Latest / Three For The Money / NFL Week 18 Gambling Picks, AFC South Win and In, Bills Run the Gauntlet, Contract Incentives

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NFL Week 18 Gambling Picks, AFC South Win and In, Bills Run the Gauntlet, Contract Incentives · Three For The Money

• 0:00
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  Upgrade your sports betting research today. Okay, let's get into the show.
• 1:03
  Okay, okay, okay. We're here. We're back. Three for the Money. New episodes every Thursday.
• 1:11
  Your favorite gambling podcast. All right, we're back. It's NFL Week 18. Not only are we back as a
• 1:21
  podcast every Thursday, but I am also officially back. I went five and two last week. Not a big deal,
• 1:30
  except that it is. I also won my surefire and I'm feeling it. I'm feeling it right now.
• 1:36
  I do not have a lot of picks today, but I do have a lot of information today. But that's how I went
• 1:42
  last week. How did you do last week, Chris? Give it a second time. Hold on. I'm pulling up my record.
• 1:49
  I totally forgot to do that. Okay, I'm going to throw it to Sean. Okay, let's do that.
• 1:54
  Okay, there we go. I am not officially back.
• 2:09
  I've been on a dry spell as of the past four weeks.
• 2:16
  Yep, four weeks without a winning record. Oh, yeah. Last week was rough, just in particular.
• 2:33
  I lost, I think like in the middle of the week, like I had some
• 2:37
  bowl game plays that all lost like one day. And then I had, I lost all my bets on Thursday.
• 2:51
  And then I lost all my bets on Friday. And then I lost all my bets on Saturday.
• 2:55
  And then Sunday, I finally got a win. I got four wins to be specific on Sunday. But
• 3:04
  yeah, in the NFL, four and nine. Not great. Yikes. But my overall record is 116, 105, and four.
• 3:20
  And I made sure that this week, I cannot eclipse my losing record, even if I lose all of them.
• 3:29
  Okay, I can't, I can't eclipse my losing record with my winning record. So I have clinched a
• 3:34
  winning season on the NFL. All right, there we go. Not not a bad, not a bad thing to have.
• 3:44
  No, not a bad thing at all. I've totally forgot my season record. But I mean, I guess I could
• 3:52
  do the math not real quick, but probably for next week.
• 3:55
  Or maybe till after the Super Bowl. But we'll see. I've also had some midweek betting luck.
• 4:06
  Definitely. I think good, you know, it's it's it's bowl season. It's college playoff season. I had
• 4:14
  the under in the Tennessee game, the Tennessee Iowa bowl game, and that became too close for
• 4:20
  comfort. But but it hit not going to complain about it was definitely sweating it a little bit.
• 4:29
  Hit the over in Washington, Texas. I did not stay up to watch that game. But it looked to be
• 4:37
  electric. Yeah, I wish I would have stayed up. But
• 4:42
  but way she goes. I did have Alabama. Yeah, me too. That was not fun. But but yeah,
• 4:55
  that I haven't really been been been given out the picks because I've been quite cold
• 5:02
  lately on the midweek picks. And I've I've still been afraid. But now I am officially back.
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  So I will be giving out weekday picks, much like Christopher. Speaking of which,
• 5:16
  how are you doing today, Christopher? Thank you for asking. Well, I went last week. Yeah,
• 5:22
  I went seven and five last week in the NFL. So not too shabby.
• 5:28
  Policy and starting to er, I guess, bull season is pretty much over now. There's only one game left.
• 5:34
  But started I finished strong with bull season. I started out so bad.
• 5:41
  It says bad as you could get. But I'm pretty sure I finished positive.
• 5:45
  I'll have to go back and double check the math. But I asked seven and five last week in the league.
• 5:49
  So let's keep it rolling. I mean, some weird games definitely on the slate, but I have eight
• 5:56
  games written down that I love. Okay. Eight games this week. That's kind of a lot more than me.
• 6:06
  I have nine. If it's not 12 by the time this is over, I'll be kind of surprised. It's still,
• 6:15
  it's still, it's still an NFL week. Like it, like some of these teams are out, but it's still
• 6:20
  NFL. There's still a regular season. You still got to treat it like every other week.
• 6:26
  Damn straight. I'm just like so afraid because we're not, we're not,
• 6:31
  the majority of games this week are still just not teams that are themselves because of Will.
• 6:37
  I thought you were back. Well, yeah, this is sounds like somebody.
• 6:42
  This sounds like somebody's gun shy. This doesn't sound like somebody's back.
• 6:46
  No, this is a smart gambler. That's what this is. Blotty, bloody, bloody.
• 6:51
  Yes. Have the units increased? No. Okay.
• 6:58
  But I definitely could be swayed here. I definitely have some room on my paper
• 7:04
  to write some picks down. But we're only going to really get into two games for our like normal
• 7:12
  slate that we kind of talk about this week's going to be a little bit different. But let's go ahead,
• 7:18
  get into it. Saturday night football win and in Texas, Texans at Colts. Colts are dogs at home by
• 7:33
  one and a half here. I'm just going to go out and say it. I think if you don't take the Texans here,
• 7:44
  I don't know. I don't know. It just seems like the play to me. It's just it's speaking to me.
• 7:49
  CJ Stroud is back. Gardner, Menchu. I think the Menchu magic is as a run out. I feel like the
• 7:57
  I feel like the Texans are just a more complete team. And that's that's really it. CJ Stroud has
• 8:04
  just been probably going to win offensive rookie of the year, even with that missed time that he had.
• 8:10
  Unless I'm missing someone. But but that's what he's like, he's like minus 10,000. I don't want
• 8:16
  that he's gonna. Okay. Okay. Well, I didn't check those lines. But
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  Chris, what do you think about this Texans Colts?
• 8:26
  I agree with you that the Texans are better. But I don't know just something about it. This game
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  feels weird. The Colts, I feel like just historically in these spots always find a way to win.
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  I'm standing away from a side. I'm taking the total. I'm going over 47 and a half.
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  I think the Colts defense is not good at all. I know they've kind of benefited by putting up like
• 8:51
  a good performance against some pretty like not good quarterbacks. But like, if you look back at
• 8:56
  some of these like historically last few not last few but throughout the season, 20 to Tampa Bay,
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  which is not a lot. But when the total is 47, that's kind of a lot. 38 to New Orleans, which sucks.
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  39 to Cleveland with PJ Walker and 37 to Jacksonville. So I do not think this defense is good.
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  I think CJ Straut, like you said, he's back. He's balling out. I do think the Texans won this game,
• 9:22
  but the spread made me nervous. So give me over 47 and a half. Sean, what are you taking?
• 9:30
  Well, I'm on the Colts. I'm on the Colts straight up. Money line.
• 9:37
  Oh, interesting. Honestly, they've done a lot to surprise me all season long. And to be fair,
• 9:47
  both of these teams have done something kind of amazing this season, especially the Texans.
• 9:56
  But to lose Tony Richardson so relatively early in the season and to be in this position that
• 10:04
  they're in now, this is for everything. The winner's in the loser goes home. And if somehow
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  the Jags lose, it's for the division. So there is kind of a lot on the line for this game. And I
• 10:22
  think that I think the Colts just kind of finish off strong and they can make it into the playoffs.
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  And don't get it twisted. I still hate the Colts, but I hate the Texans too, but I might
• 10:34
  hate the Colts like a little bit more. But I am going Colts money line.
• 10:41
  That's another reason. Oh, so that's another reason I kind of stayed away from a side. I hate
• 10:47
  both of these teams so damn much. Yeah. Like I do. I definitely hate the Colts more, but I
• 10:55
  I don't like the Texans at all. Like they can also go fuck themselves. The Colts opened up as
• 11:02
  favorites on this game. And I was surprised to see it swap. What's the line now? Did it move?
• 11:11
  Well, it basically swaps from Colts minus one and a half to Texans minus one and a half.
• 11:19
  Yeah. Yeah, I'm staying away from that makes me nervous.
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  I do. I do like that over. I think I will be adding it. I'm going to double dip on this game.
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  One of the big games on this week 18. And I think when I was doing research for this game,
• 11:39
  the Colts are 11 and five on the over this this this season. Yeah, they've been scoring a lot too.
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  They're one of the best teams like again with to hit like their team total over as well. Yeah. So
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  I think I think the over is the play there. Yeah, I love that honestly. Like I'm going to double
• 12:00
  dip. Give me it. I'm going to double dip. Yeah, Texans and the over. Okay.
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  Okay. The next game that like really matters. Bills at the Dolphins in Miami Dolphins underdogs
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  at home by three points. Okay. If the bills win, they win the division. But if the bills lose,
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  they are not in the playoffs. Is that not I think that's what it is. I think they need I think a
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  couple other teams have to not not technically. Oh, the Steelers have to lose. Yeah, the Steelers
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  have to be the Ravens and the Colts and Texans can't end in a tie. So and if the Jags
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  beat the Titans in the bills lose, they're eliminated. It's a very unique
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  like winning in situation. Because if you win, you win the you are the you're the you're the
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  two you're the two seed and you're sitting at the six seed spot currently. So
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  Bills win, they're the two seed Dolphins lose, they're the six seed. Bills lose. I mean, it all
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  comes down to the the Saturday game with the Steelers and Ravens really, because that's really
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  the only one where it's like, like, that could happen. But Steelers could beat the Ravens because
• 13:42
  they're probably going to rest a lot of people. Right. Of course. So dolphins at home, dogs by three.
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  I'm going to throw it to Sean to do to do the first pick of this game.
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  Okay. I'm not picking aside. Whoever has the ball is my favorite team. I'm going over 49 and a half.
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  Love this. This game has to rock. It needs to be like it needs to it needs to finish.
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  This is the last game of the season. And it needs to finish strong. And in seven of the last 10
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  matchups, this this has gone over. And it also hit in their past three times in a row.
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  Prime time unders are dead. And I just want to have fun. Bills, dolphins over 49 and a half.
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  Let's finish out strong and just have a good time. Chris, what do you want?
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  I don't hate that. I would take it. But I have just been so adamant that the Miami Dolphins are
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  paper tiger, frauds, whatever you want to call them. I'm taking the bills minus three.
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  They're just better. The dolphins, whenever the bright lights are on, they're pissed down their
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  legs. That's just it has happened every game except the Cowboys game. So give me the bills
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  minus three. The bills also just play amazing against good teams. Like the dolphins are a good
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  team. Don't get me wrong. The bills against bad teams suck for whatever reason, but against good
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  teams, they are they they could beat anybody. They could also lose to anybody. But I am taking
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  bills minus three just because I've been so adamant that the bills I said also three weeks
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  ago, the bills are going to win this division. I said it and I bet it bills plus three. I got
• 15:47
  them at plus 300 to win that division. So let's bring it home. Josh Shilan also is I believe
• 15:53
  nine and one against the dolphins in his career. Yeah, he's really good against the dolphins.
• 15:58
  Yeah. So just yeah, give me that all day. Give me minus three. The dolphins like they're going to
• 16:04
  lose week or first week of playoffs to so yeah, dolphins. Yeah, probably. Bill is minus three is
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  the play. Will, what are you taking? Sorry. I will be taking the bills as well. It's I don't
• 16:22
  want to say they have team of destiny vibes. But they kind of do. It's it's just I mean,
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  there's a team every year that just goes on a heater to make the playoffs a team that's,
• 16:36
  you know, bad to mid that I'd like at the halfway point, they're like, OK, let's get our
• 16:42
  shit together. And we can make the playoffs and then they do. And this year that team is the
• 16:47
  bills, you know, going into the season, obviously, it's it was more of a bills are going to win the
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  division like hands down, no contest. Now it's a contest. But situationally, now it's, it's the
• 17:06
  bills, it's the bills, it's always the bills. It's the bills this week. And no one circles the wagon
• 17:13
  like the Buffalo Pills. Damn straight. So I'm taking the bills minus three. I don't hate the
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  overplay. I may end up adding that probably not. I'm going to be out of town. Yes, Christopher.
• 17:27
  Question. So this game probably means more to Buffalo, right? For sure. I think is if the dolphins
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  lose, can they still make the playoffs? Oh, they've already clinched. They've already clinched. So
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  they're they're in regardless. Let's say even like all those tiebreakers go the bills way and
• 17:46
  they're in regardless of this game. This game still means more to them, right? Because of how
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  like dead in the water they were. Yeah, just to just to claw their way back. Yeah. From being like
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  up bills like this, not their year, like obviously, like all that like shit talk, you know, we were
• 18:07
  no Saints in that as well. We were calling them terrible. And for a while, like they were they
• 18:14
  lost they dropped like three, four games in a row to like burrowless bangles and like they lost
• 18:22
  to the Jets should have lost. Yeah. Yeah. And it was I think the really the kick in the ass,
• 18:31
  which started this winning streak, which started this four game winning streak was that overtime
• 18:37
  Eagles game where or was it overtime? Yes. No. Yes. Because I think it was a field goal. Yes,
• 18:50
  they they kicked a field and then the Eagles drove down and bills had every chance to win that game,
• 18:57
  but just could not stop the Eagles just couldn't do it. And I think that was really the kick in
• 19:03
  the ass that they needed. And since then they beat the they beat the Chiefs, they beat the Cowboys.
• 19:13
  They beat two other like really not that great teams, but their their claw in their way back.
• 19:19
  So yes, I do think that this game means more to them. But I do think the Dolphins have a bigger
• 19:26
  monkey on their back because they've they've dropped some pretty important games recently
• 19:34
  because they always just lose. They just lose these big games. Other than Dallas, but I mean,
• 19:42
  both these teams are most likely getting into the playoffs either way and I'm really happy for that.
• 19:46
  So it'll be fun to see both these teams in the playoffs. For sure. Okay. I mean, we're only going
• 19:55
  to really dive deep into the those two games that we previously talked about. But right now,
• 20:01
  we're just going to go over some playoffs scenarios. Okay, I wrote down, I think all of them.
• 20:08
  Okay, so Tampa Bay, in order to win the NFC South, they have to beat the Carolina Panthers.
• 20:17
  But but also in this, not not so much for them in this scenario, this affects Atlanta,
• 20:28
  like a lot of people are counting out Atlanta. But if the Bucks somehow do not beat the Carolina
• 20:37
  Panthers, then Atlanta needs to win against New Orleans in order to make the playoffs. And I
• 20:44
  think Atlanta has like the smallest chance to to win. Because I think I think if Tampa Bay loses
• 20:55
  and Atlanta wins, then Atlanta is the NFC South champion. It's whoever wins that game if Tampa
• 21:04
  loses, right? Yeah. Yeah. So whoever if the Saints win that game, or if the Falcons win that game,
• 21:10
  and the Bucks lose, whoever wins that game is NFC South champs. And they are going to the playoffs.
• 21:17
  Yeah. If the Bucks win, if the Bucks win, Saints Falcons doesn't matter at all. Right. But I think
• 21:25
  if if the Bucks lose, and New Orleans wins, Atlanta doesn't make the playoffs. Right. But if Atlanta
• 21:36
  wins and the Bucks lose, then they win the division. Yeah, whoever wins. That's crazy.
• 21:46
  All these teams, I mean, Tabard's been playing really well, but Atlanta, New Orleans are so bad.
• 21:52
  It's just crazy. I mean, they're, I mean, they're aren't they eight and eight?
• 21:58
  Think so. Or seven and nine. They aren't. Falcons are Falcons are seven and nine Saints. Okay.
• 22:03
  Okay. That's what it is. Yeah. I mean, that it's the same with the AFC South. Like it,
• 22:13
  it these divisions suck. So like it's really anyone's game at this point, depending on like
• 22:23
  who wins and who loses. It could be anybody's division. Yeah, which is, I mean, I mean, we all
• 22:32
  know that that division stinks, but it's just like, yeah, like I think, I think Atlanta has like
• 22:40
  the most, the smallest chance to get into the playoffs. And I'm not sure if the Vikings have
• 22:49
  the smallest chance to get into the playoffs, which they're not eliminated yet. Nope. No, they're the
• 22:55
  the, it's the Vikings, Saints, Falcons, Packers, Bucks, Seahawks. Yes. So Minnesota,
• 23:07
  there's only two spots left. There's only two spots in the NFC. And I think there's like,
• 23:12
  how many teams did I just list? Like that many, that many people are still like competing for
• 23:18
  those two spots? Wild? Yes. Minnesota needs to win against the Lions at home in Detroit.
• 23:29
  It is, it's tough to see them do that at Detroit. Because I mean, I think the Lions are just,
• 23:43
  they're just so angry right now. Oh, Dan, the Vikings need to win. The Bucks need to lose.
• 23:56
  And the Packers need to lose. Yeah, all three of those things like, and I think the Seahawks also
• 24:03
  have to lose. So Seahawks are winning. I'm pretty sure if they, if they beat, if they beat San Francisco,
• 24:12
  I'm pretty sure they're in. I'm, I think the only two that are winning in are the Bucks and the Packers.
• 24:22
  Because there's one wild card spot left in the NFC south is still up for grabs. Yeah.
• 24:30
  So there's only one wild card spot left because the Rams clinched last week
• 24:36
  for the six seed. So there's only one wild card spot left. So Seattle does need to win,
• 24:44
  but they also like need a bunch of other shit to happen. Oh, they do. But they have a better chance
• 24:51
  of getting in than the Vikings for sure. Yes. Yeah. I mean, the Vikings are not going to win that game.
• 25:01
  No, no, they're not. No, I have Lions minus three and a half right now. I do too. I do too.
• 25:07
  I don't care who's like playing that game for the Lions. They're not losing.
• 25:16
  For sure. Yes, Seattle needs to win. Green Bay needs to win. They're playing the Bears
• 25:24
  and Seattle's playing the Cardinals, both very winnable games for both those teams.
• 25:32
  And I was looking today and I think, I mean, it seems that the Green Bay Packers are actually like
• 25:44
  able to put up points, you know, I feel like terrible. Yeah, they're not as terrible as like,
• 25:52
  as I previously thought, and as other people thought, I think like they're averaging something like
• 25:59
  20 plus points a game, which is crazy. I don't know. I feel like every other team is not as consistent
• 26:06
  with that. I think they've only scored under 20 like once or twice, which is insane. And Dallas
• 26:15
  and Dallas needs to win against the commanders proceeding because if they lose against Washington,
• 26:24
  I think they'll switch seeds with the Lions. And so the the Lions, surprisingly, can secure
• 26:34
  the the two seed barring if the Cowboys lose and and the Eagles also have to lose against the Giants.
• 26:49
  But if the Cowboys and the Eagles lose, the two seed is locked up by the Lions.
• 26:55
  Right.
• 26:56
  Right. Correct. So it seems like the Dallas game matters and the Lions and I don't know if y'all
• 27:06
  thought of this, but the Lions, as it stands right now, they're at the two seed, and they're
• 27:13
  going to play the Rams in the first round of the playoffs. Wouldn't it just be like one of the most
• 27:20
  Lions things possible that they lose in Detroit? Yeah. Yeah. I saw I saw a meme not too long ago
• 27:31
  that was like, this is the last infinity stone to the to the gauntlet that is that is the Lions
• 27:41
  losing in fantastic fashion. It's their it's their last stone of misery. Yes. The last the last
• 27:50
  like horrible thing that can happen to them. And then after that,
• 27:55
  I don't I feel like you can't name another awful thing to happen to them losing in a, you know,
• 28:03
  just a fantastic fashion after it just it feels like they invent new ways to lose games. I will
• 28:12
  be very sad if I will be very sad if they lose to Matt Stafford. Yeah, I would be sad. I'll be very
• 28:19
  sad for them. That would suck. Yeah, that would that would suck. That Oh, man. I can't even imagine
• 28:29
  being a Lions fan and losing to Matt Stafford. Your savior for over like 10 years, just like
• 28:42
  that would hurt my soul. Yeah, that's that's that's the last that's the last infinity stone
• 28:52
  of horrible ways to lose to the Lions, as they invent new ways to lose. They'll figure it out.
• 29:00
  They'll figure out the ways out. Yeah, they'll figure out new ways to lose. Okay, I think that's
• 29:07
  all of the really thing like games that like actually matter.
• 29:12
  So wait, so the Eagles, they're not like locked up. They are. Okay, they're in there.
• 29:24
  Not they're not win that division, but they're in. Right. Well, I mean, if the cowboy, even if
• 29:31
  the cow lose, are they and they win or they do they win the division? If the cowboys lose,
• 29:37
  and the Eagles win, they are NFC champs NFC East. Okay.
• 29:44
  Oh, cat. I didn't even. Yeah, like that's that's what yeah, yeah, that's true. Yeah. Okay. But
• 29:55
  Cowboys, I mean, I don't think the Eagles are out of it out of the
• 30:01
  the champ race right now, but they're collapsing. But I know, but they
• 30:11
  I have, we'll get into it, but I have giants plus five on my card, because I don't trust any
• 30:20
  any I don't trust the Eagles right now, especially on points. I don't trust the Eagles,
• 30:26
  especially on the road. But the cowboys are also on the road, and they are notoriously terrible
• 30:34
  on the road. They every game they've lost has been on the road. And I it just comes down to
• 30:44
  really that like both these teams are playing on the road. It's whoever gets the the win away
• 30:50
  from home. Whenever the cowboys are away from Jerry World, they just collapse. Even even if they're
• 30:57
  playing the commanders who have like the worst past defense in the entire league, like 30 second
• 31:06
  past defense, the worst overall defense. Yeah, well, yeah, it's just, I don't know. Who knows.
• 31:14
  The divisional matchup. That's what that's what keeps us coming to week 18. Yep.
• 31:25
  So I was writing something down, but so is there a scenario where the Eagles or the cowboys
• 31:35
  don't make the playoffs? No, they are both clenched. They're both clenched. Okay. Maybe I was thinking
• 31:41
  of a butthole. Yes, much like a butthole. Okay, now the playoffs scenarios are done. The main slate
• 31:51
  is done. Let's let's talk surefire picks. Okay, not super a lot of games this week that actually
• 32:00
  matter. But let's do our surefire picks of the week. I'm going to throw it to Chris to go first
• 32:06
  here. Who's been the consistent, the consistently good gambler here. So what is your surefire pick,
• 32:15
  Chris? All right, I said it last week, I said, if they covered last week, that would be my surefire
• 32:22
  this week. And by God, the Las Vegas Raiders did everything in their power not to cover that game,
• 32:29
  but they covered that game. So this week, my surefire double unit play of the week, Raiders minus
• 32:35
  two and a half against the Denver Broncos against the God awful Denver Broncos. And did they the
• 32:40
  Broncos went last week against the Chargers? I can't even remember. I don't know. It's the
• 32:47
  Chargers. I think the Chargers won. Well, I love it even more. The Raiders, if there is like any
• 32:56
  shred of doubt, Antonio Pierce needs to be the head coach next year. This team is going to erase
• 33:02
  that. They want this guy to be their head coach. They're going to win this game. They're they've
• 33:07
  been playing their balls off for them all year, or not all year ever since he came back or stepped
• 33:13
  into the interim coach. So it's Raiders minus two and a half. I fucking love this play. This might
• 33:20
  be a dare I say triple unit. We'll see. But it's definitely, definitely surefire double unit guaranteed
• 33:27
  not to lose Raiders minus two and a half. Take that shit to the bank. Sean, what do you take it?
• 33:33
  Well, first off, everything you just said was 100% correct. But my double unit surefire guaranteed
• 33:43
  to win play of the week. It's a tale as old as time. It's the Bears versus the Packers. Packers
• 33:50
  have a winning end situation and I feel comfortable laying the points here. Give me the Packers minus
• 33:55
  three. And also, we're going to get into this, but Jordan Love has a has a little incentive.
• 34:05
  Oh, yeah, he needs to he needs to win and get into the playoffs for a for a cool milli.
• 34:14
  Yeah, for a cool milli. Playing the Bears. Get it done, Jordan. We're rooting for you.
• 34:22
  Packers minus three. Well, what you got? Hell, yes. Okay, I was very worried that
• 34:31
  this pick would be taken. But it is not. And I'm very glad. I think I don't know if I don't know
• 34:40
  if you'll have this. Well, I mean, we didn't really talk about this. Anyway, back to the pick.
• 34:44
  Tale as old as time. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. I'm going under 35 and a half. AFC North.
• 34:54
  This this game will be a slug fest. The Ravens aren't going to quit.
• 35:01
  They might they might put in a few backups in at defense.
• 35:06
  But they're not going to quit. They should. Well, I mean, nobody's playing this game.
• 35:11
  Nobody's should play this game. Lamar Devlin. Okay, they're three and a half point dogs.
• 35:21
  Odell might Odell might but I wouldn't even play him. He gets hurt all the fucking
• 35:26
  Well, we'll get into that. We'll get into that. Yeah, we will. Oh, that's true.
• 35:31
  I'm going under 35 and a half.
• 35:33
  Uh, listen, Pittsburgh still Pittsburgh. Okay, they still stink on offense. Okay,
• 35:43
  they might end up winning this game. But it I mean, you know, who's to say probably.
• 35:50
  But that's not what I'm betting here. I'm betting the under. I think the last like 10 times this
• 35:56
  has gone under like the last eight times. This is ridiculous. This is a tale as old as time. I
• 36:02
  think this was my surefire pick in a game previous this season. A Baltimore Pittsburgh game under
• 36:09
  and that definitely went under. I'm also taking this under under 35 and a half. Very confident,
• 36:16
  double unit surefire play of the week. Let's get it rocking. Okay, I actually feel really confident
• 36:24
  in all of our surefire picks for the first time in like weeks, weeks. Yes.
• 36:37
  Yeah, I normally go with the trend center play. But
• 36:42
  they the week 18 is different. It's a it's a lot more situational. Yeah, for sure. But this
• 36:49
  this there should definitely be a trend on this game. Anyway, before we get into the rest of our
• 36:56
  cards to end the show, let's go over some player contract incentives. Okay, I got some ones that
• 37:05
  are absolute money. Okay. All right, let me just let's just get this going. Okay, who can the cooler
• 37:15
  play? He needs 29 yards to beat the to break the the rookie receiving record.
• 37:25
  And Sean McVay is very, very aware of this record. So take his over on whatever it is or
• 37:34
  like an alternate over if it's like 30 or whatever. Lines are not out yet for for the player props.
• 37:42
  So because this is Wednesday, we're recording and yeah, time, whatever. You mentioned that Gino
• 37:52
  shit. No, you mentioned that Jordan love needs to make the playoffs to make a cool mill. Well,
• 38:00
  Gino Smith needs to make the playoffs for a cool two mil. Yeah. Well, the Steelers literally stole
• 38:11
  $2 million from Gino Smith. Last week, he they stole it from him, robbed him blind.
• 38:24
  He's probably upset. Also, the Jordan love thing is half a million dollars. I'm sorry. I misspoke.
• 38:30
  That's okay. Yes. So it's probably upset. Take takes I don't I don't know the line in the Seattle
• 38:41
  Cardinals game for Seattle, four and a half. That feels very doable for the Seattle Seahawks
• 38:48
  three cover that on three now. Okay. That's a very, very doable. Well, we know that the
• 39:00
  sorry, well, you could just take his yards, his yards. I think it's like 260 to 70. I saw
• 39:08
  it like an Instagram video or whatever. Okay, other incentives. Levante David. Oh, can I go back?
• 39:19
  Yeah. But Cardinals love to be little party poopers. They're definitely poopers. They love to
• 39:29
  just kind of poops, snatch the rug out from you. So I would just I would personally I would just take
• 39:38
  Gino props instead of laying any type of points. Just it's all Gino in that game.
• 39:48
  Okay, there we go. Yeah, that's probably the the save or play there.
• 39:53
  Okay. Other incentives. Levante David on the bucks needs half a sack for 150 get 150k.
• 40:06
  They're playing the Panthers. The Panthers stink. I think they have like the 29th ranked
• 40:12
  offensive line. It's ridiculous. If you can bet on that, I would bet on that.
• 40:18
  Okay, another defensive prop. Jadavian clowny needs a half a sack for 750k versus the Steelers
• 40:28
  who have the 31st ranked offensive line. One of the worst in the league. I made sure to write
• 40:35
  that one down. Let's see. Have you love hold on. Jadavian clowny. Have you so I saw that earlier
• 40:44
  today? Have have you seen how kind of good he is this year? Yeah, unfortunately, yeah, yeah.
• 40:55
  What the fuck, dude? I just had to put that in, you know, as a Titans fans like it's just like
• 41:05
  he's got eight and a half sacks on the season. And he needs one more for a million dollar bonus
• 41:12
  or whatever, whatever bonus it is. And I'm just like, no, I'm not betting that fuck you.
• 41:17
  Yeah, exactly. I'm not touching that. Also, unrelated to that, he wears number 24. Yeah,
• 41:24
  that's not a defensive number. He should be in prison. That's like that. What's his face for
• 41:33
  that for Florida? No, no, no, no, no, no, for for Ohio State, the quarterback for Ohio State wearing 33.
• 41:42
  Oh, yeah. I was I was like, dude, I can't trust a quarterback that's wearing 33.
• 41:49
  There was some I can't remember if he played this year. He might have I can't I don't remember
• 41:54
  some fat fuck for Florida. He was a defensive lineman who weighs about 390 pounds. He wears 21.
• 42:04
  Okay. Like what are we doing? Fat numbers. That's how many burgers he eats in a day.
• 42:13
  I mean, I put on that.
• 42:17
  I'm like, we have to have some sort of order in this country.
• 42:21
  Liman where lineman numbers are if you're an edge rusher, whatever. But if you're a big old
• 42:27
  Haas like that, you wear 90 or 99 like no, stop this bullshit. Anyway, sorry. That was my old
• 42:35
  man yelling at the clouds moment. Chris didn't know that was a that was a trigger for him.
• 42:42
  Apparently it is. It's a big one.
• 42:45
  Okay. Let's see. Devin single Terry.
• 42:53
  Jordan Love. Weren't you gonna say Jordan? Well, I mean, he said that or you already said that.
• 42:58
  Yeah, I did already say it, but I didn't know if you had more. No, not I didn't have more on it.
• 43:05
  I just in parentheses, I put over passing yards against the Bears. But the Bears have
• 43:10
  a pretty good defense. So I probably I probably take the numbers there. It's I think it's at three.
• 43:19
  Haggers minus three. It's sure fire pick. Yeah, three. So there you go. Another reason another
• 43:27
  reason to take Sean sure fire pick. Next contract incentive I found Devin single Terry needs 76 yards
• 43:37
  on the Texans, obviously playing the Colts. The Colts run defense is pretty bad. I think I think
• 43:47
  I saw that. And he's he's gotten over 76 yards, I think six or seven times this season. Not a tall
• 43:56
  task. Take his over yards, whatever it is. Hopefully it's 76. Deandre Hopkins needs 49 yards to get
• 44:09
  $1 million. I feel like that's not a very, not a very tall task. So okay. So he needs
• 44:19
  160 yards to get a or sorry, 1000 and 60 yards for a contract incentive that seems like a really
• 44:29
  weird number. I just I just found it. He's at I found the same thing. Is that to break some sort of
• 44:38
  record? I don't think so. I don't know. I just curious. I don't know. But it seems like a weird
• 44:49
  number. Well, what's he at now? He's at 1000 and 11. Because he passed 1000 last week. Yeah,
• 44:57
  that is weird. Well, like one of the will you sent me a tick talk about some of these contract
• 45:05
  incentives. And it was like Deandre Hopkins needs to get so and so yards to reach over 1000. And I
• 45:12
  was like, he's already at 1000. So I'm very I'm very confused on on this contract incentive.
• 45:22
  Um, it's like a it doesn't need like seven catches or something. Yeah, that's I was
• 45:28
  a decent. Okay, I was just about to but I was I was going to say that, well, you probably have
• 45:33
  this written down as well that he does need seven receptions to get a $250,000 bonus.
• 45:41
  I didn't I didn't write that down because I felt like seven is a lot from Ryan Tannehill who didn't
• 45:48
  throw him the ball the first three games of the season. I think Levis might be.
• 45:54
  He might be playing. I'm pretty sure Levis is playing. Yeah, I did not I did not know that.
• 45:59
  That's on me. I think Levis might be playing. And DeHop got seven last week with Tannehill.
• 46:07
  I didn't even watch that game. I was paying attention to games that I bet on. This is our
• 46:16
  cross to bear. We watch this team. We will be rewarded for the afterlife. So he needs he needs
• 46:25
  seven. But I would say that if you can get his total receptions under seven to take like five
• 46:34
  is like five and a half, four and a half, five and a half, whatever, I would hammer that. I would
• 46:40
  absolutely hammer that. I agree. Sounds that sounds reusable. I'm doing this a line because like
• 46:47
  I don't I'm I'm very like just on the fence about the yards because I don't know which is true. I've
• 46:56
  seen like multiple things that he needs like 70 yards. He needs 49 yards. He needs whatever
• 47:03
  like amount of yards. I've seen like multiple things about his yardage. But what I have seen
• 47:09
  is that his receptions are always the same. So I would just take his over on receptions if possible.
• 47:17
  OK, that's that. And then I think the only the only other one I have written down is
• 47:27
  Chris Jones on the Chiefs needs half a sack for $1.25 million dollars.
• 47:33
  Who they who they're playing the Chargers Chargers. The Chargers have a terrible offensive.
• 47:42
  Oh my god, it's so bad. Yeah, I would hammer this unless it's like minus 200 or something,
• 47:48
  which half a sack for Chris Jones. Yeah, half a sack. I think this line will probably be like
• 47:57
  they'll take this into a one and a half. Yeah, like if you can get it at like one and a half,
• 48:02
  I would probably still take it but not hammer it. Yeah. But yeah, just I mean, also,
• 48:13
  I don't know how long Chris Jones is going to be out there for also. I think he might be out there
• 48:20
  to record his sack and then he's done. That's because because like Chiefs are locked in. Yeah,
• 48:28
  three. They're locked in. They cannot move. So I don't even know how many starters the Chiefs
• 48:36
  are going to have out there this week. Yes. This will be a crapshoot for for the rosters.
• 48:45
  And that's probably why they're they're waiting on but not the lines for the oldies. Yeah.
• 48:51
  So I was I was surprised that player prop lines weren't out today. Chris, do you have a question?
• 48:57
  No, I have an incentive that I'm surprised you didn't bring up.
• 49:02
  Let's go. Dalton Schultz needs six catches for 250,000.
• 49:09
  I'm just no, no a brown, no Robert Woods, no tank dealt. Who the hell are they gonna throw it to?
• 49:16
  I'm taking whatever his receptions over his I'm taking it and I'll probably take an alternate
• 49:20
  line. I didn't really I didn't really put that into account because when I saw together that all
• 49:27
  those injuries. Yeah. He's like he's only reliable. And he's been good this year. So he's really the
• 49:34
  only reliable quote unquote receiver and there's a tight end on that team as of this moment.
• 49:40
  But they're three receivers big now. If you look at like it if someone like, I don't know what
• 49:48
  week seven of this year and you're just like, Hey, Dalton Schultz over six and a half receptions.
• 49:55
  And you're like, No, like that's how I looked at it this week. I was like, Dalton Schultz,
• 50:02
  six receptions, no way. But you're making a lot of sense. Like, yeah, you're making a lot of sense.
• 50:08
  He could catch like half of those within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
• 50:12
  Yeah. So and you're right. So yeah, I'm taking that whatever his receiving like reception total
• 50:19
  is and then an alternate five or probably six plus or over five and a half, whatever it ends up being.
• 50:28
  That's a I didn't know that they had all those injured. How are they going to win this game?
• 50:32
  How are they going to win against Colts? Hmm. I don't know.
• 50:39
  Is that a segue I hear?
• 50:42
  Oh, yeah, we did. Never mind.
• 50:47
  Well, that's all the incentives I have written down. I tried to I tried to find a bunch more,
• 50:53
  but I did. They're tough to dig up. There's probably a billion out there that there were
• 50:58
  there were like some there were Odell ones that were like, he needs like 256 yards. And I was like,
• 51:05
  it's not happening. I was like, that's not fucking happening. Yes, that's not a franchise record.
• 51:11
  Yeah. And like, Tyreek has to have like 250 yards to set the record. And it's like, okay,
• 51:20
  let's get over 2000 for the season. He's going to need that to repair his house. Oh, yeah,
• 51:25
  caught on fire today. So yeah. So I mean, maybe he was also standing outside with a boot on. I
• 51:34
  don't know if you saw that. Oh, he's fine. Well, we're not taking him. So yeah, go bills. He's
• 51:45
  he's done in my fantasy league. So he is just another guy to me now.
• 51:53
  He's dead to me. He's not dead to me. I mean, he won me. He won me like a decent amount of games
• 51:59
  got me to the playoffs. So whatever. Well, that's all the incentives I could find. So let's get
• 52:07
  into the rest of our cards. I am going to throw it to Chris, because I don't have a lot. And I
• 52:17
  might be adding some when when both you guys go. Okay. All right, I will start off. There is one
• 52:27
  game you left out will that does have a playoff implication. That is the Ravens and Steelers.
• 52:35
  The Steelers can still get in if the bills, if the bills and Jags both lose. Yeah, the bills and
• 52:44
  Jags lose therein. That's probably not going to happen. That's a tall. Yeah, obviously. Yeah,
• 52:51
  Steelers have to win. Let's be clear. Like, well, they're not going to win because I'm taking Ravens
• 52:56
  plus three and a half. Lamar ain't playing, but you know who is? Hi, we're hungry. Pro Bowler.
• 53:04
  Pro Bowler. Yeah. Let's be perfectly clear here. Like, he's pretty good. Like, the Pro Bowl things
• 53:12
  that joke because that's the flag football, whatever version, but they almost want to play
• 53:17
  off game with him against the Bengals. They were like a fumble away from almost when you play off
• 53:23
  game. Also, little stat about the Steelers in this at this point of the season. Pittsburgh is
• 53:31
  oh 10 and one against the spread in their last 11 games as a favorite of more than three and a half
• 53:38
  in December. They don't fucking serious. Yep. And what's that line? Three and a half. So
• 53:46
  Ravens plus three and a half. Pro Bowler Tyler. Next one. Stinky one. Plug your nose. Commander
• 53:59
  plus 13. I just think back to last year when they I know it was a different scenario. The Cowboys
• 54:07
  weren't playing. Were they playing anyone in the game? Week 18 last year? Yeah. When they when they lost.
• 54:17
  I don't know. That was literally 365 days ago. Whatever. Commanders plus 13. I like you said
• 54:22
  they're Cowboys on the road. Very, very different team. I don't trust them. Land 14 even as the
• 54:29
  commanders. Next one. Last game of the year, baby. Titans plus five and a half against the Jacksonville
• 54:40
  Jaguars. This one though, another little little stat thanks to the folks over at Trend Center.
• 54:48
  Mike Vrable is 10 and two against the spread as a home dog after a road loss.
• 54:54
  Give me Titans plus five and a half. And honestly, I might sprinkle moneyline at for revenge against
• 55:05
  the Jacksonville Jaguars for what they did to us last year. I hate that I'm this invested in this
• 55:14
  game. I hate it so much. I want this year to be over for the title. But I'm here I am. Bettenham
• 55:22
  week 18. All right. Next one. Another tale as old as time. Bill Belichick beats the New York Jets.
• 55:33
  That's just what he does. This could be his last time to do it as the head coach of the New England
• 55:37
  Patriots Patriots moneyline all damn day. Lions minus three and a half I added because
• 55:44
  the Campbell is who live it. He's going to lay it on him if he can. Packers minus three for Jordan
• 55:50
  Love reasons and because they're the Packers at home against the Bears or are they home against the
• 55:55
  Bears? Whatever they beat the Bears. It doesn't matter. They're in Chicago. I am 80% sure. No,
• 56:08
  it's I think they're in Lambo. Regardless, I don't care. I'm bet I don't care if they're playing
• 56:16
  in fucking Moscow. I'm taking the pack. I'm taking the Packers against the Bears. That's just what
• 56:22
  you do. And then this game is essentially these two teams Super Bowl we talked on. I talked about
• 56:29
  earlier Falcon Saints under 42. Both these defenses have to come to play. Also both offenses suck.
• 56:37
  So under 42 and as some of those props I talked about earlier and that is the card. So I'm actually
• 56:45
  really excited, especially for like a weird week 18. I'm pretty excited about this card. So Sean,
• 56:52
  let's get into yours. Yeah. Well, first off, I share your sentiment and excitement. I am like,
• 57:00
  I'm getting more excited like talking about it. When I was making these picks, I was like,
• 57:05
  ugh, this sucks. But all of my remaining picks have kind of meaningless games. I just want to
• 57:16
  put that out there. But for good reason. First off, I got Jets Patriots under 30 and a half.
• 57:26
  Maybe the worst offenses in football right now going head to head with nothing to play for in
• 57:31
  week 18. God, that's so stinky. Oh, plug your nose. I don't care how stinky it is. I'm going to take it.
• 57:42
  Another meaningless game, Browns Bengals. Browns had the five seed locked up. Bengals are eliminated.
• 57:49
  Expect the backups to be rolling out under 37 and a half. We touched on it a little bit. I
• 57:57
  had the Lions minus three. But as I said, I will be betting the Lions team total over when they're
• 58:06
  playing inside for the remainder of the season. Team total over 24 and a half. Eagles Giants.
• 58:17
  I think I touched on this a little bit earlier, but I do not trust the Eagles on any type of points.
• 58:22
  I think if you're smart, you bet the Eagles first half spread and then you bet the Giants full game.
• 58:32
  I bet them. No, just like you. You bet the Giants plus five, but you also have Eagles minus two and
• 58:39
  a half or whatever it is first half because they just crumble. They can't do anything in the second
• 58:47
  half. I don't know what they're going to do. I don't know what they're going to do in the playoffs.
• 58:56
  I won't be shocked if they, I mean, they're going to be what, like the five seed, I believe.
• 59:06
  Because the Rams are the sixth seed. Yeah. Yeah. So I believe if the Cowboys win,
• 59:13
  if the Cowboys beat the commanders on the road, the Eagles are locked up in five and they'll play
• 59:19
  the second seed, which could, which could be the Cowboys.
• 59:27
  Could be interesting, but I don't know what they're going to do. And then for my last pick,
• 59:34
  Chris, it's your surefire. And you know, this game means nothing. Both teams are limited,
• 59:42
  but one team's to have something to play for. Or I should say one man has something to play for.
• 59:49
  And that is Antonio Pierce. He is still trying to make his case to be the new head coach for the
• 59:54
  Las Vegas Raiders. And I will lay the points here for the Raiders minus two and a half.
• 1:00:02
  I personally think he has made a very strong case is to be the next head coach. But Mark Davis
• 1:00:09
  can't, but Mark Davis can't find a barber. So I assume he can't find a head coach.
• 1:00:17
  Raiders minus two and a half.
• 1:00:23
  That's my, that was my little. I love it. I love it. That was awesome. That was a good one.
• 1:00:29
  Well, what is the rest of your card? Okay.
• 1:00:32
  Okay. I got lions minus three. Dan Campbell is going to have these boys playing.
• 1:00:40
  They're going to be upset. They're going to be irate. They're going to be
• 1:00:46
  not very fun dudes to be around. And like Minnesota, like they're in shambles.
• 1:00:54
  It's there. They're not going to win this game. So lions minus three is the play. I do like the
• 1:01:03
  Pat's money line here. What is the line in that game, Chris? Do you know?
• 1:01:08
  I'm pretty sure they're minus one and a half. So I just took money line.
• 1:01:13
  Okay. I'm adding the Pat's money line. I think.
• 1:01:20
  Yeah, there's there's so much one and a half. So I got minus 125 on the money line just just in case.
• 1:01:27
  Yeah. I think low key, the conspiracy theory is in that Bill Belichick is going to leave.
• 1:01:35
  And since he's going to leave, he's going to he's going to try to fuck over the Pat's.
• 1:01:42
  And he's always going to try and win. He's not. Bill Belichick does not try and lose games.
• 1:01:48
  No. And it's the jets, the jets stink. He hates the jets. Yes. It's like,
• 1:01:58
  I don't know. It's like he has like a personal vendetta or like, I don't know, he made a deal
• 1:02:04
  with the devil like, I will be the best if I an exchange, I'll always be the jets.
• 1:02:10
  There you go. That didn't really make a lot of sense, but I'm taking Pat's money line.
• 1:02:18
  No, and I'll also be because he's still alive.
• 1:02:22
  Exactly. He's probably lost to the jets once or twice.
• 1:02:27
  Yeah, but you know, whatever. That was a failed joke. We're going to move on.
• 1:02:34
  We're going to move on. I should have thought of this previously.
• 1:02:36
  Sorry, Will.
• 1:02:37
  It's okay. It's my fault. Next. The only other play I got is Packers minus three. Jordan Love.
• 1:02:49
  The Packers can make the playoffs. They have the ability to make the playoffs
• 1:02:54
  against the Bears. We've got nothing to play for.
• 1:02:56
  I'm hoping that like that's is that it? If do the Packers only need to win?
• 1:03:08
  It's a win and end game. It's a win and end game. Okay. Well, that's, I mean, that's
• 1:03:14
  that's it right there. That's the Packers minus three. That's the play. I'll probably end up taking
• 1:03:20
  the Raiders. You know, I'm just going to write that down. I'm just going to make it make a
• 1:03:26
  permanent. What was your surefire, Sean? Packers minus three. Oh, there we go. Yeah, you're good.
• 1:03:35
  I'm great. There's my plays for the week. I probably won't end up taking any of the props.
• 1:03:44
  What's up? We got six minutes. We got six minutes. Okay. I probably won't end up taking any of the
• 1:03:52
  props because I'll be out of town starting tomorrow and the lines will come out and I'll be in a
• 1:03:57
  state where sports betting is, I mean, it's legal, but it's, you know, when you're when you travel
• 1:04:05
  from state to state, it's just more complicated. So I'm probably lock in different accounts, right?
• 1:04:12
  Like, yeah, it's like almost like different accounts. Yeah, I'm not doing that. I'm going to put in
• 1:04:18
  put in these these bets that we have lines for probably after this.
• 1:04:27
  I and then I I mean, if I'm at the airport tomorrow and I see some incentives come in,
• 1:04:32
  then I'll lay them. But that's all I got. But okay. That's it. That's it. That's the show.
• 1:04:46
  Thank you so much for listening and watching. Check out our bio for all the social media,
• 1:04:54
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• 1:05:01
  Super great betting tool. They just added college basketball. Let's go. Let's go.
• 1:05:09
  I'm so excited. I took the under in Xavier Villanova today. I will be checking that after the show.
• 1:05:20
  I was gonna say, do you know what the score is? No, I don't. I choose not to.
• 1:05:26
  To shut up, Chris. Don't look at me like that.
• 1:05:34
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• 1:05:47
  Yeah, hope everyone had a great new year.
• 1:05:49
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• 1:05:57
  Gonna be crazy. Is there any more ball games?
• 1:06:00
  Natty. Just the Natty. Okay. Check out midweek for my will is officially back plays
• 1:06:10
  and Chris's daily college basketball plays. He always does it.
• 1:06:14
  Yeah, and nothing plays because he's hanging on by a thread as it is.
• 1:06:22
  That's that's way to boost the confidence of the people. All right.
• 1:06:28
  I started out. I started out this show saying I've gone like
• 1:06:32
  had a losing record the last four weeks in the NFL. So they should know by now. I'm not very good
• 1:06:38
  at the start out strong, but I'm not very good right now. That's okay. They made me.
• 1:06:44
  They made me if anything, except the Packers.
• 1:06:49
  Yes, that is guaranteed not to lose. And the Raiders and the Raiders.
• 1:06:55
  And we will check you out next week. Thank you so much for listening and watching.
• 1:06:58
  There's three of us. Now let's make some money.