Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | The Short Card | NHL & MLB NLCS & NCAA Football | 10/14/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | The Short Card | NHL & MLB NLCS & NCAA Football | 10/14/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby Look
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Now Hold on, hold on Not tonight, not now Hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: hold on Let me pull you out That fella fights
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: hard But he don't get the.
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you with Toadstool
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: Sports for Wednesday, October 14th. We went 2-1 on the
• 1:36
  Speaker 4: show yesterday. Could have possibly swept with the three plays.
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: We went with the frozen frenzy is what they call
• 1:43
  Speaker 4: it with every Hockey team in action. I think that
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: only happens once a year where literally every team is playing.
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: My reads were pretty good there, man. Philadelphia was the
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: only loss, of course, because they can't win a game.
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: They played all right in that game, and they came
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: back from down 2-0. They scored twice really quickly in
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: the third period. I'm like, here we go, man. They're
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: actually going to win this. Take it into overtime.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: Nope.
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: They lose in a shootout. But we got the other
• 2:10
  Speaker 4: two games right with the Chicago Blackhawks getting out to
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: a 3-1 lead. They blew the lead, and then it
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: was tied 3-3. They were able to retake the lead late,
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: and then they did put an empty net going at
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: the end. As an underdog like that, that's what you want, man.
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: You want a good enough performance to be in the game.
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: That is exactly what they did. They were able to
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: come out on top in that one. And Winnipeg, probably
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: the easiest of the wins. I was correct that Volstead
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: did not play in net for... Minnesota. They went with Pickard.
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: He was not good. He allowed all five Winnipeg goals
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: in the game, I'm pretty sure. I think there were
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: no empty netters or anything like that. They didn't switch
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: their goalie out, whatever. So yeah, I thought it was
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: a good spot play as well. We got it right
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: with Winnipeg. That was the easiest one of them all,
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: although it was tied early, but whatever. My total reads
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: in the NHL continue to be good. I said under
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: in Colorado, Dallas. I think that was correct. I said
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: over in... What was it? I'm going to look right now. Toronto, Utah,
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: that was correct. I said over in Vegas, Nashville, that
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: was correct. Although that was closer. Seven goals. Was there
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: an empty netter in this one? No, there was not.
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, I don't know, man. Should I
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: start giving out NHL totals again? I did two years ago,
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: and I think I won slightly with those. I think
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: they were pretty much all overs, but I don't know.
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: I'll lay off of it, but I don't really have
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: good reads on these games today anyway. The two hockey
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: games today are actually both pretty good. We're dealing with
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: some of the better teams in the league here. Every
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: team is on a back-to-back here, of course, because every
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: team in the league played yesterday. We do have Montreal
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: and Washington. Both these games are at night. Uh, as
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: far as these two teams, I thought Washington, um, would
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: put up a decent performance. They played, uh, Carolina yesterday.
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: That's a big game and they lost four to two.
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: If you look at this game though, it was close, dude.
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: I mean, it was a, it was a tied game
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: with seven minutes left or so in the game. And
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: then Carolina broke the tie. And then the last goal
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: was an empty netter. Washington played fairly well in the game,
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: although they did get outshot in the game though. Uh,
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: They got out-hit as well. They won the face-off battle,
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: but they were playing pretty close, so I don't really
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: want anything to do with Washington off a huge performance
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: like that. Even though I think both of these teams
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: are going to get up for this game, Montreal just
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: won in overtime yesterday against Buffalo. That's a decent win, too.
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: They play Buffalo again next, but that's revenge for Buffalo, really,
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: because Montreal eliminated Buffalo from the playoffs last year. So
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: I don't know if it means as much to Montreal.
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: But I still don't really want Montreal off of avoiding
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: the revenge scenario there against Buffalo. Still a pretty good win.
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: It went into overtime. I'd avoid both teams here. I mean, actually,
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: maybe I take it back about not talking about totals.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: I think you could maybe look at the over in
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: this game. The total is pretty high, 6.5. You might
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: be dealing with some lesser goalies here too. Let me see.
• 5:09
  Speaker 4: What does the goaltending setup look like here? Because I'm
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: wondering if because both teams had... Yeah, let me see. Actually,
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: Dobas might be hurt for Montreal. So I don't know
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: what they're going to do because he's missed the last
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: three games. So I don't know what Montreal is actually
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: going to do. Although it says he's active. Maybe they
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: just switched goalies because he wasn't doing that well. I
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: don't know. I mean, he wasn't. But maybe he's going
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: to be back in net here. Maybe that's actually not
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: a good thing for Montreal. And then for Washington... They'll
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: probably go with their second stringer, Lindgren, and they did
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: lose the one game that he played in, although it
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: doesn't look like he was that bad, though, against an
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: offensively potent Tampa Bay team there that still only scored
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: three goals in that game. But you will probably get
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: goaltending switches in these games today. So something to keep
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: in mind. So that might help the over in this
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: Montreal-Washington game. The money looks like it agrees with this.
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: 60% of tickets on the under, 62% of the cash
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: on the over. Of course, both teams, you know, they
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: played intense games yesterday. They have to turn around and
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: immediately do it again. Could mean the defenses are a
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: little bit less in this game. You know what I mean?
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: The defenses might be fatigued. I think fatigue generally on
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: a team, actually, it affects the defense more than the offense. So, yeah,
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: the over probably makes the most sense to me in
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: this game. Total, again, is pretty high, 6.5. It's that
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: way for a reason. As far as the side, Washington
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: is about a minus-130 favorite. They have 54% of the tickets.
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: Montreal is getting the actual money, though. 84% of the
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: cash on Montreal. I could see the argument for it.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, Washington coming off a really tough game against Carolina.
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: That was a big deal, falling basically just short of them.
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: I think that game probably meant a little bit more
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: to Washington than Montreal. Playing a game that probably meant
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: more to Buffalo, trying to get the revenge there. So
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't really disagree with the Montreal side in this
• 6:59
  Speaker 4: one either, but I would not really want it. And
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: then Dallas and Colorado. Colorado just went into Dallas and
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: beat them yesterday 3-2. If you look at the stats
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: in the game, though, Dallas did have some edges in
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: the stats. They actually won the physicality quite a bit.
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: They won the hits. They won the face-offs by a
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: huge amount. So it looks like they're winning the possession battle.
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: They only outshot Colorado by one. It was pretty much
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: a close game. I mean, it was kind of a
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: close game. It was 3-1 Colorado. for a brief period
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: at the end of the second period. Early in the third,
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: Dallas cut it back to one, but then there was
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: no other scoring in the game after that. But I
• 7:40
  Speaker 4: think it was a pretty close game statistically. It was
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: close on the scoreboard, too. I think Dallas played a
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: little bit better than it looks, although now they have
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: to go into elevation, play Colorado on the road here.
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: TNT True TV has this game. I would still be
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: leaning towards the zigzag here. I'd still be leaning towards
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: Dallas in this game if I was going to do
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: anything with it, just because they're the team that lost
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: the game yesterday at home. A lot of times you
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: want to look towards that team going back out on
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: the road and playing that same team again. Sometimes... things
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: will flip flop and that team will like fix things
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: that went wrong. The other team might take it a
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: little bit easier thinking, Hey, we just beat these guys.
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: We can do it again. You know? So I think
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: Dallas would be the way to look in this game.
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: As far as playing this game, the money seems to
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: agree with that. Colorado did move up from minus one
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: 40 to minus one 55 on the money line though.
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: So some initial money did drive that line up on them,
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: but it looks like the actual money is buying back
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: on Dallas here. As we see 72% of the tickets
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: on Colorado, 56% of the cash on, So it looks
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: like some of the real money may actually be agreeing
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: with me on Dallas here. And there's a slight lean
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: towards the over, although the public is also on the over.
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: I could still see the argument for it. It would
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: be similar to the argument I made for the over
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: in the other game. Although I like the over in
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: the Montreal-Washington game better than this one because these are
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: teams that just beat each other up pretty much physically.
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: It's that type of, uh, scenario usually between these two teams.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: So I still wouldn't really want to do it. Although
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: you're probably going to get Dallas's backup goalie here. Cause
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: it is a back to back. So it'll probably be
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: to Smith, although he's not really that bad. Uh, but
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: Ottinger's played the majority of their games. So they will
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: probably switch and Colorado will probably switch to Wedgwood. They
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: won the game that he played. I believe just Smith, uh,
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: was a loss in Dallas's only game where they played him. But, um,
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: Either way, I don't think he's really there. Actually, let
• 9:30
  Speaker 4: me see. Am I wrong about that? Let me see.
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: I just looked, and it didn't register with me.
• 9:33
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they lost.
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: It was only 2-1, though. But DeSmith is an experienced backup.
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: He's been Dallas' second goalie for a long time now, so...
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, these goalies still might do
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: all right, although that does kind of make me shy
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: away from Dallas a little bit more. You know what?
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: That might be the reason why the line moved on Colorado.
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: Maybe it was the goaltender switch, but you have to
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: think they already knew that because it's a back-to-back. like
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: you have to assume Dallas is going to use their
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: second string goalie here and I think he is lesser
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: than both of Colorado's goalies the two woods if you
• 10:07
  Speaker 4: will so I don't know uh those are my thoughts
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: on that on those two games though nothing there for
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: me I am going to have a play in the
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: MLB game here. NLCS is going on as Milwaukee has
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: a 2-0 lead now going to LA. This game, I
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: just think that we have a pitching mismatch here, and
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: I just think there's got to be motivation on one
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: side here, so I'm going to do it even though
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: the market read doesn't seem to agree with me on this.
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: I agree with myself on it, though. We're going to
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: take the Dodgers in the first five on the spread,
• 10:39
  Speaker 4: on the run line, minus a half run. They're such
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: a big favorite. This is the way to cut the
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: price down a bit at least. I was thinking maybe
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: full game, but then I was second-guessing it because the
• 10:49
  Speaker 4: market doesn't like it, but also Milwaukee's got the better bullpen,
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: and both bullpens are rested. So I don't think the
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: Dodgers have a bullpen edge here, but I think they
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: have a starting pitching edge and a motivation edge here
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: maybe because they're down 0-2. They're in desperation mode here.
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: We all know that if they fall down 0-3... It's
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: going to be over, you know what I mean? Unless
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: you're the Red Sox against the Yankees, which last I checked,
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: they are not. So that's not going to happen. Although
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: I will say that when the Red Sox did it,
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: they did have a setup like this where they were
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: at home for these middle three games. I do think
• 11:22
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers are going to have a good pitching setup
• 11:24
  Speaker 4: in this game and in the next game, assuming that
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee is going with a four-man rotation and they use
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: Dustin May tomorrow. I think the Dodgers set up to
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: win both these games, but we will actually see. I'm
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: kind of surprised that the public is as heavy on
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers as you would think. But yes, I'm going
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: to go with just the starting pitching matchup here. I
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: think we get the better offense with the Dodgers here,
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: even though both offense are capable. And I will point out,
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: I know the Dodgers have not done well against Milwaukee
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: here at home over the last two regular seasons. I
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: know that the last two regular seasons, Milwaukee is 6-1
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: in L.A., I know. They won all three games last
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: year and three out of the four this year. But
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: they played two postseason games in L.A. last year, and L.A.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: won both of those. So it's like, well, what do
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: you do with that? Milwaukee's been really good in L.A.
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: during the regular season, but during the postseason, it didn't
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: work out that way last year. So I'm still willing
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: to do this here. If you look at the team's
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: home road splits or whatever, regular season, Milwaukee was a
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: pretty good road team, although the Dodgers had a better
• 12:29
  Speaker 4: home record than road record. We need Otani to start hitting, man.
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: He's been awful. I don't know what's going on with him.
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: He's having a horrific postseason. But again, the Dodgers have
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: such a good lineup, I don't think it's even going
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: to matter as far as these purposes, as far as
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers getting this thing done here. I think the
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: hitting can come from a lot of different areas of
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: their lineup, so whatever, but I believe Otani did slump
• 12:54
  Speaker 4: during the postseason last year, and then he exploded at
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: some point during the World Series or something. I think
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: he was playing pretty poorly for a while, and then
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: he had a game where he, I don't know, had
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: five or six hits and had 10 RBIs or something
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: in the World Series, if I remember correctly, and still
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: didn't win the MVP for the World Series. Yamamoto did
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: because he had three wins, including pitching in back-to-back games
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: at the end of the series and getting a win
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: in Game 7 in relief, which is something a grinder does.
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: I have no idea why Yamamoto is so bad in
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: the game this series, but whatever. We're not talking about
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: Yamamoto here. One thing I will say is that Milwaukee
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: does have to go out west here, and you know
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: I talk about how I don't really like that, how
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: when more easterly teams have to go out west, kind
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: of adjust their bio clock for a later game. It's
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: not really as advantageous to them, although it's an 8 p.m.
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: eastern game, which isn't that bad, but still, they will
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: be playing until... you know, 10 p.m. on their bio clocks.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: So maybe that will hurt them a little bit here.
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: Even though I know I just said they played well
• 13:56
  Speaker 4: in LA when they played here. During the regular season
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: the last couple years, I know. Not during the postseason
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: last year, though. But a lot of this has to
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: do with the fact that the Dodgers are down 0-2.
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: We pretty much know if they lose this game, they're done.
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: So they've got to win this thing. We're only asking
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: them to be winning at the end of the first five.
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: Even though, yes, you might argue the price is too
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: high on the Dodgers here. And that might be the
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: main reason why the money doesn't seem to be coming
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: in on them. But look at this pitching matchup here, man.
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: We're getting Robert Gasser from Milwaukee here. He's not that good. 3.87 ERA, 1.19
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: whip looks all right on the season, but 4.36 road ERA,
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: so he wasn't that good on the road. He did
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: pitch once this postseason. He did all right against San Diego.
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: He only went four innings, though, so they're kind of
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: limiting him. He pitched in the postseason a little bit
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: last year, and I know that was his first postseason experience,
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: but he wasn't really that good. He went like two
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: and two-thirds innings across a couple of outings last year,
• 14:53
  Speaker 4: and he gave up two runs. That wasn't particularly good.
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: But what clinches it for me is that he doesn't
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: do well against the Dodgers. They have 48 career at-bats
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: against them. a 312 batting average, 1,076 OPS, 13-5 strikeout
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. And by the way, Otani is 0-7 with
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: four strikeouts off him. So like I said, the Dodgers
• 15:13
  Speaker 4: can do this damage without Otani, and that's what they
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: have done against Gasser hilariously. So yeah, if that keeps
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: repeating itself, the Dodgers should be able to score some
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: runs here. And the Dodgers are going with Blake Snell,
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: who has way more postseason experience. So he's not going
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: to be phased by this, even though he was really
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: wild in his one postseason appearance this year. Sometimes he is.
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: That's the one knock on him is he walks too
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: many guys, but he is usually really difficult to hit.
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: He has like a career postseason ERA in the threes,
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: which is not bad. Gassers, by the way, I think
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: it's like five something, although it's very limited in experience
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: for him. Snell has a lot more postseason experience. Snell
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: was good on the season. Of course, he's fresh. That's
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: the other thing. The Dodgers, like I said with Glasnow
• 16:00
  Speaker 4: in the last years, although I said it about Snell
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: as well, they didn't pitch that much during the regular season,
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: so you don't have to worry about the innings pitch.
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: You shouldn't have to worry about it anyway with veterans
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: like this, but they didn't pitch that many innings this
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: season because they were injured during the season, so they're
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: totally fresh and ready to go. Snell 1.9 ERA this
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: year when he did pitch 1.1 whip he was a
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: little bit worse at home 2.14 home ERA still really
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: good though he did hold Atlanta to one run when
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: he pitched in the playoffs this year so far the
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: one problem is like I said he walked five guys
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: in that outing in three and two thirds he was
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: extremely inefficient I mean, he threw 90 pitches in only
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: three and two-thirds. That's not good, but I think he's
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: going to settle down and pitch better in this one.
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: He's got good numbers against Milwaukee for the most part,
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: except the power numbers aren't really good. But we'll talk
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: about that in a second. 64 at-bats he has against Milwaukee.
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: 29 strikeouts, 9 walks. I mean, that's a fine ratio.
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: It's not bad. A lot of strikeouts. Snell is a
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: strikeout pitcher, even though he walks too many guys. He's
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: held him to a 172 average, but kind of a
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: high 727 OPS. It's higher than you'd think with that
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: batting average. That's because he's allowed five home runs to them.
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: All five have come from Gary Sanchez. Gary Sanchez, he
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: destroys like Snell and like nobody else in this lineup
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: does any damage against him. So it's only one guy
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: in this lineup that actually does any of this damage.
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: So if he can pitch around him, that should be
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: good enough. And Sanchez, I don't think he's that good
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: of a fielder at this point. So I don't know, man,
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: he might be, I don't know if he's going to DH.
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: Like Sanchez hasn't even played that much. I think, yeah,
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: he only has one at-bat in the postseason. It was
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: in the San Diego series. He pinch-hit, and he drew
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: a pretty crucial walk in that game, and they wound
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: up winning the game. I believe he drew a walk
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: against Mason Miller, if I remember correctly. That was that
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: game where San Diego overused Mason Miller, and he walked
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: three guys in a row. But Sanchez typically isn't even
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: in this lineup, although I guess he will be because
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: he destroys Snell so badly. He'll probably actually be in
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: the lineup for Milwaukee, or they'll probably DH him because
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: the National League uses DHs now because he's not a
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: good fielder. So that probably is what Milwaukee's going to do,
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: but I don't even care. This looks like it should
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: be a pitching mismatch for the starting pitching. We'll lay
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: the half run with the Dodgers here. I know it's
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: a little bit juicy at minus 125. That's in the
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: first five only. They need to be winning at the
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: end of five, but I think they can definitely do it.
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: The money doesn't agree with me, like I said. 71%
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 69% of the cash on the Dodgers. I
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: don't get it. Like, to me, it seems like the
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: public perception is not high on the Dodgers at this
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: point because Milwaukee's up 2-0 and the public overreacts to
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: what they saw last. You know what I mean? I
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: don't know if this is just a product of seeing
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: the pitching and, like, the public only knows one of
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: these two pitchers, which is Snell, obviously. Maybe that has
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: something to do with it.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: Minus 170-something is the price on the Dodgers, so I
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: think some of it might just be the price. It's
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: considered to be too high, but you see what I'm doing.
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: I'm going to knock the price tag down a little bit,
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: even though, yes, we do need them to be winning
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: at the end of the first five for this. But
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: that's what I'm going to do here. I would also
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: agree with the over in this game. The total is 7.5.
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: I know these teams did have a day off to travel,
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: which I say sometimes kind of affects the timing of
• 19:30
  Speaker 4: the hitting, I think, and will rest the bullpens, and
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: the bullpens are all right. But Gasser, he's just not
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: that good. And Snell... He's had his struggles enough so
• 19:40
  Speaker 4: that maybe this game does get over this total. It's
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: seven and a half, which is higher than most of
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: these playoff totals that we've seen so far. Although this
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: is going to be in LA where it's probably not
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: as cool as it is in some of these other
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: environments that we see in the postseason but yeah the
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: over is getting money here 52% of tickets on the
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: under 74% of the cash on the over I'd agree
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: with that. And you know, if you agree with the
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: over and the Dodgers, which I do, then another option
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: is to take the Dodgers over their team total. I
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: think you'd be taking them over four and a half though.
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: So you're going to need them to score five here.
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: They could definitely do it. I mean, they hit well
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: against gas or so there's definitely a possibility they could
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: do it. And if they do that, maybe Milwaukee has
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: to dip into their bullpen early, even though their bullpen
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: is good. So it is possible that the bullpen comes
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: out and kind of cools the fire here. Cause they
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: can use any of their bullpen arms. today so I
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: don't know I'd rather just take the Dodgers though in
• 20:34
  Speaker 4: the first five there to you know to keep themselves
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: alive in the series basically and take advantage of the
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: starting pitching mismatch that I think this is here all
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: right then we have college football I'm going to give
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: out a play here too in game one well the
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: first of the two games the games are overlapping though
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: the first game CBS Sports at 7 30 p.m. as
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: we get more Conference USA action isn't that fun It's
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: all Conference USA Tuesday and Wednesday right now. Kennesaw at
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: Missouri State is the first game here. I'm just going
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: to continue with the best bet segment here. We're going
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: to take the Missouri State plus three here. I think
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: everything kind of lines up for this. I mean, first
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: of all, we do have a home primetime game, and
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: I think the home teams usually get up a little
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: bit more for games like this when they host a
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: game on TV, and it's one of the only games
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: on TV. And Missouri State isn't that used to this
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: because they're new to the FBS, although Kennesaw is as well.
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: I think Missouri, both teams are only in their third
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: year or so in FBS, but whatever. I think the
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: home team gets a little bit of a boost. The
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: crowd gets a little bit excited for it as well.
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: It's a night game, so there's tailgating. The students get
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: more drunk, whatever. It's considered to be a bigger game
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: because you're hosting a game on primetime here. So I
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: like all that for Missouri State, but I like how
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: the spot sets up for them as well. Kennesaw, I mean,
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: they're not off to a good start. They're 1-4, although
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: one of their losses was to Tennessee. You know, one
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: of them was a close loss to an Arkansas State team.
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: It's not that bad. And they lost last week to
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: a pretty good Jacksonville State team. That's kind of why
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: I don't want them here, because that was a big
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: game against Jacksonville State. Jacksonville State had the revenge motive
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: in that game, though, because Kennesaw won the conference championship
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: game against Jacksonville last year. That was a back-and-forth crazy
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: game that was last Wednesday against Back and forth the
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: whole way, pretty much, and the Jacksonville State was able
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: to win it late on a field goal. I think
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: Kennesaw might come up flat after that, man. Having to
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: go back out on the road, and then look what
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: they play next. Oh yeah, next they have a home
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: game on a Thursday night primetime game against the conference leader, Liberty.
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: So they have this game against Missouri State who only
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: has one win, I think, although so does Kennesaw, I know,
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: but this game is sandwiched in between the two winless
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: teams in the conference, Jacksonville State and Liberty. I think
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: that qualifies as a sandwich spot, man. Basically, you're having
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: to play this game between a big game against one
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: of the top teams in the conference. You have the
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: top team in the conference on deck in Liberty. I
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: don't like how this sets up for Kennesaw, even though, yeah,
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: they're going to be looking for their first conference win, whatever,
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: but so is Missouri State. Missouri State They don't have
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: a conference win yet either. In fact, they don't have
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: an FBS win yet. But you look at their schedule,
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: they have had three road games so far out of
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: their four FBS games. They lost to Texas A &
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: M and SMU. I mean, what can you do? I mean,
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: those games are not easy for a team like Missouri State, obviously.
• 23:27
  Speaker 4: And they did hang to some extent with SMU, just
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: like they did last year, which was a win for
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: me on the show last year. I just think SMU
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: overlooks This team, man, it's just not a game that
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: SMU cares about. But I think Missouri State does get
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: up for a game like that against one of the
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: big boys. And I think that's why we saw a
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: bad performance from Missouri State last time out. They lost
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: at Western Kentucky last week. We saw them get absolutely annihilated.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: Although we did see that their quarterback, they had a
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: quarterback change in this game. Locklear was their quarterback. And
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: he either got hurt or they just pulled him. But
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: he's not even good, dude. So I just, I don't
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: think that matters for Missouri State here. Whether Locklear is
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: hurt or not, he was only 50% completions in this game.
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: He was averaging only 3.7 yards per pass completion. They
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: brought in Balin IV, or however you pronounce this guy's name. Balin,
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: I don't know. Balin, like a whale with no teeth?
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: He eats krill? No, I don't know. But he came
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: in and he actually did way better. He had 8.2
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: yards per catch, or per completion, I should say. And
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: at a much higher completion percentage. Although I know it
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: was probably a garbage time late in the game, whatever.
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: But either way, I don't care. Regardless of which quarterback
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: is going to be in here for Missouri State. I
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: think they're going to put in an effort because it
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: looks like there might be a quarterback battle now for
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: Missouri State. If Locklear is hurt, you know what I'm
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: going to say. It's an injured player theory spot. So
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: the team usually gets up a little bit extra for
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: the injured player theory. They know they have to play
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: with a little bit more motivation here. But if that's
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: not the case and he's going to continue playing, well,
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: they're still in a bounce-back spot coming off this blowout loss.
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: And this Missouri State team, they've played better at home
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: so far. I mean, we don't have much to go on.
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: They beat an FCS Lindenwood team, but they blew them out.
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: And then they played pretty close against Marshall. Marshall, I think,
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: has been all right over in the Sun Belt. So
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: that wasn't a bad result for Missouri State against an
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: okay Marshall team. Missouri State was a four-point underdog in
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: that game, and they hung around in that game. so
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: that's not a bad result either. Yeah, I say we
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: do it. We're going to take Missouri State here. It
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: looks like, to me, the market is agreeing with this.
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: Kennesaw's got 68% of tickets on them. I think maybe
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: the public is kind of reacting to what they saw last.
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: They want to get down on some football, you know,
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: and they only have a couple options tonight. I think
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: they're going to look at, oh, Kennesaw just won against,
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: or almost won against a good Jacksonville State team. Missouri
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: State got annihilated by a Western Kentucky team that only
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: had one win last So people are going to knock
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: Missouri State for that, but I told you I kind
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: of liked Western Kentucky in that game. Western Kentucky, they've
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: had a really difficult schedule, okay? So I'm going to
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: talk about them. Actually, I'll talk about them when I
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: get to them here. But that will kind of explain
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: why Missouri State lost that game. Well, Missouri State was also, again,
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: coming off that big performance against SMU. So I think
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: they were a little bit hungover and maybe kind of
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: overlooked a one-win Western Kentucky team. Well, I'll just say
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: it now. That Western Kentucky team, they played almost every
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: one of their games on the road to start the season.
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: And they had a couple of really... strong opponents that
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: they played that there was no way they were going
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: to beat them like I think they played Georgia and
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: some other like really big boys so like Western Kentucky
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: don't be thrown off by their schedule right like they
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: played some huge teams that they were never going to
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: win against but now that they're playing in Conference USA
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: Western Kentucky is going to be a much more competitive
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: team obviously which I will continue talking about when I
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: talk about their game and I actually don't like them
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: in their game even though it looks like the market
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: read is actually agreeing with Western Kentucky in that one.
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: But in this game, 68% of tickets, 58% of the
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: cash on Kennesaw. So it looks like they are somewhat
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: of a public side. It looks like we're getting money
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: on the under in this game as well, although the
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: total crossed through the key number of 51 and went
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: up to 52.5. So it's expected there's going to be
• 27:20
  Speaker 4: some scoring in this game. You know, I don't really
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: know about that, to be honest. Kennesaw's offense I don't
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: think is that good, so I don't know, man. It
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: hasn't really been over the last couple of years, so
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: I don't know. That remains to be seen, but I
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: like how the spot sets up for Missouri State. I
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: think we're looking at a sandwich spot for Kennesaw. These
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: sandwich spots are harder to identify in these smaller conference
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: games because you don't get, oh, you know, this game's
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: sandwiched in between two ranked teams or whatever, but you
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: can still tell This is between two top teams in
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: the conference, so that's what we're going to do here.
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: We'll take Missouri State. Also, I think Kennesaw's not really
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: that used to playing at Missouri State, because these teams
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: are new to the FBS, and I think they both
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: came from different conferences. This is not a familiar venue
• 28:05
  Speaker 4: for Kennesaw to have to go to. They're traveling from
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: Georgia to Missouri, by the way, for this, which is
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: not a typical travel spot for them. All right, and
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: then we have Western Kentucky having to go to texas
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: to play sam houston state um as i mentioned western
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: kentucky is definitely the better team here sam houston has
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: not been very good this year this game's on espn
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: by the way so this gets the espn billing so
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: that's one reason why i kind of lean sam houston
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: here is they're probably going to get up for this
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: like western kentucky is usually a team that is pretty
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: good and usually makes bowls and stuff like that sam
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: houston is Two years ago, I think in their first
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: FBS season, they actually had a shockingly good season and
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: made a bowl. But since then, I think they've been
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: pretty trash. But they might get up for this game,
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: you know, because it's something, oh, we get an ESPN
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: game against Western Kentucky. I think that's pretty big for
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: Sam Houston. And it's a weird travel spot for Western
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: Kentucky because Sam Houston, again, is pretty new to FBS.
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: So I think Western Kentucky doesn't usually have to go
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: to this particular venue or venues in this area anymore.
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: So that all makes this a little bit weird for
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: Western Kentucky. Again, I think the crowd will get up
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: for a big ESPN game. The team should get up
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: getting to host a big ESPN game like this for
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: Sam Houston. Even though generally I would say, yes, Western
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: Kentucky is the better team here. And the odds makers
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: are telling you that. Even though you'd look at the
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: records and, oh, Western Kentucky's 2-4, Sam Houston's 1-4. So
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: it looks like both teams are bad. But like I
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: told you, Western Kentucky, they faced a ridiculous schedule. Yeah,
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: they went on the road to face Georgia and Indiana.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: in two of their first three games And four of
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: their first five games were all on the road. So
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: it's like, what can you even do? This schedule was
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: not easy, was not kind to them at all. So
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: this Western Kentucky team, yeah, there's no doubt that they're
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: better than their record looks. But I think last week
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: they looked too good. We saw them bounce back and
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: crush Missouri State. Now they've got to go back out
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: on the road where, by the way, they're owned for.
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: on the road so far and it's not just Georgia
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: and Indiana they lost at Nevada and at New Mexico
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: State and they got annihilated in those games I mean
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: these games have not even been close they've been blown
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: out in every road game and I don't even think
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: Sam Houston is capable of really blowing them out but
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: still that's not a good sign and maybe you thought
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: Nevada wasn't because they're not a good team either but
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: they still did it they killed Western Kentucky so I
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: don't know man I don't like how this sets up
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: for Western Kentucky to be honest I don't know why
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: the money's coming in on them here Sam Houston is
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: coming off getting blown out by Liberty, so that's what
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: we saw last. Both teams played, I believe, like exactly
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: a week ago, I want to say. They both played
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: in the middle of the week last week. I think
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: they both played on Thursday, actually, which, by the way,
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: I do have to mention, Missouri State does have one
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: fewer day off than Kennesaw does, but I think it's
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: easier for them getting to play a home game here,
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: so I'm not too worried about that. The fact that
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: Kennesaw has one more day off than they do here.
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: They both played on different days in the middle of
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: the week last week. I don't think that matters. I
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: believe Western Kentucky and Sam Houston are on the same
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: rest here. But I think what really matters is that
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: we saw Sam Houston get blown out at Liberty last week.
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: But I told you Liberty's a legit team, man. I
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: said that in my, my season preview, I thought Liberty
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: was going to be the team to bounce back and
• 31:18
  Speaker 4: win this conference, uh, as they were supposed to do
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: last year. And the thing about Liberty is they run
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: the football. Well, Sam Houston is really bad at defending
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: the run. So when Liberty had the lead and they
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: were going to run the football more, that meant they
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: could continue to just gain yards and score more because
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: Sam Houston can't stop it. You know what I mean?
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: So that's what I was worried about last week as
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: far as Sam Houston trying to cover that spread. Um,
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: Now we do have to bring that up again here.
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: Usually you think of Western Kentucky as being a pass-heavy offense,
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: but this year they're kind of more balanced. So I
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: think Western Kentucky might actually be able to run the
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: football against Sam Houston. That's one thing that would worry
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: me here. Sam Houston cannot stop the run, although maybe
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: they'll be able to make Western Kentucky one-dimensional because they
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: can stop the pass pretty well. Western Kentucky, again, you
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: do think of them as more of a passing offense here. But, yeah,
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, this year it's been more balanced. Like I said,
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: they have a couple of good games on the ground
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: from their running back tandem here. They have a couple
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: of different running backs. They get into the mix. They've
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: had a couple of games where they threw a lot
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: of passes, though, as well. But we will see. Although, again,
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: it looks like they're using, like, a dual-threat quarterback in
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: some of these games here. I actually don't know what
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: Western Kentucky is doing. It looks like they've used multiple
• 32:32
  Speaker 4: different quarterbacks. So I don't know if they're going with, like,
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: a two-quarterback system here, which is usually not good, by
• 32:38
  Speaker 4: the way. Because, you know, the old saying, when you
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterback. Because the team
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: basically just doesn't have a leader and they don't know
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: who's who, really. But it looks like they have Tisdale
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: as their throwing quarterback and Glenn as the dual threat quarterbacks.
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: I don't really know what Western Kentucky is doing here,
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: to be honest. But I would lean Sam Houston in
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: this one. The money does not agree with me. Western
• 33:01
  Speaker 4: Kentucky does seem to be a public side, though. 60%
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: of the tickets, 87% of the cash on them. They're
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: up to one and a half, two here. I'd lean
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: towards taking the points with Sam Houston. Uh, the money
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: is also, well, it looks like it's just a public
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: over in this one. The total is around the same
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: as it is in the other one around 52 and
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: a half 53. I don't have a, I don't really
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: have a feel for the total in either of these games,
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: but I'm leaning towards both home underdogs here. Um, but
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: we do have a play on one of them on
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: Missouri state and that's it, man. No WNBA still until
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: the finals resume a week after the team's last played on, uh,
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: The finals will resume on Saturday, and there's some weird
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: shit going on in the WNBA, by the way, where Atlanta,
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: their home arena, there's a scheduling conflict where I guess
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: the operators of the arena assumed that Atlanta was not
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: going to make the final, and they scheduled concerts. on
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: days where Atlanta has to host some of the finals games,
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: so they're actually having to host the games at a
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: different venue, a smaller venue, I've never heard of anything
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: so ghetto, dude, because you can't move the concert at
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: this point, everybody's bought tickets or whatever, it's unbelievable, so
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's having to go from like a 10,000 seat venue
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: to like a 3,000 one, so I'm going to keep
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: in mind with these WNBA playoffs here, but the Opening
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: two games are going to be in Golden State, though,
• 34:26
  Speaker 4: so it doesn't affect those two games. But it's still
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: completely ridiculous. It's so stupid. I'm rooting for Golden State, obviously.
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: I'm not a fan of Angel Reese. I'm not a
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: fan of what Atlanta's doing. Not a fan of Atlanta,
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: the city. So, you know, whatever. All right, I got
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: two plays today. We're going to lay the half run
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: on the run line with the Dodgers in the first five.
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: Team in desperation mode, down 0-2 with the better start
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: or the more experienced starter on the mound. I say
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: we do it. Better matchup stats for it. And we're
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: going to go with one of these midweek college football games,
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: which I've stayed away from so far. I know I've
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: had some bigger conference plays in some of the Thursday
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: and Friday games, but let's take Missouri State plus the three.
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: Two plays today. That's going to do it. Learn to
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: Tone on Twitter. Learn to Tone on Instagram. Like, subscribe
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: to the channel here. You'll get notified when I go live.
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: Football coming up again, of course. I usually do most
• 35:22
  Speaker 4: of my football research on the Wednesday, although I do
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: a lot of the final handicapping right before I do
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: the show, though, where I really actually figure out what
• 35:31
  Speaker 4: my plays are going to be. So we'll see. I
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: will do an NBA preview at some point and probably
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: a college basketball preview. With all the changes with the
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: transfers and college basketball, I can't keep up with all
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: that shit. So it's just going to be me looking
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: at the odds and whatever and, you know, We'll see
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: when we get to it what I want to do
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: with that. NBA is a little bit easier to talk
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: about because we kind of know what the big moves
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: were because they were high profile. So we will see.
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: I'll see if Clint wants to come on for an
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: episode of Ball to talk about that, even though he's
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: a Laker fan. Anyway, I hate the Sixers more than
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: the Lakers at this point, man. Right now I do.
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: So the world can gang up on the 76ers. We
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: can all join in our hatred of the 76ers. the
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: new super team.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: Let's go.
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: I will not play their banger theme song anymore. I'm
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: not going to do it. Even though it's an awesome song, nope,
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: they don't deserve it anymore. Sorry. So sorry to everybody
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: about that. Haven't played it in a while. If you
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: don't know what I'm talking about, you can go find it, whatever.
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: I'm rambling. What else do I have to promote here?
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: We're on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Check that out. Let's
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: bump those numbers back up, man, or pump them back up, whatever. Yeah.
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: Covered in Uke is my ukulele cover channel on YouTube.
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: You can check that out with my bad ukulele covers. Patreon.com
• 36:53
  Speaker 4: slash LearnToTote. If you want to support me over there,
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: you get some bonus Uke stuff. I got to figure
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: out more bonus stuff to add, man. Honestly, I don't know.
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: I have some ideas, but maybe I should figure it out,
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: figure out what I'm doing. And we got Losercast. Every
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: Tuesday night, we did one last night. I thought it
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: was good.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: Leighton.
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: Good job running the show last night. We had a, yeah,
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: I thought it went smoothly. Um, yeah, I thought it
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: went well. It was, um, it was timed well. I
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: thought everything was, uh, was good on the show last night. So, um,
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: possibly because, uh, you know, I'm not saying that we
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: shouldn't have guests. I don't think that's true. I think
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: we should, but we had no guests on the show
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: last night. We did have Tyler make his return to
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: the show though. But when we have guests, um, you know,
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: because they, you just don't exactly know what the chemistry
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: is going to be like and whatever. And, It adds
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: more picks, and they have to figure out what's going on.
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: That kind of makes the show longer, let's say, which
• 37:51
  Speaker 4: sometimes if you're really, really vibing, that's fine, but a
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: lot of times I think it's not fine. Plus, I
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: do it on the East Coast where the show ends
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: after midnight a lot of times in my time, which
• 37:59
  Speaker 4: I don't like. I'm rambling. I don't want to do that.
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: Let's end the show here. Let's have a winning day today, man,
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: even though that would basically require us to go 2-0 here,
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: but that is what it is. Peace for now.
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 38:49
  Speaker 5: out That bad luck bites hard But it don't get.
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: The crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, you're still here now.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: Thank you.