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Why NFL Teams Should Go For 2 Down 8 | If You Disagree, You Don't Understand Math · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: So with the Carolina Panthers having been the latest team
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: to do this last night, the debate is happening again.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Everybody questioning why would a coach possibly go for a
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: two-point conversion when the team scores the first of two
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: touchdowns that they need to score when they're down two
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: scores late in a game. So, for example, last night
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Carolina was down 27-13. They scored a touchdown with about
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: five minutes left in the game. Why would they go
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: for two in that situation and try to cut it
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: to 27 to 21 instead of 27 to 20? And
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: I'm here to illustrate why the people that are saying
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: that going for two is stupid and wrong. I am
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: here to explain as simply as I can why those
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: people are wrong and why it is correct to go
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: for two. In that spot, mathematically, I know everybody has
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: heard the math guys say that it's the correct thing. Well,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: I'm here to illustrate why that absolutely is correct. And
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: I'm going to use an extreme example, but it's also
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: a very simplified example just to illustrate the point and
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: really hammer home why. You have a greater chance to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: win the game if you do that. So let's simplify
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: this whole thing. First of all, let's assume that this
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: team is going to get both touchdowns. Let's assume that.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: They're going to get both touchdowns. They're going to get
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: that stop. The other team's not going to score. So
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: this team is going to get two touchdowns.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Okay? That's the assumption here.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: We're also going to assume that every two-point conversion is 50-50.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: They have a 50% chance to convert the two-point conversion,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: even though, yes, I know the actual percentage is like
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: 48% or something like that.
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: For simplicity, we'll say it's 50.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: But on the other side, we're also going to assume
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: that the extra point is 100%, even though in actuality
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: I think it's about 94%, maybe a little bit less
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: now that the NFL has moved it back.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: We'll assume that that's 100%. And we'll assume that in overtime,
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: it's 50-50.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: We'll assume that it's 50% for that team to win
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: if the game gets into overtime, even though obviously there's
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: going to be variance there. The better team is going
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: to have the better chance to win in overtime. So
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: it's not really going to.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: Be 50-50, but it'll be close to 50-50.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: And it also depends on who wins the coin toss,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: who gets the ball first, whatever. We'll assume all these
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: things just to illustrate the point. Illustrate the point, okay?
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: This team gets the first touchdown. Now, if they go
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: for the two-point conversion and they get it, so it's
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: a 50-50 shot, they make that two-point conversion, we're already
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: assuming they're already going to get the second touchdown and
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: the PAT is 100%, so we're assuming they're going to
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: make all that.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: They are going to win the game. That's it. 50-50,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: shot right there, they win the game.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Now... Compare that to if you're going to take the
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: extra point, which is 100%. So you're going to do that.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: You're going to do it again on your second touchdown.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: What does that mean? That means you're just tying the
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: game and it's going into overtime. So you're guaranteed to
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: have the 50-50 shot at that point. You're going to overtime.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: It's a 50-50 shot. But if you do what I
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: just said.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: And you go for the two-point conversion on that first touchdown,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: that in itself is a 50-50 shot to win the
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: game right there. Which means, obviously, because you're going to
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: get that second touchdown, you have another shot to go
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: for the two-point conversion. Obviously, that means already your chances
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: to win the game are greater than what you just
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: did playing just to go into overtime. It's going to
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: be greater than 50-50 because you already have that 50-50
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: shot right away. And if you make that two-point conversion
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: on that first touchdown, you won the game. But in
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: this scenario, if you do that, you're still only down eight,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: so you still have the chance to get into overtime
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: on the second touchdown. Yeah, it's a 50-50 shot to
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: even get the two-point conversion, and then on top of that,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: a 50-50 to win in overtime. If you miss the
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: first two-point conversion, your chances to win, assuming that you
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: get the second touchdown, your chances to win are 25%
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: at that point, right? You have to hit both of
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: those 50-50 chances, 25%.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: But even still, you.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Have that slim percentage chance to win on top of
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the 50% already. So if you had played just to
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: go to overtime, just kicking the PATs, that was a
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: 50-50 shot for you to win the game. But in
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: going for the two-point conversion... you increase your chances because
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: that right away is a 50-50 chance. You take on
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: the risk right away, and if you don't get it,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: your chance to win at that point is not zero.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: It's obviously greater than zero. And in this scenario where
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: I've simplified everything, it's actually you get an additional 12.5%
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: chance because it's that other 50%. You have the 25%.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So it's actually an additional 12.5%. So in this extreme example,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: you've increased your chance to win the game from 50%
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: to 62.5%. Now, in the real world, yes, it's not
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: that extreme, but you are still increasing your odds to
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: win by somewhere around 3% to 4%. That's the most
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: simplistic way that I can explain it. I hope that
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: illustrates it. I hope it hammers the point home, gets
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: it through. That's all I got to say. You should
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: go for two on that first touchdown in that scenario,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: and if you disagree with that, you're completely misunderstanding everything.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: You do not understand math, and it's plain and simple.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: You just don't understand it. And yes, you can make
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: the argument that it could affect the team's mental state
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: in a certain way, but I think taking the risk
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: up front actually helps your team's mental state because you
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: know what you need on the second try, if you
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: get that second touchdown.
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: So I don't think that's a good argument either.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: So if you think that a team is stupid for
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: going for two on that first touchdown, you're an idiot
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: and you do not understand math and you do not
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: understand how any of this works.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: You don't get it at all. That's all I got
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: to say. Peace out, Toadstool Sports.