Latest / The SPY Trader / March Markets: Defensive Playbook and Jobs Report Jitters

Transcript

March Markets: Defensive Playbook and Jobs Report Jitters · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , market watchers !
• 0:02
  It is 5 am on Sunday , March 1st , 2026 , here on the Pacific coast .
• 0:08
  I am your host , Barnaby Bucksworth , and you are listening to Spy Trader .
• 0:13
  We are heading into the first week of March with a cautious , riskoff vibe after a bumpy February .
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  Grab your coffee while we break down what you need to know for the week ahead .
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  The big story this week is the February Employment Report coming out this Friday .
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  Last month we saw a surprisingly strong 130,000 jobs , but this time around , the consensus is much lower at about 60,000 .
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  If that number comes in too high , the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates at the current 3.5% to 3.75% range for even longer , or potentially even hike them .
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  This threat has already been weighing on the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , also known as TLT .
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  We are also keeping a close eye on the ISM Manufacturing and Services reports on Monday and Wednesday .
• 1:04
  Manufacturing has been contracting lately , and any more weakness could fuel fears of stagflation .
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  Looking at the sectors , we have seen a noticeable rotation .
• 1:15
  Investors are pulling money out of technology via the XLK and financials via the XLF , moving instead into defensive areas like Utilities and Consumer Staples .
• 1:27
  Geopolitical tensions between the U.S.
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  and Iran are also driving up oil prices and making SPDR Gold Shares , ticker GLD , a very popular destination as it breaks through key resistance levels .
• 1:41
  Even the AI boom is facing some skepticism as investors wonder about the immediate return on investment for all that spending , which has pressured Nvidia and the Invesco QQQ Trust .
• 1:53
  This week we have three major earnings reports to watch as barometers for the economy .
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  On Tuesday morning , Target reports .
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  We are looking for signs of margin recovery , but a weak report could drag down the consumer discretionary ETF , XLY .
• 2:09
  On Wednesday after the bell , we get the big one : Broadcom , ticker AVGO .
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  While their AI networking demand is high , the market is worried about margins .
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  Finally , on Thursday , Costco reports .
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  While it is a recession favorite , the stock is currently priced for perfection , so any dip in membership growth could cause a pullback .
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  So , what is the game plan ?
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  For a defensive position , I like the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLV .
• 2:38
  It has been resilient , and holding a heavyweight like UnitedHealth Group , ticker UNH , provides stability when the Nasdaq gets shaky .
• 2:46
  To hedge against geopolitical risks , gold is your friend .
• 2:50
  SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD , serves as a great safe haven right now .
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  You might also look at the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , ticker XLE , to benefit from rising oil prices helping companies like ExxonMobil .
• 3:06
  For growth investors , my advice is to wait and see .
• 3:11
  Broadcom has a massive 73 billion dollar AI backlog , which is great long term , but I would wait for the postearnings reaction on Wednesday before buying .
• 3:22
  I am staying neutral to cautious on the broad market SPY and a bit bearish on the QQQ until we see that jobs report on Friday .
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  My final recommendation is to consider trimming some of your highrisk tech exposure and rotating about 10 to 15 percent of your portfolio into Consumer Staples via the XLP or into Gold to weather the potential volatility coming our way .
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  That is it for this early morning update .
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  Trade smart and I will see you next time !