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Chuck Ellis- Muddy Waters Podcast · Newsradio WGAN

• 0:00
  Welcome back to the WGAN Morning News.
• 0:02
  I'm Aaron Chadbourne sitting in for Matt.
• 0:04
  Usually on Mondays at this time, we have time to talk to Grace
• 0:07
  Curly from the Grace Curly show. Grace is off this morning for
• 0:11
  Memorial Day. So filling this segment is Chuck
• 0:14
  Ellis. He's the host of the Muddy
• 0:16
  Waters podcast, had tipped to Jeremy Mixer and that Muddy
• 0:20
  Waters tribute bringing us in. You can tell when Chuck shows up
• 0:23
  because Jeremy gets excited. And Chuck also the chair of the
• 0:27
  Cumberland County Republican Committee.
• 0:29
  Chuck, welcome back to the WJN Morning News.
• 0:31
  Good to have you. Always a fun time to be here so.
• 0:34
  So, Chuck, I want to start. I've been talking a lot about
• 0:36
  the Democrats this morning, Graham Plattner and the
• 0:38
  Democrats running for governor. And we, we can get there.
• 0:40
  And I talked about Trump in the war and, you know, that's a
• 0:42
  whole thing too. But the thing I haven't gotten
• 0:45
  time for yet is I want to kind of take stock of what's
• 0:47
  happening on the Republican side for the race for governor.
• 0:51
  There are still 7 candidates in the race.
• 0:56
  There was a poll that came out last week that seemed to suggest
• 1:00
  Bobby Charles had a commanding lead on 1st place votes and who
• 1:05
  knows the 2nd place votes, but no one had locked up 50%.
• 1:08
  But he had like a 13 point lead. And I've been making the
• 1:11
  argument that 13 points is hard to make up with ranked choice
• 1:15
  voting. What is your sense of whether or
• 1:17
  not Republicans are actually going to rank when they fill out
• 1:20
  their primary ballots? Well, it's kind of hard.
• 1:24
  It's a little bit hard for me to tell that based on the the gap
• 1:28
  between the Republicans who are involved in Maine politics, they
• 1:32
  get involved in their town and city committees.
• 1:35
  I've been surprised as so many of them are very willing to rank
• 1:39
  where. And I think a lot of it has to
• 1:41
  do with they're not being overly fond of, of, of Bobby.
• 1:47
  So there are obviously Bobby has the most individual support for
• 1:50
  first place votes according to the poll, which I do think is,
• 1:54
  is accurate. But there are a lot of other
• 1:57
  people that are, you know, paying attention that would
• 2:00
  rather have somebody else. And in that crowd, people have
• 2:04
  become, have expressed of an incredible willingness to
• 2:08
  embrace and utilize, I should say, not embrace, but utilize
• 2:12
  the ranked choice system in order to be able to ensure that
• 2:15
  that we don't end up with, with him as our nominee.
• 2:20
  And so I've been surprised to see that.
• 2:21
  But that's, you know, that's your, you know, I guess the
• 2:24
  Republican intelligence, if you want to say the Republican
• 2:27
  people who are very involved and engaged in, in Maine politics.
• 2:30
  It'll be really interesting to see how the average Maine
• 2:35
  Republican votes, especially if you include independence and
• 2:40
  whether or not they rank. I think one of the biggest
• 2:42
  challenges and the critiques that the Republican Party has
• 2:44
  historically had against ranked choice voting is how difficult
• 2:48
  it is for most people to understand.
• 2:51
  And as I, you know, tried to explain to the Cumberland County
• 2:54
  Republicans just the kind of the the basics, I think there's
• 2:59
  still people got confused even as I was going through that.
• 3:03
  So. Yeah, it's been interesting
• 3:04
  because I think Republicans until now have been largely
• 3:07
  disinterested in in learning more about how ranked choice
• 3:10
  voting works. So they just don't like it.
• 3:12
  They didn't want it, they don't want to use it.
• 3:13
  And I can't blame them for that. However, it is the system that
• 3:16
  exists. And so if you want to rank your
• 3:18
  ballot, you have the option to do that.
• 3:20
  And I, I, I say to people, you know, if you have a perid
• 3:23
  candidate and that candidate isn't likely to be one of the
• 3:25
  top 2 vote getters at the end, and you want to have a say in
• 3:28
  who the candidate is, maybe rank your ballot.
• 3:31
  And it's pretty straightforward to do.
• 3:32
  There are a lot of like, you know, nuances of how things get
• 3:35
  counted, debate depending on how you know things happen.
• 3:37
  But the big thing is that your first ploy, whoever your first
• 3:40
  choice is, you rank them first. That vote stays with that
• 3:43
  candidate as long as they're viable.
• 3:45
  And if they're ever removed from being viable, your vote gets to
• 3:49
  get moved over to another candidate that you prefer,
• 3:53
  giving you a say in who the nominee would actually be.
• 3:55
  And so it's interesting. Republicans are now learning to
• 3:57
  do that. And they're kind of, you know,
• 3:59
  they've been playing these kind of ranked choice alliance games.
• 4:02
  Yet Robert Wessels do something weird where he didn't really
• 4:07
  endorse Jonathan Bush, but he said he was ranking him.
• 4:09
  He encouraged his followers to rank him and said he'd accepted
• 4:11
  a campaign job with him, but then that he's still running and
• 4:13
  trying. I I don't understand that that
• 4:15
  but but so it basically. Job might be aggressive.
• 4:18
  Job implies pay. Well, at first it did, it was
• 4:21
  and then he, I think got some pushback and he said, Oh, I'm
• 4:24
  not being paid. But and if that's the case, like
• 4:27
  that's even more dumb. Like I could get like if you're
• 4:29
  going to go take a job working for someone that you believe in
• 4:31
  and like that's the thing to do it, but I got to be volunteer
• 4:34
  basis like fine, that's fine too.
• 4:35
  If that if that's your principles.
• 4:36
  And I think Robert Wessel, by the way, is a very principled
• 4:39
  person. I think he's an activist.
• 4:40
  I think he believes what he says.
• 4:41
  I think he does it for the by reasons.
• 4:43
  I don't think he's ever been a viable candidate.
• 4:45
  And, and, and that was the thing, one of the people at your
• 4:47
  Cumberland County meeting the other night I was talking to and
• 4:50
  she said, can you just tell me like who's actually in the race
• 4:54
  that's actually in it? And I think you can narrow it
• 4:56
  down to 4 candidates. I think the four candidates that
• 4:58
  actually could win is Bobby Charles, who is the front
• 5:02
  runner, who has, I think, a commanding lead in first place
• 5:04
  votes. You have Jonathan Bush, who I
• 5:07
  think the poll had in second place.
• 5:08
  I think that's relatively accurate.
• 5:09
  And he's been rising as he's been on the air.
• 5:12
  You can see Bobby Charles and and Jonathan Bush running
• 5:14
  negative ads against each other, which also tells you that Bobby
• 5:17
  Charles thinks that he's in second place.
• 5:18
  And then you've got somewhere below them is Garrett Mason, who
• 5:23
  has the Super PAC backing him that's been putting him on the
• 5:25
  Airways for a long time. So his name ID is up.
• 5:28
  I don't know that it has a winning message.
• 5:30
  I think their messaging has been weak, but I think that he's been
• 5:32
  everywhere and and had the benefit of being out there
• 5:35
  before anyone. He has the benefit of having run
• 5:37
  before. And then you got men Ben Midgley
• 5:39
  somewhere. I think the political chattering
• 5:41
  class has thought that he was in second place when I talked to
• 5:44
  normal people who don't like haven't been in politics before.
• 5:47
  They don't seem to know his name.
• 5:48
  So I've always been skeptical of that.
• 5:50
  And this poll was had him trailing significantly, but I
• 5:53
  think those are kind of the top 4.
• 5:55
  If there had to be a fit, that would be Owen McCarthy.
• 5:57
  But I think he's going to be in the single digits.
• 5:59
  I don't I think, I don't think he gets double digit support.
• 6:01
  I think everyone that likes Owen loves Owen.
• 6:03
  I think he's had a great performance.
• 6:05
  He's had a great introduction to politics first time running.
• 6:08
  But I just think that he it's it's too steep a hill for him to
• 6:11
  climb. And I know he he has, you know,
• 6:13
  commercials saying This is why people underestimate me.
• 6:15
  Well, that's what your commercial has to be about.
• 6:17
  It's because the conventional wisdom is that you're not that
• 6:19
  that viable. And then whoever else is in the
• 6:21
  race, like I don't think that they're going to finish.
• 6:23
  So I think it's really between 4:00 and that the Bobby Charles
• 6:27
  of it all is he's in a commanding lead and likely to be
• 6:30
  the nominee. I think the reason why some
• 6:32
  people are open to this ranking conversation is they worry.
• 6:35
  How does someone like a Donald Trump type MAGA styled candidate
• 6:40
  fair in the statewide election? I think that's legitimate
• 6:42
  concern. Kamala Harris won statewide in
• 6:45
  Maine. By 6 1/2% So and that, and
• 6:48
  that's usually like my, my concern and I'm not like
• 6:51
  endorsing or not, I'm just talking about the realities of
• 6:54
  the situation. The reality too, is that Donald
• 6:56
  Trump didn't really campaign in Maine.
• 6:58
  And so that's that's different, not coming here, not not doing
• 7:02
  the work on the ground. But we're still talking about
• 7:04
  one of the best policy presidents that we've seen, many
• 7:07
  of us have seen against the worst presidential candidate I
• 7:11
  think in U.S. history. And we still lost that by 6 1/2
• 7:15
  percent. Now you know what, what a MAGA
• 7:20
  style candidate doesn't have necessarily with their supporter
• 7:25
  with, with, you know, they don't have to compete against I think
• 7:28
  is TDs as much. Although the more you like
• 7:31
  praise Trump and talk about how excited you are to work with
• 7:34
  Trump, the more you bring out the TDs.
• 7:37
  And so I, I do think it, it creates a real challenge to win,
• 7:42
  to win a general election. And there are multiple
• 7:44
  candidates that I think fall into this category.
• 7:46
  I think David Jones is very comfortable.
• 7:48
  He said that he's running in, in the, in the MAGA lane.
• 7:50
  And so that, that is the concern that most of the people who are
• 7:53
  talking about wanting to rank have one of the concerns that
• 7:56
  they have with, with Bobby. You know, again, I, I think
• 8:01
  regardless, it's a challenging election, regardless of who we
• 8:04
  put through because of that. I do think there's an
• 8:06
  opportunity, again, regardless of who wins the primary because
• 8:09
  of the fact that most of the problems, despite the the
• 8:14
  Democrat rhetoric about Trump, most of the problems that are
• 8:19
  happening here in the state of Maine, business is closing,
• 8:21
  businesses leaving don't have anything to do with Donald
• 8:24
  Trump. They have to do with the Mills
• 8:25
  administration. And one way or another, all of
• 8:27
  these, all the candidates on the other side are, you know, are
• 8:32
  connected to, I guess the outside of Angus, I think he's
• 8:36
  not directly connected to the Mills administration.
• 8:38
  And so they, they kind of have to own that, like every single
• 8:41
  Republican across the state is running against Janet Mills.
• 8:45
  And so I, I, I think that does create a bit of an opportunity,
• 8:49
  but I still think it's going to be challenging.
• 8:50
  And I think the more, you know, in a state like Maine, the more
• 8:54
  you look like Trump, as much as it's helpful to do that in order
• 8:58
  to win the primary, you know, the harder it's going to be to
• 9:02
  win in general. I I think they would need to
• 9:04
  pivot if they do. But I think that's the concern.
• 9:07
  And I think that's what's caused people who are not Bobby
• 9:11
  supporters to, you know, decide that they're so open to ranking.
• 9:17
  And yeah, so I think that's. It's funny, the banker in Daily
• 9:21
  News has a story that they put in today's issue.
• 9:24
  The the headline is Bobby Charles is a Maine Republican
• 9:28
  frontrunner and a pariah. And they call out that when the
• 9:31
  other candidates were asked to raise their hand as to whether
• 9:34
  or not they would support him, what they would say, whether
• 9:38
  they would vote for him or not. And not a single one of them
• 9:40
  raised their hand. Do you think that Bobby Charles,
• 9:43
  you mentioned David Jones, who, who by the way, is probably the
• 9:45
  most similar to him in terms of policy positions, but it's also
• 9:47
  seemed to like come after him and attack him and not like him
• 9:49
  personally. Do you think Bobby Charles can
• 9:51
  unite the the Republicans if he wins the nomination?
• 9:56
  That's AI think he's going to need help.
• 9:59
  You know, obviously everybody else has expressed that they
• 10:02
  would not, you know, I think essentially that they would not
• 10:05
  rank him. I I definitely think that, you
• 10:07
  know, we talked about Robert Wessels, like I think Wessels
• 10:11
  and his his team will will. I'm not worried about whether or
• 10:15
  not they'll come behind Bobby if he wins.
• 10:17
  Some of the others might be a little bit more challenging to
• 10:21
  to bring in. But I think I think a lot of
• 10:24
  Republicans at that point, it's easy to say what you're willing
• 10:27
  to do and not willing to do before the primary as kind of a
• 10:30
  tactic and a tool to try and win and or try to make sure that the
• 10:33
  person that you don't want to win doesn't win.
• 10:35
  But once the dust is settled, I think Republicans are going to
• 10:40
  have a hard time watching and not helping our our candidate
• 10:46
  try to win. Because even if you don't love,
• 10:48
  you know, even if you don't love him like the, you know, the
• 10:51
  other alternative is either, you know, Doctor Death or whoever
• 10:55
  else comes out of the Democrat primary.
• 10:57
  Have you been observing, Speaking of the Democrats,
• 10:59
  what's ever going on? You're listening to the WJN
• 11:01
  Morning News. I'm Aaron Shadborn.
• 11:02
  In from that, we're talking to Chuck Ellis.
• 11:04
  He's the host of the Muddy Waters podcast, which you can
• 11:06
  find anywhere you get your podcast.
• 11:08
  He also chairs the Cumberland County Republicans.
• 11:10
  Chuck, when you look at the Democrat side and you look at
• 11:12
  Doctor Shaw, are you surprised at all that it's taking them
• 11:15
  this long to start attacking him?
• 11:16
  Because like now the, I don't know if you saw the same thing I
• 11:19
  did over the weekend, but my social media feed with all the
• 11:21
  Democrats that I'm kind of loosely allied with all of a
• 11:24
  sudden on, on X on Facebook, they're starting to be all these
• 11:27
  criticisms of Doctor Shaw. They obviously perceive him as
• 11:30
  the front runner. Are you surprised it's taking
• 11:31
  this long for them to like notice?
• 11:33
  Well, I, I guess initially I was surprised that they weren't
• 11:36
  going at each other. And then I like learned that
• 11:38
  they were all trying to play nice because of ranked choice
• 11:42
  voting, right. So like, I think that's a big
• 11:44
  part. And they thought like the, the,
• 11:45
  if we become negative, then we're going to lose out the
• 11:47
  opportunity to get people 2nd and 3rd place votes.
• 11:50
  And that's going to play a big role.
• 11:51
  But seeing again, as you said, how I don't know, I say
• 11:55
  commanding is it, but he's got he and he doesn't have as big of
• 11:58
  a lead according to that poll as as Bobby Charles does.
• 12:03
  But he does have a big enough lead to make them concerned.
• 12:07
  Because it looks like what seems to be emerging is Doctor Shaw
• 12:12
  and and Angus King are both the more moderate candidates with
• 12:18
  with King of presenting. I say presenting because I think
• 12:21
  ideologically they all largely agree on on most issues, but
• 12:26
  it's it's how they're presenting and how they're running their
• 12:28
  campaigns. And so they're both presenting
• 12:30
  as a more moderate candidates. And I'm very surprised to see
• 12:32
  the more moderate candidates are the ones that are doing better
• 12:36
  because that's not exactly what I expected out of the Democrat
• 12:38
  Party. But maybe the voters are, you
• 12:41
  know, more savvy than I gave them.
• 12:43
  I I sometimes give them credit for.
• 12:46
  But, yeah, so I'm a bit surprised now that they are
• 12:49
  starting to go after Doctor Shaw.
• 12:51
  But I think it's, it's for exactly what you said.
• 12:53
  They, they do want to win. And they, they, you know,
• 12:55
  they're teaming up, I guess against, against him.
• 12:58
  Well, it's. Funny when you see, you know,
• 13:00
  political activists like Betsy Sweet and Andy O'Brien
• 13:03
  reposting, like, unsubstantiated anonymous claims on Reddit and
• 13:07
  like, sharing detailed concerns, like, it's obviously coordinated
• 13:10
  by someone. You have to imagine that someone
• 13:12
  is Shanna Bellows or Troy Jackson or Hannah Pingree or
• 13:17
  their people, and their people are kind of figuring it out.
• 13:20
  And the Grand Platner obviously endorsed the three of them.
• 13:22
  He said, I'm voting for Troy, and I'm going to rank these
• 13:24
  other two, leaving Shaw and King out.
• 13:26
  So I think this will be a very interesting experience that
• 13:29
  Maine has with rank choice voting on both the left and the
• 13:32
  right. And I think it'll it'll, it'll,
• 13:35
  it'll be a very different race depending who emerges.
• 13:37
  If you have Bobby Charles on one side and Shanna Bellows or Troy
• 13:41
  Jackson on the other. I think it's a very different
• 13:42
  race than if you have a more moderate Republican like a Ben
• 13:46
  Midgley emerges and Dr. Shaw, who while very identifiable with
• 13:52
  the Mills administration and the COVID policies that had a lot of
• 13:57
  ill consequences. I think he's more middle of the
• 13:59
  road than like the extreme socialist wing.
• 14:01
  And so I think it's a very different race if you have the
• 14:04
  extreme candidates versus the more moderates.
• 14:07
  Yeah. And I think it becomes even more
• 14:08
  interesting if you get extreme with moderate.
• 14:11
  Yeah. And then the question there is
• 14:13
  like, does that what what paves the best path for for Rick
• 14:16
  Bennett and what gives him the worst path?
• 14:17
  I think is, is part of the question in in in the, you know,
• 14:20
  the independent lane. But some would argue that having
• 14:24
  the more extremes would give him the better, the better
• 14:27
  opportunity. But then there's also like if he
• 14:29
  if there's an extreme and then a moderate, like maybe that gives
• 14:32
  him an opportunity to steal from from that.
• 14:34
  And anyway, but yeah, a race with three moderates, you know,
• 14:41
  essentially because Rick Bennett being, you know, the independent
• 14:43
  moderate would be, I think it would be a very interesting
• 14:49
  race. But I think what they, what
• 14:50
  would end up happening in that type of scenario is once the, if
• 14:53
  the candidates presenting as moderates got through and now
• 14:57
  you've got, you know, 3 moderates, then I think the
• 14:59
  candidates end up trying to position themselves not
• 15:02
  necessarily as being extreme, because I don't think that's
• 15:05
  what the Republican candidates are.
• 15:06
  I think on the other side, I see extreme, I, I, I see the most
• 15:09
  quote UN quote extreme person on the right is a normal person who
• 15:13
  has normal conservative ideology.
• 15:16
  And, and so, but I think they would lean into that more if the
• 15:19
  other person is, is more moderate.
• 15:21
  And so you might see them behave as though they're more
• 15:25
  pronounced in their ideology. So last question because we only
• 15:29
  have a few minutes left on the US Senate race, right?
• 15:33
  Graham Platiner again over the weekend, new revelations about
• 15:37
  outrageous posts he made about overseas prostitutes.
• 15:40
  There seems to be no end to the content that he's generated
• 15:45
  online, which like, you know, in your 30s, you're still posting
• 15:48
  all your, like, unfiltered thoughts about every random
• 15:51
  thing and many of them unseemly and inappropriate.
• 15:55
  Do you think that people are now kind of have people grown kind
• 16:00
  of dull to that? Like kind of like another day,
• 16:04
  another grand planet revelation? Like is that continuing to be a
• 16:06
  drip, drip, drip of, Oh my God, this guy's a train wreck?
• 16:10
  Or are people just kind of numb to it at this point and it's
• 16:13
  baked in the cake? Well, I mean, I think if you're
• 16:15
  on the Democrat side, I think they're largely numb to it and
• 16:18
  it's baked into the cake. But I can't imagine like of your
• 16:21
  non ideologically captured, I, I have a hard time believing that
• 16:25
  this, this doesn't stick with them.
• 16:27
  And it's going to be really easy, you know, going to doors
• 16:31
  and for, for, you know, I think, I think there are challenges
• 16:37
  with platinum. I think he's a very good public
• 16:38
  speaker. I think he, he says a lot of
• 16:40
  things that people feel and are concerned about.
• 16:43
  I think his solutions aren't good, but for a lot of people it
• 16:46
  doesn't matter. But like I think this type of
• 16:47
  stuff does with again, with your non ideologically captured
• 16:52
  independents and and moderates, I have a hard time believing
• 16:55
  that that that they're going to be able to stomach voting for
• 16:59
  this guy. Honestly, I think you're going
• 17:01
  to have a low voter turn out among.
• 17:04
  So you're going to have a lot of those people just decide not to
• 17:06
  show up to vote or just not vote at all.
• 17:08
  If they don't love Collins, I, I, I can't imagine them voting
• 17:12
  for a guy. I mean, the Porter party thing I
• 17:15
  think is the most viscerally disgusting for most people from
• 17:19
  all the stuff that I've seen so far.
• 17:22
  And I just think that, yeah, it makes people feel really
• 17:25
  uncomfortable. And I think you're going to have
• 17:26
  a lot of people have a hard time voting for him.
• 17:28
  I think that's why he's brilliant, that he's doing all
• 17:30
  this stuff about like the Red Sox, everything else, to be
• 17:32
  relatable and to be a person and to make him like, you know, to
• 17:35
  try to humanize himself and make himself relevant to everything
• 17:38
  that people are talking about. I say don't sleep on Grand
• 17:40
  Platinum. I'm very concerned.
• 17:42
  I think he's got a lot of energy and a lot of really smart people
• 17:46
  working for him. Well, and a lot of this stuff
• 17:48
  like seems again, and one of the challenges you and I have talked
• 17:51
  about before, we're kind of in the in the weeds with a lot of
• 17:53
  the people who are engaged and paying close attention to
• 17:56
  politics. And sometimes that doesn't give
• 17:57
  us a really great understanding of the average person because
• 18:00
  the average person is who determines elections and we're
• 18:04
  not necessarily always talking to them.
• 18:05
  And so, you know, so I think a lot of it will determine would
• 18:09
  depend on where what they're hearing and what what sticks
• 18:12
  with them. But with with a lot of people on
• 18:14
  the left and, you know, sometimes surprising people,
• 18:16
  like none of this stuff seems to stick to him.
• 18:19
  Yeah, no, absolutely. Chuck Ellis, he is the host of
• 18:22
  the Muddy Waters podcast. Where can people check it out if
• 18:24
  they want to hear more from you, Chuck?
• 18:26
  You can find us on all the socials or you can go to Muddy
• 18:28
  Waters dot US. Check out our merch, lots of
• 18:32
  fun. And do you want to plug your
• 18:33
  event coming up? Yeah, we have a really great
• 18:36
  event coming up at Throttle Car Club in Scarborough on June 4th
• 18:41
  called Cars, Candidates, Cocktails.
• 18:43
  And a lot of the gubernatorial candidates will be there, most
• 18:47
  of them on the Republican side. Wow.
• 18:50
  Visit the Cumberland County Republicans website to check it
• 18:53
  out. Chuck Ellis, thanks for being
• 18:54
  with us. Grace Curley, of course, will be
• 18:56
  back next week. I'm Aaron Chadbourne in for Matt
• 18:59
  on the WGAN Morning News. Final hour of the show coming up
• 19:02
  after this.