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Starship Update: Will they catch the booster? · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:00
  We're just about one month away from the next Starship launch
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  from Starbase Texas in Boca Chica.
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  The tip of Texas, the South most place on the Texas map that is
• 0:12
  on the Gulf of Mexico right on the Rio Grande River.
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  Basics will be launching possibly and catching the first
• 0:19
  ever booster at Starbase. Now, Kathy, leaders just
• 0:23
  recently a few days ago had a talk in the area about Starbase
• 0:28
  and about the future of the Starship and if they're going to
• 0:32
  catch IFT 5 at Starbase. And the answer to that is from
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  Kathy maybe it looked like IFT 4 was really great pinpoint
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  accuracy on the landing, according to SpaceX engineers,
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  according to Elon Musk noting them.
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  So it looks like SpaceX is in a really good position to move
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  forward with the catch of the booster.
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  Now they're in a good position to catch it, but are they
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  really? I just want to send you guys
• 1:01
  some information so you can think about it, because you and
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  me both, we aren't engineers at SpaceX, but we have to think
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  about this rationally and logically before we get our
• 1:12
  hopes up here. And I don't want to squash
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  anybody's hopes because I really freaking hope that they catch
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  this booster at Starbase within the next month.
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  It would be insane, mind blowing if this actually happened in the
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  next month. Now what do they have to do?
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  They're doing currently do doing testing with a prototype article
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  on the on the arms. They're opening and closing the
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  arms around this article to make sure that the lift can work
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  properly, make sure that the arms close properly.
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  The perfect timing for this is absolutely crucial because if
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  they don't get the timing down, if the arms close early and too
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  much, the booster won't land properly and it might land off
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  center, it might land a little bit crooked and then you get a
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  blown up booster on the pad and you know, it's almost out of
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  fuel at that point. So the damage would be minimal
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  if something does happen, if something does blow up, but
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  there still could be some shrapnel and whatever that could
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  cut some pipes, cut some electric stuff.
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  They do have cladding on it, but I mean pieces of shrapnel going
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  so fast. We don't know what the speed's
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  gonna be, but it's gonna go so fast that it could shred
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  anything in its way. So this, this cladding around
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  the the base of the launch tower, of course very
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  protective, but you never know what could happen to the
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  surrounding area. There's little buildings and
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  stuff around there that the people work out of.
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  So something could get damaged in there too, could cause a
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  fire, etcetera, which could cause environmental damage.
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  We have to talk about that because the environment at
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  Starbase is crucial, and the environmental impact study that
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  was that happened before that allowed SpaceX to launch from
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  Starbase still is intact. So if they ruin that
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  environmental impact statement in any way, they have to go back
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  to the drawing board. The FAA might get involved, and
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  then we might have to wait a year for them to fix this.
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  I don't know how long it would take.
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  It depends on the damage done. So if they do any damage and
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  they catch a bunch of stuff on fire, SpaceX is in a lot of
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  trouble because it's going to slow down things at Starbase
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  tremendously for the next foreseeable future.
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  We don't know how long it would slow them down for.
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  So that's one thing that we have to be really worried about.
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  What would happen if there was a fire at Starbase?
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  And of course, Kathy Leaders, who's the manager at Starbase,
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  in her talk the other day talked about the catastrophic Starbase.
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  The the people that come in there with something
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  catastrophic hits, right? The the first responders, what
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  do they do? They come, they care.
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  They take care of fires, they care, take care of people, take
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  care of places, people, things. So those people would be called
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  in immediately, put out the fire.
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  Hopefully it's not too big so it doesn't get out of control.
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  But it's a wetland. And of course there's a lot of
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  endangered species down there and species that are just, you
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  know, on the almost on the endangered species list.
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  So there's birds, piping plovers, there's turtles,
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  etcetera. And if something happens to
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  that, they could be set back months.
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  Now, on a bright side, it looks like the tests are going really
• 4:36
  well. And if the tests are going well
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  and it looks like the chopsticks could perfectly just just hug
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  that booster perfectly as it lands, that would be so cool.
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  I'd be so excited. It's going to be exciting no
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  matter what, no matter what happens.
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  So the the negative Nancy in me is like, oh man, I really hope
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  they wait for a couple more launches so they can land this
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  thing. But I really wanted to land this
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  thing as soon as possible so I can see this thing land.
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  Because if this booster lands, if it does land, this is going
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  to change everything. Everything about spaceflight,
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  the way that spaceflight is conducted.
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  Falcon 9 is obsolete almost at that point.
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  Of course there will still be missions until space XS Starship
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  is fully realized, fully tested numerous times, gets to orbit a
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  bunch of times, does some Starlink deployments, which
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  they're not going to do right away by the way.
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  But we were all hoping because they did the payload door.
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  Remember that when they did the payload door tests were like IFT
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  4, three launches, Starlinks. Everybody was like, dude, we're
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  doing it. They're going for it.
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  They're going for Starlinks, they're going to orbit, and
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  they're going to launch some Starlinks into orbit.
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  But that didn't happen. So IFT 5, Elon said no, no, no,
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  no, no Starlinks. But maybe in the near future,
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  maybe IFT 9, maybe 10, maybe 10's, the magic number.
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  That seems like a good run number for Starlink launches.
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  But if they land this booster at Starbase, everything changes
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  because if they can land this booster and if they probably
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  won't fly it again because it it did its thing, it did its
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  mission, they'll probably do another booster and they'll try
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  to land every booster after that.
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  We'll see what happens, right? They're building tower two.
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  Should they wait until more of tower two is built?
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  I mean, because if something does happen to the tower one and
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  they can't fix it for six months, they're way behind
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  schedule at that point. Build up tower two.
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  I know it's going to take six months for tower two to be
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  built, six months to a year for tower two to be built.
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  But just wait for a little bit at least because we want to see
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  this thing land and we don't want to.
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  We don't want to wait and nobody else wants.
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  NASA doesn't want to wait. NASA won't.
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  I mean, NASA has a contract with SpaceX.
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  And of course, if SpaceX does something stupid, NASA will get
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  in there and be like, Hey, we paid you good money for for the
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  Starship trip to the moon. So stop it, SpaceX, you got to
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  you got to stop being irresponsible.
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  We understand your test schedule.
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  We understand that you like to push things.
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  We like to push boundaries. But you don't have to do that
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  right away. I think NASA could step in and
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  be like, hey, talk some sense into Elon, even though he knows
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  what he's doing and the SpaceX and years know exactly what
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  they're doing. There could be a time where Elon
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  and company just get a gentle pushback just a little bit, just
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  a little nudge, a little nudge from NASA and NASA says, hey,
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  SpaceX, just hold off just a minute.
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  Just hold off for like two flights at least make sure you
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  get everything tested a bunch of times and maybe do like AI don't
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  know a hover test. I don't know.
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  I don't know what they could do, but I think SpaceX is in a
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  really good spot right now. And I think, I don't think
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  they're going to be landing this at the at the arms anytime soon,
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  chopsticks anytime soon. I think within the next three
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  flights, probably couple flights from now, we'll have a landing.
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  But I also believe that Kathy knows a lot more than you know,
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  anybody else in this. And she said this a couple days
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  ago. So couple days ago.
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  Kathy's like, I don't know. I, I, I really don't know.
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  She doesn't. They don't have enough data.
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  They haven't done the testing yet and but if everything goes
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  well, we could possibly see it within, you know, the by the end
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  of July, we could see a booster landing at Brownsville,
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  Starbase, Texas, Boca Chica. It'd be wild.
• 8:51
  It'd be absolutely wild. So let me know what you think of
• 8:53
  the comments. And while you're down in that
• 8:55
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• 9:11
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• 9:14
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• 9:16
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• 9:20
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• 9:22
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  platform. Thank you very much for
• 9:44
  listening today and watching. I appreciate your time and
• 9:48
  please take care of yourselves and each other and I will see
• 9:51
  you in the next one. Also, go SpaceX, go Starship.