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Inside The Data: Amid Another Devastating Loss, A Metric That Shows Some Promise · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher, and of course, I got Sam Finkel
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: with me, and he is going to bring us all
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: the great data and analytics from another Eagles loss, third
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: straight loss in London to the Jaguars in heartbreaking, gut-wrenching,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: choose your adjective, Fashion, but it did supply us with
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: an ending that we can look at from a very
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: interesting data and analytics standpoint, Sam, which you did. And
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: I really appreciate the way you put it into both
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: visuals and we'll explain it to our listeners. And also,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: as we get deeper into the show, I did think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: that there were some and listen, I'm just being honest here.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I thought there were some encouraging things we saw offensively.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Maybe we can talk about that. if you extrapolate to
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: when they are healthier, like if they have Saquon or
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: other offensive linemen, maybe that means something for a little
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: bit of a, I don't want to call it a
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: turnaround offensively, but just an improvement.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, listen, I feel like I'm usually the
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: optimistic one. I think we might flip roles in this episode.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Okay. All right. So I try not to judge a team,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: and this is from 20-some-odd, 22 years of being a reporter.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Because I learned, you know, the 2006 season. How old
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: were you in 2006? I was eight.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: So you probably don't only have vague recollections of it,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: but I thought that they were done, cooked, McNabb out
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: for the year. Jeff Garcia gets destroyed in his first game.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: They fall to four and seven. And then they went,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: I believe six straight and win the division of tenants
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: or no tenants six, because they felt a four and six.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: There was only 16 games back then. And there were
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: some other years where they, I thought they were cooked
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: and not. So I'm not, I'm not saying I'm optimistic
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: because this year you're talking about so many injuries, a
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: new offer, like at least the 2016 was Andy Reed and,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: even with yet a success with backup quarterbacks and all,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: but I get that the, the mountain is a lot
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: higher to, to climb here, but I never ever judge
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: a team at its worst point and never by week five.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no. And that's fair. It's just at some point,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: are you prolonging the inevitable? It's something that will have
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: to be later in the season.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: We'll have to discuss it, but certainly if the season
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: does snowball further and you get to the trade deadline
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: and you're like three games under 500 or you're, 500
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: and you don't think you're that good. Like, yeah, then
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: there's a discussion. Boy, you're inside the data will become
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: like about trade value and all sorts of weird things
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: that we'd get to. But for now, I'm just saying like,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to stay the course and see how
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: this thing happens as they try to get healthier.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. And I respect that.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: I love that. There you go.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: So let's get right into the data because again, the
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: end surprised us with a or at least presented us
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: with an opportunity to really hammer that whole peak win
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: percentage thing that we've been talking about.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: See, I thought that was a fun stat ad. I
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: think the first week I had a lot of fun
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: with it was that Bills game where they won. They
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: had the miraculous comeback and won the game. I will
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: say it's less fun when it's reversed. Having two anomalous
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: losses feels really bad. I think this chart is worse than...
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: then it's probably the worst chart I've ever seen in
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: the percentage because it's there. I mean, they had a,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: according to NFL next gen stats, they had a 94%
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: chance of winning that game. I, I built a model
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: that was a little bit higher and we'll get into
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: that a little bit. Yeah. They, they had like a
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: 94% chance of winning and up until the last eight seconds. So.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: That's even worse than the week before against the Rams
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: when it was like a 94% chance with about eight
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: minutes right before the missed third and goal, right? And
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: this one was just with less than 10 seconds. That's tough.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it really is. I think I'm shocked that we're
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: seeing two back-to-back. But just the thing that is interesting
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: and to bring a little bit of, you know, hope
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: to the season is if the coin doesn't normally flip
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: this way. If the coin, again, you have a 94%, 96%,
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: whatever it was these past two games, it usually flips
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: the right way. So just because these are just two
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: really weird, unlikely outcomes does not mean it is the future.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: And I do think, back to what you're saying, it's
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: hard to judge a team that's fighting this hard despite
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: all the injuries, despite some of the other issues that
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: they have. There's merit to saying that, like, they easily
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: could have and should have won these last two games.
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: Love it.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Because if you're a, if you are a believer in
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the law of averages, right. And you see that the
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Eagles have lost two straight games where they had a
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: 95 or 90% or better chance of winning in the
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: final seconds or minutes, then you know that there's probably
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: going to be some times coming up forward where they
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: are have a very small percentage of winning in the
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: final minute or two and win that game, or they
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: just hold onto it because that's how the law of
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: averages works. Yeah.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: And I mean, you can think of last year as
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: an example that the Rams game that they had last
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: year that they won on the last second field goal block.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, that, that is also one that they probably
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: should have lost. So, I mean, it does go both ways.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Can't get out of its own way.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: No, no, they cannot. And I think, yeah, I just, it's,
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: it's just, it's, it hurts when it's back to back.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: I think that's that it hurts more. But yes, we
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: have special teams definitely shout out in the negative way,
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: but Hey, here we go.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: All right. So you built the model based on the return,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: the kick return that led to the game winning field goal.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Let's explain. Remember people are also listening, not seeing on YouTube.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: This is a wonderful chart by the way. But let's
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: just give our best explanation of what your data shows.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So let's just talk about the situation again. I mean,
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: I'm sure that's the last thing people want right now. But, hey,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: we have to do it.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Well, if I can just stop you for a second.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's really important because there's an argument.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I think that it's like politics, like the people arguing
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: the loudest will not accept that there is an alternative
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: that might be equal or better to their own.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: So that's why this chart's important.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I think there's a very nuanced take that
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: this data kind of led me to believe, and I'll
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: kind of get into that. But again, the Eagles led
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: 17 to 16 with eight seconds left. Jacksonville had no timeouts.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Sirianni really had two options, right? You kick for the
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: touchback and leave Jacksonville all eight seconds, or you kick
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: it short and try to burn the time on the return.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: But basically the trade-off is really straightforward here. It's Field
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: position versus seconds on the clock. What are you willing
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: to give up? And to examine that, I went through 2,159
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: ordinary kickoff returns from 2025-2026 before the Jaguars game with
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: landing spots between the goal line and the receiving team's 20.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: I also analyzed 238 quick pass plays, 185 from 2015
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: to 2023, and then 53 from 2024 to 2026 prior
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: to this game.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Okay. The model considers the resulting field position and the
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: time remaining. Potential quick passes, whether the clock stops and
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: whether Jacksonville can attempt a field goal. It also allows
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: a desperation touchdown chance. So difficult scoring situations aren't automatically
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: treated as zero in this model. So if we start
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: with the touchback branch of it, Jacksonville gets the ball
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: at the 35 with all eight seconds remaining. Under our
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: default assumptions, the model puts the Eagles win chance at
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: approximately 99.08%. Okay. Now look at the returnable kick, right?
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: Using historical return endpoints and the time those returns consumed,
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: the Eagles modeled win chance rose to 99.34%. That's an
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: advantage of about a quarter of a percent over the touchback.
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: So just based on that alone, It makes sense to
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: make that decision. But there is an important wrinkle that
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: I think needs to be kind of understood here.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, I think I know what you're going to say,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: but go ahead.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: Using historical return endpoints, I'm sorry, those historical returns weren't
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: necessarily situations where the returner needed to preserve a few
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: seconds for a winning field goal. So I tested an
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: alternative hypothesis. What if the returner deliberately stops earlier? So
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: I estimated possible stopping points by assuming steady progress along
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: the observed returns. Obviously, I don't have the tracking data.
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: If I had the tracking data since it's been incorporated
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: the past couple of years, that would be even better.
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: But I didn't have access to that. So we kind
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: of leave it at that. But in that scenario where
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: a player deliberately stops upon the return using part of
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: that eight seconds, the model win chance falls to 98.89%,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: making the touchback preferable by about two-tenths of a percentage point.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: So to me, the takeaway is that kicking short has
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: a defensible clock management benefit, but its advantage depends on
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: how the return unfolds and how intelligently the returner preserves
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: that time.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: So it's almost like if they took the kick and
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: didn't kick it directly to the returner or they used
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: a dirty kick or they did something else, it would
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: have been preferable. It was essentially the worst case. I mean,
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: it was the worst case scenario. but factoring in the
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: fact that he could stop prior.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So yeah so here's the thing and now i want
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: to try to put it in like a layman's terms
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: right for people The Eagles, either decision they make, they
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: have an extraordinarily high opportunity to win the game, favorable
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: opportunity in the 99 percentile. Even if you take your
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: early stop scenario, that estimates 98.9 is close to a
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: 99 percentile. It's hard for the models to take into
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: account who the kicker is. Certainly, this is all enabled
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: by the fact that Cam Little is one of the
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: few guys that can just wake up from bed and
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: make a 57-yard field goal, right?
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: And I did account for that. Right.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Oh, did you? How's that? Oh, okay. I didn't realize that. Okay. Well, good.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: So I accounted for that by inputting his, Cam Little's
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: historical returns on there based on each, you know, rank.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: And then I extrapolated it over a little bit more data,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: like more of a historical data. Right. So, I mean,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: his 70-yarder was in there. Right.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: So, the point is, there's only a fraction of an
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: opportunity to win. And I think no matter what you choose,
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: there's a crack of a window that is open for
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: what happened with Jacksonville. Like, if you kick into the
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: end zone, maybe they get a long pass, right? And then, well,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: they didn't have a timeout. That's the issue, right? So,
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: if you kick in the end zone, they really have
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: to throw a pass, spike, and kick. See, that's what
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: I keep getting past. I don't even know how it's
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: operationally possible if you kick it into the end zone
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: for them to do it. But nonetheless, I had much
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: more of an issue with them leaving time on the
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: clock than the actual decision. I'm not saying I think
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: the decision was the right one. What I'm just saying
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: is we can't really prove, we can't go back and
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: look at what would have happened if the other if
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: they had kicked it into the end zone, right? We
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: have no idea. So, I mean, that's what happened in
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: the Dallas-Baltimore game. Everybody uses that as a comparison, but whatever.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: And I do get that. But I also will say that,
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: you know, there's another aspect of it where, you know,
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: they already let a touchdown return up. I know the
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: penalty and Trotter was ejected. So, like, those are pretty
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: big and valid things. And if Trotter was in, maybe
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: it wouldn't have happened. Great.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: All fair. All very valid points. Any criticism of it
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: is fair. I just think criticism in the name of
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the other way absolutely was the best choice, no question
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: about it, and would have worked is a little not because, again,
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: the percentages of both are so high. And you can't
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: just expect something like that was going to happen. It happened.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I will say I have in my notes
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: for the show, that the bigger issue was the mishandling
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: of time in the previous offensive possession. So I do
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: agree with you there, and I think that's just situational
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: awareness of the players and coaching. And it's really hard
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: to combat that. But I think that this decision in particular,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: I do not blame too much.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Okay. So in your next chart, the Eagles apparently, I
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: don't know how many people know this, had a historical
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: low point in this game. Why don't you tell us
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: about that?
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So according to NFL research, um, they had a
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: streak of, you know, 124 games with 40 or more
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: rushing yards, which is the longest streak in the NFL.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: And it broke this week. Um, so it was, it's only,
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: they only had 22 yards, but it's Philadelphia's fewest since
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: week two of 2015. And I think this is a
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: fun point to ask you, who do you think was
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: the leading rusher, um, in 2015 week two and i'll
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: tell you who the opponent was okay go ahead tell
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: me against the dallas cowboys.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Dallas cowboys 2015 week two so this is two years
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: this is doug peterson's first year right no no no
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: this is andy reed's last year i mean chip kelly's
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: last year chip kelly's last.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: Year i i believe so yes.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Okay chip kelly's final year um I think DeMarco Murray
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: is not on the team at that.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: No, he's still on the team.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: He is on the team.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: But I bet you he's not the leading rusher. Am
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: I correct?
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: He is not the leading rusher.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: Is it Ryan Matthews?
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: He was on the team at the time. It is
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: not Ryan Matthews.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Is it the quarterback? It is the quarterback.
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: Do you remember who the quarterback was?
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I would have to say in 2015, it was Sam Bradford.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: It was. Oh, my God.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: You ready for the stat line?
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Sam Bradford, two attempts, nine yards.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Oh, my God.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: You ready for this? DeMarco Murray, 13 attempts, two yards.
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: Ryan Matthews, one attempt, zero yards. Darren Sproles, one attempt,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: negative four yards.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Oh, boy.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: Yikes.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: So, folks, it could be worse. At least the Eagles
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: had an excuse with this one. All right, so third down.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I have some interesting thoughts on this, but let's go
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: through what the data says first.
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it was an improvement from....
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I love that dread in your voice as you have
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: to acknowledge that that disaster was an improvement.
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, listen, this is a segment I was
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: really hoping to do away with because if we were
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: to do away with it, it would mean good things
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: for the Eagles typically.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: Or, you know, maybe not because maybe if it was
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: really good, we would talk about it still. So it
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: would just mean a more normal... expectation and at this
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: point i mean i will say the eagles outperformed the
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: jaguars in their third down conversions you know and not
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: by much but they did uh which was good to
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: see um and then one other thing i'll say before
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: we really get into the data is they had no
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: third and short attempts this week.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: So yeah very interesting um because they sort of defied
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: my thing that if you don't get some third and
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: shorts you're Well, it didn't really because, again, they were
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: not good offensively. But they did wind up converting better
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: on third down despite the fact that they were living
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: in third and long.
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: At least in the first half. Because I'm going to
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: guess there's six of 15. I'm going to guess all
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: six were in the first half or at least five
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: of the six were in the first half. Right. Yeah.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that was the case. All right. So, hey,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: they were better than Jacksonville at 31%. So that's good.
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: That's really more of a deal breaker. Defense stat than anything.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: And they were over their league average of 37%. So
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: that's good. Again, somewhat improvement. But where they're not improved,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: of course, is just being in third and long so,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: so much.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: So much. Yeah.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, at this point, they have more third and
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: longs than third and short and medium combined. Before it
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: was equal. Now they have definitively more third and long.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think last week it was just one more,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: and now it's– no, two weeks ago it was just
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: only one. Like, if you totaled the short and medium
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: and compared to the long, long was plus one. Now,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: next week it was more, and now it's even more again.
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: But I will say the defense also is keeping up
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: that way too. I mean, a little bit less of
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: a margin, but, yeah, it's still the same. Yeah.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: By the way, the Eagles, as bad as they are
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: in third down, this is what I was going to make.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: The way we talk about their third down issues, and
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: they are legit, you would think they were the worst
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: team on third down in the league. They're actually not.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: They're 22nd, which is hard for me to believe that
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: nine teams are worse than the Eagles on third down.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: I'm sure they're not in it as much as the
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: Eagles are, so that's probably where they can hang their
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: hat on.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: Do you have who the worst is? Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: The worst is the Green Bay Packers. And by the way,
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: they're far worse. They're at a 27.6 conversion rate on
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: third down. So they're almost 10 percentage points lower than
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: the Eagles. And by the way, the defending champion Seattle
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Seahawks have the second worst third down offense at just
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: under 30%.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah. But again, the Eagles really don't have a third
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: down problem, Sam, as much as they have a first
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: and a second which is.
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: Something you've said pretty consistently and that was the issue
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: last year too right um that's that's very interesting i'm
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: glad you brought that into it um.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Also real quick they are converting 20 so we talk
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: about how they live in third and long and you
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: know more than twice as much as short and middle
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: uh oh no not yet but they'll get there um
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: They are converting 27% on third and long. And that
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: sounds like a terrible number. You know, 27% is awful
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: and it is awful, but that's actually not, that's one
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: of the higher third and long rates in the NFL.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: I don't have the exact number of ranking, but it
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: wouldn't be. And this game, by the way, probably just
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: helped them out against the Jags because they had several
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: third and long conversions in the first half. Like you
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: just noted, they had no attempts of third and short
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: in week five. Right. So I don't know why I'm
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: trying to like put lipstick on this, but I, guess,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: I guess I'm just giving them credit for actually having more,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: a better percentage of third and long. If you're going
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: to live there, you might as well be better at
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: it than the rest of the league. And they are,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: it's just, again, the unsustainability and it really, you know,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: that's why you don't score any points, you know?
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, while we're talking, I pulled it up. Green Bay
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: has 10 third and shorts, and then they have 55
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: mid and long. I guess that just the long is 35.
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Gotcha. So the Eagles have more at 59.
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: So they have 30 short and mid and 35 long.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: Just to give you an example of the worst team
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: in the league.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. And yet the Green Bay Packers still have
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: scored a lot more points than the Eagles. It's kind
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: of crazy. Right. Let's get into the EPA and DVOA.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: So what does the EPA chart show here?
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, again, the offense is trending slightly in
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: the right direction, but it's still significantly lower than, you know,
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: where we've historically seen it. But I will say, I mean,
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: minus 0.31% for as a total offense, it's just, it's
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: just bad. It's just, it's not good. And that's, that's
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: a big part of it. And, you know, on the
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: season they're at minus 0.21 and the league average is
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: minus 0.04. And then you look at their pass and
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: their rush. They just were not able to run the ball.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: And that's going to reflect in the basic statistics and
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: all of the advanced statistics, all of them that you're
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: going to see from here on out are, just going
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: to say that they really struggled to run the ball
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: which is yeah i mean we saw that too um
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: but yeah i mean the they're just they're they're equally
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: bad by epa metrics essentially at pass and run uh
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: at this point in the season uh which is a
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: really bad place to be.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Absolutely um epa is sensitive to turnover so it would
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: probably be worse even worse than 0.031 if the uh
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: or 0.31 if the Eagles didn't do such a good
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: job of not turning the ball over.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Correct. Which is really not a great way to be. Um,
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: but again, DVO is a better statistic, uh, in terms
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: of just understanding where they are, uh, you know, against Jacksonville,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: they were minus 22.2%. Um, and then on the season,
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: they're minus 13.9%. And this, these are normalized. So it's
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: basically saying they're 14% worse than the average NFL offense. Uh,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: And then if we look at passing and rushing, once again,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: these are not. So you have to look more at
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: the rankings, and they're 25th in both on the season. Passing,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: they were 13th this week. And rushing, they were 29th.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: But don't be surprised by the 29th, because DVOA stats
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: didn't have the Monday night game in yet. So that's
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: 29th out of 30th, just to be clear. So I'm
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: not sure that makes much better.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: No, it's really not. I guess you can hang your
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: head on a positive passing DVOA, you know, against the
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Jaguars being 13th.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: Because it's hard to, again, it's hard when you have
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: no run game and you're living in this world of
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: third and long and third and long to have, I
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: would even think, a positive DVOA, but they were plus 20%.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: And this is the worst rushing DVOA I've seen so
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: far since using the statistics. I've never seen it in
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: the 50%. Minus 50%.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: That really is bad.
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: All right.
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• 25:49
  Speaker 1: All right, we wanted to explore offensive efficiency out of
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: certain personnel. We talked last week, Sam, about how they
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: looked like they were running so much out of under
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: center and they were patting. and they were only passing
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: out a shotgun. So let's get into just the personnel
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: formations and what they said about this game.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, listen, the success rate, very bad. I mean, 32.2%
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: overall success is, is just not a place you want
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: to be. You look at the run success, 23.5%, very,
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: very bad past success, 35.7, a little bit better, but
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: still not a place you want to be. I mean, Again,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: you're looking at the personnels. I mean, out of 11,
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: they passed the ball 33 times. Out of 12, it
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: was a little bit more balanced with six on pass
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: and seven on rush. So, I mean, those were the
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: primary personnel groupings that they had when they were out there.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: And if we compare it to the season, I mean,
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: their overall success in the season in general is 41.1%,
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: which is not terrible, but it's not good. Yeah. Good.
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: But if you look where they've been out of 11,
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: they have ran the ball only 63 times and passed 155.
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: And out of 12, they have run 36 and passed 21.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: And those are the primary places where, you know, their
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: personnel groupings have been mostly due to injuries and other things.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: But that's kind of where they stand.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: One thing I was able to chart. I don't know
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: if you have this, you can stop me if you do,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: but they did pass the ball seven times on 18
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: under center formations.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: That's next. Okay. Sorry.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: My fault.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: You're good.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: We'll talk about that. Is that in the season? Go ahead.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: It's the next chart.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Oh, here we go. Season snapshot one or. Oh no, no.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: All right. This is still a season.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: When we go, when we go to formation, it'll be there.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: This is just personnel.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Great. Okay. Um, Yeah. So then did we go to
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: the season by a snapshot?
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: Basically what I, what I already said, we can move
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: on to the, the, okay.
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: Sorry about that. No, you're good.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: You're stealing my thunder.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: So here we go. You know, I'll tee you up.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: You tell me what the chart says here.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, listen, so again, we, we talked about it. You,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: you asked me to get basically on the season. So
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: I'm actually going to start on the bottom chart just, just,
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: and we'll go to it. But if you don't mind
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: scrolling down just a little bit, that would be helpful. Um,
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: So out of shotgun, they had 154 passes and 44 runs.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: That's 77% and 22%.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is for the season, for the season.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: And then under center, it was 61 runs and 26 passes.
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: That's 70.1% and 29% respectively. Now you look at this game,
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit better under center, but it is
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: worse in shotgun. And a lot of that is because
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: they had to throw the ball a lot more. Just
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: to be clear, I wouldn't use that as an indicator
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: so much so as just to say they had to
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: pass a lot more because the run game just wasn't effective.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: But if you look at that under center split, it
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: was exactly what you said. It was seven passes to
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: 11 runs, which is significantly better than what it has
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: been on the season.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: I would agree. I think under center passing at a
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: 60% clip compared to a 10% drop like that, to me,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: is very significant. I'm glad it happened. I would imagine
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: also most of that was in the first half, as
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: you said, before they had to decide to go to
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: shotgun and try to get some passing going because they
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: couldn't run it. So I'm looking forward to what the
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: next week or two or three brings especially if they
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: can get some healthier guys in terms of how they
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: mix and match out of those two different formations right
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: so I'm glad we looked on that and I'm glad
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: things changed that is what I was trying to allude
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: to earlier as maybe hey there's something here that once
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: we get healthier personnel and the team that we can
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: start to look at and say, all right, they're not
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: being as telltale as they were for the first four weeks.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. And we'll see how that trend continues, especially
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: as the injuries keep mounting. So it'll be really interesting
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: how they diversify both the personnel and the formation.
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: All right, cool. Defense now for the second straight week,
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: a negative EPA, which is good for defense, as you
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: always say.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: Definitely good. I mean, it's trending in the right direction now.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: The season's still positive, but it's basically at zero. It's 0.01 positive.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: The average is minus 0.05. So there's still a below
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: average defense. They're close to average, but they're below average unit,
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: which is reflected in almost all the statistics as we'll
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: eventually see. Again, their run defense has been surprisingly pretty good.
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: Outside of the Rams game and the Titans game, they've
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: been a negative EPA per rush. It was one of
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: the best EPA per rush defenses I've seen at minus 0.27
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: against Jacksonville.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: Sure. So are you encouraged by that? I mean, like
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: we saw Jalen Carter play well. I mean, is this
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: just what you expected normally to begin with?
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: Here's the thing with Fangio and success, right? The way,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: at least in my opinion, and I'm curious your opinion
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: on it, is the way it's successful is if they
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: have a good pass rush. And to be honest, I'm
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: including run defense in that. When you have a good
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: front seven, it takes care of the back end. And
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: I feel like almost to be successful in the Fangio scheme,
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: it's contingent on that front seven. And one thing I'm saying,
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: I think they're doing really well is pretty much mitigating
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: the run, but it's not converting from a pass perspective.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: So am I surprised that they're having a pretty good
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: run defense? No, but I'm very surprised they have a
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: bad pass defense, at least in some of these advanced
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: metrics and allowing 300 plus yards to Trevor Lawrence, which again,
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: good quarterback, but still not what you're used to seeing. Yeah.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: And then it doesn't get better knowing that, uh, JLX
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: Hunt probably not going to play against the Panthers. I mean,
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: Vic said it would take a miracle to get him on,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: so that's never good. And then Grenard might play, but
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: this guy has played, like, what, 37 snaps all year long. So, like,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: what can you expect when he goes out there if
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: he's able to go out there Sunday from a conditioning standpoint?
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: You're just hoping to get a couple of productive reps
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: out of him, but he's got to be, like, more
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: of a starter with Hunt out or at least just
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: give more, you know?
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: The thing is, the depth they have at edge, I
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: don't feel particularly strong. I actually feel like there are
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: certain players that I felt was somewhat of a liability.
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a little unfair.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Do you want to say that or are you alluding
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: to some of them?
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: I'm talking about Epinesa.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: Oh, your Penn State guy. Oh, no, Epinesa. I'm sorry.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: I didn't mean the Penn State guy.
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Ebikidi has been awesome. I think he's
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: done a pretty good job, at least in the pressure,
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: at least in the statistical standpoint.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he shows up. Like, you see that
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: he's out there. I mean, he's a backup pass rusher.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: That's what he's doing, you know.
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: But Epinesa, I feel like, does a pretty poor job
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: in run defense, too.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: Mm-hmm.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: That's just my opinion on it. I'm going to have
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: to go back and really look at the video and
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: the film and look at some of the stats together.
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: But that, that was my take from watching the snaps
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: he had to take in that game. So sure. All right.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Does DVOA agree with EPA in terms of this game
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: against Jacksonville?
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, again, they, one of the best, uh,
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: rushing perform, uh, DVOA performances. I've seen their third at
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: minus 40.3%. Uh, and then passing their 16th league average, uh,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: at six again at 3.1%. Uh, and then their DVO
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: a overall was minus 14.8. So that's pretty good for
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: the week. Um, and their seasons plus 0.3%. So again,
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: they're an average to slightly below average defense right now.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: That's just how it's been playing at this point in
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: the season.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: Kind of interesting that on the same game where they
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: had one of the worst rushing off, uh, DVO ways
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: you've ever seen offensively that they have one of the best, uh,
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: rushing DVOA defensively than you've ever seen.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Exactly.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: All right. So you've been making this point about pressure
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: and sacks and the pressure. The Eagles have six sacks, man.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: I've seen games where they've had six sacks.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah. We're not that far from the historic season, 2022, right,
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: where they had all those sacks.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: They might have had a six sack game during that season,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: if I remember correctly.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: They had nine against Carson Wentz.
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, right. I do remember that.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure.
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: So just saying, again, this is my biggest issue with
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: the defense right now. It's just their inability. They're getting pressure.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: They're just not able to convert it to sacks, which
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: is the worst part. So this was.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: The highest pressure rate. No, second highest. And third highest,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: but highest since the first two cupcake teams.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: Correct. And I recalculate the average as the season keeps going.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: So again, on the season, they're at 37.5%. The NFL
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: average at this point is 22%. And they had 36.6%
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: against Jacksonville. So they're right about their season average is
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: what you got. Mm-hmm. they actually did a pretty good
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: job converting them to sacks. They are at 4.9%, but
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: their season average is 3.3%. And the league average is 3.7%, 3.67%.
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: So it was their second best sack rate game. But
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: in terms of pressure to sack, you know, again, 16.7%
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: is the league average. And they're below it, right? Against Jacksonville,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: they only converted 13.3% of their pressures into sacks. And
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: on the season, they're at 8.7%. They're still about half
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: of the league average.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: I think Jalen Carter had the two strip sacks. That
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: was it, right?
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that was it.
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: So you would have thought, and those were all in
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: the first half. So you would have thought, and this
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: goes back to the conversation, you're getting pressure at a
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: higher than league average rate by 15%. But you're getting
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: sacks at a lower, way lower than the average rate.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: It's confounding. And again, I think of their six sacks,
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: only two have come from the edge group. So they're
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: really struggling there.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: I will say, if that issue fixes itself, the Eagles
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: defense will maybe not be in form as they were
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: last year or the year before, but they will be
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: right up there with it. To me, that is the
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: single biggest issue on defense. It is the single biggest
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: issue on defense.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree. I mean, you're built around that.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: So obviously if you're not getting what you're built on,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: then things are going to go awry.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: All right. So our four takeaways from this game.
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Again, run game stalled 22 rushing yards minus 0.75
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: rushing EPA per play versus Jacksonville. Really, really bad.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: That's that should be like almost screamed from the mountain.
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know if, as you said, you're going to
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: see a minus 0.75 rushing EPA. If you see that
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: again in a while, I'd be shocked. Unless it was
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: the Eagles.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: I'd be shocked too. And honestly, like I made this graphic,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: but I went back and looked at the number to
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: make sure it was right. And it is. And it just,
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: every time I look at it, I'm just like, how.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Is that right? Right.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: But again, the formation tendencies persist. It did get better,
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: but again, they're still basically running under center and passing
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: out a shotgun. That's, I mean, that is what we're seeing. Yeah.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: They're limited. There's injuries. I get it. The game script
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: has made it so they had to pass, and usually
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: they go out of shotgun. Those things exist, but the
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: tendency still persists, I would say. And then, again, this
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: is my biggest takeaway for the Eagles defense. Pressure is
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: not becoming sacks. They're at a 37.5 season pressure rate,
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: but only 8.7% of them are becoming sacks. And again,
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: the NFL average 16.7. And then run defense led the way, right?
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, Jacksonville, I think, was first in rush DVOA
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: on defense, and Eagles were third. So just to your
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: point that this was a pretty historic run defense matchup,
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: at least by the advanced statistics. But yeah, those are
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: the main takeaways, I would say.
• 38:57
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  Speaker 1: and up. Good stuff as always. Sam, I really liked
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  Speaker 1: the deep dive that we took there into Nick Sirianni's decision-making,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: the continued personnel tendencies, things that we will continue to
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: monitor throughout the year. And wow, some real historical data
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: there in terms of how bad the rushing offense has been.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: On our next episode, we'll preview the Jaguars game. I'm sorry,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: the Panthers game. They've got an explosive offense. So I'm
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: sure you'll have some interesting data points on that. And
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: that will do it for this episode of Inside the Data.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: You've been watching Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: For Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. We'll catch you all
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: on the next one.