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Supreme Court blocks Trumps bid to restrict postal voting · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: U.S.
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  Speaker 2: President Donald Trump has slammed a decision by the U.S.
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  Speaker 2: Supreme Court to deny his request to limit mail-in voting
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  Speaker 2: for November's midterm elections. Trump lashed out at the court,
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  Speaker 2: accusing it of being cowed by Democrats. The president had
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  Speaker 2: signed an executive order in March pushing for a different
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  Speaker 2: system that would have seen the U.S. Postal Service play
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  Speaker 2: a central role in deciding who would receive a mail ballot.
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  Speaker 2: Nearly one-third of U.S. voters cast their ballots by mail.
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  Speaker 2: Supreme Court's decision to reject Trump's plan allows states to
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  Speaker 2: continue sending out ballots via post in the same way
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  Speaker 2: as they have done for years. Philip Adorf is a
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  Speaker 2: research associate at the University of Bonn specializing in U.S.
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  Speaker 2: politics with a special focus on the Republican Party and demographics. Philip,
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  Speaker 2: explain to us why President Trump wanted to restrict mail-in voting.
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  Speaker 1: Well, I think there are both political and ideological reasons.
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  Speaker 1: So since the 2020 presidential election in particular, Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: has tried to portray mail-in voting as vulnerable to fraud,
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  Speaker 1: despite there being practically no evidence of any sort of
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  Speaker 1: widespread fraud. And there's also that partisan dimension. So Democrats,
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  Speaker 1: especially since the COVID pandemic, have been far more likely
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  Speaker 1: to vote by mail than Republicans. So any sort of
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  Speaker 1: restrictions when it comes to mail-in voting or absentee voting
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  Speaker 1: disproportionately affect Democratic voters. But it's also important to remember
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  Speaker 1: that this kind of absentee voting is not necessarily inherently Democratic.
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  Speaker 1: There are also Republicans that use it. So in that sense,
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has in the past also discouraged some of
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  Speaker 1: his own supporters from using it.
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  Speaker 2: I was wondering about that because, as you say, Democrats
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  Speaker 2: are not the only ones who send in mail-in ballots.
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  Speaker 2: They vote by mail. Republicans vote by mail. How do
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  Speaker 2: voters in the U.S. feel about the Trump administration's efforts
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  Speaker 2: to block mail-in votes?
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  Speaker 1: I mean, mail-in voting has become something of a partisan
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  Speaker 1: topic in recent years. The latest data does show that
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  Speaker 1: a large majority of Americans About 60% does support mail-in
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  Speaker 1: voting or absentee voting. And yeah, as you mentioned, this
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  Speaker 1: creates something of a dilemma for the Republican Party as well,
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  Speaker 1: because even in 2024, about a quarter of Republicans themselves
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  Speaker 1: voted by mail. So these kinds of restrictions can also
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  Speaker 1: affect Republicans. And we have seen data that in states
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  Speaker 1: where postal voting is quite common, Republicans tend to be
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  Speaker 1: more supportive of it as well. But in general, it
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  Speaker 1: is an issue that has become more divisive in recent
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  Speaker 1: years as the Trump administration has sought to really politicize it.
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  Speaker 2: So what exactly did the Supreme Court say in rejecting
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  Speaker 2: Trump's plan?
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  Speaker 1: I think it's important to remember that the Supreme Court
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  Speaker 1: did not say that these kinds of restrictions are inherently unconstitutional.
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  Speaker 1: So it did not offer a ruling on the constitutionality
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  Speaker 1: or lack thereof. So It only said that the administration
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  Speaker 1: could not really introduce substantial changes this close to the
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  Speaker 1: midterm elections. After all, they're only about 50 days away.
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  Speaker 1: The new system that the Trump administration sought to introduce
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  Speaker 1: would have required special barcoded envelopes and states to also
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  Speaker 1: provide voter information to the U.S. Postal Service. And Justice Kavanaugh,
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  Speaker 1: even though he rejected the Trump administration's efforts here, suggested
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  Speaker 1: that the Postal Service might have the authority to impose
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  Speaker 1: such rules in the future. So ultimately, this was more
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  Speaker 1: of a rejection of the timing of this plan rather
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  Speaker 1: than the general implementation or constitutionality of it.
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  Speaker 2: So potentially, we could see this cropping up again if
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  Speaker 2: Donald Trump decides to take aim at mail-in voting. President
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  Speaker 2: Trump has called the Supreme Court's ruling a bad decision.
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  Speaker 2: What do you make of that?
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  Speaker 1: Well, I mean, whenever Donald Trump loses a ruling by
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  Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, he tends to attack it. And I
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  Speaker 1: think most certainly, while this is a significant defeat for
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  Speaker 1: the Trump administration, there will be further efforts by the
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  Speaker 1: administration to impose some rules, potentially before the elections, but
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  Speaker 1: even after that. So the Trump administration has sought to
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  Speaker 1: really obtain more federal power over the conduct of elections.
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  Speaker 1: Even congressional elections are by and large the domain of
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  Speaker 1: state governments. But the Trump administration has argued that some
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  Speaker 1: democratic state governments do too little to supposedly avoid voter fraud.
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  Speaker 1: So I think Donald Trump and his administration will try
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  Speaker 1: to return to this topic after the election. But for
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  Speaker 1: the time being, for the midterm elections, at least this
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  Speaker 1: means that this will not be a factor. And most certainly,
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  Speaker 1: I think that there are also, if there are other
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  Speaker 1: attempts by the Trump administration to impose new rules, I
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  Speaker 1: think the courts will likely offer a similar opinion in
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  Speaker 1: the sense that this is too close to election day.
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  Speaker 1: And this can be introduced a month or two ahead
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  Speaker 1: of an election.
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  Speaker 2: We've seen a lot of maneuvering ahead of these midterm elections,
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  Speaker 2: and many say that they could really be decisive in
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  Speaker 2: how Congress is shaped in the second half of the
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  Speaker 2: Trump presidency. What are you anticipating in the midterms right now,
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  Speaker 2: and how have efforts like the Trump effort to restrict
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  Speaker 2: mail-in voting impacted the midterms?
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  Speaker 1: Well, I think in general, the Democratic Party has obtained
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  Speaker 1: a significant lead in most polls. So it might be
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  Speaker 1: possible that the lead is just too big to be
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  Speaker 1: impacted by different measures. But certainly in some close races,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, there are a couple of Senate seats that
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  Speaker 1: could be decisive in terms of whether Democrats are able
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  Speaker 1: to obtain a majority in the Senate or not. And
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  Speaker 1: this is in particular relevant, of course, to Republican-run states.
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  Speaker 1: So Democrats are trying to gain a number of Republican
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  Speaker 1: seats in the Senate in Republican-run states. And this is
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  Speaker 1: where state measures to make voting more difficult, which have
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  Speaker 1: been introduced quite significantly in recent years, could potentially make
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  Speaker 1: a difference by making it more difficult to vote early,
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  Speaker 1: making it more difficult to obtain absentee ballots as well. So,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, this is sort of outside of the attempts
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  Speaker 1: by the Trump White House. So we can definitely say
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  Speaker 1: that voting and these different discussions surrounding it have become
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  Speaker 1: a key sort of partisan dispute in recent years. And
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  Speaker 1: depending on the winning margin, they can sometimes prove to
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  Speaker 1: be decisive. And this could most certainly also be the
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  Speaker 1: case in a couple of very close Senate races this
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  Speaker 1: time around.
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  Speaker 2: So there's still several weeks before that election. Do you
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  Speaker 2: expect to see further moves by the Trump administration in
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  Speaker 2: that time to shape the conditions under which the midterms
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  Speaker 2: take place?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we can say that there will probably
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  Speaker 1: be a continuation of these efforts, which have been going
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  Speaker 1: on essentially since the beginning of the second Trump term
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  Speaker 1: in terms of focusing on citizenship verification efforts. voter rolls
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  Speaker 1: and potentially trying to get voters off these voter rolls
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  Speaker 1: and the question of who ultimately has authority over election rules.
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  Speaker 1: So certainly I think the Trump administration will continue to
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  Speaker 1: push forward. Having said that, yesterday's ruling does indicate that
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  Speaker 1: I think the courts are quite likely to say over
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  Speaker 1: the coming weeks that any sort of major shifts or
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  Speaker 1: changes by the Trump administration or attempts by the Trump
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  Speaker 1: administration to obtain more power over how the elections are conducted,
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  Speaker 1: will likely be thrown out in court, not on the
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  Speaker 1: basis of constitutionality, but on the basis of the fact
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  Speaker 1: that elections are just around the corner. So I think
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  Speaker 1: for the time being, the midterm elections will be comparatively
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  Speaker 1: safe from any sort of notable influence from the White
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  Speaker 1: House going forward.
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  Speaker 2: Philip, thank you very much for your analysis. That was
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  Speaker 2: Philip Ador from the University of Bonn.