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MUST-WIN? Can The Chargers Bounce Back? Raiders Preview · The Thunder Down Under Chargers Podcast

0:10
Yes, we are back for our second show this week,
0:14
Alistair. Uh, welcome, welcome. Welcome. This
0:17
is the first time that you are tuning in. We
0:19
are the Thunder Down Under Charges podcast. This
0:22
is our second show of the week, which we are
0:24
doing new for 2026, the season of 2026, where
0:28
we sort of take a quick look at our upcoming
0:31
opponents. Now after the absolute travesty that
0:35
was week one, we now turn our eyes to week two
0:38
versus the Raiders. FTR baby. FTR. who had a
0:45
27 to 13 opening win to sort of Chris and Clint
0:50
Kubiak's first time coaching them there. So what
0:57
kind of happened and some of the week one numbers
1:00
that mattered is that Las Vegas had 290 total
1:05
yards, 4 .3. Miami actually had 259. It was a
1:08
relatively even day. Cousins looked okay, but
1:12
kind of let Miami back in, throwing two pretty
1:15
bad picks. Brock Bowers wasn't playing. We don't
1:18
know of his injury status, which is going to
1:20
be an important part of our conversations, Alistair,
1:22
whether he's going to be back playing for the
1:24
Chargers. But Maya, you know, coming back had
1:26
six catches for 32. Jeanty, six for 45. Jeanty
1:30
also ran really well. 23 carries for 102. Definitely
1:34
felt like it was the Jeanty Ran offense. The
1:39
defense looked okay with five sacks and a couple
1:41
of takeaways. But Alistair, it is Miami. You
1:45
know, it is the worst team in the NFL to say
1:49
down in Miami. They're the Dolphins. How much
1:53
was this Raiders improvement? And Kubiak being
1:57
like, I'm the guy, I'm the guy. We've got Mendulza
1:59
on the bench. He's, he's, he's calling him plays.
2:02
You know, he's, he's sitting there. He's engaged.
2:04
Um, was this a Raiders improvement or was this
2:06
just Miami dysfunction? What's AU? The answer
2:10
is we'll find out this weekend. But, but, but
2:16
that doesn't make for very good podcasting, but
2:19
I thought, look, I was suitably impressed. it
2:24
looked like there were grownups in the chair
2:26
at Las Vegas, you see immediately the central
2:29
tenants of a Kubiak offense, which are quite
2:32
similar to a Mike McDaniel Shanahanian offense,
2:35
right? You've got a lot of heavier personnel,
2:37
a lot of motions, a lot of bootlegs, and just
2:41
a variety of ways to attack a defense. So I thought
2:45
there was real genuine improvement from the Raiders
2:48
schematically. I think they're masking a pretty
2:52
subpar receiving group. I mean, there are a lot
2:56
of guys who you'd be comfortable having as your
2:57
wide receiver three there, Jalen Naylor, Tucker,
3:01
these kind of guys, Benson, but they're not all
3:04
household names. But even without Brock Bowers,
3:08
Jack, they looked like they could move the ball
3:09
steadily up and down the field. It was a very
3:12
young Miami team who had all sorts of rookies
3:15
on the field and a first time head coach themselves.
3:18
So it is possible that they won't look quite
3:21
as good. But Jack, Our defense didn't look too
3:24
much chop against the car, against the Cardinals,
3:27
as we're saying during the week. So I find cold
3:30
comfort myself in just assuming that this was
3:33
a dolphins driven outcome. Yeah. And you know,
3:38
to touch on Kubiak's identity, uh, it really
3:42
felt like They've kind of handed the keys over
3:45
to, to Jeante as well. It didn't feel like a
3:47
cousins led, um, offense. And again, he kind
3:51
of let Miami, um, back into the game a little
3:53
bit, but you know, they played with a full back
3:56
for, I think it was around 50 % of their snaps
3:59
with three tight ends on 91 offensive snaps.
4:03
Um, it sort of feels like the structure felt
4:07
good offensively, I think granted it was against
4:09
a really poor defense, but you know, I can't
4:14
remember last year, I didn't watch the Raiders
4:15
too much, but seeing Genety as this both receiver
4:18
and runner, that looks really dangerous and that's
4:21
going to test us early. I thought Crosby, Quidipay
4:26
and Coontz looked really good. Quidipay especially
4:29
coming in, looked really, really dangerous. But
4:32
you're right. I think some of their weaknesses
4:34
at a very high level was that the receivers don't
4:36
look great as a group. You just sort of can't
4:40
trust cousins 100 % to in big pressure situations.
4:45
And you know, I think that this the past defense,
4:50
the secondary of the Raiders defense is also
4:53
being hidden a little bit because I think they
4:55
Miami hit a completion of a 30 yards, then 30
4:58
yards, then 25 yards as well. So there's, there's
5:02
going to be some weaknesses there. Um, I guess
5:08
the, the, the, we talked, I've talked about gente
5:11
a bit, but can the charges take away gente without,
5:16
you know, I was very big on the center must hold
5:20
at my teachable moment this week. Can we take
5:23
gente away without reopening the middle? um like
5:27
how do we shore up sort of the middle of this
5:30
defense of our defense Well, thankfully the middle
5:34
is what actually looked okay from a charges defensive
5:37
perspective I thought against the Cardinals,
5:39
but man, I'm scared. I'm scared about this one
5:42
to punch Ashton Gentie looked like Boise State
5:45
Ashton Gentie to me He actually looked like you
5:48
know The one who was promised rather than the
5:51
poor guy flopping about behind a 32nd ranked
5:54
defensive line last year They've got Colton Miller
5:56
back. They've got JPJ healthy. They've gotten
5:58
Tyler Lindaborm in and and it just jumped off
6:02
the field when I was watching their game against
6:04
the Dolphins. These guys are tough. These guys
6:06
are mean. They're not allowing much pressure
6:09
at all on Kirk Cousins. He was barely pressured.
6:12
22 .6 % of his drop backs he was pressured. So
6:15
I worry a bit. Gent is your bowling ball. Mike
6:18
Washington is like a six foot, 220 pound guy
6:22
who can run 4 .28 or whatever it is, 4 .3 in
6:27
a straight line. And he had seven carries for
6:29
41 yards. this game starts and stops for me in
6:33
in just making sure they don't dominate the game
6:35
on the ground that that's it and and i'm happy
6:38
to this is the game where i'm happy to be a bit
6:40
more um trusting of the corners because i don't
6:43
know if those outside guys threaten too much
6:47
Trey Tucker will threaten you deep occasionally
6:49
like Ham Hart might need to worry doesn't get
6:52
beaten for a 45 yard score but generally speaking
6:55
i think we need numbers in the box this week
6:57
I just also worry that with the rate is being
7:01
so run dominant with gente is that I do wonder
7:05
about Mike McDaniel's ability to sort of, uh,
7:09
perhaps stay a little bit calm. When you look
7:11
at what happened against the Cardinals, we had
7:14
a negative 21 play deficit. We were negative
7:16
125 yards. Our time of possession, you know,
7:20
we, they had over 15 minutes more of the ball
7:23
and our EPA per play was, was negative 0 .3,
7:26
which is, which is, which is bad. So they have
7:30
this ability to matriculate and Jeanty looks
7:33
really good. I think If Bowers plays with we've
7:38
got a bit of an issue, even if it's a 50 % Brock
7:40
Bowers, because I think, you know, how do you
7:43
put pressure on cousins, right? You know, do
7:46
you force him outside? And do you force him deep
7:49
because he's an older quarterback? You know,
7:51
does he have the zip on the ball that he did,
7:53
you know, five or six years ago? Possibly not.
7:56
Um, but I think We've got to get more pressure
7:59
on him, like Tully and Mack and Mesadol. We've
8:01
got to get a pass rush without blitzing. I think
8:04
that's going to be super important. And if Bowers
8:07
does play, I think we've got to do more and help
8:10
Derwin James out bracket and a little bit of
8:13
leverage plans to sort of just help our linebackers
8:18
and Derwin more. I think offensively, what the
8:22
Raiders are going to try and do is they want
8:25
easy conflict. You know, who's going to take
8:27
Genity of his receiver, you know, push our middle
8:30
of the, who's going to, you know, um, stop him
8:32
in the run game, uh, run fit versus Genity. Um,
8:38
the, the charges should try and put the pressure
8:40
on cousins. I still don't know if our defense
8:44
is good enough to do that. Alistair. I don't
8:46
know. It might not matter though, because Kirk
8:48
Cousins threw two of the worst, most incredibly
8:50
stupid interceptions I've ever seen against Miami.
8:54
One he just completely sailed to the safety.
8:56
The other one he's thrown to a lineback. And
8:59
you could tell the players, well, huh, Kirk,
9:01
what are you doing, dude? He, he, he had a PFF
9:04
grade of 46 .3. and he was pressured on 22 .6
9:09
% of downs. Unheard of. So the guy operated in
9:13
the best cleanest pocket ever and still gave
9:15
the game away. So I'm quietly very happy that
9:18
they're going with the slowly but surely, you
9:20
know, grooming up Fernando Mendoza slowly. approach.
9:25
I think cousins is actually going to give us
9:27
a chance to bounce back here. But like you say,
9:29
I wouldn't do too much with the blitzing or too
9:32
much disguise. I would start the game, just dumbing
9:35
it down, simplifying a little bit and letting
9:37
these guys play a bit quicker to get their confidence
9:39
up. All right. Let me put you back on the hot
9:41
seat. We've talked about the limitations of cousins
9:43
and what we could do. What does Justin Herbert
9:45
need to do? And what should Mike McDaniel be
9:47
doing to get Justin Herbert back to 350 yards,
9:50
five touchdowns against the Raiders? Well, Firstly,
9:54
as you said, you've got to stop those, you know,
9:56
the trio of pass rushes, but I think his scheme
9:59
can. First of all, we didn't mention this on
10:02
the show earlier in the week, but there were
10:04
only two screen passes against the Cardinals.
10:08
And I did mention that there were a couple of
10:10
missed opportunities to get outlets out to Hampton,
10:12
but let's involve Amarin Hampton in the passing
10:15
game a little bit, seeing he's such a house.
10:18
to bring down if he's out in space. He's very,
10:20
very hard. He's very powerful. Very, very powerful.
10:24
Yeah. And the play action game was mostly excellent
10:27
against the card. So I want to see a bit more
10:28
of that, you know, tight end releases, throwing
10:30
screens, all the things you can do to slow down
10:34
a pass rush and just make them hesitate before
10:36
they race up field. Cause they know if they race
10:38
up field, suddenly screens been thrown behind
10:41
their head, make them play react attack football.
10:44
And if you are going to attack. I reckon that
10:48
they've got a couple of guys who are still young
10:50
in their secondary, who you can pick on. Eric
10:52
Stokes is the guy that I would be going after.
10:55
He's now been there a couple of years, but former
10:57
Green Bay Packer, he allowed 58 yards on four
11:00
catches last week. And dude, these names at the
11:04
second level for the Raiders, Nakobe Dean, Quay
11:08
Walker, Jeremy Chin. These are some of the more
11:12
aggressive downhill flying around linebackers
11:16
and you can exploit that aggressiveness off play
11:19
action and that's what Shanahan coordinators
11:22
do really well. So I'd like to see a bit of that
11:24
in answer to your question, mate. Am I off the
11:26
hot seat yet? Teach. I think the bottom line
11:30
is what I've got is, as you said, that Las Vegas
11:33
can create pressure without sacrificing its coverage
11:36
shell, which is, which allows them to sort of
11:40
perhaps be a little bit more aggressive in coverage,
11:42
especially when you think about those linebackers
11:44
in the middle of the field. So what we're going
11:46
to need is we're going to need that early down
11:48
efficiency, get Hampton, get those chains moving
11:51
short passes as well. Don't try and just sit
11:54
there and invite these hyper aggressive guys
11:57
to get because you know the Raiders are like
11:59
a red rag to a bull once Crosby gets going he
12:02
goes and that whole Raiders defense starts to
12:05
come come along with him so If, if you need to
12:10
neutralize that and that's gotta be those screen
12:12
passes, quick dump offs, they throw everything
12:14
at you. See you later. Boom. Hey, we might only
12:16
get four or five yards from it, but eventually
12:19
you keep doing that and nullifying and these
12:21
guys don't get home. They don't get to hit Justin.
12:23
That's when they get really, really, really frustrated.
12:27
We can't have Justin Herbert just sitting there.
12:30
Waiting on second and 10 or second and 15 because
12:35
of a penalty around these long developing routes.
12:38
He's sitting, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting,
12:40
and my leg snapped. Uh, so please not please
12:46
God, uh, defensive matchups, matchups. Alistair,
12:49
do you think that will decide this game against
12:52
the Raiders? Any on your Raider? Chargers defense.
12:57
Yep. It depends on if Brock Bowers plays. If
13:02
Bowers plays and at the time of recording his
13:05
availability is up in the air and so is Lad McConkie's
13:08
listeners. So we're going to assume, let's assume
13:10
both don't play because I think it's probably
13:14
leaning more likely in that direction for both
13:16
of them. I think it's a team effort, Jack. It's
13:20
about stopping the run so we don't have a repeat
13:22
of the time of position dominance from week one.
13:24
I mean, the cards had the ball for 37 minutes
13:27
against us and The Raiders had the ball for 34
13:30
minutes against Miami. So my matchup taking a
13:34
teach Ian approach to my response. It's not about
13:37
the individual. It's about the conglomerated
13:39
hole Jack. And it's that front seven putting
13:42
a beat down on the charges offense, the Raiders
13:46
offensive line, Gentie and Washington. Yep. For
13:50
me, I'm going to go, this is not the Justin Herbert
13:52
game. This is not the lad McConkey game. This
13:55
is not the Quentin Johnson game. This is the
14:00
a Marion Hampton game. And I think this is the,
14:04
the run game. The matchup is the run game versus
14:06
the Raiders nickel box. It looks like Taryn Johnson
14:10
played 86 % of the snaps and two linebackers
14:13
on every play. Las Vegas played them. So I think
14:16
what we need is we need efficient runs that kind
14:19
of start to bring those safeties down a little
14:21
bit and go here we need to support the run game
14:24
here we need to support the run game and reduce
14:26
a bit of that simulated pressure then what we
14:29
do is we open up some of those bigger passes
14:31
but I think this that Omarion Hampton Keaton
14:33
Mitchell and Vidal if he's active I'm sure he
14:36
will be it's going to be a Mike McDaniel needs
14:39
to get these guys going. One thing Alistair on
14:42
top of that do you think that matters most for
14:45
the charges that we haven't covered so far? I'm
14:48
gonna say for just the confidence of the fan
14:51
base Quentin Johnston Trey Harris, you're coming
14:55
up against a couple of corners in Darien Porter,
14:58
a guy Ryan and I both quite liked a couple of
15:01
years ago, but he hasn't started his career that
15:03
well, nor has Eric Stokes at all. So, so we need
15:06
to see that you guys can win on the outside,
15:08
because I still think this Raiden's secondary,
15:11
it's young, it's probably bottom 12 kind of a
15:15
unit. So this is their chance. I'll be really
15:17
concerned if we're talking about this next week,
15:21
still saying, oh, Quentin, John, Johnston, he
15:23
looked rusty and Trey Harris didn't do too much.
15:25
Then I'm leaning with you from earlier in the
15:28
week saying this is Lad McConkey or nothing at
15:31
all, which is can't be where we are in year three
15:34
of this, of this organisational build. Yeah.
15:37
Quinton Johnston last week, 17 yards on 27 routes.
15:43
That Alistair equates to 0 .63 yards per route.
15:48
Correct. Uh, whereas on the other hand, lad,
15:52
McConkey had 82 on 18 routes, which is 4 .56.
15:56
So we need a little bit of evenness there. Uh,
15:59
the thing for me, I've got two is that Jeannie
16:02
is known as a tackle breaker as his, uh, opposite
16:05
in a Marion Hampton is, but this is where charges
16:08
you show a bit of grit. And you say, if, if gente
16:11
catches the ball out of the backfield, you hold
16:13
onto that first tackle. You don't let him break
16:15
it. And you don't let him go for another four
16:17
or five yards. Show some discipline, show some
16:19
fight. Let's show some, some, some grit here
16:22
and, and, um, and really make sure that we make
16:25
every gente touch. Cause I think there's going
16:27
to be a few of them. He earns them. The other
16:30
thing is this Ryan Fiken, you need to ensure
16:34
that we have no block punts. Every single punt
16:37
that we have. is perfect. We have no, uh, uh,
16:42
coverage busts in our, in our, in our kicking
16:43
game and our return game and our special teams
16:46
needs to be perfect. That's what I'd be putting
16:47
if I was Jim Harbour now. I'll start watching
16:52
that. Uh, watching the tape from last week, Dylan
16:55
Lowby, their kickoff returner had two 50 yard
16:59
returns made me a bit worried and their punter
17:01
AJ Cole had an 80 yard punt. He's got the biggest
17:05
booming leg in the entire NFL. So I think this
17:09
is a bit of a topsy turvy affair on special teams
17:11
that Vickan needs to bounce back. Vickan, Fook
17:13
and Fiken, his seat's getting hot. It is, uh,
17:18
anything else, Alistair, or do we just want to
17:20
go straight into predictions and see what? We
17:23
think I had a left field. I, uh, I just wanted
17:29
to say thank you for the time we had down in
17:33
Melbourne. We haven't spoken on the podcast about
17:36
going to the game on Friday, Rams versus 49ers.
17:39
And we should shout out Seamus, of course. Shout
17:43
out Seamus. Friend of the show. Excellent. Excellent
17:46
man. Uh, we had a good chat and he very graciously
17:49
bought us a couple of pints. I don't think we
17:51
needed it at the time, but still we had a good,
17:53
good chin wag about the team. And we have what,
17:57
you know, before we go score prediction, maybe
17:59
a minute on your experiences. Awesome. Watching
18:01
the game with your brother. Oh, it was amazing
18:03
to for that to be my very first NFL game. I think
18:07
first game for Andy as well. You've obviously
18:08
seen the charges over in LA, uh, you know, as
18:12
an Australian, There is nothing like the full
18:15
MCG when we go and watch our native sport, which
18:18
is, you know, Aussie rules footy. But I tell
18:20
you what, I think that's probably up there with
18:22
the best sporting event that I've ever been a
18:24
part of. The fanfare, the ease of getting in
18:28
and out of the stadium, the vibe around the stadium,
18:31
the noise, the cheering. Yes, was it not the
18:35
greatest kind of perspective with the field being
18:38
30 meters kind of in? I just have so much more
18:41
of an appreciation of the game and, and sort
18:44
of how quickly quarterbacks have to make a decision
18:47
and how quickly it all happens. Uh, I can't wait
18:50
to go and see some stuff in the States and see
18:52
it live and sort of be a little bit, a little
18:54
bit closer, but man, Melbourne really turned
18:56
out and Aussie fans. And if you're an American
19:01
listening to this, we appreciate it so much that
19:03
you guys came down and shared. a large party
19:05
of culture with us. It was just, it was so, so
19:08
cool. Um, and to say, you know, that we were
19:11
the first to see an NFL game in Australia, I'll
19:14
have that for the rest of my life, which is very
19:16
cool. You could not have said that any better,
19:18
mate. So let's go straight into our score predictions.
19:22
I'll start us off. I'm going with my heart here
19:25
because my head's actually very worried now that
19:27
I've watched the Raiders offense. I'm, I'm going
19:29
to say we bounce back. We don't go 0 -2 and we
19:33
win at home 27 -24. I think we're going to have
19:36
to earn it. I think McDaniel is going to do his
19:38
job, but I think we're going to see some more
19:40
issues on defence and it's going to come down
19:42
to a Cameron Dicker field goal to win the game
19:45
late in it. I don't know if my heart's, if my
19:49
heart's going to take that. This is such a big
19:51
game. This is such a big game. The Raiders are
19:55
out to take our hearts as well. They want to
19:57
suck our hearts out of our chest. If you start
20:00
O and two, I think your chances of making the
20:02
playoff generally are around 20%, something like
20:05
that. And then, and then we go on the hardest
20:07
run. in the NFL over the next seven weeks. So
20:11
yeah, you go home and two and things out looking
20:14
great. I'm going to say we bounce back. We go
20:17
one and one. I think it's going to be 27, 24
20:20
with a very close field goal to win it. That's
20:24
it, Alistair. This is our new kind of format.
20:27
We hope you enjoy it. Please leave a comment
20:29
and subscribe if you really like this and you
20:32
wanted to hear more, let us know. This is the
20:35
kind of way we're going to be doing it over the
20:38
course of 2026. Bit more content for you guys.
20:42
And other than that, bolt up FTR and let's get
20:47
this dub because we can't go over to... FTR,
20:49
baby. Please, baby. Please, please win. See you
20:52
later, guys. Looking, firing, he's got Floyd
21:17
turning, got it!