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The Favorites - MLB Opening Day with Sean Zerillo · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: my Tommy John Holmes Studio.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: I'm joined as always.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: By my co host, my companion, my Campadre, and my
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Hello, So I am in.
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: Hello Chad, But do we have four days until we're
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: in Chicago having drinks? Brother?
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Can't wait, can't freaking wait. It's a great town, my
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: favorite town. I'm going to see a lot of friends
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: when we're there. It's going to be great to get
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: people together. For anyone listening to the show who doesn't
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: know what I'm talking about, I will give you the
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: heads up in a moment, because right now, while folks
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: are talking a lot about March Madness and the Sweet
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: sixteen starting this Thursday, a very chalky Sweet sixteen. This
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Thursday is also an annual write of Spring Baseball's opening
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: day fourteen games, ten uninterrupted hours of Major League Baseball
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: as seven months of America's pastime. Let sports fans and
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: sports gamblers know Spring is truly here. Simon, way back
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: in the day, like when you were when we were
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: just starting to do this show together, our producer Matt
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: Mitchell used to do one of my favorite things in
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: the history of Action Network content. He used to do
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: a video, no joke, I think, every single day from
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: any place he could find in Milwaukee to talk about
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: what he was going to bet on a day baseball
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: game that day.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: It was the most.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Funny, passionate, exciting video that Matt Mitchell could possibly put together.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: It was when he was learning how to do video.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: He's trying to figure out how to make himself so
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: valuable to the Action Network team.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: Matt, do you remember those?
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: I sure do.
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: Sean Zerlo had to provide the picks because no one
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: wants my peck, So I'd get a pick from Sean
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: on every weekday day game. So if there's a day
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: with a weekday day game, I would get on my
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: roof or you know, go to the lake or get
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: on a boat or do something and give out that pack.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: It was great.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: It was great, and I'm glad you mentioned Schanzerla. Matt,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I want you to start doing those videos every day
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: for the next seven months. I think it'd be really
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: fun because you don't have much else going on. It's
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: not like, you know, football season's not happening, so you
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: don't really have anything else happening. You know who's going
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: to be busy for the next seven months. Our guest
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: action network go Gi. He is the engine behind our
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: baseball picks and projections, co hosts of the Wonderful Payoff
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Pitch podcast, a co panelist with me at the recent
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in early March, Hello with
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Seawn Zarrillo.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: What's that brother?
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: Hey you guys doing. I wish Opening Day was on Wednesday.
• 3:15
  Speaker 5: I wish baseball, you know, had some foresight to actually
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: put Opening Day on a day where there's not some
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: Sweet sixteen games going on. God forbid. They gave themselves
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: an advantage and just took advantage of day games during
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: the summer instead of stacking all the games at night,
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: or did anything to separate themselves and give some attention
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: to itself as a sport. So unfortunately, I know you
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: said ten hours of commercial free baseball chat, I'll be
• 3:39
  Speaker 5: flipping back and forth to the Sweet sixteen games, so
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: it won't be commercial free for me or uninterrupted baseball
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: for me. If I'm going to be paying attention to
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: college basketball. I'm sure the average fan, the average sports
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: fan certainly will be too.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: Zarrillo, like I said, he joined me at Sloan this year.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: And for those who don't know, and I can't imagine
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: anyone who listens to the show doesn't know what Sloan is,
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: but it's basically this incredible. I think Bill Simmons called
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: it nerd Apalooza years ago. Was this conference that's been
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: going on for I don't know, fifteen sixteen years at
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: this point, maybe longer, almost twenty years. That happens at Sloan,
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: the Business school at MIT that started there and is
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: now at a convention center in Boston.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: Two days of panels with.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Star studded speakers, all about sports, media, sports team sports management,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: how to win at betting, how to win a TV.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: It's got an incredible, incredible.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Slate of content.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: And I was hosting a panel this year about how
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to adjust your model, specifically betting when everything is going
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: wrong in real time. As Simon, it was really based
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: on why the fuck are all these favorites winning in
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: the NFL and how do people manage that over the
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: course of season when your model needs to change and
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: You're not used to changing your model on a dime.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So I asked Ariala to join the panel, and the
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: other panelists were Nate Silver, best selling author known creator
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: of five point thirty eight, can be antagonistic on Twitter
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: at times, and Jeff ma who is famously known as
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: one of the guys who was the Blackjack card counters
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: in the book of Bringing Down the House. He went
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: to mit brilliant guy, long time better. I've known him
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: for a long time, and so these guys are super smart,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: very well versed in being on a panel, and this
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: was Arrillo's first time on a panel. The dude fucking
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: crushed it, like going back and forth, challenging Jeff, challenging Nate,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: raising good points that both of them had to acknowledge
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: and then follow up on.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: He was so good.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: He also had my favorite anecdote of the entire panel
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: and speaks to how inside he is on baseball and
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: why everybody should listen to him. Simon, I know you
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: love when Zarilla comes on, because I know you love
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Betton Baseball futures. Sean, do you remember the specific anecdote
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: you mentioned in the panel that stopped me in my
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: tracks that I had no idea you were going to
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: say that. I had to have you follow up on.
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: I assume it's the Guardians shipping container issue from last year.
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: I had several people come up to me after the
• 6:25
  Speaker 5: panel talking about how interesting that was. They hadn't heard
• 6:28
  Speaker 5: of it. Baseball betters, you know, who paid attention entire
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: last season, had no idea this happened. So the Guardians
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: last year made an aesthetic change the concourse and right field.
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: They removed a bunch of shipping containers, which I believe
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: we're serving as concession stands. I'm not really sure. They
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: wanted to open up the concourse and they removed all
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: these shipping containers, which opened up a tunnel basically a
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: wind tunnel out to right field. Now they've made some
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: changes behind home plate this year. We'll see if it
• 6:55
  Speaker 5: ends up sticking. I think they removed some suites behind
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: home plates. We'll stay see if the park stays the same.
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: But essentially, in mid May, Jose Ramirez hit a fly
• 7:04
  Speaker 5: ball to right field that left the park at ninety
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: two point nine miles an hour. MLB classifies a hard
• 7:10
  Speaker 5: hit ball starting at ninety five miles an hour, and
• 7:12
  Speaker 5: it's not like this was the softest hit home run
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: this year or last year. It's not like it was
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: the softest hit home run of Vermirez's career, but it
• 7:19
  Speaker 5: was his softest hit home run in about three years.
• 7:22
  Speaker 5: And considering the state of the baseballs last year and
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: the reduced flight of those relative to twenty nineteen, and
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: the win the weather for that day, that ball should
• 7:32
  Speaker 5: not have gone out of the park unless something had
• 7:34
  Speaker 5: changed in that park. And looking at the park factors
• 7:37
  Speaker 5: for last year in Cleveland comparing it to prior years
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: now that we have more sufficient data, that's a park
• 7:43
  Speaker 5: that used to play about seven percent below the major
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: league average in terms of left handed power. Last year
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: was one of the best parks in baseball for left
• 7:50
  Speaker 5: handed power. It played about sixteen percent above the major
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: league average. So it's very obvious in hindsight that there
• 7:56
  Speaker 5: was a win tunnel effect out to right field in
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: Cleveland last year. Ver was cashit at sixty percent clip
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: through August, and then I think the market caught onto
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: it a little bit because they went one to twelve
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: in September. So just worth noting that that happened, worth
• 8:10
  Speaker 5: acknowledging it when we have outlier data points or outlier results.
• 8:14
  Speaker 5: It's worth investigating as to whether something changed, either a
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: rule change or a park dimension change, or something in
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: the park changed or the ball changed that could cause
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: this effect. I have some thoughts on the NCAA tournament
• 8:27
  Speaker 5: and the Unders hitting at a ridiculous rate using the
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: new basketball. It's not something I expected to see in
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: a different support, but baseball, they seem to change the
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: ball every year, and it's something we have to pay
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: very close attention to. This was a bit of a unique.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: Circumstance, Simon, Isn't that crazy?
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: It is, but it's very baseball like. It's just this
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: is like the random thing that happens with this sport
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: that there is no You can do whatever you want
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: with your stadment, can design any way you want, you
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: can make the field designed any way you want, and
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: teams they'll just do that stuff, and guys like Sean,
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: we're smart enough. They'll take advantage where the common fan
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: will just be like, oh, look at that they made
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: a whole and left field or right field, you know,
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: like they don't want to think much of it, and
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: it's like, no, you can profit off of that move,
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: and yeah, that's That's really interesting though, the fact that
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: you know they can do that stuff and there is
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: there isn't there is no repercussion, right, They can just
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: do that and it's it's their stadium, right, So that's
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: interesting in football, I know, it's a big deal if
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: you want to change the stadium and move things around
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: just because teams think it's an advantage or disadvantage, especially
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: when it comes to kicking. So definitely really interesting. I
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: didn't even know that about the Guardians. Obviously, I'm not
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: too keen in on what's going on in Cleveland. So
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: that's crazy. That actually happened.
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: Again the Orioles. Orioles last year moved their left field
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: wall back in an effort to decrease or mars or
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: I said they moved it in in an effort to
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: They moved it in two years ago. They moved it
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: back last year to try to decrease some runs because
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: it was too many two years ago. Now they found
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: a midpoint this year. But this is a team with
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: a lot of young right handed hitters, and it's like, oh, like,
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: you guys are clearly trying to gain the system for
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: the roster bill that you currently have. There's nothing against it,
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: but they could keep doing it every year if they
• 10:02
  Speaker 5: want to. But at some point Major League Baseball may
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: have to step in and be like you guys can't
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: keep touching it every single year. So just is very interesting.
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: Like you said, Simon, there's no there's no rule against
• 10:11
  Speaker 5: making these changes. So if teams want to change their
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: park every year based upon their roster construction, they technically
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: can do so.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Uh, that's why we gots Arilo on the show. We
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: got more of that.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: If you are listening to this in Illinois, Big News
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: as Reminer. The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: sixty five and is now live in my native state
• 10:33
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• 10:37
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  Speaker 1: player props, futures.
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  Speaker 2: And more.
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• 11:14
  Speaker 1: Simon mentioned, we are.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: Headed to Chicago.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: This is the last week to r SVP for our
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: free Favorites live show event in Chicago. This will be
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: for the Elite eight March Madness Games Saturday, March twenty ninth,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Joe's on Weed in Beautiful Chicago, Illinois. Free event, free drinks,
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  Speaker 1: free live show with Stucky, the guys from Three Man
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  Speaker 1: following the link in the episode's description, or just google
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  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast Event Chicago and the website will pop right up. Okay, Sean.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: One of my other things that I love about the
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: Sloan Conference is that it is a subculture of people
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: who are so geeked out and focused on a singular topic.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Passion levels the playing field. It's insane to me. At
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: one point, Simon, we were at a cocktail party, that is,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: the Thursday night before the conference begins for speakers, and
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: I saw Sean there, and I was talking to a
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: buddy of mine who is wildly successful, like venture capital
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: billionaire successful. And I introduced Sean to the guy and
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: they start talking, and within two minutes, I don't even
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: think Sean knows who this guy is, knows nothing about
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: his background. They are in a very intense conversation about
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: the dollar value of war assigned to players, they shouldn't
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: be assigned to players, and how people like Juan Soto
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: and Aaron Judge, Wansta who just signed a seven hundred
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: and sixty five million dollar contract and Aaron Judge they
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: actually might be under paid.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: Zarillo, explain what you mean.
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: There, Yeah, so baseball players in the market, the free
• 13:20
  Speaker 5: agent market, obviously, salaries are suppressed. When guys are coming
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: up their for six years, they have to go up
• 13:26
  Speaker 5: your arbitration, et cetera. Final three years of arbitration, they're
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: making about sixty to eighty percent of what they would
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: make on the open market. So Once guys hit the
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: open market, teams are usually willing to pay them eight
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: to ten million per win per win above replacement. Now
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: Aaron Judge was worth last year, if you're assuming eight
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: million per win, about ninety million dollars in terms of
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: on field value. Forget the marketing. You know, all the endorsements,
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: the ticket sales that your team can bring in as
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: a result of that player. Just his on field value
• 14:01
  Speaker 5: was ninety million dollars. He makes forty million dollars in salary.
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: So Aaron Judge could theoretically not play at all this
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: season and still be worth what they paid him last
• 14:11
  Speaker 5: year in this year, just based upon his production last year,
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: Shohyotani is deferring sixty eight of his seventy million dollars
• 14:18
  Speaker 5: salary annually. Now the Dodgers will have to put that
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: bill at some point, so it's not like you could
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: say they're gaining a huge advantage on his annual salary.
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: But Otani was worth about the same as Judge last year,
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: about ninety million dollars. So who's the most valuable player
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: in baseball relative to what they actually make on the field.
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: Gunner Henderson and Eli de Racruz are both still in
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: their pre arbitration years. They were both worth about fifty
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: to sixty million in terms of on field value last year,
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: making the Major League minimum of seven hundred and eighty
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: three thousand. So these guys were worth about seventy five
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: times what they're actually being paid on the field. Now, Tani,
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: you can factor in again the ticket sales, the inroads
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: to Japan for all future stars, right, what o their
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: Japanese star isn't going to want to come and follow
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: in Otani swittsteps. Rookie Sasaki was considering going to the padres.
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: He idolizes you Darvish. He still ended up going to
• 15:12
  Speaker 5: the doctors. So the opolo Tani has, you know, the endorsements,
• 15:16
  Speaker 5: the marketing in Japan, all the Jersey sales, all that. Like,
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: you don't factor that into the equation. But if you're
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: just talking about our and field value, you know this
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: isn't football, right. You don't need a cheap quarterback in
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: order to be able to build your roster. You have
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: unlimited funds essentially, if you're willing to pay into a
• 15:31
  Speaker 5: luxury tax. But for a team like the Reds more
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: a mid market team who can't afford to go into
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: that luxury tax threshold. Having a guy like Lado Cruz
• 15:39
  Speaker 5: who's making seven hundred eighty three thousand and providing fifty
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: million dollars in on field value. That's the kind of
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: player you need when you're a team like the Reds
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: in order to be able to make a run and
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: make the playoffs. And I think the Reds are a
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: team who could surprise this here. So having an MVP
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: type candidate making minimum money essentially, you know, in any sport,
• 15:57
  Speaker 5: that's going to be valuable. In baseball, I actually think
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: it's less valuable than other sports because you can just
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: spend on limited money, but still worth considering in Gunner
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: and Eliot are the two guys who are near the
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: top of the league still making the minimum.
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: Usually those teams already signed those guys like that. The
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: Gunner is usual, like most smart teams try to pay
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: him before at the big contract. So it's interesting that
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: they let her run down to the wire here. But
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: you know, me and chat have talking NASA about how
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: last year I didn't put enough emphasis into the new
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: kickoff rules and the changes the NFL happened. What are
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: the biggest challenges for you heading to this made this
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: major league season with capping baseball because it is different.
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: Right coming to this season, there are things that are
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: going to be different. So I would love to hear
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: what your perspective head into the season.
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: Two parks in particular, the A's and the Rays are
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: going to be playing in minor league parks. The Rays
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: are playing in the Yankees minor league park and Tampa Bay.
• 16:47
  Speaker 5: It's the same dimensions in the Yankee Stadium, which people
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: normally assume is the hitters park. Yankee Stadium is not
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: a hitters park. Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park with
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: a very short right field. So because the outfield is
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: a little bit smaller, you're actually able to rob more
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: base hits. There's fewer singles from center field than right field,
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: and when those home runs get hit, there's fewer guys
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: on base. But if you're putting these games in Tampa now,
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: you're increasing all the runs scoring because you have warmer
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: weather in Tampa, especially April, May, et cetera. September when
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: it would start cooling down a little bit, and you're
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: gonna have different wind patterns as well. Yankee Stadium doesn't
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: really have dramatic wind blowing out to right field necessarily,
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: so the wind and the weather going to be completely
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: different in Tampa because it's normally played in a dome.
• 17:30
  Speaker 5: The Rays typically Tropic Hata Field played about ten percent
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: below the major league average. Yankee Stadium is about three
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: percent below the major league average. But if you figure
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: another five percent for win and weather, now you're talking
• 17:42
  Speaker 5: about going from a park that was a clear pitchers
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: park to maybe a slightly hitter leaning park. So not
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: just betting right, but fantasy dfs all of these purposes,
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: the Rays will probably score more runs and their pitchers
• 17:54
  Speaker 5: will probably give up more runs this season. And then
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: the other is the Athletics who are now playing in
• 17:59
  Speaker 5: Sacker I know is compared to Oakland, way different weather
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: in Sacramento compared to Oakland, but also the A's park.
• 18:05
  Speaker 5: The Coliseum is one of the best pitchers parks in
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: baseball two, not only because of the weather being a
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: little bit cooler at night, giant dimensions, but also the
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: foul territory in that park is enormous. The amount of
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: pop ups you could generate in that park that lead
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: to free outs, that lead to quicker played appearances compared
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: to minor league park with almost no foul territory is
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: just going to increase the balls and play, going to
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: increase the run scoring.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: What have you.
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: Brett Rooker is a guy who I think is actually
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: a potential viable Major league home run leader candidate this season.
• 18:37
  Speaker 5: He has twenty eight homers at home forty one on
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: the road the past two seasons. So if you're giving
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: him an entire season of upgraded offensive park at home
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: and then factoring those road games too, I think he's
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: a guy who probably easily surpasses forty home runs this
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: season when he's been sitting in the mid thirties the
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: past couple years. So in general, I think Rays and
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: A's overs maybe early could be undervalued. We'll see how
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: quickly the market accounts for that. I think at most
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: you'll get two or three weeks out of it if
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: they don't adjust right away. Just you know, in general,
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: those teams scoring more runs and allowing more runs this season.
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: For fantasy purposes as well, I think you can upgrade
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: the run scoring for both those teams.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Everyone make a note Brett Rooker, Oakland A's what is
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: he going off at to lead the league in home runs?
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Because I don't want to miss that very tangible betting advice.
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: He's about thirty to one. I took eighty to one
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: earlier in the offseason. He's really come down. I've been
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: talking about the park factor thing a bunch. I think
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: other people have caught onto the facto that projections baseball
• 19:45
  Speaker 5: projections are usually going to take a weighted three year
• 19:47
  Speaker 5: average of production. They're going to take like sixty percent
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: of the previous year, you know, thirty percent of two
• 19:52
  Speaker 5: years ago and ten percent of three years ago. But
• 19:55
  Speaker 5: if you're waiting an average of a guy who is
• 19:57
  Speaker 5: now competing in a completely different part, in a completely
• 20:00
  Speaker 5: different offensive environment, the weight that average may be missing
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: some of the upgrades that are built into that. So
• 20:06
  Speaker 5: I think in terms of like his home run overprop
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: et cetera, there's probably value on Brooker across the board
• 20:11
  Speaker 5: and on a lot of A's players this season. But yeah,
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: third to one or better on Rooker to lead the
• 20:15
  Speaker 5: league at home runs, I think it's definitely worth a poke.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: When you're looking at those park metrics, how are you
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: deciding where to even start? You just mentioned everything from
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: foul territory to weather patterns to warmer weather to win
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: to the how that stadium of the exact same dimensions
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: plays in New York and what that does to decreasing offense.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of time, it's a lot to unpack.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: The data points are infinite. How are you deciding what's
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: going to matter.
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: I'm not doing all the work on my own, right
• 20:58
  Speaker 5: It's something that I'm at to figure out why these
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: parks may play different than one another. But we do
• 21:03
  Speaker 5: have park factor adjustments based on these samples of games
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: played in the minor leagues and the way those are calculated.
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: It takes the average production of guys when they play
• 21:13
  Speaker 5: in their park and then calculates the average production of
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: those teams when they travel to away parks, and it's
• 21:19
  Speaker 5: trying to figure out what percentage increase or decrease they
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: have in various areas to both fields, right to right
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: field or to left field, to right handed hitters left
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: handed hitters, in terms of improving or decreasing the chance
• 21:33
  Speaker 5: for singles, doubles, triples, homers, and from there also strikeouts
• 21:37
  Speaker 5: and walks. Different batter's eyes in different stadiums can increase
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: strikeouts or increase walks, depending on how easy it is
• 21:44
  Speaker 5: to see the ball. Seattle very well known for this.
• 21:47
  Speaker 5: Hitters really struggle to see the ball in Seattle, and
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: as a result, their pitchers perform better and hitters generally
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: perform worse. Willie Damas and Tampa Bay, he struggled to
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: see he had an eyesight issue. He struggled to see
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: the ball with the white in Tampa Bay. He went
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: to Milwaukee and broke out as a hitter. So there's
• 22:03
  Speaker 5: a lot of like little nuanced things the guys home
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: versus road. But even the batter's eye is something people
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: don't really think of. From one park to the next.
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: It's actually just easier to see the baseball coming out
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: of the pitcher's hand. But it's not work that I
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: have to do manually. We have park factors over multiple years.
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: Generally three years is enough to have a sufficient sample,
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: so we'll use rolling three year samples. But you can
• 22:26
  Speaker 5: basically just take the differential between how teams perform at home,
• 22:30
  Speaker 5: how they perform on the road, how teams coming in
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: there perform in their home park and then perform coming
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: in and we know roughly compared to league average, how
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: to adjust things up or down. We talked about the
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: tokyodom a bunch last week, you know, on the Payoff
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: Pitch podcast, in terms of the games being played there,
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: we have Japanese averages for that park, and we know
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: based upon the dimensions that that park should increase home runs.
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: We clearly see that increase in the park factors because
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: the outfield walls there, from right field to center field,
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: it's more of a line. Most major league parks are
• 23:01
  Speaker 5: going to be a little bit more rounded. The Tokyo
• 23:03
  Speaker 5: Dome is a little bit more diagonal to center field,
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: so those power allies are a little bit shorter, and
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: sure enough in the data you see an increase in
• 23:11
  Speaker 5: home run factor, but a decrease for both singles and
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: doubles because outfielders able to get to more of those
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: balls because the power rallies are not as deep. So
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: you want to see the numbers and the data, but
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: then you want to actually look at the park and
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: make sure it checks out intuitively with the data you
• 23:27
  Speaker 5: actually have. And when the Jas, for example, played in
• 23:30
  Speaker 5: a a ballpark in Dunnadean a couple of years ago,
• 23:34
  Speaker 5: we didn't have a sufficient sample going into that season,
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: and that park ended up playing like a severe offensive park.
• 23:40
  Speaker 5: Once you put major league hitters in it, you'd have
• 23:42
  Speaker 5: to remember that too, and that's something to factor in
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: as well. These are minor league hitters with minor league
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: power and minor league pitch velocities playing in this park.
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: Once you've got pitchers throwing a little bit harder, once
• 23:54
  Speaker 5: you have hitters swinging the bat a little bit harder,
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: the balls are in general are going to fly a
• 23:58
  Speaker 5: little bit further. So you do have to upgrade the
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: offensive environment slightly based upon the major league velocities, but
• 24:04
  Speaker 5: in generally, do you know how the parks in those
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: leagues play relative to one another?
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: All Right? A lot of rule changes every year in baseball.
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: Maybe next year, the automated ball strike last year.
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: They're always fucking with something yep, right, or.
• 24:22
  Speaker 5: The rules, pitchclock last year.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: Everything, So the pitchclock, which I thought was great.
• 24:27
  Speaker 5: And there's always going to be unintended consequences. And this
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: is what I found most interesting about last year. With
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: the pitchclock, there's less time to reload for pitchers and hitters. Right, So,
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: as MLB changed the baseball in twenty nineteen, we set
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: a record for home runs. MLB said, this is too
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: many home runs. Let's introduce humidors, let's change the baseball.
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: That became like a two or three year process. They
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: introduced new baseballs several times. I'm constantly monitoring the drag
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: coefficient data on baseball savant. That said, we've had proof
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: based upon baseballs that they've in the stands and people
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: have sliced open, that they've used different batches of baseballs simultaneously.
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: You may have had a batter come to the plate
• 25:07
  Speaker 5: and within the same plate appearances get fed different batches
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: of baseballs that some may fly ten feet further than
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: the others. So it's almost impossible to account for everything.
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: That said, we do our best with the information we
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: have available. And something I noticed last year is you
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: always have to pay attention to unintended consequences of rule changes.
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: For example, with the pitchclock, I think batters and pitchers
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: did not have as much time to reload and get
• 25:33
  Speaker 5: back to their maximum swing velocity or pitch velocity between pitches.
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: So even though last year the baseball stayed exactly the
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: same based on the data that we have, and that
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: means the home ru on a fly ball rate should
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: have remained steady, it actually decreased. Why will It's probable
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: that when you have pitchers who are throwing ninety seven
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: percent of their maximum velocity or hitters who were swinging
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: ninety five percent of their maximum swing velosc be because
• 26:01
  Speaker 5: they don't have forty seconds to reload between pitches. They
• 26:03
  Speaker 5: only have thirty seconds. You're just going to see a
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: slight reduction in how hard those balls could be hit. Typically,
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: a bat ball is about eighty percent pitcher twenty percent hitter.
• 26:12
  Speaker 5: So if you're just taking a little bit off of both,
• 26:14
  Speaker 5: you know the ball is going to fly five feet
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: less ten feet less, and you're going to end up
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: with a few more fly balls instead of hommers. But
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: then you also have the two year data sample where
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: they got rid of the shift, and as a result,
• 26:26
  Speaker 5: you're going to have batters trying to hit the ball
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: and play more right, not trying to put the ball
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: out as much. Necessarily, maybe the construct of these rosters,
• 26:34
  Speaker 5: the type of players that comes into the league may
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: change a little bit. You're going to get guys who
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: are a little bit more contact oriented who can handle that.
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: So I think, you know, regardless of the rule changes,
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: regardless of the impact, you think it might have, there's
• 26:47
  Speaker 5: always going to be downstream effects as a result that
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: you can't account for, and those are the things that
• 26:53
  Speaker 5: you can actually try to mine from the data, And
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: that's going to be where your edge is because people always,
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: you know, by the time people are talking about an
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: that they see in the market, the Guardians thing for
• 27:02
  Speaker 5: example last year, that means it's likely already factored into it.
• 27:05
  Speaker 5: If you want to mind data points yourself, be very
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: quiet about it, and you know, act upon those edges
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: as long as you can. But usually, as I said,
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: you're never going to get more than two or three
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: weeks out of that edge.
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, what an insane time that was a baseball fan, Like,
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: I know you just casually mentioned it, but the fact
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: that we're in a sport that from stadium stadium, the
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: balls are different and there's different things inside these said balls.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: Any other sport, I feel like people be taking to
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: the streets, but Baseball, lucky for them, it's the most relaxed,
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: laid back fans. I mean just outside of Philly, of course,
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: But like, seriously though, like I can't get over how
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: casual you just said that, where it's like that's insane.
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: That is insane to think they're messing with the balls
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: that way, because I knew that was true and I've
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: heard the rumors about it, but that's like last year.
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: I remember what you're talking about. People are cutting the
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: balls open. Everyone was like, what the fuck is going
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: on here? So that's crazy. That's where I with baseball,
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: like I hate it, but at the same time, I
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: love it because it's the most bizarre sport. Like, as
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: someone that tries to explain the sport to people that
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: come over from England, I'm like, it's like cricket, but
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: it's not. It's it's it's such an American sport and
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: it's so bizarre in so many ways. But let's let's
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: get back to this season. What team do you think
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: has improved the most since last season headed to this year.
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: There are any teams that really jump out to you.
• 28:23
  Speaker 5: Than replacement, It's the Mets in terms of the I
• 28:26
  Speaker 5: knew you.
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: Go to the Mets, Sean, I knew you're gonna go
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: to the Mets.
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: Well, but it's not a team I actually have bets
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: on this season, and by all projections right now, the
• 28:35
  Speaker 5: under is the play on the Mets. I think the
• 28:37
  Speaker 5: market is clearly factoring in them making additions throughout the season.
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: This is the best farm system they've had in the while.
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: Uh there's multiple guys go and sees lose Robert who
• 28:45
  Speaker 5: are good fits for them, who they may go out
• 28:47
  Speaker 5: and acquire. So I think the market is expecting the
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: Mets to make additional moves. By my you know, this
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: is nothing to do with me. By independent like wins
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: of replacement projections, they have improved the most. The teams
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: that I like the most compared to Mark coming into
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: the year are Texas, Atlanta, Arizona, and probably Cincinnati. Arizona
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: seems to be a pretty sharp play amongst people who
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: I trust in the betting space, you know, people at
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: a high level, and I view them as a very
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: safe playoff team. The problem is they have almost no
• 29:23
  Speaker 5: path to winning division. There's about a sixteen win gap
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: between them and the Dodgers across every projection system, and
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: even accounting for like the widest level of standard deviation,
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: there's almost no path. Moogie Betts continues the wigh one
• 29:34
  Speaker 5: hundred and fifty pounds, you know, and that remains a
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: concern for the Dodtors certainly livens it up a little
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: bit for Arizona. But I think Arizona is very live.
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're basically top five in lineup. They finished
• 29:45
  Speaker 5: first in running scored last year. They have the fifth
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: or sixth best rotation, their top five bullpen. They might
• 29:52
  Speaker 5: be the best base running team in baseball. And they're
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: probably a top five defensive team too. So they don't
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: do anything wrong. Solve in the World Series two years ago.
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: So the team they were with who beat them, the
• 30:02
  Speaker 5: Texas Rangers, had a down year last year. Arizona also
• 30:04
  Speaker 5: didn't make the playoffs. Texas completely retooled their bullpen. They
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: have seven new relievers in their bullpen. They have two
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: high end pitching prospects who they drafted in the first round.
• 30:14
  Speaker 5: This is also the healthiest Jacob deGrom has been in years.
• 30:18
  Speaker 5: You know, Jacob megram as the widest range of outcomes
• 30:20
  Speaker 5: of many player in baseball this year. If you could
• 30:22
  Speaker 5: tell me the final season stat line for one player
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: this year in advance, I'd want it to be Jacob
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: g Graft because I think you could do a lot
• 30:29
  Speaker 5: with that information in terms of betting Cy Young or
• 30:32
  Speaker 5: strikeout leader, or just knowing how good the Rangers are
• 30:35
  Speaker 5: going to be during the regular season. But Texas across
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: the board, I think is the best team in the
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: AL West. I think they're the second best team in
• 30:41
  Speaker 5: the American League. I like them to get a buy.
• 30:43
  Speaker 5: I like Texas to potentially win the American League. And
• 30:46
  Speaker 5: I think those two teams, as I said, who made
• 30:48
  Speaker 5: the World Series two years ago together, who kind of
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: surprised Texas and Arizona down years last year. I like
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: it both a lot coming into this year. And then Atlanta.
• 30:56
  Speaker 5: You know, Atlanta won eighty nine games last year without
• 30:59
  Speaker 5: Akunyo or Strider for most of the season. They lost
• 31:02
  Speaker 5: Max Freed. They have pitchers who I'm a little bit
• 31:05
  Speaker 5: more confident in replacing lost innings than I think the
• 31:08
  Speaker 5: market is. But across the board, the public projection market
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: views Atlanta as a value bet. The lowest projection on
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: them has them at like plus one zero four to
• 31:16
  Speaker 5: win the division. The average projections have them about sixty
• 31:20
  Speaker 5: percent and minus one to fifty, and you can still
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: get plus money. I think plus one thirty. I took
• 31:24
  Speaker 5: plus one seventy earlier in the offseason, So Atlanta should
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: bounce back this year. If Strider and Acud had come
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: back healthy, and I think that's the biggest World Series
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: threat aside from the Dodgers.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Simon, the best part about baseball is it offers so
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: many ways to participate. Some people play baseball. They wind
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: up to deliver a pitch. They squat deeply to catch
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: a low fastball. They slide headfirst into home. Others are
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: watching baseball. They adjust themselves on a bleacher, They swivel
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: on a bar stool, or, like our producer Matt Mitchell,
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: they're furiously peddling an exercise bike as they sweat an
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: ill advised first inning bet. Regardless of how you participate,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: whether you're winding up or squatting, or sliding or swiveling,
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  Speaker 1: you can only perform at your best when you're comfortable,
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: and nobody keeps you comfortable from the dugout.
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: To the warning track.
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• 33:11
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell opening up the pun playbook for today's Tommy
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: John ad read Sean before Thursday arrives.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: You've mentioned some of.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Your favorite futures bets. Give us your absolute favorites you've
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: made so far.
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: Corbyn Carrol runs later. It's my favorite player prop to
• 33:34
  Speaker 5: lead the Major League in runs. I made this about
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: nine to one in terms of projecting it out modeled
• 33:39
  Speaker 5: these you know, ran it through ten thousand sims. He
• 33:42
  Speaker 5: wins this about ten to eleven percent of the time.
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: He was awful at the start of the year last year.
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: I think he came into this season banged up. He
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: still finished fifth in baseball with one hundred and twenty
• 33:52
  Speaker 5: run runs scored. He led the league in the second half,
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: and what he started doing in the second half was
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: pulling flave balls in the year. It's the best way
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: to get to your power in baseball. You can find
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: the stat on Baseball Savant now pull air percentage. It's
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: a great stat to look at to find guys who
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: are increasing their power raising that percentage throughout the season.
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: It's very evident Carol was trying to get to more
• 34:13
  Speaker 5: pulled fly balls later in the year, and because he's
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: so fast, he gets the second or third automatically all
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: those pulled fly balls to red field. So Carol walks
• 34:22
  Speaker 5: a ton, not a guy you want to bet for.
• 34:24
  Speaker 5: Hits leader, but he should be on second base basically
• 34:26
  Speaker 5: every time he gets on base because he steals it
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: or because he hits a double down the line. Love
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: him to believe the league in runs this year, bet
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: at twenty to one. I take that at ten to
• 34:35
  Speaker 5: one or better. Jacob de gram I mentioned the Alsy
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: Young also lead the league to strike outs of forty
• 34:41
  Speaker 5: to one. I just think that's a fun long shot
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: prop considering his upside. When you're betting bets like this,
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: you're assuming everybody is gonna get hurt, right, I'm factoring
• 34:49
  Speaker 5: in an injury percentage to every single player. Even the
• 34:52
  Speaker 5: safest guys are still going to get hurt twenty percent
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: of the time. Even if you assume Degram gets hurt
• 34:57
  Speaker 5: seventy percent of the time, he's still a decent bet
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: at ford to one to lead the league in strikeouts.
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: I think the Jay's are a value team the Al East.
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: You know, I'm kind of down on the Yankees this year.
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: Yankees to miss the playoffs in general, the under now
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: that Garrett Cole's hurt, there's really not a lot of
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: depth on the Yankees. I think there's a real chance
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: that you get like a goofy group of three teams
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: from the Aleas to make the playoffs, like the Red Sox,
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: the Orioles, and then one of the Razor Js. There's
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: a lot of value projected value on the Jays right
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: now in the betting market. I would bet their win
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: total over seventy nine and a half seventy eight and
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: a half. But if you want to bet longer shot
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: props on them, lad to win al MVP at fifteen
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: to one to be the HITS leader at around the
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: same price, RBI leader at thirty to one. Their divisional
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: odds are about twelve to one, eleven to one. I
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: think if they're going to get there, vlad is probably
• 35:47
  Speaker 5: going to need to catch cash some of those props
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: or get very close to it. So I'd rather take
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: the better numbers. Very similar betting approach the Cincinnati Reds,
• 35:54
  Speaker 5: who I mentioned before, they're about five to one to
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: win the division. Terry Francona in a lot of markets
• 36:00
  Speaker 5: is a better number to win NL Manager of the Year.
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: I just think a lot of these bets are sort
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: of correlated, highly correlated to one another, where if the
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: Reds they may not even need to win the division,
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: they may just get in with the wildcard and frank
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: ConA wins Manager of the Year. So there might be
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: some ways to bet these teams that you can find
• 36:18
  Speaker 5: player markets or awards markets that are almost directly correlated
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: to those outcomes happening that you can bet better numbers on.
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: Just want to talk about a couple three more player
• 36:29
  Speaker 5: props before we get out of here. Logan Gilbert alsy Young.
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: He was the second half strikeout minus walk leader. His
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: velocity increased last year. He changed his pitch mix love
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: Gilbert this year. Chris Sanchez Enelsayag at fifty to one.
• 36:41
  Speaker 5: It seems like a long shot, considering he's probably the
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: second or third best pitcher on his team behind Zach Wheeler.
• 36:47
  Speaker 5: This is a guy, though his velocity is up three
• 36:49
  Speaker 5: miles an hour in spring training. Again, you know you
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: could project all this stuff out right, take averages, et cetera.
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: You have to keep a close eye on improvements guys
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: are making mechanically in terms of velocity or pitch mixes
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: in spring training. That's where you're gonna find. The real
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: value in these bets is combining the math with the scouting.
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: I try to blend it as much as I can
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: and rocket the year. Jacob Wilson of the A's I
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: talked about them being in a big offensive park this year.
• 37:16
  Speaker 5: This guy could hit three hundred. He blew through the minors.
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: I think he only played seventy games in the minor leagues.
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: He hit over four hundred and the miners last year.
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: Came up to the Bigs second game towards hamstring or
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: strained his hamstring and is basically out for the rest
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: of this season. So this is the guy who's hitting
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: like four thirty in Double A and Triple A it
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: looked like he was going to be a Rookie of
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: the Year candidate last year hamstring set of back. I
• 37:37
  Speaker 5: think he's primed to go for twenty twenty five in
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: a park that I think is going to really score
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: a lot of runs. So yeah, those are some of
• 37:44
  Speaker 5: my play favorite player props. As I said, the Yankees
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: to miss the Phillies under, and then the best bet
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: on the board is the Guardians to miss the playoffs.
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: I'm the highest in the market on the Guardians. I'm
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: at minus two forty on them to miss. I'm at
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: twenty nine percent for them to make it. Everybody else
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: is it twenty five percenter below. So you know, just mathematically,
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: the Guardians is a massive edge. That's like a fifteen
• 38:05
  Speaker 5: percent edge at minus one forty compared to an average
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: projection of minus two seventy five minus three seventy five.
• 38:12
  Speaker 5: If you throw a mine away, Yeah, that's definitely worth
• 38:15
  Speaker 5: betting into. I added it back to the action that
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: we're got for a third time today. It's the third
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: time I bet at this offseason. It's still a substantial edge.
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: I bet at minus one twenty, minus one ten, and
• 38:24
  Speaker 5: now minus one forty. So if you're going to place one.
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: Bet Guardians missed the playoffs, I think is a huge edge.
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: Let's get to it, Sean. Everyone knows I'm Northeast biased.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: NL East the best division in baseball. The storylines are crazy,
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: Like as a Phillies fan, I think as a fan base,
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: we're sick of underachieving and not getting in the World Series.
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: And I think ownership is kind of the same view.
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: They've spent the money, we got the players. The excuses
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: are gonna a little wear thin. We're old now, like
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: most our guys are above thirty, which in baseball you
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: don't want to be at. I mean the Mets, obviously,
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: you know they've spent the money. The ownership has come in,
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: they've spent the money. They've built an incredible team. Obviously
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: they went to a World Series. They're a great team now.
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: Like you said, Atlanta, they might be the best team
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: in the division. And there were horrible injury luck like
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: their injury luck. I don't know what their ownership, whoever
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: did something over there has done something wrong in their past,
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: but they have the most insane injury luck I've ever
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: seen for a baseball team, Like literally their best players
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: would have season ending injuries like brutal, brutal losses. And
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: from your perspective, what are you seeing in this division
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: specifically that's everyone's just talking about Dan at least so much.
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: Is it just me being Northeast bias or is this
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: really a really top heavy division right now?
• 39:40
  Speaker 5: I believe by odds they've three the top five World
• 39:42
  Speaker 5: Series favorites. The Braves, the Bets, and the Phillies are
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: all in the top five for World Series odds. So
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: I think that's justified in terms of talking about these
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: three teams. The Phillies won it last year. I think
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: most people projected them in his third best or the
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: second best going into last year. I have them third
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: best going into this year. I'm in eighty five wins
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: on the Phillies. I think they're on the downslope of this,
• 40:03
  Speaker 5: you know, competitive window. Harper, Turner, Schwarber, casteanos Reo, Muto,
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: Willard Nola. They're gonna turn thirty three on average this
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: year on average, so you have a year maybe two
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: left at best of championship window. I think Sanchez, like
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: I said, is emerging, you know, gives them another guy.
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: But there's really not many spots that this team can improve.
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: There's not many areas where they can go out and
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: trade for somebody to improve it, like the rotation.
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: Sars is already on the DL.
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Suarez on the d L. They have Andrew Painter,
• 40:33
  Speaker 5: who's one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. So
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: you know that that can like supplement that loss. But
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: the bullpen is probably only going to get worse relative
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: to last year. They have one of the best bullpens
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: in baseball last year too. Bullpens are one of the
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: least sticky things year to year. You know bullpen variants.
• 40:47
  Speaker 5: Your bullpen doesn't throw that many innings, so bullpen's fluctuate
• 40:51
  Speaker 5: greatly from one year to the next. That's you know
• 40:54
  Speaker 5: another reason why the Guardians I think I'm down on
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: them this year. The Brewers why I'm down on then
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: this year. Those are two teams I bet last year
• 41:00
  Speaker 5: upon boltank quality. I think both are likely to take
• 41:02
  Speaker 5: a step back this season. I kind of view the
• 41:04
  Speaker 5: Phillies in the same way. The Phillies are one of
• 41:06
  Speaker 5: the best win total underbets on the board. In my opinion,
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: nobody has them higher than ninety wins. I have them
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: at eighty four point seven. The lowest out there aside
• 41:16
  Speaker 5: for me, is at eighty six, but again eighty six
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: to ninety the average is about eighty seven. You can
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: bet an under ninety one and a half. I think
• 41:23
  Speaker 5: that's fine, or just bet the Braves to win the division.
• 41:26
  Speaker 5: And as I said, the Mets are also a little
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: bit overvalued right now, but they are likely to add pieces,
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: likelyer to add pieces than almost anybody else in season
• 41:33
  Speaker 5: this year. So yeah, it's it's Braves, Mets, Phillies right now.
• 41:37
  Speaker 5: I'd probably put it Braves, Phillies, Mets, but I'm forecasting
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: additions for the Mets at some point.
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: I love Sorry, Simon, did you have a follow up?
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: There? No, no far away.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: I love listening to Simon talk about the Phillies because
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: you're such a dead eyed pro to me, and even
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: though I know know you have such a deep, abiding
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: passion for the Eagles and it doesn't come out during
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: the season because you're so professional about the numbers you make,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: the bets, you make, the conversations we have that it's
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: not the same as when you're talking about the Phillies.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: I might want to do a hockey podcast only to
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: talk about the Flyers and here you go full Flyer
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: fanatic like, because that would be pure joy because I
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: can see it.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: I know you're willing.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: You're wearing your Phillies jersey today. I've been to Phillies
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: games with you before. I feel like you've gone to
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: the Didn't you go to a Phillies World Series game
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: when they were in it?
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: Right? Yeah? Brother, I was at the Phillies no hitter.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: Against that, that's right, Yes, that's right.
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: Most painful memory as a Phillies fan in my life.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: And so like hearing you like ask questions as a
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: fan and not a better is actually just pure joy.
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: Because I was sewing the on fired up. It's like
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: it's a really small window that they they've done themselves
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: into here, like we basically burn the boats like it's
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: this is it. All of our guys are super old
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: in baseball. Seawn even talked about it's the most random
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: thing ever. A guy can be perfect the minors come up,
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: he runs too hard because he's too excited in his
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: second game in the league, tears a hamstring like it's
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: so fickle in this sport. So yeah, to me, obviously,
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: Sean can probably see it. I'm scared of them Mets.
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: I'm scared of Atlanta, Like as a Phillies fan. They're
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: younger and on paper they're kind of better. A lot
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: of them, like a lot of the nerds I know,
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: are kind of preaching what Shawn's preaching here. It's like, no,
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: these are undervalue teams. The Mets are, of course, can
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: be overvalued just because the market they're in. But Atlanta,
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: that's they're the perfect sleeper team to what Seawn's talked
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: about when the division make up runner the World Series.
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: And I hate it. I hate Atlanta Braves. So it's
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: it's painful to hear, but it's like everything he says
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: just feels like the truth.
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, it's the last year Atlanta and the Daughters
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: were both projected across the market for about one hundred wins.
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: They were like neck and neck with each other. There
• 44:03
  Speaker 5: were some projection systems that thought the Braves were a
• 44:05
  Speaker 5: better team going into last year than the Dodders. Now,
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: all of their offensive players were coming off of careers
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: last year. They all had you know, struggling seasons or
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: got injured or down seasons. Right, So if they find
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: somewhere in the middle of those two years where careers
• 44:20
  Speaker 5: versus everything went wrong, they still won eighty nine games
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: in a year went everything wrong. I mean, the floor
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: for this team is extremely high. The floor for the
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: Phillies is pretty high too. You know, there's projections out
• 44:31
  Speaker 5: there that say the Phillies are a good bet to
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: miss the playoffs. It's not something I'm betting just because
• 44:35
  Speaker 5: the floor for this team is so high. The rotation
• 44:37
  Speaker 5: is so deep. You know, even if these offensive players
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: decline like this team still wins eighty five games pretty comfortably.
• 44:44
  Speaker 5: I just don't know if they have the ceiling to
• 44:45
  Speaker 5: win ninety five again, if the Braves are going to
• 44:48
  Speaker 5: be healthy, and if the Mets are going to be better.
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: I need the Phillies to be great for TikTok because
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: they're my favorite TikTok. Is Phillies fans in the playoffs
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: reacting to game winning hits by Bryce Harper It's just
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: my and Nick Castianos like those are my favorite tiktoks ever.
• 45:10
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• 45:13
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• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, we talked about bet
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: three six five. It just went live in Illinois. I'm
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: not going to ask you about the Cubs. I'm going
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: to ask you about what was a Chernobyl of a
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: season for the Chicago White Sox.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: I would go.
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: Home, like visit family during the summer, and my dad
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: still subscribes to the paper version of the Chicago Sun Times.
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: And when I was there in the summer, they were
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: in the midst of the most epic, historic record breaking
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: losing streak, and for like three days I was reading
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: it every morning just for the pure comedy and like
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: dark comedy.
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: Of all of it.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Explain how historically inept the White Sox were last year,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: how rare that was, and could they be this bad
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: this season?
• 47:14
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I believe they did. They finished with the worst
• 47:16
  Speaker 5: or the second worst winning percentage of all time. I
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: can't recall if they ended up breaking the record or not,
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: but coming into the year, they were projected by basically
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: every system to win like sixty games. They underachieved by
• 47:30
  Speaker 5: twenty plus wins. Now, the Giants, you remember a couple
• 47:33
  Speaker 5: of years ago, ended up winning the NL West. They
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: won like one hundred plus games in that season. They
• 47:38
  Speaker 5: beat the Dodgers. They overachieved compared to public projections by
• 47:43
  Speaker 5: about the same number of wins. Bye about twenty twenty
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: four wins. So the White Sox underachieved last season by
• 47:49
  Speaker 5: about as much as the Giants overachieved two years ago
• 47:53
  Speaker 5: when they won the NL West. That's just like an
• 47:55
  Speaker 5: interesting parallel to think about about how far above or
• 47:58
  Speaker 5: below expectations you have to play. Because with the Daughters
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: and Dbacks this year, it's about a fifteen win gap
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: on average between those two teams. That's like roughly what
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: the Giants had to overcome two years ago, maybe even
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: a little bit more than that. These are one percent
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: outcomes in terms of these things actually happening, maybe even
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: less than one percent. You know, the Giants were a
• 48:16
  Speaker 5: ninety ninth percent of outcome. The White Sox were a
• 48:19
  Speaker 5: one percent ou outcome last year. Now, everybody sees them
• 48:24
  Speaker 5: winning at like at least fifty five games this year,
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: sixty games this year. I think I have them at
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: around fifty five to fifty seven wins. A thirteen win
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: fifteen win improvement would feel like a fucking miracle with
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: that team. Like Colin Richard, our resident Chicago White Sox fan,
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: used to be on Payoff Pitch podcast with me, our
• 48:41
  Speaker 5: formal MLB editor, he thinks this team is worse than
• 48:45
  Speaker 5: the team that they had coming into last year. I
• 48:47
  Speaker 5: believe that they've had six pitchers get Tommy John surgery
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: this month. Six that's a lot. Sean Burke, who's starting
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: for them on opening Day, I think as the Rookie
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: of the Year candidate. He looks really solid. They traded
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: Garrett Crouch though to the Red Sox for Kyle Teal
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: and other prospects. Crochet was like most of their Yeah,
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: he's by far their best player. Last year, Lewis Robert
• 49:08
  Speaker 5: didn't play a lot of time. They may trade Luis
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: Robert this year. So by the end of the year,
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: this team probably is worse than the team that they
• 49:15
  Speaker 5: had last year. It's just a question of, like these
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: young pitchers that they have coming up, these young position
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: players they have coming up, what they actually produce Because
• 49:23
  Speaker 5: last year there was no guys on the team. Basically
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: we're going to be part of their next competitive team.
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: This year, they're starting to move in younger guys who
• 49:32
  Speaker 5: they plan to actually be part of their futures. So
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: for these younger guys actually give them contributions at the
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: MLB level, it's a bit more difficult to project because
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: we haven't seen them and they're coming up for the Miners,
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: but by all accounts they're expected to be as good
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: of a team as they were last year on paper,
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: I just have no interest in betting they're over. But
• 49:51
  Speaker 5: you know, compared to the public average projection out there,
• 49:53
  Speaker 5: there's like a nine to win value on their over
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: I think they're at fifty three and a half and
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: the average public projection is that like six two and
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: a half. No, thank you, I'm not interested. And if
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: you want to lay like minus ten thousand the White
• 50:07
  Speaker 5: Sox to miss the playoffs, I actually think there's a
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: slight edge on that this year, but you won't find
• 50:12
  Speaker 5: me laying that money for seven months.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Right before we came on the air, we were talking
• 50:16
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  Speaker 1: and I will return with our next episode of The
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