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Who’s going to make Hamas surrender? · The Front

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: From The Australian. He is what's on the front. I'm
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: Claire Harvey. It's Wednesday, October one, twenty twenty five. A
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: complete Harmas surrender and the return of all hostages in
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  Speaker 1: return for the release of Palestinian prisoners. That's the core
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: of a twenty point peace deal announced by Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: and Benjamin Ette Yahoo, with the blessing of Arab and
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  Speaker 1: Muslim leaders. But what's in it for Hamas and does
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  Speaker 1: it have any hope of working today? Our Foreign editor
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan joins me for his characteristically acerbic and hilarious
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: assessment of what happens now.
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  Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, the presidents of the United States.
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  Speaker 3: I'm the Prime Minister of the State of Israel.
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  Speaker 4: It's called peace in the Middle East.
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  Speaker 3: Will have permanently ended the war.
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  Speaker 4: So the hostage is the coming back.
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  Speaker 3: You are the greatest friend that Israel has ever had
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  Speaker 3: in the White House.
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  Speaker 4: So it would be headed by a gentleman known as
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  Speaker 4: President Donald J. Trump of the United States.
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  Speaker 3: This can be done the easy way, or it can
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: be done the hard way, but it will be done,
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  Speaker 3: will be done.
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  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor, Greg. We all
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  Speaker 1: know Donald Trump likes a winner. It looks to me
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  Speaker 1: like Benjamin Ettania, who is the winner here? What's your
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  Speaker 1: rate of it?
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's a very very good deal if it goes ahead,
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  Speaker 2: and the Palestinians would be crazy to reject it. It's
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  Speaker 2: the best deal they're ever going to get. But I
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  Speaker 2: don't think it will happen. Trump is a tremendous impresario
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  Speaker 2: of these White House events, but he hasn't been that
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  Speaker 2: good on the follow through. You remember the summit with
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  Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin that Trump had only a few weeks ago,
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  Speaker 2: and nothing at all has happened. Trump has accomplished quite
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  Speaker 2: a few things already in this steal. He's got the
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  Speaker 2: golf Arab States on board, which is remarkable. But to
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  Speaker 2: do that, he got Benjamin Nettna, who to apologize to
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  Speaker 2: Qatar for conducting an operation on their territory and promise
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  Speaker 2: not to do it again. Well, I've been covering Netnahu
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  Speaker 2: for many decades, and let me tell you, you don't
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  Speaker 2: get many apologies out of Benjamin Netah. Trump has done
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  Speaker 2: a traditional American thing there, which is to reassure the
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  Speaker 2: Gulf States, and that normally empowers them to be more
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  Speaker 2: forthcoming to Israel. Now he's given netna Who an off
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  Speaker 2: ramp from this military campaign. If Hamas comes to the party,
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  Speaker 2: so nettna Who would be able to stop the major
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  Speaker 2: military operations. And if the extreme right in his government
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  Speaker 2: deserted him, probably he would get enough support from the
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  Speaker 2: centrist parties still to get the peace plan accepted. But
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  Speaker 2: the extreme right might just have the wit to stick
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  Speaker 2: with something that Trump offers them. The ridiculous premature recognition
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  Speaker 2: of Palestine by a number of states, including Australia, had
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  Speaker 2: led to a huge move within Israel to annex part
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  Speaker 2: of the West Bank. It was, as we all predicted,
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  Speaker 2: one million percent counterproductive, but Trump seems to have stopped
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  Speaker 2: net Nyahu from that. So that's an achievement for Trump.
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  Speaker 2: And now it's the best deal of Palestinians we'll ever
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  Speaker 2: get because it involves the United States directly in their
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  Speaker 2: future prosperity. This is certainly the best chance the Palestinians
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  Speaker 2: have had in a generation to get something productive. America
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  Speaker 2: is certainly not talking about permanent colonialism in Gaza. They're
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  Speaker 2: talking about a big international effort to restore, rebuild, and
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  Speaker 2: reform Gaza. But the Palestinian leader in its long history
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  Speaker 2: has never missed a chance to miss a chance, and
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  Speaker 2: Hamas of course has to go out of business to
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  Speaker 2: accept this deal, so probably they won't. But it's deeply unpredictable.
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  Speaker 1: Who would be able to convince Hamas to surrender? Do
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  Speaker 1: you think, Gregor? Or is it going to be a
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  Speaker 1: matter of musk taken out of there by members of
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  Speaker 1: this international stabilization force that Trump is talking about.
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  Speaker 2: No one can force Hamas to surrender. Hamas is a
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  Speaker 2: death cult infused with terrorist ideology, inspired by Iran, profoundly
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  Speaker 2: committed to the Salafist Islamist extreme view of the world
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  Speaker 2: in which Jews are a primordial enemy of all Muslims.
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  Speaker 2: And from Hamas's point of view, they like what's happened.
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  Speaker 2: They don't mind that there are tens of thousands of
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  Speaker 2: Palestinian instead, that's fine with them. They want Israel to
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  Speaker 2: be isolated internationally. So the International Stabilization Force only comes
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  Speaker 2: into existence if Hummas surrenders. Indeed, the International Stabilization Force
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  Speaker 2: is one of the long term weak points of the deal,
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  Speaker 2: although I think it's the best thing on offer now
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  Speaker 2: this deal. If Hamas rejects it isolates Humas instead of Israel.
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  Speaker 2: So that's another quite significant judo accomplishment by Trump. Really,
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  Speaker 2: he's turned around the dynamic of international politics all on
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  Speaker 2: his own. No one can force them to surrender, no
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  Speaker 2: one can force them to do anything, and they are
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  Speaker 2: being in this deal offered amnesty and safe passage out
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  Speaker 2: of Gaza, so they don't even have to give themselves
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  Speaker 2: up to death, but they have to give up all power,
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  Speaker 2: and they have to give up the lingering leverage of
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  Speaker 2: these probably twenty odd living hostages whom they continue to
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  Speaker 2: torture and mistreat. So Hamas has to behave like reasonable
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  Speaker 2: human beings, but there is no evidence so far that
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  Speaker 2: they have that within them.
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  Speaker 1: All these problems seem like the same problems that have
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  Speaker 1: stopped peace since October seven, twenty twenty three. What is
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  Speaker 1: different about this deal? Why have Arab and Muslim states
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  Speaker 1: agreed to it? Why hasn't it Anya who agreed to
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  Speaker 1: it when they haven't agreed before.
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  Speaker 2: Well, there have been several ceasefires before, several ceasefire proposals
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  Speaker 2: that Israel has agreed to and Hamas has refused. But
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  Speaker 2: then Hamas never wanted the peace deal, so they found
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  Speaker 2: an excuse to pull away from it at the last minute.
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  Speaker 2: Now what's different this time, Well, a couple of things.
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  Speaker 2: First of all, all the Arab states, the Gulf States,
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  Speaker 2: and indeed other big Muslim majority states like Pakistan and
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  Speaker 2: Indonesia and Turkey have endorsed the deal. That's quite an
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  Speaker 2: accomplishment of American state craft. Iran is much weaker than
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  Speaker 2: it was before. It can't exercise the same leadership over
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  Speaker 2: Hamas that it once did. Hasbla is out of the equation.
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  Speaker 2: The Palestinian people in Gaza have suffered utterly, horrendously, appallingly terribly,
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  Speaker 2: and I am critical of Israel's actions in the last
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  Speaker 2: six months. Even though Israel has a right to wage
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  Speaker 2: war on Hamas, I think in the last six months
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  Speaker 2: there's been so little military benefit out of it. Now
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  Speaker 2: Israel will eventually hunt down every last Hamas member in
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  Speaker 2: Gaza and kill them if the war goes on. But
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  Speaker 2: there must be now pressure from the Palestinian people. Although
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  Speaker 2: Hummas always holds its own people in complete contempt. You know,
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  Speaker 2: when those people bravely had anti Hummas demonstrations in Gaza,
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  Speaker 2: they were rounded up and beaten or killed, so they
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  Speaker 2: don't care about Palestinian opinion. But you've got the whole
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  Speaker 2: Arab world, the whole Muslim world, except Iran. The Palestinian
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  Speaker 2: people all wanted end to this. Israel has prepared to
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  Speaker 2: offer an end to this on reasonable terms. They have
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  Speaker 2: a partial withdrawal and they allow the administration of Gaza
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  Speaker 2: to go over to an international authority. But the long
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  Speaker 2: term prospect of having the Americans take on Gaza's rebuilding
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  Speaker 2: and prosperity as an American project is just fantastic and
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  Speaker 2: unbelievably rare in the Trump Whitehouse. So the Palestinians would
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  Speaker 2: be absolutely crazy to reject this. But on the other hand,
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  Speaker 2: the Palestinians have rejected clear, concrete, generous offers of statehood
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  Speaker 2: at least four times in the past, if you also
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  Speaker 2: count their rejection of the original partition. Unlike the fatuous, nonsensical, idiotic, brainless,
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  Speaker 2: hollow burblings of our own government in Australia, Trump has
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  Speaker 2: offered both an incentive, a positive incentive. We're going to
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  Speaker 2: help you rebuild a prosperous Gaza, and he's offered a
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: penalty if you don't do it. We back Israel's military action.
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  Speaker 2: Trump doesn't deal in sort of come by our statements
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  Speaker 2: of kindness and goodness. He's offering them a good deal.
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  Speaker 2: If they don't take it, they are terrible consequences.
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  Speaker 1: There's a real sense of New York real estate about this,
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  Speaker 1: Greg And I've wondered, is this what the Middle East
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  Speaker 1: has been lacking for the past couple of thousand years?
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  Speaker 1: Is a bit of sort of Manhattan property developer energy.
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  Speaker 1: Point one of the twenty point plan is Gaza will
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  Speaker 1: be a deradicalized terror free zone. Point two is Gaza
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  Speaker 1: will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people in Gaza.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, we're all imagining condominiums on the Mediterranean, of course,
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  Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, is there something about Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: that is the magic factor here?
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  Speaker 2: I don't want to say that, Claire, because the deal
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  Speaker 2: has not been delivered, so he is now offering a
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  Speaker 2: very good deal. This is Trump at his best. But
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  Speaker 2: previous presidents haven't been idiots. You know. Bill Clinton negotiated
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  Speaker 2: a fantastic offer of a state under the Israeli Prime
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  Speaker 2: Minister Aehood Barakle, the Palestine Israelata state on ninety three
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  Speaker 2: or ninety five percent of the West Bank, plus compensating
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  Speaker 2: territory from Israel proper, the whole of Gaza, and a
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  Speaker 2: capital in East Jerusalem. Now that is the absolute maximal
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  Speaker 2: dream that any Palestinian state could ever aspire to. And
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  Speaker 2: they basically walked away from the deal. And Bill Clinton's
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  Speaker 2: chief advice to George W. Bush when the handover came was,
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  Speaker 2: don't trust Yasara Arafat, because they'll lie to you every
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  Speaker 2: time he opens his mouth. So it's not as if
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  Speaker 2: this is a unique Trump genius. I think this is
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  Speaker 2: what the Americans do at their best. They put incentives
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  Speaker 2: and penalties on the table. Trump is an unsentimental and
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  Speaker 2: brutal realist, and that's a big advantage. I think Barack
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  Speaker 2: Obama was misled by his own idealism or his own
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  Speaker 2: view of the ease of human nature. The less you
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  Speaker 2: know about the Middle East, the easier it is to solve.
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  Speaker 2: The closer you are to it, the more intractable and
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  Speaker 2: difficult it is. And even this deal good as it is,
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  Speaker 2: I predict on balance, the Palestinians will reject it. Hamas
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  Speaker 2: will find a way of killing it because they have
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  Speaker 2: no interest in peace. You know, there was peace before
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  Speaker 2: October seven, there was a ceasefire. Gaza was getting a
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  Speaker 2: billion dollars a year in aid from Katara, one of
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  Speaker 2: the Gulf states. Thousands upon thousands of Gazans were free
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  Speaker 2: to work in Israel proper every day. There was economic development.
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  Speaker 2: There are condominiums in the West Bank. You know, if
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  Speaker 2: you go to Romala, there are all kinds of brand outlets,
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  Speaker 2: stores and all the rest of it. The Israelis and
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  Speaker 2: the Americans have always wanted the Palestinians to have something
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  Speaker 2: they don't want to lose. That's part of the stakes
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  Speaker 2: of peace. But the terrorists within the Palestinian movement and
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  Speaker 2: fueled from outside the Palestinian movement by the likes of
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  Speaker 2: Iran and has Blah, always want to destroy that dream.
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  Speaker 2: They don't want peaceful co existence with Israel. So it'll
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  Speaker 2: be interesting to see how the balance of forces resolves
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  Speaker 2: the Palestinian decisions in this moment.
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  Speaker 4: It's amazing. I think, Bib I'm in depending on you.
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  Speaker 4: I think we probably shouldn't take questions, or would you
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  Speaker 4: like to take a question or two from perhaps a
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  Speaker 4: friendly Israeli reporter if there's sexual.
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  Speaker 3: That's a very very tough proposition, but I would think,
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  Speaker 3: mister President, that I would go by your instinct that
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  Speaker 3: this is.
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  Speaker 2: We'll have enough time for questions. Let's settle the issue first.
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  Speaker 4: Thank you very much. Thank you.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up. So, how does Tony Blair fit into the picture.
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  Speaker 1: I'm curious about the Tony factor here, Greg.
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  Speaker 4: And one of the people that wants to be on
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  Speaker 4: the board is the UK former Prime Minister Tony Blair
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  Speaker 4: good Man, very good Man, and some others.
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  Speaker 1: Since leaving office in two thousand and seven, he's been
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  Speaker 1: a Middle East envoy. It's kind of become a real
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  Speaker 1: calling for him to try and get a solution here.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, he does have some runs on the board
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  Speaker 1: with the Good Friday Agreement finally bringing peace between Northern
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  Speaker 1: Ireland and the United Kingdom. What's your sense of Blair's
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  Speaker 1: role so far in this and what it means that
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  Speaker 1: he's supposedly going to be involved in this Board of Peace.
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  Speaker 2: I think it's useful. I wouldn't ever state it. And
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  Speaker 2: nobody in international relations is really a magician, not Henry Kissinger,
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  Speaker 2: not Tony Blair, not Donald Trump, not Richard Holbrook. Blair
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  Speaker 2: is very capable and he has a lot of credibility
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  Speaker 2: he's a little diminished in retirement because he's been pretty
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  Speaker 2: promiscuous about the way he's made money for his founder
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  Speaker 2: and for himself. But at the same time he is
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  Speaker 2: a serious, capable, credible person, acceptable to both the Israelis
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  Speaker 2: and the Arabs. He thens a bit of prestige. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: it looks good. I mean, forgive my terrible world weary cynicism,
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  Speaker 2: but you know, you remember how good the Oslo Accords
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  Speaker 2: looked as well. But on the other hand, you can't
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  Speaker 2: just speak, you can't just say, well, there's never going
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  Speaker 2: to be any forward movement. We've all just got a
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  Speaker 2: grind beary. I think this is a pretty good offer,
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  Speaker 2: But of course, even if it's accepted, implementing it will
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  Speaker 2: be enormously difficult. Now let me draw to your attention
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  Speaker 2: what the obvious first difficulty will be. So say Hummas
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  Speaker 2: accepts this, and Israel conducts a partial withdrawal, the Hummus
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  Speaker 2: guys lay down their weapons and go off and live
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  Speaker 2: in Qatar or somewhere else. And then the International Administration
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  Speaker 2: gets up and running and a lot of aid comes
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  Speaker 2: in and so forth. Are still going to be thousands
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  Speaker 2: and thousands and thousands of Ghazan young men who believe
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  Speaker 2: in the Islamist ideology and who believe that Jews are
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  Speaker 2: a plague upon the earth, and.
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  Speaker 1: Who are traumatized by this very conflict or radicalized at least.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true, but I don't think you can be
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  Speaker 2: mechanistic that way. You know, the ira was traumatized by
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: adam Is British occupation, but they didn't have a profound
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  Speaker 2: ideology that the British were the work of the devil.
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  Speaker 2: So when they made peace, they made peace, you know,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: and the Republic of Ireland became one of the most peaceful,
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: law abiding states in the history of the world. But
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: this Islamist ideology is a very dynamic, proactive, serious, long
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: running ideology and movement with deep historical roots, you know,
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  Speaker 2: long before the Muslim Brotherhood, but given a modern application
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  Speaker 2: by the Muslim Brotherhood. Now now they believe that Americans
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  Speaker 2: are the work of the devil, but they believe that
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  Speaker 2: Jews are particularly an element of evil in the world. Now,
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  Speaker 2: the point I'm making is these young guys will still
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  Speaker 2: be in Gaza, and at some point or other one
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  Speaker 2: of them will say, I'm going to find glory by
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: killing some Jews. Now what happens then with the International
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Stabilization Force. Does an Indonesian soldier or a Jordanian soldier,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: or a Katari soldier or a Turkish soldier shoot a
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  Speaker 2: Palestinian terrorist to prevent them attacking Israel because if they don't,
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: the Israelis will. And you know, polacekeeping forces in the
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: Middle East are good tourists and they sometimes play a
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: symbolic role, but they have no history of actually enforcing anything.
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  Speaker 2: So that's not a reason not to give it a try.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: But that's going to be one of the moments of truth.
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  Speaker 2: And Natanyahu said in the White House press conference Israel
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: would retain security responsibility for the foreseeable future. So after
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: October seven, Israeli is not going to let Guarsan terrorists
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  Speaker 2: come and murder Israeli civilians. But preventing that will be
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: a huge task for the international force. You can rest
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: assured that the Palestinian leader who makes peace with Israel
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: will be a number one target for Islamist terrorists, and
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: so far we haven't seen anyone brave enough to paint
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: that target on their back.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: all Gregs analysis plus the takes from our experts around
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: the world, and keep up with every development in this
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: conflict anytime at the Australian dot com AU