Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 455 - 2/16/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 455 - 2/16/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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  Hello and welcome to episode 450.
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  Five of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered
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  by. Rhythm.
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  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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  Happy Monday, a new week begins. We are officially halfway
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  through the month of. February and if you're like.
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  Me in New England, it has been a long winter, but it's like 40°.
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  Today we haven't seen 40°. In quite a while and.
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  Got about. 2 feet of snow. But it's it's.
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  Kind of melting. So there's some birds chirping.
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  We got some snow. Melting.
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  We got baseball spring. Training back in the swing of
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  things and we got. A lot of college basketball.
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  To talk about for today. Guys, so we're going to get
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  right back to it, hopefully kick off our week.
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  On a hot note. Because we're able to finish.
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  Last Week, 2 in one. Every single day.
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  So it's nice to see. Good little 2IN.
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  One grinding, you know. Treating us well throughout
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  last. Week and of course.
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  I got a three pack for you today, including the biggest.
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  Game of the Night. I got to play on.
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  Iowa State and Houston. And then to go the other way I
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  got. Two very tiny little.
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  Games that hopefully will take. Advantage of as well.
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  But as always. Trying to go 2.
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  In one eek out a winning day. Again, hope.
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  Everyone had a great weekend and now let's see if we.
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  Can start our week. Off on a hot note here.
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  Hopefully by by staying hot. Now, before we dive in, there
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  are. Two sweats for.
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  Today I had two comments. 2 little things that I wanted.
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  To mention. First off, there is a new
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  Twitter account. X if you like to call it that,
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  it'll always be. Twitter to me though.
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  And as you may know, I'm not only a podcast.
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  Host and author. But I am.
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  Also a sports betting analyst for vsend.com.
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  Where you can get all my articles?
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  For. What I call the sharp.
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  Reports basically everyday. From V syn all my write UPS.
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  But V syn you definitely want to give them a.
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  Follow at V syn under score. At V syn live but.
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  V Syn created a new. Account it's it's at V syn
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  Insights sports betting tips and insights and it's fantastic.
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  And I definitely recommend people.
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  Following it, they just. Do a great job.
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  Of pumping out little. Angles.
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  Little insights that. Hopefully you can.
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  Use to your advantage. But this is one that jumped out
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  to me because I woke up today and I noticed my.
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  Buddy Dave Tooley, who was. Fantastic, you got to follow.
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  View from Vegas. Dave's one of my.
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  Mentors, I remember. Reading Dave when I was younger
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  and then I am now, I've been a. Colleague of Dave's A.
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  Co worker for well since. 2019 when I joined VSON.
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  But anyway, he quote. Tweeted this and basically said.
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  The importance of betting against the public.
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  So this is the. Tweet that came out and.
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  Again, highly recommend. Following at VSON Insights.
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  Quote. DraftKings majority handle.
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  Betters in college basketball have lost on point.
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  Spreads this season with a 46.6%.
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  ATS and minus. 12.1% ROI. Here's the money quote going.
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  Against majority handle point spreads would have netted over
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  75 units profit through early February, so.
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  This just goes to show you whenever we talk about BET.
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  Splits, of course, we're looking.
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  At line movement. Bet split system matches, but I
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  always try to. Talk about.
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  Hey. You know when we're betting.
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  Against the public, the goal is to really go against the
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  draftking splits. And we're trying to identify.
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  Sharp action. We're really trying to focus.
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  On not only the line. Movement, but the discrepancy
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  at. Circa So you always got to
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  remember DraftKings big National Book.
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  You know DraftKings. And FanDuel are your two biggest
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  books. In America with the most.
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  Number of. Public betters who have.
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  Created accounts and bet daily. Whereas circa not as widespread
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  as DraftKings. Or FanDuel.
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  But. They cater to wise guys.
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  They're one. Of the sharpest books.
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  Around they set their own. Numbers, they don't kick out.
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  Winning players, they don't limit you.
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  So when we're looking at. Bet versus dollar.
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  Discrepancies we love seeing. A good.
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  Sharp split at circa. So Circa is getting, you know.
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  45% bets but 85% money. That's.
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  Fantastic to me, tells me. The wise guys out in.
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  Vegas have have. Leaned on that side pretty hard
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  when? We're betting against the public
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  really trying. To fade the DK splits.
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  So really trying to go against the big majority of tickets.
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  Which again, if you look back toward what was it Friday,
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  Wisconsin, Remember that game? Wisconsin it was again.
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  One of your one of your bigger plays and was kind of a perfect
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  example of how to fade. Quote UN quote Fade the public.
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  Because if you remember, Wisconsin was at.
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  Home Friday night against Michigan.
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  State this. Was one of our our plays on
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  Friday. Eeking out a 2IN.
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  One night, but Wisconsin was. Basically.
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  Plus 1 1/2. They got bet up to. 2 1/2 and.
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  They came back down toward. Two or one and a.
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  Half. So that was a play where you had
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  such heavy. Betting on Michigan State nearly
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  80%. Of bets.
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  But in the most heavily bet game of the night.
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  Primetime spot again. Public Super Super.
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  Heavy on one side, we like to. Go on the other.
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  Side so that is a. Perfect example, not only
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  whiskey coming through. Rolling outright. 92 to 70.
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  One on Friday. Which is fantastic, but
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  illustrating. The point that hey going.
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  Against the public and remember, we're looking at ticket.
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  Counts the number of raw tickets.
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  Overall. As a winning strategy, which
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  again was supported from that great that great tweet that we
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  saw from the new account at V. Sin insights, so highly
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  recommend. Following them now the.
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  Other one I want to mention. Was someone who took issue with
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  something that I said last week? About my 3 plays a day.
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  So I wanted to clarify it a bit. I want to 1st mention.
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  This tweet that I got tweets. Are always open.
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  You can tweet me, you can DM me. I'm always here to help.
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  Whether it's feedback. Constructive criticism or
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  whatever you. Want to do?
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  You want to troll too? Hey, that's your prerogative.
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  But this is a. Tweet that I got.
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  From Friday and it was quote bro I always.
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  Love it when a. Tweet starts with Bro bro, your
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  logic on having exactly 3 plays a day is.
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  So silly comparing it to. A glass of.
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  Wine is an awful analogy. One day there may be no value.
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  On the card the next. Day there could be 8.
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  Games that are worthy of a play. You're telling me you should?
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  Just bet three both days. Well, my friend, let me.
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  Clarify. Maybe I didn't perfectly.
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  Articulate the whole point there what I was saying.
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  Is I try to bet three games a day?
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  Because I think the important thing is limiting.
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  The number of. Of bets you make, you bet too
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  many games you can easily have a bad.
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  Day to get cleaned out. You bet too many games.
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  That's just more juice that you have to.
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  Overcome. And when you're winning, you
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  know, let's say you have eight games.
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  And you go 5 and. 3. But if you're laying minus
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  numbers, you actually might have a.
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  Losing day even though you have a.
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  Winning record. So my whole point there.
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  If I can clarify it. Is that I try to.
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  Never go more than three. Again.
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  If there's value on the. Board, you're a volume.
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  Better and you see 8. Games of value.
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  That's your. Prerogative you want to fire on
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  that? All you know all.
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  Power to you, I hope you go. 8 and O what I.
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  Should have said though is. There are some days.
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  When I might make. One bet, 2 bets.
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  There are some days where I may layoff.
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  Entirely the point. Is that is not that.
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  You. Always bet three games a.
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  Day. The point is, I don't want to.
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  Exceed more than three bets a day.
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  So again, this is my. Personal opinion.
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  Through betting every single day.
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  For a very long. Time at this point, for over a
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  decade, of course. And again, you may disagree.
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  And I think there is a point. I got to give.
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  You know a. Little bit of credit here.
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  Yes, there are days where the value is greater on.
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  On on one day versus another. There might be a day where you
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  know there's zero or or one game worthy of betting.
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  There might be days when there are 8.
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  Games as this this person. Tweeted to me.
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  The point? That I'm trying to make.
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  Here is that less. Is more and the wine analogy.
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  I don't know why. That's a terrible.
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  Analogy because again, 8 glasses.
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  Of wine a night I. Don't think that's very healthy.
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  One glass of wine a. Night with dinner.
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  You go over to Italy and they'll tell you that that's good for
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  your heart. So my whole point.
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  Being is that you got to do what you are comfortable with.
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  It doesn't. Mean that I bet three games
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  every single. Day just because.
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  The three is a magic number for me.
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  It's that I try not to exceed more than three.
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  And again, we're just kind of in a groove.
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  Now where we're kind of. Seeing the board with college.
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  Hoops and again. You know we're getting at.
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  Least you know 1520 games a night.
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  So it's kind of easy. To find.
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  Three, I'll be honest. There are games that or days
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  that I could. Add more but you.
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  Learn through. Losing when you consistently.
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  Bet 456. 78910 games a night and you.
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  Start to have some. Losing nights.
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  That can really eat away at your bankroll, chip away at your
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  winnings, so. Again.
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  You have feedback. I'm always.
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  Here here for it. But I would just say it's not
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  that you. Always only bet 3.
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  Again, there are pods where we've only bet 2.
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  Or you know. Super Bowl there was.
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  One bet again. You want to.
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  Limit I think the whole. Point is.
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  Less is more. Don't.
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  Get hung up on the. Only three every single.
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  Day just kind of think that as a better you got to have.
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  You know, kind. Of the the wherewithal the.
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  Discipline the commitment to not bet.
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  Too many games so for me. 3 is my magic number.
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  Because I can go O and three and it can.
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  Be a terrible night, but I only lose. 3 units I can go.
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  Three and O and have a great night.
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  I could go one and two and lose a unit.
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  I could go 2. And one and make a unit.
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  The whole point being is that. When you bet every single day,
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  if you're betting. Three a day.
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  To me, that's that's where I feel.
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  Comfortable and my goal is eking out two and one nights, so you
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  might be. Different you might disagree.
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  But I felt like I had to kind of explain a little bit more.
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  Again, the goal is not to only. Bet 3 just cuz it's three there
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  could be days. We only bet two.
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  There could be days. We only bet one there.
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  Could be days where you. Layoff entirely.
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  But again with a. Lot of value on the.
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  Board to me a magic. Number is 3.
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  You listening out there? You got to come up with what you
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  feel comfortable with. I'm a flat better.
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  Discipline approach 1% per. Play risk.
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  Bet to risk, not bet to win. These are the.
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  Tenants that have. Served me well.
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  And you can. Here's the thing.
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  I can give you guys. Recommendations again through
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  experience through. You know, learning the ups and
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  downs. Of sports betting.
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  But you don't have to. Take that.
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  Advice. You can do what you want, but to
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  me. 3 bets a day. That's where I feel comfortable.
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  With that's my goal of eking out winning nights.
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  And if I have a bad night, it's not going.
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  To kill me so just wanted to mention that so fade the DK
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  splits and hopefully that made. Sense why I like to.
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  Bet three games tonight. With that being said, I got. 3
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  bets for you tonight. So let's go.
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  Let's try to go 2 and. 1 and I will admit.
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  I could have added a few more. But as I was saying, I don't.
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  Want to get in trouble? By betting too many games.
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  That's kind of the. Number one, no, no.
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  For me, too much volume you get into trouble.
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  So let's try to find. The three best and try to go 2
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  and one, which is what we're able to do every single day last
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  week on the pod. That being said first, but on
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  the board, we. Got two small games and I got a.
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  Big one that we'll end with. First small one.
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  Is an 8:00 PM tip. Off between Abilene Christian
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  and. Tarleton State.
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  Talk splits, system matches, line movement.
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  I'll give you my play here. So ironically enough.
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  Both these teams. Are 12 and 13 and both these
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  teams just. Played each other two days ago
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  so. On Saturday, you had Abilene
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  Christian at. Home beating Charlton State. 73
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  to 59 and they covered as a 3 1/2.
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  Point home favorite. So it's kind of rare.
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  You see this in the NBA, you see it in the.
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  NHL, but this is the. Home and home, Second leg of a
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  home and home. Series, so it's a rematch.
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  Now we're at. Charlton State after they just.
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  Lost on the road at. Abilene Christian.
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  What have you seen here? Well, this game open Charlton
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  State listed as a 1 1/2 point home.
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  Favorite So very, very short. Number here now.
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  I try to always mention. This because it's the
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  importance. Of having the odds logic live
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  odds page, not just comparing open to current.
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  But pulling up the line history, tapping the.
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  Box that shows odds for any. Game for any sports book.
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  And I'll show you all the moves in between.
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  So if you look at this game right now.
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  You compare open to current Charlton State open -1 1/2.
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  They're still -1 1/2. But here's why you got to do a
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  little more research. You pull up line.
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  History and you're going to. Notice that this line actually
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  got up to. 2 1/2 earlier today. Never really.
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  Got down to 1. So it basically is telling.
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  Reading between the lines that all movement.
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  Liability has been. On the Tarleton.
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  State side it's either. Stayed the same or move toward.
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  Tarleton state it's. Never stayed the same or fallen.
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  Closer to a pick em so that tells me.
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  Liability here on Tarleton State.
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  Tarlin State does have a pretty good split at.
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  DraftKings 59% spread bets, 69% spread dollars, so good low
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  bets, higher dollar split. Ken Palm does have Charlton.
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  State winning by 5 points. So.
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  Again, it got up to. 2 1/2 that's probably.
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  When you had some Abilene? +2 and a.
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  Half money come in, bring it back down to 1 1/2.
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  But the fact that Ken Palm. Has the team who?
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  Just lost. Bouncing back and winning by 5
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  gives a little. More confidence here to go with
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  Tarlin State. He also has the.
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  Texans Charlton State Texans ranked higher two. 111th versus
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  230 second for Abilene. Now you guys know me.
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  I'm money lining a short favorite here.
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  Let's protect ourselves so we just.
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  Got to win the game. I'd hate to lay a 1 1/2 and you
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  win by 1. I'll give an example.
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  From yesterday, guys, I don't. Know if anyone?
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  Read the Sharp report. For visen dot.
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  Com that I wrote or. Follows the ASG best bet picks
• 12:39
  from Juice. Reel for $4.00 and. $0.99 a week
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  but Monmouth. I had Monmouth as a play against
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  Towson. Monmouth was anywhere between
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  like a 1 1/2 two at one point there.
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  I think they're even 2 1/2 favorite.
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  They end up winning by one point.
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  And they were down. And they scored.
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  Late and then got lucky. Kid missing a shot.
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  So they won the game by one point.
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  Why is that important? Because by money.
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  Lining a short favorite. You won with Monmouth when you
• 13:02
  would have lost. If you laid the points, so again
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  whole point with. Wing money lining short
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  favorites is that yes, you're going to pay more.
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  Juice, but in those situations. You're going to win versus.
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  Lose, which is worth it for me. So I did money line Charlton
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  state. You can get them around -125 as
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  high. As -130 but shop around looks.
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  Like caesar's -120. 5 is your best number I.
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  Like the DK splits. On the Charlton State.
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  Money line 76% bets, 85% dollars, so good low bets higher
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  dollar split in favor. Of the home chalk.
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  Charlton State has some. Advantages here that jumped out
• 13:34
  to me better offensive. Efficiency 200 and 70th.
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  In the country doesn't sound great, but Abilene.
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  IS300 and 3rd. Better effective field goal
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  percentage. 2. 90th again doesn't sound great.
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  But Abilene. Is 320. 8th and.
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  Big advantage, knock on wood. You know if.
• 13:50
  This becomes a close game. Could be a big advantage here.
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  Free throw shooting. Charlton State ranks 79th.
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  That's pretty good. Abilene ranks 200 and 44th.
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  Charlton State, also 8 and. 4 at home Abilene just. 3:00 and 8:00
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  on the. Road.
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  So it's our revenge. Spot these teams just played.
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  Each other it was at. Abilene and Abilene one.
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  We're showing. Liability here on Tarleton.
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  State to get. Back and hopefully bounce.
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  Back and get a win. In a revenge.
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  Spot so I got. Tarleton State money line.
• 14:17
  Let's go. Texans win the damn game.
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  Around -125. Next one for you.
• 14:22
  I must. Admit this thing's.
• 14:24
  Going all over the place. It is an added game extra.
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  Game Game three O 6. 541. Three O 654. 2.
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  Florida A&M. At Alcorn State.
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  So. Florida A&M comes in nine.
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  And 14 on the year. But they have lost.
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  Five of their last six. They just got crushed by.
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  Jackson State, 80 to 60. Lost outright as a. 2 1/2 point
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  Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, Alcorn.
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  State 6 and 18 on the year. They have won three.
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  Of their last five. They just edged Bethune Cookman.
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  5755. They won that game.
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  Outright as an 8 1/2 point home dog so.
• 14:55
  I've just seen across the market here.
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  Well, this game opened Florida A&M listed as a 1 1/2 point.
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  Road favorite. And sharps.
• 15:03
  Pretty clearly. Earlier, Very clearly.
• 15:06
  Got down an Alcorn state. They flipped Alcorn State from
• 15:08
  Plus. 1 1/2 at home to minus. 1 1/2 at home.
• 15:12
  So told me hey. Add a game, extra game, big
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  sharp line, move dog to fave. Clearly an Alcorn state now, I
• 15:18
  must admit. Since that time.
• 15:20
  This line is now flipped back to Florida A and M -, 1 1/2.
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  And sometimes you're going to see this.
• 15:25
  There's actually a couple. Games on the board tonight.
• 15:27
  You saw this with Nicholas. State in Houston Christian I.
• 15:30
  Didn't play this game but at one point.
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  It was Houston Christian Minus. 1 1/2 Then it flipped the
• 15:34
  Nichols State minus. 2 1/2 now it's back.
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  To Houston Christian. -1 1/2 so. Again, you don't typically see
• 15:40
  this in big games with these added extra games that maybe
• 15:42
  that's just sharps disagreeing or different.
• 15:45
  Kinds of wise guy money. You know, picking off different.
• 15:48
  Numbers. But anyway, we flipped back to.
• 15:50
  Florida A&M. -1 1/2 now what? Hasn't changed.
• 15:53
  Is that Alcorn? State has a pretty good split
• 15:55
  42. Percent bets 57% dollars at
• 15:58
  DraftKings. Kenpom does have Alcorn State
• 16:01
  winning by 1.71 to 70 now. I got.
• 16:06
  Alcorn state money line at -111. This was when they were. -1 -, 1
• 16:11
  1/2. So if you guys want to ride this
• 16:13
  one. With me, here are your options.
• 16:15
  You can get a little plus money on the money line Alcorn.
• 16:18
  State plus one O 5. Again, I'm holding a -, 1 and a
• 16:22
  -, 111, so I don't love it. That it's gone back toward.
• 16:24
  Ford A&M. Or you can get.
• 16:26
  Plus 1 1/2 you can get plus 1 1/2.
• 16:29
  I think there's a couple. Books -110.
• 16:32
  Now if I wasn't already. Holding Alcorn state money line.
• 16:35
  Which again I'll be. Rooting like hell for.
• 16:37
  Alcorn to win this game. I believe it's on ESPN Plus if
• 16:39
  you want to sweat it with me. But if I hadn't bet it yet.
• 16:43
  And I were betting it. Now I'd probably take.
• 16:44
  Plus 1 1/2. On the off chance yet you lose
• 16:47
  by. One you get, you know.
• 16:49
  You still can. Cover with the hook there.
• 16:51
  But I am. On Alcorn state money line.
• 16:53
  And I've mentioned this before. Dance with the one who?
• 16:56
  Brung you, you make a bet. I'm the kind of person that.
• 16:59
  Sticks with the original. Bet I'm not going to.
• 17:01
  Buy it out, cash out. Bet the other side.
• 17:04
  I'm just going to stick with my Alcorn state money line.
• 17:07
  Alcorn. State.
• 17:07
  Here's a couple. Things you might still like
• 17:09
  about them, even if you're worried the line went back to.
• 17:11
  Ford A&M, Alcorn State. Has the better offensive
• 17:14
  efficiency. 333rd. Not very good, but.
• 17:18
  Look at the other side. Ford A and M300 and 49th.
• 17:21
  Also 3 point shooting 90. 4th versus 236th.
• 17:25
  Alcorn state three and two at home.
• 17:26
  I can't believe they've only played five.
• 17:28
  True home games. Florida A and M2.
• 17:30
  And 11 on the road also rhythm. Is with us with Alcorn State.
• 17:34
  I have three models on Alcorn State.
• 17:37
  Rhythm says they should be. -0. .7 -, 0.9 and minus. 2.3.
• 17:44
  So rhythms got him winning the game.
• 17:45
  Ken Palms got him. Winning the game you.
• 17:47
  Can get a 1 1/2. Again, I'm on Alcorn money line
• 17:50
  but plus 1/2. Doesn't sound too bad either.
• 17:52
  And oh, by the way, pop open juice.
• 17:54
  Reel 43% sharp mush edge on Alcorn.
• 17:57
  State so I must admit. It was.
• 17:59
  Clear dog to fave toward. Alcorn, It has flipped back to
• 18:02
  A&M. -1 1/2 but I'm a stick with Alcorn state money line and
• 18:06
  again you can either go money. Line plus one O 5.
• 18:08
  Or take the plus 1 1/2 which is. Probably what I leaned toward,
• 18:11
  but either way. How about you win the damn game,
• 18:13
  Alcorn State. Let's go.
• 18:16
  I think they're the Braves. Let's go, Braves.
• 18:18
  Now 2 small games. Let's get to the big boy
• 18:20
  tonight. Big time.
• 18:22
  Showdown in the Big 12, Houston, Iowa State.
• 18:26
  Last Game of the night by. Far the most popular?
• 18:29
  Heavily. Back Game of the Night.
• 18:31
  And boy, is this game. Right up our alley.
• 18:33
  So going into it, we got Houston. 23 and two on the year.
• 18:36
  Ranked third, they've won six straight.
• 18:38
  They just took down K. State, 7864.
• 18:42
  Didn't cover though as a 21. And a half point home.
• 18:44
  Favorite, you know, Iowa State. 22 and 3.
• 18:46
  They won. Six of their last seven, they
• 18:48
  just dominated Kansas. 74 to 56. Covered as a 7 and. 1/2 point
• 18:52
  home favorite again if you read the sharp report or got the.
• 18:54
  Vison, Vison Sharp. Report you got the ASG best bets
• 18:59
  on. On juice.
• 19:01
  Rail This was a best. Bet Sharp report play on
• 19:04
  Saturday for me. Because it was another perfect
• 19:06
  example of public all over. Kansas as a trendy dog, but the
• 19:09
  line kept going toward Iowa State -5 1/2 up to -7 1/2.
• 19:13
  So. I laid it with Iowa State and
• 19:15
  now they came through and I'm. Hoping they come through again.
• 19:18
  Tonight because Iowa State Open. This game as a one.
• 19:20
  And a half point home. Favorite and the Public I.
• 19:23
  Don't know if they think the wrong team is favored, but they
• 19:25
  think, hey, two really good teams.
• 19:27
  Houston. Is ranked 3rd.
• 19:29
  Iowa State is ranked. What are they, 5th?
• 19:31
  Or 7th so hey. You might as well take.
• 19:34
  You know Houston. In the spot right, however.
• 19:36
  Even though you are getting nearly 60.
• 19:38
  Percent of spread bets at. DraftKings going with Houston.
• 19:41
  The line isn't down to a pick. It's gone further upward toward
• 19:44
  the cyclones. -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2 so.
• 19:47
  What does that tell us? Tells us we have a.
• 19:50
  Fade the trendy dog play. This is very similar to Saturday
• 19:53
  where. Houston is in the Kansas spot.
• 19:55
  Iowa State is in the same Iowa State spot.
• 19:57
  But the public was on the trendy dog.
• 19:59
  But the. Line went to the contrarian.
• 20:01
  Favorite. So tells me smart money's on the
• 20:03
  Cyclones. Tonight, reverse line move
• 20:05
  again. Public Houston, but line move.
• 20:07
  Toward the Cougars or sorry line, move toward the Cyclones.
• 20:10
  I love, I love the. Splits of DK not only is it so
• 20:13
  even if you take away. The sharp reverse line move.
• 20:16
  When the betting line goes. Away from the popular side.
• 20:17
  Houston toward the unpopular side.
• 20:19
  Iowa. State.
• 20:20
  It just happens. To be a great contrarian play
• 20:22
  because it's a. 9 O clock game on ESPN by far the most.
• 20:26
  Heavily bet game. Of the night.
• 20:27
  And you are only getting 41. Percent of spread bats on Iowa
• 20:30
  State. So just from a.
• 20:32
  Drunk guy at the bar, everybody going Houston.
• 20:35
  Iowa State has that contrarian. Value but.
• 20:36
  What do we always talk about? It's not enough to.
• 20:38
  Just be. Contrarian.
• 20:39
  That's a foundational standpoint.
• 20:41
  You also got to have an element of smart money.
• 20:43
  So the. Contrarian is the 41.
• 20:45
  Percent. The element of smart money is
• 20:47
  the fact that the line would move.
• 20:48
  Further toward Iowa State. Even the public's on Houston and
• 20:51
  think of it this. Way if?
• 20:52
  The public was going Houston. Plus 1 1/2.
• 20:55
  Why are the? Odds makers now saying oh.
• 20:57
  Like 1 1/2 here, I'll give you 2 1/2.
• 20:59
  The odds makers. Aren't being nice.
• 21:00
  They're not. Being charitable, they're doing
• 21:02
  it because they took in Iowa. State smart money. 41% bets but.
• 21:06
  40 but 55% dollars on the cyclones at DK so good split.
• 21:11
  Now Ken Palm has. Iowa State winning by three. 70
• 21:15
  to 60. 7:00 So I money lined Iowa State.
• 21:18
  Again, I'd hate to see him win by 1.
• 21:19
  Or two. And lose our bet.
• 21:21
  So I got. Iowa State at -1. 42.
• 21:24
  Looks like -140. 5 is your best. Price now, but shop.
• 21:27
  Around because some looks. As high as -150.
• 21:29
  Here's some system matches on straight up reasons to take.
• 21:32
  Iowa State just to win the game. 2 ranked teams play each other.
• 21:36
  Take the home favorite. That home favorite has gone. 197
• 21:39
  and 80. 171% straight up 3% ROI since. 2021 when 2.
• 21:45
  Teams in the Big 12 play each other in conference play.
• 21:48
  Home favorite is 49 and 11 straight up. 80. 2% three
• 21:52
  percent ROI. Iowa State.
• 21:54
  Has the better effective field goal percentage 11th.
• 21:56
  Versus 130? 6th for Houston.
• 21:59
  And they shoot the three far better.
• 22:00
  Fourth versus 179th. Cyclones, by the way, a.
• 22:03
  Perfect. 14 and O at home. This season.
• 22:06
  So we have a fade. The trendy dog, and most
• 22:08
  heavily. Back in the night public.
• 22:09
  Houston, but. Line went to cyclones dead.
• 22:11
  Giveaway Cyclones. Are the sharp play here.
• 22:14
  Also, I have two rhythm system matches saying Iowa.
• 22:17
  State should be -2.6. And IO state.
• 22:20
  Should be -4.2. So it gives me more confidence.
• 22:23
  To go money line here. And oh, by the way, Pop.
• 22:25
  Open Juice Reel A 29. Percent sharp mush edge in favor
• 22:29
  of. Iowa State.
• 22:31
  So you got it. All up here, guys.
• 22:32
  Public Houston line going to the.
• 22:34
  Cyclones I got cyclones money line win the damn game minus.
• 22:38
  142. Again, sub shops.
• 22:40
  Now -145. -150. So.
• 22:42
  Three money lines Tarleton State, Alcorn State, Iowa State.
• 22:46
  Let's get at least two of those to come through for us tonight.
• 22:49
  So that about does it for episode 4. 55 of the all systems
• 22:52
  go sports. Betting podcast powered by
• 22:54
  Rhythm. This is the part of the pod.
• 22:55
  Where we wrap things up. And I always start first by.
• 22:58
  Saying thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 23:00
  you for tuning in, thank you for taking the time out of your day,
• 23:03
  out of your busy. Lives and we got a.
• 23:04
  Lot going on. But I see the stats.
• 23:06
  Spotify gives me all the. Numbers the downloads I'm
• 23:09
  seeing. You guys TuneIn and listen and
• 23:11
  grind. Plays with me, so thank you so
• 23:12
  much, it really means a lot to me if you'd like.
• 23:14
  To help me grow this pod. So we can help.
• 23:16
  Other betters abandoned their favoritism.
• 23:19
  And bias and bet with. Their head and not their heart.
• 23:22
  Then please help me grow the pod.
• 23:23
  By doing a couple. Very basic, simple.
• 23:25
  Things give. The pod a 5 star.
• 23:27
  Review if you feel so. Inclined on.
• 23:28
  Spotify or iTunes recommend. The pod to a friend, click the
• 23:31
  follow button. Then we get a.
• 23:33
  Little pop up. On your phone, like someone text
• 23:35
  you will say oh. You know asg.
• 23:36
  Pod new episode is dropped. Or of course.
• 23:40
  You can always retweet the. Pod when I put.
• 23:41
  It out on Twitter at Josh under Score Insights.
• 23:45
  But seriously. Thank you guys for tuning in,
• 23:46
  means a lot. Next, if you enjoy the.
• 23:48
  Style of betting breakdown, Data-driven, sharp, contrarian
• 23:51
  betting. Focusing on line.
• 23:52
  Movement bets but. System matches betting with
• 23:55
  your. Head and not your heart.
• 23:56
  Focusing on numbers, not teams and.
• 23:59
  Who's got the more *? Players but if style bet.
• 24:01
  If, but if this style of betting has.
• 24:03
  Appealed to you. It's, you know.
• 24:05
  Taught you a few things and. You've now been provided a
• 24:07
  blueprint. To attack pretty much any.
• 24:09
  Sport as long as once you. Learn how to read the market you
• 24:11
  can. Kind of bet on anything.
• 24:13
  But if that's the case and you want to learn more about
• 24:15
  data-driven betting? Then I would love for you to go
• 24:18
  to Amazon.com and type in. The everything guide to sports
• 24:21
  betting or type in the. NFL Sharp.
• 24:23
  Betting playbook My two books. That I've written very.
• 24:25
  Proud of both. If you want to give.
• 24:27
  Grab one for yourself, or a buddy of yours, or someone's got
• 24:30
  a birthday coming up, whatever. The case may be grab one or
• 24:33
  both. Bring him the sports book.
• 24:34
  I'll sign him for you and I'll buy you a beer.
• 24:36
  Or a ginger ale. And we'll sweat some games
• 24:38
  together. Next.
• 24:40
  Have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
• 24:42
  My two favorite sports betting apps to.
• 24:43
  Help me win they're. Going to help you win.
• 24:45
  Rhythm is great for their AI backed models and predictions
• 24:47
  for game bets and player props. Juice Reel, so many great
• 24:50
  features you can. Follow the the best bet.
• 24:53
  Picks from Robo Jackson, the sharp mush indicators, the
• 24:55
  arbitrage place the shop for the best sign features.
• 24:58
  But here I am. I'm going to pass the hat.
• 25:00
  If you enjoy the pod, you want to support the pod, you want to
• 25:02
  tip your podcast. Host, you're feeling.
• 25:04
  You're feeling. Generous out there, you enjoy
• 25:06
  the insights. Each day.
• 25:07
  Then I would love for you. To drop in a $5.00 bill.
• 25:10
  To the. Or I guess a virtual?
• 25:11
  499 to be. Exact $4.00 and. $0.99.
• 25:15
  To Juice Reel, just follow the ASG under score.
• 25:18
  Podcast get the best bets. As soon as I make them, they go
• 25:21
  right to the ASG profile on Juice Reel and you can tell Faye
• 25:25
  do what you like. But again, I consider it a tip
• 25:27
  jar, so I'd. Love for you guys to get those
• 25:29
  best bets from Juice Reel. Lastly, oh by the way.
• 25:33
  When you download Rhythm, download Juice Reel.
• 25:34
  Give them a 5 star. Review in the App Store.
• 25:37
  Lastly, do you have a live odds page if you don't have?
• 25:39
  One you need 1 you. Got to be able to track the
• 25:41
  market. I can't.
• 25:42
  Stress enough how important it. Is to be able to track the
• 25:45
  market in real. Time identify.
• 25:47
  Steam compare the open. Column to the current prices
• 25:49
  across the market. See which direction the line is
• 25:51
  moved. Lines are.
• 25:52
  Getting steam, they get lit. Up in red.
• 25:54
  So you may have. You know, within a minute.
• 25:55
  Or so to jump. On a book that has an adjusted
• 25:58
  pulp line. History get live scoring live in
• 26:00
  game wagering odds, but most. Importantly, getting the best
• 26:03
  number. You know you're on the dog. +6.
• 26:06
  Find that book giving you 6 1/2. You're on the favorite.
• 26:09
  You know -120 on the money line, find the book giving you -1. 18
• 26:13
  -, 115. You can do it all.
• 26:15
  With odds logic. So go download you.
• 26:17
  Actually don't have to download you.
• 26:18
  Just go to odds logic. Dot com slash Josh 12.
• 26:22
  Three. Make sure you do.
• 26:22
  Slash Josh 123. At the end because.
• 26:25
  That special link will give you a 7.
• 26:26
  Day free trial and 50. Percent off your first.
• 26:29
  Month of service. So that about does it for
• 26:32
  episode 455 of the ASG pod as we get back into the swing of
• 26:36
  things on a Monday. As always guys 2.
• 26:38
  Final thoughts, One whether? I see you at the Borgata in
• 26:41
  Atlantic City Twin. River and Rhode Island, The
• 26:43
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods.
• 26:45
  Or Mohegan Sun down in. Connecticut.
• 26:46
  At the Encore in Boston. Plain Ridge park casino MGM
• 26:49
  Springfield the Nash. And my neck of the woods on the.
• 26:52
  Border between Massachusetts. And Nashua, NH.
• 26:55
  Out in the desert, where the true.
• 26:56
  Grinders get down or Billy. Walters sends his number
• 26:58
  runners. Where the lowest true as.
• 27:00
  Possible is found at the South point or sweat and sharp
• 27:02
  contrarian plays. Jumping in the stadium swim pool
• 27:05
  when you cash a big. Ticket at Circle.
• 27:06
  You're going to walk up to me. You're.
• 27:08
  Going to show me a Monmouth and a Manhattan ticket.
• 27:10
  That was another sharp report play over the.
• 27:11
  Weekend Show me an Iowa. State ticket from Saturday.
• 27:15
  Show me a Wisconsin. Or a George Washington ticket.
• 27:18
  From Friday. Guess what?
• 27:20
  First one's on me, next one's on you will.
• 27:21
  Post about the book. Sweat sharp contrarian plays.
• 27:23
  All night long. So as always, guys coming off a.
• 27:26
  Winning day or a losing? Day a hot.
• 27:28
  Streak or a cold streak, whether things are going our.
• 27:31
  Way or things are not. Going our way, we.
• 27:32
  Just want to stay the. Course, never get too high.
• 27:35
  When? Things are going good and we're
• 27:36
  cashing. Tickets never get too low.
• 27:38
  And we're struggling. And we got bad beats.
• 27:40
  And teams aren't coming through for us, that's life.
• 27:43
  That's sports betting. Sometimes you're.
• 27:44
  Going to be up sometimes you're. Going to be down.
• 27:46
  It's a roller coaster. We can't control the.
• 27:48
  Outcome of the games. We can't control how we view the
• 27:51
  information. How we identify smart money.
• 27:53
  We can control being disciplined.
• 27:54
  With our bankroll. And if we can find.
• 27:57
  Games that fit that model. Selective but disciplined.
• 28:00
  If we can find games that. Check off the boxes.
• 28:02
  Against the public with, the House with.
• 28:04
  The pros flat bet avoid. Parlays and get that CLV.
• 28:07
  If we can do that. And I'm confident that we can
• 28:09
  then. We're going to come.
• 28:10
  Out on top and be successful sports bettors so hope.
• 28:13
  Everyone had a great weekend. Enjoy your President's day.
• 28:16
  Maybe you're like my. Wife and have today off.
• 28:19
  But when you're in sports betting, no days off.
• 28:21
  But either way, guys, let's get. Some winners in college hoops.
• 28:24
  Tonight, keep this little little mini hot streak going.
• 28:27
  And. Regardless of what happens
• 28:28
  tonight, hopefully 2IN. One night, but if not.
• 28:31
  We'll be. Right back at it tomorrow.
• 28:32
  For that'll be episode. 456. Of the all systems go.
• 28:36
  Sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 28:39
  Good luck everybody and have a great.
• 28:41
  Monday night.