Latest / Behavioral Economics with Fexingo: Decision Making, Bias, and How People Really Spend
Why You Think You Can Predict the Future
Episode 10 of Behavioral Economics with Fexingo dives into the hindsight bias, the mental trick that makes past events feel inevitable and your future predictions feel more accurate than they are. Lucas and Luna unpack the 1975 Baruch Fischhoff experiment where students retroactively raised their probability estimates after being told the outcome, and connect it to real-world investing, political punditry, and the 2020 pandemic response. They discuss how the bias distorts learning, fuels overconfidence, and why keeping a decision journal might be the best antidote. Plus, a brief reflection on…
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