 12:19
  to plan, Starship could carry the first humanoid robots to
• 12:22
  Mars in 2026. They're going to scout the
• 12:25
  terrain, they may start work on building second home for
• 12:30
  humanity, and they could bring cargo down to the surface or
• 12:34
  when people show up in the future.
• 12:39
  Hey, thank you so much for listening today.
• 12:41
  I really do appreciate your support.
• 12:43
  If you could take a second and hit this subscribe or the follow
• 12:46
  button on whatever podcast platform that you're listening
• 12:48
  on right now, I greatly appreciate it.
• 12:51
  It helps out the show tremendously and you'll never
• 12:53
  miss an episode. And each episode is about 10
• 12:56
  minutes or less to get you caught up quickly.
• 12:59
  And please, if you want to support the show even more, go
• 13:02
  to Atreoncom Stage Zero. And please take care of
• 13:07
  yourselves and each other. And I'll see you tomorrow.