Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Interview Only w/ Doug Sosnik - The Political Climate Is Terrible For Republicans, But Can Democrats Take Advantage?

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Interview Only w/ Doug Sosnik - The Political Climate Is Terrible For Republicans, But Can Democrats Take Advantage? · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 2: Well.
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  Speaker 1: About once a quarter, we political junctiously await an email
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  Speaker 1: from for some of us a long time source and
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  Speaker 1: a friend and for others just a long time of
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  Speaker 1: sorts or anywhere in between. And it's a sort of
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  Speaker 1: a PowerPoint presentation from Doug Sosnik. Doug Sosnick is a
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  Speaker 1: longtime political advisor to Bill Clinton was White House political director,
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  Speaker 1: worked on the campaigns both the ninety two and ninety six.
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  Speaker 1: But he's incredibly good at essentially trying to take a
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  Speaker 1: lot and we have a lot of inputs these days
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  Speaker 1: when it comes to trying to assess the political climate.
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  Speaker 1: It's not just polling data anymore. There's plenty of inputs.
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  Speaker 1: There's economic inputs, there's all sorts of inputs to put
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  Speaker 1: in this thing. And he does a terrific job of
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  Speaker 1: essentially putting together sort of a just about a quarterly picture,
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  Speaker 1: if you will, And he just put one out. He
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  Speaker 1: happened to date this one April eighth. That's always a
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  Speaker 1: little bit more of an important date to me than
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  Speaker 1: just about most other people. Happens to be the day
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  Speaker 1: I aged out of the demographic And that's all. I'll
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  Speaker 1: that's all. I'm gonna leave you with, Sosnik that this
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  Speaker 1: has been a this has been the hardestday I've had yet,
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  Speaker 1: because this is the year I'm no longer in the demo,
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  Speaker 1: and you know, it's like it's all downhill from here.
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  Speaker 1: I know, can't complain. I got to shut up. But
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  Speaker 1: it's also a good time to assess where are we
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  Speaker 1: and of course somebody who's been there. The real question
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  Speaker 1: about this current political environment we're in is how much
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  Speaker 1: can change between now and November other than a black
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  Speaker 1: Swan event. And so, Doug, welcome back to the todcast.
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  Speaker 2: Great to be back, Chack.
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  Speaker 1: So let me start, thank you, No no, no, I
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  Speaker 1: just sort of done on me when I saw the
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  Speaker 1: date on your PowerPoint, I was like, oh, I appreciate
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  Speaker 1: you dating it that day. I am. I had the
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  Speaker 1: I had theorized with Meliza a couple of days ago
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  Speaker 1: last weekend this week that we may look back and say, oh,
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  Speaker 1: this midterm ended in February twenty eighth, the day the
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  Speaker 1: day he decided to launch a war with Iran, that
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  Speaker 1: in some ways that there was no getting out of it,
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  Speaker 1: and it's sort of like quicksand and it's just going
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  Speaker 1: to suck them in. Obviously, we know we can go
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  Speaker 1: through every cliche. You know, a month is a lifetime
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  Speaker 1: in politics and all of that. Realistically, how much can
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  Speaker 1: this political environment change to me now November in your opinion?
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  Speaker 2: So let me say two things about that. The first is,
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  Speaker 2: I know you're a big sports fan. I think one
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  Speaker 2: of the things that sports events, games have in common
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  Speaker 2: with elections is there's usually one or two moments that
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  Speaker 2: are the decisive moments in a game, and many times,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: when you're watching it in real time, you know that
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  Speaker 2: was the moment that the game was decided. And sometimes
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  Speaker 2: only after the game is over you look back at
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  Speaker 2: the point or two. It's the same in elections. There's
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  Speaker 2: always an ability. I would say, as an example for
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  Speaker 2: Joe Biden's term in office, I think the summer of
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  Speaker 2: two thousand and one really set the arc for his
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  Speaker 2: entire presidency.
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  Speaker 1: He never recovered from Afghani state withdrawal.
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  Speaker 2: More more than that, it was the he said that
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  Speaker 2: July fourth, he said, we're going to have COVID over
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  Speaker 2: about Labor day, the withdrawal. You're right about that, but
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  Speaker 2: also inflation showed for the first time that September it
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  Speaker 2: got over six percent, and by the end of September
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  Speaker 2: of that of that month, we started having supply chain problems.
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  Speaker 2: So anyway, every election cycle, I think every has that
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  Speaker 2: sort of moment. My hunch is that that moment was
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  Speaker 2: what you just identified, which was going into Iran. The
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  Speaker 2: second point I want to make though, is that, well, yes,
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  Speaker 2: it's true that we're say, six months away from the
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  Speaker 2: election day. One thing historically remains true and one thing
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  Speaker 2: has changed. What has remained true is that the country
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  Speaker 2: generally is settles in sometimes around the summer before an election,
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  Speaker 2: and pretty much at that point kind of takes stock
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  Speaker 2: of where they feel they are, how they're going to vote,
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  Speaker 2: if at all, in November. So, for instance, in nineteen
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  Speaker 2: ninety two, Bill Clinton was elected president in large part
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  Speaker 2: do the relatively mild but nevertheless a recession that happened
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  Speaker 2: in the second third year of Bush's presidency. If you
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  Speaker 2: go back and look now, by July of ninety two,
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  Speaker 2: on the run up to the election, we actually not
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  Speaker 2: only got out of the recession, but in fact, by
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  Speaker 2: election day the economy had made the turn and things
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  Speaker 2: were really going much better. But it was too late
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  Speaker 2: for Bush. People had already made their mind. So that's
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  Speaker 2: one of the things that hasn't changed. We're only, you know,
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  Speaker 2: forty five fifty sixty days away from that. The other thing, though,
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  Speaker 2: which has changed, is unlike back in that example of
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  Speaker 2: ninety two, a year's past, we now have many more
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  Speaker 2: people voting in the beginning early September, and so we
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  Speaker 2: have elections now where maybe half the people will voted
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  Speaker 2: by election data. So the point is the window for
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  Speaker 2: this administration and the Republicans to turn around. The current
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  Speaker 2: mood in this country is really very narrow and we
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  Speaker 2: shouldn't be thinking of that is six months until election day.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, there were these little there's also been I'm curious
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  Speaker 1: where you are in this. There's this generalization about what
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  Speaker 1: the economy is in June is what people will feel
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  Speaker 1: like the economy is come voting time.
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  Speaker 2: Well, there's a big change that's going on in our country,
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  Speaker 2: and some of the sides in the decuolity to show it.
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  Speaker 2: We used to have a direct correlation between where the
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  Speaker 2: economic numbers say and how people feel without the economy.
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  Speaker 2: In the last three years or so that they've been
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  Speaker 2: delinked and so that while the number it's like a
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  Speaker 2: case shape, which is our economy, while the numbers are positive,
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  Speaker 2: and that's what Biden used to say, it's what Trump
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  Speaker 2: now says. The majority of the country doesn't feel it.
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  Speaker 2: And the reason why is because we now have disproportionately
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  Speaker 2: a small number of people reaping the rewards, and so
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  Speaker 2: we now have the difference between average and mean averages.
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  Speaker 2: May be good but the mean, sixty percent of the
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  Speaker 2: country feels like they're paycheck to paycheck.
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  Speaker 1: Remember the John Edward Stubs speech of Foura to Americas. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: it's almost more prescient. That's prescient. I mean it's almost
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  Speaker 1: more relevant today, isn't it?
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  Speaker 2: Totally? And this didn't happen overnight. This began in the
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  Speaker 2: nineteen seventies when we moved to shareholder capitalism. Yep, all
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  Speaker 2: of a sudden, everything was back the quarterly number. Shareholders
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  Speaker 2: are the only constituency that mattered. And this has been
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  Speaker 2: a steady fifty year drumbeat where the America worker is
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  Speaker 2: no longer enjoying the spoils of the benefits of our
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  Speaker 2: economy like they did in the past.
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  Speaker 1: Well, the other thing that I'm staring at it right here,
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  Speaker 1: the total amount of wealth held by people more than
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  Speaker 1: seventy three people.
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  Speaker 2: A third of the wealth in America is now with
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  Speaker 2: people who are seventy years or older.
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  Speaker 1: So what does that mean? Like, what if you're Bill
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  Speaker 1: Clinton in the nineties, how would you have attack this?
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  Speaker 2: Well, we have and I'll answer that in terms of
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  Speaker 2: the future for now the Democratic Party in a minute.
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  Speaker 2: But we do have to Americas. But the problem in
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  Speaker 2: our two Americas is the winner is now correlated to education,
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  Speaker 2: and education correlates to income. So the problem in our
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  Speaker 2: country right now is we're moving away from a meritocracy
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  Speaker 2: where no matter what family you're born into, if you
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  Speaker 2: worked how you can get ahead. Now we increasingly a
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  Speaker 2: situation where the winners are the ones who win the
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  Speaker 2: lottery at birth and are born into a family. So
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  Speaker 2: if you if one third of a wealth in America
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  Speaker 2: is accumulated now with people who are seventy or years
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  Speaker 2: or older from people in that families, those families, they're
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  Speaker 2: probably going to win from that because they're going to
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  Speaker 2: inherit that money. But to answer your question, the key
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  Speaker 2: I think for both parties right now, for the Democratic
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  Speaker 2: Party is going back to our roots which made us
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  Speaker 2: a majority party from Roosevelt through really you know Reagan,
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  Speaker 2: I guess, and that is how do we create for
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  Speaker 2: the sixty percent of the people in America that don't
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  Speaker 2: get a four year college degree, how do we create
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  Speaker 2: laddering for them to have a middle class life which
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  Speaker 2: they used to have during the industrial Age. And so
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  Speaker 2: that key for us is Democrats to be competitive around
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  Speaker 2: the country in rural areas, non urban areas. We give
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  Speaker 2: got to address the challenges of people without a college
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  Speaker 2: degree increasingly being left behind.
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  Speaker 1: You know, I've been obsessed with this and going back
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  Speaker 1: and you realize that, you know, our current era of polarization,
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  Speaker 1: it isn't you know, will break it at some point.
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  Speaker 1: The question is whether it's broken intentionally or it just
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  Speaker 1: sort of breaks on its own, because at some point
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  Speaker 1: there's almost like a revolt of the majority. But there
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: is a majority, a durable majority, Roosevelt like sixty percent,
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  Speaker 1: who are sort of fed up with how this entire
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: system works. But right now they're kind of divvied up
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: between the two parties. Right They've been culturally divvied up,
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: maybe they're divvied up by identity, maybe they're divvied up
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: by geography. And yet if you had a you know,
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: we could sort of see that there is there's a
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  Speaker 1: common economic frustration among this group that if you did
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  Speaker 1: what FDR did, which was basically, look, you're going to
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  Speaker 1: have to close your eyes to the cultural things and
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  Speaker 1: just focus as a north star on the economic you
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  Speaker 1: can build that majority. Is that realistic though? I Mean
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  Speaker 1: I sit there and I look at it. On one hand.
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  Speaker 1: I'm like, I can see it, and yet I just
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  Speaker 1: can't figure out how we ever get culture out of politics,
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  Speaker 1: even temporarily.
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  Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about the short term and no longer
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: term and the short term, and I'm talking about five
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  Speaker 2: to ten years. Where we have been since the turn
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  Speaker 2: of the century is essentially three kind of buckets of
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: people in America. And just remind you that you'd probably
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: already know politics is a lagging indicator, not a leading
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: indicator of how people feel in America. Whereas these trends
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: of the decline of the middle class began in the
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: seventies and people feeling increasingly alienated towards our institutions all
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: started back in the seventies, it didn't show up politically
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: until the early nineties and the first election ross Peroso nineteen.
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  Speaker 2: Almost twenty million people voted for him in nineteen ninety two,
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  Speaker 2: so that was the first time these trends showed up politically.
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  Speaker 2: And Trump, in many ways gotten from the line that
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: had been forming fifteen years before. He wrote down that escalator,
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  Speaker 2: and he's tapping I few him as a symptom of
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: what's happened in America, not the cause. But we currently
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: have three buckets of people in America. We have the
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  Speaker 2: forty five forty six percent of the people in America
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: who hate Donald Trump no matter what he says, no
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: matter what he does, they will never support him or
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: accept him. We have around forty percent roughly that like
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump and will stay by Donald Trump no matter
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: what he says or does. The remaining fifteen percent, called civilians,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: basically dislike both parties. They tend to vote against who's
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  Speaker 2: ever in power. Because we now had eleven out of
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  Speaker 2: the last thirteen elections, the country is ready to get
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: it is remarkable.
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  Speaker 1: We haven't had a streak like this since the nineteenth century.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, but this fifteen percent, roughly, they are more aligned
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: with Trump on views than not. First of all, he's
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: a disruptor and he's breaking things not maintained the status quo.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: They agree with him about China's our enemy. They agree
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: with him about NATO hasn't been paying their fair share.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: They agree with him about the government is too big
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: and should be cut. They agree with him that our
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: borders should have been shut down. But they had personal
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: concerns about him. But when the choice was either a
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: Biden or a Harris, versus Trump, given how they remembered
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: presidency economically. So now Trump has lost that third group.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: That's why he's backed around forty percent. So we're in
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: this standoff. It's cultural now, so that I don't think
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: that's change the next four or five six years. In
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: the long term, though, we are beginning. Two things are
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: gonna happen to get us out of this break the feet.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: First is the baby we were is gonna die off.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: We're gonna have new generational leadership in our country. Young
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: people in America think both parties suck and they have
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: actually more in commonly together, certainly the Baby Boom generation.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: But the other is we are beginning the process of
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: converting people through our job systems and training to get
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: people laddered up for the jobs of the future and
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: the career of the future, so that you can have
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: a middle class life without going to college. And when
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: that happens, education, which correlates to income and culture, will
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: be less important. But I think we're another five to
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: ten years away from that.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting when people ask me when are we
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: getting out of this, and I'm like, I think we
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: have to get through a few more presidential Like I
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: had said this ten years ago. I said, I think
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: we're gonna have a series of one term presidents, and
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: we have had three. The last time we had this
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: many you could go back to before McKinley, and we're
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: probably I think we probably go I think the Progressives
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: need their presidency. I kind of think they got a
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: half version of it in Biden, but they're gonna want there.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I can't tell you how many progressives I talked to
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: on the even on the consultant side. You say, I
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: want my own Trump. You know, I want my own
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: project twenty twenty nine, and you know they want to
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: try that, right. I just have a feeling we haven't
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: exhausted this yet. No, we haven't, and we'll get there,
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: but it may take. The question is does it does
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: it take some like you know, it took a great
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: depression right to get the FDR coalition, arguably right, you
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: had to have an economic catastrophe in order to get that.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: So we're just you know, I abide by what Churchill says,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: America will always do the right thing. Eventually, after we've
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: exact all the wrong paths.
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: I think we're going to have to get the current
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: generation off the stage I.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Think when the boomers age out of I like to
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: call it age out of voting.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no longer participating. But I think that I
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: think we're going to look at the let me make
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: two points the first years. I think whatever happens in
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: the mid terms elections, which I think the Democrats will
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: do well, and we can talk about it if you want.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I do want to talk about it. I that degrees
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: of it. But to me, the real question is are
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: they gonna over learn? Are they gonna they're gonna overreact
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: or underreact to what they do?
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: But I don't think even the Democrats do really well.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: I don't think the twenty six midterms will tell you
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: anything about the twenty twenty eight elections, just like the
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: two biggest mid terms since World War Two or ninety
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: four and twenty ten for Republicans, and they lost the
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: White House two years later. So the first thing is, well,
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: mid terms are important, particularly it relates to the final
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: two years of Trump's residency. They really don't tell you
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: anything about twenty twenty eight and then. But I believe
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: the twenty twenty eight election, the one that's most similar
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: to it, is going to be the nineteen sixty election,
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: which is we've been living in this period in the
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: age of Trump since you wrote down the Escalator. The
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty eight election is about the future of America
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: post Trump, and I think we're going to have a
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: generational change of leadership in twenty eight with the country's
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: dying for just as we did in nineteen sixty, where
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: we really moved in nineteen sixty away from the World
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: War II era, the World War Two leadership to Kennedy
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: and basically, you know, the new modern America. Twenty twenty eight,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: I think will be the transition generationally of leadership which
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: the country has been pining for. But it's going to
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: be the beginning of this whole post world, post Trump
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: world that we are no longer even in the vapors
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: of World War Two in terms of our place in
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: the world, of our allies or relationship and those are
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: the states.
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  Speaker 1: And yes, I too, am a customer. I guess I don't.
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  Speaker 1: Only My only concern is are you sure Trump's off
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: the stage. I'm not talking about him running again, but
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: I think him being in office, him influencing that are
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: we going to get? I agree we're going to have
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: a The post Trump era is gonna be sort of
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: a new opening. Is twenty eight post Trump? Yet you
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: see we're going I think that.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: So I have no idea about what's going to happen
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: to the Democratic Party in twenty eight, But I think
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: in the Republican Party you're going to have a MAGA
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: candidate in a non MAGA candidate, and the MAGA candidate
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: will either be Answer Ribia or both of them in
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: some configuration, and there'll be a non MAGA candidate, and that,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: I guess today would be Cruz and Trump and his
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: operation will control the process for the nomination, which could
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: have a big impact. But I think that if you
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: look at the polling of self identified Republicans. NBC did
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: a poll I think, you know, in April, and it
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: was like by sixteen points or something people said they
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: were Republican because of MAGA. There were MAGA. Now it's
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: fifty to fifty.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: So I've noticed that number is moving, and everybody asked
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: it slightly different. Yes, you consider yourself more a Republican
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: than you are MAGA or MAGA than a Republican. And
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: it is always correlated with Trump's approval rating. Yes, when
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: he's when he's basically on a downward trend, mag identification
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: goes down. When he's on an upward trend, MAG identification
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: goes up. Here was the Marquette poll, which I like
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: as an I think that guy does a good job
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: on the national level too. This was this was last
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: month and it you know, I'm not going to be
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: a conspiracy here, but I think people didn't like this
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: news nugget, so it didn't get the attention it deserved.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: The Republican Party, Democratic Party, and MEGA were all tested
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: in a favorable rating. The Republican Party had the highest
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: favor rating, then the Democratic Party, then MAGA, and but
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Democrats were closer to MAGA. Than they were the Republicans,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: and there was like a four or five point I
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: mean it was a it was, it was it was
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: a semi significant And the fact that that is not
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: and this maybe is a good way to train condition.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: The Democratic Party's brand is not improving as they get
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: stronger in the mid terms. What does that tell you, Well.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: That the country doesn't trust the Democratic Party to protect
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: them for their security or with their money. And if
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: you look at it, but if you look at the but.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: They're going to vote for him this election.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: That's the very point. Though this is a in fact,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: and I'll jump to twenty off. Yers are referendums on
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: the incumbent party. Presidential elections are choices. I think the
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: single most important determinant of who wins the twenty twenty
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: eight election is going to be who the Democrats nominate.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: I don't think the country is going to want another
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: Republican after Trump. But if we don't give people a
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: reason to vote for us, they will default to vote
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: against us. The last thing I'll say, and he told
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: me him important milestone, You're gonn tell me which one.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: So I'll just talk about my life for a moment
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: in my life there have been three campaigns that turn
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: into movements, and the first was Reagan, and that was
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: a that became a political movement that was and I'm
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: talking now as someone who working in the Clinton White
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: House in the nineties. Reagan's victory in eighty ushered in
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: the governing dominant government governing in America through the two
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: thousand and eight end of Russia's second term.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Here I use this as an example. I always say this,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: how do you know when parties have won an argument
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: when the party that loses starts to echo what the
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: party that wins says. In the nineteen ninety I think
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: it's the ninety five State of the Union when Bill
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Clinton says the era of big government is over. That
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: is when Reagan we That is when the Democrats acknowledged Okay,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Reagan won the argument.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: That was in ninety five, and the Reagan political movement
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: project ended with Rodney's defeat in twenty twelve. And if
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: you look at after that election, is when everything changed
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: in Trump's victory in twenty six so and then the
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: second campaign that turned the movement was Obamas right, and
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: that really only lasted two years. And then at that
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: point Obama was just a candidate again, he.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Just became a confessional. Yeah.
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: And then the third was Trump. And so I believe
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: that Trump, the Trump movement is is much more similar
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: to the Obama movement, which was it's not transferable, unlike Reagan.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: Reagan's the only one where it was transferable.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Well, but was it transferable? I mean I almost not.
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: Reagan had a sixth Let me throw this at you.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: If Reagan has a fifty two percent job rating instead
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: of a sixty, does Michael Ducaccas get losing a blowout?
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: Probably not right, No, because the end of the day
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: they devoted against the caucus.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he loses anyway, but it might be close.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: But yeah, so but although although, by the way, if
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: you look at the electoral college map from the nineteen
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: eighty eight election, it was the foundation of the modern
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: democratic electoral map until sixteen that was that became the
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: base states. But anyway, just lastly, but if you look
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: at Trump and Trumpism, which is really wrapped around the
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: actle of his personality, they're like six tribes that some
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: of them are directly in confident with each other. And
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's transferable. And you know, you can
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: say some positive none come to mind. But you can
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: say some positive things about the vice president, but one
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: thing you can't say about him is that he's very
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: charismatic or that he can emotionally connect with people. And
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: so I think it's not going to be I don't
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: think trump Ism is going to be. I think it's
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: going to be a big factor in the Republican nomination process,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: but I don't think it's going to be that big
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: a factor in general.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I still think there's a greater than five percent
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: chance that a somebody with the last name of Trump
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: flirts and gets semi serious. Well, it's either Junior or Eric,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: and I don't I'm not playing any games here about
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: the old man. This is about Junior, Eric and even
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: you know, and I wouldn't even rule out Laura Trump.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: She definitely has the ambition, probably more than any of
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: them do. But well, I've been told I've always thought
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Trump would be more engaged in twenty eight If somebody
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: with his last name is his running.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Well that's totally for sure. I have been told that
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: they have been testing Don Junior's numbers in polling.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: They have or have not half interesting. Well, looks just
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: the name you know, the irony is Eric's probably the
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: more competent one from my reporting. Well there's that, and
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: who does who does? Who does the president trust with
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: his business? And ain't junior?
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: Well I'm not sure.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: It's always probably Trust's daughter more than well, that could
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: be as well. Well. I it's interesting that you bring
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: up ninety four and ten, And another one I was
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: thinking of was eighty six, which was a pretty good
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: midterm for Democrats, more on the Senate side than the
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: House side, but they literally win a chamber and of
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: course it was meaningless as far as eighty eight was concerned,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: but six was a midterm that felt like it was
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: the beginning of turning a page on the Bush era right.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: People were exhausted from the war, people were exhausted from
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: w They were looking for a reason to go with
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: the Democrats. They gave them. They gave them majorities in six,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: and then essentially it was Democrats to lose in O eight.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of Democrats who think that this
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: is what's happening, Like there are you know, a bunch
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: of Obama a lums. Oh, this is going to be
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: the same thing. I'm skeptical. It sounds like you are
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: too well.
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: You brought up two interesting midterm, two interesting elections. So
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: the intelection was the only time since World War Two
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: where the country voting for one party to have the
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: White House three terms in a row. It's the only time,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: and I think that speaks to the power of the
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: Reagan movement. And I don't believe in eight I don't
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: see any scenario that the country was going to have
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: the Republicans in the White House three terms in a row,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: particularly after Bush's eight years. So but going back to
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: what I said earlier about twenty eight, that's why I
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: think it all comes down to the Democrats. I don't
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: think it's inevitable that the Democrats are going to win
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: because the country doesn't want to vote the Republicans. But
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: I think the country doesn't want to vote for the Republicans.
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: But because there's such a lack of confidence in the
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: Democratic Party now, and it's going to matter who we nominate.
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: And that's that's why I think that's going to be
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: the most important factor, and who controls the White House
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: in twenty eight more so than who the Republicans nominde.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: I am, and I will confess my confirmation bias on
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: the following, meaning, I'm always looking for signs that these
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: two major parties are fracturing and that there's an opportunity
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: for I'm not a believer that we will have a
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: sustained three or four party movement. I think I think
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: that you know, the most you know, the most effective
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: third party in American history is a Republican the Republican Party.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: They essentially replaced a party. So I say this with
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: the with at least believing that. But I look at
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: what's happening in the UK, which served as a pre
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: cur a warning to this populist uprising with Brexit, you know,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: happening before Trump, and there was definitely more connection than
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: not connection. And I and I'm obsessed with the fact
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: that the two major parties in the UK are both
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: finding themselves no longer sort of the two major parties. Right,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: you have this Reform UK which is cutting into the
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: Tories in some ways, Mike could end up if the
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: election were today, they'd be the likely party forming the government.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: They would be the quote new right wing party. And
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: you have the right now the Greens or are chomping
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: at the ankles of labor. Labor couldn't be more unpopular,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: and it feels like that labor only won this last
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: time because well, where else were they going to go?
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: Voters wanted to get rid of this conservative government and
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: they basically felt like they only had one option. But
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: it struck me as boy, they wish they had other options.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: It just was what it was. I think twent you know, look,
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: I think it's my in twenty six, I'm obsessed with
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Montana in particular in Michigan, you know, Kevin Kylie out
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: in California. If independence can win, not just come close,
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: can win in some of these places, I think there's
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: going to be an appetite for some Parro like candidate
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight. Do you buy that? Or does it?
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Once again, all depend on what the Democrats do, Meaning
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: if the Democrats go hard left and end up with AOC,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: then it opens the door for this sort of alternative
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: lane here. Is that the only scenario? Or do you
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: foresee something else?
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: Well, you take a broad look at our lives now
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: compared to twenty years ago. There are all these institutions
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: twenty years ago that we were aligned with, and we
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: no longer care about the department stores and linear televisions
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: and you know where you get sports and how you shot.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know about you. I wanted to watch an
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: NBA game the other day to play in and I'm like,
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: all right, let me try YouTube TV. No, I'm not there, right, Yeah,
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: maybe it's NBA app No not. Oh I found it
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: on Amazon Prime. Okay, that drove me nuts, but I
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: did find it eventually.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Well, you should just go to my ESPN in a
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: list where it's being showed that. The broad point is
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: we're going through a historical period change in our country.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: As we moved from a twentieth century top down, you know,
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: manufacturing economy of twenty first century, digital global war, we
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: are shedding all these old institutions that are no longer
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: responsive to people's lives. And I think it's inevitable at
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: some point that the same thing will happen with our
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: political parties. We'll probably have a conservative party Progressive party,
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: but I don't think that's going to happen, you know,
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: any time in the immediate future. Now, if you want
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: to talk about a third party candidate in twenty eight
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: who can impact the election, that's one thing, and that
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: could easily happen, But I don't think that they're going
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: to be elected president. But I do think probably not
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: in my lifetime, maybe in your lifetime, but you know,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: fifteen twenty years from now, I think our parties are
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: going to go by the wayside of all these outdated
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: institutions that are no longer really where people are in
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: their lives.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Do you learn what did you learn from Hungary?
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: I think probably at some point. If you can't make
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: people's lives better and you're ripe with corruption, then you're
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: going to be noted out of office. I don't care
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: who you are, where you're from. And those people Obon
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: had driven that economy into the ground. People's lives were terrible,
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: and it was a culture of corruption.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: I'm just intrigued that it was a defector that became
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: the the It was a new party number one, or
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: you know, a reanimated old party, if you want to
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: be technical about it. I guess it was around and
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: it was somebody who was on that you know, didn't
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: come from somebody ideologically as far away from Morbon as
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: you can get. To the contrary, it came from somebody
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: who had married into the into the regime. And I
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: don't I think that's relevant.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he's not. He's not a reformer.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: But if you're trying to win a big enough majority, right,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: you're going to have to figure out how to win
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: some of the other Senate.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: Well, that's right, although you know, I don't know enough
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: about Hungarian politics, but I suspect that there's not really
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: a robust opposition infrastructure that was ready for the moment
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: as well. But I think from the broader sense, though,
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: if you're you know, a right of center populace in
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: the world, Trump has become toxic for you. I mean,
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: he's rapidly coming to a point that he has very
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: few allies around the world.
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: You said something earlier about in responding to the idea
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party was unpopular because you said something
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: about people don't feel that the party can protect them
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: financially or protect them period. Right security boyd, does that
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: sound like the Democratic Party's brand in nineteen ninety one.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: It's awfully familiar, is it not?
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: Well, it is. And you know, one way you can
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: look at politics in a very unsophisticated way, is the
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: party that's tired of losing the most, is the party
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: that's probably going to win the next election. So at
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: some point you've just gotten your head beat in so
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: much that you start making the compromises on your issues
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: to try to win an election because you just tired losing. Well,
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: I think in ninety one, yeah.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: I buy that. That's why I'm wondering if there's I
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: don't buy that there's been enough tires tired of losing
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: on the left.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: Yet. Well no, then you it's a funny thing about
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: the left. And well, let me say two things that
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: are contradictory. The first is in the world may have changed,
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: by the way, But the first is, I think you
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: have to go back to nineteen seventy two or maybe
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: eighty four, but you have to go back at least
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: that far for the Democratic Party have nominated the most
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: left wing candidate. See really, I think you go back
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: all the way McGovern to find the last time that
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: the Democrats nominated the person furthest to the left, and
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: I think I don't think Trump Caltray. You have to
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: go back to nineteen eighty It was the last time
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: the Republicans nominated the most right wing candidate in Reagan,
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: the last time. Now, a lot's changed in the world,
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: and maybe history doesn't repeat itself, but so far, at
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: least for the last over half a century, people in
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: both parties have tended to make the more pragmatic decision
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: of who did not dominate in terms of winning the
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: other thing. Though, to your point, you know, the Progressives
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: sort of you know, lost the battle lost what the
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: battle lost the war in a sense that they have
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: dominated the policy positions a Democratic party in the twenty
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: sixteen election, twenty twenty election, in the twenty twenty four election,
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: but they didn't nominate their candidate. So if you look
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: at candidate Clinton in sixteen, tru nothing like Senator Clinton.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: And if you look at candidate Biden in twenty in
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: President Biden, he had nothing to do his positions for
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: thirty eight years he was in the Senate because the
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Progressives won the debate within the party, but they didn't
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: win the campaign to nominate one of their own. So
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: the question, of course, then as we sit here is
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: you know, what do they how do they feel? Now?
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: Well, conservatives felt that way about McCain and Romney. They
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: won all the arguments internally, right, we know how they
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: and yet they couldn't ever get a They never got
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: their own candidate, right, they could never get the most
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: conservative in o eight and the most conservative in twelve.
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: So that's why, and that's why so many of them said, script,
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: we'll try Trump. Why not?
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: Right? And that's why though, as I said, you know,
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: you have to go all the way back to eighty
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: for the Republicans.
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I agree with you that eighty
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: he was the By eighty he had softened his image.
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: Reagan.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this was grated on the curve. Okay,
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: here to Bush, who.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: Was the most conservative candidate?
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: Right, Well, there were a million. Hell, Larry Presler was
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: running a crazy right wing campaign in seventy nine.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: But I'm saying that, well, mainstream candidates.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: He was clearly he was demoring, he was he was.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you can't go back since nineteen eighty forty five
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: years is the last time that happened. Now, because things
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: have changed so much, maybe it'll be different, that's in
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: twenty eight with a progressive.
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• 42:03
  Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about twenty six. You pretty much
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: believe the house is over.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: Well D said ever since Donald Trump has got elected president. Now, right,
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: I think the house is We just talk as a
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: Democrat for a moment about what I'm wildly optimistic about,
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: and then my concerns. What I'm wildly optimistic about is
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: the political environment that we're gonna have in November after
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: all the ballots have been cast. You know, Trump's drive
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: approval is six seven points lower than Clinton's in ninety four,
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: and you know Obama's in twenty ten, and you look
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: at you know, all the fifteen elections and sixteen elections
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: we've got, you know, we're going ramage like fourteen points
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: higher performance than Harris's total in twenty four right track,
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: wrong track, inflation, and so all those things, I'm wildly
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: optimistic about what the political environment's going to be. My
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: concern is the structural changes in American politics in which
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: all politics is now national and that for us as Democrats,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: we don't they're not nearly as many competitive house races
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: that we can win in a blusunami as there was
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: ten or fifteen years ago. So there currently you know,
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: fortune and thirty five House seats according to Cook Report,
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: about four hundred of them are not considered competitive right
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: now now. But if we start running the numbers over there,
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: there are nine districts currently that have a Republican member
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: of the House that Harris carried, and they're twenty one
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: districts that Trump won by less than ten points. That's
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: thirty seats. That's not bad, but that's not BLUs. And
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: you then have another fifty five or trumple one between
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: ten and twenty percent. So it just shows you, you know,
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: for Republica one like over sixty seats in twenty ten
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: when Obama had like a six point job a google
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: better than Trump right now. So it's the structure that
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: makes me concern and an the Senate. Of course it's
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: worse because we can't take the Senate back without holding
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: all of our seats. But we've got to win at
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: least to as sooner we do and win Maine and
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: North Carolina, we still got to win two states.
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, find two more in the state. And your nominees
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: are Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and Texas. Now look they're in
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: maybe throwing Montana, right, none of them. You would say
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: if I told you the presidency's going to be decided
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: through those five, you'd be in a fetal position, right.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: And we have the again, his job approval seven points
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: worse than Obama's was in Clinton's so and they won
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: seven Senate seats. So it's the structure that makes me
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: the most concerned. Is a Democrat I.
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: So good? Great wave? I have said for me, the
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: state of Iowa is the definition of wave, meaning if
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Democrats win the you know, one statewide, three house, three
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: of the four House seats, that's what I would expect
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: in a wave, maybe both state wides. Right, if things
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: are going well in Iowa is still as light red
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: as I think it still is, then like Iowa is
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: my petri dish right, because it's got a lot going on. Right,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: three competitive House seats, even the one that's not competitive
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: is open to open, an open Senate, open gov. Right,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: it's got everything going for it. And it has been,
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: and it is, in theory been a state that like
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: has a memory of voting for the other party. So
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: in theory, a in an environment like this, if you
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: can't persuade that electorate, then maybe it's just not going
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: to happen.
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: I agree with you. I think you're missing another big
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: Elm import helmet. I don't think it's light red, you know.
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: I think with Trump's victory, it is more than light red.
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: But there are a couple of things operating in Iowa. Privile.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: It's the history of Iowa, which is a little bit
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: more contrarian than just the part purely partisan state. And
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: I think in twenty eighteen, Democrats it was a good year. Obviously,
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: Democrats got more votes for Congress statewide than Republicans. More
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: importantly for twenty six I don't think there's a single
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: state that's been more impacted by tariffs den Iowa, and
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: by the war, by the way, with the cost of fertilizer,
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: so I think they are even more than other states,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: more uniquely impacted from Trump's policies than most other states.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: Well, so let's flip that script. If Democrats come up
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: short there with this, with all of this going in
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: their favor, what does that tell you long term or
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: even medium term about the Midwest and rural voters, Because
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, it.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: Doesn't tell anything new that don't already know. And you
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: know that the twenty five states, the founding fathers had
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: to balance out densely populated areas with sparsely populated and
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: how do they treat every way fairly? So they did
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: it by treating the House every state, every district is
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: the same population. So one California you have fifty two
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: members of the House and Ontana can have four. But
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: in the Senate they reward rural voters because it's two
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: senators for state, regardless of population. So they're twenty five
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: states that are largely rural that we as Democrats are
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: not competitive in, and that's fifty senators. We're not remotely competitive.
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: So if we don't win Iowa in November, it's not
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: going to tell me anything new that I haven't already seen,
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: which is we still aren't competitive with states with rural disproportionately.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: A major party. If you're not competitive in rural America,
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: you can't be.
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: A major party, right, I mean, you can't have as
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: your base the America that are college graduates.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: The math.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: The math can work in a mid term because they
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: vote hire, but it can't work. You can't be a
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: majority party of six percent of the people in the
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: country you don't have a college degree. Don't trust you, you.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: Know in your in your uh one am I I'm
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: like losing the name of what you call this in
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: your PowerPoint. Sorry. The last slide is the big contradiction slide,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: meaning everything about it is sort of laying the case
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: of how this is just going to be terrible for
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: the Republicans. A lot of things going against them. You
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: have a sour electorate about the economy, and then you
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: show this big red bar graph and this tiny little
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: blue bar graph, and it's basically representative of money and
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: the massive financial advantage nationally that Republicans have and Trump
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: has in particular over the Democrats. Look, you usually if
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: you're the minority party, you're going to get out spent
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: because the majority party, in theory has more chances to
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: raise money and stuff, but there's always a ratio. What's
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: your sense how much can this money buy the Republicans?
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: Is that? Is that? Is it save the Senate level
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: of money? Is that the way you look at it.
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: So the chart on the side deck shows the outside money,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: which shows an overwhelming, overwhelming advantage of Republicans have if
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: you look at the candidate money. On the other other hand,
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: the Democrats, the candidates themselves are are significantly out raising
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: the Republicans. And the other though, is that Trump, who
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: I don't think anybody would tell you is particularly generous die.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, he didn't step into Texas in the primary,
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: so they're gonna put two hundred million dollars in Texas
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: because of that. So I don't think Trump is all
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: that concerned about anybody other than themselves. But the last
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: thing I'll say is I think the role of money
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: is greatly exaggerating politics. In fact, I think it's a
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: lagging indicator. And that's why the candidate money it's worth
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: watching because it shows you, you know, on the other
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: side of the wall, the candidates who have the most
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: compelling candidacies are raising the most money, and there are
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: really only three buckets of people to think about in
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: the midterms. I'm not sure money can fix fix it.
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: Call what and I can go back to Virginia in
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: a moment. The first is, if you're a Republican, how
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: are you going to get your base to come out
• 50:47
  Speaker 2: and vote in this environment? And since Trump's been president,
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: that base has never turned out when Trump's not on
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: the ballot. That's the first ones. The second issue is
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: if you hate Trump, are you going to vote? Has
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: money impact you? I don't think the money matters at all.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: If you had one hundred thousand people zero degree weather
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: in the streets in Minnesota in January protesting what they
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: did in Minnesota on ice, I think they're going to
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: vote in November. And then the third group are these
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: people that probably feel compelled to vote but are pretty
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: unhappy with everybody. I don't think you can put money
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: behind a message to convince them to feel something that
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: they don't feel. And the polling, the trend lines are consistent.
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: The polling is consistent, and that remember I told you earlier,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: have the forty percent that like Trump no matter what,
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: they will stick with him. Although all it's softening a little,
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: but it's unclear whether they're gonna go out and vote
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: for him when he's on the ballot. The haters of
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: forty five percent are highly motivated, but it's at fifteen
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: percent that voted for him over Harris they I don't
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: think fell that they got what they signed up for
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: in terms of what kind of president was going to be,
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: and I think that money's not going to fix that.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: So this gets it too. And this is going to
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: sound I'm going to ask a question that's semi pollyannish,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: but it really is for the for the people listening
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: to this conversation, because I'm genuinely curious how you would
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: advise people. I'm working with a group of people that
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: are just trying to figure out how can we take
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: the obsession with swing voters in swing states and all
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: of the effort that goes to persuade these these cranky
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: independents because that's kind of what they are, right. And
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: I say this, you know, I think I count I
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: count myself as a cranking non partison, whatever that means.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: But they're never represented in legislation in Congress, right. So
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: it is the biggest problem is how do you translate
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: because you talk about right the difference between Trump being
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: president and not president is this same group of voters
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: who have been sour. And you know who's got the
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: least amount of representation in Congress that group of voters.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: And it has been the biggest disconnect because Congress behaves
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: much more partisan le than the voters who decide who
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: gets control. And we have this big disconnect. And I
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: don't know some of its structural, but how would you
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: advise people who want to empower so that swing voters
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: feel like the legislation's thinking about them first rather than
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: the partisan basis.
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: First, well, I'm not sure that the path to get
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: to where you want to get is through the passage
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: of the legislation. Chris, So what we other than the
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: big beautiful bill. This Republican in Washington has actually accomplished nothing.
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: They've passed their legislation. Every Chriss is.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: An effective period. They this is forty years.
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: Everything that Trump has done has been through executive orders.
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: Second of polished. The problem in our country right now
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: is the incentive system. Both parties are incentivized, whether it's
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: from the left or the right, it takes because of
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: the structure in our politics now, they're more vulnerable to
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: lose the primary than a general election. And so there's
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: just right now that there's no way based on the
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: incentives that you're going to get what you want through legislation,
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: and we have been and I think will continue to
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: be until we kind of break out of this standoff,
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: which I think again will probably be the next decades.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: Mostly right now, it's much easier to make an argument
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: against somebody that is for somebody. Eventually, though, someone will
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: step forward with a vision for the future, creating in
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: this new twenty first century digital global economy, opportunities for everyone,
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: regardless of education, and that's going to be the pathway
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: to people starting to vote. But right now now the
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: visions in those two big buckets hasn't mentioned. That's eighty
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: five ers. It's cultural as much as anything else. That's
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: why Biden find understand all he'd done for labor union workers,
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: why didn't people in Michigan vote for him? And the
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: answer was they were culturally connected to Trump, not to him.
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: And that's our standoff right now, and we're not gonna
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: that's not going to change, I don't think anytime soon,
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: and I don't think it's going to be based on
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: passing legislation.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: So I got some insight from somebody who was in
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: the Biden White House, and I said, you guys win
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: the presidency. Did you have two plans? One if you
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: had control of both the House and the Senate and
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: one if you didn't. And they said they did. And
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: of course, you know, January fifth hands in the Senate
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: January sixth happens, which I think created another kind of
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: incentive to push them even to go bigger, go home
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: mindset of all the great alternative what if scenarios, If
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: Biden has a Republican Senate instead of winning both of
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: those Georgia runoffs, is the Democratic Party's brand in better
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: shape today or not?
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: Well, you have to make the same argument, by the way,
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: that if the Democrats had narrowly controlled the House now
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: you know, with Trump, had been a better position.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: So I think there are a couple of things I
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: would say about that. The first was the Biden built
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: his administration under the assumption of a Republican Senate.
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: He sure did so.
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: By the time, you know, we'd won those Georgia seats,
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: he'd already picked his cabinet. But the other issue, which
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: I think is the most significant in going back to Bush.
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: So Biden is the first person elected president since George H. W.
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: Bush and eighty eight, is the first person nominated for
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: president that did not have a political base, the only base.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: He has said that out loud a few times on air.
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: You wouldn't believe the angry lefties that beat me up,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: whether it was like Pod Save America or these others.
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, I'm sorry, he doesn't have a base.
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: He never has history stint. So he basically in a
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: confederation of six different special interest groups that he owed
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: his presidency too, and he ran his presidency to satisfy them.
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: And so I'll say one last thing. This is quite interesting.
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: So I I did a lot of work at Academia,
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: and I host a lot of panels, and I invite
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: Trump people and Bush people and at Trump people and
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Biden people. And I've had two Biden people in the
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: last six months. Am I doing this where I asked
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: them point blank, if we if we didn't have COVID
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: and Biden I got to leave the basement and campaign,
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: would you have won the election in twenty twenty And
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: they both said no, they wouldn't have.
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: So these were that's interesting because I believe that.
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: These are so Twenty twenty was a highly unusual, almost
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: accidental presidency with Biden without a political base. And you mentioned,
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: by the way, the last thing, which is a similarity.
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: So you talked about how the stormer won.
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: A year ago labor Yeah, big like it looked like
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: it's kind of like Biden in it looked large.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: He won. So the strategy in the campaign was to
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: win the election, and the strategy to win the election
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: was to say nothing and just make the opposition. So
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: that's fine to win an election, But the problem is
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: when you take office and you don't know why you want.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: You wanted to win because you want to win, but
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: you didn't have any plan or what you want to
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: do when you got there. Shows up every day in
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: his government.
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: Who's who are the four or five potential presidential candidates
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: that you you have seen early on, go huh, they're
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: at least trying something new. I want to see how
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: that plays out, you know. Not that I'm not pinning
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: you down, you know, And I don't want to get
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: any of these candidates in trouble, you know type of thing.
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: But who do you feel like onto something and frankly
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: the other way. Who do you think is probably doing
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: this the wrong way?
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: Well, I, first of all, I have no idea, you know,
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: the the job description for running for president. We don't
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: know what it is yet, because we don't know what
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: the country's going to look like two years from now.
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter could have run for president every year of
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: our country's history, and the only YEARA would have won
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: was YEARI ran. Right, So we don't know where we're
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: going to be. But what I've learned is the most
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: important thing if you're running for president this far out
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: is to figure out why you're running, be able to
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: articulate it in a way that people can understand, and
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: get your voice. So Bill Clinton and Obama, who I
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: think turned both out to be pretty amnic good candidates.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: There were terrible candidates when they announced, but they, you know,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: Clinton by the end of ninety one, in a series
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: of speeches in Georgetown and I think Obama seven at
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Iowa. They got their voice.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: And so what I'm looking for right now is someone
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: who's who is trying to figure out, you know, the
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: rationale for their candidacy and it's hard. You'll take a
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: year or two and I see very little of that,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: right I'll give you one example exception to moment. I
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: see very little of that right now. And you know,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: guys that you know the tweets and you know, go
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: back and forth with Trump, that's all fine, and that
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: has nothing to do with get elected president. And I
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 2: don't see I believe this field is I guess I'll
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: just say it out. I think this probably this field
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: right now is the weakest democratic to the since two
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: thousand and four. And I don't see really right now
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: a lot going on in terms of people.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: We just said the ninety two field was weak. I'm
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: old enough to remember when they were the seven Dwarfs. Doug.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, my friend, your friend of mine, Ram Emmanuel is
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: the one person who is putting out policy right now, so.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: That I wondered if you would say it, and and
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: if you didn't, I was going to prod you on him.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: I think that too. I think he's the only one
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: doing something.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: Interesting, and he's and he's talking about real things and
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: real policies and how was going to change people's lives
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: and and you know, I told him once, you know,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: the notion of five years ago that he was running
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: for president would be like, you know, you think it's
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: an article of the Onion or some you know, some satire.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: But you know, first he's got a better resume than
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: anyone else running in terms of what he's accomplished. But
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: he also getting back to what I said to you
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: earlier about the times A Carter, I mean, we Democrats,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: we need someone. It's tough enough to take these guys
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: on and and and I'm I don't want to sit
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: here and weave the impression that rom is going to
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: be the next president. I say, but what I answer
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: your question to say, I believe is the only person
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: out there right now who's actually saying something that's real
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: and substantive and gives people a sense about that if
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: he became president, why would he want to be president?
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 2: What would he try to accomplish?
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: No, I I it is the only well of these
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: invisible primary candidates. So I completely agree everything else is
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: frankly a little performative, right. I mean, uh, I say
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: this in that you know, the more I when I
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: spend time with Gavin Newsom, I think he's more substantive
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: than than people give him credit for But the version
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: most of the people see is something that isn't very substantive,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: and it feels like empty calories and and and you know,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: it's it's certainly working in them, but it's a little
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: thin to me. And I don't know what he's going
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: to What is other than learning how to oppost Trump?
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: What is? What is? You know, what is your story
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: going to be about? Well, first of all, what is
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: your narrative?
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: First of all, he I mean, he's a governor of
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: a state that's bigger than all but seven countries. Yeah,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: and he's governed it well, he's articulate. Uh, he looks
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: like he could be president, right, and and you know,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: I think he's got muscle tone of mixing it up.
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: Having said all that, a big issue that he's going
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: to have against whoever he runs against is defending what
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: he did in California from a policy standpoint, in terms
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: of how the rest of the country feels about that
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: becoming national policy. And I think that's going to be.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: Well, he's admitted it. He now he thinks it's a
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: branding problem, right, that the brand of California has been
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: so portrayed us so far left that it's more of
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: a perception problem than a substance problem. But it doesn't
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: matter whether it's perception or substance. Perception matters here, right.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: You know, you can complain about how it happened if
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: it's if that's the issue, that's the issue. And you know,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: I I one of my little cheap taglines of late
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: is you know, I think I know two places where
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Democrats ought to not look for their next nominee, and
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: that is San Francisco or Boston. And you know, when
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: you think about the popular vote, Democrats have lost the
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: popular vote three times. The last three times they've lost
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: the popular vote was from a San Francisco Democrat or
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: two Massachusetts Democrats. Well, I think in those two places
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: are seen as sort of liberal headquarters, right, you know,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: for better or for worse.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: Well, I think there's one sort of factory about California
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: you just can't get away from, which is that people
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: are leaving there in droves. Yeah, and why are they
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: leaving there? You're going to lose probably four or five
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: congressional seats because of that. So uh and then in
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: terms of of where where someone should not be from, uh,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: it shouldn't be from I think Washington of the Senate,
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: but the side of defending, uh, the status quo. So,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: for instance, I don't think Boris Here's gonna run for president.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: He's been in Washington for thirty five years. No one
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: thinks them as being from Washington.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: No one's gonna believe he's an insider, right right.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: Reagan came from California. It was a little bit of
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: a different state. No one thought of him as some
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: you know, crazy California. So it's it's not just a
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: literal zip code, it's a it's a frame of mind.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: I believe it. Doug Yeah, yeah, but I believe that.
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: I don't have it. That's been the next president. I
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: can tell you this. They're going to be on the
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: side of breaking things, not on the side of defending
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: the status quo. And that's the single most important. I mean,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 2: you're on the wrong side of history if you're defending
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: the current state because it's not working for people.
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that. I guess we're going to get
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: a governor or even or someone else. But I agree.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be a conventional senator.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: But guy that wrote Canal who I think. I like him,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: I respect him. I think he's really interesting. He's a
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: little bit further to the left than I am on
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: them some things. He's got a lot of elements of
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: where America is right now right, and he's doing a
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: lot of work. You know, you're seeing that, you know,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: the populous left and right had more in common than
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: than the people in the middle. And you know, you've
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: seen him working with Massey and others. You saw Omar
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: the other day Congress order for a minute start of
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: talking about, you know, working with Margie Taylor Green and
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: and that's where the that's where the animating force in
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: American politics is now. It's it's the populace left in
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: the right, and it's largely and they come together against
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: the system. I wrote a ledia with I wrote about
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: twelve or thirteen years ago where artic for political call
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: which side of the barricade are you on? Yeah, defining,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: and I believe that's the world we're in right now.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: But people mundabi Wan in New York, they say you
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: want it because he's the social h No, he didn't
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: want as a social one because he was breaking things,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: not the status quo. And he was a generational change.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: And when he went to the Oval Office, and now
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: with Trump, and everybody said, well, how to can believe they
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: got along? Well, they had a lot more in common
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: than you'd think. They certainly have a lot of differences,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: but right.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: No, and and everybody has the uh. I always say,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: everybody has the combination for Trump. It's not hard to
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: make to have a good event with Trump. If you
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: want to have a good event with Trump, whether it's
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: a photo op or whatever, it's he's he's weirdly an
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: easy mark. He is. Yeah, and and uh, the savvier
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: politicians have figured that out, whether it's Gretchen Whitmer and
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: one end of the spectrum or Mom Donnie on the
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: other end of the spectrum. Anyway, mister Sosnik, I always
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: learn a lot from you.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: So sme here with you. Thanks for having me to look.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: Forward to my next semi quarterly report. Got it, brother,