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Bills vs Chargers Preview + Predictions · Alex Brasky: Unfiltered

0:00
SPEAKER_00: In the heart of Bill's mafia, this is Alex Brasky Unfiltered, Buffalo's most polarizing football show.
0:06
SPEAKER_00: No hot takes for flicks, no sugar coating, just bold opinions, insider perspective, and unfiltered Bill's talk.
0:15
SPEAKER_00: Let's go.
0:20
SPEAKER_00: Hello, everybody, and welcome back by Popular Demand.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: This is Alex Breski Unfiltered, your first stop for raw, honest takes on the Buffalo Bills and more.
0:31
SPEAKER_00: Please like, share, rate, and subscribe to the podcast, and also leave a comment on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast.
0:42
SPEAKER_00: All right.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: Welcome in.
0:44
SPEAKER_00: It should be an exciting show as we gear up for Bills versus Chargers week three on Sunday afternoon.
0:51
SPEAKER_00: A lot of injuries to talk about this week on both sides, both teams coming in a little bit banged up.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: And I also didn't get a chance to react to the Bills' win over the Lions, so I want to get to that as well.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: But first off, first order of business, of course, the injuries.
1:08
SPEAKER_00: And on the Bills side, a few significant ones that they are dealing with.
1:12
SPEAKER_00: Ed Oliver, DJ Moore, and Keon Coleman, the most notable among them.
1:17
SPEAKER_00: Oliver and Moore both have missed practice one day this week.
1:22
SPEAKER_00: Keon Coleman has been held out two days this week.
1:25
SPEAKER_00: We'll get to Moore and Oliver first off the jump.
1:29
SPEAKER_00: DJ Moore dealing with an AC joint sprain in his shoulder.
1:32
SPEAKER_00: Or Red Non contact jersey on Wednesday, did not practice on Thursday.
1:36
SPEAKER_00: I think he still has a chance to play despite being downgraded to a DNP on Thursday.
1:43
SPEAKER_00: Previously, under the previous regime, Sean McDermott as head coach, if we saw that happened, it would really trend toward the player not playing.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: But I think this could be a matter of just wanting to get DJ Moore as much rest as possible leading into Sunday's game.
2:00
SPEAKER_00: They tested out that shoulder on Wednesday when he was limited.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: And in order to give him as many days off the field as possible, they downgrade him to a DNP on Thursday.
2:10
SPEAKER_00: At least that's how I view things.
2:12
SPEAKER_00: And listen, this is a guy who always plays five straight years.
2:17
SPEAKER_00: He's played 17 games during the regular season.
2:20
SPEAKER_00: And if you talk to Bears fans, that was something that a lot of them in my comments, when the Bills made the trade, they were saying this guy will be banged up.
2:29
SPEAKER_00: He will battle through injury.
2:31
SPEAKER_00: Uh, he will play week in and week out.
2:33
SPEAKER_00: And then when you go look at his Pro Football reference page, sure enough, the last five years he's played in every single regular season game.
2:41
SPEAKER_00: So I have confidence that Moore will still suit up on Sunday against the Chargers.
2:46
SPEAKER_00: He also spoke with reporters after Wednesday's practice, said, quote, will be good regarding his injury status.
2:52
SPEAKER_00: And he also mentioned the pain tolerance being the uh ultimate hurdle that he has to get over in order to suit up against the Chargers in week three.
3:02
SPEAKER_00: But it's it's no guarantee that he plays, but I do think based on his history and and based on how we saw him interact with the media and what he said to reporters on Wednesday, I think that he'll suit up on Sunday.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: And listen, will that be his full uh slate of snaps?
3:22
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: We might see a little bit of load management from the Bills, we might see DJ Moore used as a decoy.
3:27
SPEAKER_00: We've seen how big of an impact he's made since that trade was made, and he just makes everybody around him better.
3:35
SPEAKER_00: So his presence on the field is a positive in and of itself, even if he's not at full strength.
3:41
SPEAKER_00: So I think he plays.
3:42
SPEAKER_00: Whether or not we see him at 100% capacity remains to be seen.
3:47
SPEAKER_00: But at the very least, throw him out there as a decoy, allow others around him to flourish.
3:52
SPEAKER_00: If he can't play, it goes without saying it'd be a huge loss.
3:55
SPEAKER_00: According to Joe Biscalia, I was listening to Joey Football, his new podcast uh that he started this year, a very valuable resource for fans and also media alike.
4:06
SPEAKER_00: You hear some of these other reporters during the press conferences, and I was one of them previously, who would use Joe's research to kind of forge their analysis and create their questions.
4:21
SPEAKER_00: So uh very valuable stuff from Joe.
4:23
SPEAKER_00: The Bills' yards per play against the Lions after DJ Moore was hurt went from nine yards to five yards.
4:31
SPEAKER_00: The depth of target in the passing game went from 11 yards to four yards after Moore got hurt, and then Dalton Kincaid was hurt, well, impacted specifically.
4:42
SPEAKER_00: His depth of target went from 17 yards to seven yards after Moore's injury.
4:47
SPEAKER_00: So if Moore can't play against the Chargers, that's going to likely create a different look for the Bills passing game and how they go about things.
4:56
SPEAKER_00: So it'll be interesting to see how they adjust if that is indeed the case.
5:01
SPEAKER_00: As far as that Oliver is concerned, he suffered a hip injury in pregame warm-ups before the game against the Lions.
5:08
SPEAKER_00: Did not practice on Wednesday.
5:10
SPEAKER_00: He returned to practice on Thursday and looked pretty good in the videos that I saw.
5:15
SPEAKER_00: Plenty of reporters out there posting them on social media.
5:20
SPEAKER_00: I think he's got a better chance to play than I initially thought on Wednesday, obviously, with the return to practice.
5:25
SPEAKER_00: And not only that, no red contact, no red non-contact jersey for Oliver.
5:30
SPEAKER_00: And like I said, looking good in those videos from the practice field.
5:34
SPEAKER_00: I am a bit concerned that he's turning into an injury prone player.
5:38
SPEAKER_00: He's undersized for his position.
5:40
SPEAKER_00: And according to Travis Yost on X, X, excuse me, he's missed 23 games since 2022-23.
5:47
SPEAKER_00: And it's just becoming a common theme for Oliver to see him on the sideline in key games.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: And although the Bill's defensive line has looked fantastic, even without him against the Lions, he's such a key asset for this Buffalo resistance that they need him to get well.
6:04
SPEAKER_00: They need him at full capacity, come playoff time.
6:08
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but I am a bit concerned that he's becoming an injury-prone player.
6:12
SPEAKER_00: If Oliver cannot play on Sunday against the Chargers, likely will be replaced by the combination of Dwayne Carter and Landon Jackson.
6:20
SPEAKER_00: Also, maybe some Greg Gaines mixing in there.
6:23
SPEAKER_00: I know that Carter and Gaines are more used at that nose tackle spot while Landon Jackson is more that four-eye technique.
6:31
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but there's not a lot of numbers up there and not a lot of quality numbers for the Bills.
6:35
SPEAKER_00: TJ Sanders is also out for this game after undergoing an ependectomy earlier this week.
6:41
SPEAKER_00: So he'll be out for probably about two to three weeks.
6:44
SPEAKER_00: Hasn't played at all this this year, a bad start to his career.
6:47
SPEAKER_00: But there's not a lot of options, let alone quality options for the Bills at defensive tackle if Oliver cannot play.
6:54
SPEAKER_00: So look for Dwayne Carter, Lana Jackson, maybe Greg Gaines to mix in.
6:58
SPEAKER_00: A lot of positive reviews from Dwayne Carter in the early going, and we'll touch on this a little bit later.
7:03
SPEAKER_00: I haven't seen as many.
7:04
SPEAKER_00: Uh, the stats don't necessarily prove it either, but I'll trust some of these analysts that are high on Dwayne Carter's prospects moving forward.
7:14
SPEAKER_00: I was very critical of the Bills keeping him on the 53-man roster this year.
7:18
SPEAKER_00: So if you go based on what a lot of those analysts say, he started the season hot, and we'll see if he can carry that forward.
7:25
SPEAKER_00: Not the same for Jackson.
7:26
SPEAKER_00: I don't think he's really done much, if at all.
7:29
SPEAKER_00: So uh something to follow there.
7:31
SPEAKER_00: If Oliver can't go, I think it would be a big spot for Jackson in this game.
7:35
SPEAKER_00: The Bills also signed Austin Johnson for his second stint with the Bills, signed him to their practice squad.
7:41
SPEAKER_00: They previously lost edge rusher Andre Jones Jr., who signed with the Miami Dolphins 53-man roster.
7:47
SPEAKER_00: So Johnson, another potential option at defensive tackle after signing to the practice squad.
7:52
SPEAKER_00: He was with the Bills in 2024 with the Jacksonville Jaguars last year.
7:57
SPEAKER_00: Let's get to Keon Coleman.
7:59
SPEAKER_00: While I think Moore and Oliver have good chances to play, I don't think Keon Coleman has a good chance to play.
8:07
SPEAKER_00: He's been out of practice both days this week, Wednesday and Thursday, with that ankle injury that forced him to exit the field momentarily during that win over the Lions.
8:16
SPEAKER_00: He did return against the Lions and finish the game and played quite well against Detroit.
8:21
SPEAKER_00: And if DJ Moore can't play, he would be very, very much needed this week.
8:25
SPEAKER_00: But I don't think the Bills are going to have him.
8:27
SPEAKER_00: It could be uh, I thought it could be precautionary on Wednesday, but seeing him not practice on Thursday certainly raises the concern level.
8:36
SPEAKER_00: But in a way, I'm sure it excites Bills fans.
8:39
SPEAKER_00: While it's very disappointing for Keon Coleman, right when he starts to get things going, uh and an otherwise disappointing start to his career, a big spot last week with DJ Moore exiting that game, Keon Coleman steps up and performs well, finishing the game with, we'll get to the stats here in just one second, as my page is refreshing.
9:02
SPEAKER_00: Coleman finishes that game with six receptions, 63 yards.
9:08
SPEAKER_00: Uh, so a very impressive performance from Coleman.
9:11
SPEAKER_00: And just when he starts to get things going, it's a little bit disappointing to see him sideline.
9:15
SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, a little bit exciting for Bills fans is that could mean that rookie Skyler Bell gets his NFL regular season debut this week against LA.
9:25
SPEAKER_00: Bell had a great game in the Bills' final preseason game uh this this year, but he's been a healthy scratch each of the first two weeks just due to numbers.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: If Moore and Orr Coleman can't go, that would almost surely mean that Bell will be elevated and not elevated, excuse me, but active for this Sunday's game.
9:47
SPEAKER_00: It's not a guarantee, but if both players are out, I think it would kind of trend toward a guarantee.
9:55
SPEAKER_00: If it's just Coleman out, I think it's probably a 75% chance that Bell plays, while Greg Dorch could also play a role on offense.
10:05
SPEAKER_00: He's already been elevated from the practice squad twice.
10:07
SPEAKER_00: He only has one more elevation before he runs out of those for the regular season.
10:11
SPEAKER_00: So uh maybe we see him elevated to the 53-man roster if Coleman's injury is of concern, and maybe we see him used a little bit more on offense, regardless if he's elevated from the practice squad or uh moved to the 53-man roster.
10:25
SPEAKER_00: So two options there if Coleman's out andor more, Skyler Bell and Greg Dorch.
10:31
SPEAKER_00: A few other injuries here, or one particularly, Ty Johnson, uh the Bill's third-down running back, dealing with a hamstring injury.
10:39
SPEAKER_00: He's been out the first two weeks, trending toward a return, though, in week three.
10:45
SPEAKER_00: His replacement, Frank Gore Jr., has looked pretty good through two weeks, especially as a pass blocker, which is one of Johnson's key roles as that third down back.
10:55
SPEAKER_00: Hasn't done a whole lot aside from that, but I've been impressed with how Gore has fared early in this season.
11:05
SPEAKER_00: If I were to guess on the Bills' injuries, like I said before, I would say DJ Moore and Al Oliver play.
11:11
SPEAKER_00: TJ Sanders obviously does not play, and Keon Coleman does not play as well.
11:17
SPEAKER_00: I think Ty Johnson will be back as well this week.
11:20
SPEAKER_00: So uh those are the Bills' injuries there, and a lot to be concerned with as far as the wide receiver core.
11:27
SPEAKER_00: The passing game has been so explosive through two weeks, you'd hate to see more and or Coleman go out, but certainly a possibility heading into this game with LA.
11:37
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's take a look back on a few takeaways from the first game inside New High Mark Stadium before moving to a preview of the game between the Bills and Chargers.
11:50
SPEAKER_00: It was just an incredible atmosphere.
11:52
SPEAKER_00: I was in attendance in the 200 level, and it I had watched the previous fuse open sessions, whether it be the open practices or the preseason games, from 300, 400 level, and some from the lower bowl in the 100 level.
12:10
SPEAKER_00: But this time I was able to work my way into the club section, and let me tell you, it was quite the experience.
12:17
SPEAKER_00: Food was uh pretty good, I would say not disappointing, but not all that I was expecting on the food side.
12:26
SPEAKER_00: But then again, there were quite a few options and and plenty of concession stands to go to in that club area, and also I I just love the convenience of being that club area, especially when winter rolls around.
12:39
SPEAKER_00: You can duck inside if you want to in between quarters at halftime.
12:44
SPEAKER_00: Uh bathrooms are a little bit better of a situation.
12:48
SPEAKER_00: So really impressed with the club level.
12:51
SPEAKER_00: And Bradley Chubb called the game and in the pregame intros and everything the craziest experience ever.
12:57
SPEAKER_00: And uh, I don't know if I'd go that far.
12:59
SPEAKER_00: I've experienced some crazier atmospheres in professional sports, whether it be a playoff game or or this, that, or the other thing.
13:07
SPEAKER_00: But I'll tell you what, this this was right up there with some of the best that I've been in attendance for.
13:12
SPEAKER_00: It all started with the great giveaway that the Bills uh had during the game, the the nice key to the stadium, uh with a nice message for Bills fans saying, Welcome home, and the stadium is yours and everything.
13:25
SPEAKER_00: So a nice touch there.
13:26
SPEAKER_00: The pregame intros, the production.
13:28
SPEAKER_00: 10 out of 10 for the for the hype video before the game really pumped up the crowd and gave me the chills a little bit.
13:34
SPEAKER_00: And then when Josh Allen ran out for the first time and the fan base just completely exploded, definitely got goosebumps for that.
13:41
SPEAKER_00: And then the legends in attendance: Bruce Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Stevie Johnson, Fred Jackson.
13:47
SPEAKER_00: Uh, it was really a who's who.
13:50
SPEAKER_00: And I'm hearing that Lee Evans is going to be the legend of the game this week against the Los Angeles Chargers.
13:55
SPEAKER_00: So some more excitement there.
13:57
SPEAKER_00: But as far as after the game started, Josh Allen, as expected, scores the first touchdown inside the stadium.
14:04
SPEAKER_00: Uh, Bills go on to win.
14:07
SPEAKER_00: Even the new grass field inside the stadium held up very, very well.
14:11
SPEAKER_00: So the Bills really knocked things out of the park, and there was a lot of controversy surrounding the stadium leading into the home opener.
14:18
SPEAKER_00: But beginning with the red end zones, and like I said, the pregame production, the game itself, the team's performance could not have gone much better for the Buffalo Bills.
14:28
SPEAKER_00: And I think that they quieted some of the concerns surrounding the new stadium and made their fans extremely happy with the performance they put forth against Detroit.
14:40
SPEAKER_00: And as far as that performance, it all started with Josh Allen, an AFC Offensive Player of the Week performance.
14:47
SPEAKER_00: He was also named FedEx Aaron Ground Player of the Week for the second consecutive week.
14:52
SPEAKER_00: It was the 19th time in his career that he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.
14:57
SPEAKER_00: And that is more than anybody in the NFL since he entered the league.
15:01
SPEAKER_00: So that just goes to show you how quickly Allen has risen to become the best player in the NFL and certainly on an MVP track once again.
15:12
SPEAKER_00: And you're just running out of superlatives at this point.
15:15
SPEAKER_00: I know that Richard Sherman, after the game, tried to make Allen's performance uh even more legendary.
15:22
SPEAKER_00: Finishes with five touchdowns, 60 yards rushing, 248 more through the air.
15:29
SPEAKER_00: And Sherman tries to add the cherry on top by claiming Allen was shivering in the hot tub and had the flu.
15:37
SPEAKER_00: Allen dispelled those rumors this week, said it was just a little hell head cold, head cold, excuse me, and not that big of a deal.
15:45
SPEAKER_00: But boy, it was just outstanding to watch him perform out there again this past week.
15:53
SPEAKER_00: And going up against this Chargers pass defense, which is a little banged up, I expect another big game from Allen this week.
16:01
SPEAKER_00: And there's just no other quarterback, let alone player in the NFL in Josh Allen's class.
16:06
SPEAKER_00: Uh, other quarterbacks need good situations, a good offensive coordinator, personnel changes from year to year.
16:13
SPEAKER_00: And I know that DJ Moore seems to have made a big impact in the early going in the passing game, but it just doesn't matter.
16:19
SPEAKER_00: Allen, year after year, proves he's the best player in the league.
16:22
SPEAKER_00: And I don't think there's really a close second at this point.
16:25
SPEAKER_00: Uh, I know that Patrick Mahomes has performed really well to start the year.
16:29
SPEAKER_00: There's been some other quality performances.
16:31
SPEAKER_00: Caleb Williams in week one really showed out before exiting week two with what's become a highly polarizing injury.
16:40
SPEAKER_00: But this Bill's offense is clicking, and it's it's pretty much all due to Josh Allen.
16:45
SPEAKER_00: I know that James Cook had a phenomenal week last week, and I'm the last person who wants to uh downplay that.
16:51
SPEAKER_00: But Josh Allen is just the straw that stirs the drink for this offense.
16:56
SPEAKER_00: And the Bills are first in yards per play this season, first in EPA per play, yards per play, 7.1 yards per play, EPA per play, plus 0.31.
17:07
SPEAKER_00: They're second in success rate.
17:09
SPEAKER_00: They're gaining 9.2 yards on average when presented with first and 10 opportunities.
17:14
SPEAKER_00: I believe 7.9 yards per play on first down opportunities just in general.
17:20
SPEAKER_00: It's it's been explosive, it's been efficient, as ESPN's Mina Kimes pointed out earlier today.
17:28
SPEAKER_00: Josh Allen, best player in the league, and the Bills offense right now, best offense in the league.
17:34
SPEAKER_00: And it's really, really been impressive to watch.
17:40
SPEAKER_00: All right, pause for a moment.
17:42
SPEAKER_00: Please like, share, and subscribe the podcast.
17:44
SPEAKER_00: Give us a rate on the audio side, share it with your friends, do whatever you can to spread the word and get people in on the action as we continue to preview these matchups, present our predictions, and reflect on them once they are complete.
17:59
SPEAKER_00: But we will move along and we'll talk about the Bills' wide receiver core in this game against the Lions.
18:06
SPEAKER_00: Another big reason for success: DJ Moore, obviously, exiting this game, but Joshua Palmer stepping up, Keon Coleman stepping up.
18:15
SPEAKER_00: It's the second straight game to begin the season.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: Palmer finds the end zone after not finding the end zone a single time last year, just one reception for 43 yards, but it goes for six as Palmer makes the most of his performance against the Lions.
18:28
SPEAKER_00: While we already told you, told you, Keon Coleman, six receptions, 63 yards.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: And Dalton Kincaid, really a rising superstar in this league.
18:37
SPEAKER_00: The health has been the most positive thing.
18:39
SPEAKER_00: He's been on the field throughout training camp, preseason, and to start the regular season.
18:44
SPEAKER_00: I don't think he's missed a practice yet.
18:46
SPEAKER_00: And he's not listed on the injury report as far as I can remember today.
18:49
SPEAKER_00: So seven receptions, 95 yards, and a touchdown in this game for Dalton Kincaid, and just simply phenomenal once again from him.
18:56
SPEAKER_00: And I'm expecting a big, big game for him in this game against the Chargers.
19:00
SPEAKER_00: The Chargers allowed a huge game to Trey McBride in week one, the Arizona Cardinals tight end.
19:06
SPEAKER_00: We'll discuss that a little bit more later.
19:08
SPEAKER_00: But uh just a big game for him in that one.
19:11
SPEAKER_00: And I'm expecting Dalton Kincaid to do much of the same to the Chargers pass defense in this game.
19:17
SPEAKER_00: And that's all to say that we haven't even seen Skylar Bell yet.
19:21
SPEAKER_00: Who knows?
19:22
SPEAKER_00: Perhaps Keon Coleman's out this week, and we see Skyler Bell step in there and deliver a coming of age performance in his NFL regular season debut.
19:30
SPEAKER_00: So uh this Bill's passing attack, receiving core, just incredibly, incredibly impressive.
19:37
SPEAKER_00: And uh I'm sure as the season goes, it's only going to get stronger.
19:41
SPEAKER_00: Now they have to get healthy, more needs to get well.
19:45
SPEAKER_00: Keon Coleman needs to return to the field, but really love what I've seen, and uh it's been phenomenal to watch.
19:51
SPEAKER_00: But James Cook got going in this game against the Lions, a slow week one.
19:55
SPEAKER_00: Still, he's number four in the NFL in yards rushing after a 100-plus yard performance against the Lions.
20:02
SPEAKER_00: 21 carries, 135 yards, and a touchdown, a long rush of 35 yards.
20:07
SPEAKER_00: He's behind only Kenneth Walker, Derek Henry, and Jameer Gibbs in yards rushing.
20:12
SPEAKER_00: So uh another chance for Cook to come home with a second straight rushing title this season.
20:17
SPEAKER_00: He's third in the league in rushing EPA, plus 4.4 on the year.
20:23
SPEAKER_00: And he is yet to get going in the passing game.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: I know there was a lot of discussing, discussion, excuse me, surrounding that this offseason and Pete Carmichael's addition to this offensive coaching staff and what he could do to help open things up for Cook as a receiver, but just four receptions, 14 yards through the first two games of the season.
20:44
SPEAKER_00: Uh, but that leaves something to the imagination.
20:46
SPEAKER_00: Perhaps the Bills have yet to unlock their full arsenal in that regard.
20:51
SPEAKER_00: Maybe we see some more there from Cook as the season goes along.
20:55
SPEAKER_00: But a good game for the offensive line in this game.
20:57
SPEAKER_00: They limit Aiden Hutchinson.
20:59
SPEAKER_00: Josh Allen has been kept upright pretty regularly through the first two games.
21:04
SPEAKER_00: Now, Alec Anderson in his first couple of starts as the starting left guard.
21:10
SPEAKER_00: Uh sack, five quarterback pressures and a penalty through two games.
21:14
SPEAKER_00: Many have said that he's been great through the first two games.
21:17
SPEAKER_00: I would say he's been closer to average, but still an encouraging start for Anderson nonetheless.
21:22
SPEAKER_00: Osiris Torrance has been really solid.
21:25
SPEAKER_00: I was critical of the Bills re-signing him.
21:26
SPEAKER_00: I don't think that Torrence is a bad player.
21:28
SPEAKER_00: I just don't view him as an elite player at his position, but uh he's been close to that through the first two weeks of the year.
21:37
SPEAKER_00: He and Spencer Brown have been very impressive.
21:40
SPEAKER_00: And then uh the defensive line for the Bills, obviously, again in this game, very, very impressive.
21:46
SPEAKER_00: Deion Walker, two massive passes defensed late in the game, wreaking havoc on the Lions, banged up offensive line.
21:53
SPEAKER_00: Greg Rousseau, two more sacks in this game.
21:55
SPEAKER_00: He leads the NFL with four and leads the league in high quality pressure.
22:00
SPEAKER_00: Per Brandon Thorne.
22:02
SPEAKER_00: Walker has six.
22:03
SPEAKER_00: He is a little bit down in the rankings, but Rousseau, first in the NFL in those high quality pressures with 11.
22:09
SPEAKER_00: And Greg Rousseau is only 26 years old.
22:13
SPEAKER_00: I've been critical of him in the past, has failed to deliver the sack production we all expected from a first-round pick, but still very young.
22:20
SPEAKER_00: Future could be very, very bright for Greg Rousseau.
22:23
SPEAKER_00: He kind of slowed down as the game went along against the Lions, but burst onto the scene like a bet out of hell to start that game, and we'll see what he has to offer this week against the Chargers, who are a little bit banged up up front as well.
22:35
SPEAKER_00: And we'll discuss that a little bit down the road.
22:38
SPEAKER_00: Bradley Chubb made a little bit bigger of an impact in this one.
22:41
SPEAKER_00: He's helped open things up for Rousseau, I believe.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: They're playing on their more natural sides of the defensive line.
22:46
SPEAKER_00: And also I can't remember who said it, but uh yeah, I can't remember who said it, so I'm not gonna do it.
22:57
SPEAKER_00: I don't want to steal anybody's words.
22:59
SPEAKER_00: So already talked about Dwayne Carter drawing rave reviews, a good game against the Lions.
23:05
SPEAKER_00: Uh still, I haven't seen it, but I'll trust the analysts out there that dissect the defensive line play a little bit more thoroughly than I do.
23:14
SPEAKER_00: Uh I'm still not ready to admit that I was wrong on him like I did with DJ Moore, but uh still a pretty encouraging start for Dwayne Carter to start the year.
23:26
SPEAKER_00: The linebackers are still a problem for the Bills.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: You haven't seen really glaring issues with Terrell Bernard or Dorian Williams, the team's two starters, but they're just not gonna cut it, I think, as long-term run stuffers.
23:39
SPEAKER_00: And I thought Williams was a little bit better than Bernard in this game against Detroit.
23:45
SPEAKER_00: But still, I think you could see Caleb Elarms or fit his way into the starting lineup by season's end just to give the Bills a different option.
23:54
SPEAKER_00: And Bernard's also appeared on the injury report in the early going.
23:56
SPEAKER_00: He was full on the injury report to end the week and maybe even to begin the week, but uh still a little minor blip of a concern in that regard.
24:05
SPEAKER_00: And a huge concern for the Bills, the biggest on the defensive side of the ball, certainly the secondary.
24:11
SPEAKER_00: And it all starts with Christian Benford.
24:14
SPEAKER_00: According to NextGen stats, Benford has been faced with a team high 18 targets in coverage this year, and he's allowed 10 receptions for 118 yards and two touchdowns on those targets.
24:27
SPEAKER_00: And he's been targeted 32% of his man coverage snaps through the first two games.
24:35
SPEAKER_00: And the Bills obviously transitioning to more man coverage this year under Jim Leonard, a previously zone-heavy scheme under former head coach Sean McDermott.
24:44
SPEAKER_00: And over the first two weeks, Christian Benford logged 24.
24:52
SPEAKER_00: Let's see, I didn't write this down correctly from next gen stats.
24:56
SPEAKER_00: Benford logged 24.
24:57
SPEAKER_00: Oh, excuse me.
24:58
SPEAKER_00: Benford logged 24 and 8 overall coverage snaps with Collins and St.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: Brown matched up opposite him respectively.
25:10
SPEAKER_00: And those two receivers accounted for 32 of his 69 total matchups through two games, which is 46.4%.
25:17
SPEAKER_00: So he's been matched up with two of the league's top receivers, 46.4% of his man coverage snaps through the first two weeks, but still that's less than half the time.
25:31
SPEAKER_00: And he's uh he's allowed 10 receptions, 118 yards, and two touchdowns, and uh in a couple big spots, too.
25:37
SPEAKER_00: So for this pass defense to really take a step toward being anywhere close to what it was a season ago, it all starts with Christian Benford.
25:44
SPEAKER_00: He needs to return to somewhere close to an elite level play because Maxwell Harrison, although he has fortunately not been targeted all that often through the first two games, seven targets, he's allowed four receptions, he hasn't been all that great.
25:58
SPEAKER_00: And although I praise Davison Igbenosa and the Bills' second-round rookie this offseason, I don't think he's ready to take on a full-time role either.
26:06
SPEAKER_00: The more I see from him, uh physical player, but still a little bit of a concern with those penalties in in pass coverage.
26:15
SPEAKER_00: So if Benford doesn't turn things around in a hurry and Puka Nakua gets healthy for the Los Angeles Rams, I think that matchup could get very ugly for the Bills in a few weeks here.
26:26
SPEAKER_00: Uh but another factor is the Bills pass rush.
26:31
SPEAKER_00: They've kind of helped erase some of the issues that the Bills have had on the back end and certainly made fans forget about them.
26:38
SPEAKER_00: But if the pass rush doesn't keep performing, that will spell trouble for the Bills secondary.
26:45
SPEAKER_00: And Jim Leonard needs to really start making a difference that Bills fans expected of him to start the season, or the chickens could come home to roost for this defense.
26:57
SPEAKER_00: We've seen smoke detectors, is what Leonard has has termed it through a few weeks.
27:03
SPEAKER_00: And Joe Brady said the house is not quite on fire yet.
27:07
SPEAKER_00: But if the pass rush stops performing, we could see this house catch on fire very, very quickly.
27:15
SPEAKER_00: One more concern in this game, special teams, Tyler Bass, a missed point after in this one.
27:24
SPEAKER_00: Five for six on point after attempts.
27:28
SPEAKER_00: So I was concerned with Tyler Bass this offseason, was already thinking he might cost the Bills a game at some point this season.
27:36
SPEAKER_00: And after missing a PAT in the second game of the year, I think it's only a matter of time before the Bills lose a game on account of Bass this season.
27:47
SPEAKER_00: All right, now let's dive into a quick, quick preview, excuse me, on Chargers Bills.
27:55
SPEAKER_00: And also a prediction for this third or excuse me, Sunday afternoon matchup.
28:01
SPEAKER_00: It looks like the Chargers are going to be without five starters in this one.
28:05
SPEAKER_00: Another injured team facing off with the Bills.
28:08
SPEAKER_00: Uh, the Lions were without both starting safeties, three starting offensive linemen last week.
28:14
SPEAKER_00: So despite a few injuries themselves, the Bills are certainly getting the breaks in the early going.
28:19
SPEAKER_00: And last year for the Chargers, it was their tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.
28:25
SPEAKER_00: And now it's their interior offensive line.
28:28
SPEAKER_00: As even though Slater was limited with a groin injury this week, the more pressing concern is starting left tackle, or excuse me, left guard Trey Pipkins.
28:37
SPEAKER_00: He did not participate in practice for two straight days with a knee injury.
28:40
SPEAKER_00: If he can't go in this game, it will be Trevor Penning for the Chargers, from what I gather from reporters out there in Los Angeles.
28:49
SPEAKER_00: And then the Chargers' other starting guard, Cole Strange, was limited early in the week with a peck injury.
28:56
SPEAKER_00: He's since returned to full practice.
28:58
SPEAKER_00: So a little bit banged up there as well.
29:01
SPEAKER_00: And on the outside of the offensive line, or the exterior, I should say, Chargers missing two tight ends, Charlie Kohler, David, and Joku.
29:11
SPEAKER_00: That leaves Aronde Gadston to leave uh a bigger role for him this week.
29:18
SPEAKER_00: He's a threat down the seam, is Gadson, according to I can't remember the name of the gentleman, but listening to the Lockdown Bills podcast this week, that's what he termed Gadson as.
29:31
SPEAKER_00: He has four receptions this year on four targets, 50 yards receiving and a touchdown.
29:37
SPEAKER_00: So without Njoku, without Kolar, Njoku has been placed on the injured reserve.
29:42
SPEAKER_00: Kollar, not yet.
29:44
SPEAKER_00: Gadston is the top option at the tight end position.
29:48
SPEAKER_00: And somebody that the Bills secondary will have to contend with this week, particularly the Bills' safeties.
29:54
SPEAKER_00: Colt Bishop and CJ Gardner Johnson have not been particularly good in coverage.
29:59
SPEAKER_00: So we'll see if they can do a good job this week against Gadston.
30:03
SPEAKER_00: And the real threat in Los Angeles' passing game is Ladd McConkey, the slot receiver, extraordinary.
30:14
SPEAKER_00: He's been dealing with a rib injury the last couple weeks, but he returned to full participation this week.
30:18
SPEAKER_00: So shouldn't be any concern with McConkie for this week's game against the Bills.
30:24
SPEAKER_00: Elsewhere on the defensive side of the ball, starting nose tackle, Delvin Tomlinson did not practice the last two days with a hamstring injury, so he's trending toward not playing this week against the Bills.
30:35
SPEAKER_00: And starting inside linebacker, Thule Tupulotu was limited with a hamstring injury throughout the week as well.
30:45
SPEAKER_00: And then safety, Derwin James, the former all-pro, a cast on his finger.
30:49
SPEAKER_00: He's missed, I believe, four tackles through the first two weeks.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: Maybe that injury playing a role in his inability to wrap up on the defensive side of the ball.
30:59
SPEAKER_00: But uh he is gonna give it a go on this one with that cast on.
31:04
SPEAKER_00: But this is this is a busted-up car rolling down the freeway just after it hit a deer.
31:10
SPEAKER_00: This Chargers team is as injured as can be, and uh we'll see if the Bills can take advantage of it.
31:15
SPEAKER_00: But like I said, they're really getting the brakes as far as the injury bug is concerned on their opponent's side throughout the first two weeks of the season.
31:24
SPEAKER_00: All right, now a quick scouting report on the Chargers.
31:27
SPEAKER_00: We'll start with the quarterback, Justin Herbert.
31:29
SPEAKER_00: Through two weeks, he has not been very good.
31:31
SPEAKER_00: 23rd in the league in yards passing with 401 yards, 27th in the league in completion percentage, 59.3%, just two touchdowns to three interceptions, a 71.6 passer rating for Justin Herbert.
31:46
SPEAKER_00: One of the biggest issues for Herbert, he's been under duress quickly.
31:49
SPEAKER_00: The Chargers are 23rd in the NFL in terms of time to pressure allowed.
31:55
SPEAKER_00: And this could be a big week for Greg Rousseau, another one, and Deion Walker, also Bradley Chubb.
32:01
SPEAKER_00: Secondary has to be better, but I think particularly Walker with the Chargers missing uh Pipkins on their offensive line.
32:10
SPEAKER_00: I think he could really feast in this game.
32:13
SPEAKER_00: And I think one way the Chargers will try to combat that is using that quick passing game, getting their running backs involved, using Gadston as a potential safety valve for Herbert.
32:24
SPEAKER_00: And I mentioned McConkey already.
32:26
SPEAKER_00: He leads the team in receptions, and Joku was second on the team with six receptions.
32:32
SPEAKER_00: Wide receiver Quentin Johnson, really their second best option on the outside.
32:36
SPEAKER_00: He's been pissed poor this year.
32:38
SPEAKER_00: Three catches for, or excuse me, ten targets and three catches.
32:42
SPEAKER_00: So not a great catch percentage for him.
32:45
SPEAKER_00: But as bad as the Chargers passing game has been, the Bills cannot let them get high.
32:50
SPEAKER_00: You cannot ignite this group.
32:51
SPEAKER_00: You cannot let them hit the ground running in this game and find their way to a big day and gain a boatload of momentum entering the meat of their schedule.
33:00
SPEAKER_00: As far as the running game, that struggled for the Chargers.
33:03
SPEAKER_00: They're averaging just 3.9 yards per carry as a team.
33:06
SPEAKER_00: O'Marion Hampton is their leading rusher.
33:09
SPEAKER_00: He's averaging 3.9 yards per carry individually.
33:13
SPEAKER_00: His long rush of 17 yards and just two receptions on the year for him.
33:19
SPEAKER_00: So not much to worry about with the Chargers running game.
33:23
SPEAKER_00: And the Bills' run defense has been better this year than it was last year.
33:26
SPEAKER_00: They're about middle of the pack, allowing a minus 0.05 EPA per rush.
33:33
SPEAKER_00: I believe that's 16th best in the NFL.
33:36
SPEAKER_00: So you got to carry that forward.
33:37
SPEAKER_00: If you're the Bills this week, there's really no reason why the Chargers should be able to run on the Bills.
33:43
SPEAKER_00: Now, flipping it over to the defensive side of the ball, Chargers run defense has been phenomenal.
33:50
SPEAKER_00: They are allowing 2.7 yards per rush.
33:52
SPEAKER_00: That's the best in the NFL.
33:53
SPEAKER_00: It could be tough sledding for James Cook and the Bills running game this week, but the Bills passing game as a tasty matchup.
34:00
SPEAKER_00: They've been almost as bad as the Bills have the Chargers secondary.
34:04
SPEAKER_00: The Bills are seventh in the league in terms of EPA per pass allowed plus.20.
34:10
SPEAKER_00: The Chargers are eighth in the league plus.17.
34:14
SPEAKER_00: Their pass rush is 21st in pressure rate and 27th in sack rate, so really not getting to the quarterback either.
34:21
SPEAKER_00: You got to watch Derwin James in this one.
34:23
SPEAKER_00: Historically, he's been a quality defender, not having his best season to start the year, like I mentioned, battling through that injury.
34:29
SPEAKER_00: And the matchup to watch here is James and Kincaid.
34:33
SPEAKER_00: Kincaid really has fueled the Bills' passing game through both of their wins to start the season.
34:38
SPEAKER_00: While I mentioned Trey McBride's big game against the Chargers for the Cardinals in week one, nine receptions, 95 yards, and a touchdown for McBride in that game.
34:46
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure how much James was working against McBride, but he did allow five receptions while in coverage against the Cardinals.
34:54
SPEAKER_00: So Kincaid, a potential matchup to exploit there.
34:58
SPEAKER_00: And then in terms of the Chargers pass rush, we've all heard Khalil Mack's name throughout our years following the NFL.
35:05
SPEAKER_00: And uh for those of us around the Buffalo area, Mack also a University at Buffalo alumnus, a legend for the for the Bulls college football program.
35:14
SPEAKER_00: And Spencer Brown put it pretty perfectly earlier this week.
35:18
SPEAKER_00: He's not afraid of many opposing defensive linemen, but he said he was, quote, terrified of Khalil Mack early in his career, and he's hoping that he's not as timid this time around.
35:28
SPEAKER_00: Mack, one sack on the season, 11.8% quarterback pressure rate.
35:33
SPEAKER_00: He's in his 13th season in the NFL.
35:36
SPEAKER_00: So uh really still remarkable to see him uh be productive for the Chargers pass rush.
35:42
SPEAKER_00: And in short, as I mentioned with the Chargers passing game, just as a whole, you you can't allow this defense to really start rolling against you.
35:54
SPEAKER_00: The Bills' offense has been so explosive.
35:56
SPEAKER_00: You got to keep the passing game going.
35:58
SPEAKER_00: DJ Moore's status could play a big role in this one, but it it might be a week to use Josh Allen to help ignite the running game, call some more design runs for him.
36:08
SPEAKER_00: I know that he ran the ball 14 times last week.
36:13
SPEAKER_00: I'm not sure how many of those were design runs, but I'd like to see him above 10 rushes in this game as well to help the Bills move the ball and become a multi-dimensional team against what's a strong Chargers run defense.
36:28
SPEAKER_00: And finally, the last item of note entering this game before I provide my prediction, the Nickel City jerseys, or as they're less than affectionately known, the nickel shitty jerseys will make their debut this week for the Bills.
36:42
SPEAKER_00: The Bills practiced in the gray jerseys, the offense wearing them, the defense wearing white jerseys.
36:47
SPEAKER_00: I imagine that's in an effort to get Josh Allen accustomed to throwing to receivers with gray on and in those new uh blue charge symbol helmets.
36:57
SPEAKER_00: And this is the first of two times the Bills will wear them this season.
37:02
SPEAKER_00: It would be just like the Bills to lose their first game of the year in these ugly ass uniforms.
37:06
SPEAKER_00: They lost last year on the rivalry unis against the Patriots.
37:10
SPEAKER_00: And I swear to God, if they lose against the Chargers in these god-awful things, I might jump off the goddamn peace bridge.
37:17
SPEAKER_00: But the Bills have to win this game.
37:19
SPEAKER_00: They can't lose to an 0-2 team that's banged up after such a red-hot start to the season.
37:24
SPEAKER_00: There's been so many let-down games that the Bills have had to work through in the past.
37:29
SPEAKER_00: And I know they've always preached a good game, did so once again this week.
37:32
SPEAKER_00: It's not a trap game, not taking the team lightly, but they got to go out once again and prove it.
37:37
SPEAKER_00: Put the Chargers in the dirt.
37:39
SPEAKER_00: Don't give them any hope in this game.
37:41
SPEAKER_00: Go out there, assert your well, will in the early going, and just eliminate another potential challenge to the Bills in their race for a Super Bowl.
37:48
SPEAKER_00: This team, the Chargers, uh were a Super Bowl contender in everybody's eyes before the start of the season.
37:56
SPEAKER_00: Now that 0-2 start has kind of put a damper on that, but still, the Bills cannot ignite their quest to make the Super Bowl and become a playoff contending team.
38:07
SPEAKER_00: So my prediction in this game, I'm gonna go with the Bills.
38:10
SPEAKER_00: Give me the Bills to win 35 to 21.
38:13
SPEAKER_00: I just think the Bills are red hot right now, and the Chargers have looked just like pure dog shit through the first two weeks of the season.
38:20
SPEAKER_00: And they're injured uh to boot.
38:23
SPEAKER_00: They have two new coordinators, one on each side of the ball.
38:26
SPEAKER_00: Mike McDaniel coming over for the Dolphins.
38:29
SPEAKER_00: The personnel doesn't seem to fit what he's trying to do offensively.
38:32
SPEAKER_00: Well, on the defensive side of the ball, I believe his name is Chris O'Leary, just one season as a defensive coordinator, and that came at the college level in the Mac.
38:41
SPEAKER_00: So uh haven't loved what I've seen from either coordinator so far, and I think the Bills win this one by two touchdowns.
38:47
SPEAKER_00: Allen is playing at such a high level, you can consider this a trap game, but I just think Allen really is the ultimate matchup beater or trap game defeater in this case for the Bills.
39:00
SPEAKER_00: And we've seen an added fierceness, I think, from the Bills on both sides of the ball, mostly from Allen in the defensive line, but it's really impressed me.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: I sensed maybe some tentativeness from the Bills at times in the past, but they just seem to be cutting it loose through the first two games of the season.
39:16
SPEAKER_00: And I think they're really reflecting what Joe Brady has preached to them in the early going as head coach.
39:23
SPEAKER_00: And I really like what I've seen from him now.
39:25
SPEAKER_00: It's a long season.
39:26
SPEAKER_00: I'm still kind of holding out uh on planting my flag one way or the other with Brady as I did so definitively this offseason when I was forecasting a potential disaster.
39:37
SPEAKER_00: It hasn't transpired that way to begin the year.
39:41
SPEAKER_00: And I'll admit if I was wrong when the time comes, but just not quite ready to do that yet.
39:46
SPEAKER_00: But Josh Allen, I think, goes for three touchdowns in this game.
39:49
SPEAKER_00: I think Joshua Palmer finds the end zone for a third straight week.
39:52
SPEAKER_00: I think DJ Moore and Keon Coleman's potential absence open things up for Skylar Bell to see his rookie debut.
40:00
SPEAKER_00: And then I think Ed Oliver returns from injury, and I think he surprises people and gets a sack or two in this game as well.
40:06
SPEAKER_00: So Bills win by 14 points.
40:08
SPEAKER_00: They intercept Justin Herbert once, sack him three or four times, and hold the Chargers running game under 100 total yards rushing on the ground.
40:19
SPEAKER_00: All right, please, once again, like, share, rate, subscribe to the podcast as usual.
40:26
SPEAKER_00: Would really appreciate that.
40:27
SPEAKER_00: Both on YouTube, uh, Spotify, Twitter, wherever you'd like to consume the podcast.
40:34
SPEAKER_00: You can also download it wherever you get your podcasts on the audio side.
40:39
SPEAKER_00: And also be sure to follow along for breaking news, weekly podcasts.
40:42
SPEAKER_00: Also, much more coverage coming on Alex Brasky Unfiltered YouTube and Substack page.
40:48
SPEAKER_00: I've posted a bunch of stuff already to start the season and more coming this week.
40:52
SPEAKER_00: Three bold predictions for Sunday's game and a preview there as well.
40:56
SPEAKER_00: So Sunday, fast approaching a 1 p.m.
40:59
SPEAKER_00: kickoff inside the Bills New Digs.
41:01
SPEAKER_00: It should be a glorious day.
41:03
SPEAKER_00: Enjoy it, Bills Mafia.
41:05
SPEAKER_00: And above all else, have a great night, everyone, and stay true.