Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / Mortgage rates climbing and not because of the FED meeting
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: Currently in Santa Clarita, of course, and across the entire real estate board, it's going to depend on your credit rating, it's going to depend on many things, but interest rates are up overall for real estate, and that's starting to cause well some slowing down in real estate.
- 0:14SPEAKER_00: Now every year at this particular time, we usually have a slowdown just like this.
- 0:18SPEAKER_00: It's because school went back into session a while back.
- 0:22SPEAKER_00: And then through the holidays, it usually isn't as fast as the hottest time of most years, which is going to be in the spring.
- 0:29SPEAKER_00: Now, barring a foreclosure market and other things, the spring usually is the fastest time.
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: And then of course as we get into fall and then winter, things slow down a little bit.
- 0:38SPEAKER_00: That doesn't mean properties aren't selling.
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: Properties are still moving at a pretty good clip.
- 0:42SPEAKER_00: 50, 60 every seven days typically are going out.
- 0:45SPEAKER_00: At least that's the current volume now, as we're here heading towards the end of September 2026.
- 0:50SPEAKER_00: So the Fed had their meeting.
- 0:52SPEAKER_00: That Fed meeting has to do with the uh credit type interest rate that banks borrow by, borrow by, but the interest rate based on mortgages, that's based on the 10-year bond, and that market is also not very comfortable, and people are very happy.
- 1:07SPEAKER_00: A lot of those bonds are being offloaded.
- 1:09SPEAKER_00: Now we have a higher interest rate in the housing realm.
- 1:11SPEAKER_00: In the sevens, typically, if you look online, there's going to be different variables.
- 1:15SPEAKER_00: Some of that's teaser stuff.
- 1:17SPEAKER_00: It's basically the way that they bake it in, they're looking for, they're trying to elicit some kind of a reaction from you.
- 1:23SPEAKER_00: So if you have a local lender you work with, somebody like maybe your agent referred you to them.
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: And of course, they gave you some number for interest rate because they ran all your numbers.
- 1:33SPEAKER_00: They looked at your entire credit profile, they know exactly how much you're going to put it, be putting down, what that loan program looks like.
- 1:39SPEAKER_00: Then uh you're, you know, three o'clock in the morning, can't sleep, you get up and you're watching, you know, television, and you're after the preacher goes off, the uh financial commercial comes on, and they're telling you, oh my gosh, you can come here, and they're giving you this magical rate, right?
- 1:53SPEAKER_00: You can't believe it.
- 1:54SPEAKER_00: You're looking at it, and or maybe it's on TikTok because once you start talking about real estate with an earshot or inquiring about real estate on your devices or whatever it may be, everything starts to listen, right?
- 2:06SPEAKER_00: It's like you talk about Charmin toilet paper, all of a sudden toilet paper is flooding your box.
- 2:11SPEAKER_00: It's on everything that you see.
- 2:13SPEAKER_00: You can't turn around without seeing some kind of advertisement for toilet paper.
- 2:16SPEAKER_00: Well, welcome to where we are today.
- 2:19SPEAKER_00: These ads are gonna follow you, and especially the ones that are trying to solicit your business with regard to mortgages.
- 2:25SPEAKER_00: So then you're gonna see these mortgage companies popping in with these super awesome special rates, and you're like, oh my God.
- 2:30SPEAKER_00: So they're gonna give you rates that are gonna be very different than what the lender that's already pulled your credit, knows all your numbers, knows the actual present loan programs and what applies and is applicable to this particular market, but you're gonna have a question.
- 2:44SPEAKER_00: And in some cases, instead of waiting until tomorrow when the lender's going to be awake, it's three o'clock in the morning, right?
- 2:52SPEAKER_00: The preacher just sold you this prayer cloth for$25 because he you have he has faith in you.
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: And now your next step is to, well, you call the one-eighter number.
- 3:02SPEAKER_00: And the people on the other end, somebody answers, maybe it's AI, maybe it's a human, and they of course get all of your information and run your credit.
- 3:10SPEAKER_00: And lo and behold, you have a now a secondary inquiry on your credit, and they promise you a rate.
- 3:17SPEAKER_00: Now, that particular rate they give you, there's probably small print that says this is going to be dependent on the day and time the rate is locked.
- 3:26SPEAKER_00: So the rate isn't locked yet.
- 3:27SPEAKER_00: The fact that they give you an interest rate, great, but it's completely meaningless.
- 3:33SPEAKER_00: I can give you an interest rate too.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: But what happens is whenever the rate is locked, that's when it becomes real.
- 3:39SPEAKER_00: And in some cases, most lenders usually, it depends on the lender, but they usually lock it once and they usually just let it go like that.
- 3:47SPEAKER_00: And the time that they lock it is the time that you have an accepted offer and escrow is officially open.
- 3:52SPEAKER_00: So boom, then it's locked.
- 3:54SPEAKER_00: And then if that time the rates are up or down, depends on what you've discussed with your lender, depends on what the lender does.
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: I mean, if the rates have come down since you talked to them, they might honor that and and give you a little bit lower of a rate.
- 4:05SPEAKER_00: But if you're good with what they promised you and rates came down, who knows what they're going to do.
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: That's always a good conversation to have up front.
- 4:12SPEAKER_00: But right now, we see those rates are up just a little bit.
- 4:15SPEAKER_00: Just don't get caught up in the in the BS when people are promising you something and then you're going all in and having your credit run again because in some circumstances, multiple credit runs, it's salvageable most cases, but it's just a pain in the butt if you have different credit runs by different lenders.
- 4:34SPEAKER_00: So whenever you get ready, doesn't mean you can't choose who you want, but you know, talk to them, interview them, see how they feel, see what they're like, see if they're local.
- 4:42SPEAKER_00: Local is kind of a big deal.
- 4:44SPEAKER_00: And just from experience, whenever there's a problem, and sometimes on the financial end, just like with real estate agents, you have problems.
- 4:52SPEAKER_00: Sometimes on the financial end, there's a problem, there's an issue.
- 4:55SPEAKER_00: It just sucks having to call on the phone, depending on what kind of person you are.
- 4:59SPEAKER_00: If you're a boomer or an Xer, you know, you kind of want to go talk to somebody, you kind of want to see them, you want to shake their hand, look them square in the eye, and say, hey, Jack, you know, or whatever.
- 5:08SPEAKER_00: But I know that we're a little rough in this generation.
- 5:11SPEAKER_00: But some other people like it over the phone, but it is kind of nice to have that option.
- 5:15SPEAKER_00: And people, people in that world have uh less of a propensity to maybe take advantage when they know that you can drive to their office or catch them at lunch at Starbucks or wherever people have lunch these days.
- 5:29SPEAKER_00: You can catch them out in the world uh and they're not based in New York, you know, working out of some basement or some telecenter, selling loans all day long.
- 5:37SPEAKER_00: But they have a real brick and mortar office you can walk into.
- 5:40SPEAKER_00: Yeah, people tend to be a little bit different on the offering end of it.
- 5:44SPEAKER_00: So if something's going to be dishonest and somewhat fraudulent, maybe bordering that, of course, we're not gonna make uh make any accusations against anyone online.
- 5:54SPEAKER_00: It's just nice to have that local accountability.
- 5:56SPEAKER_00: So then you can go and you can say, hey, what the hell?
- 5:58SPEAKER_00: What's wrong with this?
- 5:59SPEAKER_00: Most of the people, if an agent's referring you to a lender, a lot of times they'll do that heavy lifting, but it's still your choice.
- 6:06SPEAKER_00: If an agent says, hey, you gotta use my lender, he's great, gotta, gotta don't cut it.
- 6:11SPEAKER_00: You use whoever the hell you want and you just do it.
- 6:14SPEAKER_00: It might not be a bad idea to get an idea of both of them.
- 6:17SPEAKER_00: Talk to the person your uncle, uncle Tony's recommending, then talk to the cat that your agent's recommending too.
- 6:23SPEAKER_00: And then if you see something online or your credit union or whatever, then go all in and check with them as well.
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't give anybody your credit rating or your social security number and all those other fancy things until you really had a good feeling.
- 6:36SPEAKER_00: At the end of the day, you can have them give you an interest rate, you can have it locked, and you know, if you think it's too much, or you see something at, you know, three o'clock in the morning and you think, you know, you're getting ripped off, you got to put that in the email.
- 6:49SPEAKER_00: You got to make the phone call, but you also need to put it in the email.
- 6:52SPEAKER_00: Hey, hey, uh Tony, I feel like I'm getting ripped off here.
- 6:55SPEAKER_00: I was up at 3 o'clock in the morning, just bought the prayer cloth.
- 6:57SPEAKER_00: The preacher's gonna say a few words for me, and then I saw this commercial from XYZ Loan Company.
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: God, I hope there isn't one.
- 7:05SPEAKER_00: XYZ GED loan company.
- 7:07SPEAKER_00: I'm sure there's not one of those.
- 7:08SPEAKER_00: And they were quoting this particular rate, so I called them, gave them my scenario, and they said, sure, they'll be able to get me that rate tomorrow, and it's gonna be an entire one percentage point less than what you promised me, and they're gonna sign me up tomorrow.
- 7:21SPEAKER_00: Float it by your lender before you start changing things and changing dynamics.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: Now, if you're in a real estate transaction and you have a lender that's telling you over the telephone whom isn't even, doesn't even have an office local, local to you that you can go in and talk to about this thing, be very careful because in some cases, some people have hired lenders or switch lenders in the process because they saw a better deal.
- 7:46SPEAKER_00: Then when they get close to closing, those numbers change back to worse than they were originally with lender A.
- 7:53SPEAKER_00: Lender B screws them.
- 7:55SPEAKER_00: And then trying to go back to lender A and get it fixed, well, most of the time lender A will probably take that deal.
- 8:01SPEAKER_00: They're not gonna be happy about it.
- 8:02SPEAKER_00: And I don't know how they're going to be able to get you to that interest rate, especially if rates right now seem to be on the rise, and that's the trajectory of rates at that time.
- 8:12SPEAKER_00: Going back to lender A might not work out being the best case scenario.
- 8:16SPEAKER_00: But hey, you got to do what you got to do.
- 8:18SPEAKER_00: These are these are lessons that you learn having done this since 1998.
- 8:22SPEAKER_00: That's me.
- 8:23SPEAKER_00: So I've seen a couple things, and whenever I'm dealing with with my sellers, and of course, if buyers want to talk to me, I don't represent them, I'm a seller's only agent, but if buyers have questions, I give them the rundown because I did the buyer buyer end of it for over 22, 23 years in this business.
- 8:38SPEAKER_00: So if you want to talk to me about purchasing real estate, in addition, I refer those out.
- 8:44SPEAKER_00: I make money from that because if somebody comes to me and wants me to give them the intel on how to hire a buyer's agent, and I end up making uh making that introduction between them and an agent that I know, I'm gonna be charging that agent a percentage.
- 8:58SPEAKER_00: That shouldn't be reflected in what they're charging you and whether or not your fee, your fee for your buyer's agent get picked up by the seller.
- 9:05SPEAKER_00: That's that's another discussion, but good buyer's agents typically can get a fee for what they're doing for their buyers.
- 9:12SPEAKER_00: That's the world right now in real estate.
- 9:14SPEAKER_00: So whenever you're looking for somebody, if you want me to make that introduction, absolutely more than happy, and I'll I'll talk you down off the ledge and explain to you how these processes work.
- 9:24SPEAKER_00: People right now, sellers, you know, the people that are coming on the market, they're very serious.
- 9:29SPEAKER_00: Buyers that are out there in this market have more choices.
- 9:32SPEAKER_00: Right now, the market is somewhat balanced in the single-family residence realm, so single family residences, condominium, whole different story.
- 9:40SPEAKER_00: Same Santa Clarita Valley, condominiums are totally in a buyer's market with eight, eight and a half months of inventory.
- 9:47SPEAKER_00: The length of time, the the numbers of properties as they're being absorbed or being sold in in relation to the numbers that are on the market, that's known as absorption rate.
- 9:57SPEAKER_00: So we measure that in percentages and in months.
- 10:02SPEAKER_00: So if there are 500 houses on the market for sale, and every month we sell 500 houses, the absorption rate is rel is is very close to zero.
- 10:12SPEAKER_00: So there is no extra inventory.
- 10:14SPEAKER_00: Very much in a seller zone in that particular case.
- 10:17SPEAKER_00: Now, once we start stacking inventory, it starts to take longer to sell residences, then we start to see the transition from a seller's market, more inventory, slower buyers, longer escrow's, longer time to get properties into escrow, moves into more of a balanced market.
- 10:33SPEAKER_00: And then when we have properties sitting even longer, less buyer activity, more competition, then that needle continues to move over and it becomes a buyer's market.
- 10:41SPEAKER_00: Now buyers have more choices, they're able to maybe do more creative things, maybe they're able to get the seller to contribute to buying down their interest rate.
- 10:50SPEAKER_00: And just because you're not seeing that being offered in advertising, that's typically not a great idea for a seller to offer that on the public-facing, public-facing domains.
- 11:00SPEAKER_00: But understand as a buyer, you can go ask for that.
- 11:02SPEAKER_00: Hell, you can ask for pretty much anything under the sun.
- 11:05SPEAKER_00: Now, whether the seller's going to agree to it or not, that's a whole different animal.
- 11:09SPEAKER_00: But you can ask and don't worry about your agent telling you, and now it depends on competition.
- 11:15SPEAKER_00: Something comes on the market and it's priced correctly, probably not going to last very long because there are buyers out there on the market.
- 11:22SPEAKER_00: And when a good deal comes on, I'm not talking about a fire sale deal or got a sell deal, and you know, you're cutting it, you know, under you're going really far under the market.
- 11:30SPEAKER_00: That's not this market, even with the interest rates adjustments that we've seen.
- 11:34SPEAKER_00: This market is still going out within just very shavings of percentage points less than the last sold property, if not at value, depending on how the sellers took care of them.
- 11:45SPEAKER_00: If the seller has a property that needs a lot of work, a lot of TLC, there's going to be discounts having to be built into that for it to go depending on what the offering price happens to be.
- 11:54SPEAKER_00: But the seller's taking care of the house and put some little bit into it, and they got some stuff renovated, and it looks really good and fresh when people are coming in.
- 12:02SPEAKER_00: That house is probably going to go to making sure that that listing price is somewhere right at market or just a smidge underneath.
- 12:09SPEAKER_00: People say, Well, I want to leave some negotiation room.
- 12:12SPEAKER_00: Yeah, unfortunately, this just isn't that market, even in the single family realm.
- 12:17SPEAKER_00: It's balanced, yes, but it's moving over to the buyer's frame as far as inventory goes.
- 12:22SPEAKER_00: And we'll watch that continue potentially that trajectory throughout this year until we spring in February, March next year, and then the cycle will start over, barring any kind of a major economic disaster or some kind of a collapse of the market.
- 12:37SPEAKER_00: Now, typically, when the stock market's strong, real estate ain't great.
- 12:42SPEAKER_00: But when the stock market's a little weak, real estate gets better because people go out there and they want to buy that tangible stuff that they want to hunker down, they want to dig in.
- 12:50SPEAKER_00: And we'll watch that trend change as well.
- 12:53SPEAKER_00: Nothing ever stays the same.
- 12:54SPEAKER_00: Right now, the stock market looks great, but it's very pumped up for you know whatever reason, the tech end of it.
- 13:00SPEAKER_00: If if that thing ends up falling apart a little bit, we'll see real estate start to kick off a little bit, and that's gonna change the adjustment of rates, and people are probably gonna start buying and investing more in that 10-year bond market, and we'll probably get a lowering of interest rates, but right now we're not seeing that.
- 13:15SPEAKER_00: Right now, things are expensive.
- 13:17SPEAKER_00: Uh, people are still purchasing real estate though, and they're being creative about it.
- 13:20SPEAKER_00: They're asking the sellers to pay closing costs.
- 13:23SPEAKER_00: They're also asking them to buy down their rate and their mortgage for you know a 3, 2, 1 buy down.
- 13:28SPEAKER_00: So for a few years, the mortgage rate is somewhere half a little bit more than what it typically is right now.
- 13:34SPEAKER_00: So that's a help that costs the seller money, but the sellers that are out there right now might want to sell their house at a point where they're they'll be able to offer you that or you write it in your offer.
- 13:43SPEAKER_00: So for the next two or three years or whatever it is, you're gonna have a particular lower, lower than normal interest rate.
- 13:49SPEAKER_00: And then let's say in that time the interest rates drop, then you can make a decision.
- 13:54SPEAKER_00: Well, I got so much time of this, make sure there's some kind of an escape clause so you're not tied to it.
- 13:59SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm sure nobody would mind if you if you canceled that and and set up for uh reducing your interest rate with another 30-year fix, but you gotta look at all the numbers.
- 14:10SPEAKER_00: That's not, you can't just assume that it's going to be the case.
- 14:13SPEAKER_00: So, whatever you do in this buy-down situation, if that's going to be part of the way your agent or you are constructing your offer on the property, then you want to make sure that you're able to get out of that if rates come down to a particular point, so you can then refinance the whole enchilada and then have a 30-year fixed locked in at a particular rate.
- 14:33SPEAKER_00: Now, you might give up some money in that process, you just have to see if the numbers make sense because maybe interest rates won't continue to come down.
- 14:41SPEAKER_00: Now, if they continue to come down, maybe you do another refi or two, depending.
- 14:45SPEAKER_00: But each time you do that, usually it costs money.
- 14:48SPEAKER_00: I know a couple local lenders out here that are great people.
- 14:51SPEAKER_00: They include in their financing, at least for some deal, they allow for a couple uh no-cost refinances, but you know, no cost, it's predicated on you needing needing to see the numbers.
- 15:03SPEAKER_00: I can tell you stuff doesn't cost anything either, but until I put it on paper, yeah, it's not costing anything yet.
- 15:09SPEAKER_00: Take take everything with a grain of salt.
- 15:12SPEAKER_00: Final, final point.
- 15:14SPEAKER_00: You're in a deal, whether you're a seller or whether you're a buyer, you're talking to your agent or your lender or some other part of the process, even a home inspector, and they're telling you something.
- 15:24SPEAKER_00: And they're telling you something that just kind of it just kind of pokes you in the wrong way.
- 15:29SPEAKER_00: Not a good poke, but a bad poke.
- 15:32SPEAKER_00: My suggestion is you definitely want to follow up with them with an email.
- 15:36SPEAKER_00: You want to say, you know, Connor, I was talking to you the other day and you said this, this, and this.
- 15:41SPEAKER_00: I just wanted to make sure I understood correctly and give me time to answer that question because it could be important.
- 15:48SPEAKER_00: It could be that I told you in this house that we made an offer on, if I still represented buyers, that they would allow you to have your 63 cats, Tasha, Thomas, Tumultuous, and and the other T's, 63 of these cats with names all starting with T, and you know every one of them.
- 16:05SPEAKER_00: But I told you, you know what, it's gonna be just fine.
- 16:07SPEAKER_00: You don't gotta worry, they're gonna let all your cats live in the house, and it's an HOA controlled area.
- 16:12SPEAKER_00: Well, even the city, I don't know how legal that would be, but ultimately I told you this, and you might want to follow stuff like that up because you haven't talked to the HOA.
- 16:22SPEAKER_00: Hell, you haven't even talked to the city, but you know, Connor, greedy, wanting to get a sale, is gonna BS you about some nonsense that's gonna make you happy, and you don't even realize this until we get done.
- 16:32SPEAKER_00: But what are you gonna do?
- 16:33SPEAKER_00: Well, you can sue Connor, and that might work out okay, but it just takes time, and who knows if the attorneys are gonna take it.
- 16:39SPEAKER_00: It's always a pain.
- 16:40SPEAKER_00: So you might as well get it out in the open early.
- 16:42SPEAKER_00: And if Connor's lying to you, then you should fire Connor and go find you somebody else because I wouldn't want to work with somebody that was trying to bend the truth a little bit or completely lying to me, trying to get me to do something that I already kind of want to do, but misleading me, so I do it faster and maybe more conveniently for Connor's paycheck and wallet.
- 17:02SPEAKER_00: Wouldn't play the game.
- 17:04SPEAKER_00: So that's some advice for you.
- 17:05SPEAKER_00: Make sure whatever people are telling you, you give it that old, that good old high school follow-up or college follow-up in an email, and and it dep it doesn't matter who you're calling.
- 17:15SPEAKER_00: If you call HOA and you're asking them a question about your 63 cats, or you're calling them about wanting to have some kind of parties, you know, every Friday and so on, whether it's legal and accepted, you might get that guy at the HOA that can't stand him.
- 17:27SPEAKER_00: He's leaving, that's his last day.
- 17:29SPEAKER_00: He's working in the management company, he don't give a crap about information he gives out.
- 17:34SPEAKER_00: So just to be a prick, he says, Oh, yeah, sure, you're gonna be just fine.
- 17:37SPEAKER_00: Don't you even worry about it.
- 17:39SPEAKER_00: And then you move in and then you're not worried about it because he said you're gonna be fine.
- 17:42SPEAKER_00: Well, that could have been his last day.
- 17:43SPEAKER_00: He hates everybody, so he gives you bad information again.
- 17:47SPEAKER_00: Can I get your email, please?
- 17:49SPEAKER_00: I want to just verify that I got this correct.
- 17:51SPEAKER_00: And then CC everybody, CC your your friend, CC your agent, CC your lender, hell, CC escrow, CC them all.
- 17:59SPEAKER_00: Just because the more people that are on this email, the more proof and the and the more alignment you have when something might become untrue.
- 18:07SPEAKER_00: And some of these other players in the game might actually have information that might pertain to this particular query, and then you'll get them responsible.
- 18:17SPEAKER_00: And now if this person did lie to you and responds back in the email, well, you know, I 63 cats, I thought you meant 63 fats, and then I'm thinking, you know, whatever, or whatever the hell.
- 18:28SPEAKER_00: Well, now they come back and they look like an idiot in front of everybody, and I think that's uh that's not a bad place to be.
- 18:33SPEAKER_00: We all need to look a little bit like idiots every once in a while, especially when that ego gets a little big and we need to be, you know, bring it down a notch.
- 18:40SPEAKER_00: Want some help?
- 18:40SPEAKER_00: Anything you need, and I post it up at Santa Clarita openhouses.com.
- 18:45SPEAKER_00: Google's now recognizing me as being top referred in the AI space, which is awesome as far as the AI search results for open houses here.
- 18:52SPEAKER_00: That's beautiful.
- 18:53SPEAKER_00: When I can when I can poke at Zillow and Redfin and these others, it makes me well, it makes me happy.
- 18:58SPEAKER_00: When you're ready, please reach out.
- 19:00SPEAKER_00: I'll help you on any either side of it.
- 19:02SPEAKER_00: I won't represent you as a buyer, but I'm more than happy to give you my buyer's crash course, explain to you everything that you need to know, and then make that introduction to a buyer's agent.
- 19:10SPEAKER_00: If you're ready to sell, that's me.
- 19:12SPEAKER_00: Sellers only agent, you can find more about that at santaclarita openhouses.com and of course sellersonlyagent.com.
- 19:19SPEAKER_00: How does that work?
- 19:20SPEAKER_00: Why did I choose that particular business model, which is rare?
- 19:23SPEAKER_00: Why would I cut out, you know, a buyer's end of it, which could be 50 or 60 or 70 percent of my business?
- 19:28SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's just it's just it's more locked, stock, and barrel for me to be 100% on the seller's side without any any cross within arm's reach kind of stuff.
- 19:39SPEAKER_00: Even if somebody comes to me and says they want to buy that house, I won't represent them.
- 19:44SPEAKER_00: And on the other end of it, if they say I want you to refer me to an agent, I won't do that either.
- 19:48SPEAKER_00: Not on my own seller's listings.
- 19:50SPEAKER_00: I mean, I'm completely beyond arm's reach on that for everybody.
- 19:54SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with Honor Be Well.
- 19:55SPEAKER_00: We'll see you in the next one.
- 19:56SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching.