Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Sunday Sadness | MLB & WNBA | 8/30/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Sunday Sadness | MLB & WNBA | 8/30/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest. Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad. But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure. Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: not now.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on Let me pull you out That
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: fella fights hard But he don't get the crown Hold on,
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you with Toadstool
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: Sports for Sunday, August 30th. We went 2-0-1 on the
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: show yesterday, or 2-1 on the show, depending on how
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: you played it. The Seattle Toronto under Got a little
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: bit dicey, but it did hit. Kate Anderson was good
• 1:46
  Speaker 4: early in the game. Toronto was winning 3-0 early, but
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: it stayed 3-0 for a long time. And then I
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: believe Seattle, or no, it was 3-0 Seattle. I mean, yeah,
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: because Kate Anderson was pitching well. And then it was 3-2.
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: Then it wound up being Toronto taking the lead 4-3.
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: A little bit dicey, but the one good thing is
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: Toronto has one of the better closers in baseball with Farland.
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: So he was able to get the save, get it
• 2:14
  Speaker 4: done at the end. So it landed seven. We got
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: that win. Miami, Washington, the first five, I did find
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: a four on that at minus 125. So like I said,
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: I was looking for the minus four. In the first five,
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: I didn't really want to deal with Washington's bullpen, and
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: that wound up being correct because Washington's bullpen blew a
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: 4-0 lead. Cade Cavalli had, like, a no-hitter in the
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: game into, I think, the sixth inning or something. So
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: it was 4-0 at the end of five, which pushed
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: on that four. If you had the 3.5, it would
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: have been a loser, though, and full game was going
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: to be a loser either way. It wound up being
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: a 4-4 tie, so then you knew one of the
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: teams was going to have to win. So it wound
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: up being a 5-4 Washington win. but hopefully people got
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: a push on that. If you want me to count
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: it as a loss in my record, I will. Right
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: now I have it as a push, but whatever. And
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: then we did win with the first college football game
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: that I gave out with Eastern Michigan. I was right
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: about numerous college football games, I think, but Eastern Michigan,
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: it should have been easier than it was, to be honest, man.
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: I mean, they were winning 21-3 close to halftime, then
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: they had a sack fumble sixth, So it was 21-10 then.
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: They basically let Sacramento State hang around because of a
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: ridiculous blunder and defensive touchdown. If you look at the
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: stats in the first half, Eastern Michigan dominated all the
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: stats in the first half. And the fact that Sacramento
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: State had a touchdown in there, even though they had
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: 30 yards of offense and they were negative 20 rushing
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: yards at that point, obviously that's ridiculous. They should not
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: have had a touchdown at any point. during that stretch,
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: and then Eastern Michigan was able to push the lead
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: later in the game, it was 28-10, and I'm like, alright,
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: we're gonna still cover this pretty easily, and then all
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: of a sudden, they almost had a collapse late in
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: the game, they let Sacramento State actually go on a
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: touchdown drive, like, you gotta be kidding me, man, and
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: then Eastern Michigan actually had a three and out, had
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: to punt it over again. but luckily, uh, they were
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: able to get an interception and stop all the Sacramento
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: state's momentum. And then that was, that was pretty much it.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: So I'm happy about that. Um, let's get into today, man.
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: You're not, you're not going to like my place today.
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: I'll tell you that right now. And I have a
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: couple that were close to making the cut for me
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: that won't, but I'm kind of factoring in like everything
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: that I do situation matchup market read. Um, let's do it. Um,
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: So it's all baseball and WNBA today. I don't have
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: any WNBA plays today, though. Miami and Washington is the
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: first game up, which is on Peacock at 12-15 Eastern.
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: Washington is, I believe, on the verge of a sweep
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: here after Miami had won all six games against Washington
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: earlier this year, including recently. Washington now is looking for
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: a sweep here. Miami might be in the more desperate
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: mood here, desperate mode, because they're trying to make the
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: playoffs still if they think they can really do that,
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: trying to avoid the sweep. So situationally, that has me
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: kind of leaning towards Miami in this game, but I
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: don't really love their pitching setup in this one. So
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: this is definitely going to be a pass for me.
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: As far as the bullpens, Miami does have the better bullpen.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: They used three guys out of the bullpen yesterday, Washington four,
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: Miami's ranked sixth in bullpen. This is based on whip.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: I don't think they're quite that good. Washington 25th, so
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: there is the edge there for Miami. Washington's number three offensively.
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: Miami tied in 11th with the Braves. So Washington does
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: have a little bit of an offensive edge here. Jansen Junk, though,
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: looks like he's going to be getting the start for Miami,
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: although I think what I would say is if you're
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: going to play this game, I might pick Alvarez must
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: start for Washington, but don't pick a starter for Miami
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: because I don't know if Junk is actually going to
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: start or if he's going to come in after an
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: opener or if he might be an opener. We don't
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: really know exactly what they're doing here. Miami has a 4.21,
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: or Junk has a 4.21 ERA, 1.3 whip, kind of
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: mediocre numbers here, but 5.12 road ERA, so he's definitely
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: bad on the road. He pitched only one inning last
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: time out, so that's why I'm saying I don't know
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: exactly how they're going to use him here. Although he's, yeah,
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: actually he's not on a full starter's rest here. He
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: pitched on Wednesday. He threw an inning, so I don't know.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: But he didn't really throw a full starter's workload in
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: the previous outing either, so I honestly have no idea
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: what his usage is going to look like in this one.
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: But he hasn't given up that many runs recently, although
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: he's just not that good of a pitcher. His hit
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: rate's high. His walk rate is actually fine. Strikeout rate
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: is really low, though. So he doesn't strike guys out.
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: Strikeout per nine and strikeout walk ratio are both not
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: really that good. But still doesn't really walk that many guys.
• 7:06
  Speaker 4: And his numbers against Washington are actually pretty good. And
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: 41 career bats, 244 average, 7-1 OPS, 7-1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: So he has an okay matchup here, but he's not
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: good on the road. And he's not the more talented
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: of the two pitchers, which is, Andrew Alvarez here for Washington.
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: He's the guy that definitely has the higher ceiling here.
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: He's got a 3.72 ERA, although his 1.35 whip is
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: not really very good. He's worse at home, 4.4 home ERA,
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: so both pitchers are in the negative home road split here.
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: Alvarez has had too many walks recently. Washington's lost a
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: lot of his recent starts, but he hasn't really allowed
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: that many runs, though, so a lot of these games,
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: their offense hasn't really backed him very well, but His
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: walk number is a little bit of a concern here.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: He's got a decent hit rate. His walk rate, a
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: bit iffy, like I said. His strikeout rate is okay.
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: So his strikeout walk ratio is not very good because
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: he's a little bit wild, although his strikeout rate is okay.
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: He is good against Miami, though. They have 25 at-bats
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: against him, a 120 average and 360 OPS, 6-0 strikeout
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. The only extra base hit is a home
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: run from Ruiz. So, like, how do we play this game, right?
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: Because when I first looked at this, I was thinking
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: maybe an over because both pitchers, they're in the bad
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: home road split here. They're not exactly great. The money
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: is coming in that way, 55% of tickets, 90% of
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. The total is nine. So,
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: odds and figures would put up kind of a high
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: total on this. I wouldn't, I mean, I might even
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: disagree with that, to be honest. I think if you
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: go over, you should do a full game, though, to
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: take advantage of Washington's bullpen. You could go under first five,
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: possibly in this one, though, given that these pitchers' matchups
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: actually look okay, but I don't want to do any
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: of it, man. And then there's a slight amount of
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: money on Washington. It looks like 55% of tickets on Miami,
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: 53% of the cash on Washington. I mean, Miami would
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: be the situational play here, like I said, but I
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: think Alvarez is the better pitcher, so... If you're going
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: to play Washington, I would say do it in the
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: first five, though, because their bullpen might just blow the
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: whole thing. So you could take Washington. They're probably going
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: to be a favorite in the first five, but it's
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: probably not going to be that heavy of a favorite.
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: I don't really have a whole lot else on this game.
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't have a really strong opinion on
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: this game at all. All right, Boston, New York. They
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: split the doubleheader yesterday with the Red Sox looking pretty
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: good in game one with Jake Bennett delivering a really
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: good start. in Game 1, and then the Red Sox
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: pouring it on late. Red Sox looked like they had
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: a chance to maybe come back in Game 2, and
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: then that did not wind up being the case. The
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: Red Sox did the Brian Baio experiment in Game 2
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: where they put an opener in front of them, and
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: he gave up some runs. I mean, he settled down.
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: After he gave up the runs, he settled down. He
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: wasn't too bad after that, but the Red Sox, I mean,
• 10:04
  Speaker 4: they almost got back in the game late and then
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: in the ninth or the eighth inning. I mean the,
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know what happened with the Red Sox fielding.
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: Like they basically just, the fundamentals were awful. Like it
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: was like our Alex Cora was back as their manager again.
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know what the hell that eighth inning was.
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: You have like a pop fly and Nick Sogard doesn't
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: call for it. So nobody catches it. And that's how
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: the inning starts. Then it was like, I don't know.
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: There were multiple like bloop singles, just bad fielding all
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: over the place. There was a ground ball in the
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: infield where Gamboa, who I think was a pitcher at
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: that point, was a, no, Gamboa opened. It was, I
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: don't want to besmirch his name. He was fine. It
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: was the guy the Red Sox are not going to
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: have on their roster anymore today. I forget. The guy
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: that pitched in the ninth inning yesterday. he didn't even
• 10:51
  Speaker 4: cover first base. Just absolutely ridiculous. So there was an
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: infield hit, I guess, there. There was also an error
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: by Abreu in the outfield as well. I mean, it's
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: just unbelievable. Unbelievable what they did in the eighth inning.
• 11:06
  Speaker 4: Just totally unraveled. It could have been a scoreless inning, really.
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: And prior to that, the Red Sox stranded a runner
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: on third. After having a runner on third with one
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: out in the top of the eighth, Red Sox should
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: have scored two runs in that inning because it was a,
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: one-out RBI triple from Contreras, and then they never scored him.
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: So I'm pissed. So the Red Sox and Yankees are
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: playing today, of course. They're both going to show up
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: for this game. It's on ESPN Unlimited. On the surface,
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: it looks like the Red Sox do have the better
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: starting pitcher in this one. I would avoid the bullpens
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: in this game, though, because tons of bullpen usage yesterday.
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: Burgos was the guy that was in the ninth inning there. Although,
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean, People are saying we'll give them
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: a break, but they're not covering first base thing. I mean,
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: not really acceptable, I would say. So that was some bullshit.
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: But the Red Sox used six relief pitchers yesterday. Yankees
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: used six as well. Normally these are good bullpens. They're
• 12:03
  Speaker 4: the number one and number two bullpens, Red Sox-Yankees. But
• 12:08
  Speaker 4: so much usage yesterday. I would have a tendency to
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: want to avoid them here. Red Sox number nine in offense.
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: Yankees number 18, believe it or not. tied with, uh,
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: Arizona and Philly. So, and that's based on OPS. So
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox, I guess, technically have an offensive edge
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: here on the surface. It looks like they should have
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: the pitching edge here with Ronnie or Suarez getting the
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: start here. 3.35 ERA, 1.2 whip. He hasn't been as
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: good recently though, man is he is good on the
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: road though. 2.67 road ERA. Um, he walked four guys
• 12:42
  Speaker 4: in his last outing though, although the Red Sox have
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: been winning his recent outings though. Um, He was injured
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: for a while, but since he came back from injury,
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox have won five of his six starts,
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: and the one that he didn't, he gave up one
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: run in it, and the bullpen looks like they blew it,
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: which is usually not what the Red Sox do. However,
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: he's not going too deep into his outings here, and
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: he's not striking guys out. And part of it, I think,
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: is because they wanted to ease him back from his injury,
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: so they've ramped up his pitch count more recently, but
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: with the bullpen being kind of shot here, they're going
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: to need him to go deeper into the game than
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: what he has been recently, probably. So I don't know
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: if he's going to be able to or not here.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: His numbers against the Yankees are pretty good, though, in
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: 110 at bats, 236 average, 636 OPS, 26 to 4
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. So he might be able to pitch
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: well enough here. He's going up against Will Warren on
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: the other side, who is Not the Yankees' best pitcher. 4.39 ERA, 1.42 whip.
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: That's got to be the worst whip that they have
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: in their starting rotation. I mean, that is not good.
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: He's basically the same home and away. His numbers are
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: not really, his splits aren't extreme in any way. He's
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: had too many walks, basically, for the most part. I mean,
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: he's pitching mediocre, I would say, recently. He's got a
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: hit rate that's too high as well, actually. His walk
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: rate isn't really that great. His strikeout rate is decent.
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: He does have decent strikeout stuff, but his strikeout per
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: nine is okay. His strikeout walk ratio isn't great because
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: he puts a lot of guys on base. Against the
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: Red Sox, he does have good numbers, though, and 46
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: at bats, 196 average, 690 OPS, though, so they have
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: hit him for a little bit of power here. Six
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: to four strikeout walk ratio. And as far as Suarez,
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: I forgot to bring up his.
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: Other stats here. He's got a decent strikeout walk ratio.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really walk that many guys. And let me see.
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: Strikeout per nine is actually pretty good. So Suarez, yeah,
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: his hit rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, they're all pretty decent, really,
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: across the board. So what do we do with this game?
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, the money's coming in against the Red Sox,
• 14:55
  Speaker 4: which I don't like to see. They have 79% of tickets,
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: 77% of the cash on them. They're a slight favorite here,
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: whereas Red Sox, I think, have been an underdog in
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: the rest of the games in the series. Oddsmakers are
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: telling you this is the best pitching matchup the Red
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: Sox have had in the series, though. I mean, I
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: would have a tendency to slightly lean towards the Red
• 15:18
  Speaker 4: Sox in this one. Maybe first five, just because you
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: don't really know what the bullpens are going to do.
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: And maybe you isolate. Like, Suarez should be better than
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: Warren in the first five, but it's certainly not guaranteed.
• 15:30
  Speaker 4: And I would lean under again in this one, and
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: the money is coming in on the under. The only
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: reason the game went over last night, like every game
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: in the series has gone under except the one last night,
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: and that one was going to go under until that
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: just fielding unraveling for the Red Sox in the eighth
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: inning with five runs being scored because of that. If
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: that didn't happen, that game was going under as well.
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: 57% of tickets on the over, 51% of the cash
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: on the under. The total's at eight here. I would
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: say first five under, though, because the bullpen's, might not
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: be able to hold up with all the usage, but
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: the starters both have decent matchup numbers here. So I
• 16:06
  Speaker 4: think those are the opinions that I would have in
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: this game. I mean, you could basically take what happened
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: last night, which people are going to remember and kind
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: of fade that sentiment. If you think it's going to
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: zigzag a little bit, which would mean a lean towards
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox and towards the under, but yeah, I
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: do not want to touch the game at all. And
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't have a good feeling about it
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: as a Red Sox fan. I really do not have
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: a good feeling about that game. But the way that
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: I handicap it in an unbiased way. Next game up,
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: you guys are going to hate this play. We're going
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: to take the Colorado Rockies in the first five here.
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: Garrett's really going to hate this. You can find it
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: at Plus Money here, and I would say I would
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: say put a little bit of this on the money
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: line as well, which is like plus 165 or something
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: in case they're winning at the end of five. I
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: would put like 10% on the money line part of
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: it here. We have to avoid Colorado's bullpen, obviously, because
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: they're terrible, and Atlanta's is very good. But we're going
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: to jump in front of Atlanta, at least in the
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: first five, as far as the fact they've won six
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: games in a row here. But they're on the verge
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: of a sweep here, so I'm going to be looking
• 17:17
  Speaker 4: to fade them out. in a situational fashion here, although
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: Atlanta only plays San Francisco next, which isn't really that
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: big of a deal, but Colorado might finally show up
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: for game here, try to avoid the sweep. Atlanta might
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: like overlook them here. That's kind of where I start
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: with this handicap here. Atlanta used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: Colorado used five or six, excuse me. So obviously we're
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: going to avoid the bullpen. Atlanta, number four in a
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: bullpen here. You can make the argument there. Well, I
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: don't know. I think they are number four. I think
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: that's where they are. Maybe you can make the argument
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: they're number three. Colorado is 27th, really bad bullpen. Atlanta,
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: number 11 offensively, tied with Miami. Colorado is number four,
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: so Colorado does have a pretty good offense, at least.
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: We're going to back Mason Adams here, man. I don't
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: know much about him. He's making his second start ever.
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: He's got a 2.25 ERA right now, but a 1.5 whip.
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: I know that's not great, but his first start was,
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: I think, Fairly impressive against Washington. Washington's a pretty good offense.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: Adams went on the road, made his major league debut,
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: went four innings, allowed one run on three hits, five strikeouts.
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: Those are all good numbers. The only problem was he
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: walked three guys. But maybe he was nervous. Maybe the
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: nerves will kind of subside now that he has a
• 18:35
  Speaker 4: game under his belt and he's going to pitch again here.
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: But if you have a young guy that has talent,
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: which I think maybe he does, and they go up
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: against an offense that hasn't seen them before, usually the
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: edge goes to the pitcher there, and that's the case here.
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: So he has the unfamiliarity here. So I actually like
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: Adams in this game to pitch at least decently enough
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: to keep this close against Tyler Molle, even though Molle
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: has been good since the Rays traded for him. I
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: still don't think Molle is that good, even though, yes,
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: I know I'm fading a guy that's in good form
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: right now. He's got a 4.41 ERA, 1.32 whip, so
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: that whip isn't really that good, although a lot of
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: those numbers were with San Francisco before he got traded.
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: He is good at home, I will admit that. 2.53 ERA, 2.04
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: point of batting average, but that was mostly with San Francisco,
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: so I think you have to take that with a
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: little bit of a grain of salt, although he's made
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: four starts with the Braves, and he's been really good.
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: He's allowed two or fewer runs in all of them.
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: Two of them have come at home, and he was
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: pretty good in both of those starts, too. Now, I
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: get all that. He is pitching really well right now.
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: He has a really good strikeout walk ratio this month,
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: so I understand him fading his current form here. His
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: overall numbers, though, I mean, they're still pretty mediocre. His
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: hit rate's okay. His walk rate's okay. His strikeout rate
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: is pretty good. So I think... he's not as bad
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: as maybe he looked with the Giants, but I don't
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: think he's quite as good as how he's looked his
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: last few starts here. He does have a good strikeout
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. He's good with Atlanta, but it's not really
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: that good on the season, and that's the bigger sample
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: size here. And his strikeout per nine is fine, but
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: I think I still think the entire season matters a
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: little bit more than the last four games, even though
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: I know it's a change of scenery. I've talked about
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: how guys that get sent out into the minors, like Fott,
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: can come up and just start doing really well again.
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: But still, I think there's going to be some regression
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: here from Molly. Against Colorado, maybe it happens here, and
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: this is really the key of the handicap here. Molly
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: has terrible numbers against Colorado. They have 52 at-bats against them, a.
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: 346 average. 854 OPS, 12-4 strikeout walk ratio. And, yes,
• 20:40
  Speaker 4: I realize some of those numbers came in Coors Field
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: where he's probably going to pitch worse because he's a
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: bad pitcher on the road. I get all that. But
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: I think this is the right move to make, man.
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: And it's also about the price. I mean, Atlanta's just
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: a huge price here, minus 220-something. Colorado gets no respect
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: in the market. And I know they're a bad team,
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: but 92% of the tickets, 62% of the cash on Atlanta.
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: So the money is agreeing with me on this. I
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: say we do it, man. And the money is also
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: playing the over in this game, which, I mean, I
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: guess I could see that. I mean, if you go
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: full game on the over, if you think Molly's going
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: to give up something and then Colorado's bullpen is going
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: to get involved here, I probably wouldn't want to be
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: on an under with the eight and a half. But yeah,
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: we're going to take, although I know an under would
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: be correlated to Colorado here, but a first five play
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: is different. But anyway, I'm expecting Colorado to actually score
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: some runs this time. So we'll take Colorado in the
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: first five. plus the half run there. All right, Seattle
• 21:40
  Speaker 4: and Toronto. Seattle's trying to avoid a sweep here. Seattle's
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: got to be in desperation mode here. Toronto on the
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: verge of a sweep after coming back and winning the
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: game yesterday. Seattle has Boston next. I want to see
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: who does Toronto play next is really the question. And
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: it was, I did have it up. Hold on. I
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: should have this up right now. Let me see if
• 22:03
  Speaker 4: I can do something like this. No.
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: No.
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: I apologize. Toronto is playing, where are they at? They're
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: playing Cleveland next, so is that a look ahead? I mean,
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, Toronto might look ahead, I guess,
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: because Cleveland has a better record than Seattle right now.
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know, but Seattle, it's desperation time for them, man.
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: I mean, they're going to have to win their division
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: to get into the playoffs probably, and they got to
• 22:28
  Speaker 4: do something here. But Seattle does look like they have
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: a starting pitching matchup that is advantageous to them in
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: this game, though. So Seattle may be able to get
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: this one. And I think I would lean that way.
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: Seattle used three relief pitchers yesterday. Toronto used three as well.
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: Toronto does have the slightly better bullpen, although they used
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: their closer yesterday. They're 18th, Seattle 20th. Although Toronto's ERA
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: is significantly better, like more than a half run better.
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: So I don't think I would want to back Seattle's
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: bullpen against Toronto's. Both offenses have been pretty bad. So
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: I've been looking at some unders in the series. We
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: did win one yesterday. Toronto 27th, Seattle 29th. So these
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: are bad offenses here. Logan Gilbert getting the start for Seattle.
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: He's pretty good. 3.36 ERA, 1.02 whip. He's one of
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: their better starters. He's been good on the road. 2.49
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: road ERA. He was giving up a ton of home
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: runs at home, which makes no sense because their home
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: stadium is not home run conducive. So I don't know how...
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: He's given up that many home runs there, but he's
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: been better at home recently too, but he's been very
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: consistently good on the road this season. Seattle's winning his games,
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: by the way. They've won six of his last seven games,
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: and the one they didn't win, he's still only allowed
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: two runs in it. He's only allowed three runs or
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: fewer in all of those games. His walk number's been
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: a little bit elevated recently, but his numbers are pretty
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: good here. He's got a low hit rate. His walk
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: rate on the season isn't too bad. His strikeout rate
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: is high as well, so his strikeout walk ratio is
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: quite good, although it's a little bit lower this year
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: than it has been throughout his career. His strikeout per
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: nine is also above nine, which is pretty good. And
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: he does have... Well, his numbers are actually kind of
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: mediocre against the Blue Jays. 116 at-bats, 259 average, 769 OPS,
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: 27-9 strikeout walk ratio. So I wanted to back Gilbert here. Like,
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: I wanted to take Seattle, right, because the situation... Kind
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: of lines up for this. Seattle trying to avoid the sweep,
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: trying to make the playoffs here still. I think Gilbert
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: is more trustworthy at this point than Scherzer. So I
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: think Seattle first five is still possibly a way to
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: look here, but the matchup numbers aren't exactly in favor
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: of it. Scherzer is pitching for Toronto, Max Scherzer. I mean,
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: this guy, again, man, it looks like his career is
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: probably at the end here. He's got a 7.02 ERA, 1.54 whip,
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: really bad. He's been really bad at home. 7.59 home ERA.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: Five walks last time out, although he somehow held Kansas
• 25:00
  Speaker 4: City to two runs, but you can't go out there
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: and walk five guys, man. You just can't do it.
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: Toronto's lost four of his last five starts, so they're
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: not winning behind him. His walk number's been way too
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: high recently. He doesn't really have his strikeout stuff anymore.
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: Numbers on the season, pretty bad. Hit rate too high,
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: walk rate too high, strikeout rate low, so he just
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: doesn't really quite have it anymore, man. Strikeout walk ratio
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: is really bad. Worse than it's been in his career,
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: which is a Hall of Fame career, I know, but still.
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: His numbers are just falling completely off at this point.
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: Strikeout per nine also. You see it there, too. His
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: numbers against Seattle are pretty mediocre. 47 at-bats, 255 average,
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: 752 OPS, 14 to 5 strikeout walk ratio. But given
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: that some of those numbers were back when he was
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: pitching better, given what the setup looks like here, I
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: like Seattle in this one, but the money is completely
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: disagreeing with me. I would take Seattle first five here
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: because I think they don't really have the bullpen edge,
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: but I think they're going to be extra motivated. I
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: think Gilbert is the preference over Scherzer, but Seattle's like
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: a minus 130 favorite here. And if you take them
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: in the first five, you're probably looking at, you might
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: even have to lay a half run with them. You're
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: probably looking at at least minus 140 something, so the
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: price doesn't seem quite great for it here. especially given
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: that it might be low scoring. The game total is
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: at eight, although the money is coming in on the
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: over here. 59% of tickets are on Seattle, 82% of
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: the cash on Toronto, so the money somehow is backing
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: Toronto here. I don't really get it, but that is
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: what's happening. I mean, I guess you could also maybe
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: look towards Seattle's team total over or something like that
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: if you want to just go with Scherzer to not
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: do well and not worry about how well Gilbert's going
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: to pitch. I mean, I don't even know if that
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: totally makes sense, but total. I think I still would
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: just play Seattle in the first five, though, if I
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: was going to play that game. And I was considering it,
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: and then I saw the price, and I saw the
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers, and I'm like, ah, I don't really love it.
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: All right, Kansas City, Cleveland. You want to talk about
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: a team trying to make the playoffs, trying to avoid
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: a sweep here. Cleveland is trying to avoid a sweep
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: here at the hands of the extremely hot Kansas City Royals.
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: It's ridiculous, man. I mean, I think Cleveland, I'm pretty
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: sure they're going to win this game here today. It's
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: just a matter of price as far as wanting to
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: actually play Cleveland here. Cleveland's at 500 now. I mean,
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: they need to win to try to get this last
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: wild card spot or maybe to potentially still win their
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: division here. Cleveland's going to be extra motivated here, although
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: Kansas City, I think, will still show up to try
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: to play spoiler here. Kansas City, we know they don't
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: have a good bullpen. They used five relief pitchers yesterday.
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: Cleveland used four. Cleveland's going to have the bullpen edge here.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: They're number 16. Kansas City is still dead last, although
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: actually they're not anymore. I mean, they're tied and whipped
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: with the A's. The A's are definitely worse. So congratulations,
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: Kansas City. You're almost officially the second worst bullpen. Offensively,
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's terrible. They're 28th, and Kansas City is 15th right now,
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: so Kansas City's been hitting well recently. Pitching matchup, I
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: think you gotta say, this pitching matchup and the motivation
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: all favor Cleveland here, though, and the bullpens do as well,
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: but Seth Lugo's pitching for Kansas City. He's okay, 4.61 ERA, 1.38 whip, 5.35
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: road ERA, though, so he's not good on the road,
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: although we did back him on the road last time.
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: He pitched pretty well against a very bad Toronto lineup,
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: and in fact, Kansas City has won his last four starts,
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: so they're winning behind him right now, and he is
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: in okay form here, kind of. He's given up too
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: many runs recently, although his command numbers have been all right,
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: but he's given up too many hits here, and he's
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: been too hittable this season. His hit rate, not very
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: good at all. His walk rate is kind of okay.
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is pretty low, so his numbers really
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: aren't that great. The advanced analytics guys definitely don't like
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: him because he pitches to contact. He has a really
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: mediocre at-best strikeout walk ratio. Strikeout per nine is at
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: its lowest that it's been, which isn't great. And I
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: know I backed him last time, but I just don't
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: love how it sets up for him here. However, he
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: is actually pretty good against Cleveland, and their offense is
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: not that good. Like I said, 74 at-bats here, 21
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: to 5 strikeout walk ratio, 230 average, 643 OPS. So
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: Seth Lugo does at least have a good matchup here.
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: Even though he's not good on the road, he might
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: pitch all right here. Parker Messick though, clearly the better
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: pitcher with a much, much higher upside pitching for Cleveland.
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: One thing you have to worry about with him, though,
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: is his innings count. He's up to 155 as a
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: really young guy. So sometimes these guys fall off a
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: little bit when they've pitched more innings than they ever
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: have before. But he doesn't seem to be showing signs
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: of it yet. So I don't think I would be
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: too concerned about it yet. He's got a 2.5 ERA, 1.01 whip,
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: really good numbers here. He's slightly worse at home, 2.76
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: home ERA, but he's still really good either way. He's
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: given up two or fewer earned runs in every start
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: going all the way back through the beginning of July.
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: So yeah, he's still in really good form right now.
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: Really good command numbers here. Really good strikeout walk ratio recently.
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, pretty low walk rate,
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: reasonably high strikeout rate. Those numbers are all good. Strikeout
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: walk ratio is pretty good. Strikeout for nine, also pretty good.
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: These numbers are good across the board. I don't know
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: how this is possible, given that he's in their division,
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: but Kansas City has never faced him before. I was
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: shocked when I saw that. I was like, is ESPN
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: just not loading the data? Messick never having faced Kansas
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: City before seems almost impossible at this point, but apparently
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: that's the case. So I think he has an extra
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: advantage here then. So he has the unfamiliarity. I talk
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: about him, a young, talented pitcher. has the unfamiliarity going
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: up against the hitters. Usually the pitcher has an extra
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: advantage there. So I do think Cleveland has the advantage here.
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: I think they should win this game. But Lugo does
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: have decent matchup numbers here. The money is kind of
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: indicating on Cleveland, although they're also public. 89% of tickets,
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: 94% of the cash on them. They're about minus 180 here.
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: And that's kind of the problem. Like, how do you
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: play Cleveland here, right? Like, the total's low. It's 7.5.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: And I think the under is also a way to
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: look in this game. But I hate Kansas City's bullpen,
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: so Maybe first five under. You're going to be looking
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: at a bad number probably, like a three and a
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: half because the number is so low in this game.
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: It's seven and a half. Money is coming in towards
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: the under in this game. I still kind of prefer
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: Cleveland though as far as how to play this game.
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: They got 89% of tickets and cash now on them though,
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: so they're definitely super public. I think if you play Cleveland,
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: the way you have to play it is to get
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: the price down by making like a minus one run
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: line or maybe even having to play the minus one
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: and a half run line and I'm really not too
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: keen on that because Cleveland can't hit well, and you're
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: going to be asking them to win by multiple runs here,
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: and they might not bat in the ninth inning. I
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: can't do it, man. I think Cleveland should win. I
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: guess one way that you could play this, you could
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: play Kansas City under their team total, I guess. That
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: might be a way to play this game. If you
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: think it's going to be low scoring, and you think
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: Cleveland's going to win, Messick should have that extra advantage there.
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: Maybe he can get through this thing, and Kansas City
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: will score a few runs here, but You're going to
• 32:27
  Speaker 4: probably need him to score two runs at most in
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: this game, and you know how risky that is. So
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: I don't love the game, man. I mean, you could
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: also do it. I hate parlays, but money line parlay
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: in Cleveland with some other money line around that price
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: is also an option here. If you can find something
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: else to really parlay it with, I don't really know.
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: Dodgers and Detroit, these teams have split the series so far,
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: so I kind of imagine both teams are going to
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: show up here It's been a really low-scoring series. Each
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: team has won 2-1 in each game here. Dodgers, they
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: used four relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen's mediocre, I would say.
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: Detroit used three. I think Detroit's bullpen is a little
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: bit better. Dodgers are ranked 11th. Detroit 14th. But Detroit's
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: ERA is better. Do what you want with that. They're
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: both decent bullpens, though. Dodgers are number two offensively. Detroit
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: number 16. So the Dodgers definitely have the better offense here.
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: Dodgers also have Tyler Glasnow pitching because he's back, and
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: he is good, and he's pretty rested here because he's
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: basically been injured or injured the entire season again. He's
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: got a 3.02 ERA,. 87 whip, really good numbers here,
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: really good on the road, a 2.33 road ERA. I
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: know this is all in a really small sample size,
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: but we've seen what he's done throughout his career. We
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: know he's an ace caliber pitcher. We know this. He
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: came back from being injured after missing three months, and
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: he was pretty good against Atlanta. They lost the game.
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: He did give up three runs, but he had seven
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: strikeouts in five innings and no walks, so he clearly
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: was in command of his stuff there, so I would
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: say that's a pretty good start. He has a low
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: hit rate on the season. His walk rate's, I guess,
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: not too low, but not bad. His strikeout rate is
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: still high, so he definitely still has his strikeout stuff.
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: Good strikeout walk ratio here. Strikeout per nine, also still good,
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: so He is still good. And Detroit actually hasn't really
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: faced him much. They only have two guys who have
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: faced him, Baez and Torres. They got 23 at-bats against him,
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: but they only have a. 217 average, only one extra
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: base hit, which is a double from Baez.. 217 average,.
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: 569 OPS, 9-3 strikeout walk ratio. So yeah, Glasnow, not
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: only is he good, and it looks like he's back.
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: He's also got own familiarity against Detroit, so I think
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: he should pitch well here Frambois Valdez is pitching for
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: Detroit on the other side. He's not had a great season. 4.35 ERA,
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: but his whip is really bad at 1.41, so he's
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: definitely putting a lot of guys on base. He's been
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: very slightly better at home, not by much. He's pitching
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: pretty questionably, although recently he's not allowing that many runs,
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: so again, he's pitching like the way that his numbers
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: kind of look. He's not allowing that many runs, but
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: he's getting kind of lucky because he's walking a lot
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: of guys here, and he's giving up too many hits,
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: so He's not really pitching very well right now. His
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: hit rate's pretty high in the season. His walk rate
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: is not very good either. Those numbers are bad, dude.
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: And his strikeout rate, I think, is lower than you
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: usually get out of him. So he's having probably his
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: worst season, really. His strikeout walk ratio's not good because
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: of all that. His strikeout per nine is definitely the
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: worst that he's ever posted. There's something, I think, kind
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: of wrong with him here, man. I don't know what
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: the deal has been. The transition to Detroit has not
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: gone well. He was a much better pitcher with Houston.
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: No clue what's going on with him, man. Numbers against
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers are pretty good, though. 118 at-bats, 161 average,
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: 617 OPS, 36-13 strikeout walk ratio. That's not great, but
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: the rest of the number is pretty good. I think
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: this game looks mostly like an under, man. I mean,
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: I think that's probably what I would do if I
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: was going to play this. 7.5 is the total, so
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: it's a low total. 67% of tickets, 55% of the
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: cash on the O versus the money. Coming in towards
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: the under here, it looks like. The matchup might be
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: good enough for both pitchers. I mean, I think Glasgow
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: should hold up his end, obviously. I know the series
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: has been extremely low scoring, and sometimes I want to
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: kind of zigzag that type of thing when things look
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: a little bit maybe misleading. I know the Dodgers two
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: days ago, I think they left a lot of guys
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: on base, but This seems like an under to me, man,
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: given what the pitching matchup numbers look like and whatever,
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: although I don't know if Valdez is totally trustworthy. Money's
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: seemingly kind of backing the Dodgers, but they're really public.
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: 92% of the tickets, 93% of the cash on them.
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: You got to lay minus 160-something with them. Kind of
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: ridiculous that Detroit is that big of an underdog at home.
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: If you think Valdez is going to kind of have
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: his stuff, maybe there is some value looking towards Detroit.
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: If you really think Valdez can kind of hang around here,
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: His matchup numbers suggest that maybe that'll happen. So if
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: you do like the under, that is kind of correlated
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: to the big underdog. You know what I mean? Because
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: the underdog has a better chance to hang around. So
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: maybe that can happen here. I got nothing else really
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: on this game. I mean, to me though, like given
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: the matchup, it seems like the Dodgers should be able
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: to get the win or at least be winning in
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: the end of the first five. But there's no way
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: I would want to like lay a run line with
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: them in the first five or something like that. San
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: Diego at Tampa Bay. San Diego's looking to avoid the
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: sweep here, man. And, uh, shout out to Clint, who
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: I think is, uh, downstairs right now. Um, unless he's
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: behind me right now watching me. Uh, we watched, uh,
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: his Padres, uh, blow the game yesterday. An unbelievable, blown
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: 6-3 lead with... Still don't know how to pronounce his name.
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: Bradley Rodriguez. Bra... However you pronounce that, guys. I have
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: no idea how to fucking pronounce his name. Bradley. Uh,
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: he blew the game big time. Uh, in the, uh,
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: whatever inning it was, the seventh inning maybe, after they
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: had a 6-3 lead, he blew the whole thing, and
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: Renjifo got hurt as well and twisted his knee really
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: bad and wound up being an error on him as well. Really,
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: really bad stuff, but San Diego's going to be the
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: more motivated team here, I would assume, because they're trying
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: to avoid a sweep here. San Diego needs to win
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: to stay in the wild card race here, whereas Tampa...
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: they're looking pretty good. I mean, they're probably satisfied enough
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: with Yankees, Boston, uh, kind of splitting that series there.
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: They probably need, uh, the Red Sox to a win
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: today though, uh, to help them out a little bit
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: and keep the Yankees at bay, which yeah, man, I'll
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: join Tampa Bay and rooting for that, I guess. But
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay, I don't love Tampa Bay in this spot.
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? They're trying to, uh, complete
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: the sweep here. Now, um, Is Tampa Bay going to
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: look ahead? I don't know. They're playing the Mets next.
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: I don't know if they're really going to look ahead here.
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: But I think the spot sets up a little bit
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: better for San Diego situationally. The problem is if you
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: want San Diego, you got to fade to Rasmussen here.
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: That's not something I really want to do. Although San
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: Diego probably has the better bullpen. Although Rodriguez. blew the
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: whole thing yesterday but everybody else was good they used
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: four relief pitchers in that game yesterday uh seattle used
• 39:37
  Speaker 4: three of theirs or excuse me seattle what am i
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: saying tampa bay uh used three of theirs including their
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: closer they did use their closer yesterday baker um Tampa Bay,
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: number three in bullpen, but I don't think they're that good.
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: San Diego's number eight, but San Diego's ERA is way better,
• 39:54
  Speaker 4: like more than half a run better, so I got
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: to give San Diego the bullpen edge here. Tampa probably
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: has the better offense. They're number six. San Diego is
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: number 23, although like I said, they've been much better
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: since the All-Star break. Robbie Ray is getting the start
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: for San Diego. They picked him up at the trade deadline.
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: He's been okay. 3.21 ERA across the whole season, mostly
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: with San Francisco. 1.31 whip is not very good, though,
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: and he's not as good on the road. 3.82 road ERA,
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: so might not be the best setup for him. Since
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: being acquired by San Diego, he's got way too many
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: walks here, dude. That's going to be a problem. You
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: can't keep putting that many guys on base and getting
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: away with it. Ray kind of does that because he's
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: a ground ball pitcher, but And he's not allowing many runs.
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: I'll give him that. He's been all right. But the
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: walks suggest that he's going to start allowing more runs
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: if he keeps doing that. He does have a low
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: hit rate. He's not easy to hit, but he walks
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: way too many guys. His walk rate is terrible. And
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is, I guess, okay. So strikeout walk ratio,
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: it's pretty bad, man. It's below two. I mean, that's
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: pretty unacceptable. So, yeah, his walk rate is definitely really bad.
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: and his strikeout per nine is not too bad. So yeah,
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: he's one of the more walk heavy pitchers in baseball,
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: which is pretty bad. He's okay against Tampa Bay. They
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: have 76 at bats against him, a two 24 average,
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: but a seven 62 OPS. So they have hit him
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: for power. They have five home runs against him. Um,
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: four of them from Diaz and Mullins though. Um, And,
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: of course, Kevin Arrow is the other one. 18-4 strikeout
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: walk ratio there is pretty decent, but they've definitely tagged
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: him for some home runs there. And Drew Rasmussen, Drew
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: Rasmussen has to have the upper hand in the pitching
• 41:44
  Speaker 4: matchup here, man. He's Tampa's best pitcher, 2.95 ERA, 0.93 whip.
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think he's in the Cy Young discussion.
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: He's a little bit worse at home, believe it or not, 3.24
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: home ERA. And that's the other thing. If you want
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: to try to fade Tampa here, they have the best
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: home record in baseball. So that's another thing. You really
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: want to pick your spots to try to fade Tampa
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: when they're at home. And they've won so many games
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: in a row. The Rasmussen has started. They've won whatever
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: this is, excluding that all-star appearance that he had. They've
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: won seven starts in a row of his. He's only
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: allowed more than 200 runs once in that span. They
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: still won. He was better than he looked in that
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: game against Toronto. I don't know how they got five
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: runs off him, that bad offense, but whatever. He bounced
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: right back with a good start after that. He's totally
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: in command right now, so he's in good form right now.
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: Low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate, all
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: good numbers here. Strikeout walk ratio is the best that
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: he's ever posted. So he's having an amazing season, really,
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: at 31 years old. And his strikeout per nine is
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: solid as well. He has good numbers against San Diego
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: as well. 38 at-bats, 132 average, 406 OPS, 7-3 strikeout
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. So, yeah, I don't really want to try
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: to fade Tampa here. I mean, San Diego does have
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: the motivational edge here, the situational edge. I just, there's
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: no way that I could do it, man. I think
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: Tampa has the upper hand. I mean, I think maybe
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: Tampa first five or something, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with.
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: The money is... Well, actually, the money might kind of
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: be agreeing with that. Tampa's very public. 91% of the tickets,
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: but 95% of the cash on them. They're at minus 150-something, though.
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, if you're going to play Tampa, I mean,
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: you basically would have to run line it. Like, you
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: could run line it in the first five, I guess,
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: minus the half run, or you could run line the
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: full game, make it like a minus one run line. But,
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: you know, I don't know if you want to trust
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: their bullpen. I mean, it's the lesser bullpen, and their
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: closer might not be available here, so. Although he didn't
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: really get overworked yesterday, but still. I don't know. And
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: then the total's low at 7.5, so oddsmakers expecting another
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: low-scoring game. Money coming in towards the over in the game, though.
• 44:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's a hard game to handicap, dude. It
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: really is. So I don't really have a great opinion
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: on that game.
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: Next game will be one of my other plays here.
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: White Sox, Minnesota. I told you you're not going to
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: like these plays. We're going to take Minnesota in the
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: first five here on the money line at minus 122.
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: They're trying to avoid a sweep here, man, and they're
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: trying to stay alive whatsoever in the wildcard race. I mean,
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: they might think they're dead at this point, given how
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: many games they've lost recently. You got to think they're
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: still going to show up, though, at home. I mean,
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: at worst, they get a chance to try to play
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: spoiler here against the White Sox. It's a big divisional
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: matchup here still. They're trying to avoid the sweep at home,
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: and Home favorites trying to move with the sweep tend
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: to be a good way to look, and that's what
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: I'm going to do here in this one. We'll take
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: Minnesota to try to get on track here, back on track.
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: The White Sox have Houston next, so they might actually
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: look ahead to that because Houston is their division leader,
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: I believe. So the White Sox may actually look ahead
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: to that game. So they might not fully pay attention
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: to a struggling Minnesota team here. And I like the
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: pitching setup in this one because the White Sox are
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: basically going with a bullpen game here. uh, White Sox
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: used two relief pitchers yesterday. I have to avoid Minnesota's
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: bullpen still though. Minnesota used three, but Minnesota's bullpen, you
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: got to avoid them. They're number 28. Um, terrible, terrible bullpen. Uh,
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: the White Sox are number 15. So the White Sox
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: aren't that bad, but the White Sox have Jordan Hicks
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: listed as a starter, uh, guy that the Red Sox, uh,
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: traded for in the Devers trade. And then they immediately
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: sent him away. Although he was the less, he was
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: the lesser part of that trade. Um, He's not very good,
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: but I don't think there's a whole lot to say here.
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: He's probably going to pitch one inning, and then the
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: White Sox are, I think, going to go with a
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: bullpen game. The last time they lost was five games ago,
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: and they got killed by the Rangers, which this was
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: the same type of setup for the White Sox here.
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: So it looks like Urquidy is probably going to be
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: the guy that gets into this game because he'd be
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: on schedule to pitch here. So that's basically who we're
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: fading here. Now what I will say is, I would
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: play this game as Zebby Matthews must start for Minnesota here,
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: and I would not pick a starter for the White
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: Sox because I don't know if Hicks is actually going
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: to be an opener in this game or not. According
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: to this right now, he is, but it may not
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: be the case. So I would not choose a starter
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: for the White Sox here, but it looks like you're
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: going to get Urquidy in this game. He was pretty
• 46:42
  Speaker 4: bad last time out against Texas in that game that
• 46:44
  Speaker 4: I was just referencing. Three innings, four walks, five runs allowed,
• 46:48
  Speaker 4: six hits on top of that. He was awful. in
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: that game. Orchides had some decent seasons, I think, with
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: Houston or something, but I think it was Houston, right? Yeah,
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: but he's not good at this point, man. 6.63 ERA, 1.79 whip,
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: and I think he's getting the bulk of the pitching
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: duties here for Chicago. That's not good, dude. Although he
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: is actually better on the road, 3.27 road ERA, but whatever.
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's not pitching well. The White Sox have
• 47:16
  Speaker 4: only had him for a few games, and Two of
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: the three appearances were bad. One was awesome against the Cubs.
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: I don't know how that happened, but the other two
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: were terrible. He's got way too high of a hit rate.
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really walk, guys, apparently, and his strikeout rate
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: is decent, but his hit rate is really, really high.
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: Strikeout numbers are good, though. Strikeout walk ratio is all right.
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: Strikeout per nine is good. Urquidy does have decent numbers
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: against Minnesota, but I'm still willing to fade this White
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: Sox bullpen setup here. They have 25 at-bats against them.
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: Six strikeouts, no walks, 160 average, 560 OPS. I don't
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: trust what the White Sox are doing here, though, man.
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: I'm going to lean into the motivational edge that Minnesota has,
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: and I'm going to back Zebby Matthews here, who's at
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: least the actual starter, and he's actually in good form
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: right now, too. Matthews, I know his numbers are not
• 48:05
  Speaker 4: good overall. 4.86 ERA, 1.31 whip. He's good at home, though. 3.14
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: home ERA, so you do want to back him when
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: he's at home. If you back him, you want it
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: to be at home. And he's pitched well recently. His
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: last two starts were good, and Minnesota's won his last five.
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: So Minnesota's winning behind him recently, and he's pitching pretty
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: well recently, including a very good performance in the A's
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: stadium last time out. That's a good sign, man. If
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: he can go on the road where he's usually not
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: good and pitch in a very difficult stadium to pitch
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: in and do that well, I like it. He's in
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: good form right now. Matthews might finally be becoming a
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: good pitcher, man. We'll see. His hit rate's not really
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: that good, though. His walk rate isn't bad, though. His
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is low, which kind of concerns me. He
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: had a better strikeout rate the last couple years, so
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: his strikeout walk ratio's not really that good because of that.
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: Strikeout per nine is down, but I don't know. Maybe
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: he's kind of changed the way he's pitching. He's trying
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: to figure things out, but he is good against the
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: White Sox. They have 44 at-bats against him, 159 average,
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: 599 OPS, so he's done well against the White Sox.
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: We're doing it. It's ugly. It's all ugly plays today, man.
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: plays of the public my last play is actually the
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: least ugly probably 55% of tickets 94% of the cash
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: on Minnesota they're around the same price in the first
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: five that they are in the full game which seems
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: crazy to me but I found the minus 122 out
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: there in the first five so if you have to
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: pay a little bit more for it I think that's
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: okay The money's also backing the over in this game
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: at 8.5, but I don't really have a great feel
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: for that, but I would say Minnesota is the right
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: way to play this in the first five here. That's
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: what we're going to do. We'll get Matthews against bullpen
• 49:51
  Speaker 4: arms from the White Sox here. Trying to avoid the sweep.
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: Let's do it, man. Texas and Milwaukee. Texas is trying
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: to avoid the sweep here. Milwaukee won again yesterday. Milwaukee
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: you got to think at some point they're going to
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: kind of be on cruise control, even though I know
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: they're still trying to make sure that they get the
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: number one seed overall in the NL or overall in
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: all the baseball, really. But is that really a motivator
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: when there's like a month left in the season? I mean,
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. Texas is in desperation mode here.
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: Texas may be the way to look in this game.
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: You know, I mean, starting pitching matchup wise, it's not
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: the worst thing that Texas needs to face here. And Texas,
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: they're still trying to make the playoffs, trying to win
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: their division, whatever, so they should be extra motivated here.
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: And on top of that, Milwaukee might overlook them because
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee is on the verge of the sweep here. Milwaukee's
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: playing the Cubs next, by the way, so the team
• 50:49
  Speaker 4: that's behind them in the division right now. So Milwaukee
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: might actually look ahead to that. So that's another thing.
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: This is a bad spot for Milwaukee. Texas used two
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday.
• 50:59
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee.
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: He's three. Milwaukee does have the better bullpen, though. They're
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: number five here, although I think they're the third-best bullpen, really.
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: And let me see. Texas, 21st. Their bullpen has been struggling.
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee's also better offensively. They're number five. Texas, number 22.
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: Texas is going with Kumar Rocker here in this game.
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: He's definitely not great. 4.41 ERA, 1.4 whip is really
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: not good. He's a little... It's hard to gauge. His
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: ERA is better on the road, 3.88, but his opponent
• 51:32
  Speaker 4: batting average is better at home. His home stadium is
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: a more pitcher-friendly stadium, so it's kind of weird. His
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: numbers are a little bit hard to figure out. He's
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: been okay recently. He's not given up that many runs
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: over his last few starts, so at least there's that.
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: Texas has lost a lot of those games, though, and
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: he's walking too many guys, so he's not exactly in
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: the greatest form here. His hit rate on the season
• 51:53
  Speaker 4: is not really that good. His walk rate is not
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: very good. Strikeout rate's not really that good either, so
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio's pretty bad. Strikeout per nine is just okay.
• 52:04
  Speaker 4: Not that I really love about Rocker, but he does
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: have unfamiliarity here, and Texas does have the motivation here.
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee's never faced him before, so Milwaukee might take a
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: little while to try to figure him out, so maybe
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: he does have a little bit of an edge there.
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: And Milwaukee does not have one of their better pitchers
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: on the mound here. They have Dustin May going. He's
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: been mediocre, 4.56 ERA, 1.29 whip. He's a good home pitcher, though, 3.93
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: home ERA, although most of that was with St. Louis,
• 52:35
  Speaker 4: which is a pitcher from the park, and now he's
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: been with Milwaukee for a little bit. Now, he's been
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: fairly good with Milwaukee. Those first two starts were good.
• 52:42
  Speaker 4: He had one really bad one against Seattle, which is
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: kind of inexplicable. And then he only pitched a third
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: of an inning last time out because a line drive,
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: I think, hit him. So I think that's why he
• 52:51
  Speaker 4: exited that game. He got one guy out, and then
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: the next guy lined one right off him, and they
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: took him out. It might have been precautionary, though, because
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: it looks like he is going to pitch today. Whatever,
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: I guess. That seems to be the case, so I
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: guess he's fine. His hit rate is all right. His
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: walk rate isn't really that good. His strikeout rate is okay.
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: Strikeout per nine, strikeout walk ratio, those are both decent numbers.
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Texas are pretty good. In 28 at-bats,
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: 214 average, 670 average. So, you know, I mean, you
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: might argue that he might be a little bit skittish
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: out there, though, right? Because after you get hit by
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: a line drive, sometimes you aren't totally informed. You get
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: a little bit nervous out there, so maybe that will
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: affect May a little bit. The money seems to agree
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: with Texas here. 89% of tickets, 66% of the cash
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: in Milwaukee. Some of it is the price. They dropped
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: from minus 170, basically, down to the minus 150 range here.
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: So the money... does seem to indicate on the Texas
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: side here. The motivation is there, like I said. I
• 53:56
  Speaker 4: don't think I really want to do it. I mean,
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: it could be an under maybe type of game here.
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: I mean, the total's at 8.5. Both pitchers look like
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: they have decent matchups here, maybe a first five under,
• 54:07
  Speaker 4: but I don't know. There are definitely concerns about both
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: pitchers here, and the money is coming in on the
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: over here, so I really don't have a great look here. Although,
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: if you want to just play the situation and the motivation,
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: I guess Texas would be the lean there. I would
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: probably only do a first five, though, because Milwaukee's bullpen
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: is good, so maybe Texas, like a run line in
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: the first five or something might make some sense here.
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: All right. Next game is Pittsburgh-St. Louis. I almost put
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: this one on my card. These teams have split the series.
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's a divisional series. Both teams kind of
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: playing out the stretch at this point, but I think
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: both teams will show up for it, but you know
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: what I'm going to say about this game. Pittsburgh has
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: the better starting pitcher on the mound, and I think
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: that is kind of the the way to go with
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: this game here. Although I don't really trust their bullpen.
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh used five relief pitchers yesterday. St. Louis used three.
• 54:59
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's bullpen is generally actually slightly better. They're 19th. St.
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: Louis is 23rd. But I think I would just avoid
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: both bullpens in this game probably, unless I was fading them.
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh is number seven offensively. They're definitely better offense, even
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: though they've been less good recently.
• 55:16
  Speaker 5: St.
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: Louis is 25th. But you know Braxton Ashcraft is on
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: the mound here for Pittsburgh, man. So the only concern
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: with him really is his innings count. Is his innings
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: count too high now? Because it's the most innings he's
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: ever thrown. So is that going to affect him? I
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: don't know. But he's had a really good season. 3.59 ERA, 1.07 whip.
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: His ERA is exactly the same home and away. He's
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: in pretty good form right now. So it doesn't really
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: look like the innings count is affecting him yet. He's
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: allowed three or fewer earned runs in every start this month.
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: Had a good month here. Low hit rate on the season.
• 55:49
  Speaker 4: Low walk rate on the season. High strikeout rate. All
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: those numbers are good. Strikeout walk ratio is really good.
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: Strikeout for 9 is pretty good as well. His numbers
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: against St. Louis are, I would say, good enough as well.
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: And 46 at bats. 217 average. Really good. 715 OPS
• 56:05
  Speaker 4: because they have had some extra base hits off him,
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: but that's still not that high. 17 to 4 strikeout
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. So I do like Ashcraft here in this game,
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: and I like him over Matthew Liberatore, who pretty much sucks.
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: He's got a 5.44 ERA, 1.47 whip. He's also worse
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: at home, 5.97 home ERA, 308 upon a batting average.
• 56:27
  Speaker 4: None of that is good. He got shelled last time
• 56:30
  Speaker 4: out by Baltimore. St. Louis has lost his last four starts.
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: In fact, they've lost six of his last seven. He
• 56:38
  Speaker 4: had one really good start in here against Toronto. And
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: other than that, he's been Pretty ugly. Although he actually
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: had a couple of okay starts in here, and all
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: of those better starts actually came on the road. His
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: last few home starts have all been really bad. His
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: hit rate on the season is too high. His walk
• 56:54
  Speaker 4: rate's not very good. His strikeout rate is pretty good, though,
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: so he actually does strike guys out. His strikeout per nine,
• 57:00
  Speaker 4: or strikeout walk ratio, I mean, it's still not really
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: that good because it's okay, but his walk rate is
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: really high. He does have a high strikeout rate, though.
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: It's his highest that he's ever had. But he's also
• 57:11
  Speaker 4: not good against Pittsburgh. 49 at-bats, 306 average, 869 OPS.
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: Those numbers are terrible. So I think the only way
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: to play this game, maybe I'll just add this one
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: as a play. It was very close to making the
• 57:22
  Speaker 4: cut for me. 59% of tickets, 67% of the cash
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: on Pittsburgh. I think the money is agreeing with me here.
• 57:29
  Speaker 4: I'm looking at Pittsburgh first five as a way to
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: play this game. The money is also coming in on
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: the over, by the way, although the total is pretty low, 7.5%, 8%.
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: I don't really get that total. I mean, thinking that
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: both pitchers might do well here, I guess. I don't know.
• 57:42
  Speaker 4: But I think Ashcraft has the edge here. So let
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: me just see what the price is on this. I
• 57:48
  Speaker 4: think we'd be going against the market read that we
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: see on Action Network, though. But I don't know how
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: great it is to really read into that. Let me
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: see what the first five number is here. It's not bad.
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: At the crown, it's minus 125. Yeah, let's do it.
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: Why not? bunch of plays here today. We're at the crown, man.
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: Let's do it. Pittsburgh, first five. All right. And then
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: what do we have next? Houston and the Mets, which
• 58:26
  Speaker 4: is going to be an NBC Peacock game. I was
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: right about the Mets yesterday. I didn't add it to
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: my card, but the Mets got the win behind Nolan McClain,
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure, yesterday. So He seems to split the series.
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: I think Houston has a little bit more to play
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: for them. Um, although I like the Mets in both
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: games of the series, I actually liked the Mets again
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: in this game. I think the pitching matchup has favored
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: them in these games of the series, man, although they
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: lost one of them. Houston does have more motivation because
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: they're trying to win their division here. Uh, but the
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: Mets are still playing like they're trying to win. So
• 58:56
  Speaker 4: at least there's that Mets only used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: Houston used three of the Mets do probably have the
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: better bullpen. Um, They're number seven in bullpen here. Houston
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: is number 13. So I think the Mets do have
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: the edge. And the Mets blew the game in the
• 59:11
  Speaker 4: first game of the series, by the way. We lost
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: on that on the show. And first five would have
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: been a winner. Houston is definitely the better offense. Houston's
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: number 10 offensively. The Mets are number 26. So Houston
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: does have the edge there. But Houston's going with Ethan
• 59:27
  Speaker 4: Paco on the mound here in He's not good, at
• 59:31
  Speaker 4: least not so far. He's a young guy. He's trying
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: to get into the majors here. He did pretty poorly
• 59:37
  Speaker 4: against Anaheim, which is not a good sign, and then
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: he was also bad against the Yankees, which isolated. Maybe
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: you give him a pass for the Yankees one, but
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: he's not pitching well at all, man. 7.88 ERA, 1.88 whip.
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: He's got one hit an inning plus almost one walk
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: an inning on top of that and more walks and
• 59:53
  Speaker 4: strikeouts and almost one run an inning. None of that
• 59:56
  Speaker 4: is good. None of that's going to cut him. I
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: know the Mets are unfamiliar with him, And the unfamiliarity
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 4: usually helps the pitcher, but Pecco is just not doing
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: anything well right now. And Zach Thornton is actually pitching
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 4: well for the Mets, and he's pitching for them today.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: He's got a 2.88 ERA, so it's a battle of
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: young pitchers here. But Thornton definitely has more to look
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: at here, and he's been better. 2.88 ERA, 1.15 whip,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: not bad. He's been slightly better at home in some ways.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: I guess his ERA is better at home, but his
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 4: opponent batting average is actually worse, but his splits are
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 4: not very significant. He's pitching well, though, man. He's allowed
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 4: three or fewer runs in every start except his first start,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: so he's pitching well. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: pretty low walk rate here. His strikeout rate's not that high,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: so the advanced analytics guys don't like him because he
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 4: doesn't strike guys out, but his strikeout walk ratio is okay,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 4: and his strikeout per nine, again, is not high because
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: it's just not what he does. He doesn't strike guys out,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 4: but he has the unfamiliarity, too, so Houston's never faced
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: him before, so he does have that advantage there as well,
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 4: and he's the better pitcher, so I have to lean
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 4: to the Mets in this one, man. I think they
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: have the matchup edge here. Maybe not the motivation, but
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: it looks like it'll be Mets or pass for me
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: in this one, man. I can't back Petko for Houston
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: right now, the way that he's looking. So 61% of tickets,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 4: 67% of the cash on the Mets. They're at minus
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: 120 or so here. Reasonable price to play them. Plus,
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: I keep saying throughout the series, you know, the public's
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: going to see that and think, oh God, I get
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: Houston as an underdog here, as the team with the
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: better record, right? And May try to play it that way,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: but I would say that's not the way to play it.
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: All right, Baltimore and the A's. The A's are on
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: the verge of getting swept here, so the A's might
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: have a little bit of extra motivation here. Try to
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: avoid the sweep. Baltimore's only playing Colorado next, though, so
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: they don't really have a look ahead here. But maybe
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: the A's will have extra motivation here. Baltimore used five
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday, so that's a lot. The A's used four.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 4: So these bullpens are probably both to avoid here, although
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 4: Baltimore's bullpen's not that bad in general. They're number 10.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: The A's bullpen, like I said, they're the worst in baseball.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: So yeah, Baltimore still has the better bullpen here. The
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: A's have the slightly better offense, 14th. Baltimore, number 17.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: We know this is a very hitter-friendly park, though, and
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 4: it's a pretty high total. And looking on the surface,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: I'm like, yeah, these pitchers are both bad. They're both
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: in the bad of their home road splits. So my
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: instinct on this right away was, This looks like an over.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: When you dig into the matchup numbers, the matchup numbers
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 4: don't fully support that. Chris Bassett is pitching for Baltimore.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: He's back up on the Major League roster. He's not great. 4.74 ERA. 1.55
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: whip is really bad. He's really bad on the road. 6.19
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: road ERA. Like I said, he's in the bad of
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 4: his home road splits here. He's actually been somewhat good
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: this month though. A lot of times these guys will
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: go in the minors and then They'll fix some things.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: They'll come back up, and they'll be a little bit
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: more motivated. He's actually pitched pretty well since coming back up,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: so he's in okay form right now. Those overall numbers
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: are not very good. He's been way too hittable this year,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 4: although he hasn't really– actually, his walk rate's just kind
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: of okay, too. His strikeout rate is really not good,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: so there's not really a lot to love here with Bassett.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: His strikeout walk ratio is not good. His strikeout per
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: nine is by far the lowest that he's posted since
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 4: at least really early in his career. So none of
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 4: that is really that good. But he's actually good against
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: the A's. In 44 at-bats, 250 average, 692 OPS, 12-2
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. So his matchup numbers actually don't look
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 4: too bad here. And he's not that bad a fit
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: for this stadium. He doesn't allow that many home runs.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: He's not a huge fly ball pitcher. So pitching in
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: this stadium probably won't be that bad for him. But
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: I don't trust him. He is still bad on the road.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. But Again, he's in good form
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 4: right now, and the matchup numbers look good for him,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: so that has me kind of pausing because I was
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 4: thinking this was definitely going to be an over, and
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 4: it seems like it's a stay away from me here.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know it's a stay away. Jeffrey Springs
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 4: is pitching for the A's. He's not having a good season. 6.08 ERA, 1.5 whip.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 4: He's worse at home, which makes sense because it's a
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: horrible stadium to pitch in. 6.71 ERA at home, 291
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: batting average at home against him. That's not good. The
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: A's are losing most of his starts recently. They've lost
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: four in a row and six out of the last seven.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: He's not pitching well right now. More walks and strikeouts
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 4: this month. More hits than innings pitch. None of this
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: is good. Too many runs allowed, too. His hit rate's
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 4: too high in the season. He gives up a ton
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: of home runs. So he's an extreme fly ball pitcher.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 4: He has one of the highest home run rates in baseball.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: That's not good for the stadium. So he really is
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: not suited to pitching this stadium. And his strikeout rate's
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: not really that good, and neither is his walk rate.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: So he does not have any good numbers here, really.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: Last year, he actually, I think, pitched okay, though. So
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: it's kind of crazy how bad he's been this year, though.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: And he actually had some okay seasons earlier in his career, too,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: or with Tampa, at least. Strikeout walk ratio's not good
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: this year, though. Strikeout per nine isn't very good, either.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 4: None of this looks good. But his numbers are okay
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: against Baltimore. 19 at-bats, 263 average average. 737 OPS, 5-0
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. What do we do with this game, man?
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm leaving it alone. Maybe just stick with
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: the first instinct and you still go over here. I mean,
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 4: the total is below that number of 11, which is
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: a key one. All the odd numbers are key in
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: baseball because you've got to break the tie. So it's
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: a 10.5 here. Money seems to be back in the under, though.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: 75% of tickets, 81% of the cash in the under.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: But I still see this as two very questionable pitchers here, man.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: so i think the over is maybe still the best
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: way to look here i really don't want to do
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: it given the matchup numbers and the money's coming in
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 4: on baltimore even though they're on the version of a
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 4: sweep here 72 percent of tickets 76 percent of the
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: cash on baltimore you gotta lay minus 150 if you
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: want to play baltimore i mean i might slightly lean
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 4: baltimore here given that the matchup looks like it's better
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: for them but one minus 150 i don't think you
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: could do that man um With Bassett on the mound,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 4: that seems just really crazy. Just total disrespect in the
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: market for the A's, which maybe is mostly warranted, but
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 4: I don't really see a great way of looking at
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: that game. If you think Baltimore's going to win, you
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 4: could just play Baltimore over their team total. That might
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: make some sense, but you'll need them to probably get to,
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: I don't know, you might need them to get to
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 4: seven runs if you're going to do that. So I
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 4: don't know. Philadelphia and Anaheim. Philadelphia is on the verge
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: of a sweep here. So Philadelphia, they have Arizona next.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: I don't know if that's going to be a look
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: ahead or not.
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 5: Maybe.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 4: Actually, it probably is because they're both in the wild
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: card race right now. So that'll be a series with
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 4: some wild card implications. So Philly might look ahead here, man.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: They probably don't care about Anaheim here. And Anaheim not
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: playing well. Anaheim's lost six in a row. Trying to
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: avoid the sweep at home, though. I do like teams
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: trying to avoid the sweep and On the surface, it
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 4: looks like Philly does have a big pitching edge here,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: but I actually don't really think they do. So I
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: actually kind of like Anaheim in this game, at least
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 4: in the first five. Maybe you could try to take
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: a shot with it. Anaheim used three relief pitchers. I
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: really don't like their bullpen, though. Philly used two. Anaheim
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: is number 22 in bullpen. Philly is number 17. So
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 4: I'd probably still avoid Anaheim's bullpen, as I think they're
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: slightly worse than Philly's. Anaheim's offense is really hard to back, though.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 4: They're the worst offense in baseball at this point. Dead last,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: and they're also just not good. I mean, they're not
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: good at home, excuse me. I mean, they're dead last overall,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 4: but they're also really not good at home is what
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 4: I meant. Philly's number 18 in offense. They've been better recently, though.
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: Philly's not a good offense on the road. Zach Wheeler
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Philly, so you might think, well, clearly
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: they're going to win. They have one of their better
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: pitchers on the mound. His numbers have gotten worse, though, man.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: He's not pitching well recently. I think he's getting burned out.
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 4: He's a great pitcher, but I think he's getting burned out.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 4: Maybe he's too old now. I don't know. He's got
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: a 3.4 ERA, 1.09 whips. Yeah, those are good numbers
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: on the season, but they were better earlier. And he
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: is a little bit worse on the road, 3.53 road ERA.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: He got obliterated last time out, man, against Seattle. He
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: gave up eight runs, four home runs, five walks in
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: four innings, and nine hits. That's insane, dude. In a
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: pitcher-friendly park, he gave up four home runs, We lost
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: an under on that game too, I'm pretty sure. He's
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 4: not in good form, man. His walk rate's been pretty
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: bad this month. He said three of his last four
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 4: starts have been really bad. And the one that wasn't,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: he walked too many guys. So I think Wheeler might
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: actually be fadable right now. And they're not giving him
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: extra rest here. He's pitching on normal rest here. He
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: does have a low hit rate. on the season doesn't
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: really walk many guys strikes out a lot of guys
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: all those numbers are good we know good strikeout per
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: nine good strikeout walk ratio all that stuff is good
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 4: although strikeout walk ratio is actually lower than what he
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: usually posts but he's having issues right now man His
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: numbers against Anaheim are actually not as good as you
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: would think. At 55 at-bats, 236 average isn't too bad,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: but at 779 OPS, Travis Darnot absolutely destroys him. So
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 4: if you want a player prop, you could look that way.
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: Darnot hits plus runs plus RBIs over. He's 10 for
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 4: 27 with two home runs off of Wheeler. Overall, Anaheim
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: has a 16 to 4 strikeout walk ratio against him.
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 4: But Wheeler, yeah, he might actually be fadable. here in
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 4: this game, although if you want Anaheim, it means you
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: got to back Yusei Kikuchi, who has missed most of
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: the season, and he's old, and his numbers are not good, 6.25 ERA, 1.58 whip, however,
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: one thing about Kikuchi, is no matter what team he
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: pitches for, he's always better at home, it's a mental
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 4: thing maybe, I don't know exactly what the deal is,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: but even this year, he's actually been fairly good at home, 3.27
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 4: home ERA, so you do, if you're going to back him,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 4: you do want to do it at home, He came back.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: He was gone since late April, dude, with an injury.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: He came back, and he wasn't good, really, against Texas.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: It was a road start, though, and you know he's
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: never good on the road. I mean, that's the thing,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: although it was a pitcher-friendly park. He gave up five runs,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: but he did have four strikeouts, one walk, and five innings,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: so I don't think the start was really exactly as
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 4: bad as it looked, and he got a game under
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: his belt, so I think that's good. After having four
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 4: months off, pitching in a major league game, I think
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 4: that'll help Propel you forward, you know what I mean?
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 4: He's also a veteran, so he's not really going to
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: be intimidated by this matchup here today. He does have
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: too high of a hit rate, though. His walk rate's
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: not really that good. His strikeout rate is pretty good.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: Strikeout walk ratio is not really that great, though, because
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: the walk rate's too high. But his Ks per nine
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: are pretty good. He does strike out a decent amount
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: of guys. Against Philly, he's actually good against Philly. 48 at-bats,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 4: 250 average. 599 OPS allowed, 14-4 strikeout walk ratio. So, yeah,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: I think it sounds insane, but given the matchup numbers,
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: I actually think Kikuchi might actually have the edge here
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 4: in the starting pitching matchup. So, I think, yeah, I mean,
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 4: I don't hate it. I mean, I actually kind of
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 4: like it. I would play Anaheim in the first five
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 4: in this one. Some of the money looks like it
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: initially came in that way with the Phillies dropping from
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: minus 200 to minus 180-something here. 91% of the tickets,
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 4: 94% of the cash on them, but they're definitely a
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: public side. Totals at eight with money coming heavily in
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: on the over in this one. I can see the
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: argument for the over. I mean, Wheeler's struggling right now.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: Kikuchi's generally not really that good, and the bullpens are
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 4: not really to be trusted, so the over makes some sense,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: but I like Anaheim in the first five, man. You
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 4: can get them on the run line in the first five.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 4: It's probably a decent price, and I'm almost tempted to
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: do it, to be honest. I think I'll leave it alone,
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 4: but it's very, very tempting to add that to the card.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 4: You know, I think if I was going to add
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: another play, it would either be that or... I mean,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 4: what else did I like more than that? I mean,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: I liked Cleveland, but there's just no real way to
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: play that as far as the price was concerned. So, yeah,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 4: I think this one... I'm really tempted, man, although we'd
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 4: be really spraying the board if I added this one, too.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: I think I'll leave it alone, but, man, that... It's tempting.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 4: It is really tempting. Windstar Scream, what's up, man? Yes,
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 4: thanks for checking out the show. Yes, that's right. WNBA.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Do you know what this break is?
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 4: I don't know what the break is. But yeah, they're
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 4: taking a break for a couple weeks. I don't know
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: what they're doing here. It's not the All-Star break because
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 4: that already happened. So I have no idea what's going
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 4: on with that. But I am going to give out
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: a play in the night game here. And we're going
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 4: to take the first five under in Reds-Cubs. I don't
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: really want to deal with the Reds bullpen here. And
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 4: the one thing that does worry me about this is
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: the total is high in this game at nine. So
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 4: given that this is an elite pitching matchup here, I
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: would say, in my opinion, it is. Given that, this
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 4: does mean wind is blowing out. So you might have
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 4: to worry a little bit about like Kazima Naga is
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 4: one of the pitchers here. You might have to worry
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: about the home run ball here. The money is actually
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: coming in very strongly on the over here, but I
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 4: don't like it. I like the under in this one. Um,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 4: with the starting pitchers out there in the first five,
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: you get it at a pretty decent number. Like when
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: are you going to get Burns versus Imanaga at a
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 4: four and a half total? You know what I mean?
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 4: And I know it's Wrigley. It's very wind dependent, but
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 4: maybe at night, uh, the cool air will kind of
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: stop the home run ball a little bit here. Cause
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: I'm assuming it's not going to be that hot right
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 4: in Chicago. I mean, I don't know, maybe I'm wrong,
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 4: but it's been, it's been cooling off here in Boston.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 4: I'm wrong. It's going to be 84, but whatever. Um,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: I still like this to go under the total, man,
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: even though I know the money doesn't agree with it
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 4: at all. 59% of tickets on the under, 88% of
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. The high total definitely means
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: there's wind blowing out here, and for what it's worth,
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: the money is not really indicating on either side here,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 4: but 73% of tickets and cash on the Cubs at
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: minus 130-something. It does look too easy to take the Cubs,
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 4: I will say that, so I think I would trust
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 4: Burns more than Imanaga in this specific setup because Imanaga
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: is a little bit home run heavy, so maybe Cincinnati
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 4: first five is the way to look at the side here,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 4: but I'm not looking at the side, obviously. I'm looking
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 4: at the total. This game is on NBC, so it's
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 4: not a Peacock-specific night game. Although they're owned by NBC,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 4: but it's an NBC game. These teams have split the
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: series so far with Both games being very, very high scoring,
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 4: which that's another reason why I like the under here, though,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 4: is because these games we've seen 18 and 22 runs scored.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: Nobody's going to want to come in and play the
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: under here, man, after those ridiculously high scores with each
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: team winning a game. But I'm going to zigzag that
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: thought and go with the under here. But it's not
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 4: even really just because of that. That just makes me
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 4: like it a little bit more. But you know why
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 4: I'm doing this. I like the starting pitchers here. The
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 4: Cubs bullpen, they're fine. I would leave them in if
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: it was a different bullpen on the other side, but
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: they used three relief pitchers yesterday, but Cincinnati's bullpen, I've
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 4: got to avoid them. They used four guys yesterday, it
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 4: looks like. Cubs bullpen's number 12. Cincinnati's is 26. They're
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 4: a bad bullpen, so I think we've got to avoid
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: them here and limit this to the first five. Again,
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: we get a good number on this, and it's an
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: even money here. You might have to pay a little
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 4: bit more for it. This was at the gym book
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: with a B, I'm pretty sure, but I think you
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: can find this number at a reasonable price anyway. Cubs
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 4: are number one offensively. I get that. They're tearing the
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 4: cover off the ball recently. But we're going to fade
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: their offense here, man. What can I say? The Reds'
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 4: offense sucks. They're 24th. So at least we do have
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 4: one bad offense here. But I think both pitchers can
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: get the job done here. Chase Burns is pitching for Cincinnati.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 4: He's really good. 2.77 ERA, 1.15 whip. You might have
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 4: to worry a little bit about his innings pitch, but
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: he's still... Not at that 150 threshold yet with these
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 4: young pitchers. That's where I kind of start getting really
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: worried when they throw more innings than they ever have before.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 4: But he's not there yet. And I know he wasn't
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: good in his last start at San Francisco. He gave
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: a bunch of runs. He was too hittable. I'm willing
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 4: to say that that was possibly a fluke. I know
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 4: his last two road starts have both been bad. I
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 4: understand that. That is scary coming into this game. San
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 4: Francisco is a pitcher-friendly park. They're not a good offense,
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 4: but he had five strikeouts, one walk there, so his
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 4: command was still good. So I'm willing to bet that
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: he's going to bounce back here. He still has a
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: really good strikeout walk ratio this month. Numbers on the season,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 4: really good, like low hit rate. His walk rate is
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 4: a little bit higher than you'd like, but it's not
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: that bad. Plus, he strikes out a ton of guys,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 4: so his strikeout walk ratio is fine. Strikeout per nine
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 4: is good as well. And his numbers against the Cubs
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 4: are good, and they really haven't even seen him much.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 4: The Cubs only have five guys who have seen him.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: They're only one for six off him. The only hit
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 4: is a single by Horner. So somehow, even though he's
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: in their division, he's actually unfamiliar to half the Cubs lineup.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: So I think that's an extra advantage to Burns, having
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 4: some unfamiliarity here. But overall, yeah, that's a 167 average
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: against him. 452 OPS, 1-1 strikeout walk ratio. So I
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 4: think he can do well. Again, everybody's talking about the
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 4: offense and PCA hits. whatever it was, three home runs yesterday,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 4: I think, or something like that. I'm willing to go
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: against all that offense in this one, man, despite the wind.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 4: And I'm also going to back Shota Imanaga here. 3.7 ADRA, 1.12
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: whip for him. He is worse at home, but it's,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's very slight. Like, his numbers are not
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: that bad, or not, it's not an extreme split between
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: home and away. He's also in good form right now,
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: though for some reason his last start was cut short
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: against Seattle. I'm not really sure why, because he was
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: Only two innings into it, and he was pitching well
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: enough that they'd leave him in, so I don't really
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 4: know what that... Oh, he threw a ton of pitches, actually, though.
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 4: 72 pitches, so I guess he was laboring. I don't
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 4: really know what happened in that start, but he was
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: in fine form prior to that, except for one road
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 4: start against Washington. But those last couple of bad starts
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: from him both came on the road, and he's at
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 4: home here. He has a low enough hit rate here.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: His walk rate's fine. Strikeout rate is fairly good as well,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 4: but yeah, he does a lot of home runs. He
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 4: is a fly ball pitcher, so that's Like I said,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: that is the concern with the wind situation here, but
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: it's his home stadium, man. He's used to it. so
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 4: even though he does a lot more home runs here
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 4: at home it's not that significant actually his home home
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 4: run splits between home and away so I think it
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 4: might just be kind of a normal outing for him
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 4: and that's what I'm hoping for here and he does
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 4: have good numbers against Cincinnati in 64 at bats 172
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: average 602 OPS allowed 24 to six strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 4: So I say we do it. The market read looks
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 4: like it's totally against it, but I like it. Let's
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: play the first five under in this one. And that'll
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: be my last play. Although, like I said, I, I
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 4: like that Anaheim one, man. I like Anaheim in the
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 4: first five. Um, it's just, it is worrisome that maybe
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 4: Wheeler will just show up for once. And he is
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: obviously the better pitcher, but, um, and in the other situations,
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 4: I think I am just backing the better picture. So, um, Well,
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 4: maybe not in the Colorado one. Nancy, what's up? Thanks
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 4: for hanging out. All right, and then let's go to
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 4: WNBA here. Oh, I don't even have it up. There
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 4: is WNBA, right? Hold on. What? I think there is.
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 4: I think this is the last day of WNBA before
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 4: the inexplicable break they're having here. Yes, we have four
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 4: WNBA games today. I was definitely right about Phoenix yesterday.
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 4: I'll tell you that. Maybe I'm mad I didn't add
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: that to my card. All right, we have one kind
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 4: of big game here, if you want to call it that,
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: between Minnesota and Atlanta. And Minnesota's not favored by that much,
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: even though everybody knows Minnesota's the best team. I think
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 4: they're 1-1 against Atlanta this year. I think Atlanta did
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 4: beat them earlier in the season once by one. It
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: might have actually been in Minnesota, too. Let me see.
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 4: If this would load. Yes, it was. Atlanta did actually
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 4: beat them in Minnesota this year. The games that they
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: played were only in Minnesota, actually. They played them twice,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 4: both in Minnesota. And the teams went one-on-one against each other.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: So this is the first time Minnesota's playing in Atlanta
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 4: all year. I think it's a decent bounce-back spot for
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 4: Atlanta here because you look what happened in their last game.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: We faded them here on the show in their last game.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 4: We got a win with a huge underdog outright win
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: with Portland as a double-digit underdog. That was a game
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 4: where Atlanta was returning home from a road trip. You know,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: I talk about that. When a team returns home from
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: the road, it's a negative spot. That's why we took
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 4: Portland in that game. And they had this big game
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: on deck against Minnesota, so it was a look ahead.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 4: And what happened? Yeah, Atlanta had a horrible game, and
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 4: they dropped the game. It did end a win streak
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: for them, and a lot of times I don't like that.
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 4: When a team loses a win streak, they'll be hung
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 4: over potentially into the next game. But I think this
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 4: is a bounce-back spot. Like, when a team has a
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 4: bad game and they return home, they usually bounce back
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 4: and respond and play better in the next game. They're
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 4: going to get up for a game against Minnesota, so...
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 4: I like all that for Atlanta. And just generally, when
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: a team was a huge favorite and they got upset
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 4: like that, they generally bounce back from that, too. So
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 4: there are a lot of indicators towards Atlanta here in
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 4: this one. Minnesota is coming off an ugly loss themselves, though.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: So I was thinking maybe I wanted to play Atlanta here,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 4: but I don't think I quite want to do it.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 4: Minnesota did just lose a win streak themselves, though. So
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: both teams just lost a win streak. Minnesota in a
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 4: return home spot. And we won on that game on
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 4: the show, too, actually. We won with Golden State. upsetting Minnesota,
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: but Minnesota has a lot of rest here now, man.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 4: So that did end a losing streak, or end a
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 4: win streak, excuse me, for Minnesota. Ended their six-game win streak.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 4: Could hang them over a little bit here, but they've
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 4: been off since Monday, so Minnesota has way more rest here,
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 4: and it's a weird travel spot where they have a
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 4: single game here out in Atlanta, but they might get
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 4: up for it after kind of having an embarrassing result there,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 4: so I kind of think both teams are going to
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 4: get up for this. Looking at the WNBA here, the
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: under might be a way to look here. 75% of tickets,
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 4: 90% of the cash on the under. The total's at 176.5,
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: so it's kind of a mid-range total in the WNBA.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: Slightly high, I guess. But these teams both can play defense,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: and if it's a focus spot for both teams, like
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 4: I think it will be, then the defense should be
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 4: the focus, and I think you might see this game
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: go under the total. So that might actually be the
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: better way to play this But I lean Atlanta as well,
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 4: but Minnesota definitely looks like they're getting the money here.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 4: 69% of tickets, 94% of the cash on them. They're
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 4: at minus two and a half here or so. To me,
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 4: it looks too easy to play Minnesota because they're the
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: team with the better record here. But apparently, I don't know, man. Apparently,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: that's not the case. Go figure. Apparently, that's not what
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 4: the money is saying, at least. But I would lean
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 4: Atlanta still in what I think is like a double
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 4: bounce back spot. And Again, it almost looks too easy
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 4: to me to take Minnesota. Maybe the under is the
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 4: better way to play that, but I'm staying away from that. L.A., Seattle,
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 4: very ugly game here. Seattle just beat Toronto, so they
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 4: did just get a decent home win there. It was
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 4: against another bad team, but they were able to get
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 4: a win to break another losing streak, so that might
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 4: give them a little bit of momentum here coming into
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 4: this one. And the look-ahead spots here, by the way,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 4: I don't think really matter that much because these teams
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: are Basically looking ahead to a break right now. Not really,
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 4: I don't think, paying attention to who they're playing after
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 4: the break. Really, yet. LA, also not really a good
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 4: team here. They just beat Washington. That was a nice
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 4: win for them, beating Washington. I called that. I think
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 4: I called that as well on the show. It wasn't
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 4: a play for me, but it was just a really
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 4: bad rest spot for Washington. If I remember correctly, it
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 4: was like a fifth game in six days or fourth
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: game in five. It was some really crazy lack of
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 4: rest spot for Washington. So LA took advantage of that.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: I think people are going to look at this, though.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 4: They're going to look at this game, and it looks
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: way too easy to play L.A., right? Like, they dropped
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: from a four-point favorite to a one, one-and-a-half-point favorite, and L.A.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: has the way better record over Seattle. So to me,
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: I think it looks way too easy to take L.A.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: I looked, and I didn't really see any huge injuries here,
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 4: so I don't really know why the line moved from
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: four down to one-and-a-half, but I think I would play
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 4: Seattle here. It looks way too easy to play L.A. and, like,
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: a pick-em price as the team with the better record.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: Seattle's got a really ugly record. And L.A. 's coming
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 4: off a bigger win, so they might be in a
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 4: slight letdown spot here, where Seattle, I think, just got
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 4: kind of more of a momentum starting win against a
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 4: bad Toronto team. Washington's a decent team, so I think
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 4: that win was better for L.A. 87% of the tickets,
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: 93% of the cash on Seattle now, so it looks
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: like maybe the money's kind of agreeing with me on that,
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 4: but that's the way that I would play that game.
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 4: Golden State at Portland. Of course, we can't play this game, right,
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 4: on the side at least because I just told you
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 4: both of these teams are coming off huge upsets. Golden
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 4: State just beat Minnesota, and they were both wins on
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 4: the show that I gave out, so I'm happy about that.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: They both just caught those teams in good spots, you
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? Actually, Golden State played two games
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 4: after that, so my mistake, but they are still coming
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 4: off a big win. Golden State, yeah, they upset Minnesota,
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 4: then they beat Connecticut, but then they upset New York too.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: So they caught Minnesota in a good time. I don't
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 4: remember what the situation was for New York, but Golden
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 4: State beat New York on a back-to-back. Golden State still
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 4: beat New York, despite having a horrible rest spot there.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 4: That's crazy. This is going to be a bad spot
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 4: for Golden State now, right? They just had two huge
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 4: wins in their last three games, pulling off huge upsets,
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 4: and now they have to go from the East Coast
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 4: to the West Coast, although it's only a 7 p.m.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 5: Game.
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 4: But, you know, I talk about this. The team's having
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 4: to adjust fast. to the Pacific time zone. Again, it
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: can mess with their biological clock. You start playing like
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 4: later at night, at least for them, it's not a
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 4: 10 PM game, but this looks like a bad spot
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: for golden state crossing the country coming off a huge win.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 4: The problem is Portland is in the exact same spot. Um,
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: Portland just beat Atlanta, as I already mentioned. So they
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 4: had a huge double digit upset win. So they're also
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: in a letdown spot coming off a huge win like that.
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 4: And they're also having to travel across the country, uh,
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 4: for this, And they're returning home, so maybe it's even
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: worse for them. Because it's technically a road trip return spot,
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 4: which a lot of times you overlook. Although in this case,
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: I don't think they'll really overlook it because they're going
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: into the break after this and they're playing Golden State,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 4: who is a good team. Golden State is, in fact,
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 4: the way better team over Portland. But Golden State is
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: only a 5, 5.5 point favorite here. And the money
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 4: is coming in towards Portland. I don't love any of that, man.
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 4: 83% of tickets, 67% of the cash on Golden State.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 4: I don't love the side in this game. I think
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 4: both teams are fadable, but you know what that means.
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: Kind of the opposite of what I said with Minnesota Atlanta,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 4: where I think both teams are going to be focused,
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 4: which means defense under, and both of those teams do
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 4: play defense. This game, Golden State is a good defensive team,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 4: and this is a really low total here in the
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: 150s because Golden State is a really good defense, but
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: I think the over might be the right approach in
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 4: this game, even though the money initially looks like it
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: knocked the line down We have 50% of tickets, 67%
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the over. And if both teams
• 1:27:45
  Speaker 4: are going to be unfocused, which I think might happen here,
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: you'll want to look more towards an over, I would say.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: But the problem is I think the offenses might also struggle, though,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 4: because the teams are having to travel cross-country, and that
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: can kind of affect you. That might affect the shooting, too.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: So that would kind of be the concern that I
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 4: have with that over lean there. I'm not great at
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 4: figuring out these totals, really. So that's a pass as well.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 4: And then we have Connecticut-Dallas, which is the biggest mismatch
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 4: of the slate here. Dallas is definitely the way better team.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 4: Dallas is staying at home. They just beat Portland. I
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: think Dallas has had a decent amount of time off, too.
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 4: Dallas has been off since Tuesday, yeah, but that might
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 4: hurt their momentum. When you're winning, you don't really want
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 4: to have a break, so they've won three in a row,
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 4: but to have all that extra time off, maybe that's
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 4: not great. Dallas did just beat Connecticut by 20 here
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: not that long ago, so maybe they don't really fully
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 4: pay attention to them. And you know the line's probably
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 4: going to be overinflated on... Dallas, right, because everybody kind
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 4: of knows how bad Connecticut is. They're one of the
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: worst teams in the league. Connecticut did just get blown
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 4: out by Indiana. Now they're coming into Dallas. They might
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: want to kind of bounce back from that, you know
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 4: what I mean? So even though Connecticut has less rest here,
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 4: they played on Friday, I think maybe Connecticut is the
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 4: way to lean in this game. Dallas is a heavily
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: public side, 83% of tickets and cash. They might have
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 4: their momentum disrupted. You're looking at like a 14 on this.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 4: So I think that number is overinflated. You know what
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: I mean? Cause usually you're going to get value playing
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: on the uglier teams. Like usually there's going to be
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: line value just because odds makers kind of know they
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 4: have to skew the line towards the favorite because the
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 4: public likes the favorite. The total is low in this
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 4: game to at one 65 and a half, which, I
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 4: think a lot of that has to do with Connecticut's
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: inability to score, though, because Dallas can score pretty well,
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: and their defense is kind of questionable, so they do
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 4: play some high-scoring games. But I think the total is
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 4: where it is because Connecticut can't score. But if it's
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: going to be a low-scoring game, I know we didn't
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 4: get it right with Connecticut the last time we tried,
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 4: but if it is going to be a lower score,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 4: that one had a higher total, though. If it is
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 4: going to be a low total like this, I tend
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: to like the underdogs, like huge underdogs when the total's low.
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: There's just more value in that point spread, you know
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 4: what I mean, in taking the points. Each point is
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: worth more when the point spread is like that. So
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: that's what I'll say. I would lean towards taking the
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 4: points with Connecticut. Do I want to do it? Absolutely not.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: That's going to do it, man. Thanks, everybody, for hanging out.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: The plays today, we got some real ugly ones, man.
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 4: We're going to be on the Colorado Rockies in the
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: first five, which I think that one might worry me
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 4: the most. We're going to take Minnesota. That's a run
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: line play, by the way, a half run first five.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 4: All of our plays are first five today, by the way.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 4: Minnesota Twins, Moneyline, first five. Pittsburgh Pirates, Moneyline, first five.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 4: And Cincinnati and Cubs, first five under the total. Those
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: are the plays today. It's a first five day, man.
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 4: That's going to do it. Oh, thank you. Thank you
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 4: for sticking around, Nancy. That's going to do it. Good
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 4: to see you. I like when the sort of non-regulars
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 4: come in. You're kind of a regular. In my mind,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 4: you are. That's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 4: Learn to Tote on Twitter. Learn to Tote on Instagram. Like,
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 4: subscribe to the channel here, and you'll get notified when
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: we go live. We're going to have some NFL preview
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 4: stuff coming out, perhaps an episode of Bald soon-ish. So
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 4: get notified, man, because it could be whenever. What else?
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 4: We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, so check that out.
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 4: Covered in Uke is my ukulele channel on YouTube, so
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 4: you can check that out. Patreon.com slash LearnToTone if you
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: want to support me over there. And LoserCast every Tuesday night.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: And the New York Giants G-Spot podcast. We've got to
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 4: figure out what we want to do, man, as far
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 4: as getting that going this season. But that's going to
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: do it for me for now. I appreciate it.
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 2: Peace.
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 5: You do not have to lose this round alone.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: On, not tonight.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 5: Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 4: On Let me pull.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 5: You out That bad luck fights hard But it don't
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 5: get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me.
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 3: Now Hold on, hold on.
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 4: You're still here now.