Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Energy, Robots, and the End of Work

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Energy, Robots, and the End of Work · Elon Musk Podcast

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Thank you so much. Elon Musk says AI and robots can
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push US output to grow faster than prices within three years.
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Now we're talking about his claim that this surge can ease
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the federal debt. It set up a future where work
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becomes optional now. It links today's inflation
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pressure to tomorrow's labor choices.
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He adds that money could fade in relevance once machines meet
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most needs. And how did those claims fit
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together? And what would they change for
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you? It's a very bold claim.
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We know how Elon likes to talk about things.
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He's a futurist. He wants to make robots that do
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everything for us and then we can just hang out.
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But after the break, I'll map this three-year timeline out for
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you for output versus inflation, his twenty year horizon for
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optional work, and his idea of a universal high income funded by
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abundance universal high income. It's a little bit different than
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just universal income. He's saying that everybody will
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be pretty well off and I'll connect these points to energy,
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robotics and policy changes you would feel in your daily budget.
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Picture a conference hall with bright stage lights, a camera
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sweeping across a room of founders and policy makers, and
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Musk repeating the same thesis in different words.
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We will compare near term price relief to long term changes in
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jobs and we'll ground each step in the sources.
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And we will get right into that right after this very short
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break. Musk ties AI driven productivity
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to easing inflation now and to optional work later.
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Nobody wants to work. We all want to hang out on the
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beach and hang out with their friends.
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And he lays out a short fuse for price effects and a longer arc
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for labor with robots doing a growing share of physical tasks.
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And here's the key point to all of this.
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He treats productivity as the engine that touches your grocery
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bill, your job options and the government's interest costs.
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And let's start with the first fact.
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It says AI and robotics can raise outcome or output so
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quickly that goods and services will grow faster than inflation
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within about three years. And inflation is the average
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rate at which prices rise across the economy.
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When supply rises faster than demand, businesses feel pressure
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to cut prices or add value for the same price, and households
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like yours feel relief. Now hold on to that detail.
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Now I want to explain the debt link in clean terms.
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The federal government pays interest on a very large debt.
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Higher interest rates make that bill larger.
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And if AI expands supply and cools inflation, the central
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bank can ease rates, which lowers interest costs.
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Over time, that limits how fast the debt burden grows, and it
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gives policy makers room to fund other priorities.
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Let's do a quick reset here. Musk's near term claim is very
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simple. More output.
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Robots do all the hard work. Less inflation pressure, lower
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financing strain. Now he sets up a second clock.
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He predicts that within less than 20 years, you will not have
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to work at all if you don't want to, because machines will do
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most production. Productivity is the amount of
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output you get for each hour of work, and if machines raise that
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number far beyond historical norms, the economy can meet
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basic needs with far fewer human hours.
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That opens a new question about how income flows to you when a
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company's value comes from AI and robotics rather than labor.
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And here is where this goes. He frames one answer as a
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universal high income. The idea is that extreme
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productivity creates enough abundance to cover essentials
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and more, even as paid work shifts to choice rather than
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necessity. That changes how you plan your
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career, how cities plan services, and how schools train
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people for roles that machines can't do.
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It also puts new weight on the design of tax benefits and
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ownership models. Three years for disinflation
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from supply growth, 2 decades for optional work backed by
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abundant output. And then he connects these
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timelines to a physical product, Optimus, Tesla's robot.
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He's saying that it can do many routine tasks safely and
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cheaply, which could eliminate poverty by lowering the cost of
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essentials. A general purpose robot is a
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machine that can handle different physical tasks rather
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than just one fixed task. If units like that become
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reliable and affordable, factories, warehouses, and homes
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change how they get that work done.
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No more folding clothes, people. No more doing your own laundry
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or vacuuming or doing the dishes.
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Those are things that take up the time that you could be
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spending with your family and your friends.
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And that's what Elon is talking about when he talks about the
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Optus robot. That opens up new capital
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spending and squeezes unit costs across supply chains.
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Now let's get specific on prices here, though.
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This is very important because you feel those first.
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We all know the economy is not that good right now.
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And if robots handle warehouse picking, packing and late night
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restocking, which they kind of do right now, look at an Amazon
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warehouse. It's mainly robots.
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Delivery windows will shrink and labor bottlenecks will ease up.
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But if instead of an Amazon robot, you have an optimist
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robot walking around carrying boxes, that may do that last bit
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that the humans do, and the robots will be driving the cars.
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If it's not a robot physically driving the cars, it's a robot
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car delivering your goods and then a robot getting out of that
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car, taking it to your door, and then dropping it off for you.
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Now that's a very simple task, right?
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Pick up a box, take it to your front door.
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But you add things in there, like what if there's a dog?
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What if there's something in the the walkway?
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What if there's kids around or if they're a bunch of people
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playing football in front of your house?
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What does the delivery robot do? It's gonna be trained to handle
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the situations. And he's saying everything like
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3 to 20 years somewhere in that timeline.
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Optimist Robot is nowhere near that right now, Nowhere near
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that right now. So just take that with a grain
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of salt. His timelines are, of course,
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just his timelines. They're not backed in most
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reality. He knows what he wants, and he
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knows the outcome will be incredible if it works out.
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So he's stating that these short timelines, if it happens within
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those times, could ease a lot of our pains, right?
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So if AI handles service tasks like scheduling, claims
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processing, or customer support, response times drop and the
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overhead falls. But do you really want to
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contact a robot for customer support or if you have an
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insurance claim, do you want to talk to a robot or do you want
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to talk to a person? It's up to you.
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You know, it really depends if the robot can do a better job
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than a person. I have no problem talking to a
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robot as long as the thing gets done.
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Process my claim, man, schedule this for me.
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And we already have that. And your phone can do that for
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you, scheduling for you. You just talk to it.
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You say, hey, you know, make a calendar appointment for XYZ,
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can schedule it for you now customer support, whole other
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thing now that changes what you can save at the end of the
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month. So do we do?
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And what do we know right now? We know He also talks about
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deflation, Elon Musk, but he's a he talks about deflation all the
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time. It's when average prices fall
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instead of rise. In his view, supply outpaces
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demand in every category that the market resets at lower price
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levels while output stays strong.
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So they're going to continue to output things, build things, and
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then that makes a surplus of money, right?
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But people have to spend that money to make more money.
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That makes your paycheck stretch a little bit further though.
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And it pushes companies to win a design speed and reliability
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rather than just getting a bunch more people.
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And we've see it, I see it all the time in the tech sector.
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It's not robots, it's AI right now.
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But AI is a robot, basically, not a physical robot, but it's a
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bot doing a project that you could be doing yourself.
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Low level web developers, low level app developers, they're
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getting replaced by AICTOS, they're getting replaced by AI
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eventually. ACEO, maybe, maybe, but that's
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top of the food chain. So you can't really get rid of
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that right away because then who's going to run the company?
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A robot? They don't know what people
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want, or do they? So they want to take over all of
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the production for humans Now, this is all about energy, right?
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He says currency loses relevance if AI and robots do most of the
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production because electricity and mass become the real limits.
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The power supplies can't grow. AI systems and robots cannot run
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at full speed. That puts pressure on
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generation, storage and transmission because the value
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chain leans on stable, cheap power.
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It also raises questions about where factories and data centers
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should live and which regions can affordably scale grid
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capacity. So basically, productivity cools
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the prices down. Robots scale the labor.
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So take the people out, the slow people out of there and make
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those fast. Robots get the job done.
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You know, you know, a better time frame.
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And then you need some energy. I'm guessing nuclear, nuclear,
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mix of nuclear and solar because those don't run out and I'm
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assuming those'll be the best 2 power options for the robot
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overlords. Now let's talk about the work
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you might still choose to do though, because if you have all
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this money extra, you're gonna wanna do something that's fun
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and optional. It doesn't mean idle, though.
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It means you pick roles for reasons other than survival
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income. You don't just, you know, I'm
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not knocking anybody who does this because I've done it, but
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you don't just flip burgers for a living.
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You know, where you're making minimum wage.
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You don't just do that. People will still teach, care
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for other people, design, manage public spaces, and build new
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tools. Because if the robots can build
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tools, we need tools for people, not robots, though, right?
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And I think it was Gary Vee that said this, but he said that it
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was kind of funny because the caring part is really essential
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for everybody. If you don't have a friend, you
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don't have somebody to walk with.
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Start a business where you walk with people.
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I think that's an important fact.
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Like somebody that's getting older who doesn't have as many
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friends anymore because some of their friends passed away.
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You make a business for that. You have to care for people.
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You have to teach people. You have to teach people how to
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be productive members of society and you have to.
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You can't have a robot doing that.
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It doesn't make any sense. Many roles will move from must
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do to kind of a want to do thing.
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Do I really want to go to work at that factory anymore?
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Not really. I don't like it.
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It's damp, it's hot. It's also a lot of work.
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It hurts my body over time. And that question is raised
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about training for creativity, care, and also how to govern
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where human judgement still matters and all of those things.
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And the plan asks you to prepare for a portfolio of roles over
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lifetime rather than just go from the bottom sweeping floors
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at the company all the way up that corporate ladder, grab that
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brass ring and become the CEO. That's not going to happen
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anymore, according to Elon Musk. So one more term.
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So we all stay aligned here. The national debt is the total
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memory or the total money that the government owes to
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investors, agencies in the public.
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And when interest rates are high, interest payments take a
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larger share of that budget. If AI driven productivity let's
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rates fall and tax bases grow with real output, the budget
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math softens up a little bit. That limits the trade-offs
14:19
between services, defense and investment.
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It does not solve choices on its own, but it gives leaders more
14:24
room to move around. So I've been digging into our
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stats here at the show, and we got some really good news
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It helps out the show tremendously.
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So thank you for that. Now let's bring Optimus back
15:40
into the frame here, because it is the clearest symbol of the
15:43
labor shift. If a human sized robot can stack
15:46
pellets, move parts, clean floors, and handle delicate
15:49
assembly with safe force, control companies will rewrite
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process maps. It's going to take a while
15:55
though. Companies aren't going to just
15:56
jump in here. And that'll lower service and
15:59
manufacturing costs. And it changes with bottlenecks.
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And you would see businesses optimized for uptime, data
16:06
quality, and energy contracts as much as they do for headcount.
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OK, so keep going with me here. There's a hard problem inside
16:13
this. Good news, though.
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If the adoption curve is uneven, some jobs will just go away
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before new roles arrive for those people.
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That makes inequality management an early decision for leaders,
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not a late one. That makes inequality management
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an early decision for leaders, not a late one.
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Remember that it argues for experiments with income, floors,
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worker equity, and portable benefits that travel with you.
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That opens policy work at the city and state level that can
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scale if it proves out. So adoption speed shapes
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fairness long before abundance reaches everyone.
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This isn't going to happen all at once.
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They're not going to drop 1,000,000 optimist robots and
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then they took over everybody's jobs and everybody gets rich.
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It's not going to happen like that.
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It's going to happen in chunks and the tech sector wiped out
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almost. The tech sector is a whole.
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Probably half of the developers that I know have lost their
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jobs. And I know a lot of developers,
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they've all lost their jobs because of this, because of AI
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and robots are going to be the same way.
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They're going to do the same tasks that people can do.
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And some of these people you got to start now to plan for the
17:29
future. If you think a robot could do
17:31
your job, and if you don't think a robot can do your job because
17:35
you have a certain skill set, well, think again.
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I just got to say that. Think again.
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There's a possibility they'll just wipe you out.
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And not doom and gloom here, but learn something new if you can
17:49
start a new trajectory, if you think a robot could do even part
17:52
of your job, because if you can do part of your job, eventually
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it'll be able to do your whole job and then you're done.
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So here's how I would translate the three-year claim into things
18:04
you can see. You would see inventories
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turning faster because robots restock overnight.
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People do night stocking too. But people don't build things
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overnight all the time. 24 shifts, 24/7, they don't do
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that. When a a robot is done with
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their shift, they go recharge. Another robot comes and takes
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their place and continues where they left off.
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You going to see shipping windows compressed because
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automated hubs waste less time in handoffs.
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You would see customer service queues shorten as AI handles
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triage and frees people for edge cases.
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So the really important stuff goes the people, and we've all
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seen it. When you call customer support,
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you have to go through that list of things, you know, if, if this
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press 1, if that press 2, we've all seen it.
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It's already happening, but it'll be more conversational in
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the future. And so that'll push companies
19:03
into price wars in an improved service quality where price
19:08
floors exist. So hopefully that helps your
19:12
budget a little bit. I'm not sure if that's going to
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happen. So also want to give you a
19:17
simple checker for this forecasts.
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Within three years, you should see unit cost fall in logistics,
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retail, basic services, and some manufacturing, while price
19:27
indexes cool down a little bit. And then 10 years from now, you
19:31
should see robot density climb beyond factories into
19:33
warehouses, hospitals, and commercial areas.
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Within 20 years, you should see mainstream programs that route
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abundance into income floors or service guarantees.
19:43
A set of mile markers lets you track progress without jargon.
19:48
So what do we know right now? We know Elon stitches all of
19:52
this to a single through line. AI writes the code, schedules
19:55
workflows, and guides robots that move parts and care for
19:58
spaces. The combined system shorten
20:01
cycle times and lowers cost, which reshapes budgets and
20:04
homes. And in the military and in
20:08
Congress, also demands bigger, cleaner power systems and
20:12
smarter grids. That opens choices on nuclear,
20:15
renewables and transmission that cannot wait.
20:19
So the forecast works only if reliable power shows up at
20:24
scale. And if they can produce a
20:26
billion optimist robots, it's going to be it's going to be a
20:30
hard path. You know, Musk has claimed that
20:34
AI robots can make supply outpace inflation within about
20:38
three years. He thinks that he can build a
20:41
robot within three years that will replace most people.
20:46
And I want you to think about that for a moment.
20:49
He thinks a robot can replace you.
20:52
Is this a person that's doing this for their own good?
20:55
Or is he doing this for your good?
20:57
Or is he doing it because he knows that if he sells a billion
21:01
robots, he's going to have more money, more power, and just like
21:07
he does with Starlink sometimes. And I have to be the devil's
21:10
advocate here because I've been covering Elon Musk for six years
21:13
now, and I know how this guy works.
21:15
I'm an expert at this guy. He can turn off Starlink
21:18
wherever he wants to. He did it for Russia and
21:23
Ukraine. He did it during a time that
21:26
Russia was attacking Ukraine. The system went down, said he
21:30
didn't do it, but all sources point to Elon and his company
21:36
for shutting that down. Can't just shut it down like
21:39
like no, like it just shuts down.
21:41
No, it doesn't happen like that. So those things happen.
21:45
Elon has complete control over the robot army here that does
21:49
all the work. And if he has complete control
21:52
over that, he has those government contracts.
21:54
Government contracts make the most money.
21:57
And he's going to be working on other AI type contracts with
22:02
Grok and XAI. So that AI is going to be in his
22:05
cars, in his robots, in your homes all the time.
22:11
And if he wants to, if you forget to pay your subscription,
22:13
that robot walks out the door. You never get it back.
22:17
Now for companies, if a robot can replace 2 people and it's
22:22
$20,000, that is a pretty good trade off.
22:28
If you can justify sending somebody home because you don't
22:34
want to pay them, that's something that is a moral
22:39
dilemma that's going to be happening when robots start
22:44
hitting the marketplace. Do you want to send somebody
22:47
home? They don't have a paycheck.
22:49
They can't pay for the rent, They can't pay for their child's
22:52
food because you want more profits.
22:57
You got to take care of yourself and your company.
23:01
Totally understandable, but you're also putting this person
23:06
in jeopardy because even though they were loyal to you for three
23:11
or four years, you find they're easily replaceable by a robot.
23:16
Is that the life that we want to be part of?
23:20
That's another thing. Will there be a revolt?
23:23
Let me know in the comments of your podcast platform what you
23:26
think about all this, because it's a wild thing.
23:30
All right, thanks so much for listening.
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