Latest / Wicked Radio with Bill Adams / 11-6: Rough Stock Market Tumble, But Are Elon And Buffett Right About The Long Term?

Transcript

11-6: Rough Stock Market Tumble, But Are Elon And Buffett Right About The Long Term? · Wicked Radio with Bill Adams

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Well, the first piece of good news today is it's Friday.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: You made it.
• 0:07
  Speaker 3: You're alive.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: You're here. Sun is out, maybe, depending on where you
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: are in the country. And it's a great day to
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: be alive, and we have a weekend on our hands.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Not a good day to check out your 401k.
• 0:18
  Speaker 4: Ugh.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: But that's just it. I've been interested in this since
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: the election and pre-election, because everyone was talking about the
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: reaction of the stock market, right? And I don't... I've
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: said this lots of times, and you probably feel the
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: same way. I don't believe in coincidences. I believe in
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: pattern recognition. When it comes to people who make the news,
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: and the news is all about personalities. Personalities drive the
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: news cycle, at least these days, especially, it seems, when
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: it comes to investing. I'm going to say this like
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: 15 times today, just so it's clear, and for people
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: who join on later, which a lot of people do,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: do not take investing advice from me. Please don't do that.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But take it from people who actually have made a
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: lot of money in the stock market, in investments, in
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: building companies. Think of You think of the richest people
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: in the world, who do you think of? These days,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: because he's another one of those that drives the news,
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: you think of Elon. And I think he actually happens
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: to be the richest guy in the world. What's the
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: other name that comes up? Warren Buffett, right? Berkshire Hathaway.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Another guy that I wasn't as familiar with until this
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: week and started to listen to him, and a lot
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: of his words are popping up again these days, is
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Peter Lynch, the guy known from Fidelity. Seems as though
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: some of the richest guys in the world are all
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: saying the same things about investing. It's not about today.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: It's long term. Again, not my advice. This is advice
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: from rich guys who know how this stuff works. And
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: they all seem to be saying the same thing. And
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: so is, by the way, we both need to chime
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: in on this too because he's your president. President Trump
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: said the same thing and hinted at that as well.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Bad day yesterday, like really bad. Long term, probably the
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: still best option. Anyway, we'll get into it again. Happy weekend.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Thanks for being here. What a week.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Emotional week in many ways for a lot of people.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: And in this case, you know, if you're looking to
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: retire like this week, not the time, but again, long-term,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: things have a way of settling out. Anyway, thanks for
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: finding me with Wicked Radio, the live stream, Monday through Friday,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: 8 a.m. Eastern time-ish, except for when I'm late like today,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: and on the replay on X and YouTube and Facebook.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: A lot of you this week found the audio podcast.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Thanks so much for doing that. Your favorite audio podcast platforms.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: I upload that right after the live stream. All right,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: what are we talking about? How bad was the drop yesterday?
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: This is from Grok. I could have gone to any
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: of the summary wrap-up AI systems, but this was the
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: worst session for the major indexes, indices, if you will,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: since April of 2025. Blah, blah, blah. There has to
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: be sectors finished lower, technology being the leading decline. Interesting,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: because everybody predicted this about the AI data centers, right?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: There's fear out there and speculation based on yesterday that, Well,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the communists are coming in. They're going to shut down
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: all the AI data centers. Already, by the way, the
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: incoming governor of Texas, Hina Hossa, she said the ones
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: that are already being built are still going to be
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: under production. Remember, too, with all this stuff, there's a
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: lot they say when they're running for office and then
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: what actually happens when money's involved. Just keep that in mind.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: They say the drop was driven by mainly a heavy
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: sell-off in AI and semiconductor stocks. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: You know the whole deal. Also, And this should be
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: our kickoff on this whole thing. What does President Trump
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: say about this? You know, and this is where he
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: kind of goes into, not Builder Trump, not Investor Trump.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: This is President Trump, and he kind of has to
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: say this. Listen to what he says at the end, though,
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: and this was on Truth Social yesterday. I won't read
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: the whole thing to you. I promise you I won't
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: do that to you. Stock markets have one of the
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: worst days in history, based on the results of the elections.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Sad thing to watch, an exclamation point. Took so much
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: work to get us in the level, blah, blah, blah.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Your 401Ks have therefore dropped. Remember, it wasn't Republicans, it
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: was Democrats. But here's the important part. He says at
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: the end, do not fear, however. We will be soon,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: one way or another, bigger and stronger than ever before.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Make America great again, President. Okay, so he's got to be,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: this is where, and remember, as a figurehead, a president
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: has to be a cheerleader for good things to happen
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: and get consumer confidence going and people investing and all
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: that good stuff, right? So that's what he says about it.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: But it's interesting because this clip started to circulate everywhere.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: It's not a new clip, but well, actually, Elon reposted
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: it of himself, too. So I guess we can call
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: it a new clip. But it was interesting. I thought
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: that the actual richest guy in the world had said
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: this pretty recently. And we'll call it a new clip
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: about investing and what it actually means and how weird
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the stock market is. You're going to notice this pattern.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: I talk about this pattern recognition, especially among the richest
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: guys in the world. You could call them the most
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: successful guys in the world. They all seem to say
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: the same thing. So are they right about the long
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: term in the stock market?
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Let's see. Here was the first clip.
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: The stock market is it's a very strange thing. It's
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: kind of like, you know, I think it's Warren Buffett's
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: sort of metaphor or analogy is, you know, stock markets
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: like having someone stand at the edge of your property
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: or your house and yell prices to buy or sell
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: your house.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Every day.
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: And sometimes they take their meds and sometimes they don't.
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: So sometimes the person yelling out the price of your
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: house is having a good day and sometimes they're having
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: a bad day. But it's still the same house.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: So what he's getting at there, I think, now he
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: referenced Warren Buffett, which is interesting. So Elon has noticed
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: his pattern recognition as well. It's still the same house.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: So he was talking about, I think that clip is
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: from a Tesla shareholders meeting or something, probably is. But
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: he's talking about a solid company is still going to
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: be there over the long term, regardless of the emotion
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: of the day-to-day, you know, stock market. Huh. Okay, so
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: that's the first thing. And more on Warren Buffett and
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Elon here in just a second. Another guy I wasn't
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: too familiar with before all this stuff, but he's also,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know, what do I call it, going viral?
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: his words are saying the same thing in a downturn.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: This guy is Peter Lynch. I wasn't that familiar with him,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: to be honest with you. And again, don't take investing
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: advice from me. Again, notice how they always say the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: similar things. And they always come across with this too.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: And it's fascinating to me. Richest people in the world.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: And they say, stock market tomorrow? I don't know. They
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: all say it. They're all like, I couldn't tell you.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: And they're fully, maybe it's because they're so rich. They're
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: so honest about How volatile this stuff is. That's wild
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: to me. I mean, you would think that some of
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: the biggest investors in the world were like, well, look
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: at my algorithm. In 10 days, it's going to be this.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: And in two days, and in a year, it's going
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: to be this. They don't know. They really don't know.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: All they do know is they say, this is about
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: long-term investing. And they all seem to say that. So
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: here's Peter Lynch from a pretty recent interview. And then
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: we'll go to an older one.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: They spend hours, get $ 50 off on an airplane flight.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: They look at everything. And they'll put $ 10, 000. And some
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: crazy stock they heard on the bus. And they have
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: no idea what they're doing. And some of them have
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: done this awful term before I got in the business
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: called play the market.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Play the market.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: You don't like that term. Sometimes a noun, there's a verb.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: It's a very dangerous verb. Play the market is not
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: what you're doing.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: What he's talking about here is, again, today I'll pick Tesla.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Today I'm going to buy Tesla. Tomorrow I'm going to
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: sell it. Just again, not for me. The richest guys
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: in the world who made most of their money in
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: the stock market are telling you that's not how you
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: do it. Seems to be a pattern there. There's another
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: one from that Peter Lynch guy, best known from Fidelity.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: This is what he says about it. And he talks
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: about what really this is all about, right? Emotion and
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: pain tolerance. I mean, it sucks to open up last
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: night and then this morning to look at my 401k
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: app and to see where it is. You're probably the
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: same exact way or individual stocks you have or whatever. Yeah,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: that sucks. But that's probably not the game we should
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: be in if we're going to go by day by
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: day unless you're trying to retire today. This same guy,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Peter Lynch, talks about pain tolerance.
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: The question, what's your tolerance for pain? I mean, the
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: stock market's a very good place to be, but I
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: can toss a coin now. Is it going to be
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: lower two years from now, higher? I don't know. More
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: people lost money waiting for corrections and anticipating corrections than
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: the actual corrections. Well, you ought to look in the
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: mirror every day and say, what am I going to
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: do if the market goes down 10%? What do you
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: do if it goes down 20? Am I going to sell?
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: Am I going to get out? If that's your answer,
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: you should be reducing it to that.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Again, that's the part that fascinates me about these guys,
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: and they all say it. You'll hear it from all
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: three of these guys and every other big investor on
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Wall Street. What's it going to do tomorrow? No idea.
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Because they're beholden, too, to the emotion of what's out there,
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: and the emotion always calms down. And we talked about
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: this now, waiting about for, you know, waiting to, waiting.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: for the right time to jump into the market, you know,
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: waiting for the right time. I've definitely done that too.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: You know, we're all guilty of it. Interesting. There's that
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: pattern recognition again. Success leaves clues. Warren Buffett talking about
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: the same thing. More people have lost money waiting to
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: get in instead of just riding the thing out. They
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: all say it.
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: So fear spreads instantaneously. Confidence comes back through the door
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: one at a time. I mean, people do not... There's
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: not such a thing as mass resumption of confidence, but
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: there is... Fear just takes over. And then that'll happen again.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: And what is your rule about investing?
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: Well, you want to be greedy when others are fearful
• 9:46
  Speaker 5: and fearful when others are greedy. Right.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: We've all heard that, right? It's like almost like a,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it's part of American lexicon now. It's,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: you know, buy low, sell high. I mean, it's true,
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: but long term. is what they're talking about. There's one
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: that I wasn't familiar. We've all heard that phrase. There's
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: one I wasn't familiar with, though, personally, until this week.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: And I'm hearing it a lot these days. I was
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: not familiar with this. We'll talk about yesterday's stock market fall,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: but what's coming to in January when the dsa controlled
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: democrats get in charge that that's going to be all
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: gridlock because we know that we were making the joke
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: the other day here on this podcast trump is going
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: to have and he did it by the way he
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: did a video where he brought out a hat that
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: said veto instead of the red hat is now saying
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: veto it's going to be gridlock because he's going to
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: shoot down all of the stuff i had never heard
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: this but investors have said it a lot since tuesday
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: the stock market loves gridlock now again Don't take stock
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: market or investing advice from me. I don't understand why
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: they love gridlock. Bunch of theories out there. I guess
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: they're all pretty valid in one way or another. But
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: apparently that's a thing. Well, as of yesterday, the gridlock
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: hasn't happened yet. We're not there yet. That doesn't start
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: until January. Now, what we're facing now or what we're
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: seeing in the stock market now and actually in casual
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: conversation with people is just speculation and fear about what's coming.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: That's what led to that downfall yesterday, apparently, they say.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: But the Wall Street loves gridlock line, I had never
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: heard that. Again, just keep that in mind. But isn't
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: it interesting what Warren Buffett said there? Again, the same
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: exact thing that all these rich guys have always said. Yeah,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: we've always heard buy low, sell high. Absolutely, if you
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: can work it out that way. But they're all saying
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the exact same thing. Short-term panic over this kind of
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: stuff is not the way to play it, and you
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: shouldn't be in the stock market. They say. It doesn't
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: come from me. It's coming from them. Going back to
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: it again, because Elon had talked about that. This is
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: from that same clip going viral because he reposted again
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: regarding yesterday's stock fall. Interesting. Once again, the same rich
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: guys who have all done well over the long term
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: in the stock market say the exact same thing. The
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: fascinating part to me is you ask them about short-term,
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: they're like, I honestly have no idea. But they will
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: tell you long term, it's probably your best bet. With
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: one caveat, if you do your research into a company
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: you believe in, there's going to be dips and falls
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: and rises and peaks and valleys. But long term, if
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: you think you believe in the company, apparently that's the key.
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: I think that it's going to sound very straightforward. But
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: you want to really buy stock in companies where you
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: think the product that that– company makes will be better
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: in the future? Is that company going to make more
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: and better products? Do you love the products that that
• 12:45
  Speaker 4: company makes, and are they going to keep doing that?
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: I think Tesla, as I've just gone through, Tesla has
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: a track record of having made many great products, and
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: we're going to make many more future great products, and
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: we're going to scale production, and I think we've demonstrated
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: a level of innovation that is Extremely rare.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: I think, again, this clip going viral of him talking
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: about that because he reposted it. It was recent, though.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I think it was before Tesla investors, I think, or SpaceX.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I'll have to look that up. So he's got to
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: say that before them. I get it. But again, all
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: of the guys from the clips that I've featured here
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: in this episode today have said the same thing. Warren Buffett,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: that Peter Lynch guy from Fidelity, and Elon have all
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: said the same thing. Invest in companies you believe in
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: that'll do good things down the road. This is them,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: not me. Trust me. You're not in it for the
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: short term, and if that drives you crazy day by
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: day checking your stocks, you're going to drive yourself crazy,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: and this game isn't for you, apparently, is what they say.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: And you've got to look at the future long term
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: and stop waiting to jump into something. That's what they
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: all say.
• 13:52
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Take it from me. Take it from them. But here's
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: the takeaway for all of this stuff. You can't base
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: anything on one day. You can't. I mean, how could we?
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: All of these guys will say the same thing. I
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: don't know what's going to happen tomorrow. But usually if
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: things are solid in the future, things seem to settle out.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: And that's reflected in what they're saying about the stock market.
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: So I don't know.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to panic over yesterday. It was ugly
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: to see. I mean, that sucked to lope into your
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: 401k app and be like, oh, hate that. In fact,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: I shouldn't have. Like you see that it's a stock
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: market tumble. And you know you're not going to like
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: dip out of your 401k today. I just wouldn't even,
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: I'm not even going to look until things settle down
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But that's interesting. I'm going to research
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: this a little bit more, too, that phrase I keep
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: hearing over and over and over again since Tuesday. I mean,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: I've seen it a ton. Very, very recognizable people saying
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: the exact same thing. We'll see if it's true come January. Apparently,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: the stock market loves gridlock.
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: It's a new one on me. Let's see. But it's
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: about not panicking. First of all, it's a great news
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Friday because you've got a weekend on your hands. Enjoy it.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Be safe. Have fun, no matter what your plans are.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Thanks for finding me and sharing along the audio podcast,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: which a lot of you found this week. Thanks so
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: much for the downloads and shares and likes and follows
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: and all that stuff. And also the live stream on
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: replay on X and YouTube and Facebook. As always, we're
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: live 8 a.m. Eastern Time, 8 a.m.-ish, except for today,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: on X and YouTube and Facebook. Make it a wicked
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: awesome weekend, and I'll talk to you on Monday.