Latest / Financial Survival Network / Consumer Confidence, Inflation, Market Concerns and Strategies- Eddy Gifford #6066

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Consumer Confidence, Inflation, Market Concerns and Strategies- Eddy Gifford #6066 · Financial Survival Network

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From the standpoint of we've seen how things were in the previous administration, We've
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seen how they are now. We know what things look like. We know
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that interest rates are astronomically high. Why because inflation was transitory if you remember,
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and all of a sudden that a lot. Yeah, and well guess
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what, No inflation was real and it hasn't come down. And the feed
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is looking at things and saying, hey, you know, like our next
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move is not it's not going to be a hype. You were listening to
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Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find
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This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz. Hey,
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we're almost in mid May. We're getting all sorts of interesting readings. Consumer
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confidence or lack thereof came out today, Eddie give it is with us from
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Detective Wealth. Eddie. Great to have you back on. So what do
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we make of the consumer confidence numbers? Well, I think it tells a
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tale of what they're telling us versus what people are feeling. We had a
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pretty significant drop from seventy seven point two to sixty seven point four over the
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last month. The lowest has ever beenned is fifty That was actually in June
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of twenty twenty two. So people are concerned. Of course, when you
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look at what the big guys are telling us, they're saying, oh,
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everything's fine, markets are up, everything's going good. And maybe that helps
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when you look at your portfolio this month. But when you look forward and
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you ask people, how do you think things are going to be in three,
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four, five, six months, people are saying that they're worried.
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They're concerned. There's obviously a lot of stuff going on right now that they
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can and probably should be worried about. So we just have this like huge
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disconnect between what they're saying and what the data is actually telling us. Right,
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So what is it they're really saying. I mean, obviously they want
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to make it look as good as it can possibly be, but they you
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know, they're old saying. You can fool some of the people some of
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the time, some of the people all of the time. But you can't
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fool all of the people all of the time. I mean, they could
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have been talking about gas lighting, right of course. I mean the beautiful
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thing and the unfortunate thing about numbers is you can pretty much make them say
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anything you want them to say. So if they want the data to say
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something a certain way, then they'll massage the data so that it says it
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that certain way. And you know, everyone's leaning on the fact that stock
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market is up, and that's true. I mean, if you account for
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inflation over the last three then we still haven't it eclipsed the inflation ingested tops
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that we hit in twenty twenty one, So you could argue that we haven't
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actually broken out into real new highs yet. And then when you just look
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at it from the other side of the coin, you've got a lot of
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people that have been having to take second and third jobs used to keep up
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with this stacking inflation. Everyone keeps selling us inflation is coming down. It's
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not coming down, it's slowing. There's a big difference there. We're not
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seeing, you know, deflation, where we're seeing a slow We're seeing the
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growth is slow in inflation. But that doesn't help the fact that it already
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stacks twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two on top of each other. So
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people are looking in the mirror trying to figure out, how do I pay
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for groceries that are thirty forty fifty percent more expensive than they were three years
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ago? And I mean, and that's the thing that I think is coming
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through in the consumer sentiment report is that, well, you know, everyone
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tells us that things are good and they're fine, but when you actually look
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at your bank account, when you actually look at your recepts, like,
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wait a minute, infliction hasn't come down. I'm still paying way more than
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I used to, and it's starting to, I think, make people angry.
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And you know, the hopefully we don't have an angry mom upon us,
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but there are a lot of people that are not happy right now.
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Yeah, it seems like mostly everyone isn't happy because if you look at the
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number of people who are happy with the current administration, that number has cratered.
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According to Martin Armstrong, the satisfaction rate with the current admin is eight
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percent, unlike the thirty six percent there. The approval rating is in the
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tank here. And you know, whether you care about the politics or not.
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The thing is that it really is a commentary of very sad commentmentary on
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what's going on in the country. Yeah, when you when you look at
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what's going on and you just I mean, the reality is is that we've
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seen both sides of the coin from the standpoint, and we've seen how things
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were in the previous administration. We've seen how they are now. We know
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what things look like. We know that interest rates are astronomically high. Why
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because inflation was transitory if you remember, and all of a sudden, yeah,
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and and well guess what, No, inflation was real and it hasn't
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come down, and the FED is looking at things and saying, hey,
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you know, like our next move is not it's not going to be a
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hike. It's not going to be a hike. So uh, that kind
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of settled the markets a little bit. That Fed backed off and on their
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tapering, and so like that kind of increased liquidity. And so it's very
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clarity enough to look at all of this and say, hey, this is
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just one big plan to keep liquidity going through the election cycle so that we
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can watch markets climb and we can say the stock market up and when in
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reality the stock market is not up after you account for inflation. And so
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it's funny that this year we've talked about all these like, oh, we're
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hitting new highs, we're hitting new highs. In the previous administration, we
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were hitting new highs every day for like four years straight. Like that's that
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doesn't really matter the fact that it's taken four years they hit a new high.
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That's the thing that we should be concerned about. Yeah, we should
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be very concerned because the stock markets less a function of the of the actual
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economy and more of the more of the state of the market, right exactly.
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And when we get to these new highs and people start getting concerned and
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we see like that Fomo cake game where people are running and putting money in.
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Unfortunately, a lot of times that serves as exit liquidity for the people
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that are like, hey we're watching gold, Gold is outperforming. Hey we're
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watching utilities. Utilities are outperforming. They know that historically those are risk off
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metrics, and so as people are piling in because they're afraid to miss out,
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the big money, so to speak, is kind of like just taking
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gains off the table and when things collapse, because it will then I don't
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know if it's going to happen this year's happened two years, three years,
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or whenever. But you can only push the can or take the can down
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the road so many times. You can only build the house of cards so
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far, and unfortunately we're in this scenario where since two thousand and nine we've
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pretty much been at zero interest rates. It's caused this massive spike in US
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stock market. It's almost parabolic in a way, and those things never end
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well as so it's one of those things where you can't afford not to be
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invested. At the same time, you can't afford to play the buy and
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whole game right now. In my opinion, it's one of those things that
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could roll bye you Okay, so we can't do that. What can we
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do? What's the what's the best way to go about this year? Well?
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I think it's two things. One, you could have more of a
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trader's mentality from the standpoint of anytime that you buy something, you have to
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have a great diherent reason to get out, whether that's a profit target or
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a stop or something, or you just have to make sure that your portfolio
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optionally has true installation in it. And Unfortunately, that's probably not bonds,
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especially if we continue to have an inflationary type environment. We look at twenty
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twenty two and that your traditional sixty forty was down just as much as one
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hundred percent equity. So I rather have all the risks and all the potential
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return than than be in a situation where I'm still going to get the same
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amount of loss and I'm supposed to be taking half the risks. So we're
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looking a lot at alts. So that might be commodities like precious metals that
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might be managed futures, but we're paying attention to the types of things that
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typically do well in inflationary environment environments. We like the idea of managed futures
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because a typically trend fallow, so you don't have to figure out like what
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gig and if you look at twenty twenty two as a foxy, those were
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up thirty forty fifty percent that year, so they actually provided installation where bonds
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didn't. So I think that probably a combination of the of both have some
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type of like edge or installation in place that works regardless of the interest rate
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environment, and then have exits in place. It's okay to take profits on
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the way up. It's it's okay to take to just lock in a loss
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on the way down. You don't have to ride that roller coaster all the
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way down, and you'll be happy that you didn't when you get to the
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other side. And a lot of stuff on sale. So we disciplined,
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have a plan, follow your plan if you can't figure out yourself, and
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talk to somebody with that mentality. All right, what about we haven't talked
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about the so called the fear trade, which now is obviously precious metals,
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bitcoin, cryptos. What you're feeling there? You know, I still like
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I still like the cryptocurrencies, and I still like gold. You know,
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even silver is a way to kind of play gold from like more of a
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leverage standpoint. Goal is broken through, uh, you know, resistance,
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it's it's it kind of ran it pulled back a little bit. Gold is
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becoming the reserve currency for other nations, so you would think that that's going
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to cause demand, and obviously more demand should cause prices to elevate. And
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the other side of the coin is you've got a bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I
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would lean more on bitcoin than anything else. I think the other stuff is
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more speculative because of all the big guys so to speak, getting involved in
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the bitcoin space, I think that it becomes safer, not safe, still
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a very very volatile asset class, but it's you know that. I think
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that the good thing and the bad thing about it is it's kind of built
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on mistrust. So if you don't if you don't trust the government, if
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you don't trust this, if you don't trust that, well we should put
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our money into bitcoin because you know it'll it'll keep our money safe, so
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to speak. I don't know if that's a good recipe for long term anything.
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But what we've seen is the high inflationary companies are leaning into big or
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sorry not companies, countries are leaning into bitcoin. We're seeing the big wigs
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like Morgan Stanley and black Rock, Uh, they're actually filing to include the
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bitcoin in some of their flagship strategies. And so to think that like demand
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is going down in the bitcoin space again like I don't. We don't see
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that, especially since we're on the back half of the having and we're not
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producing as much bitcoin anymore. I both I think both of those gold and
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bitcoin become a very good like supplying Man's story, is it. Is it
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a hedge against anything? I mean, I think it's a hedge against like
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mistrust. Uh. But I think that the supply demand stories the bigger story
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there where we could actually see things really really ride in both places. Probably
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the forty unders are going to own the bitcoin and the forty plusers are going
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to own the gold. Okay, all right, Well, so if gold's
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going up, then silver is going to eventually go up as well, won't
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it. Yeah, I mean the precious metals are generally going to track.
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But gold and silver have a very very close relationship, and so usually when
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one goes up, the other one follows, and usually it's gold for silver
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seconds. So silver isn't a bad way to play the rise in gold.
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And of course there's a lot of other precious metals out there, like copper,
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for example, that could serve as a really really good I guess store
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of value. I mean, it's very volatile, it's like any other commodity.
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But you've got like both sides of the fence where you've got like the
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green world and the other side, and like they both need copper, and
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so to think that like and those are the reasons when you look at it.
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You're like to think that inflation is going to go down, like all
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of these things, the prices are going to continue going up. And that's
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scary because I think twenty twenty two might have just been a taste, not
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the real thing. Think so, uh wow, So we got interesting times
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ahead here, don't Leadie. We definitely have interesting times. Doesn't mean you
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gotta to run and stick your head under, you know, in the stand,
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or go lock the door and don't come out for four years. But
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it does mean that you should have a plan that's flexible and nimble and can
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take advantage of some of these things. You know. Unfortunately, a lot
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of places they only allow you to the stocks and bonds, like for you
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not to have precious metals and managed futures and you know, potentially bitcoin in
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your montfolio. I think that that's a mistake. I agree. All right,
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Hey, really appreciate you coming on, Eddie. Just tell us again
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where we find you these days? Yeah, definitely at tacticwealth dot com backslash
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Eddie dash Gifford of course, ichnologies. Go online and google me. It's
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Eddie Gifford, Eddie with a y Gifford and you'll see probably this that we're
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talking about today, show up in a day or two on that on the
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search engine. But we're here to help. We know that it's scary times,
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and we don't have any quotas or anything. We're independent. We work
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for our clients, and you know, if we if bitcoin makes sense,
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we have bitcoin. If manusedcreatures makes sense, we use Manus futures. You
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have the flexibility and to pretty much go anywhere if you're working with us.
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All right, Hey, we like that about Eddie. You're always there for
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the customer. You don't have an agenda and got a question for Eddie or
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myself k L at Kerrie lets dot com is the email to send it to
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and the link to eddie site. You'll find it in the show outs to
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this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. And while you're there, please
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sign up for you free newsletter Eddie. Always a pleasure. Thanks for stopping
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by, Thank you for having me, Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
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Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
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