Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Why Is Bitcoin CRASHING? | 5 Bullish Signals for October | Bitcoin Simply
Transcript
- 0:00Bitcoin has crashed from 117 K to 109 K in less than a week,
- 0:04and you got to give him credit. Peter Schiff turns on the troll
- 0:07machine like no other to capitalize on the moment.
- 0:10But here's the people out there, like Peter Schiff, who think the
- 0:12Bitcoin bull market is over. What's your take on Because
- 0:14price going down, everyone's freaking out online and this big
- 0:18liquidation. Yeah, yeah.
- 0:19If you follow some folks on Twitter, they'll say the cycle's
- 0:22over, which is crazy because I think we're just at the backing
- 0:25up, boys. What the heck is going on?
- 0:29Why did Bitcoin crash from 117 K to much lower?
- 0:32A Bitcoin analyst gives us an idea into what might be actually
- 0:35happening, but despite it all, we're still going much higher.
- 0:38I'm going to give you 5 bullish signals to hold onto on a day
- 0:41like today. This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin.
- 0:43Simply let's go. Why is Bitcoin crashing?
- 0:51This is the question that everyone has on their mind.
- 0:53I thought we were in a bull market and the price always goes
- 0:55up and to the right. CIO and partner of Pro Cap
- 0:58Bitcoin, Jeff Park had some ideas as to why we seen such a
- 1:02large crash. Packing up boys, but it is
- 1:07drawing right because I think it was a pretty large liquidation.
- 1:09I believe it was the largest year to date Bitcoin has seen
- 1:12something closer to a billion dollars and it did wake us down
- 1:15from 117118K all the way to 112 pretty pretty fast.
- 1:19So it is drying, but anyone who's been around Bitcoin long
- 1:21enough knows these things are actually fairly typical apart
- 1:24for the course. What's I think interesting is it
- 1:28did also elevate and play volatility as a result for the
- 1:31first time in a while. So it jumped from what was
- 1:34already a very low denominator starting point in the low 30s to
- 1:37maybe like mid high 30s. Funnily enough, it's all coming
- 1:41back in again. And so I think the market is
- 1:44pricing and further in action from this price point or more
- 1:48optimism that there isn't going to be more liquidation to come
- 1:51through. So, so you know, why did it
- 1:54happen timing wise? I think the most notable reality
- 1:58is it's right after FOMC and there was some leverage built
- 2:02into system for perhaps people having expectations that the
- 2:06rate cut would signal a start of a cycle.
- 2:09But what Powell ended up coming online to share on Monday was
- 2:13that this was a risk management decision, right?
- 2:16This wasn't actually to initiate further rate cutting cycle even
- 2:20though I think everyone in the market believes it will be and
- 2:23and it is the case but but Powell did hedge that this was
- 2:27more pre emptive than not from a risk management perspective, not
- 2:30to signify the start of something new.
- 2:32OK. The market was anticipating
- 2:34Jerome Powell signaling a shift in regime from a quantitative
- 2:37tightening or neutral position at a Fed to all out party in
- 2:41rate cuts all the way down to the low fours or high threes and
- 2:44percentage terms. And clearly when he didn't
- 2:47signal that well, that ended in muted the hopes that the market
- 2:50had for a rally to happen in September.
- 2:52And honestly, the September FOMC meetings, I've never been that
- 2:56good for Bitcoin. Historically, the month of
- 2:58September has been Bitcoins lowest performing month.
- 3:01But let me give you some reasons to be bullish #1 it's best
- 3:04performing month October, or some people call that October.
- 3:07It's just around the corner. And if Bitcoin holds on and ends
- 3:10the month positive, well, it's at a 100% correlation to being
- 3:14positive. Oh, and if Bitcoin somehow holds
- 3:16on to have a positive month in September, well, there's a 100%
- 3:19correlation that it goes up in October #2 bullish signal for
- 3:23Bitcoin. The ultra rich are buying right
- 3:26now. We're still in a transition
- 3:27phase from Bitcoin being viewed as a risk on asset to a risk off
- 3:30asset in a hedge, and that's why the ultra rich are accumulating.
- 3:34Listen to these comments from a $200 billion hedge fund manager
- 3:38of Tiger Global and what he sees from the ultra rich and their
- 3:41intentions of buying more Bitcoin.
- 3:43Bitcoin, has it taken some time to this?
- 3:50I see it every quarter there's. A little more Bitcoin, A little
- 3:53more Bitcoin. I feel like it's finally
- 3:55crossing that hurdle of. We've got to own it.
- 3:58Yeah. So Bitcoin as a market is still
- 4:01only a 10th the size of gold, but they both are secure assets
- 4:07in members mind. For the first time, people
- 4:09aren't talking about Bitcoin just as speculation, but
- 4:13actually an alternative asset that can be held during tough
- 4:17times. Not everybody believes in it,
- 4:19but those that do are making a big split, it went.
- 4:21From so big. Speaking of the ultra rich,
- 4:23Apple CEO Tim Cook said that he's been holding Bitcoin for a
- 4:26long time in a recent interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin.
- 4:31Well, let me ask you A. Different question because you
- 4:32you. Just said that you might not do
- 4:34it. Personally.
- 4:35Do do you own crypto in any Bitcoin or Ethereum?
- 4:38Would you play around with? This I, I do, yeah.
- 4:40I think it's reasonable to own it as a, as a part of a
- 4:43diversified portfolio. And I'm not giving anybody
- 4:46investment advice. By the way.
- 4:49When when did you get? Interested in it?
- 4:51I've been interested in it for a while and I've, you know, been
- 4:57researching it and and and so forth.
- 4:59And so I think it's interesting. The elite start to make plans
- 5:03that we see today. Four years ago, this interview
- 5:06clip came out about Larry Fink proving this exact point in that
- 5:09in 2020 and 2021 they had Michael Saylor come in and
- 5:13consult them on this whole thing about Bitcoin long before the
- 5:16ETF strap. And we used to bring in all
- 5:18these different people who were big believers in it, like
- 5:24Michael Saylor from micro strategies.
- 5:26I mean, Michael came to her office with his with the stock
- 5:29was in the teens, but he was a huge believer that transformed
- 5:33his company. I mean, I could just say all
- 5:34these different people came in and talked and then we became,
- 5:37you know, we, we became a leader in working with the SEC and, and
- 5:43try and try to move forward in this and Fast forward out a
- 5:49little more than 18 months when we first started creating a
- 5:53Bitcoin ETF. Today it's Ibid is $86 billion.
- 5:58Speaking of bullish signal number 3IN BlackRock Bitcoin
- 6:02products are being built out there in the market, like this
- 6:04new ETF product, the premium income product just dropped by
- 6:08BlackRock. This is what I assume can be a
- 6:10covered call strategy, allowing people who own Ibid shares to
- 6:13earn a yield on the shares that they have by selling out of the
- 6:17money covered calls to other investors in collecting a
- 6:20premium. And Speaking of Michael Saylor,
- 6:22who was consulting BlackRock, he's we've also been consulting
- 6:24another potential big buyer, the US government. 1st, I do want to
- 6:28start with the fact that there are reports that you were in
- 6:30Washington last week meeting with policy makers about this
- 6:34strategic Bitcoin reserve bill. How are you advising lawmakers
- 6:39right now and and why is the case there to create a strategic
- 6:43reserve? Well, I think bitcoins good for
- 6:46the nation and and then the country would benefit.
- 6:49We did buy something like 78% of the entire United States for
- 6:54about $40 million over the past hundred years or so.
- 6:58So I think the United States ought to own a large part of
- 7:02cyberspace and and Bitcoin is the next frontier.
- 7:07This leads me to bullish point #3 the consistent adoption of
- 7:11Bitcoin buying through the form of corporate companies buying
- 7:14Bitcoin. You know, I think the real story
- 7:16in Bitcoin right now is corporate adoption.
- 7:19We've got a consistent acquisition of Bitcoin by the
- 7:22big ETFs like Black Rock and, and that's taking up all the
- 7:26natural supply. And they're, and they're doing
- 7:28that on behalf of institutional investors.
- 7:30But these 180 companies that are capitalizing on Bitcoin are
- 7:35buying even more than the natural supply being created by
- 7:38the miners. And they're putting upward
- 7:40pressure on the price. And I think that as we work
- 7:43through the resistance of late and some macro headwinds, we'll
- 7:47actually see Bitcoin start to move up smartly again toward the
- 7:51end of the year. This is a trend that's not going
- 7:54to stop. Matt Cole, the CEO of Strive,
- 7:56made waves last week when Strive acquired similar scientific in
- 8:00an all stock deal. It was acquired at a 210%
- 8:03premium in an all stock transaction, signaling that the
- 8:07main goal is to have a strong balance sheet and to acquire as
- 8:09much Bitcoin as possible. With this combined merger,
- 8:12they'll now own 10,900 Bitcoin, which will put them in the top
- 8:16ten of all Bitcoin treasury companies.
- 8:18And the reason that he's doing it, it's because you said that
- 8:20in five years you won't be able to stack Bitcoin like this.
- 8:23We think that the digital gold rush is a 10 to 15 year
- 8:26phenomenon and over time it's going to be harder and harder to
- 8:30stack stats for these companies. And so that's why we do think it
- 8:34is early that people that are able to get going are able to
- 8:38build pretty large stacks of Bitcoin.
- 8:41But I think the focus, and you see this focus and across this
- 8:45room is stack stats. There's a million ways you can
- 8:50monetize a massive balance sheet over time, but that exercise is
- 8:54fruitless right now during the digital gold rush era because to
- 8:57your point, in five years you won't be able to get anything
- 8:59close to what you can get today. This leads me to bullish point
- 9:03#4 Jeff Park. In that interview with Pomp, he
- 9:05said that he saw Bitcoin seeing me open options interest rise
- 9:09above $6 billion, Meaning that there's some people who are
- 9:12betting that bitcoins going to go much higher from here with
- 9:14future options contracts. And we also recently saw well,
- 9:18purchase $171,000,000 worth of Bitcoin in a few short days.
- 9:22Someone knows something's coming.
- 9:24And This is why we believe that Bitcoin is still going to have a
- 9:27strong finish to the end of the year, just like Jeff Park said.
- 9:30There's a lot of people you mentioned earlier they think the
- 9:32bull market's over, but it's plenty of people who still
- 9:34think, hey, this is just kind of a low.
- 9:37Where do you come out on kind of from here through the end of the
- 9:40year with Bitcoin kind of sentiment, performance?
- 9:42Yeah, there's I think some degree of kind of disappointment
- 9:49that Bitcoin's lacking so much, right.
- 9:51I mean, if you look at all the other gold bugs, they're beating
- 9:54us. It's gold bugs.
- 9:55But even like I said, the Swiss franc and the equities market
- 9:58and generally what people track as global M2 liquidity having
- 10:02outperformed to 160 trillion and how Bitcoin should actually have
- 10:05played a bigger catch up to it. I think, I think there are
- 10:08legitimately kind of disappointment within the
- 10:11Bitcoin investors. But but I think sometimes these
- 10:14are actually the coil spring effects as I've observed that
- 10:17really can create some meaningfully strong moves and in
- 10:20a in a rapid pace. The of the fact that we'll share
- 10:23with you is that actually I haven't seen many people talk
- 10:25about it, but right now is the highest options open interest
- 10:31for the Bitcoin CME options. It's a 6 billion, it's the
- 10:37highest it's ever been. So I don't know what that means
- 10:40in terms of what traditional Wall Street investors are
- 10:42hedging or speculating for. But you know, despite the
- 10:46futures open interest not having surpassed its peak from last
- 10:49year at the election, despite the volumes not having peaked
- 10:52that time period, the one thing that is at its all time high is
- 10:55the open interest on Bitcoin, CME futures options.
- 10:58And so I think there's still a lot of, you know, excitement to
- 11:01be had for we for imagining volatility could pick up.
- 11:06And I still think it's a generational opportunity to be
- 11:08able to take advantage of low volatility when the effect of
- 11:12that cold spring could actually create some asymmetric outcome.
- 11:15So I'm still very bullish and I think that in the next three
- 11:19months we're going to see something pretty, pretty
- 11:21meaningful. But before I get to my #5
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- 12:33Despite Peter Schiff trolling Bitcoin right now, Bitcoin is
- 12:36still a better asset in investment than gold.
- 12:39It's more portable, divisible, verifiably scarce, and it's
- 12:43preparing you for owning something digital in cyberspace
- 12:46for the future digital world to come.
- 12:48A huge run right now too. It's a $3800 an ounce.
- 12:52It's basically trading at at record after record this year,
- 12:55but Bitcoin hasn't sort of moved lock steps.
- 12:57So how to think about that analogy in this environment?
- 13:01JP Morgan said gold is money, everything else is credit.
- 13:04This morning I said Bitcoin is money, everything else is
- 13:07credit. The success of gold is
- 13:09indicative of the demand of mainstream investors to have a
- 13:13bearer instrument that's a long term store of value, that's not
- 13:17a currency derivative and doesn't have counterparty risk
- 13:20to a corporation. Gold fits that bill.
- 13:23Bitcoin fits that bill even better, and it's sort of got the
- 13:26digital upside. You know you could.
- 13:28You can't teleport gold and you can't program gold to vibrate it
- 13:32a million times a second on a computer.
- 13:35So Bitcoin is is the technology version of gold.
- 13:38It's digital gold. It's going to be, in my opinion,
- 13:4110X bigger than gold, but they're the same idea.
- 13:43Bitcoin is a superior asset and while other people are risk off,
- 13:47this is a good opportunity to accumulate with a long term view
- 13:51in mindset of Bitcoin. 5 reasons to be bullish.
- 13:53Just to review, October or October is Bitcoins best
- 13:56performing month which is right around the corner.
- 13:58The wealthy and the ultra rich are changing their tune on
- 14:01Bitcoin and they're accumulating now.
- 14:03They don't make plans for the future in the future.
- 14:06They're making them at this point, and they're starting to
- 14:08buy Bitcoin. Bullish signal #3 products
- 14:10continue to be built on top of Bitcoin, and people are going to
- 14:14issue digital credit instruments on top of this scarce sovereign
- 14:18asset. Option number four, People are
- 14:20buying in large quantities in accumulating lots of Bitcoin.
- 14:23There's large options interest out there, $6.2 billion to be
- 14:27specific, and it's not stopping. And #5 nothing's changed about
- 14:31Bitcoin being a better asset than gold.
- 14:32And when gold runs, Bitcoin sprints.
- 14:35What's not to like? If you haven't already got your
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- 14:46tickets. We can't wait to meet you there.
- 14:47This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin. Simply Happy stacking.