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NFL Conference Championships Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
0:15
Speaker 1: is our NFL Playoffs Conference Championship preview, the Tuesday NFL episode.
0:22
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action
0:27
Speaker 1: Network and incredible final four set for the conference title games.
0:33
Speaker 1: We got the Ravens, the presumptive NFL MVP and quarterback
0:38
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, against the defending champs and Patrick Mahomes and
0:44
Speaker 1: the Taylor Swift Army in the Chiefs, the number one
0:48
Speaker 1: seed in the NFC, one of the most potent offenses
0:52
Speaker 1: in the NFL in the forty nine Ers against everyone's
0:54
Speaker 1: favorite Cinderell Story, the Detroit Rock City Lions, and and Campbell.
1:06
Speaker 1: On today's show, we will of course get to our
1:07
Speaker 1: Simon says, our exact decision. On Thursday, we will finalise
1:10
Speaker 1: our big Balls bet of the week, our Foxhall and
1:13
Speaker 1: our money line parlay. Now, let's bring in my co host,
1:16
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my capadre professional better Simon Hunter
1:22
Speaker 1: and as hoy Man.
1:24
Speaker 2: Hello, hot shot, how we doing, my eye?
1:26
Speaker 1: Brother? We are wiping the slate clean from last week.
1:30
Speaker 1: We are looking ahead of the games. We put our
1:32
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1:37
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2:28
Speaker 1: us a like. We are the Action Network YouTube page. Brother,
2:35
Speaker 1: There's only so many games to talk about. Right now.
2:39
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore Ravens are three and
2:44
Speaker 1: a half point favorites. The Chiefs are in their sixth
2:50
Speaker 1: consecutive conference championship game, too, shy of New England's record
2:55
Speaker 1: for consecutive conference title games when they made eight from
2:59
Speaker 1: two thousan at eleven to twenty eighteen. All Right, this one,
3:03
Speaker 1: as they like to say, is painted across the board.
3:07
Speaker 1: You liked it at three on Sunday night. Think you
3:10
Speaker 1: also liked you liked it at three and a half
3:12
Speaker 1: on Sunday night. We're hoping people would look around for three.
3:16
Speaker 1: It got there for about twenty four hours. Now it's
3:19
Speaker 1: back at three and a half. You're still there, Yeah,
3:23
Speaker 1: still there.
3:24
Speaker 2: And obviously we're gonna break down this game a ton
3:26
Speaker 2: this week, but it's it's definitely a scary bet chat
3:31
Speaker 2: we talked a little bit about what came on where
3:32
Speaker 2: it's just like, how are you not terrified to be
3:35
Speaker 2: against my home especially after last week where it's like,
3:38
Speaker 2: you know, we left them for dead. I really did
3:41
Speaker 2: not believe that they would be able to do what
3:43
Speaker 2: they did last week. So I'm just trying not to overreact.
3:46
Speaker 2: To and that's the hardest part about gambling and my
3:48
Speaker 2: favorite part where it's like we had a week from
3:51
Speaker 2: hell last week, it's irrelevant. You're on to the next
3:54
Speaker 2: week and it's all about this upcoming week. And Sam
3:56
Speaker 2: goes when we have the best week ever, when we
3:57
Speaker 2: go four and oh, it's like, doesn't matter. On to
4:00
Speaker 2: the next week. And that's how I feel that this week,
4:02
Speaker 2: where it's like I'm trying not to overreact to what
4:04
Speaker 2: happened last week. With this Chiefs team, it's like there's
4:09
Speaker 2: still little problems that you can notice with that team.
4:11
Speaker 2: They're just not the same Chiefs. But the fear is
4:14
Speaker 2: Mahomes takes it to another level that you know, we
4:18
Speaker 2: only ever seen one other quarterback in my lifetime take
4:20
Speaker 2: it to that level, which is the Brady, which is
4:23
Speaker 2: anytime you have a lead against them, you never feel safe.
4:27
Speaker 2: Like even at that halftime, I think it was seventeen
4:29
Speaker 2: thirteen with the Bills, it's like, well, Mahomes is getting
4:32
Speaker 2: the ball to start the second half like this. You
4:34
Speaker 2: just never feel comfortable against Mahome, especially in the playoffs.
4:37
Speaker 2: So this is a tough bet and I bet that.
4:40
Speaker 2: I mean, as soon as we got done our Sunday show.
4:43
Speaker 2: I think I got four phone calls from different pros
4:45
Speaker 2: being like you're a fucking fool, Like how you're going
4:47
Speaker 2: to against Mahomes again? Didn't you learn your lesson? Like
4:51
Speaker 2: this is easy money, Like we just keep betting Mahomes
4:53
Speaker 2: of the dog and we keep winning. And what am
4:55
Speaker 2: I going to say back to that? Cause it's like
4:57
Speaker 2: I've bet Mahomes of the dog. I love that trend
5:00
Speaker 2: and it's awesome. It's like I just I can't look
5:04
Speaker 2: past how bad they've been this year and that they
5:08
Speaker 2: already had three more guys get hurt on that defense
5:10
Speaker 2: against that Bills team, Like now they're down even more
5:12
Speaker 2: guys going against the Ravens team that we already talked about.
5:15
Speaker 2: They're getting healthier, like they're getting Humphrey back, they're getting
5:18
Speaker 2: Mark Andrews back, Like how are these not huge deals?
5:21
Speaker 2: Like how are these not worth? How are these two
5:23
Speaker 2: guys too? Pro Bowler is not worth at least half
5:26
Speaker 2: a point to the spread? So think the number is right?
5:29
Speaker 2: Like to me, I told giant model this at four,
5:32
Speaker 2: But I say all the time in the playoffs, you
5:36
Speaker 2: can say, well forget your model, Like what do you
5:37
Speaker 2: actually think of this game? And it's like, I think
5:40
Speaker 2: three three and a half just feels right, like that's
5:42
Speaker 2: where it should be. The public professionals will come in
5:46
Speaker 2: on this Ravens team at three and then if it
5:49
Speaker 2: goes at three and a half, four, come on, we
5:51
Speaker 2: already know the deal. Eighty percent of all the money,
5:53
Speaker 2: everything that's gonna be bet on this game will happened
5:56
Speaker 2: between Saturday and Sunday night, Like all the money will
5:58
Speaker 2: come in very late. Where do you think all the
6:01
Speaker 2: money's gonna go. It's going to go on this Chiefs
6:03
Speaker 2: team at a dog number. Like the fact that it's
6:04
Speaker 2: three and a half it kind of lets you know that, like, okay,
6:08
Speaker 2: the books they've taken the Ravens money. Now they'll just
6:11
Speaker 2: wait and take a ton of Chiefs money. Because it's
6:13
Speaker 2: what we talk about all the time. Mahomes, if you
6:16
Speaker 2: bet him as a dog, you're always going to be
6:18
Speaker 2: in it. It doesn't matter if his team is down. What
6:21
Speaker 2: was it to Houston? Chat was it twenty eight to
6:23
Speaker 2: three or twenty one to three? They were down and
6:25
Speaker 2: Mahomes came all the way back against Houston and Watson
6:28
Speaker 2: years ago. It's like it doesn't matter how many points
6:31
Speaker 2: he gets down, He's always going to be in it.
6:33
Speaker 2: So I totally get people's rationale for taking him as
6:36
Speaker 2: a dog and playing it simple. I just I think
6:39
Speaker 2: the Ravens are that legit team and they have the
6:42
Speaker 2: defense that matches up really well with the Chiefs. Like
6:45
Speaker 2: there's only a couple of teams that could match up
6:46
Speaker 2: for what the Chiefs want to do, and the Raiders
6:49
Speaker 2: were one of them. The Raiders were incredible playing against
6:52
Speaker 2: Mahomes and matchup well against But I think the same
6:54
Speaker 2: thing here with the Ravens, Like the more I break down,
6:56
Speaker 2: there's Ravens defense on tape. I mean you talked about
6:59
Speaker 2: it on Sunny, like having the linebackers, for having Patrick
7:02
Speaker 2: Queen back there, you know, having Rokwan Smith. Those are
7:06
Speaker 2: game changers. But then the Kyle Hamilton X factor to
7:08
Speaker 2: me is the difference in this game where it's like
7:10
Speaker 2: they're gonna be able to dictate this whole game by
7:13
Speaker 2: moving him around and positioning him in different spots, either
7:15
Speaker 2: bringing him in as a blitzer, having him cover Travis Kelcey,
7:19
Speaker 2: like it's all lined up there, where the Bills just
7:22
Speaker 2: did not have that. The Bills had a fifteen year
7:24
Speaker 2: veteran playing at the linebacker position that was not a starter, right,
7:28
Speaker 2: it was a fifteen year veteran that was like a
7:30
Speaker 2: practice squad kind of guy that he just knew the defense.
7:33
Speaker 2: That's why the Bills had to play in there. So
7:36
Speaker 2: it's really night and day going from that Bill's defense
7:39
Speaker 2: to this this Ravens defense. So we already know all
7:43
Speaker 2: the Lamar stuff. I'm just I'm trying to convince not
7:46
Speaker 2: only myself but everyone else that this bet really is
7:49
Speaker 2: about backing this Ravens defense. Like to me, they're they're
7:52
Speaker 2: the game changer in this scenario, not so much. Well,
7:55
Speaker 2: Lamar and that offense is gonna do we know the
7:56
Speaker 2: Lamar and then we're gonna be able to run the
7:57
Speaker 2: ball against his Chiefs defense, like they just can't stop
8:00
Speaker 2: the run. It's really can we get stops? We need
8:02
Speaker 2: stops against Mahomes. Like, if you can't get stops Mahomes
8:07
Speaker 2: and Andy Reith, I'll just play the clock, right, they
8:09
Speaker 2: know that. Okay, if you guys are up three or
8:11
Speaker 2: if we're down by three, you know, here with two
8:15
Speaker 2: minutes to go, we have faith in Mahomes to drive
8:18
Speaker 2: the field and either tie this game or get us
8:19
Speaker 2: the win. So that's the fear here is We're backing
8:22
Speaker 2: a big favorite, I mean not that big, but pretty
8:25
Speaker 2: big against Mahomes. And you know that if Mahomes has
8:28
Speaker 2: the ball last, I mean, you're gonna be white as help.
8:30
Speaker 2: We're gonna be so scared that Mahomes is about to
8:33
Speaker 2: do it to us again. But I'm just stressing the
8:35
Speaker 2: number here.
8:36
Speaker 1: Hold on number one. I've never seen you more anxious
8:45
Speaker 1: about a bet like I know this one is scaring
8:49
Speaker 1: you a little bit. I know you feel strongly about it.
8:53
Speaker 1: I can feel it in like the way you're talking
8:55
Speaker 1: about the game and the way you're laying out the to.
9:00
Speaker 2: Be on Mahomes. I actually want to bet on Mahomes. Yeah,
9:02
Speaker 2: I know it sucks.
9:04
Speaker 1: Well, look this is this is We're just trying to
9:09
Speaker 1: get off the wave before it crashes, right, And I'll
9:13
Speaker 1: be honest, I have not bet this game yet. I
9:16
Speaker 1: am so on the fence about this game, and because
9:22
Speaker 1: I am desperately afraid of Patrick Mahomes at anything more
9:27
Speaker 1: than a field goal. And this is the classic rock
9:30
Speaker 1: and a hard Place, right. Lamar Jackson last weekend accepted
9:38
Speaker 1: as a fave of three and a half or more
9:41
Speaker 1: forty two percent against the spread, one hundred and seventy
9:44
Speaker 1: four of one hundred and eighty one, one hundred and
9:48
Speaker 1: seventy fourth of one hundred and eighty one quarterbacks against
9:51
Speaker 1: the spread the past twenty years when he is a
9:54
Speaker 1: favorite of three or more. But he dominated the Texans
9:59
Speaker 1: as a huge, huge fave, we were betting against it.
10:02
Speaker 1: So has he gotten over the hump? Was it just
10:05
Speaker 1: the right spot? Will he revert back to his old ways? Meanwhile, Mahomes,
10:09
Speaker 1: we were convinced last weekend was the time, except for
10:14
Speaker 1: those pesky linebacker situations right where the Chiefs might be
10:18
Speaker 1: the strongest. We were convinced Mahomes was going to lose
10:24
Speaker 1: that game and he was not going to cover. He's
10:27
Speaker 1: now been an underdog in eleven games, including the postseason,
10:31
Speaker 1: eight and three straight up nine to one to one
10:33
Speaker 1: against the spread, two and zero in the playoffs. Like,
10:36
Speaker 1: there is nothing scarier as a better than being a
10:41
Speaker 1: we're gonna get to the defense. I got a lot
10:42
Speaker 1: to say about the Ravens defense. There's nothing scarier as
10:46
Speaker 1: a better than being against Patrick Mahomes and seeing him
10:52
Speaker 1: step up in the pocket and not being able to
10:56
Speaker 1: know exactly what's going to happen next, you know what
10:59
Speaker 1: I mean.
11:00
Speaker 2: No, he's he's the best I pocket quarterback we've ever
11:04
Speaker 2: seen like that. I think I saw some staff from
11:07
Speaker 2: somebody that he's had three straight games now of no
11:10
Speaker 2: sacks and no interceptions. Like he's just he's on another
11:13
Speaker 2: level right now. And even when the Bills did make
11:16
Speaker 2: the right call and the right blitz package, he would
11:20
Speaker 2: just so nonchalantly see it coming, step up in the
11:23
Speaker 2: pocket and just get out of there. It's like incredible,
11:27
Speaker 2: how how well he's been playing. Evan had another amazing
11:30
Speaker 2: stat on Sunday Night Show that he has been down
11:36
Speaker 2: by seven plus points like ten times in the playoffs
11:40
Speaker 2: and he's eight and two in those games, the only
11:43
Speaker 2: two losses whereas against Tom Brady. So it's like every
11:47
Speaker 2: little stat, every metric we go through is basically telling
11:51
Speaker 2: us don't be an idiot and don't bet against this guy.
11:55
Speaker 2: But it's just I have to trust the numbers. It's
11:58
Speaker 2: like it's so full to do, but I gotta do it.
12:02
Speaker 2: And you just said it right where It's like when
12:06
Speaker 2: is the peak here for this Chiefs team? Like they're
12:10
Speaker 2: playing so far above what they should be doing. Right,
12:13
Speaker 2: we know who this team is, We've saw them all season,
12:15
Speaker 2: how they've struggled. But this Mahomes and the playoffs, it
12:18
Speaker 2: is just different, right, Like we talk all the time,
12:20
Speaker 2: it is different in the playoffs. He's just been incredible.
12:24
Speaker 2: So like, like again you say we're gonna break down
12:27
Speaker 2: this Ravens team and their defense, it really is what
12:30
Speaker 2: I'm all in on. It's like I really have to
12:32
Speaker 2: do believe in this defense and the adjustments they can
12:34
Speaker 2: make because that's what's gonna win this game. As much
12:37
Speaker 2: I want to say it's all about Lamar, I feel
12:39
Speaker 2: like we all know Lamar is gonna get his Like
12:41
Speaker 2: I can't see Lamar being held under seventeen points in
12:44
Speaker 2: this game, right. It feels like at minimum he's gonna
12:46
Speaker 2: get us seventeen to twenty points in this game. Like
12:48
Speaker 2: their offense is so high powered. Even if he struggles
12:51
Speaker 2: in the very beginning with Jitters, I believe they will
12:54
Speaker 2: make the adjustments to be able to figure out the
12:55
Speaker 2: second half. It's really about the defense, Like can the
12:58
Speaker 2: defense make the adjustments to get stops against Mahomes Because
13:02
Speaker 2: we just said it, Mahomes his last three playoff games,
13:06
Speaker 2: zero interception, zero sacks. You won't lose like and let
13:10
Speaker 2: you have to get hits on him. You have to
13:12
Speaker 2: make him uncomfortable, like we saw in that Tampa Bay
13:14
Speaker 2: super Bowl. That's how you beat the guy. You have
13:16
Speaker 2: to get hits on myhome. You have to make him uncomfortable.
13:19
Speaker 2: If you're getting zero pressure, it's over. We're dead. So yeah,
13:24
Speaker 2: we're bending a lot of money on Cayle van Noy
13:26
Speaker 2: getting to the quarterback here, but they've been doing it
13:29
Speaker 2: all season, like the Ravens have done it all season
13:31
Speaker 2: with these random guys on that D line. So I'm
13:33
Speaker 2: gonna keep trusting that.
13:35
Speaker 1: Zero deception, zero sacks, averaging about thirty points a game.
13:40
Speaker 1: And he's got six touchdowns in the last three playoff games,
13:44
Speaker 1: including the Super Bowl against the Eagles. The first quarterback
13:48
Speaker 1: since the merger was zero ionts and zero sacks and
13:50
Speaker 1: three straight playoff games. Here's what worries me. We're saying
13:54
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are not the same team they've always been,
13:56
Speaker 1: But is it possible that they've gotten better The receivers
14:01
Speaker 1: have gotten a little bit better, that Isaiah Picheco has
14:05
Speaker 1: gotten a little bit better over the course of the season,
14:08
Speaker 1: and so a lot of times when we are talking
14:10
Speaker 1: about stats, we are talking about these things. We're talking
14:13
Speaker 1: about over the length of a season, and not exactly
14:16
Speaker 1: talking about what the team is in a sample size
14:20
Speaker 1: to say four or five games, when they've gotten significantly better,
14:25
Speaker 1: they've instituted new schemes, they've incorporated new people, and then
14:30
Speaker 1: you've got Patrick Mahomes playing with more confidence. That is
14:35
Speaker 1: truly frightening. And I know, I know, like, I know
14:39
Speaker 1: what you're gonna say, and so I'm not going to
14:41
Speaker 1: ask you to just keep saying like, yeah.
14:44
Speaker 2: About the say chat, you have no idea? What about
14:46
Speaker 2: this stuff?
14:47
Speaker 1: Okay, go ahead and say it.
14:49
Speaker 2: No, I was about to go on a whole tangible
14:50
Speaker 2: conspiracy theories with Taylor Swift and then getting fifty million
14:54
Speaker 2: views in that Chiefs Bills game where it's like, you know,
14:56
Speaker 2: how many people watched the World Series in total War
15:00
Speaker 2: Series at five games, Chad, you know many people in
15:02
Speaker 2: total watch the World Series?
15:03
Speaker 1: I believe it was it was about fifty million, because
15:06
Speaker 1: I think the ratings, the ratings, I think I think
15:09
Speaker 1: it was like an average of nine to ten million
15:11
Speaker 1: or something like that.
15:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think it was forty three million in
15:14
Speaker 2: total watch the World Series, so five games and NFL
15:17
Speaker 2: got it in one game. So just all of the
15:20
Speaker 2: points to why would the NFL not want Mahomes to
15:22
Speaker 2: keep this going? It's definitely something I'm weary of. But again,
15:25
Speaker 2: it's like I gotta trust the sports books right like
15:28
Speaker 2: three and a half. It's so tempting. I'm trying so
15:31
Speaker 2: hard not to be a sucker and take the three
15:33
Speaker 2: and a half with Mahomes. But I get it, Like
15:35
Speaker 2: I'll get why people are bullying me, talking shit to me.
15:37
Speaker 2: It's just like you're overthinking this way too much. Just
15:40
Speaker 2: take Mahomes of the dog. I totally get it, Like
15:43
Speaker 2: you know what, I love betting trends, but I just
15:45
Speaker 2: I can't do it. I just I'm convinced that this
15:48
Speaker 2: Ravens is the better team, more complete team. But Chad
15:52
Speaker 2: nailed it. Like the fear here is Mahomes takes it
15:54
Speaker 2: to another level in the playoffs. We've only seen one
15:57
Speaker 2: half of them. Are do that now? I was last
15:59
Speaker 2: week that was Lamar's best week I've ever seen him
16:02
Speaker 2: have in the playoffs? Is that real? Can he keep
16:05
Speaker 2: that going? Was that just a flash? In the pin.
16:07
Speaker 2: That to me is my biggest fear right now, Benny,
16:09
Speaker 2: on this Ravens.
16:10
Speaker 1: Team strength against strength. These were the two teams with
16:14
Speaker 1: the most sacks in the NFL. Mahomes was sacked the
16:18
Speaker 1: second fewest times in the NFL, only in front of
16:23
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. Meanwhile, Lamar is the ultimate frustration. Who will
16:29
Speaker 1: that ability to neutralize the pass rush benefit most? But
16:35
Speaker 1: here's what I'm talking about with Mahomes. One of the
16:38
Speaker 1: lowest percentages of bad throws in the NFL this year,
16:43
Speaker 1: but the highest percentage of drops, most drops by receivers lately.
16:48
Speaker 1: The only guy dropping balls for the Chiefs Travis Kelsey.
16:52
Speaker 1: So if the pass rush ends up being even, the
16:57
Speaker 1: quarterbacks are relatively even one hundred percent. Agree with you
17:02
Speaker 1: about Kyle Hamilton. I think he's a game wrecker and
17:04
Speaker 1: a game changer. Put him anywhere, let him do anything.
17:08
Speaker 1: We did the favorite film room about Kyle Hamilton before
17:12
Speaker 1: the last week of the NFL season. We showed him blitzing,
17:17
Speaker 1: We showed him in coverage. We showed him blitzing, getting
17:21
Speaker 1: knocked down, getting pancaked, getting back up, running into coverage,
17:25
Speaker 1: getting an interception. The guy can do it all. He
17:28
Speaker 1: can one hundred percent do it all. Here's where I
17:31
Speaker 1: think this game might come down to, and where I
17:34
Speaker 1: do think you're on the right side of it. The
17:38
Speaker 1: Ravens rushing game is dominant. Most yards per rush before contact,
17:42
Speaker 1: most rush yards overall, third, most broken tackles. The Chiefs
17:48
Speaker 1: rush defense is the worst part of their team. Great
17:52
Speaker 1: pass defense, great offensive line, great quarterback, their rush defense
17:57
Speaker 1: is not very good. Josh Allen had seventy two yards
18:01
Speaker 1: to two touchdowns. The Bills ran for one hundred and
18:03
Speaker 1: eighty three yards. They averaged nearly five yards per carry. Like,
18:07
Speaker 1: what is Lamar going to do against this team?
18:10
Speaker 2: No, it's and that's why I can't get past. It's
18:13
Speaker 2: like all the matchups are perfect for this Ravens team,
18:17
Speaker 2: Like this is I mean, they probably they probably think
18:21
Speaker 2: they wanted the Bills, they rather have played the Bills,
18:23
Speaker 2: but it's like this, this is the matchup they wanted.
18:25
Speaker 2: Like they match up so well offensively against this Chiefs team.
18:28
Speaker 2: What they want to do defensively, it just will we mean,
18:32
Speaker 2: you talked about which we'll talk about it again on Thursday.
18:34
Speaker 2: It's like the Mahomes factor is just terrifying, Like everything
18:38
Speaker 2: about it. All of his numbers are just so scary.
18:41
Speaker 2: It just feels like that's why I wanted people to
18:44
Speaker 2: get the three honestly, just because the back door it's
18:47
Speaker 2: always going to be open, Like unless you really blow
18:49
Speaker 2: him out, he's always gonna have a chance to get
18:51
Speaker 2: this back door. And that's the fear of going against him.
18:53
Speaker 2: But yeah, it's just I feel like it's a bad bet.
18:58
Speaker 2: You're betting Mahomes on active back road games against one
19:02
Speaker 2: of the best defenses we've seen this season. Like the
19:05
Speaker 2: Ravens really would have to lay down on lay and
19:07
Speaker 2: egg a total egg for them to lose this game.
19:08
Speaker 2: It's just that's that's the fear here is you know
19:13
Speaker 2: that it's just the pressure will be too much of
19:15
Speaker 2: the Ravens tm the laying egg, just because on paper,
19:18
Speaker 2: I dude, just think there's some there's such a better team.
19:20
Speaker 2: Like I said, I have this at minus four. I
19:22
Speaker 2: clearly think they're a better team, the Ravens. It's just
19:24
Speaker 2: like Chad lead it all out. Like this Mahomes run
19:27
Speaker 2: he's been on, especially these last three games of the
19:30
Speaker 2: no Sackson interceptions, It's just like the guy is in
19:33
Speaker 2: a different zone. Right now. But my pushback would be
19:36
Speaker 2: he hasn't played a real defense in those those games.
19:40
Speaker 2: Like that Miami defense had a bunch of injuries. They
19:43
Speaker 2: weren't that good. Same goes for the Bills. They had
19:46
Speaker 2: a bunch of injuries they couldn't overcome. You're not getting
19:49
Speaker 2: that here with the Ravens. This is the Ravens, fully good,
19:51
Speaker 2: good to go. They got all their dogs, they're they're healthy,
19:54
Speaker 2: they're ready to go. And it's just like, that's what
19:57
Speaker 2: I'm banking on, is that Mahomes has gone f off
20:00
Speaker 2: playing these weak defenses and now he's running into a
20:02
Speaker 2: real but behemoth. You know this this Ravens team, we
20:06
Speaker 2: saw them against that foreign arison the same reason we
20:08
Speaker 2: love them against forn Ara's team. It's like they have
20:10
Speaker 2: the pieces to shut down all the talent that Ford
20:13
Speaker 2: Anders had. Think about how much more talent they have
20:16
Speaker 2: than this this Chiefs team. It's just like night and day.
20:19
Speaker 2: So it really all comes down to my Homes. It's like,
20:22
Speaker 2: what scheme can they run to make Mahomes uncomfortable? And
20:25
Speaker 2: I believe they'll be able to do it. It's like
20:27
Speaker 2: they know what they need to do here. It's all
20:29
Speaker 2: about making Mahmes uncomfortable. And that's that really starts with
20:32
Speaker 2: when I talked about Kyle Hamilton, like they have to
20:34
Speaker 2: either be bringing them on the blitz the sky is
20:37
Speaker 2: in the blitz with him, or having him drop back
20:38
Speaker 2: with Kelsey. It's like they just have to keep giving
20:40
Speaker 2: him crazy looks, keep my Homes uncomfortable, where the Bills
20:44
Speaker 2: did not do that, and he got He easily got
20:46
Speaker 2: into a rhythm in that first quarter and it carried
20:48
Speaker 2: him throughout the whole game. He just was always in
20:50
Speaker 2: a rhythm. They're either kicking a field goal or getting
20:52
Speaker 2: a touchdown, and like the Ravens can't do that. They
20:55
Speaker 2: neither get either get an early three and out. And
20:57
Speaker 2: then like you just talked about, need to run the
20:58
Speaker 2: ball for a whole they just need to have Mahomes
21:01
Speaker 2: off the field and be uncomfortable, never get in a rhythm.
21:03
Speaker 2: And that really is a cryptonite to how you beat
21:06
Speaker 2: this team. I mean, we can go back and watch
21:08
Speaker 2: that Raiders film a couple weeks ago when the Raiders
21:11
Speaker 2: you know, kind of only through one pass that for
21:12
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. That's what they did. They literally just
21:15
Speaker 2: ran the ball, ball, controlled the clock and Mahmes is uncomfortable.
21:18
Speaker 2: I think Mahomes threw two picks in that game. It's like,
21:21
Speaker 2: that's how you beat them. You keep them on the bench,
21:23
Speaker 2: you never let them get in a rhythm, and the
21:25
Speaker 2: Rams are built perfectly to do that.
21:27
Speaker 1: Two other x factors in this game that I don't
21:31
Speaker 1: think we can say existed in games that the Chiefs
21:37
Speaker 1: have won recently, going back to the Super Bowl and
21:41
Speaker 1: in these two playoff games. I don't see either coach
21:47
Speaker 1: getting tight or anxious. I don't see John Harbaugh getting
21:50
Speaker 1: tight or anxious with play calling and making mistakes the
21:55
Speaker 1: way other coaches have against Patrick Mahomes. I do think
21:58
Speaker 1: there is a factor there where coaches, you know, press
22:02
Speaker 1: a little bit because they don't know how many chances
22:04
Speaker 1: they're gonna get. They feel like Patrick Mahomes is going
22:07
Speaker 1: to score on every drive, so they need to take
22:09
Speaker 1: advantage of every drive. I don't see John Harbaugh getting
22:13
Speaker 1: tight in this game.
22:14
Speaker 2: And I do think, really I think, I honestly think
22:18
Speaker 2: if he if they lost this game they get blown
22:20
Speaker 2: out or something, I feel like there will be conversation
22:22
Speaker 2: in the front office. It's like, is this is this
22:25
Speaker 2: the guy? I mean he's been there for what fifteen
22:27
Speaker 2: to sixteen years. I don't know we have a thing
22:31
Speaker 2: when Vrabel's out there, when Belichick's out there, I feel
22:34
Speaker 2: like and any coach could be made available at this point.
22:37
Speaker 2: But I get you're coming from but I definitely think
22:40
Speaker 2: he feels way more pressure than Andy Reid big Red does, right, Andy, Well,
22:43
Speaker 2: of course he's playing with house money.
22:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean compared to Sean McDermott, who I
22:50
Speaker 1: just think John Harbaugh is a better coach. He's more calculating,
22:53
Speaker 1: and he's he's not he's not afraid to put his
22:58
Speaker 1: defense back on the field, and the Dermott was clearly
23:01
Speaker 1: afraid to put his defense back on the field, right,
23:03
Speaker 1: And so I don't see him getting tight in this game. Also,
23:07
Speaker 1: Ravens have great special teams, and I think that's something
23:10
Speaker 1: to consider as being important in this game. Simon, you're
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Speaker 1: fifty percent off. All right, so let's set the table
24:30
Speaker 1: on Detroit and San Francisco here. San Francisco is basically
24:34
Speaker 1: settled in as a seven point favorite. Since two thousand,
24:38
Speaker 1: there have been eighteen conference title games with a spread
24:40
Speaker 1: of six or higher. Five of those eighteen dogs went outright,
24:44
Speaker 1: the last one the Bengals over the Chiefs two years
24:46
Speaker 1: ago is seven point dogs. Prior to that, the big
24:50
Speaker 1: favorites had won nine of the ten last ten straight up.
24:53
Speaker 1: Very few big conference title games have outright upsets, So
25:01
Speaker 1: you know, I feel like you really like the Lions here,
25:07
Speaker 1: and I am waiting on confirmation for Deebo Samuel before
25:13
Speaker 1: I go all in on the Niners. If Deebo Samuel plays,
25:18
Speaker 1: does it change your opinion?
25:20
Speaker 2: No, I don't think it matters to me, But I
25:24
Speaker 2: guess what you're saying.
25:24
Speaker 1: Though.
25:25
Speaker 2: The trends obviously say it's a big deal of Debo's
25:27
Speaker 2: in this offense, but Auk's been so good this year
25:30
Speaker 2: and so it's kiddled. It's like they'll be able to
25:33
Speaker 2: figure it out, right, Like, Debo can't be that big
25:36
Speaker 2: of a deal my guy who only gets four to
25:38
Speaker 2: five touches a game, But like you said, the stats
25:42
Speaker 2: say he is pretty important to that team and they're
25:44
Speaker 2: different when he's on the field. It's like, well, that
25:46
Speaker 2: makes sense. Deebo's on the best receivers on football, So
25:49
Speaker 2: I get while you're worried about it, But I saw
25:51
Speaker 2: Sheefterd tweeted out that he's fifty to fifty to play.
25:55
Speaker 2: That means he's like seventy five.
25:56
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, listen, I am checking Deebo's status reports more
26:01
Speaker 1: frequently than I checked the status of my kids five
26:03
Speaker 1: twenty nine. Like I am, I am all over the
26:07
Speaker 1: internet machine looking for updates. And yeah, fifty to fifty
26:10
Speaker 1: the X rays were negative. He's ripped in his head
26:12
Speaker 1: above his arm above his head. I can't even do
26:15
Speaker 1: that with my shoulder. Like, I feel like he's gonna play.
26:19
Speaker 2: Yeah. When I saw that he was fifty to fifty
26:20
Speaker 2: from chef y, I was like, oh, okay, that means
26:22
Speaker 2: he's seventy five percent chance he's gonna play. Like if
26:26
Speaker 2: he's fifty to fifty this early, that that's a high
26:28
Speaker 2: percent of chance he's gonna play. So yeah, yeah, if
26:31
Speaker 2: you're if you're back in that, I feel pretty good.
26:33
Speaker 2: I mean, you obviously got the best of the number
26:35
Speaker 2: of the six and a half. It's moved to seven
26:37
Speaker 2: now and it's just staying at the seven. If Chad's
26:41
Speaker 2: right and the books value Debo like he does, it
26:44
Speaker 2: could drop half a point. If debo is ruled out,
26:46
Speaker 2: this could drop back down the six and a half.
26:48
Speaker 2: But I still I just cannot see this get in
26:51
Speaker 2: the seven and a half unless they really need lines money.
26:55
Speaker 2: That's when I'll get the seven and a half. The
26:56
Speaker 2: books are really feeling and balanced. But this is the
27:01
Speaker 2: these these ones are always harder to play because the
27:02
Speaker 2: biggest slide ability every sports book guy had talked to
27:05
Speaker 2: right now, every you know, every book their biggest liability
27:08
Speaker 2: right now are the forty nine ers futures. Right it
27:10
Speaker 2: was the Bills. The Bills was the one they needed
27:12
Speaker 2: killed that was killed. Now it's a forty nine ers,
27:14
Speaker 2: Like that's their biggest liability super future wise, So it's
27:18
Speaker 2: it's pretty interesting where they They probably made this line
27:21
Speaker 2: what it is because of that, right, Like to take
27:23
Speaker 2: a little bit of the money on the other side.
27:25
Speaker 2: I believe in the app it was like seventy five
27:27
Speaker 2: percent of the bets, sixty seven percent of the money
27:30
Speaker 2: was on the lines money line. So clearly a ton
27:33
Speaker 2: of money's coming in the Lions money line at this point.
27:35
Speaker 2: But if we're just looking at excellent exces and o's,
27:40
Speaker 2: I love the matchup for the Lions offense. Like everything
27:43
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers can do well, they have a
27:46
Speaker 2: piece to counterrate like they have. They have two different
27:49
Speaker 2: running back styles they can counter to whatever type of
27:51
Speaker 2: run defense the forty nine trying to play, and the
27:55
Speaker 2: fact of the porta he's come back from that d
27:57
Speaker 2: knee injury, and you know, even last week he would
28:00
Speaker 2: take these really rough hits and get up limping a
28:02
Speaker 2: little bit. You know, five six plays later, I'd seen
28:05
Speaker 2: him running full speed downfield. It's just like the guys
28:08
Speaker 2: are freak Like he's got a bang up knee and
28:10
Speaker 2: he's just playing through it. He to me, is gonna
28:13
Speaker 2: be the big difference here where I don't think they
28:15
Speaker 2: have a guy that can cover him like they can't.
28:18
Speaker 2: They can't use Fred Warner to cover him because they
28:20
Speaker 2: need Fred in the middle covering these two running backs.
28:22
Speaker 2: So there's just a bunch of different looks they can
28:24
Speaker 2: use to go against this team that I think about
28:27
Speaker 2: to keep it close. But the fear here is just
28:30
Speaker 2: the Lion's defense, like if Perdy, if Perdy's got it
28:33
Speaker 2: going and Kyle Shanan's in his bag. And we'd always
28:36
Speaker 2: talked about his first thirty forty scripted plays. Those those
28:40
Speaker 2: plays were shit against green Bay, right, green Bay really
28:43
Speaker 2: were prepared to stop those plays.
28:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, but don't forget, don't forget again those plays included
28:50
Speaker 1: Deebo Samuel. The first three plays, green Bay had no
28:54
Speaker 1: answer for McCaffrey long run, Yeah, Debo long run, Deebo
29:00
Speaker 1: long pass, and then he's out like they were marching,
29:05
Speaker 1: and that's.
29:06
Speaker 2: You're looking at here where it's just like the Lions.
29:09
Speaker 2: I feel the same about the Green Bay. Like Green
29:10
Speaker 2: Bay the reason we like the fornounce like the Green
29:13
Speaker 2: Bay is never gonna be able to get stops, Like
29:14
Speaker 2: they don't have the guys that get stops, and that
29:16
Speaker 2: that's my fear here with the Lions team. It's like
29:19
Speaker 2: the Lions really don't have the guys that get stops,
29:21
Speaker 2: like they're big X factor on their defenses. You know
29:25
Speaker 2: what is he a second year player at this point,
29:28
Speaker 2: it's just again, I love Unchon, I love their pass rush,
29:32
Speaker 2: but it's like I'm just I'm a little worried about
29:35
Speaker 2: this Detroit defense and getting stops, but I have such
29:38
Speaker 2: confidence in their offense right now. It's like at seven,
29:41
Speaker 2: at seven points, I have to take it. And you know,
29:44
Speaker 2: I think man Mitchell gave it to us where he
29:46
Speaker 2: came on here about that stat like the Bengals are
29:48
Speaker 2: the last team to win outright as a big dog,
29:52
Speaker 2: Like it's tough for me to tell you to take
29:54
Speaker 2: this line's money line, but I do think they're a
29:56
Speaker 2: live dog. Like we saw a brock Purty had a
30:00
Speaker 2: little bit of the deer in headlight looks last week, right,
30:02
Speaker 2: and he did pull it out at the end of
30:04
Speaker 2: that game, Like he made that drive and that's the four. No.
30:06
Speaker 2: I should be feeling good about him, but it's just like,
30:09
Speaker 2: this isn't my homes, this isn't Lamar, right, this is like,
30:12
Speaker 2: this is what we talk about with a game manager,
30:16
Speaker 2: Like this is why he was a late round pick.
30:18
Speaker 2: He does have some weaknesses that teams can't exploit. It's
30:22
Speaker 2: all about can you beat Shanahan, Like when Shanahan's system's clicking,
30:26
Speaker 2: and like Chad said, when Debo is in there, it's
30:29
Speaker 2: really hard to get stops. There's just so many weapons
30:31
Speaker 2: on that team where it's like it really all comes
30:34
Speaker 2: down to party what kind of game he's gonna have.
30:35
Speaker 2: Because I'm looking at weather right now, Chad, it's supposed
30:38
Speaker 2: to be a perfect winter day there in San Francisco.
30:42
Speaker 2: Like we talked about the splits with golf outdoors, this
30:46
Speaker 2: would be as if he's playing indoor game, like there's
30:47
Speaker 2: no weather, it's gonna be a perfect day, perfect Sunday day,
30:50
Speaker 2: or I guess night. I'm really not worried about golf
30:53
Speaker 2: being outdoors here. It's really my fear is this Lion's defense,
30:58
Speaker 2: Like I'm just I am scared. I'm gonna, you know,
31:01
Speaker 2: roll over. It's gonna be twenty one to seven. And
31:03
Speaker 2: it's just like, well, that was a dumb bet, like
31:06
Speaker 2: I should have known better going against this forty nine
31:07
Speaker 2: Ers defense, with this Lion's defense. But I just right now,
31:12
Speaker 2: I believe in golf in this line's all offense where
31:14
Speaker 2: it's like they got all their pieces, you know. I
31:19
Speaker 2: know they had a couple injuries to their offensive line,
31:20
Speaker 2: which obviously is a big deal going against one of
31:23
Speaker 2: the best best front fours on all football with a
31:25
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers have, But it's just like when you
31:28
Speaker 2: look at on paper, it's pretty incredible how good this
31:32
Speaker 2: Lions teams perform this year. And once again I'll go
31:35
Speaker 2: back to my notes. They have struggled against really good
31:40
Speaker 2: defenses this year, and we saw when they went to
31:43
Speaker 2: play that Ravens team they were dominated and golf could
31:47
Speaker 2: not move the ball. But I just I think it's
31:50
Speaker 2: gonna be different, especially when we talk in Campbell right,
31:53
Speaker 2: like he knows our seven point dog. Even in the
31:56
Speaker 2: second half or the first half, it feels like, if
31:59
Speaker 2: it's the second quarter, they're on their own forty and
32:02
Speaker 2: they have three yards to gain, I feel like Campbell's
32:04
Speaker 2: gonna go for it, Chad, Like I feel like he's
32:06
Speaker 2: gonna lay it all out there and just really go
32:09
Speaker 2: for it and put pedal to the medal. So that's
32:11
Speaker 2: another reason it's gonna be confidence taking this big number
32:14
Speaker 2: in the seven where it's like I just feel like,
32:16
Speaker 2: even if we're out of it, he's just gonna keep going.
32:19
Speaker 2: Where the same thing we thought with the Bucks last week,
32:21
Speaker 2: where it's like even when the Bucks were down by fourteen,
32:24
Speaker 2: I think you felt the same way, where it's like
32:25
Speaker 2: I feel like they're still going to score here, Like
32:27
Speaker 2: I feel like they're still be able to get the
32:28
Speaker 2: ball downfield and it's gonna come down to a two
32:30
Speaker 2: point there. It's probably gonna come down to another two
32:32
Speaker 2: pointer if you're backing this big dog here where it's like,
32:35
Speaker 2: you know, Campbell gets that touchdown, he's not kicking the
32:37
Speaker 2: extra point. We're not getting a push here. He's definitely
32:39
Speaker 2: gonna go for the two. So it's interesting they move
32:43
Speaker 2: this number all way up to seven. I think it's
32:46
Speaker 2: not only protect against futures, but it's like, you know,
32:49
Speaker 2: the public, they're gonna come in and hammer this forty
32:51
Speaker 2: nine Ers team. They're on paper, they're clearly the better team.
32:54
Speaker 2: It's just the between the storyline, the fact that Goff
32:57
Speaker 2: has been to a super Bowl, the fact that Campbell
33:00
Speaker 2: takes his higher risk, like he's just willing to go
33:02
Speaker 2: for all these sport downs. I just I have to
33:05
Speaker 2: take the plus seven on this Lion's team.
33:09
Speaker 1: Campbell going for it that frequently also potentially plays into
33:16
Speaker 1: the idea of the Niners covering right, because he may
33:20
Speaker 1: go for it in those scenarios that you talked about.
33:23
Speaker 1: It's the Detroit side of the field, the forty five
33:27
Speaker 1: yard line. Early in the third quarter, he decides they're
33:31
Speaker 1: going to go for it. All of a sudden, the
33:33
Speaker 1: Nines are. The Niners go from up seven to fourteen
33:36
Speaker 1: because the lines don't know.
33:38
Speaker 2: They can usually roll them right, we roll them.
33:41
Speaker 1: The variants in this yes very like to me. There's
33:46
Speaker 1: not as much variance in the Ravens Chiefs. This could
33:50
Speaker 1: be this could be fifty two to seven, it could
33:54
Speaker 1: be fifty two to forty nine. And what's interesting to me,
33:59
Speaker 1: there's two things on both sides of the battles.
34:02
Speaker 2: Lines fans get upset. I can see the lines blowing
34:04
Speaker 2: out the other side too, like we can see Parady
34:07
Speaker 2: having a day from hell and then blowing out as well.
34:09
Speaker 2: But like Chad's right, like we could easily be down
34:13
Speaker 2: fifteen to seven Vender in the fourth quarter, no one
34:15
Speaker 2: would be shocked where it's like, yeah, well that's when
34:17
Speaker 2: you live and die, going for a fourth down in
34:19
Speaker 2: your own twenty Like it's just Campbell is that kind
34:21
Speaker 2: of guy?
34:22
Speaker 1: Yeah? I think that there's two interesting elements here. Defensively
34:27
Speaker 1: for both teams. The Niners gift is getting to the quarterback
34:30
Speaker 1: without blitzing. Third lowest blitz rate, fourth fewest blitzes in
34:33
Speaker 1: the NFL this year, but ninth most in sacks right,
34:37
Speaker 1: so they do not need to bring extra pressure in
34:41
Speaker 1: order to get to Jared Goff, which means they can
34:44
Speaker 1: have a lot of help in the secondary, defending against
34:48
Speaker 1: someone like Sam Laporta defending against aman Ra Saint Brown,
34:53
Speaker 1: defending deep against Jameson Williams like they can have the
34:56
Speaker 1: support they need, and they've played a lot better in
35:00
Speaker 1: the defensive backfield this year than they have in years past.
35:03
Speaker 1: Steve Wolkes has focused on the defensive backfield in ways
35:07
Speaker 1: that Deamico Ryans and Robert Sala hasn't done because they
35:11
Speaker 1: were so focused on that front seven right, Number one,
35:15
Speaker 1: Number two Detroit's defense. You mentioned it that passing defense
35:23
Speaker 1: isn't just bad. They're great at pressuring. They don't get
35:26
Speaker 1: to the quarterback very much. A lot of QB pressures.
35:31
Speaker 1: Ninth most yards after the catch this season, fifth most
35:37
Speaker 1: missed tackles. I'll say it again, Deebo Samuel. What does
35:42
Speaker 1: he do? He breaks tackles, he gets yards after the catch.
35:47
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey second most yards after contact in the NFL
35:54
Speaker 1: this season. Like this offense is Taylor made to destroy
36:02
Speaker 1: and take advantage of what this Detroit defense is terrible
36:07
Speaker 1: at terrible if Deebo Samuel's played.
36:13
Speaker 2: But it's we already saw this match with the Rams, though,
36:16
Speaker 2: and the counter to that is Detroit they'll make you
36:19
Speaker 2: pay for every catch you can get, right, They're gonna
36:22
Speaker 2: beat their shit out of you. And that's really their mentality.
36:24
Speaker 2: It's like, we know we're not that good, and the
36:26
Speaker 2: guys are gonna get theirs. Every time they touch the ball,
36:29
Speaker 2: they're gonna pay for it. And it's worked. Like even
36:32
Speaker 2: against that Buckskin, you saw a couple of alligator arms, right,
36:35
Speaker 2: a couple of guys, yeah, going to catch the ball
36:37
Speaker 2: and they pull in because they know they're about to
36:39
Speaker 2: get it leveled. And like that's just how Detroit's playing
36:41
Speaker 2: right now, which I love because they just know they
36:43
Speaker 2: don't have the talent. And it's like in football, when
36:46
Speaker 2: you don't have the talent, you can do the other
36:48
Speaker 2: side of football, which is making it ugly and dirty
36:50
Speaker 2: and money, which is a reason a lot of us
36:52
Speaker 2: love football. It's like that's the game at its core.
36:55
Speaker 2: It's a physical game and you can wear out teams
36:58
Speaker 2: playing that way. And see goes for this foreigners team,
37:03
Speaker 2: like Chad just said it, it's like if their offenses humming,
37:06
Speaker 2: it's over. Like the Lions, they need turnovers. There's a
37:10
Speaker 2: lot of things their defense needs at the forty Niners,
37:12
Speaker 2: like you just said, don't need. And that's why they
37:14
Speaker 2: are such a big favorite, right that's they deserve to
37:16
Speaker 2: be this big of a favor because of all the
37:18
Speaker 2: things we just talked about. But it's just when I
37:22
Speaker 2: break it down, it's like there's so many things they
37:25
Speaker 2: can do to attack this forty Niners defense that will
37:27
Speaker 2: be available. But you're exactly right, Like Chase Young probably
37:31
Speaker 2: one of the best ads. I mean him and Sweat,
37:34
Speaker 2: like both those guys that left Washington have been dominant
37:37
Speaker 2: in their new homes. Like he's been really played great
37:40
Speaker 2: for them since he's joined them in this foreign iris team,
37:42
Speaker 2: like him and Bosa having that Ohio state connection. It's
37:45
Speaker 2: clearly worked, right, like they always stoke one guy gets
37:47
Speaker 2: a sack of the guys that you know, the other
37:49
Speaker 2: guy being like, all right, now it's your turn, and
37:51
Speaker 2: it's worked, like Chase Young's come there and he's obviously
37:54
Speaker 2: he played much better this year than he had previous
37:56
Speaker 2: seasons with Washington. But he looks like who we thought
37:59
Speaker 2: he was going to be this year, right, He's been
38:01
Speaker 2: great against the pass, solid against the run, like everything
38:04
Speaker 2: they've hoped for when they traded for him. That is
38:06
Speaker 2: a big deal, Like you talked about, the fact that
38:08
Speaker 2: they can get pressure with just their front four is
38:10
Speaker 2: a big deal. But I just look at the back end.
38:14
Speaker 2: Their secondary is not that good for forty nine ers,
38:17
Speaker 2: and they've gotten away with it because of what you
38:19
Speaker 2: just talked about, where they only need a rush for
38:21
Speaker 2: and drop everyone else in the in the coverage. Like
38:23
Speaker 2: that's a big deal for this forty nine ers team.
38:26
Speaker 2: I don't think they can get away with it against
38:28
Speaker 2: this Lion's team that can run the ball down your throat,
38:30
Speaker 2: Like if they're trying to drop guys back, they'll bring
38:32
Speaker 2: Montgomery back in and just run it down your throat
38:34
Speaker 2: and pick up five or six yards per carry. I mean,
38:36
Speaker 2: we've seen them do that multiple times this year. And
38:39
Speaker 2: then what happens if they bring the linebackers back down.
38:42
Speaker 2: They switch in Gibbs who can catch them all on
38:44
Speaker 2: the backfield and as soon as you touched the ball,
38:46
Speaker 2: he's already hit his four to three speed right Like
38:48
Speaker 2: we saw time and time again in that game when
38:50
Speaker 2: they needed someone at the backfield to catch the ball
38:52
Speaker 2: and they make a big play, it's him. Like these
38:54
Speaker 2: rookies they brought in and we talked all year about it,
38:56
Speaker 2: they've just been incredible. So I've seen them be beat
39:00
Speaker 2: by good tight ends before. Now we have arguably the
39:02
Speaker 2: best tight end all football coming in. So there's just
39:05
Speaker 2: a bunch of stuff where it's like I am scared about,
39:08
Speaker 2: which I talked about with this Lions team on the defense,
39:11
Speaker 2: I just can't get past the fact they have all
39:13
Speaker 2: the piece set offense to counter it, like they have
39:15
Speaker 2: the guys to this get these points and keep this
39:18
Speaker 2: game close. So people could already tell obviously I like
39:21
Speaker 2: the over in this game. But yeah, like the Lions,
39:25
Speaker 2: I thought I could be talked out of it, like
39:26
Speaker 2: having a couple of pros reach out to me. But
39:28
Speaker 2: for the most part, it obviously seems like most pros
39:31
Speaker 2: like the Lions here at this big of a number
39:33
Speaker 2: because they think what I think. Where it's like the
39:35
Speaker 2: books are giving us an extra to zero point and
39:37
Speaker 2: a half of value here just because they are so
39:40
Speaker 2: heavily invested right now and all the futures tied to
39:43
Speaker 2: this four nine ers team. So I'm gonna take the
39:45
Speaker 2: free points of value and take the seven, all right.
39:48
Speaker 1: Simon likes the Lions at seven. I already bet the
39:52
Speaker 1: Niners at six and a half have not done anything else.
39:56
Speaker 1: Simon definitely likes the Ravens. I've not done anything on
39:59
Speaker 1: that game yet. It's going to be fascinating to see
40:04
Speaker 1: how the week evolves and how the information coming in
40:09
Speaker 1: makes us feel about doubling down on our bets, buying
40:12
Speaker 1: out of our bets, putting more different numbers, how the
40:15
Speaker 1: markets move. We'll break that down and all of that
40:18
Speaker 1: with sharp Calls on Thursday. Simon. I know it's playoff
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