Latest / USA House Partners Podcast / Market Update: More Homes, Higher Rates — What It Means for Bowling Green & South Central Kentucky
Transcript
- Broker Greg: Here's something that's surprised a lot of people this fall. There are more homes for sale in America right now than at any point since before the pandemic. And yet, home prices just hit a record high for the month of September. More homes, higher prices, and mortgage rates sitting north to seven percent. So what in the world's going on? And what does it mean for you right here in South Central Kentucky? Welcome to the USA House Partners Podcast. I'm broker Greg, and this is our market update episode for the month, where we cut through the national headlines and get down to actually what's happening on our streets in Bowling Green, Warren County, and the surrounding area. Whether you're one of our smart sellers thinking about your next move or part of USA homebuyer nation working hard toward the keys of your own home, stick with me. In about 10 minutes, we'll know exactly where this market stands and how to use it to your advantage. Let's start with a big picture. The National Association of Realtors released its September numbers in mid-October. Existing home sales came in at an annual pace of just under $4 million. 3.99 million to be exact. That's up 1.5% from August, but down 2% from about a year ago. So sales are basically treading water. Prices though, still climbing. Slowly. The national median sale price was $417,500. That's up three percent from last year, and it marks 39 straight months of year-over-year gains. But notice that number, 1.3%. A few years ago, we were seeing double-digit jumps. Price growth has cooled down to a walk. Now here's the part I really want you to hear. Inventory nationally reached 1.6 million homes, up almost 5% from last year, and the most we've seen since late 2019. That works out to about a 4.8 month supply. For a long stretch, we were stuck well under that. We're moving toward what economists call a balanced market. And then there's the elephant in the room, the mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's weekly survey had the 30-year fixed at 7.32% as of October 22nd, and that's down a hair from 7.4, the high for 2026. But back in February, rates were around 6%. And a year ago at this time, they were about 6.2%. Let me put that in real dollars. Let's just say you're buying a $300,000 home with 5% down. last year's rate, your principal and interest payment would be about $1,744 a month. At today's rate, it's about $1,958. That's roughly $214 more every single month for the exact same home. Federal Reserve held rates steady at its meetings last week, so don't expect any overnight relief. Bottom line nationally, more choices for buyers, slower price growth, and financing that costs more than it did a year ago. Now let's come home to South Central Kentucky because as I always say, real estate's local and our numbers. Here tell a different story. Statewide, Kentucky's median sale price in September was about two hundred and eighty-four thousand dollars, up five point three percent from a year ago, according to RedFim. That's about four times the national rate of price growth. At the same time, the number of homes for sale across the state's up nearly ten percent, and homes are taking about fifty days to sell, four days longer than last year. Here in Warren County, the median sale price in the latest month of data. Was three hundred and thirteen thousand seven hundred dollars, up almost sixteen percent year over year. So our home values are still climbing faster than the nation's average. But, and this is important, look at what sellers are asking. The median listing price in Warren County was right around $340,000 in September. Back in June, it was nearly $353,000. That's about a $13,000 drop in asking prices over the summer. And the typical listings spent about $57 days on the market in August. So what does that all tell me after 23 years of watching this market? Values here are holding up well, but homes priced at last spring's expectations are setting and sellers are adjusting. One more thing, affordability. Our median price here runs about twenty five percent below the national median. Bowling Green still offers real value, and that's one reason people keep moving here for the jobs, for Western Kentucky University, for the quality of life. And on the rental side, average rent in Bowling Green is running about $1,250 a month, up around 2% from last year. Hang on to that number because it matters for our buyers. So, what does all this mean for you? Let's start with our smart sellers. First, you still have equity working for you. Local values are up and if you've owned your home more than a few years, you've likely built a meaningful cushion. Second, pricing is everything right now. The chief economists at the National Association of Realtors put it plainly. More inventory and longer days on market are giving buyers more negotiating power, and sellers need to be realistic about local conditions. In this market, an overpriced home doesn't just sit, it gets stale, and stale listings invite low offers. Third, if you need certainty, maybe you're relocating, settling in a state, facing a deadline, or you simply don't want months of showings while you're Mortgage payment keeps coming due. You have the option beyond the traditional listings. through our network of investors, we can put several cash offers in front of you side by side so you can compare price, timing, and terms. And choose what fits your life. No pressure. And sometimes the traditional listing is the better move. When it is, I'll tell you that too. Now, for you buyers out there from my USA Home Buyer Nation, this part's for you. Here's the silver lining in a 7% world. You have more homes to choose from and more room to negotiate than you've had in years. Sellers are trimming prices and homes are sitting longer, and that gives you leverage. The challenge, of course, is qualifying. Higher rates make the bank's box even tighter, especially if you're Self-employed, or you've had a bump in the road with your credit, or your income just doesn't fit neatly on a W-2. That's where our private investor network comes in. They offer rent-to-own and other flexible paths that let you move into a home now while you build toward a traditional mortgage on your own timeline, maybe when rates come down or once your credit's where you want it. And remember that rent number, about twelve hundred fifty dollars a month here in Bowling Green. Every month you rent, you're helping build someone else's equity. The question worth asking is whether there's a path for that money to start building yours. So here's my take on this market in one sentence. Nationally, it's slowing, it's slowly shifting toward buyers. And locally, values are holding strong, but pricing and strategy matter more than they have in years. If you'd like to know what this means for your situation, Whether that's what your home would be bring today or what it would take to get you into one, just reach out. It's a conversation, not a commitment. Call or text me at 270 784 Sold or just email me at Greg at USA Housepartners dot com. Next week, we're back on the seller track. How to price your home when buyers have the upper hand and how to tell when a cash offer actually puts more in your pocket than a listing. Make sure you subscribe so you don't miss it. I'm broker Greg with USA House Partners, and we go into the week. I'd like you to remember the words of Proverbs chapter 3, verses 33 and 34. The Lord blesses the home of the righteous with the wise inheriting honor and the humble receiving favor. Thank you for spending a few minutes with me, and we'll see you next week.