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Experts react to US financial offensive on Iran · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We are launching an economic onslaught against Iran's financial connections
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: around the globe. Our objective is to sever every economic
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Let's talk to Jeremy Diamond, who is in Tel Aviv,
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: about the very latest there. Jeremy, what are you hearing?
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: Well, listen, without a doubt, Treasury Secretary Besson's message is
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  Speaker 3: going to ripple around the world. A lot of questions
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: are going to be raised by U.S.
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  Speaker 1: Allies.
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  Speaker 3: I do think it was interesting that when you think
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  Speaker 3: about what's happened in the last few days, it was
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  Speaker 3: only a few days ago that the UAE, a close U.S.
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  Speaker 3: ally before this announcement, announced that it was cutting off
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  Speaker 3: all trade ties with Iran. And that is quite a
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  Speaker 3: significant trade relationship. At the time, it seemed like it
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  Speaker 3: was because of some ballistic missiles that Iran had fired
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  Speaker 3: in the direction of UAE territory. But I think with
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  Speaker 3: this announcement now, it seems quite clear that there has
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  Speaker 3: already been some quiet behind the scenes diplomacy. And it
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  Speaker 3: does appear as if the UAE heeded this threat from
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  Speaker 3: the United States to impose these secondary sanctions and decided
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  Speaker 3: to kind of take action into its own matters. Now,
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  Speaker 3: as it relates to the Iranian response, we haven't yet
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  Speaker 3: received a response to Besant's remarks just now, but they
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  Speaker 3: have been responding generally to this threat from the United
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  Speaker 3: States of broader economic warfare. We heard from Iran's top
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  Speaker 3: security official, Mohsen Rezaei, who said that Iran will neutralize
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  Speaker 3: the economic war. And he also had a message for
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  Speaker 3: any Gulf countries allied with the United States that would
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  Speaker 3: seek to support the United States economic warfare against Iran,
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  Speaker 3: vowing that Iran would stop all flows of oil out
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  Speaker 3: of the Persian Gulf, including out of the Strait of Hormuz.
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  Speaker 3: And that appears to be a threat of military action.
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  Speaker 3: That would be the clearest way for Iran to prevent
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  Speaker 3: those outflows. Now, whether they can actually do that or
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  Speaker 3: not is another question. But Iran certainly has shown an
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  Speaker 3: ability and a willingness to continue to escalate on the
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  Speaker 3: military ladder as the United States tries to escalate things
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  Speaker 3: from a financial and diplomatic isolation standpoint. And so it
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  Speaker 3: seems as if as the United States is turning towards
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  Speaker 3: escalatory measures on the economic front, Iran is signaling that
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  Speaker 3: it is willing and able to counter those measures with
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  Speaker 3: its own military responses. We do also know that Iranian
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  Speaker 3: officials met today with the Pakistani field marshal, who is
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  Speaker 3: in Tehran today, trying to get these negotiations back on track.
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  Speaker 3: But in the absence of any progress on that front,
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  Speaker 3: it does very much seem like both the United States
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  Speaker 3: and Iran are heading for more escalation.
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  Speaker 4: Jeremy Diamond, Lifeforce in Tel Aviv. Thank you so much.
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  Speaker 4: Let's get some analysis on these headlines with Justin Wolfers.
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: He's a professor of economics at the University of Michigan
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  Speaker 4: and Colonel Cedric Layton, a CNN military analyst. Colonel Layton,
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  Speaker 4: first to you, what is this going to do for
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  Speaker 4: the U.S.? And it's attempt to achieve these objectives and
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  Speaker 4: get concessions from Tehran?
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  Speaker 5: This is going to be really interesting to watch, Boris,
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  Speaker 5: because there are several things that are at play here
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  Speaker 5: when it comes to Iran and how it's actually functioning economically.
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  Speaker 5: One of them is that they have the Caspian Sea,
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  Speaker 5: which connects them to Russia. So they can use the
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  Speaker 5: Caspian Sea as basically a trade route that allows the
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  Speaker 5: Russians to transfer weapons, transfer goods of various types. So
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  Speaker 5: they have that. They also have a rail line, actually
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  Speaker 5: two rail lines, that cross into Turkmenistan from Iran. Those
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  Speaker 5: two rail lines would be ripe military targets in a
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  Speaker 5: case like this, in addition to the economic sanctions. If
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  Speaker 5: those rail lines are not attacked by the United States
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  Speaker 5: or any other party, they could still be used to
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  Speaker 5: transfer a lot of goods and services between Russia, the
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  Speaker 5: Russian rail system, and the Chinese rail system into Iran,
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  Speaker 5: because those rail systems connect via Turkmenistan and the other
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  Speaker 5: countries into the Iranian railroad system. So those areas would
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  Speaker 5: be kind of key if you're going to really impose
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  Speaker 5: true sanctions on the Iranians, because the way things are
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  Speaker 5: set up there, the Iranians have the capability to use
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  Speaker 5: those two areas, the Caspian Sea, as well as the
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  Speaker 5: land borders into Turkmenistan for some pretty significant financial gain, actually.
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  Speaker 2: And Justin, how do you see this working and how
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  Speaker 2: do you see it affecting the global economy?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, I just want to start with a quote I
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  Speaker 6: just found. It's from 1962 from John F. Kennedy, Secretary
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  Speaker 6: of State. He said, our aim is to tighten the
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  Speaker 6: noose around the Cuban economy until that regime becomes a
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  Speaker 6: complete pariah. The analogy, the language is so similar to
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  Speaker 6: that that Scott Besant was just using with respect to Iran.
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  Speaker 6: The economic approach is exactly the same. We want to
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  Speaker 6: not only create a blockade around the island nation of Cuba,
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  Speaker 6: or in this case around Iran, but also punish anyone
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  Speaker 6: who gets involved and does business. It was then with
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  Speaker 6: the Cubans, now with the Iranians. Well, what ultimately happened,
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  Speaker 6: Castro stayed in power. He outlived Kennedy. We still have
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  Speaker 6: those sanctions and the regime more than 60 years later
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  Speaker 6: hasn't toppled. So if at first you don't succeed with Cuba, try,
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  Speaker 6: try again in Iran. The big question here is what
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  Speaker 6: happens if the rest of the world doesn't want to
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  Speaker 6: join us in this adventure? If so, if they don't
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  Speaker 6: want to join us, then the president is effectively just
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  Speaker 6: declared a trade war against all of those other countries
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  Speaker 6: as well. So the implications for the United States are huge.
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  Speaker 6: It's not just trade. It's also the financial plumbing, which
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  Speaker 6: the U.S. owns a lot of the pipes. The Iranians
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  Speaker 6: own the Strait of Hormuz that you get oil out through.
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  Speaker 6: We own the financial pipes. And he's sort of saying
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  Speaker 6: we're not going to give you access to those pipes. look,
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  Speaker 6: the value of those pipes is going to change as well.
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  Speaker 4: When it comes to U.S. consumers, I imagine that actually
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  Speaker 4: striking out on that kind of action against Russia and
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  Speaker 4: China and others, perhaps, wouldn't that make the price of
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  Speaker 4: everyday goods go up for Americans outside of just energy prices?
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, so look, If everyone goes along, if they all
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  Speaker 6: say as a global community, we believe that Iran is
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  Speaker 6: a pariah and we all get together and we agree
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  Speaker 6: in a room that this is what we want to do,
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  Speaker 6: that would cause immense harm in Iran and not much
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  Speaker 6: in the United States. If the rest of the global
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  Speaker 6: community is not convinced it's in their best interests, then
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  Speaker 6: the United States would have to impose sanctions against those
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  Speaker 6: who do business with Iran, in which case it's Americans
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  Speaker 6: who are going to suffer enormously as a result of that.
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  Speaker 6: which is why I still wonder why the administration won't
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  Speaker 6: just sit down with the American people, look us in
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  Speaker 6: the eye, make the case for this and be honest
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  Speaker 6: and say they're asking you and I to suffer for
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  Speaker 6: a war effort. If we'd had that discussion, then maybe
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  Speaker 6: people would be willing to make those sacrifices. Instead, they're
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  Speaker 6: lying about the sacrifices that may well be required if,
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  Speaker 6: and there's a big if here, if they live up
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  Speaker 6: to what they're saying they're.
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  Speaker 5: Going to do.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, they may not be connecting the dots for people here.
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  Speaker 2: And so, Colonel, as we're looking at this pivot towards
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  Speaker 2: economic warfare instead, but Iran is making it clear that
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  Speaker 2: their response may be a military one, right? In the
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  Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz, physically affecting the flow of oil in
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  Speaker 2: a way that requires a military engagement by the U.S.,
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  Speaker 2: For what was supposed to be an in-and-out military engagement,
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  Speaker 2: where does that now leave the U.S.? Yeah, so the U.S.
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  Speaker 5: Is basically stuck militarily because you have to have a
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  Speaker 5: military presence in order to enforce any sanctions that are
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  Speaker 5: being levied on Iran. So in addition to all the
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  Speaker 5: economic aspects that Justin was talking about, as well as
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  Speaker 5: shutting off the pipes like the SWIFT system and things
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  Speaker 5: like that, what you have to do is you have
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  Speaker 5: to maintain that presence in and around the Persian Gulf
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  Speaker 5: and especially around the Strait of Hormuz. That's going to
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  Speaker 5: be much more difficult because you have a lot of
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  Speaker 5: the bases that we've relied on in the past have basically,
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  Speaker 5: you know, you can't quite say rendered useless, but they've
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  Speaker 5: definitely been impacted by Iranian drone and missile attacks throughout
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  Speaker 5: the course of this war. So the Iranians have the
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  Speaker 5: strength of geography at their feet. They also have the
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  Speaker 5: ability to swarm activities like their fast boats, their drones,
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  Speaker 5: their missiles, obviously. And when they do that, they can
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  Speaker 5: impact things like carrier battle groups. So this is going
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  Speaker 5: to be a critical moment as the George Washington comes in,
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  Speaker 5: has now come into the Arabian Sea and replaced the
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  Speaker 5: Abraham Lincoln as a carrier. It's going to be important
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  Speaker 5: for the crew on the George Washington and the entire
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  Speaker 5: carrier battle group to be ready for this kind of
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  Speaker 5: activity because the Iranians, they mean what they say at
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  Speaker 5: this particular moment in time, and you can expect them
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  Speaker 5: to go after not only U.S. military forces, but also U.S.
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  Speaker 5: economic interests in the Gulf, as well as the economic
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  Speaker 5: and military interests and bases of the Arab Gulf nations.
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  Speaker 5: So this could very well lead to a much broader confrontation,
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  Speaker 5: one that the Arab states have tried to avoid, even
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  Speaker 5: though some of them have attacked Iran as well. It's
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  Speaker 5: going to be something that will require a lot of
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  Speaker 5: finesse to basically keep it boxed in.