Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Conference Championship Sunday

Transcript

Conference Championship Sunday · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer for the Action Network.
0:22
Speaker 1: Later on in the show Back by Popular Demand, we
0:24
Speaker 1: went one week without Darren Rebel and Simon Hunter once
0:28
Speaker 1: our season was over and we were done with the
0:30
Speaker 1: Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest, and I had several requests
0:36
Speaker 1: for Simon Hunter to come back on UH, and lucky
0:40
Speaker 1: for us, Simon is going to be in studio today.
0:43
Speaker 1: Simon and I have never met face to face Simon
0:46
Speaker 1: and Darren, and both are gonna come on. Simon, Darren
0:49
Speaker 1: and I are going out to dinner tonight in New
0:51
Speaker 1: York to celebrate how well we did even though we
0:54
Speaker 1: didn't place. We're so appreciative of Simon giving his time
0:58
Speaker 1: and knowledge to us, getting us as close as we did.
1:01
Speaker 1: We're all going to go celebrate with dinner tonight, UM,
1:05
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about the UH the games from the
1:09
Speaker 1: wise Guy perspective, see what Simon has to say. But
1:13
Speaker 1: first up from New Orleans representing BOYD Gaming and all
1:19
Speaker 1: their books throughout the country. Bookmaker to the world, Bob Scucci,
1:39
Speaker 1: Hello Scooch, Hello Chad, how are you, buddy, I'm good. Good.
1:45
Speaker 1: You don't sound so great. Well, I got a little
1:49
Speaker 1: bit of a cold that time of year. I feel
1:51
Speaker 1: for you. We'll do this one quick because I got
1:53
Speaker 1: more important guests coming up. There's only there's only uh,
1:59
Speaker 1: only a handful of game us to do. Also, I
2:00
Speaker 1: forgot to tell everybody they got to check out the
2:03
Speaker 1: latest points Bet promotion, Fade Revel. Uh. Darren's on a
2:08
Speaker 1: little bit of a winning streak, um, and so this
2:12
Speaker 1: week he is going to do basically Derrick Henry to
2:17
Speaker 1: not score a touchdown again. Hashtag Fade Revel. If you're
2:20
Speaker 1: in New Jersey, download the points bet app, sign up,
2:23
Speaker 1: use the Fade Revel tag or a code, and UM,
2:28
Speaker 1: make this bet because they're gonna win. And the beauty.
2:33
Speaker 1: The beauty is the punishment that Darren is going to endure.
2:37
Speaker 1: Will entail getting tackled at full speed by a legendary
2:49
Speaker 1: Tennessee titan who when we told him we wanted this
2:53
Speaker 1: to be the punishment for Darren if he loses the bet, um,
2:57
Speaker 1: he said, well, you guys are going to figure you're out.
3:01
Speaker 1: How do we make sure that this is safe? Right?
3:04
Speaker 1: And we're like, what do you mean? And He's like, well,
3:06
Speaker 1: if I'm in full pads and he's in full pads,
3:09
Speaker 1: I very might well kill him, Yeah, which which sort
3:18
Speaker 1: of like puts in context just how violent a game.
3:22
Speaker 1: This is a guy who is no longer playing, but
3:25
Speaker 1: it's still in very good shape. Uh. And like he
3:29
Speaker 1: is convinced that if he were to tackle a Merremortal
3:32
Speaker 1: at full speed in pads who was also wearing pads,
3:36
Speaker 1: he could kill the person. Think about Think about that.
3:43
Speaker 1: Think about that this weekend when Richard Truman is trying
3:46
Speaker 1: to tackle I don't know who's playing for the Aaron Jones,
3:52
Speaker 1: or when you know, to Ron Matthew is trying to
3:55
Speaker 1: tackle Derrick Henry. Think about that. It's unbelievable. Unbelievable. Scooch
4:05
Speaker 1: A couple of quick things. Number one National title game.
4:09
Speaker 1: I think it just ended. Uh started Monday night. I
4:12
Speaker 1: think it went into cricket length proportions, and I think
4:15
Speaker 1: the game just ended as far as I know, LSU
4:18
Speaker 1: one And assuming you're laughing, you're laughing because it's true.
4:22
Speaker 1: It was like, dude, it was eleven o'clock and they
4:27
Speaker 1: were not on the East Coast, and there were nine
4:29
Speaker 1: minutes left in the third quarter. I think the game ended.
4:33
Speaker 1: It close to one a m. Eastern time, like four
4:36
Speaker 1: and a half hours for a football game. Are you
4:38
Speaker 1: kidding me? That's bigious. So I'll tell you you know,
4:40
Speaker 1: the halftime. I usually stay until halftime of the game
4:44
Speaker 1: and then I uh, and then I go home and
4:46
Speaker 1: watch the second half at home. I'll tell you I
4:49
Speaker 1: left at halftime. I stopped, I got gas on the
4:52
Speaker 1: way home, stopped again, got home, and the third quarter
4:56
Speaker 1: hadn't even started yet had to be the longest halftime
4:59
Speaker 1: in history. Yeah. I get it, man, ESPN is looking
5:02
Speaker 1: to pay the bills, but that was really not a
5:06
Speaker 1: fan friendly experience. How is the betting action? Tell me
5:12
Speaker 1: about the betting on that. You know, with so much
5:15
Speaker 1: time between the time we put the line up and
5:18
Speaker 1: the game, there was so much fluctuation. I had really
5:22
Speaker 1: like L s U uh personally, and I made sure
5:27
Speaker 1: that we hung the line really high. So there were
5:29
Speaker 1: some lines that came out during the Ohio State Clemson game,
5:33
Speaker 1: some early matchups of L s U minus three against Clemson,
5:39
Speaker 1: and I talked with the guys down in the hub
5:41
Speaker 1: and I said, they we can't hang anything close to that.
5:44
Speaker 1: We gotta hang like six and a half closer to seven,
5:47
Speaker 1: and they kind of talked me down to opening it
5:49
Speaker 1: that five and a half. But it was okay because
5:52
Speaker 1: everyone else in town was at four and a half.
5:54
Speaker 1: So we had a lot of early money on Clemson.
5:57
Speaker 1: And then once the line had settled down the four
5:59
Speaker 1: and a half, then the L s U wave came
6:02
Speaker 1: and then everyone started laying it drove it back up
6:05
Speaker 1: to six until game day. But then on game day
6:09
Speaker 1: we got just a ton of Clemson money again, so okay,
6:12
Speaker 1: it kind of came in waves back and forth. Unfortunately,
6:16
Speaker 1: we didn't do that great because favorite and over still
6:19
Speaker 1: as much as we tried to, you know, uh a
6:22
Speaker 1: need L s U sometimes just all the parlay's kick in,
6:26
Speaker 1: you know, on both sides. So we did okay, but
6:28
Speaker 1: not great. Well what did you betting? Actually? Betting actually
6:32
Speaker 1: was really good though, but most people were on the over,
6:34
Speaker 1: even though the number moved quite a bit. I thought
6:36
Speaker 1: that was from wise guy money. And even though it
6:38
Speaker 1: clo it ended at sixty seven. Um, that was the
6:42
Speaker 1: low end of the total. How did you land on
6:45
Speaker 1: the total? Uh? We we we got middled a little
6:49
Speaker 1: bit because we were at sixty six at one point,
6:51
Speaker 1: we're at six, so we but most of the money
6:55
Speaker 1: um was right around sixty seven, so we didn't get
6:58
Speaker 1: hurt too bad. But it again that it was the
7:00
Speaker 1: parlaying because the people that did be bet l s
7:03
Speaker 1: U um either got to push or a win on
7:06
Speaker 1: the over. So it was weird. It was one of
7:10
Speaker 1: the only ways we could really do well as at
7:12
Speaker 1: LSU one by between one and six because a lot
7:15
Speaker 1: of people that bet Clemson bet Clemson on the money
7:18
Speaker 1: line and the people that bet l s U laid
7:19
Speaker 1: the points, so we had a real small margin there
7:22
Speaker 1: that we could do pretty well. I'll tell you what
7:25
Speaker 1: was great was the in game wagering. It was phenomenal
7:28
Speaker 1: because it went back and forth and and you know,
7:30
Speaker 1: so when when Clemson had the early lead, there was
7:33
Speaker 1: people jumping on l s U, getting a good price
7:35
Speaker 1: on l s U. And then when LSU came back,
7:38
Speaker 1: they were getting a good price on Clemson. Uh. You know,
7:41
Speaker 1: almost of the handle for the game almost came from
7:45
Speaker 1: in game wagering, which is tremendous. Wow, that's got to
7:48
Speaker 1: be new for you. It really was. Uh, you know,
7:52
Speaker 1: it helps, like I said, it helps when you have
7:54
Speaker 1: those big swings when you have a big favorite that's
7:56
Speaker 1: down early and people are looking to kind of get
7:58
Speaker 1: a better number and then they come back. So you know,
8:01
Speaker 1: at one point you could have gotten under eight one
8:04
Speaker 1: on the total. Uh you know, so it's interesting to
8:08
Speaker 1: see those that kind of betting action. Uh. Speaking of
8:13
Speaker 1: of in game, I would think you had the same
8:15
Speaker 1: experience with Kansas City and Houston. Absolutely that was tremendous.
8:22
Speaker 1: Like how much how much wagering, how much money were
8:27
Speaker 1: you were was being bet when Kansas on Kansas City?
8:30
Speaker 1: What was the biggest spread you had on Kansas City
8:34
Speaker 1: two as an underdog when they were down twenty four nothing? Uh,
8:41
Speaker 1: I want to say it was a plus eleven and
8:43
Speaker 1: a half. Wow, And and it's it's I mean, you
8:51
Speaker 1: could have gotten a better price. I think it was. Yeah, Yeah,
8:55
Speaker 1: I want to say eleven and a half. I don't
8:57
Speaker 1: think it went up much much higher than that, but yeah,
8:59
Speaker 1: it was. It was aremendous. I mean watching the money
9:01
Speaker 1: coming in during the game, Uh, you know, especially after
9:04
Speaker 1: the first score, the Houston's first score, everybody was just
9:08
Speaker 1: you know, unloading on Kansas City. And then after the
9:11
Speaker 1: second score it started to slow down just a little bit.
9:15
Speaker 1: And it's actually pretty funny because by the time Kansas
9:18
Speaker 1: City got to be that big of an underdog, the
9:21
Speaker 1: money actually slowed down on Kansas City because they're like, hey,
9:23
Speaker 1: wait a minute, Kansas City just might get run out
9:26
Speaker 1: of the building here. God, that's so interesting, and boy,
9:29
Speaker 1: what a bummer for them, because that was an insane,
9:36
Speaker 1: insane game, which takes me into this weekend. I've got
9:40
Speaker 1: Kansas City as a seven and a half point favorite
9:43
Speaker 1: against Tennessee. I'm surprised it opened as high as it did.
9:47
Speaker 1: I thought, with the way Tennessee has come out and
9:50
Speaker 1: beaten Baltimore and beat in New England, that you'd opened
9:54
Speaker 1: that game much much lower, that there would be too
9:56
Speaker 1: much public sentiment on Tennessee, UH to risk making them
10:00
Speaker 1: a touchdown underdog, which you ended up doing. Yeah, and
10:05
Speaker 1: I agree, that's why we opened seven. Um. And again
10:08
Speaker 1: there was a lot of debates soon as soon as
10:10
Speaker 1: the case He game ended on Saturday night, and UH
10:13
Speaker 1: I was talking with our our guys and they wanted
10:15
Speaker 1: to open seven and a half, and UH talked them
10:17
Speaker 1: down and said, now just opened seven and if you
10:20
Speaker 1: have to just move money on the game. So all
10:22
Speaker 1: the first bets came at mind and seven on the
10:24
Speaker 1: Chiefs and we went to seven minus twenty. Since then,
10:27
Speaker 1: it's been nothing but Titans money. The big bets were
10:30
Speaker 1: on on the Titans, so U but the ticket count
10:36
Speaker 1: is heavier on the Chiefs. So a lot of little
10:39
Speaker 1: bets on the Chiefs, but the bigger money is on
10:41
Speaker 1: the Titans. And I agree with you on this one
10:44
Speaker 1: because we didn't make much of an adjustment prior to
10:47
Speaker 1: the weekend. You know, we had our kind of pregame
10:50
Speaker 1: lines already set, so we knew Casey was gonna be
10:55
Speaker 1: between the seven and a half eight point favorite, and
10:57
Speaker 1: uh so we didn't really adjust it too much. By
11:00
Speaker 1: I definitely see this number coming down and I'm going
11:03
Speaker 1: to be quick to move the Titans on this one. Yeah,
11:05
Speaker 1: I feel like seven and a half is really high.
11:10
Speaker 1: And basically what you're telling me right now, with all
11:13
Speaker 1: the big bets coming in on the Titans, that the
11:14
Speaker 1: wise guys are on Tennessee and the squares around Kansas
11:19
Speaker 1: City think that's exactly it. And we're getting a lot
11:23
Speaker 1: of money line bets too on on the Titans from
11:26
Speaker 1: the sharp guys, which tells me, you know, they think
11:29
Speaker 1: that they're a real live dog here plus seven. Wow. Wow,
11:33
Speaker 1: I hate that. Well, actually, I don't hate that at all.
11:35
Speaker 1: You know why. You know why because, as you know,
11:39
Speaker 1: we've been tracking my success in my preseason pool, in
11:42
Speaker 1: which I got to choose eight teams, one of which
11:47
Speaker 1: if any one of those teams wins the Super Bowl,
11:49
Speaker 1: I win my pot and um. Going into the playoffs,
11:53
Speaker 1: I had the Bills, Texans, Titans, Chiefs, Niners. So going
11:57
Speaker 1: into this weekend, I still had the Bills, Titans, Texas,
12:01
Speaker 1: Steve Niners, and by Sunday afternoon, I had both teams
12:08
Speaker 1: in the a f C Championship Game and the one
12:11
Speaker 1: team in the NFC Title Game that is the big favorite.
12:14
Speaker 1: So that's incredible. It's incredible. Right, So I stand to
12:19
Speaker 1: make a significant amount of money from the Super Bowl,
12:22
Speaker 1: especially if the Niners win, because I've guaranteed one already.
12:27
Speaker 1: The challenge I'm working through right now is when do
12:29
Speaker 1: I hedge like I'm getting So you know, I'm getting
12:33
Speaker 1: the Packers at six to one, five to one in
12:38
Speaker 1: New Jersey right now, I could go to New Jersey.
12:40
Speaker 1: I could put you know, a nickel down on the
12:44
Speaker 1: Packers and cover my buy in plus a little profit
12:50
Speaker 1: if they win the super Bowl and if not, I'm
12:54
Speaker 1: out of five bucks? Um or do I wait? Or
12:58
Speaker 1: do I wait? And just if I even have to
13:00
Speaker 1: spend anything because I've got such a big favorite in
13:03
Speaker 1: the Niners, and I've got the Niners playing either one
13:06
Speaker 1: of my teams, and then I just play around with
13:08
Speaker 1: fun bets during the game to see how much more
13:10
Speaker 1: I can win based on what I've already won. Do
13:13
Speaker 1: you think I hedge now? Where do I wait? Well?
13:15
Speaker 1: You can, well, instead of hedging on the Packers to
13:19
Speaker 1: win the super Bowl, just why not? Why not just
13:22
Speaker 1: hedge to win this particular game, and then uh, you
13:27
Speaker 1: can get almost almost three to one just to just
13:30
Speaker 1: to win this game, right, So get three to one
13:33
Speaker 1: to win this game. But I have to put more
13:35
Speaker 1: money down to make back my my investment. How much
13:42
Speaker 1: was your investment? Two dollars? Oh yeah, yeah, you have to.
13:47
Speaker 1: You have to bet like SI. But you but see, now,
13:53
Speaker 1: if they win it, they'll see they don't have to
13:55
Speaker 1: win the super Bowl though, So that's the upside, and
13:56
Speaker 1: they just win this game and then you're still alive
13:58
Speaker 1: with your other teams. Well, that's true, that's true. All right,
14:03
Speaker 1: you're giving me good fadder. This is really good fadder.
14:05
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Um. The one thing I want to
14:08
Speaker 1: ask you, I got Simon and Darren here already. I'm
14:11
Speaker 1: gonna wait to bring them in in a second. Um.
14:14
Speaker 1: The total on this game is fifty one and a half.
14:17
Speaker 1: I was all over the under in the Chief's Chiefs
14:19
Speaker 1: Texans game. I'm surprised it's not higher given the Titans
14:23
Speaker 1: are much more of a rushing team. Is this your
14:26
Speaker 1: idea of sort of shading it in the direction of
14:28
Speaker 1: the over, even though it's said at the same number
14:31
Speaker 1: as last week. So, I mean, what we're looking at
14:37
Speaker 1: with this title teams, I mean, we almost have to
14:39
Speaker 1: throw out the first half of the season where they
14:42
Speaker 1: had like seven or seven out of their eight games
14:44
Speaker 1: all went over, so that kind of moved that kind
14:47
Speaker 1: of all of their totals metrics up, and and we
14:51
Speaker 1: almost have to throw that out and just look at
14:53
Speaker 1: maybe their last seven games, especially the last three games,
14:56
Speaker 1: where I mean they only they didn't even let up
14:59
Speaker 1: fifty points. So the Titans were never known for their
15:03
Speaker 1: defense throughout most of the season, and now suddenly they
15:05
Speaker 1: figured something out here. So we did open it on
15:09
Speaker 1: the low side, so we did expect it to to
15:13
Speaker 1: go up, which it has. Um and both in taking care,
15:17
Speaker 1: you know, I often say we've all opened a bad
15:20
Speaker 1: number one both the public and the sharp guys are
15:22
Speaker 1: both on the same side. But in this case, we
15:25
Speaker 1: did kind of expect it, and I wouldn't be surprised
15:28
Speaker 1: to see this number come back down a little by
15:30
Speaker 1: game time. Yeah, I'm going to be on the under
15:32
Speaker 1: in this game. Say yeah, yeah, I I mean, like
15:39
Speaker 1: I said, the Titans the last three games, and that's
15:41
Speaker 1: what you really have to look at, is how they doubt,
15:43
Speaker 1: how they performed in the playoffs against really good teams
15:47
Speaker 1: best some of the best teams in the NFL. Uh,
15:49
Speaker 1: and haven't even let up twenty points. You know, you
15:52
Speaker 1: figure if they can hold the Chiefs to somewhere around
15:54
Speaker 1: twenty four points, uh, you know, this game stays way under,
16:00
Speaker 1: all right. So now we've got the Niners and the Packers.
16:04
Speaker 1: This number has moved up, opened at seven, moved up
16:07
Speaker 1: to seven and a half. I don't know where you
16:08
Speaker 1: are right now, um, Chris Rabon wrote in The Action
16:13
Speaker 1: Network his stuff on Action Network Dot Comment the Action
16:15
Speaker 1: Network app. His analysis lately has been on fire. Like
16:20
Speaker 1: every nuanced interesting point that is to be had about
16:23
Speaker 1: these games, he is nailing and it's so fun. And
16:28
Speaker 1: he had a stat about he's got the Niners has
16:34
Speaker 1: really rated his ten point favorites over the Packers. He
16:37
Speaker 1: feels like he's getting three points of value. So I
16:39
Speaker 1: can see why the number moved the way it did.
16:42
Speaker 1: Was that wise guy money it was? Yeah, so both
16:46
Speaker 1: the wise guys in the public are on this one. Um,
16:50
Speaker 1: the we are getting some Packer money line. But I
16:54
Speaker 1: think that's just because we were on on the little
16:55
Speaker 1: high side on the money line. Um, yeah, that number
16:59
Speaker 1: might been a little soft. Look these two teams. It's
17:02
Speaker 1: funny both in both these games that the two teams
17:04
Speaker 1: played in the regular season. Uh, if you remember that
17:07
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Chiefs they played that was actually
17:10
Speaker 1: the beginning of that tightens great run second half of
17:13
Speaker 1: the season. Uh. You know, they had gotten blown out
17:15
Speaker 1: the week before against Carolina and then starting with that
17:19
Speaker 1: win against the Chiefs that they've winned thirty five thirty two,
17:23
Speaker 1: and then start that great run for the second half
17:25
Speaker 1: of the season in the Packers forty Niners game, and
17:28
Speaker 1: they met in the middle of the season. Forty Niners
17:31
Speaker 1: just blew them off the field, and it's one of
17:35
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers's worst performances. The thing about when teams played
17:38
Speaker 1: each other to three times in the season, it's kind
17:42
Speaker 1: of a double edged sword for the team that that
17:44
Speaker 1: did really well, like the forty Niners, is they have
17:48
Speaker 1: to look at that game and say, we did everything right,
17:50
Speaker 1: So they're probably not going to make too many adjustments,
17:53
Speaker 1: whereas the Packers could look at that game and kind
17:56
Speaker 1: of make the adjustment. So you never quite know how
17:59
Speaker 1: how it's going to turn out as far as a
18:01
Speaker 1: game plan to meet in the second time around. I
18:04
Speaker 1: don't expect Aaron Rodgers to have that quite as miserable
18:08
Speaker 1: of a performance, but um, the defense gave him all
18:14
Speaker 1: they could handle that game. So I can see why
18:17
Speaker 1: everybody's on the Niners and this one. But come playoff
18:20
Speaker 1: times seven and alf points is a lot of points.
18:22
Speaker 1: I'll just say that. Give me the Niners the totals,
18:27
Speaker 1: what say you, Scooch, Yeah, this one they're on the
18:30
Speaker 1: over too, even at a bigger clip than uh than
18:33
Speaker 1: on the Titans Chiefs game. Um, this one, I don't
18:38
Speaker 1: have quite a strong of an opinion on and I'll
18:40
Speaker 1: let to just kind of the money dictate this. But
18:43
Speaker 1: I would expect this one to keep going up. I
18:45
Speaker 1: don't see this one coming coming down. Yeah, I think
18:50
Speaker 1: I like the over in this one too. That's my
18:53
Speaker 1: move that right now, There you go, lunch, last one,
19:05
Speaker 1: last one before the Super Bowl. Man, that was it.
19:08
Speaker 1: That was awesome. Scoot. Guess what time it is? What time?
19:20
Speaker 1: I won last week? You lost last week? I get
19:23
Speaker 1: to go first. Give me, give me the under fifty three.
19:31
Speaker 1: What do you have it at now? Fifty three Chiefs,
19:32
Speaker 1: Titans and a fifty two and a half. Give me
19:36
Speaker 1: the under fifty five on the Chiefs and the Titans.
19:40
Speaker 1: What do you mean under fifty five you're gonna give
19:42
Speaker 1: me two and a half points. I'm kidding. Give me
19:47
Speaker 1: give me the under fifty two and a half on
19:49
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Titans. I know. I'm looking at
19:51
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter right now. He's already half asleep. He's been
19:53
Speaker 1: he's been in the studio live for five minutes. He's
19:57
Speaker 1: so excited about his first live podcast in face, face
20:01
Speaker 1: to face, and he's already sleeping. I get or he's
20:04
Speaker 1: nodding aggressively at how much he likes my underpick. He'd
20:07
Speaker 1: been drinking. He'd been drinking all day. Um, I like
20:11
Speaker 1: fifty two and a half. I like the under fifty
20:12
Speaker 1: two and a half for the Chiefs Titans. Where do
20:14
Speaker 1: you got? I love the type, So give me the
20:17
Speaker 1: Can I get two and a half points? Can get
20:19
Speaker 1: the Titans plus nine and a half? Sure? Why not?
20:21
Speaker 1: I'll give it to you you. Are you times plus seven
20:24
Speaker 1: seven and a half? I like it. I like that
20:27
Speaker 1: side too, so I think we'll be aligned in that respect.
20:30
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, I know you're not feeling well, so I
20:32
Speaker 1: want to let you go as always, thank you for
20:34
Speaker 1: coming on your podcast, and uh, we're gonna skip next
20:38
Speaker 1: week and then we'll talk to you again before the
20:39
Speaker 1: super Bowl. Alright, as promised, we are live and in
20:45
Speaker 1: person with Demn Revel, who we see live all the time.
20:49
Speaker 1: Follow him on Fade Revel with points Bet Big one
20:52
Speaker 1: coming up this week, but also from New Jersey, Big
20:56
Speaker 1: End of the year visit. We're gonna go celebrate our
20:59
Speaker 1: success tonight. Mr Simon Hunter, who, Hey, buddy, what's going on? Boys?
21:07
Speaker 1: It's good to see you. Thanks for coming up. So, uh,
21:11
Speaker 1: give me a little bit what just happened. I don't
21:13
Speaker 1: have my headphone and now Simon Hunter Music gave me
21:17
Speaker 1: the look. So I was like, we've known it all
21:19
Speaker 1: year going in between. Oh that's right, I forgot my
21:22
Speaker 1: headphones on, so I couldn't hear. Maybe I should have
21:25
Speaker 1: my headphones on. You guys can beat him off. Um, Simon,
21:29
Speaker 1: welcome in, man, it's good to be your boys. Listen,
21:32
Speaker 1: tell me a little bit. We were just talking to
21:34
Speaker 1: an off air before before we jump into it. Tell
21:39
Speaker 1: me a little bit about what happened to you with
21:41
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Chiefs this weekend, just personally how
21:46
Speaker 1: you played the Titans and then what you did with
21:49
Speaker 1: that on the Chiefs, right, and so, like I was
21:53
Speaker 1: telling you guys, I gave him my Twitter angles. So
21:55
Speaker 1: people lucky enough to find me saw the picks this week,
21:58
Speaker 1: and uh, I think I went four know a t
22:00
Speaker 1: s and then I gave out the Titans money line.
22:03
Speaker 1: So for my group, we we basically send out an email.
22:08
Speaker 1: I was telling you guys, it's kind of old school
22:09
Speaker 1: where it's still in a O L and a L
22:11
Speaker 1: email chain. Um, and I sent it out and I
22:15
Speaker 1: just tell the guys that I had the game of
22:16
Speaker 1: three and a half. So you know, all the emails
22:18
Speaker 1: come back the Ravens three and a half I had
22:20
Speaker 1: the Ravens depends on you got some some guys got
22:25
Speaker 1: nine and a a half, and uh, you know when I
22:28
Speaker 1: send these emails out, I always get hit back with
22:31
Speaker 1: just a few guys who were in the group, go,
22:33
Speaker 1: you're really feeling that good about it? I'm thinking about
22:35
Speaker 1: going big. And I said, my favorite game of the
22:37
Speaker 1: week is the Chiefs minus nine and a half. But
22:40
Speaker 1: I love the values here in the Titans. I'm all
22:42
Speaker 1: over the Titans of money Line. So whatever we hit
22:44
Speaker 1: on the Titans of money Line, let's roll over onto
22:46
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, which is rare for me to do with
22:47
Speaker 1: the clients. So these guys are going crazy. They obviously
22:53
Speaker 1: won big on the Times of my Life. Like a
22:54
Speaker 1: couple of guys send me pictures. They had three eight,
22:56
Speaker 1: three seventy. I only had three fifty. That was like
22:59
Speaker 1: the best I got to tite money Line at because
23:01
Speaker 1: I waited. I probably didn't bet it until three o'clock Saturday.
23:06
Speaker 1: Like I waited. I try to go as late as
23:07
Speaker 1: I can because I always think the public is gonna
23:09
Speaker 1: come in art they didn't. Unfortunately, so I I go
23:15
Speaker 1: to bed happy. You know, life's good to an O
23:17
Speaker 1: A T S. I wake up still getting messages from
23:20
Speaker 1: these guys saying, hey, rolled over on to the Chiefs
23:23
Speaker 1: rad to rule. We're going big here nine and a
23:24
Speaker 1: half ten minus ten. And I was telling you, guys,
23:29
Speaker 1: I not that I ever doubted my homes. But when
23:32
Speaker 1: it was twenty four nothing, I was done. I had
23:34
Speaker 1: a buddy watching with me because I don't usually watch
23:36
Speaker 1: the book for playoffs. I kicked him out, head over
23:39
Speaker 1: to my girlfriend's place. And by the time I get
23:42
Speaker 1: like I'm getting texting these guys, I just go airplane
23:44
Speaker 1: mode because I'm just getting cursed out by all these guys.
23:46
Speaker 1: And I had one guy messaging me he actually took
23:50
Speaker 1: I told you guys, he took them. First half. Put
23:52
Speaker 1: a grand to win, seventy k on the Chiefs to
23:55
Speaker 1: win straight up in the first half, down nothing. Let's
23:57
Speaker 1: explain some people can put that in context. The Chiefs
24:00
Speaker 1: are down twenty four nothing. The line on them to
24:04
Speaker 1: win the first half seventy one. It was three at
24:08
Speaker 1: as high as three plus three seventy for the game,
24:11
Speaker 1: and so seventy to one. He put a thousand dollars
24:14
Speaker 1: down when they were down. Wanted to be more max
24:18
Speaker 1: him because they didn't want that kind of liability. They
24:20
Speaker 1: let him only put a thousand on it. Can we
24:22
Speaker 1: I just want to discuss something about this game. The
24:25
Speaker 1: despite the fact that it was twenty four nothing, it
24:27
Speaker 1: wasn't like a real twenty four nothing. Everything went right
24:31
Speaker 1: for the Texans, nothing went right for the Chiefs. There
24:33
Speaker 1: was no sense that the Texans were kicking the Chiefs,
24:37
Speaker 1: but there was on the scoreboard. It was awful. But
24:41
Speaker 1: when my friend called me up and said, oh my god,
24:44
Speaker 1: I'm so excited I have I'm gonna win this game
24:46
Speaker 1: is as great to have the Texans. You know, Well,
24:50
Speaker 1: it's interesting you say that because the night before the
24:53
Speaker 1: Titans Ravens, it did feel like the Titans were kicking
24:56
Speaker 1: their ass and it did feel like a dominant, a
24:59
Speaker 1: dominant before a ments. Whereas you're right, the Texans there
25:02
Speaker 1: were some flukey things happened. There were there were they
25:04
Speaker 1: weren't converting third downs the Chiefs. They had a fumbled punt,
25:08
Speaker 1: they had um just some really flukey things happened to
25:12
Speaker 1: them to give the Texans that lead. And I would
25:14
Speaker 1: say that it was. It might have been the cheapest
25:17
Speaker 1: line ever for a team up twenty four nothing. It
25:21
Speaker 1: was like minus one ten or something like that. I
25:24
Speaker 1: swear to God it was like. And so when I
25:26
Speaker 1: called my friend, I said, they got no chance. The
25:28
Speaker 1: Chiefs are coming back. And then I did a psychological
25:31
Speaker 1: trick on myself and I go, oh my god, the
25:34
Speaker 1: Texans are too cheap with the twenty four point lead,
25:37
Speaker 1: and I put two bucks on the Texans. That was silly.
25:40
Speaker 1: So your guy, so your guy is a grand in
25:43
Speaker 1: down nothing. But I'm saying to this guy might have
25:48
Speaker 1: like nothing compared to me like I had. I was
25:49
Speaker 1: send you guys. I had a lot of money in
25:50
Speaker 1: the Chiefs futures and I had a dese amount of
25:52
Speaker 1: the game. This guy has a lot on the Chiefs.
25:55
Speaker 1: And what I said, Dame, I said, I don't like
25:57
Speaker 1: it just because they were dropping passes. I just was
26:00
Speaker 1: one of those things where everything could go wrong for
26:01
Speaker 1: the Chiefs was gonna go wrong. And I thought, I
26:04
Speaker 1: said to him, hey, that's not a terrible bet, but
26:07
Speaker 1: because the value, but there's zero chance that the Chiefs
26:11
Speaker 1: are gonna come back and win this. So I put
26:12
Speaker 1: him on put on airplane mode. I've drive in my
26:17
Speaker 1: friend's house and by the time I got there, so
26:19
Speaker 1: it might have been like a twenty minute drive. It was,
26:22
Speaker 1: so I turned my phone back on off airplane mode,
26:24
Speaker 1: and it's just like all these guys going crazy. Best. Yeah,
26:27
Speaker 1: you knew it, man, you do you should. I'm so glad.
26:29
Speaker 1: I'm so glad, and in value also because these guys
26:31
Speaker 1: rolled this money over and I think what was that
26:34
Speaker 1: the fifty one to seven they outscored him. From that
26:37
Speaker 1: point on, they scored They scored uh one points in
26:41
Speaker 1: three minutes, and anyone listening those this does not happen
26:46
Speaker 1: as something that's been doing this for a long time.
26:48
Speaker 1: You will not see teams come back from that kind
26:50
Speaker 1: of death de sit unless they have a quarterback like
26:52
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes and the weapons he has. So I think
26:56
Speaker 1: it was more that I did get lucky, for sure,
26:59
Speaker 1: But it's always such trust your own system, because I
27:01
Speaker 1: was telling you guys, I had that in my thirteen
27:02
Speaker 1: and a half, so in my mind I was saying
27:04
Speaker 1: this line was off when the game started. Yeah, I
27:06
Speaker 1: look like an idiot, but if you live bet like
27:09
Speaker 1: I'm not a huge live better, but at halftime. Of
27:11
Speaker 1: course I poured it onto the Chiefs because at this
27:13
Speaker 1: time I was like, this is over. The Texans are
27:14
Speaker 1: going to be defeated. And yeah, you can say we
27:18
Speaker 1: got lucky that they did that, but that's more than
27:20
Speaker 1: just trust in your system and the number and knowing
27:22
Speaker 1: that all these things are going wrong. It flipped. As
27:25
Speaker 1: soon as they went for in that fake punt, that
27:27
Speaker 1: whole game flipped a twenty four. At that point. They
27:29
Speaker 1: steamed roll them out and there was no way when
27:31
Speaker 1: they came back for the second half, then Kansas City
27:35
Speaker 1: wasn't gonna win this game and kill them. Yeah. Yeah,
27:37
Speaker 1: the fake put was a total game changer. Uh in
27:42
Speaker 1: the second half. What was the number you bet on
27:45
Speaker 1: the Chiefs at the second half? I would have to
27:48
Speaker 1: look at my ticket again. I think it was honestly
27:50
Speaker 1: minus nine minus nine. Yeah, and that was by the
27:53
Speaker 1: time the second half kicked off, Like that money is
27:56
Speaker 1: minus six hundred or something. Right, Well, they were only
27:59
Speaker 1: up by four. Again. It's like I was just upset,
28:02
Speaker 1: as guys gonn be pictures. They got Chiefs plus nine
28:04
Speaker 1: because they took them live, and I go, why did
28:06
Speaker 1: I not trust myself? Because that was just so mad.
28:08
Speaker 1: I mean, when you lose that kind of money, especially
28:10
Speaker 1: when I'm game with other people's money, it's just a
28:12
Speaker 1: really kick to the balls and you're just like, I
28:14
Speaker 1: don't want to watch me die, Like I gotta, I
28:17
Speaker 1: gotta get out of here. At twenty four nothing, it
28:19
Speaker 1: got the plus nine and a half. That's the highest
28:21
Speaker 1: I saw. Yeah, that's what A lot of guys took
28:23
Speaker 1: it out and and like I said to them that, yeah,
28:27
Speaker 1: this is a great opportunity, this is a great spot.
28:29
Speaker 1: But never in my mind did I see that game
28:31
Speaker 1: playing out that way. You can't predict these things. That's
28:33
Speaker 1: why football is so great. It's so unpredictable. So as
28:37
Speaker 1: smart as I came off to them, I was just
28:39
Speaker 1: like them where I gave up. I had walked away
28:41
Speaker 1: and they didn't. So they were the smarter betters than
28:44
Speaker 1: That is just awesome. I think that was the best
28:46
Speaker 1: our best story of the year. I mean, it's so great.
28:48
Speaker 1: What a story. It's a pretty great story. Anytime you
28:50
Speaker 1: can get a guy who won seventy thousand dollars, a
28:55
Speaker 1: thousand dollars and a thousand dollars mashed out at the half,
28:58
Speaker 1: go get suburban seriously, let's tell to my best one.
29:01
Speaker 1: I got a lot of these guys like we do.
29:03
Speaker 1: They love futures. In my big future before the playoffs
29:06
Speaker 1: is Titans six one one, six out of one. That
29:11
Speaker 1: that was the odds I gave out to a lot
29:12
Speaker 1: of guys. Yeah, and these are big money guys, so
29:16
Speaker 1: it's gonna be funny to see where they go. Because
29:18
Speaker 1: my biggest bet was the Chiefs. I loved. I mean
29:21
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl or what the anc answerable?
29:23
Speaker 1: My biggest super Bowl for Titans. Yeah. But my big
29:27
Speaker 1: thing was then was Week sixteen. I said to them,
29:30
Speaker 1: I didn't believe the pitture We're gonna lose to Miami.
29:32
Speaker 1: But I said, hey, guys, we're already taking Miami. There's
29:35
Speaker 1: value in this. Why not we do a couple of
29:37
Speaker 1: Chiefs futures. So I got a couple of guys with
29:40
Speaker 1: chief screen Bay plus like eight thousand, a couple of
29:43
Speaker 1: like yeah. So there's a lot of guys out there
29:45
Speaker 1: with good value. Week sixteen because all these things were
29:47
Speaker 1: so crazy, like the Eagles, I had Eagles versus Chiefs
29:51
Speaker 1: if that had worked out plus thirty thousand, because Eagles
29:53
Speaker 1: had to be a Dallas. Yet what was what was
29:56
Speaker 1: the uh someone bet this? I noticed it in a
29:59
Speaker 1: or A noted in in a tweet of mine. What
30:01
Speaker 1: was the odds? When the before the Patriots Titans game
30:05
Speaker 1: of the Titans to get to the conference championship game,
30:10
Speaker 1: there was some I mean that was that turned out
30:11
Speaker 1: to be a good bit. People thought they'd be crazy.
30:13
Speaker 1: They had to run through before because because you just said,
30:17
Speaker 1: they had to go through Tom Lamar and then my
30:20
Speaker 1: homes because when I took when I took the Titans,
30:22
Speaker 1: none of that was set. They still had to, like,
30:25
Speaker 1: you know, do that b S game that we unfortunately
30:27
Speaker 1: took care about, and then the next week they had
30:29
Speaker 1: to beat the Texans. But I'm trying to think, honestly,
30:33
Speaker 1: this this run reminds me the way their team is
30:35
Speaker 1: playing of that Giants team was. Yeah, So that was
30:41
Speaker 1: one of those where people this week they're gonna be
30:44
Speaker 1: back in the Titans because they obviously won money on them,
30:47
Speaker 1: and the people that got burned by the Titans, they're
30:49
Speaker 1: probably gonna be back in the Titans again. So that's
30:50
Speaker 1: gonna be a really public dog this week where I
30:54
Speaker 1: can see why because these people are gonna believe in
30:56
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, but I can't do it like I have
30:58
Speaker 1: this line again at thirteen with the Chiefs, So in
31:02
Speaker 1: my mind, all this values can be on the Chiefs again,
31:04
Speaker 1: even though they had this incredible comeback and everything like that.
31:07
Speaker 1: How are you gonna attempt fate where the Titans are
31:09
Speaker 1: going to be that team of destiny the sixth seed.
31:12
Speaker 1: We're due for a six seed to make the super Bowl.
31:15
Speaker 1: But everything I look at it is just one of
31:17
Speaker 1: the things where they're just getting the right things. That
31:20
Speaker 1: New England played one of the worst games of the year.
31:22
Speaker 1: They didn't score a point in the second half, Thans
31:24
Speaker 1: one by one. Now they played Baltimore, who I'd had
31:28
Speaker 1: to look at the stat again. I'm pretty sure Baltimore
31:31
Speaker 1: had three fourths in one stopped right, something crazy like that, Yes, yes, yes,
31:36
Speaker 1: and then they had a missfield goal, so it was
31:39
Speaker 1: something crazy where they had five red zone trips were
31:41
Speaker 1: no points. So that's what worries man. Let's talk about
31:44
Speaker 1: these games a little bit. Let's we can start with
31:45
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Titans. And by the way, Simon
31:47
Speaker 1: mentioned his Twitter handle at Simon hunter tan later today
31:52
Speaker 1: is the Twitter handle and he's basically just given out
31:55
Speaker 1: a lot of the things that we talked about on
31:57
Speaker 1: the show um as well as just sort of other
31:59
Speaker 1: things things that he's thinking about and giving up picks
32:01
Speaker 1: that uh he is that he is going to be
32:04
Speaker 1: playing himself. And so if you want to check it
32:07
Speaker 1: out at Simon Hunter tan Um Chiefs times, we'll talk
32:10
Speaker 1: about that game. First number seven and a half. Bob
32:14
Speaker 1: Scucci earlier today said, wise guys coming in on the Titans.
32:17
Speaker 1: You're telling me there's still value on the on the
32:19
Speaker 1: Chiefs because you have it at thirteen and a half,
32:22
Speaker 1: So why aren't I playing the Chiefs. Well, it might
32:25
Speaker 1: be one of those things where I told you on
32:26
Speaker 1: the last time I was on here. Wise guys can
32:28
Speaker 1: do stuff that mess with people, Like I told you
32:31
Speaker 1: that wise guys are bedding down the bills to get
32:33
Speaker 1: Houston at two and a half where that number land.
32:36
Speaker 1: So he might be right that sharp guys are gonna
32:39
Speaker 1: be coming and bedding that down. But if I'm if
32:42
Speaker 1: I'm sitting here with my money and I'm trying to
32:45
Speaker 1: wait and get good value on the dog, it's at
32:47
Speaker 1: seven and a half, So people are gonna go in
32:49
Speaker 1: now and take that number where I'm fine with sitting
32:53
Speaker 1: back because yeah, you could say it's a key numbers seven,
32:55
Speaker 1: seven and a half extra points are no no longer
32:57
Speaker 1: unlock anymore. So like most sharps now they've viewed six
33:00
Speaker 1: as a keynote. See that's an interesting insight I've never
33:02
Speaker 1: heard before. Okay, when the game has just changed, just
33:04
Speaker 1: because like when I do when I run my models,
33:07
Speaker 1: a lot of times you have to put into the
33:09
Speaker 1: account of that kicker missing an extra point. It sounds stupid,
33:12
Speaker 1: but if you go through all the numbers this year,
33:14
Speaker 1: it's rare or two and a half matters this year.
33:15
Speaker 1: I think it mattered three times, which if I told
33:18
Speaker 1: you that five years ago, does not make sense. And
33:20
Speaker 1: two and a half rarely did the number fall in
33:23
Speaker 1: two two and a half A home favorite of two
33:25
Speaker 1: and a half is used to be an automatic take right,
33:28
Speaker 1: and now it's it makes you think maybe I just
33:30
Speaker 1: take the dog two and a half because that number
33:32
Speaker 1: falls onto a lot. So it's funny that he said
33:34
Speaker 1: they're coming in now betting on it, where I can
33:37
Speaker 1: see why people are gonna see all the value of
33:39
Speaker 1: the Titans. Derrick Henry is we have never seen anything
33:42
Speaker 1: like it since Riggins, I think in the seventies with Washington.
33:45
Speaker 1: So if you're gonna be back in the Titans, you're
33:47
Speaker 1: kind of back in team of destiny that's riding or
33:50
Speaker 1: running back, that's asking that qbing not to do a
33:52
Speaker 1: lot that has had everything go their away. I mean truly,
33:57
Speaker 1: And I know people are gonna look at the chief
34:00
Speaker 1: just had one of the best games of the year
34:02
Speaker 1: coming back. But to me, that was just a really
34:03
Speaker 1: bad game. It took them a minute to get their
34:05
Speaker 1: get their wheels go. I mean they were I would
34:09
Speaker 1: say they're drops early on was kind of things where
34:11
Speaker 1: they were putting all the pressure on themselves where they're
34:13
Speaker 1: like in the not instead of just being in the
34:15
Speaker 1: moment playing the game, they're overthinking every little thing they're doing.
34:17
Speaker 1: Like Travis Kelseya dropped on third down. I hadn't seen
34:20
Speaker 1: that all year. That's when I was like, I'm screwed
34:22
Speaker 1: this Chiefs. That's dead. Like these guys are done. So
34:24
Speaker 1: you you you think there's there's ten points, it should
34:28
Speaker 1: be Chiefs minus ten instead of minus seven. And now
34:31
Speaker 1: I said, I gotta chief minus thirteen and I think that, Yeah,
34:35
Speaker 1: people are going to take into account that I'm doing
34:37
Speaker 1: the whole season when I put my data in, and
34:39
Speaker 1: you can't do that because they've changed since yeah, since Mariota.
34:43
Speaker 1: You know, you know what I did on the change
34:45
Speaker 1: of the Dolphins. That was my money maker. That is
34:48
Speaker 1: very true. That's to look for their different teams completely.
34:51
Speaker 1: But what I'm seeing from this number is that they're
34:56
Speaker 1: giving you two seven a half this week and they're
34:58
Speaker 1: saying to you, which dog do you like more? Because
35:01
Speaker 1: everyone's gonna do that. No one's gonna go both dogs
35:03
Speaker 1: because it's kind of one of those things where you
35:05
Speaker 1: know that's probably not gonna work out. And I love
35:08
Speaker 1: Green Bay this week. I love I know, and I
35:11
Speaker 1: know a lot of people are gonna be on the
35:12
Speaker 1: other side. But if you go through the way football is,
35:17
Speaker 1: if a team blows out a team during the regular
35:19
Speaker 1: season and then they meet up in the playoffs, I mean,
35:22
Speaker 1: it might be a three percent chance the same fran
35:24
Speaker 1: can have that same kind of game they blow them out,
35:26
Speaker 1: and there's just so much value on Green Bay. Like
35:31
Speaker 1: if you if you just were a blind resume and
35:34
Speaker 1: you took out all the little things where you got
35:36
Speaker 1: the Bosa and San France defense and just all the
35:38
Speaker 1: weapons they having offense, and green Bay has been bad
35:42
Speaker 1: all year. I mean I've watched them all year. I've
35:44
Speaker 1: tried to fade them all year and it's not really worked.
35:47
Speaker 1: And it's one of those things where seven and a
35:50
Speaker 1: half is way too many points for Rogers to be
35:53
Speaker 1: laying in a conference championship game. I think people need
35:56
Speaker 1: to take a step back and think themselves. Am I
35:58
Speaker 1: really laying seven and a half with Jimmy? Is that
36:00
Speaker 1: really something you want to do against Aaron Rodgers's the thing,
36:04
Speaker 1: I'm gonna poke some holes in your Look. Wait, by
36:06
Speaker 1: the way, I'm plus seven and a half Tennessee and
36:09
Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. And by the way, I'd
36:11
Speaker 1: probably lead both those ways too. That's why I'm so surprised.
36:14
Speaker 1: Like to me, I haven't I'm having a hard time
36:16
Speaker 1: with the Chiefs Titans, But the Niners are just to me,
36:21
Speaker 1: a singularly better team than the Packers, who have been
36:24
Speaker 1: frauds every fast and and so everything you're telling me
36:27
Speaker 1: is like kind of empty logic, whereas like you are
36:31
Speaker 1: very numbers driven and you are very thoughtful about the
36:36
Speaker 1: systems and the process that you put together to make
36:39
Speaker 1: your numbers and then decide how to make your bet.
36:41
Speaker 1: So the fact everything you're telling me is like, I
36:43
Speaker 1: can't bet against Aaron Rodgers at plus seven and a half.
36:46
Speaker 1: I'm not going to put money on Jimmy g at
36:48
Speaker 1: minus seven and a half. Like that's what the that's
36:50
Speaker 1: what squares do. That's not like what Simon Hunter professional
36:53
Speaker 1: better does for sure. And it's one of those where
36:57
Speaker 1: like I have this line at seven, so it's not
36:59
Speaker 1: great value either way. Like Vegas was smart hanging the
37:02
Speaker 1: line because I saw a bunch people as soon as
37:03
Speaker 1: they hung seven, they pounded San Francis because that looks
37:06
Speaker 1: like a great number. But what I'm saying to these
37:08
Speaker 1: people is that in football, the best team rarely wins
37:13
Speaker 1: and the playoffs. I mean, that's what made Brady so
37:16
Speaker 1: great was that this guy was always a favorite, had
37:20
Speaker 1: all the hype, and he always showed up where I
37:23
Speaker 1: don't know, I don't I've never seen San fran in
37:25
Speaker 1: this spot before. And they're coming off their best game
37:28
Speaker 1: of the year if you like, I had a lot
37:30
Speaker 1: of money on them in that Vikings game. If you
37:33
Speaker 1: just watch that game, they dominated, Vikings did not have
37:35
Speaker 1: It was seven seven, right, early on. After that it
37:37
Speaker 1: was over because the san Fran just turned into another
37:39
Speaker 1: gear and they dominated him. Now, if you go through
37:43
Speaker 1: the season, san Fran at home have not been great.
37:46
Speaker 1: They don't really have a home field. And I just
37:50
Speaker 1: love that. This is kind of the perfect storm of
37:54
Speaker 1: you have to throw out some of the numbers because
37:56
Speaker 1: if you do, just look at the numbers, I mean,
37:58
Speaker 1: it's not even close. How much better all around of
38:00
Speaker 1: a team san France is then Green Bay? What's your
38:03
Speaker 1: system show on on this? What should should should be seven?
38:08
Speaker 1: So you're not getting any crazy value where in this
38:10
Speaker 1: Chiefs Titans game. I think you're getting great value on
38:12
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. But that's why these people listening, they're they're
38:15
Speaker 1: probably just like you, guys. They're probably gonna do the
38:17
Speaker 1: same exact thing as you. They're probably gonna go Titans
38:19
Speaker 1: san France because that just feels right. So that immediately
38:22
Speaker 1: should be red flax to everyone betting at what I'm
38:25
Speaker 1: interested in because I I have I'm I'm thinking about
38:30
Speaker 1: the total here in the really really in Chiefs Titans
38:35
Speaker 1: because I think people are like, yeah, they scored fifty one, man,
38:38
Speaker 1: it's fifty three? Is there? I'm just I need to
38:42
Speaker 1: move to a key number here, so I gotta push it.
38:44
Speaker 1: So it's like, what is it fifty two? What's my
38:48
Speaker 1: next key number? That no, it said, well at fifty
38:51
Speaker 1: three now, but like, could I get it hit another key?
38:54
Speaker 1: I need to go one more? What's my next key number?
38:57
Speaker 1: At the fifty two? Already said? You like the Titans? Yeah,
39:01
Speaker 1: in your mind you have to if you're like, you
39:03
Speaker 1: don't have a system, You're just going off gut. So
39:05
Speaker 1: you like the Titans. What do you think? How's this
39:06
Speaker 1: playoff for the Titans to cover and win this game?
39:10
Speaker 1: I mean, like, what it's going to be? The score?
39:12
Speaker 1: I'm just in your mind, you're thinking, you like the Titans. Here,
39:15
Speaker 1: how do they win this game? I think I think
39:17
Speaker 1: they cover by Derrick Derrick. Derrick Henry being able to
39:22
Speaker 1: run for a hundred hundred fifty yards won't score a touchdown,
39:26
Speaker 1: Fade Revelle. He will not score touch on any fashion,
39:29
Speaker 1: throw it, run it whatever, um. But I think he'll
39:33
Speaker 1: be able to run and the clock will move. And
39:37
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, despite the fact that the Chiefs can
39:40
Speaker 1: can can in three plays score thought shown Okay, but
39:44
Speaker 1: that's what That's what I think so I think it
39:45
Speaker 1: will be a yeah. So that's where I'm at right now?
39:52
Speaker 1: Are actually so I have seven? Has? So maybe thirty
39:55
Speaker 1: one and it would have so Like in your mind
39:58
Speaker 1: when you do these things, you should ask yourself that
40:00
Speaker 1: be like what do they need to do for me
40:02
Speaker 1: to cover this number? And will that go lean to
40:04
Speaker 1: the over to the under? Because playoffs is weird where
40:06
Speaker 1: that's a fun exercise. I actually haven't done it, Like
40:09
Speaker 1: what would the score have to be? Yeah? And you
40:12
Speaker 1: write that down, you look at and you think does
40:13
Speaker 1: that feel right? And then you you have to come
40:16
Speaker 1: back to because I always help people, don't bet right
40:18
Speaker 1: when you're going through the whole process. Don't bet right
40:20
Speaker 1: away because your mind's gotta changed during the week. Your
40:23
Speaker 1: thoughts of the game will change. So in my mind,
40:26
Speaker 1: I don't see Derek Derek ca Yeah, he's gonna be
40:28
Speaker 1: a factor. He always is. But they go down fourteen
40:30
Speaker 1: nothing to the Chiefs. That under beets dead because Taniell
40:34
Speaker 1: can throw it. They he has weapons to throw it.
40:37
Speaker 1: So I actually would take that over, and I take
40:39
Speaker 1: the under in that same Frand game. See, I would
40:41
Speaker 1: take the over now because I don't like again when
40:43
Speaker 1: I work out the numbers. I don't. I don't I
40:48
Speaker 1: need a fifty five fifty I need I need a
40:50
Speaker 1: little bit higher on that. Simon Hunter, you have blown
40:53
Speaker 1: my mind here. I was all over Titans plus seven
40:58
Speaker 1: and a half, under fifty two and a half, probably
41:02
Speaker 1: over forty and nine Ers minus seven seven and a half,
41:08
Speaker 1: and you're basically telling me they're all bad. Everything I
41:11
Speaker 1: want to do is wrong. And mind you, I'm practically
41:14
Speaker 1: a professional better what were you this year in your
41:17
Speaker 1: two twelve and three and five point seven, which is
41:24
Speaker 1: insanity when you consider that you're forcing yourself to bet
41:27
Speaker 1: every game and not taking shots. And I'm sure people
41:29
Speaker 1: point out you lose money on the big with that.
41:32
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's why I like, I tell people
41:34
Speaker 1: all the time, like my clients, don't beat every game
41:35
Speaker 1: because the VIG. If you're out here be k, you're
41:38
Speaker 1: you're spending t K a VIG worth a long term now.
41:41
Speaker 1: So that's why everyone's not doing it. But someone like me,
41:44
Speaker 1: I love doing all the games. I was spending fifty
41:47
Speaker 1: I spent I bet fifty dollars on every game, so
41:53
Speaker 1: there was an initial pot of eight hundred dollars that
41:57
Speaker 1: I did with my buddy, and we ended up because
42:01
Speaker 1: of the vig and choose and I'm like, we're not
42:02
Speaker 1: always getting the best of the number, and it's all
42:04
Speaker 1: in the action network got like, you know, anyone can
42:06
Speaker 1: sort of track what the juice was on every bet
42:08
Speaker 1: that I made, uh toft or bust we ended up winning.
42:13
Speaker 1: We basically double their money. Damn Yeah, yeah, that's the dream.
42:18
Speaker 1: So well, that's what I said. I think it was
42:20
Speaker 1: week three or four. I told people that the way
42:22
Speaker 1: I the easiest betting style and advice I ever got
42:25
Speaker 1: was like this past week the Titans, you put three
42:28
Speaker 1: units on the number, so whatever that is thirty dollars
42:30
Speaker 1: for you on Titans plus ten, and you put ten
42:32
Speaker 1: bucks on the money line. Because those money line dogs
42:35
Speaker 1: that eat your big Eventually at the end of the year,
42:38
Speaker 1: all these money money dogs, they'll counts out any big
42:40
Speaker 1: you had. So that's why people have asked me, like
42:42
Speaker 1: people have reached out on there and they asked me
42:44
Speaker 1: if I were buy numbers like ever by half a point.
42:46
Speaker 1: I never ever buy half a point because I'm betting
42:49
Speaker 1: so much. If you're a weekend better where you never
42:52
Speaker 1: really bet and you're watching a game for the first
42:54
Speaker 1: time or whatever. It's the numbers three, Yeah, dude, by
42:56
Speaker 1: three and a half. Like you're not losing that much
42:59
Speaker 1: money on the VIGs. But if you're doing it all
43:01
Speaker 1: the time, never by the number, whatever happens. That's how
43:05
Speaker 1: it is meant to happen. Don't play for the push
43:07
Speaker 1: or buy the kick the hook just to get that
43:10
Speaker 1: one bet one because long term plus too much money.
43:12
Speaker 1: It's never worth it. It's never worth it. Make a
43:14
Speaker 1: bet minus one forty just long term. And you look
43:16
Speaker 1: at that when you look at like points bet when
43:19
Speaker 1: it allows you to buy every when you when you're
43:21
Speaker 1: looking you see every half point and you're seeing it
43:23
Speaker 1: goes minus when twenty four minus, and you're like, that's
43:27
Speaker 1: the one thing that I've learned as a new better
43:29
Speaker 1: that how much are you paying for? That is a
43:32
Speaker 1: really big point. And I would say to people that
43:34
Speaker 1: are if you're gonna buy points, just do a teaser,
43:36
Speaker 1: because I already hate teasers. Teasers to me are a
43:39
Speaker 1: sucker bet just because most of the times you cover anyway,
43:41
Speaker 1: you don't even need the tease. But if you're gonna
43:43
Speaker 1: be buying points, yeah, do a teaser, because like, not
43:47
Speaker 1: even sent the time, the teaser is what's going to
43:49
Speaker 1: save you instead of buying that little hook where you're
43:50
Speaker 1: gonna lose the bet anyway. So if anyone new to gambling,
43:54
Speaker 1: I'd always say don't start on teasers, to start straight
43:56
Speaker 1: bets because a long term you're not gonna lose as
44:00
Speaker 1: much doing straight bets, and you will teasers because instead
44:03
Speaker 1: of winning one game, you gotta win to That's why
44:05
Speaker 1: teasers are such a soccer bet parlays were the highest
44:08
Speaker 1: winning percentage in New Jersey this year, thirteen point one
44:11
Speaker 1: winning percentage on the parlay. No surprise. Simon Hunter has
44:15
Speaker 1: taught us so much this year about betting. It's insane.
44:18
Speaker 1: It's insane, all right. So the to to to recap
44:22
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter is on the over fifty two and a
44:25
Speaker 1: half fifty three in Chiefs Titans. He's on the Chiefs
44:29
Speaker 1: at minus seven and a half all the way up
44:31
Speaker 1: to all the way up to infinity because this game
44:33
Speaker 1: is not kidding. But he's on the Packers under Packers,
44:39
Speaker 1: Niners under forty five, and on the Packers at plus
44:42
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Of all of all of the
44:47
Speaker 1: games we just discussed, all of the sides and totals.
44:49
Speaker 1: We just discussed your packer take might be the flimsiest
44:53
Speaker 1: take you've given you in twenty weeks on the podcast.
44:57
Speaker 1: I agree, just because the difference of the prety not like.
45:00
Speaker 1: I just think the evidence doesn't show that this forty
45:03
Speaker 1: Niners team is so much better. Simon and I are
45:07
Speaker 1: doing a side bed right now. I'm down with that,
45:09
Speaker 1: But I think the big pause of dollars definitely their
45:18
Speaker 1: coach is a first year coach. How many for sure
45:21
Speaker 1: coach has been to the Super Bowl? Not many? So
45:23
Speaker 1: that's a Bill Callahan. That's a big pause for me
45:26
Speaker 1: right there, because so now you're walking it back. No, no, no,
45:29
Speaker 1: Now you want to say how you're afraid about me.
45:32
Speaker 1: Definitely scared. I'm like already in vacation mode. But no,
45:37
Speaker 1: I get. I get you're saying anyone out there that's
45:40
Speaker 1: like sitting there saying that's a dumb bed to take
45:42
Speaker 1: Green Bay and share next week, I'm like, like an idiot,
45:45
Speaker 1: But I just think the value is really there on
45:46
Speaker 1: Green Bay, the number and the money line. I just
45:48
Speaker 1: really liked this spot for them. I hope you're wrong
45:50
Speaker 1: because I want in my pool. I want Sampson's going
45:53
Speaker 1: to the super Bowl. So then I've got all teams
45:56
Speaker 1: in the super Bowl, and I'm just thinking about all
45:59
Speaker 1: the other bets I can make during the game to
46:00
Speaker 1: triple my money. And with someone with a Chiefs big
46:04
Speaker 1: Chiefs future, I hope it's not saying France, we want
46:07
Speaker 1: to be friends in this side, right. I asked one
46:11
Speaker 1: last question. Okay, we gotta go, we gotta go. One
46:13
Speaker 1: last question. Uh So when you have a humongous week
46:16
Speaker 1: like you just had, I know this is what you do,
46:20
Speaker 1: but would you ever if this is not the playoffs,
46:23
Speaker 1: if it was like Week five of the NFL, would
46:25
Speaker 1: you ever consider sitting out if you didn't love it?
46:30
Speaker 1: Because that's what people say, like you got your spots now.
46:33
Speaker 1: I mean those guys that are picking their spots, they're
46:35
Speaker 1: picking spots on big bets that I agree with. If
46:37
Speaker 1: you're going big on a bet, like when I went
46:39
Speaker 1: really big on the Chiefs one, that's picking a spot
46:41
Speaker 1: like I bet more in the Chiefs game, and I
46:42
Speaker 1: probably did from But sitting out is not not not
46:46
Speaker 1: now because every week there's always gonna be a value.
46:48
Speaker 1: I mean, even when you're wrong on a game, there's
46:50
Speaker 1: still value in that game. You that's we have to
46:52
Speaker 1: trust yourself, Darren. He's a professional. Do you take days
46:55
Speaker 1: off only have six months out of you to work?
46:57
Speaker 1: Let me rephrase that kidding, kidding, Darren, I'm kidding. It
47:02
Speaker 1: was a joke. Simon Hunter professional better. Uh. We're gonna
47:06
Speaker 1: do this again before the super Bowl, Darren Revel professional
47:09
Speaker 1: wise guy, and I mean that in every term. You're
47:11
Speaker 1: gonna do this again with us before the super Bowl.
47:13
Speaker 1: You and I are gonna be in Miami for the
47:15
Speaker 1: super Bowl for interviews. Yeah, books for interviews. Right. This
47:19
Speaker 1: has been the favorites from the Action Network. Download the
47:22
Speaker 1: podcast at Apple podcast down Let's Spotify downloaded from the
47:26
Speaker 1: radio dot Com app. Search for the favorites until next time.
47:31
Speaker 1: We will see you again before the super Bowl. Love you,