Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - This won’t end well… + Stock Market News 01 November 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - This won’t end well… + Stock Market News 01 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and finally we are live.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: We had to restart, we had to rewire, we had to move some boxes and do all that sort of madness, as we're still in the midst of this unpacking disaster.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Well, it's not a complete disaster, but it's a bit of a mess, really.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Who is going to give us some insight into the absolute shambolic disaster that is the jobs report, just in which, if you believe JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs is the end of the world?
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Now, of course, it isn't quite the end of the world and I want you to understand it.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I also want you to understand the big tech earnings and everything else so we can make lots of money, some buy signals and everything else going on here right now.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: So let's jump straight into it.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: I will just pull up the data here for you.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: I'll show you some charts, some charts.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: I'll torture you with some data and some lovely, important things that'll make you into a smarter investor, after more than 109 of you have hit the like button, hopefully, if you forgive me for being somewhat late today.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: So there we are, and you see the mess that is my screen here, because I'm working on a laptop.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: We should be back on Monday.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: We'll definitely have my study operational for sure.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: So that'll be an easier life.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: I didn't want to let you hang in here for a couple of days.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Plus, I also need to understand what the heck's going on, which is one of the reasons I do this.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: So our trades keep doing what they're doing, up over 100% so far this year.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: We're quite happy about that, aren't we?
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Tallulah, tallulah, any thoughts?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: So what did we get in?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: We got in non-farm payrolls.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: And you might say, who cares about non-farm payrolls?
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: Well, it's actually the most important jobs data from Wall Street's point of view.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: We're expecting about 113,000 jobs to be created.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: We got 12.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Who stole the 100,000 jobs, you wonder?
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Well, I've got a few culprits jobs thanks to the strike at Boeing.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: We also had some sort of hurricane, apparently in Florida you remember that one and that also had an impact.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: But still, it's a very, very big miss, isn't it?
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: And if you thought that was bad, well, they also revised down last month, as they always do, sort of in secret.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: So what's with the?
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: If you've been following me for a while, like I've been saying for about two years, job stager is made up.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: They inflate it.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: The government inflates it to make themselves look better to get reelected.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: It's not a concept that Biden came up with.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: It's a longstanding White House policy by anybody who's in there.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: So why would they suddenly come clean and what will be the impact of that?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: And note next Thursday Fed interest rate decision right, that's going to have a big impact on that, so we need to talk about that as well.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: But let me show you here first, if I'm allowed, a couple of visuals.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So this is the non-farm payroll data since 2020.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: So we had the December of 2020, that horrible month.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Everything else was vaguely pretty positive, right, sort of 200,000 jobs on average.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: This one here is really a horror show.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: It's really, really bad.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Part of me was expecting it to be negative, I must say so I was thinking well, let's dig a little bit deeper.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: And this is non-farm payroll, minus the jobs that the government creates itself.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: So that's the last trick up their sleeve Employ 40,000 people in the government, like we need more government employees, and if you take them out, well, you actually have lost 28,000 jobs, which is pretty staggering.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: And again, we have not seen that since 2020.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: So the jobs market not as bullish as people were saying.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: And am I surprised by that?
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: No, not particularly, because I've been saying this for months, for years in fact and Marcus says I think it's still going to get revised down.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Yes, probably, probably.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Well, jp Morgan said this before the data came out.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: They said if it comes in below 20,000, pack your bags and move to Mexico.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Didn't actually say that, but something like that they basically said.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Even in adjusting for the impact of hurricanes and strikes, this type of print is one that brings back the growth scare behaviour seen in early August and again in early September.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: In these cases, blah, blah, blah probability is 5%.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: They said what just happened was not going to happen.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: 95% that's how confident they were.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: This wasn't going to happen.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: If it does, they think the S&P is going to drop up to a percent and a half.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: So we should be seeing a big red day today.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at that in just a second.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Now, if we go across the street and we go to Goldman Sachs the other investment bank with a glorious, warm, fuzzy heart, they're saying if it comes in below 75,000 and we only did 12, then we're going to lose at least half a percentage point.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: But they thought about less than 75%.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: They did not think about 12,000.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Pretty big miss from 75,000.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I don't have a pen today, just have a mouse, hence I'm writing like a robot.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about the silver lining and why this is actually a glorious opportunity and how we make boatloads of money out of this.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: This is a bunch of jibber from the boy band that makes up the Fed, and Kashkari has argued that any evidence of a quick labor market weakening could lead to a faster pace of rate cuts.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Waller, the Waller agreed and therefore this plays very nicely into the Fed cutting again on Thursday.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: So I now expect a rate cut on Thursday.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I was kind of thinking they might sit it out.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: I think they now have the arguments they need to cut.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: So it makes you wonder who is really running the country.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Is it actually the White House?
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Because the White House doesn't seem to have a real interest to have this terrible jobs data, unless the reality is much worse and they manage to make it just look positive.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Who benefits the most from this?
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Well, wall Street certainly does.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Financials banks will do very well with more rate cuts.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Shall we have a quick look at the free market heat map?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I think we probably should.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Let me see here pre-market and look at that.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: It doesn't look too bad, does it okay?
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Apple disappointed in earnings?
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: We get to that in a moment.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Amazon yeah, very solid numbers.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Seven percent up.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at resistance levels there in a moment.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Tesla is still flying.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: We we love to see that.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So the market's taking this quite nicely.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So where is JP Morgan's minus 1.5% collapse today?
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Well, you're not seeing it Now.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: It's early in the day, right?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Most of Wall Street's still too hungover to realize what's gone on and they haven't had a morning meeting yet and it hasn't been explained to them yet.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Once they realize it, they might get a bit more iffy about the state of the economy and you might see consumer durables.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: You might see some of those sectors get a little bit hit.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: I would kind of expect that by the end of the day, but the more rate-sensitive stuff should actually be celebrated.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So this could be a really nice opportunity for us here this morning.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Let's see what we can do here.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Pre-market's up Exactly.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: The like counter is broken 230 likes, 1,100 viewers.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: That's still pretty harsh, isn't it?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Can we pop that out to the chat?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Does that help?
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: Maybe, but then that doesn't doesn't stay on top, does it?
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: No, it helps that much.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: See working on one screen.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: How do people do it?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: How do you work on one screen?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I never really understand it.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Anyway, we shall plow on through um data.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Oh yes, tomorrow, literally same time as this tomorrow, and i'll'll be on time I'm going to run a live bootcamp If you want to know how we spot those breakouts and how we set them up, and watch me walk you through it live and you can ask me questions.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: We'll do a nice long Q&A.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Then join me tomorrow, 9 am New York time.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: I believe that's 2 pm Greenwich Mean Time, london time.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: You know they rebranded Greenwich Mean Time London time.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: You know they rebranded Greenwich Mean Time to UTC, universal Time or something.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Some like woke bollocks to say there never was a British Empire.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Now I'm German, but you know Greenwich Mean Time was always the centre of the world.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know why I no longer use it Nonsense.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So yeah, join me on that tomorrow.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: It's going to be fun, it's for beginners, you don't need to know a thing and whether you're a trader or an investor, you'll get a ton of this.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So come and join me tomorrow.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow Earnings we need to go through Amazon and Apple and we can touch upon Intel as well.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Feel free to ask me anything else Today.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Oil majors, quite a lot of oil.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: That's really what matters today, but not that big a deal here, really.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Oh, by the way, if you can't make tomorrow because it's the middle of your night or something, there's also a shortened masterclass on this, which I pre-recorded.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: It's about 30 minutes long and you can watch that, obviously after this live stream if you care to, and phoenixtransitorg slash, get free and you'll learn how to spot those breakouts, and we'll touch upon those breakouts in just a moment.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: We've got some nice breakouts.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Well, at least buy signals here, if we hang on.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Let me just open this up On trade vision.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Here we've got SoFi is a buy again.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Disney, apparently.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I haven't looked at that yet, whether that looks like something we might want to work, buy into and what else?
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Papa John's, mnkd Day, a few stocks there.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: That's quite a jump, isn't it?
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: That's quite a jump.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, a few things there, the big stocks here.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Amazon, let's have a look at that actually.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Shall we or shall we run through the bit of data here?
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: First, I think let's have a quick look at the Amazon chart.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I'm curious.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen that yet Now.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Remember, amazon hit $200 a couple of weeks back and then Bezos the almighty was selling so you could buy more yachts or something.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: That kind of puts the lid on the party right now, right here, right now, we're trading at $199.43.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Whereas the resistance it's at $200.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: So we're slightly below that.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Very interesting to see whether we can break through the $200.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: If we break through the $200, this thing has got a lot of legs, but I think it's a tough one.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: I think $200 is a tough one to crack.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: I think it'd be good if we close around about the $200 mark here.