Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Peter St Onge | Bitcoin & Individualism | Simply Bitcoin IRL
Transcript
- 0:07Hello everybody, Welcome to another episode of Simply
- 0:10Bitcoin IRL. Today we're honored to have a
- 0:13very special guest, massive fan of his work and I'm of course
- 0:17I'm talking about Peter St. Hodge.
- 0:19Before I bring him on the show, I do want to give a shout out to
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- 0:38Check out swan.com today. All right everybody, no more
- 0:42delay. Let's bring Peter up on on
- 0:43stage. Hey, Peter, how are you?
- 0:45Great. Not bad, Nico.
- 0:47How are you? Good.
- 0:49Good. We met in the flesh for the
- 0:51first time in Los Angeles. That was awesome.
- 0:55Yes, and it was beautiful out there.
- 0:57It was a great gang. It was a really good vibe at
- 1:00that conference. It was just the right size.
- 1:01It was. It was fun.
- 1:04You had the talk after mine, or I think it was before mine.
- 1:09What was your talk about? Let's see.
- 1:11I was up there with Stefan Lever and we were talking about
- 1:14Austrian economics. So of course.
- 1:18You were with Stefan. Yeah, right.
- 1:20What else? And I've actually known Stefan
- 1:23for years and years. We knew each other way back when
- 1:26there was free speech on Facebook.
- 1:28So that was kind of, that was like my hangout, you know, And
- 1:31then I got censored because I posted something about Hunter
- 1:33Biden. So that ended up being my
- 1:36demise. That was back when you know you
- 1:38didn't know what you weren't allowed to say.
- 1:40And so you would just kind. Of say stuff.
- 1:42And then, yeah, you would be surprised the next day that, oh,
- 1:45apparently I can't mention, let's see, I had Hunter Biden
- 1:48and China in the same sentence. And you know, they were like,
- 1:51sorry, an error has occurred. And I thought, well, that's odd.
- 1:53And so I kept trying to rearrange the sentence and
- 1:55finally I was able to post the progeny of the Democratic
- 2:01candidate and a large country in Asia neighboring Vietnam.
- 2:06And OK, that they allowed me to post.
- 2:08That was like as close as I could get to the statement I
- 2:10intended. So anyway, so I ditched
- 2:12Facebook, came over to Twitter, and then thank God for Elon.
- 2:17He bought Twitter and managed to do what all of our politicians
- 2:21failed, which is actually giving us some free speech.
- 2:25Yeah. And in a way, like, in a way,
- 2:28'cause I know, like a lot of the conservative movement was like
- 2:31the ones that were getting the brunt end of the stick.
- 2:34But in a way, I'm glad in hindsight that they didn't
- 2:38interrupt that politicians didn't step in because at the
- 2:41end of the day, from an Austrian perspective, the free market
- 2:45stepped in and solved the problem.
- 2:47You know, you had, of course, this was an offshoot.
- 2:49You had Elon stepping in, buying Twitter, and then you had the
- 2:53rise of Rumble. And I'm a huge fan of Rumble and
- 2:56it that platform's been growing. We've been doing pretty good
- 2:58over there. So I mean, I want to get your
- 3:00take on that. Yeah, I think, you know, it was
- 3:06tricky when we were talking about the censorship because so
- 3:09I'm an anarcho capitalist. I don't generally look to
- 3:12government for the solutions. The tricky thing here is that
- 3:16you were kind of in a situation where you had to build your
- 3:18entire freaking infrastructure, right, Because the activists
- 3:23were going to go after your payment processors and your, you
- 3:26know, your web service provider. And I mean just just the entire
- 3:31thing, your landlord. And so really, it took somebody
- 3:36with the kind of resources that Elon has in order to
- 3:39breakthrough it, right? He could basically say, well,
- 3:42fine, you know, if if PayPal doesn't want to sponsor my
- 3:47platform, then I'll just build my own, right?
- 3:49And that's actually a credible threat.
- 3:51And so PayPal is not going to screw around with that, or at
- 3:53least they haven't yet. So in a sense, we got lucky.
- 3:56I mean, we got the absolute perfect person, which is
- 3:59somebody so freaking rich that he could cut through that, You
- 4:04know, it was, it was just like a thicket, You know, it's like
- 4:07it's like if you're going through a strawberry patch that
- 4:09lasts for miles and just you slash through one and there's
- 4:13another and another and another. So in a sense, we got lucky.
- 4:18Unfortunately it it it was solved for now.
- 4:24But I think it's a very real threat in the future that you
- 4:27have this unholy alliance between the tech oligarchy and
- 4:33governments and largely, you know, it's kind of a protection
- 4:36racket. So tech including Zuckerberg,
- 4:41including Dorsey, they had been free speech absolutist.
- 4:44They they had actually, early on, taken on a lot of hits over
- 4:48free speech because their business plan was to get
- 4:51everybody on earth spending all of our free time debating crap
- 4:55on Facebook or on Twitter. And so they were actually very,
- 4:59very pro free speech. But I think really Gamergate
- 5:02kind of planted the seeds of this sort of ongoing protection
- 5:07racket where governments can threaten all these companies and
- 5:11at some point they give in, right?
- 5:13Partly they hire people who are sympathetic to the government's
- 5:17point of view and partly they just say it's not worth the
- 5:20fight. You know, we've we've got a
- 5:22trillion dollar business here. And if we stand up for free
- 5:25speech, you know, if we go back to the old days where you had
- 5:27the warrant Canaries and all that good stuff, if we go back
- 5:30to those old days, then we risk getting completely shut down.
- 5:33You know, they have a head on a Pike in the form of parlor,
- 5:37right. I mean, they showed exactly what
- 5:38happens to you if you screw with with the rest of them.
- 5:41And so I mean really, if you're the CEO of a public company, you
- 5:46can't run that risk. You have a fiduciary duty not to
- 5:49run that risk. So they really created this.
- 5:52The polite term is corporatist. I don't want to want to get in
- 5:55any trouble with any F words, but they've really built this
- 5:58corporatist alliance between government and the tech
- 6:02oligarchy. And the problem is that that is
- 6:05impenetrable for anybody but the richest person in the world who
- 6:10has balls of steel, and we got damn lucky that he's there.
- 6:14But they'll be back. Oh, they and they are back.
- 6:18I mean the attack with Media Matters and attacking.
- 6:26It's it's endless. The crap they go after on them.
- 6:29What they just denied there was a $900 million subsidy from the
- 6:33government for providing like rural broadband or something.
- 6:37And Starlink, of course, was in line for that because Starlink
- 6:40is better than any other solution.
- 6:44And so the FCC just decided that, Nah, Nah, he's not going
- 6:47to qualify for that. I mean, he's absolutely endless
- 6:50with their deploying about him, which gives me some sympathy for
- 6:53the other cowards in the sense that I mean really they they
- 6:58will destroy you, anybody less than Elon and they would destroy
- 7:03him. Yeah.
- 7:04And and why do you think this is happening?
- 7:06So I I have you know, and of course I'm, I'm coming from the,
- 7:09from the, I've been a bitcoiner I think 1/3 of my life.
- 7:14So I'm coming from the bitcoiners perspective, which is
- 7:20I think we're living through this very turbulent time in
- 7:22history, which I call the disintermediation of information
- 7:26in the the disintermediation of money.
- 7:29Disintermediation of information start happening 1st and then the
- 7:32disintermediation of money is like kind of overlapping it.
- 7:36And I think there's the government's had so much power
- 7:39controlling the narrative for so long, but the Internet came
- 7:42along and you know, people like me and you, we just have a
- 7:45camera, we have a microphone and all of a sudden we can speak
- 7:48directly, peer-to-peer with our audience without going through
- 7:51these so-called intermediaries. And I think it freaks them out.
- 7:55I think it puts the fear of God in them.
- 7:58Yeah, I think you describe it perfectly.
- 8:00That's exactly what happened. If we had to put a date on it,
- 8:03it would be Brexit and then Trump.
- 8:05So 2016, the lesson, you know, they had spent the past, really
- 8:10the past 100 years just kind of leaning back and racking up
- 8:13their wins. You know, they launched, it's
- 8:16called the the the long March through the Institution.
- 8:18So that was an explicit socialist goal to try to take
- 8:22over institutions like education or media.
- 8:25They succeeded wildly. And at that point, you know, if
- 8:30you're in a democracy and if you own the two industries that can
- 8:34shape thought, just kick back, you know, every single
- 8:38generation is going to be more and more indoctrinated.
- 8:42You know, This is why Republicans in Washington get a
- 8:46lot of heat, including from people like me for not fighting.
- 8:49But I do understand why they don't fight because every
- 8:52narrative is going to go against them.
- 8:53If you're talking about the debt ceiling limit, for example, that
- 8:56is entirely going to be framed. You know, for 70% of voters,
- 9:01that's going to be framed by the left and the left alone.
- 9:05So anyway, they were living this in in this great world.
- 9:07They could just kick back. They could cash the crony
- 9:09profits. You know, they could just every
- 9:12day they would pick up the newspaper and it's just endless
- 9:15good news. Everything is getting better.
- 9:16OK That was the world that they got used to for really about 100
- 9:20years. And, you know, if we put a date
- 9:23on it, really accelerating probably in the 1960s.
- 9:26So you're talking about 50 years of just on remitting advances
- 9:30and then you get Brexit followed soon after by Trump.
- 9:34And you know, those were two events where they deployed the
- 9:37entire fought industrial complex or sent propaganda industrial
- 9:43complex towards, you know, rejecting Brexit and rejecting
- 9:47Trump. And it didn't work.
- 9:49And I think you're absolutely right, that freaked them out.
- 9:52They started saying, wait a second, we're not actually going
- 9:55to win, we're losing. And the reason was the Internet
- 9:58obviously. Right.
- 9:59So that allowed you to bypass the gatekeepers.
- 10:03People like you or I can talk to people directly.
- 10:06A lot of my videos get a million views.
- 10:08This is, you know, I think that would make it the top rated show
- 10:11on MSNBC anyway. You know and and what what I
- 10:16shoot on an iPhone with a with a mic and anybody can do this.
- 10:21Like, I've had dozens of people reach out and I've kind of
- 10:24mentored them and taught them how to do it.
- 10:26And OK, you know, you got to do the sound key detail.
- 10:30If anybody's listening and wants to start doing videos, don't
- 10:32worry about the video. Nobody cares.
- 10:34Nobody cares about the video quality.
- 10:35I'm not actually that good looking sound.
- 10:38The sound has to be perfect, all right?
- 10:40If the sound is not perfect, people will turn it off because
- 10:43it's unbearable. You yourself do this, so put
- 10:46yourself in the eyes of the audience.
- 10:48But at any rate, that ability to bypass the gatekeepers, right?
- 10:51They'd put all their eggs in the gatekeepers, OK, they had they,
- 10:55you know, in their long March through the gatekeepers and then
- 11:00we just, I mean we we completely bypassed it, right?
- 11:03So we did for information. Well, the Internet did for
- 11:06information. Really.
- 11:07What Bitcoin does for money, right?
- 11:09Just completely disintermediates, right.
- 11:12It makes it a relationship, like a peer-to-peer relationship as
- 11:15opposed to the sort of broadcast relationship where it can be
- 11:17censored at the centre. So absolutely, they freaked out.
- 11:21They put everything they had in the censorship.
- 11:23They they will not give that up. It's going to take I think
- 11:27ultimately the Supreme Court, Elon has been fighting, he's
- 11:31been absolutely astounding. But you know, there's many
- 11:35countries where this is happening.
- 11:36Elon is one man. He does not have the resources.
- 11:39You know, if you look at what happened in Brazil for example,
- 11:42where questioning the election got people thrown in prison, I
- 11:44think it was 20 year terms for questioning the election, doing
- 11:49nothing further than that. So I mean the the censorship is
- 11:54on the March in every country on earth.
- 11:57Elon is fighting the good fight. But ultimately the Supreme Court
- 12:02of the United States I think is going to be the most important
- 12:05institution and what it has to do is to stand up and defend the
- 12:081st Amendment. If it can do that, then, you
- 12:12know, as long as you have free speech in the USI think that is
- 12:15a kernel for the rest of the world to look to.
- 12:18Fundamentally, there's really only one good ruling document,
- 12:23one good sort of legal system in terms of censorship.
- 12:28There's only one good one in the entire Earth, and that is the
- 12:30United States. Everything sucks in the rest of
- 12:32the world. So a lot, I think fundamentally
- 12:35is riding on the Supreme Court. I love what Elon's doing.
- 12:39I think a lot of what he's doing is winning people over to our
- 12:41cause. So I do think that we have more
- 12:44and more converts, like more and more voters who think that
- 12:47censorship is a big issue. But fundamentally, I think it's
- 12:50kind of come to the Supreme Court.
- 12:52You know, if if you look just a couple years ago, you had even
- 12:56conservatives writing papers. I remember there was one in 2019
- 13:02where they were calling it so-called censorship or, you
- 13:06know, they would say people who who feel that their censor or
- 13:09imagine that. And I mean it was, it was
- 13:11relentless back then, right? That was long after Alex Jones
- 13:14got kicked off. That was long after the the
- 13:16whole witch hunt, right, Because that that really started
- 13:19immediately after Trump. So they had chased all these
- 13:21people off. We all had to be careful what we
- 13:24were saying. You couldn't, you know, quote
- 13:27Thomas Jefferson about the, you know, tree of Liberty.
- 13:30That would be, you know, that would be bannable.
- 13:32That's completely insane. Thomas Frickin Jefferson.
- 13:36But even conservatives, you know, they were calling it
- 13:38alleged and so-called and imagined.
- 13:41So, you know, I think we've come a long ways now.
- 13:44You know, if you talk about censorship, nobody shakes their
- 13:47head and kind of looks at you like, well, maybe maybe just
- 13:50nobody watches your stuff, man. OK.
- 13:52People, I think widely the majority of the population
- 13:56certainly on the right and I think even in the middle they
- 14:00accept that there is a lot of censorship going on that this is
- 14:04material in terms of public policy.
- 14:06So I do think that we're advancing but but I think it's a
- 14:11long road from here and hopefully the Supreme Court's
- 14:14going to weigh in. They just took up a couple cases
- 14:16that they might. Yeah.
- 14:19And it and, you know, to to add to your point, but the long
- 14:22walk, you know, through the institutions and I'm originally
- 14:25from Venezuela, right. So I saw collectivist ideology
- 14:29destroy the country. And I remember the early days of
- 14:33Trump. I was like, this looks familiar.
- 14:35It's almost as if America is going through a cultural
- 14:40revolution light, right. I think it was Granchi that was
- 14:43responsible for that. And then it was.
- 14:46And then the the tactics really, they're, they're taking a cue
- 14:49from Saul Alinsky and Rules for Radicals, right?
- 14:51Which is whatever, Whichever way your opponent reacts, you win.
- 14:55In every situation, your goal is just to get your opponent to
- 14:58react. And then you just see people
- 15:00walking into that trap over and over and over again, 'cause
- 15:03they're just not worth versed in that philosophy.
- 15:07But I I would agree with you, they were extremely successful
- 15:10in this and in a way that honestly is a tragedy, right?
- 15:14Which is you see my generation and the younger generation,
- 15:18they're blaming capitalism for a lot of these woes.
- 15:20And they're like they're asking for more collectivism, they're
- 15:23asking for more government intervention.
- 15:25And it's the government intervention that caused all
- 15:27these woes in in in the 1st place.
- 15:30Now my question to you is, and I, I I think I had the honor of
- 15:34talking to Seifidine about this. I don't think that collectivist
- 15:37ideologies are politically viable under a sound money
- 15:41standard under Bitcoin, right. I don't think it's possible.
- 15:45And the reason I say that is you take away the most effective,
- 15:49what the most effective method they have of wealth, wealth
- 15:53redistribution, which their ideology depends upon, which is
- 15:56the wealth redistribution mechanism of inflation.
- 16:00So if you take that away, what do they do?
- 16:03You know, how do they, how do they pay the right people?
- 16:06How do they continue to grow the administrative state that keeps
- 16:09them in power in the first place?
- 16:11Yeah, I mean you can certainly still do it.
- 16:14The Inca empire was communist, it was totalitarian regime, you
- 16:20know, and they they actually had a Fiat money, I believe.
- 16:25I believe it was based on threads, but at any rate, it is
- 16:29certainly possible without control of the money, but it is
- 16:34certainly a lot harder, right? You've had various times in
- 16:37history, even under gold standards, where countries have
- 16:39nonetheless gone totalitarian. Now generally they get off the
- 16:44gold standard as one of the first things they do, right?
- 16:46And so you have to kind of zoom in and and see the specific
- 16:49timing point is that you can get power even in a commodity
- 16:53standard system. However, once you get
- 16:56totalitarian power, you know, you have kind of this honeymoon
- 16:59period where you know, you, you, you raid the warehouses and you
- 17:04eat up and you know, everything's free.
- 17:06And at that point everybody says, my God, the socialists
- 17:09were right. It does work.
- 17:11Look at that. Everybody's got free food.
- 17:13And of course, you know, at some point you've eaten up the
- 17:15warehouses. Typically you've got like a year
- 17:17or two of stock just kind of lying around.
- 17:20So once you've eaten up the seed corn at that point, it quote, UN
- 17:23quote goes wrong. So you know, and and that's kind
- 17:28of like the history of how these things work and when that
- 17:32happens in a commodity system, right.
- 17:34So when a commodity system goes communist, typically you'll have
- 17:38that kind of grace period where everything is wonderful and then
- 17:41the hungry times start hitting, they start losing public support
- 17:45and that's the point that they typically go inflationary.
- 17:49But having said, you know, your broader point, that money
- 17:53enables the authoritarian or totalitarian regimes, I think
- 17:59that's absolutely true. You know, if you sit down and
- 18:03and work out the numbers, I would guess that about half of
- 18:07the federal government's ability to capture power in the US has
- 18:12been because of the Federal Reserve.
- 18:14There's a couple mechanisms for that.
- 18:16But fundamentally, if you control an organization that can
- 18:20print up bidding tickets that you can use to take every single
- 18:25thing in society, including to make people work for you.
- 18:28OK, So you can use those, those, you know, confetti, that Fiat
- 18:32money to harness all of society's resources.
- 18:37It it, it's actually kind of surprising that that doesn't
- 18:40automatically lead to a totalitarian outcome.
- 18:44Maybe it does. Maybe it's just with a delay,
- 18:45which is, you know, we are the ones who are trying to delay it.
- 18:49So, you know, I think the short of it is that if you are in a
- 18:52Fiat regime, you are nearly guaranteed to ultimately end up
- 18:57in an authoritarian system. On the other hand, if you have a
- 19:01commodity based money system, whether it's gold or Bitcoin,
- 19:05you will have taken one of their main tools away.
- 19:08You would have taken at least half of their power and at that
- 19:12point you have a much better fighting chance.
- 19:14So then you know, then we move to the next sort of question in
- 19:17the equation, which is you know, the ability to control the
- 19:21narrative and and and that gets into some of the Internet stuff
- 19:24that we were just talking about. But for sure getting rid of the
- 19:27Fiat I think radically evens up the game.
- 19:30And you know if we zoom into particular moments, so if we had
- 19:34to put a date on when the world started going downhill, I think
- 19:41I'd put that around 19131914. So really the lead in to World
- 19:45War One. I think Safety Dean has talked
- 19:47about this as well and I suspect that he also tags that period as
- 19:52as basically the beginning of the crisis.
- 19:55And in that period, you know the, the, I mean the money
- 20:01obviously was a huge enabler of that.
- 20:04OK. I question, you know if we
- 20:07didn't have the Federal Reserve. Would would the European allies,
- 20:15France and Britain, would they have felt like they could count
- 20:19on the US to enter the war, right?
- 20:21Because The thing is, once you have Fiat money, you can hide
- 20:25the cost of things like war, OK? People don't have to see it
- 20:28because you can just print it up, right?
- 20:30So you can hide the cost for long enough to the war, for the
- 20:34war to go on to the point where you've got casualties.
- 20:37People are angry now they're they're angry at the Huns who
- 20:39are rampaging across Belgium. So in a sense, Fiat acts as kind
- 20:44of a venture capitalist for a lot of these crises.
- 20:46OK, so saying that, Fiat takes away half the power sketched
- 20:51large. But if we zoom in to specific
- 20:54episodes, like that key episode, the beginning of World War One,
- 20:58I think Fiat. Without Fiat, that war would not
- 21:01have happened. There's no reason for the war.
- 21:03Everybody at the time said this is so weird, there's no reason
- 21:05for the war. Why are they fighting over
- 21:08Sarajevo? Who cares?
- 21:09It was this little backwater, nothing.
- 21:12Nobody really cared that much. Everybody understood that
- 21:14Austria had an emotional reason why they had to do something
- 21:16about it. And beyond that, it was it was
- 21:18kind of like everybody wanted to pick a fight.
- 21:20Why did everybody want to pick a fight?
- 21:21That's not normal. And I think that was really Fiat
- 21:25money that did that. You know, COVID, I think is the
- 21:28same story. So, you know, if you sort of do
- 21:31a thought experiment and you ask, all right, COVID hits, we
- 21:35have a commodity system, whether it's gold or whether it's
- 21:37Bitcoin. And some junior bureaucrat shows
- 21:41up the planning meeting, he goes, OK, I got a crazy idea,
- 21:44we're going to shut down the entire economy.
- 21:46All right. Tat, I know taxes are going to
- 21:49plunge, right? We might lose half tax revenue,
- 21:51but that's OK because we can just lay off the government
- 21:53workers. Right.
- 21:55So he would have been fired, right?
- 21:56That would have been it for him. He would have been exiled out
- 21:59to, you know, Alaska or Guam. In fact, what they had was every
- 22:03country in the world knew that they had a gigantic money
- 22:06printer, and they knew that if they talked about dead grandmas,
- 22:09then no central banker would have the balls to stand up to
- 22:12them. And so when that junior banker
- 22:15came in or that that junior advisor, they all said, well,
- 22:18that's, you know, he could say let's shut down the economy and
- 22:21we'll just have Jerome Powell print up the money.
- 22:23And they all say, well, that's a fascinating idea.
- 22:26So you know, I think if you zoom into every crisis, the vast
- 22:31majority of them only became a crisis because governments had
- 22:35access to Fiat money. I mean and I completely agree
- 22:41and and it it if you kind of break it down and and safe he
- 22:44did do a great job on this in the Fiat standard listening to
- 22:48the audiobook not too long ago. But my question to you, Peter is
- 22:54like and and you know, I think Michael Saylor has said this, I
- 22:57said this to my girlfriend when I was super excited about
- 23:00Bitcoin. I was like, it's the best money.
- 23:02This is the most soundest money. And then Michael Saylor, I
- 23:06remember he was asked this question and then I connected
- 23:09the dots. He was asked this question on
- 23:10the Coin Stories podcast. Shout out Natalie Brunell.
- 23:12And Natalie asked him like, hey, what keeps you up at night?
- 23:17And sailor said the exact same thing that my girlfriend now my
- 23:21wife said, which is like people just don't care about sound
- 23:25money. And that part worries me a
- 23:28little bit. And I'm going to kind of mix in
- 23:31what, you know, the recent events that's happening in the
- 23:33US where Elizabeth Warren's bill that would essentially kill
- 23:37Bitcoin in the United States continues to gather momentum.
- 23:42And people are just kind of like they're they're distracted,
- 23:46they're distracted by the bread and circuses, so to speak.
- 23:49So does that worry you at all? Right.
- 23:51Because, you know, Austria and Khan, I agree.
- 23:53It's like we haven't figured out, you know, it's sound money.
- 23:55The money's broken, but I still see so many people asleep until
- 24:00the money breaks. And then you'll get a situation
- 24:02like Argentina and something like that.
- 24:04But the money hasn't broken yet, so therefore the incentive isn't
- 24:06there for people to seek an alternative.
- 24:08What are your thoughts on that? Yeah, correct.
- 24:10And you know, in a way that's that that's just how it works.
- 24:14You know, people don't worry about something if they can't
- 24:17see it, you know? So I agree with you.
- 24:22In the past couple of years we've had a lot of people wake
- 24:24up to inflation. It had seemed very academic and
- 24:27remote. 1970s was the last time that we had double digit
- 24:31inflation. That was a long time ago.
- 24:33And so I think that a lot of people have woken up, but at the
- 24:36same time we're up against 12 years of indoctrination and
- 24:40specifically indoctrination of children.
- 24:43You know, if you look at like the Khmer Rouge, which
- 24:46specifically aimed to indoctrinate children, much like
- 24:49public schools do, it's it's very, very hard to break them
- 24:52out of that. And generally there does need to
- 24:55be some kind of crisis at, at which point, you know, that's
- 25:00kind of Showtime and we see whether the frog jumps.
- 25:03I believe I'm optimistic that when if a crisis comes that the
- 25:08American people will jump. Many other countries have not,
- 25:11unfortunately, if the crisis comes and people sleepwalk into
- 25:15it or the system is too difficult to change by the time
- 25:18the crisis hits, and so people get angry, but it's just kind of
- 25:21dissipated. So you know, that's that's
- 25:24really going to be Showtime if a crisis does hit.
- 25:27My, you know, what I far prefer to do is what people like you or
- 25:31I do, which is tell the frog that the water is boiling.
- 25:35Put a thermometer in them and show them the thermometer.
- 25:38Ask them, do you remember? Do you remember 20 minutes ago
- 25:41when you felt chilly and you don't feel chilly anymore?
- 25:44OK, so, you know, trying to get people to see what's coming
- 25:48before the crisis actually hits because once the crisis hits,
- 25:52that opens the window for governments to impose controls
- 25:56that can make it difficult for people to fix it when all of a
- 26:01sudden everybody wakes up. If you take Venezuela, I'm sure
- 26:04that there was some point where pretty much everybody knew that
- 26:06the system was broken. I'm sure the government was
- 26:10talking about, you know, capitalist plots and and, you
- 26:14know, US, CIA this and that. But, you know, given how bad
- 26:19things got, I'm sure there was a moment where the the Venezuelan
- 26:22people were ripe to hear a message that maybe they need to
- 26:26reform the system. You know, the kind of message
- 26:27the Argentinian people just voted on.
- 26:30But I also imagine that by the time it got that far, it was too
- 26:34hard to change the system, right?
- 26:36It was too hard to set up a political party, arbitrary
- 26:39arrests, you get all kinds of things that are pretty standard
- 26:42once you get to that stage of it.
- 26:43So I do think on the right, there's a lot of people who are
- 26:47almost cheering for the crisis acceleration is because their
- 26:51assumption is that once we get to the crisis, the frog wakes up
- 26:53and then the long nightmare ends.
- 26:56But I do think there's a caveat on that that, you know, there
- 26:59are many, many countries where it fails and it gets worse,
- 27:02Venezuela being an example. And, you know, governments will
- 27:06see that coming and they will take measures to try to prevent
- 27:10that. You know, I think January 6th
- 27:13was essentially, you know, part of laying the groundwork for
- 27:16that kind of a system where if if we get to the point where the
- 27:19water is boiling, they want to have a legal infrastructure that
- 27:24they can stop people from doing much about it.
- 27:27Yeah. And and the the January 6th
- 27:29thing was fascinating because you know and and again this goes
- 27:33to I think this is the Frankfurt School which was repressive
- 27:36tolerance, right. Which is you had movements
- 27:38protest from you know we we we tried to stay as as politically
- 27:43neutral on this show Peter. So we say collectivists, let's
- 27:47say the collectivist of and I know what you, I know you know
- 27:51what I'm talking about. So the collectivists, they put
- 27:54on certain types of protests, but that's fine.
- 27:58You guys are OK. You guys are in the capital
- 28:00protesting for certain things, that's OK.
- 28:03But when there is a political movement from the more
- 28:06individualistic side, it's repressed, right, It's
- 28:10demonized. These people are a threat to
- 28:12national security, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
- 28:15And it's it's almost in your face.
- 28:17And unless you really kind of understudy, unless you really
- 28:20understand and study the tactics as they're using, it's really
- 28:23not quite obvious to you. And they're on purpose, they're
- 28:27they're meant to demoralize you. They're meant to take away all
- 28:31hope in order to achieve a certain, in order to achieve a
- 28:36certain end goal. And and that comes in that,
- 28:39that's a segue to my next question, which is I think
- 28:43Bitcoin is not compatible with current US sanction policy.
- 28:48I think Bitcoin is not compatible with the way that
- 28:52governments worldwide have weaponized the money.
- 28:56And I think that there is going to be an inevitable clash
- 28:59between the two. You have an open monetary
- 29:01network where you can sign up, download a wallet, you don't
- 29:03need a KYC. And then you have a system where
- 29:07it's completely, even though it's not really, you know, the
- 29:09AML system, it's not really that effective.
- 29:12So what's that clash look like to you?
- 29:14You know, what's your take? Yeah, I think more than a clash
- 29:20in the near term anyway. I think it's closer to lifeboat,
- 29:23you know, if you sort of zoom in to the competitive situation.
- 29:28So if you take sanctions for example, So the way that you can
- 29:32sanction somebody with AUS dollar is that you can
- 29:34effectively stop them from using the dollar.
- 29:37The thing is, you know Bitcoin has a quirk where you can
- 29:41identify wallets. And so assuming that there's
- 29:44some real world Nexus that is ultimately exposed to the US
- 29:49government, then you know if a Chinese company is exporting
- 29:54product to, you know, whatever Egypt there, there tends to be
- 29:57some kind of Nexus there like some some paper trail.
- 30:01And so there are a lot of situations where I think that
- 30:04Bitcoin directly threaten sanctions less than it might
- 30:08seem on the face. Certainly for for sort of Gray
- 30:11market transactions which don't leave a paper trail anyway,
- 30:15that's true. But then for a lot of those
- 30:17transactions, they also managed to use the dollar one way or the
- 30:19other through bribes and so on. So I I don't think there's so
- 30:23much a direct clash. I think it's more like we are
- 30:26draining, you know the explosive out of the OR the air out of the
- 30:33balloon to use less kinetic terminology where you know
- 30:37you'll have a lot of commerce that will migrate over to
- 30:40Bitcoin. And then if there's a large
- 30:43amount of commerce in that area let's say I don't know, content
- 30:46or or even export import, then you could get more transactions
- 30:53making use of that in order to avoid sanctions.
- 30:56But I think it's it's it's not quite as direct as it might seem
- 30:59on the face. I think the larger issue and you
- 31:03know the thing that has people like Elizabeth Warren in a bunch
- 31:08is that sort of head on substitute or conflict between
- 31:14Bitcoin and financial markets. So the financial oligarchy,
- 31:18every single country on earth, if you go to the capital city
- 31:21and you look for the tallest skyscrapers, chances are it's a
- 31:24bank, right? Every so often you'll have like
- 31:26a resource, you know, company because whatever, Malaysia or
- 31:30something. But generally speaking, almost
- 31:33all the skyscrapers are banks. Banks are fantastically
- 31:35profitable, as you would expect in a crony Fiat system.
- 31:39They have enormous power everywhere.
- 31:42So more than sanctions per SE, I think that that's that's really
- 31:45where the battle comes in. I think that's who Elizabeth
- 31:48Warren is carrying water for. It's not doing it for the
- 31:50Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve, they donate
- 31:53money but they don't donate the politicians.
- 31:56I think she's carrying it for the banks and that's, that's, I
- 31:58think, the grand battle. Yeah, And and and it's
- 32:01interesting, 'cause you would think it's an she, you know,
- 32:04when the Occupy Wall Street movement was a thing, she was
- 32:07like the main proponent of that. When he talks.
- 32:11And now? His donations speak loud.
- 32:14And they do, don't they? And then she gets Jamie Dylan.
- 32:17Go ahead. Yeah.
- 32:19I mean, going back to the earlier discussion of kind of
- 32:22why things broke this way, I did not expect that to happen, all
- 32:26right? I I did not expect the largest
- 32:29companies in the world to make common cause with the
- 32:32socialists, all right? I assumed that they would go
- 32:35with the sort of soft socialism of the US Republican Party.
- 32:39You know, we want low taxes, we want, we want light regulation.
- 32:43And what what, what surprised me anyway, is that, boy, they just,
- 32:47they just went all the way over. So, you know, I assume what
- 32:50they're thinking is that with enough campaign cash, you can
- 32:53kind of tame the beast, right? So, you know, you can put people
- 32:57like AOC or, you know, you can, I don't know who are some of the
- 33:02more extreme anyway, the squad. You can put them in a box and
- 33:05then, you know, you can make enough friends with Elizabeth
- 33:08Warren and Nancy Pelosi that you can basically disarm the
- 33:12socialists from within. I assume that's what that's what
- 33:16they're aiming for. But anyway, I was surprised by
- 33:18that. I assumed that, you know, once
- 33:21money really made its way into politics and we got this sort of
- 33:24corporate corporatist union of state and company, which again
- 33:30has an F word that becomes an ISM.
- 33:32But we have to avoid that word. I I didn't think that they would
- 33:36make common cause with the socialists.
- 33:39Yeah, I mean it's it's almost. I mean, but this isn't that what
- 33:43always happens though that's that's kind of, you know like I
- 33:47forget what the. In 1930s Germany they went the
- 33:51other direction, so they took the lesser of two evils and they
- 33:54teamed up with the National Socialists as opposed to the
- 33:57International Socialists. OK, OK, fine, fine.
- 33:59But Peter, we all know that it's both.
- 34:02It's two sides of the same coin. They're.
- 34:04Almost. They're almost identical.
- 34:07I have to put. Have to go full.
- 34:08I have to go full screen. So if you go like all the way.
- 34:11I don't know if I'm left right now, but if you go all the way
- 34:13left, there's communist and then there's you go a couple steps to
- 34:16the right, there's fascists and then you go all the way to the
- 34:19other side, then you get like individual individualists and
- 34:23libertarian and all that. So I, I, I, I and I mean and
- 34:26it's in the name. It's in the name what the party
- 34:28that was in power in the 30s, they put it in the name.
- 34:31That word socialist. Yeah, yeah, literally, right.
- 34:34So you know, if we put them like if we array them on a scale of M
- 34:39cap to communism, so OK, these are random numbers.
- 34:43Don't quote me on this. The German communists at that
- 34:47time in the 1930s, let's call them a 60, and then the National
- 34:51Socialists were like A50 in terms of their progression
- 34:54towards communism. I mean, they were almost the
- 34:56same freaking party. But The thing is, the
- 34:58capitalists chose the lesser of two evils from their
- 35:01perspective, right. The main difference being that
- 35:03the National Socialists were OK with companies running their,
- 35:07you know, making profits, getting nice, take home pay,
- 35:11keeping the original staff. Nobody has to go up against the
- 35:14wall. What they said is, look, you can
- 35:17do whatever you want as long as you obey.
- 35:19OK, Now the obey, you know, ultimately got real close to
- 35:23communism. But anyway, so, you know, in
- 35:26that grand scheme of socialism, they were slightly less
- 35:29socialist from company's perspective than the communists.
- 35:34And so the companies went with the lesser of two evils.
- 35:36What surprised me in the US and I think really around the world,
- 35:40and, you know, maybe this is the genius of Klaus Schwab, but what
- 35:43surprised me was that, you know, generally the main parties in
- 35:47every country are socialists. I can't think of a country at
- 35:49the moment where the main party is not socialist.
- 35:52They're just two flavors of socialism.
- 35:55But what surprised me is that these big companies went with
- 35:58the the worst of the two. They didn't go with the lesser
- 36:01of two evils. They want the greater of two
- 36:02evils. And I think, you know, I don't
- 36:06know that they plan this out in their heads, but I think
- 36:08ultimately they've put a bet that they can bribe the the, you
- 36:13know, worst of two evils into at least punishing them last.
- 36:21I'm trying to avoid violent words.
- 36:22We used to be able to say a lot of things we can't, but anyway,
- 36:25they want to be punished last by these people.
- 36:28But that that really surprised me.
- 36:30I assumed when the corporatists made their play to take over the
- 36:34country that they would go with the soft socialists and not the
- 36:38hard socialists. But of course.
- 36:41See people like Elizabeth Warren I mean so far their strategy is
- 36:44paying off. You know I'm I'm I'm very
- 36:46impressed. It's working out just the way
- 36:48they wanted where people like Elizabeth Warren are now going
- 36:51from, you know anti Wall Street to you know discovering how
- 36:55important it has to have a, you know stable financial system
- 36:58that has no outside interference.
- 37:01So I mean kudos to them boy. It's it's It's worked like a
- 37:04charm so far. Yeah, it's it's it's crazy if
- 37:07if, if you haven't been paying attention, if you're not, well
- 37:10read on these things, you know you're it's it's to me, it's
- 37:13obvious. And then perhaps it's 'cause I
- 37:15immigrated and I came here and, you know, and maybe you see
- 37:19things, and maybe that's why Miami-Dade County voted a
- 37:22certain direction versus every other metropolitan city in the
- 37:26US, 'cause you're like, I've seen this.
- 37:29I I spent most of my life out of the US, so I grew up in Germany,
- 37:33Japan, about five years in Mexico.
- 37:37So it's the same like once once you've been outside long enough
- 37:42and then you sort of see the comparisons with, you know,
- 37:44places like Indonesia or Argentina, it it's really clear
- 37:48what's happening. And you know, in fairness, a lot
- 37:51of Americans now are waking up to it.
- 37:53I think Americans imagined it could never ever happen here,
- 37:56right? We felt protected partly by the
- 37:59civil society, partly by the Constitution.
- 38:03But the past couple of years, I think I've woken up a ton of
- 38:05people. And then the economic problems
- 38:08are they're waking up a lot of people who may not have been
- 38:12open to the idea that we have fundamental problems, but now
- 38:16they are right. They're starting to question the
- 38:18system. And once you question the
- 38:20system, you start listening to both sides.
- 38:23And once people start listening to both sides, I say this in all
- 38:27honesty, our arguments are better.
- 38:29I mean across the board. You know, if you look at the
- 38:31kind of just look at the kind of engagement, OK, like when CNN
- 38:35does an article and it gets a lot of view because CNN has, you
- 38:39know, bought audience over the years.
- 38:40This is all media companies by audience.
- 38:44If you do that in our gig, you're you're a fraud.
- 38:47But anyway, you know the New York Times, CNN, all of them
- 38:49bought their audiences. And when you look at the kind of
- 38:52reaction they get when they say things, nobody's people see it
- 38:57because they bought this audience, but nobody listens to
- 38:59them. Nobody cares about it.
- 39:00People don't sit there and debate.
- 39:01I mean it's it's it's a tiny amount of engagement that
- 39:04they're getting. Nobody cares about their
- 39:06arguments. Even the people who are already,
- 39:08like they're installed, bought, base, don't care about it.
- 39:11So, you know, if you've got somebody who's politically up
- 39:15for grabs, OK, they're like a political independent and
- 39:17they're pissed off about the cost of living, all right.
- 39:20And so they start questioning things, to start looking at
- 39:22different narratives. They're going to see one article
- 39:25from CNN and then they're going to see another article by the
- 39:29kind of free speech people that we have on our side.
- 39:31It's no competition. Of course, they're going to come
- 39:34over to our side. So, I mean, we are winning
- 39:37hearts and minds, but at the same time, you know, we are up
- 39:41against that sense that propaganda.
- 39:43You know, you've got the 12 years of propaganda, you've got
- 39:47new kids running through it every single day.
- 39:50You got new ones coming out who, you know, we have to deprogram
- 39:53as if they're in a cult, you know, So even as we win, we're
- 39:59still like, it can look like we're just treading water
- 40:03because they have so many of these institutional benefits.
- 40:07Yeah, 100%. And then once the, you know,
- 40:10like once, like what I noticed is once they started losing,
- 40:13essentially they implemented really the open border strategy,
- 40:17right. So you kind of flood the system,
- 40:19get people, you know, hooked so to speak, to that free, that
- 40:23sweet, sweet, sweet free money. And then all of a sudden you
- 40:26have a whole new block of voters.
- 40:29This has been done so many times.
- 40:31It's it just hasn't been done here.
- 40:34So like, it's very shocking for it to happen here.
- 40:37But Opti and I and my producer who's hanging in the back, we,
- 40:40we've been talking about this for quite a while.
- 40:42I'm really optimistic for the US for three reasons, right?
- 40:44Versus the 1st Amendment, which is getting badgered.
- 40:48Second is the Second Amendment and then the sovereignty of the
- 40:52individual states, which creates competition between the states,
- 40:56right. So yeah.
- 40:57Which, yeah, yeah. You could summarize that as the
- 40:5910th Amendment, which constrains the federal government to a
- 41:04very, very small number of things and everything else
- 41:06belongs to the states. And then the states can be the
- 41:08laboratory of democracy and they can experiment with all kinds of
- 41:10things. By the way, the 10th Amendment
- 41:12does not give the federal government control over money.
- 41:15So that would mean that both, I mean, any kind of financial
- 41:21management that Treasury does is not constitutional.
- 41:23That's that's that's not delegated.
- 41:26And of course, the Federal Reserve would be
- 41:27unconstitutional. It's not delegated according to
- 41:31the 10th Amendment. If the power is not literally
- 41:34listed in the Constitution, then the federal government is not
- 41:38allowed to do it, and there's certainly nothing in there about
- 41:41printing Fiat money. Yeah, yeah.
- 41:44But they got away with it anyways.
- 41:45And someone in the comments mentioned this about 1913.
- 41:49They said wasn't that a federal income tax implemented?
- 41:52Yes, it was implemented the same year as the Federal Reserve was
- 41:57was created or you know, began. That's not a coincidence, right?
- 42:04Yeah, no, that was really their moment.
- 42:06I mean, that was the, you know, miracle year for socialists
- 42:10really all across the West. That's when they captured it.
- 42:13One of my favorite if you ever watched Downton Abbey, which my
- 42:17wife loves it, which means that I love it, or at any rate, I
- 42:21have to watch it. And what's funny about it, So
- 42:24it's the series and it spans multiple years.
- 42:26And you know, a bunch of the episodes are before World War
- 42:30One and then a bunch of them are after.
- 42:32And I think it's just, it's just great for sort of showing people
- 42:35how the world changed. World War One was, I mean, it
- 42:40was the most transformational. I can't think of anything,
- 42:43certainly not, I don't know, maybe in a millennia, maybe not.
- 42:46Since the Mongol conquest, it has been such a massive change.
- 42:49Everything changed. It gutted the traditional
- 42:52institutions and replaced them with government versions of it,
- 42:56whether that was education, the, you know, moral suasion that
- 43:02used to be handled by the church.
- 43:04So that was independent from the government, OK.
- 43:05It captured all these things. And fundamentally it was the
- 43:09Bismarck plan, right? That was Audubon Bismarck in
- 43:12Prussia. His idea was that you want the
- 43:15state to take over all of these social institutions so that the
- 43:19state makes itself necessary and so that, you know, individual
- 43:26like people don't rise up against the state because they
- 43:28need the state, right. The state is paying their
- 43:30pension or they work for the state, whatever it is.
- 43:33So I mean it was, it was a very intentional plan he implemented
- 43:36in Prussia and then World War One was really when they managed
- 43:40to implement it really across the West.
- 43:44Yeah, no. And I I think you you, you hit
- 43:46the nail on the head. So, OK, so we've been talking
- 43:49about some dark, dark things, dark subjects, right.
- 43:52You know a bit of history this collectivist take over, put it
- 43:56nicely and let's talk about you know what Corey says, CEO of
- 44:02Swan, the bright orange future, which I think that Bitcoin is.
- 44:07Bitcoin and the Internet, both things play a very critical part
- 44:11in that in that future. So how long do you think this
- 44:16transition will take? I think we'll win.
- 44:18The reason that I think we'll win, Peter, is because I think
- 44:21bitcoins incentives are greater than than anything they have in
- 44:25my opinion. I think they're going to rely on
- 44:26coercion, but my money's on incentives in in, in my opinion.
- 44:31So how long is this transition going to take?
- 44:33Do you think bitcoins going to win?
- 44:34Is it is it a foretold? Like, you know, just check that
- 44:38box or do we need to fight peacefully, right YouTube Fight
- 44:43peacefully. It's a metaphor.
- 44:46What? What are your thoughts, Spar?
- 44:49Sparring between friends. So I think there are two
- 44:53dynamics. One of them is Fiat versus
- 44:56commodity and the other one is gold versus Bitcoin.
- 44:59OK. So if we ask is Bitcoin going to
- 45:02win? I think those are the two
- 45:03dynamics, and I'll take the simpler of them, which is gold
- 45:05versus Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is fundamentally
- 45:08superior to gold. It has actually better supply
- 45:12dynamics. You know, gold is new, gold is
- 45:16dug up. And so that's an inflationary
- 45:18impetus. And that's pretty standard at
- 45:21about a percent and a half a year, actually amazingly like
- 45:24over centuries and all kinds of different technology in the
- 45:26industrial revolution. All the rest of it, gold just
- 45:29marches like clockwork, about a percent and a half a year.
- 45:32And Bitcoin, meanwhile, you know, of course it's it's going
- 45:36to have a lower inflation rate than that.
- 45:39And, you know, you have different supply caveats to
- 45:41gold. Like what if we find the
- 45:42asteroid that's made of gold and Elon can mine it with robots?
- 45:48Or, you know, what if they figure out a way to extract gold
- 45:51from seawater, which, you know, it's been like a perpetual
- 45:54motion machine that cranks have been trying for a long time.
- 45:57But fundamentally, there's a there's a lot of gold in the
- 45:59ocean just floating around. You go to the beach, you when
- 46:03you come out of the water, you've got gold on you.
- 46:06There's a bunch of it. And so anyway, there are these
- 46:08kind of weird little quirks to gold where the supply dynamics
- 46:12are not as good. And then the other one, of
- 46:14course, is that Bitcoin can't be seized the way the gold can,
- 46:18right? So I I love gold dearly.
- 46:21But if you are talking to, like if you're a gold bug and you're
- 46:26talking to a paper money bro and after you got done explaining
- 46:30how amazing gold is, he's going to ask you, OK, if it's so
- 46:32super, why does no country use gold?
- 46:35And the simple answer is that violence is very profitable, you
- 46:39know, So if you want to have a gold backed currency, then you
- 46:41have to tell the world where your gold is, right?
- 46:44You can't say it's backed by gold, but it's hidden because I
- 46:46don't want the government to find it, all right?
- 46:48So nobody's going to accept him because I can do that.
- 46:52And so you actually have to prove it, right?
- 46:54You have to, you have to show where it is.
- 46:56You have to give the address. You have to, you know, do assays
- 46:59you have to do all this. And of course, governments can
- 47:01also find the address. They can look it up on Google
- 47:04Maps, and then they're going to come and visit your gold
- 47:06facility and they're going to have a chit chat.
- 47:08So governments, you know, I mean, really gold makes it
- 47:12extremely easy for governments to seize the monetary system.
- 47:17You know, there's about 20 locations, even for a country
- 47:20like the US, but for a smaller country, I don't know, you got
- 47:23like 2-3 neighbourhoods. You could literally get a squad
- 47:26of a SWAT team and split them up and seize the entire money of
- 47:29the nation in one go. It's got a fundamental flaw, and
- 47:34I think it's ironic that the fundamental flaw of gold is the
- 47:37very fact that it's physical, right?
- 47:39This is why people like gold. They say no, no, you can't drop
- 47:42Bitcoin on your foot. You know gold is real.
- 47:45You can bite it. You can't eat it, but you can
- 47:47bite it and that turns out to be the fatal flaw of gold.
- 47:50It is exceptionally easy for government to seize a gold based
- 47:56system. I mean it very obligingly
- 47:58actually goes out and gathers up all the gold and puts it in one
- 48:01spot and then tells the government where it's located.
- 48:05It's, you know, from that perspective it's it's kind of a
- 48:08dodgy prospect. OK, so I think the Bitcoin is
- 48:11absolutely superior to gold. The next question is Fiat versus
- 48:16commodity. And there, you know, I think
- 48:20that the question is timing, OK. So if the system is going to
- 48:23collapse like in the next 5 or 10 years, which I think is
- 48:26unlikely, then people are going to kind of go with what they
- 48:30know, right? And in terms of market share,
- 48:32the vast majority of people still don't understand Bitcoin.
- 48:37Gold is exceptionally easy for people to understand.
- 48:40Even if you've never heard of gold, like if you've been living
- 48:42in the Sentinel Islands in India and you've never heard there's
- 48:45such a thing as gold, I imagine it's pretty easy to explain
- 48:48what's happening here. Commodity money, physical
- 48:51commodity money is, is very sort of intuitive.
- 48:54So I think, you know, if the system is going to die in five
- 48:57years, then most likely we're going to revert to the gold
- 48:59standard that Nixon broke. There's still living memory of
- 49:03that. On the other hand, if the
- 49:06collapse is going to take longer than that, you know then in in
- 49:10in the background because Bitcoin I think is superior
- 49:13money. It's constantly winning new
- 49:15converts, partly by people like us explaining what Bitcoin is
- 49:20like this specific conversation we're having.
- 49:23But also just age. You know a a sort of quirk of
- 49:26the world is that old people are more resistant to new ideas.
- 49:32You know, if you look at say Austrian economy like people who
- 49:38would self describe as Austrian economists, right, Anybody over
- 49:41age 60 is almost certainly a gold bug and only a gold bug
- 49:44anybody underage, 40 is almost certainly a bitcoiner and only a
- 49:48bitcoiner, right. There's a very, very strong age
- 49:52aspect to this. So if you kind of sum that up.
- 49:56So I think absolutely Fiat is doomed.
- 49:59The only question is when will it take five years, Will it take
- 50:0230 years? If it's closer to 30 years, then
- 50:05I think the inherent superiority of Bitcoin, we'll have gained
- 50:10enough mental mind share by 30 years from now that we're going
- 50:15to skip gold and we're just going to go direct to Bitcoin.
- 50:17If on the other hand, the collapse is coming in, you know,
- 50:20five years, then I think I will certainly we go to gold and at
- 50:24that point, you know, we basically live in the world we
- 50:27do now where Bitcoin continues taking mind share, but in this
- 50:31case it takes it from gold, not from Fiat.
- 50:34Gotcha. Interesting.
- 50:35Interesting. OK, so we are.
- 50:37I do want to be respectful of your time.
- 50:39We are getting to the top of the hour.
- 50:40So my question for you, Peter, is we are heading into the year
- 50:44of the halving and we're also heading into one of the most
- 50:47turbulent elections in American history.
- 50:51And these are some crazy, crazy times.
- 50:54So what are your expectations for Bitcoin?
- 50:57You know, the next couple of years if if history repeats
- 51:00itself, right? Bitcoin tends to go parabolic
- 51:04about a year after the halving, so 2025.
- 51:06But it really starts to, you know, turn on its engines the
- 51:10year of the halving and you start to see that slow crawl up.
- 51:14So are you optimistic about Bitcoin's future in these
- 51:18turbulent times? What's your take?
- 51:20Final question. Yeah, I am.
- 51:24Of course prices can do you know anything?
- 51:26Who knows? It could drop 90% because
- 51:28governments could try to hunt it down.
- 51:30Anything could happen. However, I think that the most
- 51:33likely outcome is that it will soar.
- 51:35I'm not a huge fan of having as a price driver per SE.
- 51:39You know, normally in statistics you need a fairly decent sized
- 51:43sample and you know when we're talking about havings, what we
- 51:46have what 3-4, we don't have many.
- 51:49So you know, who knows. Every time it's happened in the
- 51:53past, there have been various situations. 2016, the economy
- 51:56had been going slow for a long time and then it it bounced back
- 52:00up. 2020 was weird in many ways. You know, 20/20/12 you have the
- 52:05European debt crisis. You know, you've got noise in
- 52:07every one of these. So I wouldn't put a whole lot of
- 52:10stock into having per SE. I mean it's fun to cheer it on,
- 52:14but I think the larger issue is what you're talking about, those
- 52:17those crises coming in. So, you know, inflation is very
- 52:20much alive, remains alive. The progress that's been made so
- 52:25far has largely been a freebie from oil coming back down.
- 52:28It generally does that whenever a recession is coming.
- 52:30In fact, in 2008, oil dropped 80% and other than that,
- 52:35inflation has not come down very much.
- 52:37So, right. I think inflation is driving it.
- 52:40I think the other thing is the political instability that you
- 52:44mentioned. You know, one of the things I
- 52:46think that's fascinating about Bitcoin is that it was invented
- 52:51for more or less bank bailouts, right?
- 52:54And, you know, that was the genesis block.
- 52:57But then we keep discovering, you know, there's like a sort of
- 53:01the running joke where we say Bitcoin fixes this and then the
- 53:04other guys are like, what is it going to, you know, is it going
- 53:07to cook my bagel? What?
- 53:09Bitcoin fixes everything? And the irony is that we keep
- 53:12having these crises and every single one Bitcoin fixes it.
- 53:15So, you know, you take Trudeau with the speech, you know,
- 53:19cracking down on free speech up in Canada, you know, and you had
- 53:22bitcoiners who, I mean, it was, it was fantastic, right?
- 53:25You had hundreds of bitcoiners who just jumped in their car,
- 53:27dead of winter, drove out to Ottawa to to, you know, help
- 53:31truckers actually get donations so they could eat.
- 53:35Right. You know, the inflation when
- 53:38when Satoshi, you know, put out the Genesis block, you could
- 53:41argue, I mean, of course inflation was back of his mind.
- 53:44That's why he modelled Bitcoin on gold.
- 53:47But it it's like we we we just keep discovering that every
- 53:51single crisis that we keep coming into Bitcoin, you know
- 53:55finds a new purpose or well, I mean Bitcoin doesn't find it.
- 53:58People people discover that yes, Bitcoin does fix this and it
- 54:02fixes that and it fixes the next one and so on.
- 54:05So I don't know what the crisis is going to be.
- 54:09You know, the in the horse race for what their next COVID is,
- 54:13cyberattacks seems to be a popular one.
- 54:16War, you know, of course, but I mean, you know, war is kind of
- 54:19their permanent shtick. So of course they're pushing
- 54:22back that. But yeah, cyber.
- 54:24And you know, we have some of the smartest people on our side
- 54:30and like in terms of programmers.
- 54:33And you know, if you take the people who are suspicious of the
- 54:37state and are interested in finding ways to go around it, I
- 54:40mean, Bitcoin has like a 99% share of those kinds of heroes
- 54:45on Earth. So whatever they come up with, I
- 54:48am certain that Bitcoin is going to show us some awesome new
- 54:51function to get around it. Beautiful, Beautiful.
- 54:54I completely agree. I say personally, Bitcoin or
- 54:57slavery. I think that's, you know, that's
- 55:01really the two choices that we have in front of ourselves.
- 55:04I do agree. I do agree with you.
- 55:05We have the, you know, the best team of ours on our side.
- 55:09That's fuelled by incentives, that's fuelled for, you know,
- 55:13the thirst for freedom. Go ahead.
- 55:14Yes. Yes, absolutely.
- 55:16Yep. I'm, I'm, I'm very happy with
- 55:18our team. I know that they have all the
- 55:20institutions. They have all the power, they
- 55:22have all the money. They they outnumber us like a
- 55:25million to one. But I love our team.
- 55:27I I am thrilled to be on the wall with all y'all.
- 55:31Absolutely honored to be in the trenches with you too, Peter.
- 55:34Peter, thank you so much for joining us on Simply Bitcoin.
- 55:36IRL guys will be back with the live show tomorrow at Trophy 15
- 55:39PM Eastern Standard Time. Until then, have an amazing
- 55:42night. See you guys later.