Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Full Show Podcast: 07 November 2024

Transcript

Full Show Podcast: 07 November 2024 · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

0:01
Speaker 1: The issues, the interviews and the inside. Ryan Bridge you
0:08
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty four on the early edition with Smith City,
0:12
Speaker 1: New Zealand's furniture beds and a play at store news Dogs.
0:15
Speaker 1: It'd be good morning.
0:16
Speaker 2: It is six half to five. Welcome to your Thursday morning.
0:18
Speaker 2: Great to have your company coming up on the program.
0:20
Speaker 2: Before six. We've got a celebrating Republican. We've got a
0:25
Speaker 2: polster on how this happened and who voted for who.
0:28
Speaker 2: Mitch McCann is in Michigan for US today. Brad Olsen
0:31
Speaker 2: on the market's crypto has gone crazy. The US dollars
0:34
Speaker 2: shot up. Ours has come down in the stock exchange open.
0:37
Speaker 2: Obviously there'll be reaction from them. That's coming up shortly. Also,
0:41
Speaker 2: we are hoping for Sir John Key for reaction in
0:43
Speaker 2: the next couple of minutes. And the NCA exam that's
0:47
Speaker 2: way too hard for students.
0:50
Speaker 1: The agenda.
0:51
Speaker 2: It is Thursday, the seventh of November. Trump is back, Baby.
0:55
Speaker 3: I'm asking every citizen all across our land to join
0:58
Speaker 3: me in this noble and righteous endeavor. That's what it is.
1:02
Speaker 3: It's time to put the divisions of the past four
1:06
Speaker 3: years behind us. It's time to unite.
1:09
Speaker 2: Still, no one has heard from Kamala Harris, although they
1:11
Speaker 2: are expecting they might.
1:13
Speaker 1: We have not heard from the Vice president's campaign team yet.
1:16
Speaker 4: This morning, we have.
1:17
Speaker 2: Not heard from the Vice President's official.
1:19
Speaker 5: Office team yet.
1:22
Speaker 2: It's a big day for David Seymour today his Treaty Bill.
1:24
Speaker 2: The exact wording of the bill will be revealed. A
1:27
Speaker 2: draft was released in September, you'll remember that, but it
1:29
Speaker 2: has been changed since then. It means two things. One
1:33
Speaker 2: lux and will be here when it drops, because he's
1:35
Speaker 2: going to be in Peru next week for APEX. But
1:37
Speaker 2: crucially they've stolen some thunder from the protest that our
1:40
Speaker 2: planned for next week, which will still happen, but now
1:43
Speaker 2: obviously not on the day the bill drops. To the
1:46
Speaker 2: Middle East. BENJAMINETTNYA who has fired as Defense Minister and
1:49
Speaker 2: a member of his war cabinet.
1:50
Speaker 5: Over the past few months, trust has cracked between me
1:53
Speaker 5: and the Minister of Defense. Significant gaps were discovered between
1:58
Speaker 5: me and Gallant and the management of the military campaign.
2:01
Speaker 2: Our unemployment rates risen to four point eight percent, up
2:04
Speaker 2: from four point six in the last quarter. It's the
2:06
Speaker 2: highest since December twenty twenty, but not as bad as predicted.
2:09
Speaker 2: And remember the Reserve Bank forecast five, so it could
2:12
Speaker 2: put the big seventy five basis point rate cut off
2:15
Speaker 2: the table later this month eight after five News Talks, AB.
2:19
Speaker 1: News and Views You Trust to start your day is
2:22
Speaker 1: Billy Edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's
2:26
Speaker 1: Furniture Beds and a flying Store. News Talks dB.
2:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, a pretty resounding victory for Donald Trump. Obviously the
2:32
Speaker 2: votes have still been counted, but the first time since
2:35
Speaker 2: the eighteen hundreds that a president has made a non
2:37
Speaker 2: consecutive return to the Oval office. Not just that, but
2:40
Speaker 2: at the moment, winning the popular vote, flipping the Senate
2:44
Speaker 2: likely to keep the House, and you got the keys
2:46
Speaker 2: to the White House. John Key is, Sir John Keyes,
2:49
Speaker 2: the former Prime Ministries with US is in San Francisco
2:51
Speaker 2: at the moment, Sir John, Welcome to the show.
2:54
Speaker 6: Lordy Ron, How are you very well?
2:56
Speaker 2: Thank you? What are you thinking about what happened last night?
3:01
Speaker 6: Yeah? Look, I think there's a few things. I mean, versusly,
3:03
Speaker 6: you've got to give Donald Trump some credit for what
3:06
Speaker 6: has been a very comprehensive when they's pointed out, he's
3:10
Speaker 6: really taking control of every part of government really from
3:14
Speaker 6: Congress right through. I think secondly, I'm not as surprised.
3:20
Speaker 6: I mean, I know, from a New Zealand perspective and
3:22
Speaker 6: from a lot of the media perspective, they couldn't understand
3:25
Speaker 6: it and they couldn't see it. But you know, once
3:28
Speaker 6: you've got polls indicating that, you know, two thirds or
3:31
Speaker 6: if not more, of the country think you're going in
3:33
Speaker 6: the wrong direction when the big issues are the issues
3:36
Speaker 6: you're campaigning on. This in this case with Donald Trump,
3:40
Speaker 6: they were the economy, you know, the border and law
3:43
Speaker 6: and order. Then it changes very likely and then I
3:47
Speaker 6: think the last bit of it, and it's a bit
3:48
Speaker 6: I think everyone's really struggled to understand. And Donald Trump
3:52
Speaker 6: really said that last night when he was talking, is
3:55
Speaker 6: that this is a movement. And I think a lot
3:58
Speaker 6: of us might feel uncomfortable of it. We might not
4:01
Speaker 6: like it. There might be elements of it that we
4:03
Speaker 6: just can't understand. But trufully, there is a movement happening
4:07
Speaker 6: around the world. And I think you've seen it a
4:09
Speaker 6: bit with Brexit. You've said, we've seen it with Donald
4:12
Speaker 6: Trump and the grouping behind him, And you know, I
4:17
Speaker 6: means say you can feel you know, all sorts of
4:21
Speaker 6: emotions about that, but you can't deny that it's happening.
4:24
Speaker 2: It also turns, does it not? The identity politics on
4:27
Speaker 2: its head. But you've got a billionaire who's getting support
4:30
Speaker 2: from the struggling middle class. You've got a Republican who's
4:33
Speaker 2: getting union workers. You've got a white old man who's
4:35
Speaker 2: getting an increased share of black and Latino voters.
4:40
Speaker 6: Yeah, well that's what I mean. I think the question is, well,
4:43
Speaker 6: what brings all of those groupings together? You know, what
4:47
Speaker 6: are making those people say, you know, President Trump is
4:50
Speaker 6: my president, He's the person I want to see in
4:53
Speaker 6: the White House. How they totally together because they're very
4:56
Speaker 6: disparate groups.
4:58
Speaker 7: It's all of that.
5:00
Speaker 6: Well, that's right, fiercely one. They are doing it really tough.
5:03
Speaker 6: I mean, it's easy to be on the West Coast
5:06
Speaker 6: or the East coast and that's all left fland and great.
5:08
Speaker 6: But actually out there in the middle of America and
5:10
Speaker 6: rust belt America, those flyover states, people are striking from
5:15
Speaker 6: paycheck to paycheck. And we can sit around talking about
5:18
Speaker 6: globalizational as things. They just say, the system ain't fair,
5:21
Speaker 6: it's broken, and it's left me behind. And I think
5:24
Speaker 6: there's something weirdly in Donald Trump's personality. He is a
5:29
Speaker 6: bit of a brawler, a bit of a fighter. He
5:33
Speaker 6: kind of identifies with these people. And I'm saying someone earlier,
5:37
Speaker 6: I mean, this is a guy who gets shot in
5:39
Speaker 6: the head. You can't fake this stuff. And he gets
5:42
Speaker 6: up in the first reactions to say fight, fight fight.
5:46
Speaker 6: No one else in the world does that, right, I
5:48
Speaker 6: mean nothing, there's something in there about it. And I'm
5:51
Speaker 6: not not idolizing. I'm just saying it's real that there's
5:55
Speaker 6: a movement and.
5:56
Speaker 2: There's nothing sanitized about him like there often is about
5:58
Speaker 2: other politicians. What about the tariffs? This is our big
6:01
Speaker 2: worry this morning. You've got exporters, the primary industries, waking
6:05
Speaker 2: up in New Zealand thinking, oh god, we are about
6:08
Speaker 2: to be hit by ten twenty percent. We don't know.
6:11
Speaker 2: Plus you've got the trade war potential with China. How
6:14
Speaker 2: worried should we be here?
6:17
Speaker 6: Yeah, okay, I don't think there's any doubt that Donald
6:19
Speaker 6: Trump will deliver what he said, which is an America
6:22
Speaker 6: First policy. On the other side of the Queen, the
6:25
Speaker 6: positive news is we had long we have a long
6:28
Speaker 6: seting relationship as historical allies, we're part of the Five
6:32
Speaker 6: Eyes Agreement. We are seen as a sort of friendly country,
6:36
Speaker 6: and I think there'll be good political relations between the
6:39
Speaker 6: New Zealand government and the new administration. I think there
6:44
Speaker 6: will be some tariffs and me he's talking about sixty
6:46
Speaker 6: percent potentially in China and ten to twenty percent around
6:50
Speaker 6: the rest of the world. But of course there has
6:52
Speaker 6: some quite big repercussions, not only for us, but actually
6:55
Speaker 6: for the consumers that pay that. So I wonder whether
6:59
Speaker 6: that might be did a little bit actually, and then
7:02
Speaker 6: the counterargment. All of it is as you can see
7:05
Speaker 6: the stock market reaction. You know, the US economy for
7:09
Speaker 6: at least for a period of time, is going to
7:11
Speaker 6: be very stimulatory, and it is going to spend money,
7:14
Speaker 6: it's going to invest, and the capital market's going to
7:17
Speaker 6: be very vibrant. So you know, there is some downsides
7:21
Speaker 6: for New Zealand. I'm not trying to sugar coat that.
7:23
Speaker 6: And they do consume me because we need trade. But
7:28
Speaker 6: I think I think it won't all be the won't
7:30
Speaker 6: all be negative, the won't will be one way traffic.
7:32
Speaker 2: What does Luxeon need to do right now to try
7:35
Speaker 2: and get us in Trump's ear. Do you think that
7:37
Speaker 2: we can use the primacy to get a special deal here,
7:40
Speaker 2: a special exception?
7:42
Speaker 6: Well, I think it can help. I mean, as I said,
7:45
Speaker 6: you know, we do have a very good relationship and
7:48
Speaker 6: to a certain degree. You know, Donald Trump's been notorious
7:50
Speaker 6: for being a deal doer. I mean, like, I think
7:53
Speaker 6: they like New Zealand. We're a little country. A lot
7:55
Speaker 6: of what they buy from us they need anyway. So yeah,
7:59
Speaker 6: I'm not sure we're going to be hammered like like
8:02
Speaker 6: you know, there'll be some other countries which would be
8:04
Speaker 6: much more concerned and worried. I think the New Zealand
8:08
Speaker 6: would be, so yeah, Look, I think the government's just
8:11
Speaker 6: got to do with its job is ZOO, which is
8:13
Speaker 6: to form the best relationship it can with any administration.
8:16
Speaker 6: I mean, the people of New Zealand and the government
8:19
Speaker 6: of New Zealand doesn't elect the president of Thesied States
8:22
Speaker 6: of America, whoever that person is, but it's their job
8:25
Speaker 6: to have the best relationship they can and you know,
8:28
Speaker 6: who knows. We'll see how it all plays out.
8:31
Speaker 2: Thank you very much for your time, sir John. I'll
8:33
Speaker 2: let you get back to your day in San Francisco.
8:35
Speaker 2: Great to have you on the show, No worries mate,
8:37
Speaker 2: all of us, Sir John Key, former Prime Minister. It's
8:40
Speaker 2: fourteen after five. News Talks, they've been the news.
8:42
Speaker 1: You need this morning and the in depth analysis early
8:45
Speaker 1: edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's furniture
8:49
Speaker 1: beds and a playing store. News Talks, they'd be international
8:53
Speaker 1: correspondence with ends and eye insurance, Peace of mind for
8:57
Speaker 1: New Zealand Business.
8:59
Speaker 2: Seventeen after five. You're on Newstalks there, b Donald Trump
9:02
Speaker 2: has taken well, pretty much everything you could possibly want
9:05
Speaker 2: from this election at this stage. Mitch McCann's a US
9:07
Speaker 2: correspondents with US Live from Detroit, Michigan. Mitch, what are
9:11
Speaker 2: people saying? What's reaction like on the ground there?
9:13
Speaker 8: Yeah, good morning, Ryan.
9:14
Speaker 1: Well.
9:15
Speaker 8: I spent last night in the last couple of hours
9:17
Speaker 8: at the Democratic watch party here in Detroit, and I
9:20
Speaker 8: can tell you he wasn't much of a party. The
9:22
Speaker 8: music might have been playing, but there was no one
9:23
Speaker 8: on the dance floor and people were leaving early. We
9:26
Speaker 8: actually had to go outside to do some work because
9:29
Speaker 8: they shut the event down and turned off the lights
9:31
Speaker 8: because everyone was going home. Now as I've just come
9:34
Speaker 8: on here, with you. I texted this morning a Republican
9:36
Speaker 8: contact and named Brian Panabecker. He started a group called
9:40
Speaker 8: Auto Workers for Trump twenty twenty four. A big Republican supporter.
9:45
Speaker 8: He told me for a long now, in the last
9:46
Speaker 8: couple of months that Donald Trump was going to win
9:48
Speaker 8: easily in the state. I text him, how are you feeling, Brian,
9:51
Speaker 8: and he just replied, as you came on the air
9:53
Speaker 8: and said like a million bucks with five exclamation points.
9:56
Speaker 8: So there's a lot of happy Republicans here.
9:58
Speaker 2: Are we going to hear from Carmela Harris? We are.
10:01
Speaker 8: We're going to hear from her. It's reported around four
10:04
Speaker 8: pm Eastern time, which find my estimations is around midday
10:08
Speaker 8: in New Zealand. She's going to address a crowd, I
10:10
Speaker 8: believe at Howard University where she had hoped to give
10:13
Speaker 8: a victory speech last night. So we're going to hear
10:15
Speaker 8: from her at midday. We haven't heard from Joe Biden yet.
10:18
Speaker 8: He's yet to put out an official statement. We have
10:21
Speaker 8: heard from George W. Bush, the forty third president, this morning,
10:24
Speaker 8: who congratulated Donald Trump, but nothing from Harris and Biden
10:28
Speaker 8: just yet.
10:28
Speaker 2: All right, We'll stand by midday. We're expecting Karmala Harris
10:31
Speaker 2: to talk. That's Mitch mccannon, Detroit, Michigan, eighteen after five.
10:36
Speaker 2: And on the other side of the world, this is interesting.
10:38
Speaker 2: German carmakers. Their share prices have been slashed overnight and
10:43
Speaker 2: this is a direct result of the tariffs that Trump
10:46
Speaker 2: is going to impose to try and save places like Michigan.
10:49
Speaker 2: You've had BMW shares down seven percent, Mercedes Benz six percent,
10:54
Speaker 2: Volkswagen and Porsche five percent. This because they are worried
10:58
Speaker 2: about the tariffs that Trump will impose try and revive
11:01
Speaker 2: his own manufacturing industries, and that is the biggest market
11:05
Speaker 2: for those German auto makers. Those German car makers, America
11:10
Speaker 2: is their biggest export market, so it will hurt. That's
11:14
Speaker 2: why the share price has been affected. Nineteen after five.
11:16
Speaker 2: More markets from Brad Olson.
11:18
Speaker 1: Next, the first Word on the News of the Day
11:22
Speaker 1: Early edition with Ryan Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's
11:25
Speaker 1: Furniture Beds and a play store.
11:27
Speaker 2: News Talk say, welcome to your Thursday morning. It's a
11:30
Speaker 2: brave new world. Sir John Key has just told this
11:32
Speaker 2: program that Trump's tarifs will hurt our primary producers. We've
11:37
Speaker 2: got coming up after the news at five point thirty
11:39
Speaker 2: Seawan Trender, who's a leading polster in the United States.
11:43
Speaker 2: Right now, markets are reacting strongly. The Dow has surged,
11:46
Speaker 2: Bitcoin going nuts, the US dollar is stronger. Brad Olson's
11:49
Speaker 2: with us, Brad, how strong are these movements?
11:53
Speaker 9: They are fairly considerable. I mean, if you look at
11:55
Speaker 9: some of the stock market reactions that we've seen this
11:58
Speaker 9: morning in the US, I think if they kept it
12:01
Speaker 9: up and be on the Dow, for example, I think
12:03
Speaker 9: the fifth biggest points movement in history. But to be fair,
12:08
Speaker 9: they're not the biggest percentage shift, So I think really
12:11
Speaker 9: what you're seeing is that, yes, there's definitely a strong
12:13
Speaker 9: market reaction. There's probably still going to be some volatility
12:17
Speaker 9: in the market as everyone tries to pick not only
12:20
Speaker 9: today but over the next couple of weeks and up
12:22
Speaker 9: until the twentieth of January when President elect Trump is
12:26
Speaker 9: sworn in, what exactly is going to happen first, Because
12:29
Speaker 9: this is I think a big challenge for everyone looking
12:33
Speaker 9: at the economic ramifications of the change and president is
12:36
Speaker 9: what of the many economic policies is he going to
12:39
Speaker 9: pursue first? Is it going to be tax changes? Is
12:42
Speaker 9: it going to be tariffs, Is it going to be deregulation,
12:45
Speaker 9: Is it going to.
12:46
Speaker 2: Be them all at once?
12:47
Speaker 9: Because there are quite a lot of options on the
12:49
Speaker 9: table where they do have very different impacts on quite
12:53
Speaker 9: different parts of the economy.
12:54
Speaker 2: If you're an investor right now in New Zealand looking
12:57
Speaker 2: at the stock market, should you be paying too much
12:59
Speaker 2: attention or is this going to fluctuate for the next
13:01
Speaker 2: couple of months until we get certainty on those things.
13:05
Speaker 9: I mean, I think it will fluctuate quite a bit
13:08
Speaker 9: because of how all of these different trends are playing out,
13:11
Speaker 9: and I expect Look, if you're a professional investor and
13:13
Speaker 9: that's your job, then yeah, you'll be paying a lot
13:15
Speaker 9: of attention to it. If you're an average key we
13:17
Speaker 9: worried about your Kiwi saber, I don't know if i'd
13:19
Speaker 9: be immediately reacting right this second.
13:22
Speaker 2: In fact, i'd.
13:22
Speaker 9: Probably again just be there's quite a few movements coming
13:26
Speaker 9: through and if you've already taken the idea that you're
13:29
Speaker 9: happy enough with a bit more risk in your investments,
13:32
Speaker 9: then it's probably worthwhile sort of sticking around to that
13:34
Speaker 9: and not making any rash decisions. What's also I think
13:38
Speaker 9: been interesting in some of the trading this morning has
13:41
Speaker 9: been just how different some of those different parts of
13:44
Speaker 9: the economy have gone. So you've seen a number of
13:47
Speaker 9: bank stocks and similar that have increased on the view
13:50
Speaker 9: that there will be a bit more deregulation in the US.
13:53
Speaker 9: A number of tech stocks as well that have seen
13:55
Speaker 9: similar trends, but a number of ev makers as well
13:58
Speaker 9: that have come back except for Tesla. So again, lots
14:01
Speaker 9: of moving parts, lots of different elements, big questions as
14:05
Speaker 9: well for the dollars.
14:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, interesting you mentioned Tesla. I'll get to Elon Musk
14:08
Speaker 2: in a few moments and just how much money he
14:11
Speaker 2: made overnight. Brad Olson Informatric's chief executive and principal economists
14:16
Speaker 2: with US twenty four minutes after five. If you're just
14:18
Speaker 2: joining us, Donald Trump has won the White House. It's
14:21
Speaker 2: not official yet, but most major networks in the United
14:24
Speaker 2: States have called it. He's also flipped the Senate at
14:28
Speaker 2: this stage retained control of the House. This is the
14:31
Speaker 2: Republicans and is winning the popular vote. Everything has changed.
14:37
Speaker 1: The early edition full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
14:42
Speaker 1: News Talks at ME.
14:43
Speaker 2: Twenty six after five year on news Talk said b
14:46
Speaker 2: in the space of twelve hours, the whole world has changed.
14:50
Speaker 2: Not only is Trump back, baby, but he's more powerful
14:53
Speaker 2: than ever. Republicans have flipped the Senate and they're on
14:56
Speaker 2: track to retain the House of Representatives. That gives them
14:59
Speaker 2: a normal miss power to set budgets, start or stop
15:02
Speaker 2: funding wars, and post tariffs on anyone they like. Basically
15:05
Speaker 2: and KeyWe farmers and primary producers are exporters, the backbone
15:11
Speaker 2: of this trading nation. Will be waking up this morning
15:14
Speaker 2: with a pit in their stomach. America is our second
15:16
Speaker 2: largest export market, overtook the Aussies last year. Tariffs on
15:21
Speaker 2: our meat and dairy could be a brutal blow. Plus,
15:24
Speaker 2: our number one trading partner in China is about to
15:27
Speaker 2: be whacked even harder by Washington. Trump's Washington. A trade
15:31
Speaker 2: war could wipe they reckon almost one percent of global
15:35
Speaker 2: growth in the next year, and global growth is tipped
15:37
Speaker 2: to be just three point five percent. That is massive
15:40
Speaker 2: and it will send shot waves around the world and
15:42
Speaker 2: we will feel it here. Add to that, Trump potentially
15:45
Speaker 2: pulling support for Ukraine's war and as bullish comments on
15:48
Speaker 2: the Middle East, and you've got yourself a highly unpredictable
15:51
Speaker 2: and to use a couple of overused terms, unprecedented and
15:53
Speaker 2: consequential set of variables. For all the handwringing pre election
15:58
Speaker 2: that Trump was an existing threat to democracy, that very
16:03
Speaker 2: system has elected him the forty seventh president of the
16:07
Speaker 2: United States, serving his last term with more power than
16:11
Speaker 2: he's ever had. This is Trump unleashed. Buckle up, brace yourselves.
16:17
Speaker 2: Everything we knew yesterday about the global economy and global
16:20
Speaker 2: conflicts is about to change, Bryan Bridge, twenty eight minutes
16:24
Speaker 2: after five, you're on news talk s HEREB. We're going
16:26
Speaker 2: to speak to a polster, one of America's leading polsters,
16:29
Speaker 2: coming up inside the next half an hour. Also, we
16:32
Speaker 2: are expecting to hear from Karmela Harris at midday to day,
16:36
Speaker 2: so I'm sure you'll hear that on news Talk HEREB
16:38
Speaker 2: later on. Lots more to come, including way an NCEA test,
16:42
Speaker 2: an exam is too difficult for some students to pass.
16:47
Speaker 2: Twenty nine after five.
17:03
Speaker 10: When you're not you win me.
17:08
Speaker 11: I'm falling apart in full candle your faday morning. You're
17:26
Speaker 11: breaking my Herbay.
17:29
Speaker 1: Dolesson, get ahead of the headlines, Ryan Bridge, You for
17:39
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four on early edition with Smith City, New
17:43
Speaker 1: Zealand's furniture Bids and applying store news talk sid be.
17:54
Speaker 2: Good Morning New Zealand twenty four away from six Thursday
17:57
Speaker 2: to seventh and November. Great to have your company. If
17:59
Speaker 2: you thought trying to work out the electoral college system
18:02
Speaker 2: last night was difficult, wait till you see the NCA exams.
18:06
Speaker 2: There's a good story in the Herald this morning. Apparently
18:09
Speaker 2: it's so hard students are crying in the exam and
18:12
Speaker 2: you've got to feel sorry for them. So this is
18:14
Speaker 2: what it says. The questions, particularly this is level two
18:18
Speaker 2: maths in biology. The questions were poorly written, confusing and
18:22
Speaker 2: not even connected to the part of the curriculum the
18:25
Speaker 2: students were taught. And at this point you go, are
18:28
Speaker 2: this can the students not read or can the teachers
18:32
Speaker 2: not rite? I don't know what's worse, frankly, one probably
18:38
Speaker 2: the cause and effect of the other. Anyway, So what
18:41
Speaker 2: we're hearing now is that the New Zealand Qualifications Authority
18:44
Speaker 2: is going to review this exam because it was so
18:47
Speaker 2: distressing for students. And to be fair, you know these
18:50
Speaker 2: students would have studied hard, I'm sure, and it was
18:53
Speaker 2: the excellence questions, the ones, the very difficult questions that
18:57
Speaker 2: were causing all of the problems. So anyway, they're going
18:59
Speaker 2: to go away and have a look at that. Also overnight,
19:01
Speaker 2: Elon Musk has this is Trump's biggest billionaire buddy, his supporter,
19:06
Speaker 2: the one that was giving away a million dollars a day. Well,
19:08
Speaker 2: what a return on an investment he's got just in
19:11
Speaker 2: the last twelve hours. He is while we slept thirteen
19:16
Speaker 2: billion dollars richer because Tesla's year's jumped thirteen percent. That
19:20
Speaker 2: thirteen billion represents his stake in the company. It's twenty
19:24
Speaker 2: two away from six, Ryan Rich, We are going to
19:27
Speaker 2: go to Marco Rubio's former chief of staff just before
19:30
Speaker 2: six as well. What are they going to do? The
19:33
Speaker 2: Republicans with all this new power right now? Though the
19:37
Speaker 2: polls had a very tight race, we all know that.
19:40
Speaker 2: So what exactly got Donald Trump and the Republicans over
19:44
Speaker 2: the line? Sean Trendy is one of America's best known posters.
19:48
Speaker 2: He's with Real Clear Politics. He's a senior election analyst
19:52
Speaker 2: there and he's with me this morning. Seawan, Welcome to
19:54
Speaker 2: the program. Where does this victory for Trump rank in
19:58
Speaker 2: terms of.
19:59
Speaker 7: History, it's almost unprecedented. We have one example in the
20:03
Speaker 7: US of presidents winning non consecutive terms, so it was
20:06
Speaker 7: Grover Cleveland. I'm sure you've heard of him back in
20:10
Speaker 7: the late eighteen hundreds.
20:12
Speaker 2: Other than that, presidents.
20:14
Speaker 7: That lose or even canvas lose typically don't come back
20:17
Speaker 7: and win another term.
20:19
Speaker 2: The Republicans have also flipped the Senate. What's happening with
20:22
Speaker 2: the House race?
20:24
Speaker 7: The House is very close, it's surprisingly close, actually, and
20:27
Speaker 7: it looks like Republicans will likely lose a couple seats there.
20:31
Speaker 7: Even if they do manage to control the Chamber, that's
20:34
Speaker 7: going to be a very, very big problem for them.
20:37
Speaker 7: They had a tough time keeping the Chamber together with
20:40
Speaker 7: the narrow majority they already have. Narrowing it even further
20:44
Speaker 7: is going to be a nightmare to navigate.
20:46
Speaker 2: What does that mean for the trifecta power of a
20:51
Speaker 2: Republican white House Senate and albeit a weakened majority, but
20:55
Speaker 2: a majority nonetheless in the House.
20:59
Speaker 7: Well, the likely we have the trifecta, which means they
21:01
Speaker 7: have at least nominal control. But remember here in the
21:04
Speaker 7: US we have something in the Senate called the filibuster,
21:07
Speaker 7: which means effectively, you need sixty votes in order to
21:10
Speaker 7: keep to get anything done. That's going to almost certainly
21:15
Speaker 7: put a question mark on anything Donald Trump wants to accomplish,
21:22
Speaker 7: at least substantively.
21:23
Speaker 2: In the States. What do we know about why people
21:27
Speaker 2: voted for Donald Trump? The economy, cost of living, that's.
21:31
Speaker 7: A big factor. I mean, different people will tell you
21:33
Speaker 7: different things, and we're still digesting the returns. One of
21:36
Speaker 7: the most interesting thing though, is that Trump won one
21:39
Speaker 7: in four black men. Black voters have been a backbone
21:43
Speaker 7: of the Democratic coalition since the nineteen thirties. So to
21:46
Speaker 7: see Trump make those advances just that something's really amiss
21:50
Speaker 7: in the Democratic coalition.
21:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that is going to be quite a hurdle
21:56
Speaker 2: for them to try and overcome, isn't it, Because they
21:58
Speaker 2: haven't quite managed to get back those middle class white
22:00
Speaker 2: voters in the Ross belt for example.
22:03
Speaker 7: Either that's right, there's some real pressure points on the
22:07
Speaker 7: Democratic coalition right now. And to have this result come
22:12
Speaker 7: about with the candidate who has, you know, the plane
22:15
Speaker 7: miss steps that Donald Trump has really really calls into question.
22:19
Speaker 7: What could happen if the Republican Party were to nominate
22:23
Speaker 7: someone with a similar platform but who didn't make some
22:26
Speaker 7: of the same mistakes that Donald Trump consistently makes.
22:30
Speaker 2: When it comes to Ukraine, Donald Trump has obviously been
22:35
Speaker 2: talking about ending that war by Christmas. Do you think
22:38
Speaker 2: that means he might pull support.
22:41
Speaker 7: I think he'll certainly threaten it. And yeah, I think
22:45
Speaker 7: his supporters have a real, real problem with the continued
22:51
Speaker 7: money that's been flowing to Ukraine. I think there's gonna
22:54
Speaker 7: be a lot of pressure on him to pull support,
22:56
Speaker 7: and I'm going to be really surprised if he doesn't
22:59
Speaker 7: do it.
23:00
Speaker 2: What does it say about the state of the United
23:02
Speaker 2: States when they elect a president who is a convicted felon,
23:05
Speaker 2: who has threatened to go after the media, go after
23:09
Speaker 2: quote left wing lunatics, and here he is now was
23:13
Speaker 2: forty fifth now a forty seventh president.
23:17
Speaker 12: Well, I do.
23:17
Speaker 7: Think that a lot of the things that resonate with
23:21
Speaker 7: some voters don't resonate with others. I think that the
23:24
Speaker 7: I do think that the felony convictions were seen as
23:27
Speaker 7: politically motivated, given that they did occur in our most
23:30
Speaker 7: heavily democratic city. But you know, at the end of
23:35
Speaker 7: the day, if you can give people, or at least
23:37
Speaker 7: promise people, you know a good standard of living, they'll
23:42
Speaker 7: put up with a lot of other things that might
23:44
Speaker 7: strike a lot of other people. Is pretty horrifying.
23:47
Speaker 2: Sean, thank you very much for your time. Really appreciate
23:49
Speaker 2: your analysis. That Sean Trend the Real Clear Politics Senior
23:52
Speaker 2: election Analyst. Thank you.
23:55
Speaker 1: Bryan Bridge.
23:57
Speaker 2: That's gone eighteen away from six year on News Talk CB.
24:00
Speaker 2: Going to speak to Marco Rubio's former chief of staff
24:02
Speaker 2: in just a few moments. Find out what they're going
24:04
Speaker 2: to do with all that power. Also, you might have
24:08
Speaker 2: noticed the leaders were well. The congratulations of Donald Trump
24:12
Speaker 2: came in thick and fast yesterday and I was watching
24:14
Speaker 2: trying to see who got in there first, because everyone
24:16
Speaker 2: wants to cozy up and avoid a terror from this guy, right.
24:18
Speaker 2: So Trudeau was in there pretty quickly and said that
24:21
Speaker 2: the world is so envious of our relationship. Elbow got
24:24
Speaker 2: in there before our Luxeon and Peters kirs Stamer also
24:28
Speaker 2: giving his congratulations.
24:29
Speaker 10: And I begin by congratulating present Elect Trump on his
24:33
Speaker 10: historic election victory. As the closest of allies, the UK
24:38
Speaker 10: and US will continue to work together to protect our
24:41
Speaker 10: shadvalus of freedom and democracy.
24:44
Speaker 2: I'm happy it's seventeen away from six year on News
24:49
Speaker 2: Talk sib.
24:50
Speaker 1: Ryan Bridge new for twenty twenty four on early edition
24:54
Speaker 1: with Smith City, New Zealand's furniture beds at a playing store.
24:58
Speaker 2: News Talk Sidbye to six If you're just joining us,
25:01
Speaker 2: welcome to the show. Over in the UK, the Guardian,
25:04
Speaker 2: because the fake news media obviously came in for a
25:07
Speaker 2: bit of a hammering on this campaign, So the Guardian
25:09
Speaker 2: newspaper has already done an editorial saying we will stand
25:13
Speaker 2: strong in the face of a Trump presidency. Also in
25:18
Speaker 2: this editorial they've asked for donations to do so. Good
25:21
Speaker 2: luck guys and Bridge rich right. It was a resounding victory.
25:27
Speaker 2: Obviously still water to go under the bridge, but most
25:30
Speaker 2: US networks now calling this for Donald Trump. And it's
25:33
Speaker 2: not just the White House, it's flipping the Senate. It's
25:36
Speaker 2: likely keeping the House as well. And the popular vote
25:39
Speaker 2: and almighty comeback the first time since the eighteen hundreds
25:43
Speaker 2: of presidents made a non consecutive return to the Oval office.
25:46
Speaker 2: And Matt Terrell is Marco Rubio's former chief of staff
25:49
Speaker 2: and managing partner at Firehouse Strategies. He's with us Live
25:52
Speaker 2: this morning. Matt welcome to the show.
25:56
Speaker 12: To be with you.
25:56
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me, Thank you for being here. How
25:59
Speaker 2: are you feeling. Did you expect it? Did you expect
26:02
Speaker 2: so much from the selection?
26:06
Speaker 12: Well? Certainly, I, like many people, saw some of the
26:09
Speaker 12: trend lines go in his direction, for President Trump's direction,
26:12
Speaker 12: whether it was the pulling the Betty markets, and furthermore,
26:15
Speaker 12: you're seeing him pulling better on the key issues that
26:19
Speaker 12: voters cared about, namely the economy, inflation, and border security.
26:23
Speaker 12: He was pulling better than Vice President Harris and of
26:25
Speaker 12: those issues. This election was about those issues by and large,
26:29
Speaker 12: and it's the reason why he won this race.
26:33
Speaker 2: What about What is he going to do with this power?
26:35
Speaker 2: What does the Republican Party do with this power?
26:40
Speaker 12: Well, I think he's been very clear throughout the campaign
26:43
Speaker 12: what he intends to do, and I think, you know,
26:46
Speaker 12: with control of the Senate and likely control maintaining the
26:49
Speaker 12: House representatives, he have an ability to go in and
26:52
Speaker 12: have a mandate, a political mandate to go in and
26:55
Speaker 12: implement the policies he campaigned on. Whether that's on taxes
26:58
Speaker 12: and tax reform, you know, whether that's on other key
27:01
Speaker 12: policies that relate to the border and border security, among
27:04
Speaker 12: other policies that he campaigned on. But look, the reality
27:07
Speaker 12: is it's not just control of Congress that he will
27:09
Speaker 12: likely continue to have with the House of Representatives and
27:11
Speaker 12: control of the Senate, but also winning the popular vote.
27:14
Speaker 12: And you know, it's one thing to win the electoral
27:16
Speaker 12: college when you win the popular vote. And likely here
27:20
Speaker 12: have both chambers of Congress. For certain he's won the Senate,
27:23
Speaker 12: but likely we'll maintain control of the House here it
27:25
Speaker 12: appears with Republican control there. The bottom line is that's
27:28
Speaker 12: an ndate and that's going to allow him to go
27:30
Speaker 12: in and implement the policies that he campaigned on, and
27:34
Speaker 12: that appears the majority of Americans behind and the fact.
27:36
Speaker 2: That he's managed to shift some black voters, some Latino
27:38
Speaker 2: voters just shows you that the you know, pocket book
27:41
Speaker 2: politics rules the Royce really doesn't. It's the economy.
27:45
Speaker 12: Yeah, this is a big win for for a president Trumble. Look,
27:48
Speaker 12: he did better across the board with respect to how
27:51
Speaker 12: he performed in twenty twenty. You look at young voters,
27:54
Speaker 12: black voters, Hispanic voters, non college eduvacated voters. He did
27:59
Speaker 12: very well for Republican nominee for president. Among those key
28:03
Speaker 12: voting blocks, and the reality is that helped him in
28:05
Speaker 12: the key battleground states that he needed to win in
28:08
Speaker 12: order to win this race. I think this is a
28:09
Speaker 12: big win for President Trump certainly, like I said, he'sn't
28:13
Speaker 12: have a political mandate here to go in and and
28:16
Speaker 12: then both the policies that he campaigned on. But this
28:18
Speaker 12: was a very big victory. And it was frankly big
28:23
Speaker 12: to see just how well he did in comparison to
28:26
Speaker 12: how he performed just four years ago, and where Vice
28:29
Speaker 12: President here's underperformed with respect made these key voting blocks
28:32
Speaker 12: and in comparison to a President Biden performed in twenty.
28:35
Speaker 2: Twenty speaking all what happens to who?
28:38
Speaker 7: Now?
28:41
Speaker 12: Well, look they have between now and you know, January
28:45
Speaker 12: to go in and continue to policies. You know, they'll
28:48
Speaker 12: be government here until President Trump is sworn in in January.
28:51
Speaker 12: But look, the bottom line here is the big thing
28:54
Speaker 12: here is control of Congress as well, like I said,
28:57
Speaker 12: And as you see that come into play here, you
28:58
Speaker 12: know you're gonna have certainly a linked session here with
29:00
Speaker 12: the current Congress and emotion and in place. But you
29:04
Speaker 12: know the reality is January will be the key month
29:06
Speaker 12: that's when you have a new Congress sworn in. Like
29:08
Speaker 12: I said, control of the Senate is with Republicans, the Republics,
29:11
Speaker 12: and now control of the White House. The real questions
29:13
Speaker 12: about the House representative. But that appears to be going
29:15
Speaker 12: in the Republican's direction right now. And then from there,
29:18
Speaker 12: I suspect what you'll see is just my sense is
29:20
Speaker 12: that President Trump recognizes that he has kind of a
29:23
Speaker 12: second chance here. You know, you know, we all get
29:25
Speaker 12: second chances in life, of course, but this is a
29:28
Speaker 12: big second chance to be president once again. And with that,
29:31
Speaker 12: I suspect he's not going to waste any time. And
29:32
Speaker 12: then furthermore, the transition, you know, the presidential transition is
29:35
Speaker 12: already underway. There are gonna be cabinet positions that he's
29:38
Speaker 12: going to get have to get confirmed, putting in key
29:40
Speaker 12: staff members. That's a big transition, but that's already underway
29:43
Speaker 12: for the Trump Vans team.
29:46
Speaker 2: Matt can gradulations for your party, and thank you very
29:48
Speaker 2: much for your analysis this morning. I appreciate it. That's
29:51
Speaker 2: Matt Matt Terrell. Who's Macho Rubio's form of chief of staff.
29:54
Speaker 2: It's nine and why from six, Ryan Bridge, if you're
29:57
Speaker 2: working up listening to this this morning, and you're a
29:59
Speaker 2: prime producer, you're an exporter. Your big worry will be
30:02
Speaker 2: the potential for a ten or twenty percent tariff on
30:05
Speaker 2: all goods going into the United States. It's our second
30:07
Speaker 2: largest export market. I spoke to Scott Brown last night,
30:10
Speaker 2: he's the former American ambassador to New Zealand. He said,
30:12
Speaker 2: don't worry. Not everyone is going to have to pay this,
30:15
Speaker 2: but that is speculation. Earlier I spoke to Sir John Key,
30:19
Speaker 2: our former Prime minister. He was with us from San Francisco,
30:21
Speaker 2: and asked him how worried should we be about Trump's tariff.
30:26
Speaker 6: I don't think there's any doubt that Donald Trump will
30:29
Speaker 6: deliver what he said, which is an America First policy.
30:32
Speaker 6: On the other side of the Queenn the positive news
30:35
Speaker 6: is we had long we have a long setting relationship
30:38
Speaker 6: as historical allies, we're part of the Five Eyes Agreement.
30:42
Speaker 6: We are seen as a sort of friendly country, and
30:45
Speaker 6: I think there'll be good political relations between the New
30:48
Speaker 6: Zealand government and the new administration. I think there will
30:53
Speaker 6: be some tariffs, and he's talking about sixty percent potentially
30:57
Speaker 6: in China and tens twenty percent around the rest of
30:59
Speaker 6: the world. But of course there has some quite big repercussions,
31:03
Speaker 6: not only for us, but actually for the consumers that
31:05
Speaker 6: pay that.
31:06
Speaker 2: So that was Sir John Key speaking to us live
31:09
Speaker 2: from San Francisco in the United States. If you want
31:12
Speaker 2: to hear the full interview from earlier in the program,
31:14
Speaker 2: it is up online News Talk, said B dot Co
31:17
Speaker 2: dot m Z eight to six on.
31:20
Speaker 1: Your radio and online on iHeartRadio early edition with Ryan
31:25
Speaker 1: Bridge and Smith City, New Zealand's Furniture Beds and a
31:28
Speaker 1: playing store.
31:29
Speaker 2: News Talk zaid B. It is six away from six
31:32
Speaker 2: News Talk, said B. Someone says, good morning Ryan and Mike,
31:35
Speaker 2: and Mike is here. It's time to lure American medical
31:38
Speaker 2: staff to New Zealand with a big relocation package. We
31:41
Speaker 2: say every time this happens, Trump gets and people say
31:44
Speaker 2: the move here. But it didn't really turn out last time.
31:45
Speaker 2: Did it might? No, it doesn't.
31:47
Speaker 4: There was a survey the other day that there has
31:49
Speaker 4: never been more wealthy Americans looking to leave America, no
31:53
Speaker 4: matter who won. So that vibe that America is not
31:56
Speaker 4: quite what it was. But what a what a great day.
31:58
Speaker 4: I mean as an exercise its fascinating democracy. And how
32:01
Speaker 4: it unfolds, and how big it is and how diverse
32:04
Speaker 4: America is, and the Trump story, the Harris Stoy I
32:07
Speaker 4: still honestly can't answer you. I asked this yesterday. I
32:10
Speaker 4: cannot answer you. What's the biggest story? Is it Trump
32:14
Speaker 4: coming back? Or is it how Harris lost?
32:17
Speaker 2: I mean, are you just coming back?
32:18
Speaker 4: Go inside the Democratic Party and just go into that
32:22
Speaker 4: bubble and do they have the wherewithal to analyze themselves
32:27
Speaker 4: and to understand how they blew that well?
32:30
Speaker 2: I mean, the thing is, you can't. I don't think
32:31
Speaker 2: you can blame Kamala Harris. It's not her fault that
32:34
Speaker 2: he lost his marbles and that he wouldn't go with
32:37
Speaker 2: It's her fault.
32:38
Speaker 4: She's vacuous, yes, And it's her fault that she didn't
32:42
Speaker 4: have a policy. And it's her fault she didn't understand
32:44
Speaker 4: the economy or immigration and tried to tell everyone it
32:47
Speaker 4: was about abortion and turning the page so that you
32:49
Speaker 4: could that's on her.
32:50
Speaker 2: But you could argue that she didn't have much of
32:52
Speaker 2: a runway to get that stuff together.
32:53
Speaker 4: She didn't have that also, But equally that you go
32:56
Speaker 4: back to the plan when you go Biden's the only
32:59
Speaker 4: hope we've got to beat Trump. That worked, but then
33:01
Speaker 4: they didn't think beyond that when Trump's too old and nutty,
33:05
Speaker 4: who have we got all the women? We were pointed
33:07
Speaker 4: because she's black and a woman, she'll be the one,
33:09
Speaker 4: will she? They didn't think beyond that.
33:11
Speaker 2: No, And the interesting thing about what happened yesterday is
33:14
Speaker 2: it's just a big middle finger to identity, politics, wallet,
33:17
Speaker 2: Trump's everything. That's the question.
33:19
Speaker 4: Do they learn that lesson?
33:21
Speaker 2: No?
33:22
Speaker 4: Does Hollywood learn that lessons? Learn that lesson? Do any
33:26
Speaker 4: of the lovies learn that lesson so that next time
33:29
Speaker 4: they're more competitive or do they just go off? I
33:32
Speaker 4: think they've been robbed.
33:33
Speaker 2: Well, they didn't learn the lesson, because remember in twenty
33:35
Speaker 2: sixteen when Hillary Clinton brought out and as did Joe
33:38
Speaker 2: Biden last time brought out all of Hollywood twin doors,
33:41
Speaker 2: and everyone felt sick about it. And here they are again.
33:43
Speaker 4: Was last night exactly the same as sixteen when that
33:46
Speaker 4: guy came out and said she's not turning up to night.
33:48
Speaker 4: That was just like two amazing.
33:50
Speaker 2: Anyway, all of that more brilliant. Mike is with you next,
33:54
Speaker 2: Thanks for your time this morning. Are those interviews put people?
33:56
Speaker 2: John key up at newstalk ZB dot co dot z
33:59
Speaker 2: see tomorrow.
34:01
Speaker 1: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge. Listen live
34:04
Speaker 1: to Newstalk STB from five am weekdays, or follow the
34:07
Speaker 1: podcast on iHeartRadio