Latest / Panic Drop Podcast / Historically the Worst Month Just Started. Here Is My Plan

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Historically the Worst Month Just Started. Here Is My Plan · Panic Drop Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for joining.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: Arvin Mafliger,
• 0:09
  SPEAKER_01: if I say that correctly.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, thanks for joining.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_01: Before we start,
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_01: because we're gonna talk about the markets dropping,
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: of course,
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_01: what it means,
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: and also a little bit about Bitcoin, because it had a nice rally in August.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: But before we start, I have to mention that
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think I got hacked on X, so careful if you're following me there.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not gonna DM you, ask for money or anything, so make sure to just ignore if that happens.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: I'm still able to log in,
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: but I got a few messages that tried to change the password, and I don't even...
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: I can change my own password because there were too many attempts and the password
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_01: that I use normally isn't working.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: So that's why I think it's best just to ignore the ends if you get some from my ex account.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: We start by looking at the portfolio on eToro because it's now up 16.6% year to date.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: So August was really a strong month, up 9.2%.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: And mainly because we had a lot of winners like Bitcoin, of course, doing really well.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_01: We had ServiceNow doing really good after earnings, Microsoft, Amazon, but also Palantir.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: So a few big winners in the portfolio that had really nice swings.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: NVIDIA also released strong earnings.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: Biggest allocation now is Bitcoin still.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: Then for stocks, I like to have NVIDIA as my biggest allocation.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: It's still the leader within the AI space.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: Meta is a stock that I've been accumulating a lot lately, especially below $600.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: For me personally, it's a steal.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Palo Alto is a stock that will release earnings tonight.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_01: So I figure after a big rise it had
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: during the year,
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: it might just have a pullback because it looks so overbought.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: We can look at the chart later on.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: So ServiceNow had a nice pump.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: This was negative for a long time.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: So now it's up 31%, which is nice.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: Amazon is a stock I've been buying during the year.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_01: And then another cybersecurity stock, Fortinet.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_01: Google is a stock that I am also willing to accumulate as it's dropping down.
• 3:24
  SPEAKER_01: These are like my biggest holdings in my portfolio and a lot of them had nice gains
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_01: in August and that's why the portfolio is very green for year to date already.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: So outperforming the stock market.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm up 16.6.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: I think the stock market is up to 11 or 12% this year.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: We can have a look.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: So 12 months now, we're
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: up around 11.3%, 11.3%.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: So not bad for our performance year to date.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_01: And I hope everyone was patient enough to buy the dips and accept
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: that things were red for a while, but now finally we are seeing some outperformers.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: Let's look at the stock market, of course.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: So we have the S&P 500.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: We are seeing some kind of drop.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: If we zoom in, it's making a low here.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: So taking out this low means we are now in a confirmed daily downtrend.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: This happens during the September timeframe.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: So we know September seasonality is a thing and usually September is leaning more bearish.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: That's also what I'm anticipating that we could see A bearish month of September and
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: the reason why I will be buying in September if we get a drug, of course.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_01: Now there is There's one quant that I found interesting.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: So this quant explains the results measured once you buy in September showed
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_01: that one year later you won't see a bear market.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: So this is very bullish measured from the September in the midterm election year,
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: which we are in right now.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: And we had All these years here going from 1950 where the market had
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_01: a
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_01: bullish year starting from September with no bear market.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: So any dip that we see for me is buyable.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this makes me bullish for another year actually to continue to buy the dips.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: Now that doesn't mean that we can have corrections along the way.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: This right now is around
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: 2.5%, which is not a lot.
• 6:33
  SPEAKER_01: But a correction can go up to 5% to 10%.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think it will be much lower, but don't be surprised if we eventually get a bigger drop.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: So 10% brings us here at these previous highs from the beginning of the year.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there will be a big drop, of course.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not saying it is going to happen,
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_01: but it would be even normal within the The pattern of the bull market.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: Corrections happen and I try to take advantage when they do with cash that I have.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_01: So every month I try to add more funds to the portfolio so I can keep adding.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: And the trades that I have will go in and out,
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: but the investments that I have for the portfolio,
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really sell them unless they go parabolic.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_01: So that's really my strategy here for the market.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_01: I've also been buying a lot of the NASDAQ ETF, which is still lagging.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: The S&P 500 didn't make new highs here and it's down 5.6%.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think there will be a leadership by the NASDAQ in the near future,
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: possibly after we finish this correction going into the September,
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: October, November timeframe.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: That's usually where we see a bottom formation in that timeframe.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: There's also the timeframe of the election for the midterms.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: When all uncertainty goes away, then the markets can rip higher again.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: So in that timeframe, I will be watching the markets to buy my favorite stocks.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_01: So basically from here to here.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_01: It's where you would like to start buying most of your stocks.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah,
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_01: I am buying the dip just because I am also anticipating that after a drop,
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_01: It will eventually go higher.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: It is the most bullish period,
• 9:12
  SPEAKER_01: basically, especially from the October-November timeframe going to April.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: That's another quant that is very bullish,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_01: showing that in a midterm year,
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_01: that's basically The most bullish phase going from October to April or
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_01: the election day from the midterm to the April in 2027 should be
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_01: the most bullish phase of the entire market cycle.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_01: So that's why I'm willing to buy when the markets drop.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not sure if you guys have questions, you can always let me know.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: Adam, Nish, thanks
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: for joining.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: Let's look at some Bitcoin.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna take it here.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: So, nice move here that we had on Bitcoin in the month of August.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_01: I think I wrote a blog.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_01: Where I basically explained my game plan, but I will repeat it here again.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: Currently this move is still below the high we saw here.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: So whenever Bitcoin can reclaim this high, that's basically confirmation of a change in trend.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_01: That's where I would Start to be more convinced that the bottom is in.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_01: The reason why it's looking good Then I have to go on the monthly.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_01: We had a monthly close above the 10 month moving average.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: And this is a bullish sign.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_01: Whenever Bitcoin closes above the monthly,
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_01: it's usually near the end or basically the end of the bull market,
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_01: the end of the bear market and the start of the bull market.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_01: But that doesn't mean There won't be a sort of low, higher low formed.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_01: So something like this seems very possible where it's gonna retest even in the low 60s, but not
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_01: Taking out the low.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_01: So that's still possible where it's just testing the range, but not taking out the low.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: And we should just accept that and be mentally prepared for that.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: So how I prepare for the next bull market is basically to buy at the lower range.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_01: So for me, even the 80s is lower range.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_01: I don't care if I buy at 80s and then it drops.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_01: At this stage of the four-year cycle,
• 12:26
  SPEAKER_01: I basically want to accumulate during the upper range and during the lower range.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: So if we see this on the four-year cycle view, The bear market takes around one year.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: So once we are near the end,
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_01: I want to start accumulating and making sure that I'm well positioned
• 12:55
  SPEAKER_01: for whenever there is a bull market that starts again.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: We are very close.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: We are basically near the end,
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_01: but it's still unconfirmed that Bitcoin has bottomed and will start the bull run.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_01: Eventually we will only know in hindsight,
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: but I said the close above the 10 month moving average is already a bullish sign
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: and that's something we are having.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_01: Secondly, if we can take out the high here at 83,000, that's also a very bullish sign.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: And maybe thirdly
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: on the weekly chart,
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'll have to add the 50-week
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_01: moving average.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: Here we tested the 50 week moving average.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: So this is also a level we want to see taken out.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: So closing above the 50 week moving average would be bullish because in the past,
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_01: It has been tested several times and also when we got above it,
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: it was basically confirmed that the bull market could resume.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: So that's another indicator that I'm watching to really confirm my thesis that
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_01: the bull market has started.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: Now, that doesn't mean that I'm not gonna buy.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_01: You can see in my portfolio I'm around 9% Bitcoin which was actually 13% invested already.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: So usually I go up to 20% so I still have enough to increase that allocation.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_01: But I want to do it with a little bit more confirmation.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_01: So let's say if Bitcoin drops here Into the 70s, then I would be slowly accumulate more.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_01: And as time goes by, I will buy more as well.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: If it breaks the 50, then I could also add to the allocation.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_01: And if we get another low, for example, then I would also add to that allocation.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so these are like a few ways that I would increase my allocation into Bitcoin.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: And what I also did was add a little bit altcoins because usually what we see
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_01: after such a rise in Bitcoin is a flow of money into some of these strong altcoins,
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: which we track every week, by the way.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_01: And let's say one of the strongest out there is Hype.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: Bitcoin is actually making new highs already while Bitcoin is still trading
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: the lower range here.
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_01: I added to my portfolio.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_01: Now you should know for altcoins, I prefer to have stop losses.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not just gonna hold this when key levels break.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna watch them closely and make sure that I don't back hold this all the way down.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's for altcoins.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: Another one that I And this was mentioned in the chat on Substack.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: So Uni added recently and it had a nice rally already as well.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_01: This is a coin that I'm holding on the, I think the monthly chart.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: Where there was a big flush down and then this green candle was below
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_01: the swing low here and close above the swing low so that's a bullish sign for me
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_01: and
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: my stop loss would be here at $2.30 below this candle so it has a lot of room
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: to go down but when I If I have this position stopped out,
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_01: it won't be too much of my portfolio, like maximum 1% of my portfolio.
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_01: But if this coin goes up all the way back to let's say 14,
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: I can easily gain 2-3% in my portfolio on this trade.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_01: High upside and low downside.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: Those are the trades that I like the most.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: And let's have a look at the semiconductors.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_01: So semiconductors are still struggling to get above the 50
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_01: moving average here.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_01: So it's also starting to slow down.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: So bearish momentum for semiconductors.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: Personally, I think they are fine.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_01: The AI narrative is still strong.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: They just had a big run-up.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_01: So what I'm planning to do is also accumulate semiconductors during this down phase.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: So that will be the SMH, that could be NVIDIA, that could be
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_01: Broadcom, which is also releasing earnings tomorrow.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: So that's gonna be a big market mover tomorrow.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, because I wanna prepare for the next leg higher.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: For me personally,
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: it seems like this story hasn't ended yet and there is still so much upside to come
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_01: from these AI trades.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_00: One I'm in right now, It's Iron.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm looking for
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_01: a big move, parabolic move on iron, but this is a trade.
• 19:35
  SPEAKER_01: So when it's gonna hit this stop loss at 28,
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_01: then I'm out and I'm on to the next one,
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_01: risking 1% of my portfolio,
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: but potentially having a nice gain to the upside if it's in the right direction.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_01: So Iron is on my watch list and no,
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_01: also in my portfolio right now I am in this trade because I'm convinced
• 20:09
  SPEAKER_01: that this could be a solid move to the upside.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_01: So yeah, basically watching
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: the markets.
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_00: Oil of course moving up.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: Is this the one moving up?
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure if I can find the right... Yeah, here.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_01: And when oil goes up, we have the S&P struggling again.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: This brings on the narrative on inflation back on the table.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_01: And it is rising, so it's not a good sign.
• 20:55
  SPEAKER_01: The big question remains, like, what is the Fed going to do?
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_01: Are they gonna hike?
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_01: Are they gonna stay stable?
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_01: Trump is asking for a cut.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_01: It's something we have to watch closely and is impossible to predict.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think it is 16 September that there is a Fed meeting where they're gonna decide
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: whether to cut or hike.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: Or stay stable.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: So this is uncertainty that could flow into the markets until then.
• 21:31
  SPEAKER_01: So hence why September could be a more volatile month.
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_01: And why I'm preparing to buy the dip during this month at least.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a big narrative.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_01: We talked about semiconductors.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_01: We talked about crypto.
• 21:52
  SPEAKER_01: And then lastly, gold is also pulling back.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: So you can see
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: it had a nice move, a nice run, and now it's giving up all those gains.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_01: It is trading above the 50 daily moving average.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a good sign.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_01: On the long-term timeframe, I am accumulating
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: Gold, so it had a nice parabolic move.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: After such a move, we know these things don't last for long, and we have to basically
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: Wait and recover from such a parabolic rise.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: So in my opinion, what's going to happen is consolidation.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: A small chance that we are bottomed.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: I did add a little bit cold back to the portfolio.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_01: But I'm mentally prepared to add more if it drops even lower.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: But I will be adding more because there is this eight year cycle in gold
• 23:12
  SPEAKER_01: where you go up, there is a midpoint where it drops and then it goes up again.
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_01: So that's what I am preparing myself for, for gold.
• 23:25
  SPEAKER_01: And we can never catch the bottom,
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_01: but the plan is always to accumulate during the down days when things look bearish.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_01: And eventually the trend will turn and move up again.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_01: So that's also my plan for gold.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_01: I also added a little bit of silver in my portfolio because silver is
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_01: a little bit higher beta to gold.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_01: When gold moves, silver is going to move higher.
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_01: It's not a big position in my portfolio right now,
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: but when we get a deeper drop,
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_01: I will increase it even more and it will be for many,
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_01: many weeks, targeting basically the year 2028 even.
• 24:22
  SPEAKER_01: So these are for many months that I will keep these positions.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_01: So that's how I see the markets right now.
• 24:34
  SPEAKER_01: If you have questions, you can always reach out.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_01: Remember to watch out for my X account.
• 24:43
  SPEAKER_01: I'll repeat it again.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's hacked.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm not able to change my password.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: So something is going on.
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_01: So if you get DMs, don't respond.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: You can contact me through Substack or LinkedIn or Instagram even.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: So be careful on X.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: And yeah, you can always follow me on Substack.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_01: We have been growing nicely over the last couple of weeks because I'm also posting more on X.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_01: So guys, that's it for today.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_01: If you don't have questions, I'm going to leave it at that.
• 25:25
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for joining and we'll see each other next time.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: Bye.