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Best Bets Today | NBA Cup Tips Off Tonight?! | NBA, NHL & CFB Picks Friday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Well, we did not have a good day on the
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: show yesterday. One and two. We started out nice with
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: an easy win with the Atlanta Dream in the afternoon
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: in the WNBA. We were on our way to a
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: winning day. Looked pretty good. And then hockey, the Blackhawks
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: took the lead right away. Looking pretty good as the
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: underdog there. But nope, that was not to be. They
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: got outplayed in the game. There's no way around that.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, it was bad. I thought it was the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: right spot, but They had a bad game. What can
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: you do? You're not going to win every single one.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: That was bad. And then, yeah, we lost the NFL
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: game as well. It was looking pretty good early. It
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: was a low-scoring game. It was just ugly the way
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I expected it to be. Carolina took the lead, thinking,
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: all right, this is going to be good. Then they
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: give up three straight touchdowns, and then it's, yeah, just
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: pretty much over at that point. This Carolina defense, they're bad.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: They're definitely bad, and Green Bay was able to, yeah,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: exploit things other than their primary weakness, which was the
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: rushing defense. Green Bay was able to do some other things.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: I think Jacobs was kind of more involved in the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: passing game. Jacobs and Watson, both on my fantasy team,
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: they both wound up doing fine for me, but they're
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: both in my lineup, but they both got knocked out
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: of the game. Watson... Went out in an ambulance and
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: then came back. I mean, that was bizarre. I don't
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: think I've ever seen anything like that before. I don't know, man.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: A lot of weird things going on yesterday. And then,
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: of course, I had some leans that were good yesterday.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: The Blues beat my Bruins. Wish I put that one
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: on the card. That was an easy win if anybody
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: played that one. What can you do, man? I was
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: right about Troy as well. They had an outright win.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: against James Madison, I'm pretty sure. And one thing I
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: forgot to mention about that game, that was actually revenge
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: for the conference championship game last year as well, which
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: I forgot Troy was in that game. That's who James
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Madison beat to win the conference last year. So that
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: was a little bit of extra motivation, but I already
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: liked Troy in the game even without that. So would
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: that have put it on my card? I don't really
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: think so still, but yeah, that was another one that
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: I was right about that was left off the card.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: So what can you do? The big news today, or
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: not news today, but the big part of the board
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: today is NBA Cup play begins. Aren't we all so
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: excited about the NBA Cup, the Commissioner's Cup, the in-season
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: tournament that doesn't really matter.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: A whole lot?
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: We're going to mostly talk about that. We do have
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: a little bit of football. I'm going to give all
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: one football play on the show as well. I have
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: two NBA plays. We have to tread a little bit lightly.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: I think... For the cup stuff, I handicap it mostly
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: the same, but maybe a little bit differently. And there's
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: a little bit of hockey that I'll talk about, but
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping the hockey board. That's what we got on
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: tap for today after the intro.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: Look at me now.
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: hold on Let me pull you out That fell apart
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: by its heart But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: On, stay with me now. Alright, what's up everybody? It's
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports. It is Friday, October 30th,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: which means I gotta get the college football card in
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: order for tomorrow. Going to be a few plays on
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: that at least, but yeah, I'll have to figure that out.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Stay tuned for tonight for that, but we got to
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: talk about today's slate here. I'm going to start with
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: hockey here. What is even going on with this? This
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: website is just, I don't know, man. When I shrink
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: my window here, it kind of messes this site up
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit.
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Anyway, NHL is first up. There are three NHL games.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not really interested in these games, but first one's
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: NHL Network. It's a good game. New Jersey and Vegas.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: I think this is the best game on the board here.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: New Jersey coming off a loss to the Avalanche the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: other day. We had that right on the show. That
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: was a winner. I gave out on Colorado. I thought
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: it was a bounce-back spot for Colorado. Didn't like New
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: Jersey coming into a second straight huge game on a back-to-back,
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: plus Hello Book had made his debut with them, pretty
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: big deal in the Dallas game, and I knew he
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: wasn't going to be in net in the next game
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: in the back-to-back. I assume he will be their goalie
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: here because I think from here forward, I think he
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: is going to be their primary goalie, so I assume
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: he is playing in this game. I expect both teams
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: to get up for this game. Vegas is coming off
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: a win over the Senators, staying at home, but this
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: may be a bounce-back opportunity for New Jersey here. Like
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: you know me, if I have no other way of
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: looking at the game, I tend to want to look
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: towards the team that had kind of an ugly loss
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: over the team that had a pretty good looking win.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: So I think I'm going to lean New Jersey in
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: this one. And it's a little bit telling that Vegas
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: is not even getting full home ice on this line here.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: They're like minus 115 right now. They dropped a little
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: bit on the line and their public. 72% of tickets,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: 57% of the cash on them, which tells you that Yeah,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Vegas is the public side. They have all that name recognition,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: especially riding what they did last year, making the Stanley
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: Cup finals. The oddsmakers kind of telling you that they're
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: not even actually the better of these two teams here.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: So I'll kind of go with that if the public
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: doesn't even want them. I think it's a little bit
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: of a better spot for New Jersey. So yeah, I
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: would lean towards the Devils in that game. So Zach
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: in the chat can be happy again, I guess. Yeah,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that game. Winnipeg and Florida.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: This could be a potential zigzag spot because these teams
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: just played each other two games ago for Winnipeg and
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Florida beat them 5-1 in Winnipeg. So this is one
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: of those spots where I tend to like to look
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: towards the road team usually. I don't know if I
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: want to here though. So usually, so you have a
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: situation like this where Winnipeg just got destroyed by Florida
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: and on their own home ice. Now they get to
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: go play in Florida. Usually that road team makes the adjustments.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: They have a little bit more motivation after that. And
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: for the team that already won the game on the road,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: especially if they wanted to blow out, they don't really
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: have anything to fix. So they're usually at a disadvantage here.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: The problem with that is Florida hasn't played since then.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: And Winnipeg played the lightning already to start this road trip.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: And They made a massive comeback in that game. They
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: lost 6-4, but they were losing that game 5-1. They
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: came back with a bunch of goals in a row,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: and they actually made it 5-4. And it was obviously
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: really close at that point before the Lightning put an
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: empty netter in at the end of the game. So
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I don't want Winnipeg after that. Florida at least has
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: a rest advantage here. and Winnipeg coming up a monster
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: effort against the Lightning. They're not going to overlook Florida, obviously,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: and Florida may still very well overlook them. So I
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: may still wind up having a lean towards Winnipeg here,
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: but that Lightning game being in the middle there, and
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: it was such a big effort for Winnipeg, I don't
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: think I could do it, man. Winnipeg's on a bad
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: losing streak right now, by the way. Seven losses in
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: a row, although you know me. I'll jump in front
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: of streaks like this if I think the spot is
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: good enough. This one, obviously, I don't. Uh, Florida though,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I believe Florida might be returning home from a road
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: trip too. So yeah, that obviously that becomes the negative
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: for Florida here as well. Uh, Florida was on the
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: road since Wednesday, October 21st. They stayed in the Eastern
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: time zone for a little bit. Then they, uh, they
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: only went as far as Winnipeg, but still they've been
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: on the road for yeah, over a week. So I
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: don't like teams that have been on the road for
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: that long returning home from a road trip. A lot
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: of times they can get tripped up in a spot
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: like this, especially if they're literally playing the team that
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: they just beat to finish the road trip. I don't
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: know if they're really going to look ahead to Detroit,
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: because they're not that good, and they're on my shit
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: list right now for beating us. Actually, I should say
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Chicago's on our shit list then, because Detroit's the team
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: that beat us yesterday. But anyway... Because it's the return
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: home spot for Florida, it is still a zigzag. Winnipeg
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: would be my lean in this game. I just don't
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: want to do it after Winnipeg had that huge effort
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay as a pretty big underdog, I assume.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: The money does seem to agree with this one as well. Florida,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: 94% of tickets on them, 89% of the cash. So
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: they're very public with less of the money on them.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: They're a minus 220 favorite, basically. So if you do
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: want Winnipeg, you can probably take them at a pretty
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: good price on the plus one and a half puck
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: line if you want to do it that way. And
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: obviously I would say put some of it on the
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: money lines, still those would be my thoughts on that
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: lean Winnipeg in that one probably the strongest lean out
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: of these three games still just because it's the return
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: home spot is still really really bad plus the road
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: reversal revenge anger or whatever you want to call it
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: on top of that I think Winnipeg is the strongest
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: of these And I'd probably be giving it out as
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: a play if they didn't have that huge game in
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: the middle there against Tampa. Seattle-Calgary is the last game here. Seattle,
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: they've beaten Calgary twice already this year. I still don't
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: think Seattle's that good. I mean, two wins over Calgary
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: is not exactly that impressive, although they beat them 6-1
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: both times, once in Calgary and once in Seattle. Seattle
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: may overlook Calgary now, although they're actually playing them again
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: twice in a row here. Seattle's coming up with a
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: win over Toronto. Not a horrible win there. Toronto's an
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: okay team. I don't know if that really sets them
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: up for a letdown here, but Calgary may be in
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: more of a bounce back because they just got shut
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: out by the Oilers, so they couldn't get anything done there.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Although I will say that is a game Calgary gets
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: up for. Oilers are their bigger brother, basically, in their
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: province in Canada, in Alberta. But getting shut out like that,
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: to me, I don't know. I'd probably prefer Calgary in
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: this one if I was going to play this game.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Seattle's a road favorite. That's still the oddsmakers. Even though
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Calgary made a nice run recently, the oddsmakers are still
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: telling you Calgary's not very good. I mean, they do
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: not think Seattle's that good, and they're still making Seattle
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: a road favorite here. So they are telling you Seattle's
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: the better team here. I don't disagree with that, obviously,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: but Seattle at minus 115 or so. I think I'd
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: rather have Calgary in this game if I was going
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: to play it, but I will not, obviously. And I
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: disagree with the market on this one, apparently. 57% of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the tickets and 74% of the cash on Seattle. I guess,
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: do what you want with all that info, but hockey's
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: going to be a pass for me. Winnipeg would be
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: my strongest opinion in the hockey slate there. All right,
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: we have NBA Cup. I will give out a couple
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: of NBA Cup plays here. The whole thing is stupid, dude,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: because the motivation, it's a little bit harder to gauge because...
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: I usually talk about how teams get a little bit
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: more motivated when they think they're not actually a championship
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: contender and they have a chance to win this thing,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: the Cup. Whereas I think teams that are championship contenders
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: don't put as much weight into this. However, last year,
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: that wasn't really the case. This last year, if you remember,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: San Antonio beat Oklahoma City in the final of this thing.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So two of the best teams in the league, debatably
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the best two teams in the league. went up against
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: each other there. I know the Knicks won the championship,
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: but yeah, power ratings-wise pretty much tell you it's Thunder-Spurs,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: although the Thunder are massively injured right now. But you
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. Two of the best teams in
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the league made the Cup last year, and one of
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: them was in the final. They were both in the
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Western Conference final, so you know. So it doesn't always
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: work out that way. First game up, though, Charlotte at Washington.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: And I do still handicap this game, like it's a
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: regular season game as well. Like I still look for
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: sandwich spots and Charlotte may be in one as they
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: just had a game against Detroit where they played pretty
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: competitively on the road as a pretty big dog. They
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: came with an eight of Detroit. Uh, they weren't really
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: in position to win the game, but they were hanging
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: around in that game. Pretty big effort game for Charlotte
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: and they have the Sixers on deck. So to me,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: this does look like a sandwich spot and they just
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: beat Washington. The game before Detroit, uh, The only reason
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to do this and play Washington
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: here is really just because this is the first game
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: of the Cup, so I dial it back a little
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: bit with this first game of the Cup. It's like
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: maybe that will keep Charlotte focused enough that I don't
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: want to fade them because if this is just a
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: regular season game.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: I'd probably be on Washington here. This looks like a
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: bad spot for Charlotte. Maybe if Charlotte's game was closer
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: against Detroit, like if they almost won the game or something,
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: that might push me over the edge to be on
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: Washington here, but either way, I like Washington. It is
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: still possible Charlotte might overlook them. Charlotte already beat them once,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: although they only beat them by seven, but they beat
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: Washington without DeBonsa, and he's back now. He made his debut,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: so this is going to be DeBonsa's second game for Washington,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: and That might help Washington, because first game, you know,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: he has to get used to it, and the team
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: has to figure out what their roles are and stuff.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: It should get easier as they play more games with
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: him in the lineup, you know, to figure out what
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: these roles are and whatever. So Washington may have a
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: better game here. They lost that game to the Cavs,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: but what I don't like about the spot for Washington
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: is they're returning home from a road trip. They've been
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: away since Saturday, and you know I don't like these
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: road trip returns. They didn't really go that far. The
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: furthest they went was Chicago, but I still don't love
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: the road trip return. You know, it can be a negative.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: You have to get back to home life, whatever. I
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: don't think they're going to be unfocused, though, for their
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: first cup game at home against a team that just
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: beat them two games ago on the road trip, though.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? So I would lean Washington
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: in this game, but some concerns with it. And, of course,
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: because of the road trip return, I also don't want
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: to do it. But, yeah, whoops. As I maximize that window.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: The market read is weird on this. Washington is looking
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: like a public side here. 74% of the tickets on.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: That surprises me. That Washington would be public. You'd think
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: the public would still be riding what they saw last year.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: And I think Charlotte has the better record right now.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: So you'd think they would be on Charlotte. So this
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't really make sense to me. But 74% of tickets
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: on Washington. 77% of the cash. They're a one, one
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite in this one. So odds maker's.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Telling you these teams are pretty close to even, really,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: because I don't think either team gets a ton for
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: home court here. But, yeah, that's all I got on that.
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: My lean on that one would slightly be to Washington,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: but there are definitely some negatives about that. Chicago at Boston,
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: I almost made this a play. I just have one
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: kind of issue with it. Chicago, we won with Chicago
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: in their last game. They covered against the Knicks, and
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: they almost beat the Knicks. So I think this is
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: a bad spot for Chicago, coming off that huge effort
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: against the returning champs, the Knicks. Um, you know, falling
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: just short there at the end is Chicago could have
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: won that game. Potentially they had a lead for a
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: huge chunk of that game and then they almost didn't
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: cover and that would have really irritated me, but at
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: least they did cover, but coming off a huge effort
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: like that. I don't want any part of Chicago coming
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: into this game. The one issue with fading Chicago is
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: they already played the Celtics here two games ago, and
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: the Celtics absolutely murdered them in that game. I was surprised,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: but Chicago, I mean, this is a bad Chicago defense. Again,
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: they can't hold leads. They just blew it against the Knicks.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: They were awful against the Celtics, but that makes this,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: to me, now look like kind of a zigzag spot
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: where there's no way Chicago could be that bad again,
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? Even though Celtics are the way,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: way better team, there's no question about that, but do
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: you really think the Celtics are going to win against
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: them again by like 40 points when they don't have
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: any incentive to really do so? I don't think so,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: and the Celtics might look right past them, even though
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I thought they would last time, but especially now that
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: the Celtics beat them by that margin a couple games ago,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think the Celtics are going to take the
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Bulls seriously and knowing how the Celtics perform. Although, again,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: I was wrong about that Celtics-Bulls game last time. I
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: was right that the Celtics wouldn't pay attention to Brooklyn,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: but that's the thing. The Celtics do set up as
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: a potential focus spot here because they almost lost to Brooklyn.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: So that's the thing. So I do like the Celtics
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: in this game. If I was going to play this game,
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: I would lay the points with the Celtics. I don't
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: like the Bulls coming off that huge effort against the Knicks.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: I think they might not be able to maintain that
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: effort A second straight game here. Celtics almost got caught
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: in their last game. I think maybe they were just
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: riding high. Celtics had beaten the Knicks and then beat
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: the Bulls. I thought they were going to be in
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: a letdown off of beating the Knicks. They did not
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: have the letdown. They crushed the Bulls. Then I think
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: the letdown came in. The Celtics were just probably feeling
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: way too overconfident. The Nets always give them issues. I
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: don't know why. Recently, at least. But the Celtics almost
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: lost that game to the Nets. The Nets, I think,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: hit a three-pointer. at the buzzer in regulation, ascended into OT,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: and then the Celtics had to win on a buzzer
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: beater in OT, which is crazy. But Celtics now coming
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: off a game where they were a huge favorite and
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: they almost lost, so I think that sets them up
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: as a bounce-back candidate after that. Again, my only issue
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: with this is the Celtics just destroyed the Bulls two
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: games ago, so they still might not take them seriously
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: enough to cover a huge number like this, so that
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: would be my concern here. I would lay it though
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: if I was going to play it. The Celtics are 15.5
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: point favorite here. The money is slightly indicating towards Chicago.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: 55% of tickets, 61% of the cash on them. But yeah,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: I would lay it with the Celtics if I was
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: going to play this one. This one was closer to
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: being a play for me than some of the other ones.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: So I don't hate the idea of laying all those
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: points with the Celtics.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you got to lay points in the NBA. It's
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: at least a sport where a ton of points get
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: scored and doing it against one of the worst defenses
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: in the league is maybe not the worst idea, but
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I still don't really want to do it. And then
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: I guess you do have to. ask yourself who the
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Celtics are playing next. Is there a look ahead? Well,
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: they're playing Orlando.
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Kind of an injured Orlando team. I'm not really sure
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: that qualifies as much of a look ahead. So yeah,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: I would lead Celtics in that one. Just simplifying it
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: to Chicago's coming off a huge performance as an underdog.
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: Fell just short. Celtics coming off a very bad performance.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: as a big favorite. Usually you want to look towards
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: the favorite in a spot like that. So those are
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: my thoughts on that. Speaking of which, Detroit and Brooklyn,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: we have a similar situation in this game, except this
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: one actually is going to make my card. Whoops, wrong.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Of course, I click on the wrong video there. There
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: you go. We're going to lay the points of the Pistons. Yeah,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: we're laying a road favorite here in this one. Again,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: I've done it before. We did it a couple days ago.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: We had a road favorite. This one's a little bit
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: more substantial, but can't shy away from it in the NBA.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: If it's a good spot to do it, I think
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: it is. I know Detroit is without Durin, so they're
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: missing one of their best players. But even so, I
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: don't care. This Detroit team is still way better than Brooklyn.
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: And this is a good spot to play Detroit here.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: Detroit's coming off, uh, that game against the Hornets, or
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I thought that like Detroit did not play that well
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: in that game against the Hornets. Detroit was the home
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: favorite in that game. They only won by eight. And
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: I think this game was pretty close towards the end.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: It was an ugly low scoring game too. So the
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: public is maybe going to shy away from Detroit a
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: little bit after that, even though they're all one loss
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: team right now, Detroit was a seven and a half
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: point favorite. Um, they only won the game by eight.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: It was a low scoring game. They were losing the
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: game at halftime and they turned it around and, uh,
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: want to winning the game, but it was close for
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: pretty much the remainder of the game. So I think
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Detroit got a little bit of a scare there, but
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: the main component to this is, you know what it is.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: This looks like a major flat spot for Brooklyn. Cause
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: they just took the Celtics not only to the limit,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: but took them into overtime as whatever they were, huge
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: underdogs in that game, 12 point underdogs, whatever it was. Um,
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Whenever a team does that and they fall just short,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: they tend to come up flat in the next game.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I know they're facing Detroit, who's one of the better
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: teams in the conference. There's no doubt about that. But
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: I don't see Brooklyn being able to maintain this effort
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: two games in a row like this. I just don't
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: see it happening. I think they put all their energy
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: into that Celtic game and fell just short. Yeah, this
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: is the cup, and you'll try to get up for it,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: but I just don't see it. It looks like a
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: nice bounce-back spot for Detroit off kind of an ugly-looking win.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Brooklyn off a much higher-scoring, really good-looking loss, and a
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: game that took so much effort from them that I
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: just think they're going to be flat in this one
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: off of that. Looking at where the money is here,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: the money's indicating on Brooklyn. Obviously, I do not agree
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: with that. This number went up from 7.5 to 8.5.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Detroit has 64% of tickets. 66% of the cash on Brooklyn.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: That worries me. I'm hoping the market re-changes between now
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: and then. But, yeah, I see only one way to
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: play this, and it is laying it with the Detroit
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Pistons here with Brooklyn coming off that massive effort and
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: falling just short.
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: So, yeah.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: We're going to do it. Yeah, Detroit laying the points there.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Amazon Prime has a double header here. Knicks and Sixers.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: Revenge spot for the Knicks, potentially, by the way. This
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: is the next game up. This is in Philly now,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: which means LeBron is going to be flying by helicopter
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: from New York. To Philly, because he lives in New York,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: even though he plays on Philly, assuming he's playing here.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: But the one thing you have to be aware of
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: is the Knicks are two and a half point favorite
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: in this game on the road. You have to ask yourself, well, why? Now,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: the Knicks were like a four and a half point
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: favorite at home against Philly in the opener for the season, right?
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: So that would indicate that this line should really be
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: like kind of around a pick'em, basically. so even that
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: I think would throw people off like I think because
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: the Knicks had a bad start to the season and
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Philly has only one loss I think the public is
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: going to be on Philadelphia in this game I would
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: have to imagine even though you can see on the
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: board here it doesn't really look like they are but
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: we'll look at that in a minute um I I
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: think that they they truly will be though because why
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: wouldn't they be Philly has a better record um Philly
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: is um they already beat the Knicks once on the road.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: So it seems like that would be the public side
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: here and they get all the hype here as well.
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: So I like the Knicks in this game, but there
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: are definitely things you have to be aware of here.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: And number one, the thing I was just about to
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: talk about is the Knicks are two and a half
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: point favorite here. Actually they've dropped to about two, one
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: and a half now. And I said that, you know,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: maybe this should be about a pick them maybe for,
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: you know, something like that. If, We were going based
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: off of what the Knicks were favored by in the
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: first game. But the reason why this line looks a
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: little bit skewed towards the Knicks is because Jalen Brown
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: might not play in this game. So I think the
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are putting a line up there somewhere and trying
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: to account for that. He's questionable, so I don't know
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: if he's going to play or not. That's the thing.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: So this game, you might want to wait and see
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: if Brown is going to play because I like the
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: Knicks in this game. And if Brown is going to play,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: obviously you're going to get a better number on the Knicks, right?
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: Like the Sixers will probably be favored if Brown is playing.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: So I would wait on this game because I do
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: like the Knicks here. I think it's a revenge spot
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: for the Knicks. Like I said, the Knicks had their
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: banner ceremony spoiled by Philadelphia going into their place and
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: crashing the party. Both teams are going to get up
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: for this game. The Knicks are also coming off that
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: ugly performance against the Bulls, and you saw what my
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: handicap was in that game. I gave up the Bulls
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: as a play because the Knicks had just beaten the Pistons.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: Very satisfying win, and they had the Sixers on deck,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: so I thought it was a sandwich spot. I think
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: they looked past the Bulls. They got it done anyway, though,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: which does show the Knicks have some resolve here. I mean,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: they had to make a comeback in that game and win,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: but now they're coming off a bad performance as a favorite.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: I like how it sets up for the Knicks here,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: that on top of it being a revenge spot. Whereas
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: the 76ers, they're coming off a close call too, though,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: against the Pacers. I think they actually might have wound
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: up covering that game. I liked the Pacers to cover
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: in that one, and they were definitely hanging in that game.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: That game was close at the end. So Philly is
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: technically coming off a close call as well, but they
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: were a smaller favorite in that one. And one thing
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: I forgot to mention is Halliburton actually missed that game,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: so I missed that as far as the handicap. It
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: was actually an injured player spot for the Pacers, so
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: I should have taken that into account, but that might
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: have made me put the Pacers on my card and
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I think they wound up right on the number. I
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: think the number was right about five. It might have
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: been four and a half, so I'm not too mad
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: that I did not have that one on my card.
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: Indiana was basically the right side in that game. But yeah,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: you have two teams that are both coming off of
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: unimpressive wins basically coming into this game. So both teams
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: should be focused. I'm going to lean to the Knicks
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: just because I think they might make some adjustments to
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: that first game. The Knicks did have a lead for
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: a decent chunk of that first game. They might have
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: revenge in mind because that's the type of revenge that
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: maybe does matter because they know that the Sixers just
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: came in and spoiled their celebration. So I think that
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: all matters. I actually prefer the Knicks if Brown does
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: play here, though, because if Brown doesn't play, it kind
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: of makes it an injured player spot for Philly, right,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: where there's going to be maybe a little bit of
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: line value on Philly, and they might get up for
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: the game a little bit more to try to account
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: for one of their star players being out So I
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: would actually prefer if Brown plays. I actually like the
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: Knicks better. And you'll get a little bit of a
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: better number on it. But I'm not going to play
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: this game. So those are my thoughts on that. Let
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: me see. Next game up is Orlando and Toronto. And then... Yeah,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: I'll probably do, I'll hydrate after I talk about this game,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: I guess. This could be a zigzag, because Toronto, these
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: teams are playing two games in a row in Toronto.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: It's just one was regular season, this one's cup. So
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: the floor is going to be different. I hate the
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: floor in these cup games, by the way. It's just,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: insanely bright like i don't even know how the players
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: don't get distracted by that it's insane so we'll probably
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: have whatever like a pink raptor floor here maybe it'll
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: be black i don't know what it looks like but
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: toronto just beat the magic by 30 and the magic
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: you know they're without bunch arrow right now they're down
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: one of the best players here but of a 30
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: point Victory margin like this. You got to think there
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: is some sort of zigzag here. So I'm going to
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: be leaning towards the magic in this game. I think
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: Toronto may take Orlando a little bit less seriously after
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: literally beating them by 30 points in the most recent
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: game they played. And there were some outliers here. Mainly
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Toronto just shot way too well from three point range.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Toronto outshot Orlando throughout the game, but they hit 43%
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: of their threes. They were plus 15 from three point range.
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: That's really the big outlier here. And Orlando was terrible defensively.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: in the turnover department, too. Both teams turned it over
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: a lot. Orlando, 20 turnovers, though, so that definitely did
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: them in as well. But the plus 15 from three-point range,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: that is an outlier to me. I don't see Toronto
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: being able to shoot that well from three again. And
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Orlando usually does defend fairly well around the perimeter, so
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: got to take that into account. Orlando also shot particularly
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: poorly in that game, especially from three, 29%. So I
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: see some regression there. indicators here. One issue is Orlando
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: got wrecked on the boards, though. Toronto is the better
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: paint team. Is Kawhi Leonard playing?
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he has that much of an
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: impact anymore, but he is on Toronto again. Toronto has
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: had a plus 11 rebound margin in that game, so
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: that does worry me a little bit because that kind
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: of means they were the dominant interior team, and that
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: usually is the team I kind of want to look toward.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: But all that being said, I still think this is
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: a zigzag spot. I think the shooting regresses here. I
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: like Orlando in this one. The line is basically the
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: same as it was in the other game. It's five
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: and a half, which I'm pretty sure that's exactly what
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: it was in the previous game. So the oddsmakers have
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: not changed the number, surprisingly, because sometimes, like a lot
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: of the reason for the zigzag working is that the
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers a lot of times... adjust the number based on
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: that previous result, but they know not to now because
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: the zigzag was such a profitable angle in the NBA
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: for so long, especially in the playoffs. The oddsmakers kind
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: of stopped doing that, and they actually sometimes will move
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: the line in the other direction. In this case, it's
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: about the same, but I still think that does offer
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: some value there. The fact that it's the same number, yeah,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: I would rather have Orlando in this one. Toronto has
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: 61% of the tickets on them, 65% of the cash
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: on Orlando. Yeah, I agree with the money here. I
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: would lean Orlando in this one. And I guess you
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: could ask, who would Estrada play next? Although, I don't
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: know if you're going to overlook your first cup game,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: but let's see. They do have the Lakers next, and
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: after crushing Orlando once, maybe that is a look ahead,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: because it's the Lakers, man. Even if the Lakers are...
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Not so good on defense or whatever. They still score
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: a lot, and they're still the Lakers. They still have
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of weight behind their name, and they do
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: have Luka there. So it is possible Toronto does look
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: ahead to that. But maybe the fact that it's a
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: cup game will keep them somewhat focused here still. But, yeah,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: I like Orlando plus the points in that one still.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: All right, I will be right back, and then we'll
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: finish the rest of the cup games here the other half.
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: Then we got college football, and I believe that will
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: be the end of the show. And I have one
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: more NBA play here in the second half, and I
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: have one football play as well that I will give out,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: and I will be back in two minutes.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: Thank you.
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: Next game is, oh, hey, it's another play for me. And, yeah,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: we got to do this, man. We're going back to
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: my abuser here in this next one.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Unfortunately, we're going to lay the points with the
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: Miami Heat again here. Nobody's really going to want to
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: do it because their record's bad still, and you're having
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: to lay eight and a half here against Indiana. But remember,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: this is Indiana without Halliburton. So kind of one component
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: to this handicap is Indiana is in their second game
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: without Halliburton now. Yeah, well, they're used to playing without
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: him because he's been hurt so often. Still, the way
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: that this works usually is that the first game without him,
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: which was the previous game for Indiana here, they tend
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: to get way up for that game. They play really
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: hard to try to account for him being out. And
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: if they have a big game, which I think they did,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: they almost were able to beat the 76ers. That was
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: a huge game for Indiana, and they fell just short
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: of the Sixers. Now coming off of all that, Usually
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: that second game, if you play well that first game
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: without your star player, the second game you usually have
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: a step back. I think that's what we're looking at
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: with Indiana here. But not only is it the second
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: game without Halliburton, but they had a huge game against
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: the 76ers. So I think this is a major letdown
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: spot or hangover spot coming off that huge effort for
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Indiana where they almost beat the Sixers, fell just short.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: I do not see Indiana being able to put in
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: a big effort like that again here. even though I
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: know it is the Cup, whatever, but it is for
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: both teams. Miami's sitting at 1-4. Who's going to lay 8.5
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: with a 1-4 team, right? But the odds are telling
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: you that this Miami team is significantly better than Indiana.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: It is partially because Halliburton's out, but even if he
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: was in, Miami would still be a favorite here by
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: a decent amount. Miami just got their first win, so
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: I think that'll give them momentum. Miami finally got a
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: win in the Giannis era, you know what I mean? So,
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: I think part of the reason for their slow start
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: is because when you get new key pieces like this.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Players don't know how they fit together. They don't know
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: what their roles are yet. But now they are developing
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: some chemistry. Now they finally got that win. I think
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: Miami is going to be playing a little bit better.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: That's going to give them some new momentum. You finally
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: get that monkey off your back. You got the win. Yeah,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: it was a slight upset win at the Hawks, but whatever, man.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: You're talking about a 1-4 Miami team here. I don't
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: think they're going to be overlooking anybody here. I think
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: they got some positive momentum now. They're traveling back from
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Atlanta here. Who cares? It was a single-game road trip,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure there. Yeah, I'm all over Miami in
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: this one, and Miami's the only team that has destroyed
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: me in the NBA so far this year. I'm 7-3
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: to start the NBA season and 0-2 playing on Miami. So, yeah,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: if I hadn't played the Miami games, I'd be 7-1,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: but I'm going to do it, man. I like the abuse.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: Miami mommy abused me. The Miami dominatrixes. Indiana, 57% of
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: the tickets on them. Indiana's a public underdog here. Because again,
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: the public, they saw what Indiana just did against the Sixers,
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: and there's no way they're going to want to lay
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: points on the 1-4 team. That is exactly why I'm
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: going to do it. That plus the spot. The real
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: money appears to be on Miami. 84% of the cash
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: on them. Unfortunately, it did open seven, which I think
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: was out there briefly. Seven would have been a lot
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: better because it's kind of key in the NBA, but
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: it's not.
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's that bad. A game where you
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: might have a ton of points being scored here. Yeah,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: I say we just go with this. It is a
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: high total, too. It's in the 230s. The other game,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: the Detroit game, does not have as high of a
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: total in the 220s. But even so, I think we
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: can get there with this. So, yeah, we have two
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: favorites on the NBA card today. Fairly big favorites. My
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: football play is also going to be a favorite, but
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: a small one. And really, I think maybe this should
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: be an underdog. Why am I playing it then? I
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: don't know. Anyway, yeah, Miami is the play there. I
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: think that's all I got on that one. All right.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: Houston and Dallas is the next team. The Battle of Texas. Now,
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: these teams did play once already. Houston opened the season
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: by easily beating the Mavericks in Houston. Houston's off to
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: a 5-0 start. although they really only have one really
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: good win in here, which is against the Spurs, but
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: this Houston team's good. I said it in my season preview.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: I thought Houston was kind of a value play in
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: the futures market. They're a good team, dude, and they're
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: kind of unheralded because they don't really have a ton
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: of star power on this team, but they play well fundamentally.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: They're coming off another win. They beat Milwaukee by 32
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: points in their last game. You know I don't want
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: to be on a team that just beats somebody by 30-plus.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: I do not want that. And this could be a
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: little bit of a revenge game, if you want to
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: call it that, for Dallas here. So I think I'd
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: be leaning Dallas here, but there is one huge problem
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: with that, which I'll talk about in a minute. But
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: the fact that Houston already beat them to start the
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: season and easily beat them, they might overlook Dallas. What
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: I will say is Houston was, I believe they were about... what,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: like an eight-point favorite in that game to open the
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: season against Dallas, and now on the road against Dallas,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Houston is six and a half. That number seems a
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: little high. Like, if they were eight at home, you
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: don't get that much from home court, but this line really,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I think, should be about five and a half or so,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: I would say here. So I do think this line
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: is skewed a little bit higher towards the Houston direction here.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to lean Houston in this game, but the
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: one main issue I have with it, aside from the
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: fact it looks like the market doesn't agree with it,
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: is Dallas is coming up a monster game themselves. Actually,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: you know what? Maybe I should not lean Dallas. here.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: I might have to reconsider this. Dallas just crushed the Thunder.
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: I knew that. But they're actually coming off of two
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: huge upsets in a row. They upset the Heat on
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: the road. That was one of my losses on the show.
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: And then they obliterated the Thunder in their most recent game.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: You know that's a huge win for Dallas. But you've
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: got to keep in mind that Thunder team... I forgot
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: to talk about how injury-decimated they are. I talked about
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Jalen Williams on the show. He's out indefinitely. He destroyed
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: his leg. Horrible. Absolutely horrible. But OKC was without a
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: bunch of guys in that game. They were without Caruso.
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: They were without Cason Wallace. Is that his name? And
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: they were without Chad Holmgren, who's one of their starters.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: They were down half of their lineup, basically, in that game.
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: So that Dallas win... Yeah, it's impressive, but it's a
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: little bit less impressive when you realize that the Thunder
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: had a bunch of injuries in that game. They had
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: a bunch of guys not play in that game, let's say. Um,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: and AJ Mitchell, I don't know if he played or not.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Cause he was questionable in that game too. He might've
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: played though, but it was basically just SGA, uh, you know,
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: single handedly carrying the team for the most part, huge
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: win for Dallas. Um, you know, which can kind of legitimate,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: that's kind of like a legitimizer for Dallas in this
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: second year or whatever it is with Cooper flag here.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: You know what? I'm going to change my opinion on this.
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: I would lean Houston in this one. Um, yeah, even
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: though it doesn't seem like the live values there, it
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: is still a little bit of a revenge spot, but
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: I think the more important thing is Houston's coming up
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: a much less impressive blowout. When Dallas is coming up
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: an extremely impressive looking blowout win against the thunder. So yeah,
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: I turned it around. I'll leave Houston in this one.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: 51% of the tickets, 64% of the cash on them.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: Obviously I had a hard time figuring this game out, but,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: and I still don't know if I have it figured out.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Houston's laying six, six and a half here. Um, Yeah,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: I guess I'd lean more towards laying the points there.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: My reaction when I first looked at this was the
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: opposite of that. So, obviously, I do not have a
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: strong opinion on this. This game's tough to figure out. But, yeah,
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: I think it does kind of come down to Dallas
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: pulling off two big upsets in a row. It's like,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: how much are they really going to have left in
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: the tank here? Even if they want to get up
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: for this. Like, they're never going to overlook Houston. You know,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: it's just... I don't know. I think it's a matter
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: of they're going to be way more fatigued here. Houston's
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: win over Milwaukee was like a tune-up game, basically, like
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: a cakewalk. It was like an FBS football team playing
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: an FCS team or something. You know what I mean? Sorry,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: I'm throwing shade on the Milwaukee Bucks here, but they
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee suck, okay? All right. Next up is Clippers in Minnesota. Clippers,
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: you know, they don't have a good record here. They're
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: not that good of a team, but their road games,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: they're pretty competitive. They lost by seven at OKC and
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: they lost by eight at the Lakers. So even though
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: I know that's still in their home city, but the
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Clippers have done reasonably well in their road games. They're
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: coming off getting blown out by the Lakers in their
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: last game. So this could be a little bit of
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: a bounce back maybe for the Clippers after that go
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: out on the road. They've been more competitive, at least
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: in their record suggests. And for the T-wolves, Yeah, they're
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: a good team, but this is going to be their
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: second game without Anthony Edwards, and I gave the T-Wolves
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: out in the first game without Edwards against the Warriors.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: I thought the Warriors were going to be flat coming
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: off of a big win over, I think they beat
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: the Thunder, similar to what Dallas is looking at today.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: So I thought it was a good spot to play Minnesota.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: I thought they had line value because A.E., was out
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: so I thought that that was going to reduce the
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: line on them which it did I was expecting a
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: huge effort from them I was expecting Golden State to
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: potentially be flat after the huge game against I'm pretty
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: sure it was against no it was against the Nuggets
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: not the Thunder right what am I saying yeah Golden
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: State went into Denver and beat them whatever it was
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: it was a huge upset win um but yeah Minnesota
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: didn't get the job done they had a bad game
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: they were never in position to cover that game they
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: made it close at the end but yeah never it was, yeah,
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: it was a bad, bad call by me. Nothing else
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: to say about that, but Minnesota should be in a
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: bounce back spot as well. Cause they just lost at
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: home as a favorite. So I think both teams are
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: going to be focused here. And then it's kind of,
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: it kind of comes down to like, well, is there
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: enough line value on one side or the other? Uh,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: Minnesota is a seven point favorite about here. Seven and
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: a half. Um, And they're public, which makes sense. 60%
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them. Public's not going to play
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: on the one-win Clippers, but the Clippers do have 73%
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. Both teams being in a
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: focus spot, I probably do agree with that market read.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: I probably would lean to the Clippers in this one,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: plus the points. I mean, like I said, they've been
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: pretty competitive in their road games so far. Second game
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: for Minnesota without Edwards. the problem with that, um, approach
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: from Minnesota is that it works, that works way better
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: if they played really well the first game without him
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: and they didn't. So it does, it's not going to
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: work as well, uh, you know, to assume that they're
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: going to have some sort of like let down off
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: of that. They shouldn't, they should be refocused here, but
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: I think I still would slightly lean towards the Clippers
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: in that one. Plus the points. Uh, then we have
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: the other LA team, the Lakers, uh, who really the
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: Clippers are the other LA team, obviously, but you know, um,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: I just talked about that game first. Lakers are going
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: to be at Golden State. This is the second Amazon
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: Prime game. Because, of course, if it's Luka against Curry,
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: you know it's going to get the Amazon Prime billing.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: This game is nowhere near as good as Knicks-Sixers, though.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but this Golden State team... Yeah, I mean,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: neither of these teams are as good as the Knicks
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: or the Sixers. Sorry. But also, Golden State, they're just
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: an old, injured team. I mean, Lendeborg is kind of
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: fun to watch play. He's still developing, obviously, so we'll
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: see what happens with him. Basically, this game's on TV
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: because it's Steph Curry, and because it's the Lakers. The
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Lakers obviously have Luka, but this Laker team, still I
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: think they're kind of a middle-of-the-pack playoff type of team here.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: Lakers are coming up beating the Clippers, as we know.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: They're staying in the Pacific time zone here, staying in California,
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: going up to Golden State here. Golden State's returning home
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: from a road trip, though, and that could be a negative,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: even though they're not going to overlook the Lakers. This
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: is a cup game, and they lost their opener in L.A.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: by 22 points. So the Lakers may not take Golden
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: State totally seriously, but Golden State's maybe a team that
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: you have to take a little more seriously right now because,
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: as I mentioned, they upset Denver during that road trip
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: by 20 points, and then they also beat Minnesota twice. Although, again,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: it was without AE, though. But two impressive wins for
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Golden State. But now they're coming off two impressive wins
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: and returning home from a road trip. They've been on
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: since Saturday. So I think I have to lean towards
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: the Lakers here. It just does not look like a
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: good spot to me for Golden State, even if it
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: is a little bit of revenge here. Nah, the return
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: home spot, I mean, it can still get a little
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: bit distracting. They're having to go from the central time
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: zone back out west to play a 10 p.m. game, too,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: whereas the Lakers are already in the Pacific time zone,
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: so they have no time zone adjustment to do, whereas
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Golden State has to readjust. And, you know, I talk
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: about how difficult that is. Multiple times, going multiple time
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: zones back west, having to readjust to that, it's not easy. Plus,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: coming off two upset wins in a row, I think
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: the Lakers are the right side here, unfortunately. They're very public, though,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: and it looks way too easy to play them, so
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to do it. But they're up to
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: about a three-point favorite here, 77% of the tickets and
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: cash on the Lakers. They're definitely a public side. And,
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: you know, they're the better team. I'm not denying that. Well,
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, obviously I'm not denying that. I actually like
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: the Lakers in this one. But, yeah, I mean... I
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: don't love that it just looks way too easy to
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: play the Lakers, though, so I will not be doing it.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: But I would lean towards the Lakers here. And the Lakers,
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: I believe they were about 6.5 in their first game
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: at home against Golden State. So, yeah, I mean, this
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: number seems about right, if that number was close. I mean, yeah,
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: this number's close to what you would expect. So there's
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: no real, yeah, the line isn't anything strange. So, all right, yeah,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: I would slightly lean towards the Lakers, though. Then we
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: have Denver and Phoenix to finish this off. Denver, they're
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: a good team, man. I think they're better than the
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: 2-2 record. We got a win with Denver the other
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: day as they had a nice bounce back and not
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: really a revenge win, but a focus spot because the
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: Pelicans had almost upset them in Denver. Denver proved that
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: they were the better team, obviously, and beat them by
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: margin in the last game. Nice win for Denver. Now
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: they're coming out to Phoenix here. Denver is the better team,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: and the fact they're 2-2, the public might still not
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: want to really be on them here. Phoenix just lost
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: to the Thunder in OKC, and they weren't really close
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: to beating them in that game or anything, but still,
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: coming back from a game against the Thunder, yeah, that's
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit tougher, I think, than coming off beating
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: the Pelicans. You know what I mean? You put in
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: more effort to play against the Thunder on the road, so...
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: I probably prefer Denver in this one and the money
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: does seem to agree. 67% of tickets, 84% of the
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: cash on them. There are four, four and a half
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: point favorite here. Obviously Denver is the better team and
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the odds makers are obviously telling you that as well.
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: Everybody kind of knows that, but the way that Denver's
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: opened the season, I think they're getting less respect than
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: they actually should get. I think they're better than people
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: think they are right now. So yeah, I would mean
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: Denver in that one, but laying the points, but yeah, not,
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: not going to be a play obviously. All right, then
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: we have college football. We have three games here. The
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: first game, we have two hideous games here. I'm going
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: to be on the one game that actually might be
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: an okay game. even though it's not expected to be
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: high scoring. None of these games are supposed to be
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: high scoring. We don't have any more... What was it
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: last night? Yeah, Florida Atlantic and North Texas where the
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: game finished with 89 points on the board. I told
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: you that game was going to go over, the 77,
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: and it almost got dicey, even though it was like
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: the teams were already like, I think in the 60s,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: like in the third quarter, but then the offenses had
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: actually started to stall out a little bit. I'm like,
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: this is going to be crazy. Like the game was
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: like sitting on 71 or something for a while. I'm like,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: if this doesn't go over, It's going to be so
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: crazy because you only needed like one more touchdown. I'm like,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: it's going to happen. And it did. I mean, both
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: teams then scored a touchdown each like really quickly. And
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: then more scoring happened after that. So it was fine.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: But still, maybe it should have been on my card,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: the crazy over in that game. But whatever. We're not
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: talking about that here. We're talking about Tulane and Charlotte
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: is the first game here at 7 p.m. on ESPN2.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: This is crazy. Yeah, this is ugly, but the last
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: game that we're going to talk about here is worse.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, the last game is about as ugly as
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: you could possibly get in FBS, and it's going to
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: make this game look like a match of powerhouses, probably.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: This game is bad, though. Tulane and Charlotte. I mean,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Charlotte's really bad. Tulane is not great. Tulane is coming
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: off an ugly loss to UTSA, which I think was
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: last week. I didn't even really pay attention to that game,
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: but yeah, that was Saturday. That's probably why. Ugly loss
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: for Tulane. Could be a bounce back for them coming
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: off of that. Charlotte, they only have one win on
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: the season. It was their last game. They actually upset Temple.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: They were huge underdogs in that game. Charlotte is so bad.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: I think they were like a 17-point underdog in that
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: game at Temple. And they pulled off the upset. And
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: they went into a bye on that note, basically. So yeah,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: they haven't played since the 17th, so.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: The question is, which way is this going to go?
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: I talk about how when a team gets their first win,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: usually then they have some new momentum and they play
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: better because they finally get that monkey off their back.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: Problem is, that win was a massive upset. And yes,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: they went into a bye, so they do have extra
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: rest here. But I talk about how going into a bye,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: if you go into the bye on a good note,
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: sometimes that bye will wreck your momentum and you'll come
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: out of that bye flat again. And that might happen
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: with Charlotte here. But then again, the buy might help
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: them get over the letdown spot they might have after
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: pulling off that big upset. And the fact that they
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: only won one game before the buy, the whole thing
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: might still serve as possibly killing their losing momentum. So
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: it's like, what do we do with this game? This
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: game's really difficult to figure out. I think I would
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: rather have Tulane, though, if I was going to play this,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: but they're a public side. 78% of tickets, only 74%
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: of the cash on them. If you do like Charlotte,
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: you kind of miss the boat because the Line opened 10.5, 10,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: and now it's 9, 8.5 basically here. So you missed
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: the key number 10 if you like Charlotte here. It
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: is a low total though, 47, 47.5 basically. So taking
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: points does make sense in a game like that with
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: a low total. But part of the reason why the
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: total is so low is because Charlotte's offense is pathetic.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: So I still kind of like Tulane in this one.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: I think I would probably have more I have an
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: inclination to actually lay the points in this one with Tulane.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: I don't want anything to do with this game, though.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Money is indicating towards the under now, too, by the way,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: since it's hit that key number of 47, which I
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: think the under probably does help the case for Charlotte
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: because they can't score. So if it's going to be
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: a lower scoring game, it'll help Charlotte. maybe stay within
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: margin here, but Tulane's not really that good of an
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: offense either. So I probably wouldn't disagree with the under
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: in this one, but I, I don't know, man, I
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: still kind of need Tulane. Like I could see Tulane
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: winning this game, like 23 to seven or something, something
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: real ugly like that. You know what I mean? Flat
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: earth grappler. Thank you. Thank you for the, the $ 5, man.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: You put some on Troy. Well, I wish I did.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: That was just a lean from me. I also didn't
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: say they were going to win outright, but I did
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: say they would cover. That was my lean. That was
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: my strong-ish college football lean. But, yes, thank you, sir.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: I wish I put it on my card. It was
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: not on my card. It was not in my– dude,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: my contest entry could be 2-0 right now because I
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: was right about Kennesaw the day before that. I was
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: right about Troy last night. And watch me get my
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: play wrong. It's time for my college football best bet here,
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: and this one is going to be in my contest entry.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: And you know because I got those last two games
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: right and didn't put them on the card or in
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: the contest entry, you know that now that I am
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: going to put one in there, it's going to be wrong. Yeah,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: that's just what's going to happen.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: We're going to take Baylor against Central Florida here. minus
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: the 1.5. I know Baylor's laying a little bit on
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: the road here. Didn't get to it in time. It
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: looks like Central Florida opened two, but I think it
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: was mostly like 1.5 on UCF. There's not really that
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: much of a difference between one team being favored by 1.5
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: or the other team being favored by 1.5. The game
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: just better not land one, I'll tell you that. But
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: I like Baylor here. If you want to go with
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: the money line, you could do that too, but there
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: are a couple of reasons why. I want Baylor here.
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: And the market seems to be agreeing with this too.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: I've heard some professional opinions that are kind of all
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: on the Baylor side here as well. Baylor has not
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: been playing well. They've lost two games in a row
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: and have been ugly on offense in those games. Losing
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: 17-6 to TCU and 25-24 to Kansas last week. And
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: it was ugly enough that you know what Baylor did.
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: They fired their coach. There are a few teams in
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: the fired coach spot this week, and Baylor is one
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: of them. They fired Dave Aranda, I think was his name.
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: So you know I like playing on teams after they
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: fire their coach because I think it sparks the team.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: I think a couple of things can happen here. I
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: think the players either weren't responding to that coach, and
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: now that they have a new coach, they respond better
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: to that guy. Just shaking things up. Kind of tells you, like,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: we're serious. We're trying to win here. You know what
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: I mean? So it helps the team focus a lot
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: of times. So the other thing is the players kind
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: of want to prove that they're not the problem and
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: that the coach was the problem. So the players usually
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: perform a little bit better. In a spot like this.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: So I like that. So we're getting the fire coach spot.
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: On the Baylor side. But this handicap gets way better
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: than that. I wouldn't just play it because of the
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: fire coach spot. We're going to play this because UCF
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: is in a terrible spot. Which I'm going to talk
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: about shortly. Although you probably already know. If you watch
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: my show you know why that is. But as far
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: as Baylor. Their defense has actually been fine this year.
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: Their defense has been solid. It's just that offensively, they've
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: been awful, even though they have... Well, maybe DJ Lagway
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: just sucks, man. Their quarterback who had to step down
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: from Florida, and now he's on Baylor. Maybe he's not good,
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: but I think with the right coach, he could turn
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: things around. Now, Baylor's new coach, their interim coach here,
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: is going to be their defensive coordinator. So it's not
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: like they hired somebody who has to come in and
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: learn the system. So that's not the case. Now, Baylor... Um,
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: I believe, uh, wait, both of these teams played on Saturday.
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: Hold on. Wait, when did Baylor last play? Hang on.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: I thought Baylor was on a short week, but well, no,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: but I think both teams played on Saturday. It's just
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: the fact that, you know, Baylor, they're going to have
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: to transition to a new coach here, but I just
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: don't think that's a problem because they, they made their
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator, their head coach. So, He's a guy who's
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: already been there. He knows the system. Their system's not
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: going to change. You know what I mean? Other than
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: the offensive play calling is probably going to get a
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: shakeup here because it's been asked. But their defense is
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: going to remain the same. Their DC is still there.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: He's just their head coach now. So the defense, I think,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: is going to keep rolling the way that they have been.
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: So I like that. I think that's fine and The
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: players know this guy already. They know the DC. I
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: forget what his name is, but if they like the guy,
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: they should respond. It should play well for him, but
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: they already know him. The system's not going to change.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: He knows the system. So I think all of that
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: is fine. They just elevated their DC to head coach here,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: but we're also fading UCF because of what they did
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: last week. UCF was one of my plays last week,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: and I know got some comments on that one that
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: people didn't like, but I've been doing this for decades, man.
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: I know what I'm doing here. UCF, I gave them
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: out as a play last week. I thought they caught
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: BYU in a horrific spot for BYU. BYU was coming
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: off the monumental upset of Notre Dame and having to
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: go to Orlando. Horrible spot for BYU. And what happened? Yeah,
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: UCF won the game outright. And it went to overtime.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: And that was only because UCF had two chances at
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: a game-winning field goal at the end of the game
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: and didn't do it. The first time, they actually went
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: for it on fourth and goal at the one and
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: got stuffed. And if they'd kicked the field goal, they
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: might have just won in regulation. And the other time...
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: because they then stopped BYU, got the ball back, they
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: had a makeable field goal again, and I think it
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: got blocked or something, I think it got blocked twice,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: or something, I don't know, I forget what it was,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: it went into overtime though, and then, of course, UCF
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: wound up winning a double overtime, and people are questioning
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: the roughing the kicker call, because in the second overtime,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: UCF had the ball first, and they were kicking a
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: field goal, so they would have only been up three,
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: and there was going to be a chance that BYU
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: was going to win with a touchdown after that, although
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: UCF still would have covered, but they called a roughing
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: the kicker, which gave UCF a first down, and then
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: they scored a touchdown, and they got the two-point conversion,
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: because I think now in college football, once you get
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: to overtime two, you have to go for two, I
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: think is what the new, I thought it was overtime three,
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: but I guess it's two, and i don't know they
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: keep changing the rules i think at some point i
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: think it just becomes two-point conversion attempts in college now
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: to try to end the game faster which it's crazy
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: uh it's you know it's a phenomenon i mean it's
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: entertaining at least but um Yeah, so people are complaining
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: about that roughing the kicker call, but even if you
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: think that was a bad call, UCF clearly should have
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: won the game in regulation. You know what I mean?
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: BYU had no business winning that game, but whatever. My
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: point is UCF is coming off a huge upset, and
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: part of the reason is they caught BYU in a
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: really good spot to catch them. BYU was in a
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: massive letdown spot. After beating, I believe they beat the
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: number two team in the country at the time, Notre Dame. Well,
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: now look who's in that spot. Yeah, that's UCF. They
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: just beat the number two ranked team in the country,
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: which was BYU. This is going to be a massive
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: letdown spot for UCF. BYU is a physical team. That
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: was a huge win for UCF. One of their biggest
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: wins in program history, probably. Even though I know BYU
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: is overrated. They're not the second best team in the country,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: as I said. But not only that, but UCF had
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: two huge games prior to that against Houston and Oklahoma State.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: That was before their bye. Yes, they had a bye
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: before the BYU game. Another reason why I liked UCF
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: last week. But still, they played three big games in
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: a row against ranked teams. Yeah, I like Baylor. The
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: public is not going to be on Baylor. The public
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: just saw UCF beat BYU. And now, you know, the
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: public wants to get some action tonight, right? I mean,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: gambling action. I mean, maybe they're going to get some
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: other action. You know, get some hookers out to watch
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: the game with them or something. But they're going to
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: want some action on Friday night. And this is the only, like,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: big-ish game here, right? This is the ESPN game, so
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: it's a high-volume game. And I talk about how in
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: these high-volume TV games.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: These are the best types of games to fade the public,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: because the oddsmakers have to skew the number a little
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: bit towards where the public is, even though I know
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: Baylor's actually a favorite here. The oddsmakers basically know what
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: they're doing, and the public has a tendency to lose
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: these particular types of games at a higher rate than
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: just some random game in the middle of the week
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: that nobody's paying attention to. But yeah, the public's going
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: to want to get down on this game. It's the
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: one big conference game tonight. It's the only game that's
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: not hideously ugly. And you know what they're going to do. Oh,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: UCF just put up 39 points and beat BYU. That's
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: really impressive. Yeah, but remember, again, double overtime. So they
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: scored in both overtimes. Baylor, nobody's going to want Baylor
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: because their offenses look so disgusting. On top of all that,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: I think they have one common opponent, which is TCU,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: and Baylor lost bad to TCU and put up six
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: points against them, whereas UCF put up 31 against TCU,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: so the public will be backing UCF for that reason too,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: but I think it's the wrong move. I think we
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: have a major letdown spot for UCF. I wish it
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: was a sandwich, but it's not because they're only playing
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: Kansas next. Not a big deal, but still. Baylor, they're
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: a team that's going to get overlooked right now. The
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are still telling you Baylor's better than UCF here.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: I know it's a little bit of a weird travel
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: spot for Baylor to have to go to Orlando, but whatever.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: I think it's not as bad as BYU doing it. Yeah,
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: we'll be on Baylor here. Fired coach, Spark on the
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: Baylor side. Major letdown spot on the UCF side. That's
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: the simple version of the handicap here. Public is on UCF.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: 61% of tickets on them. 65% of the cash on Baylor.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: so we'll take Baylor here, the money's, the total's just
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: like getting a lot of public action on the over,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: it looks like, some money on the over too, but
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: I think in all three games, I kind of like
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: the under, to be honest, like all three of these
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: games look like they're sort of on the, of the
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: more lower scoring variety, although we know that anyway, because
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: all the totals are low, but Yeah, not that I'm
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: much of a totals guy. Yes. Grappler, correct.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 5: Yes.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: Or Flat Earth. You're not Flat Earth Dave, are you?
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: Sneaking into my chat. We had that guy on Tower
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: Gang back in the day. That was a fun episode.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: He was trying to convert us over to his ideology.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: It was basically just me and Cole for the whole
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: show with him. And then Reed came in late. late
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: in the show there. All right, the last game I'm
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: going to talk about, yeah, we're ending this show on
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: a real bang, talking about one of the worst matchups
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: you could possibly get in college football, in FBS football,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: which even though I thought UMass and Sacramento State was bad,
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: this game might actually be worse. Kent State at Sacramento State,
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: this is horrendous. This is so bad. And the first
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: thing is, this is a 10.30 p.m. game on ESPN2.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: So ESPN2 has the hideous doubleheader of Tulane, Charlotte, and
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: then Kent State, Sacramento State. This is ridiculous. Sacramento State, dude,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: the only reason they moved up to FBS is for money.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: They should have stayed in FCS, dude. This makes no
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: sense that they're playing in the MAAC. It's just ridiculous,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: and it's gone horrifically for Sacramento State. They're the worst
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: team in FBS football. There's no question about it. They're awful.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: And it's so bad that they're a home underdog of
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: a touchdown against Kent State, who is probably one of
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: the worst five teams in FBS as well. It's ridiculous.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: It's ridiculous how bad Sacramento State is. All that being said,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think I want to lay points with Kent
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: State on the road, and they're having to go to
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: the West Coast for its N30 PM game, and you
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: know I talk about that all the time, and a
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: more Eastern team is going all the way out West,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: which is an unfamiliar travel spot for a lot of
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: these teams. Teams in the MAC do not typically do this.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: Having to go out to a weird, unfamiliar venue, adjust
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: their bio clocks, and I know I've talked about that
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: multiple times with Sacramento State, and I think Sacramento State
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: has failed to cover every single one of those games, so...
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: I get it. There isn't really that great of a
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: reason to want to take Sacramento State here, but I
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: think I would probably lean towards taking the points with
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: Sacramento State here. I was just like, does Kent State
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: really deserve to be this much of a favorite against
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: anybody on the road? In a game where they have
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: to adjust their bioclocks like this? I don't think so.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Although what I will say about Kent State is they've
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: covered whenever they've been a favorite this year. They're 3-5 though,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: so the public's only going to be on them because
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: Sacramento State is a one-win team, and they have no
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: wins against FBS competition. But we already know Kent State's
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: the better team here. But Kent State, look at their wins.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: One was against an FCS team. They beat Ball State,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: who's really bad, and then they beat Akron last week,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: who's also not good. But yes, I realize Sacramento State's
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: even worse than all those teams. Yes, I get that.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Kent State has covered every time they've been a favorite
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: this year, and they've failed to cover every time they've
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: been an underdog. However... there is another side of that
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: where the other thing you can point out here is
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: Kent state is covered in all of their home games,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: except like all the games that they covered, they were
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: at home, but they failed to cover in every single
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: road game. Uh, and they haven't won a single road game.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: So that's the other side of that, right? Like, yeah,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: when Kent state is installed as a favorite, they've covered
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: all three times and a couple of the road games
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: you could throw out, you know, South Carolina, Ohio state,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: obviously they weren't going to win those, but they're, More
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: reasonable matchups they had against Western Michigan and South Florida.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: They were awful in those games. They couldn't score. And granted,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: I know Western Michigan is one of the best teams
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: in the MAAC at least. South Florida, probably better than
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: most MAAC teams. I mean, they're kind of a bad
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: team this year, though. But I get it. Sacramento State's
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: way worse than those two teams. But still, Kent State's
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: road resume is extremely unimpressive here. And they don't even
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: really score enough. enough points to really get this thing done.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: In fact, on the road in four games, they've scored
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: 12 points total in four games on the road. Is
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: that what you want when you're going to lay seven
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: on the road? 12 points in four games. They're averaging
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: three points a game on the road. And again, yes,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: I know, Ohio State and South Carolina, yeah, throw those
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: games out. But even so, they scored nine points in
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: the other two games overall. combined. That's so much better.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: So no, there's no way I could lay the points here.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: No way. Sacramento State is disgustingly bad, though. Really, really bad. Yeah,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: and they just got crushed by Ball State, but people
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: might look at that, oh, Sacramento State got killed by
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: Ball State, and Kent State beat Ball State by double digits,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: so obviously Kent State's gonna win this game by double digits,
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: you know? And yeah, there's no doubt they're the way
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: better team here, but I think I would take the
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: points if I was going to do it. Like I said,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: 74% of the tickets are on Kent State, 93% of
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: the cash, though, so it looks like the money coming
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: in on them. But they open a 10.5 point favor,
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: which would be really outrageous. I don't know when that
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: line was out there, though. I've seen 7, 7.5 the
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: whole week that I've been looking at it. That's what
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: the number really is, 7, 7.5. Obviously, if you like
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: Sacramento State, you should find the 7.5. It is another
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: low total here, 46.5, below that key number of 47.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: It hasn't really moved. So, that helps the case for
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: the underdog. Again, if you like the underdog here, low-scoring
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: game helps the underdog, obviously. I think the under may
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: actually be better, even though that seems too obvious with
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: two bad teams. Like, a lot of times I talk
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: about how when you have two bad teams, part of
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: the reason they're bad is the defenses, and a lot
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: of times you want to look towards the over. Not
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: in this game, but the fact that Kent State has
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: not been able to score, like, at all in their
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: road games. And Sacramento State... pathetic on offense as well
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: pathetic on both sides of the ball but it's like
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: which one of the like between Kent State's horrific offense
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: and Sacramento State's bad defense like which one of those
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: even going to win out like just Kent State even
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: have enough offensive firepower to even get that done I
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: don't know but I think yeah the best way to
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: play this might be the under yeah this game just
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: looks really putrid to me and the fact that the
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: line has been sitting for below that key number of
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: 47 all week and the public is playing the over
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: here it looks like even though I don't know if
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: they're really getting involved in this game to that much
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: of an extent but the real money looks like it's
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: on the under and keeping this number below that key
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: number of 47 so it's kind of like when I
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: talk about a six and a half point favorite where
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: the public is on them it's like well why has
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: the line not moved to that key number seven if
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: the public is all over that team you know what
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: I mean the odds makers just seem kind of comfortable
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: with it and maybe taking a stand a little bit,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: but also the real money is kind of holding that
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: line in check. You know what I mean? So that
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: tells me probably the real money is on the under
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: in this one. That's all I got, man. I think
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: that's it, right? Baseball's over. No more Equinox. WNBA final
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: game is tomorrow, game seven. So we'll have to talk
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: about that in tomorrow morning's show. I think that's it.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: So the plays today are... two, two games in the
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: NBA cup. We're laying favorites here, Detroit minus eight and
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: a half Miami minus eight and a half. Um, and
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: we're going to be on the college football game. We're
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: going to be on Baylor minus one and a half
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: or play the money line. I don't know if you're
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: going to get better than one minus one and a
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: half at this point, but as long as it's like
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: just a pick the winner price, I think it's fine. Um,
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: I was hoping to get them plus one and a
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: half still, but it doesn't look like it's out there
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: right now, but those will be the plays. Um, Learn
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: to tell on Twitter. Learn to tell on Instagram. And
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: if I resume the post on TikTok, I'll be back
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: there as well. Like, subscribe to the channel here, obviously.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: Boost it, comment. Yeah, let's get some more views on
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 1: this thing. I'll be back tonight with the college football
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: show that's been doing well. So I'm getting a lot
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: of views on that one, even though it's a monster show,
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: two and a half hours basically every week. Oh, God,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: I got to prepare for that. So if you subscribe,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: you'll get notified when that thing's going to go live.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: So pay attention for that. Be on the lookout. We're
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. You can check it out there.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Covered in Uke is my ukulele channel, so you can
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: check that out as well on YouTube. Patreon.com slash LearnToTone
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: if you want to support me that way. And Losercast
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: every Tuesday night. That's going to do it. Thanks for
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: hanging out, guys. It was just Grappler today, but thank
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: you for the super chat as well. I appreciate it, man.
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: Got to stay alive here. Peace out for now.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 4: Let somebody know you do not have to lose this
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 4: round alone. Hold on, hold.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: On, not tonight.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: Now Hold on, hold on.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: You're still here now.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 5: You're still here now.