Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Betting KBO & UFC 249 w/guest Sean Zerillo

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Betting KBO & UFC 249 w/guest Sean Zerillo · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:10
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. Today, real betting action
0:17
Speaker 1: is taking place around the world and in the United States.
0:21
Speaker 1: We're going to get to all of that for the weekend.
0:24
Speaker 1: Later on in the show, Dann Revelle is going to
0:26
Speaker 1: come on. He's going to talk about two minutes in
0:28
Speaker 1: sports history that turned into seventy two million dollars for
0:33
Speaker 1: one man. If that's not a tease to make you
0:36
Speaker 1: stick around, I don't know what else would other than
0:40
Speaker 1: just the fact you get to listen to Danni Revelle.
0:42
Speaker 1: But before we do all that, let's get to Mr
0:46
Speaker 1: Shawn Zarrillo, who does just about everything for US at
0:49
Speaker 1: Action Network, whether it's tennis, horse racing, or in particular
0:55
Speaker 1: what's most important for today and this weekend UFC and baseball? Seanzariello,
1:04
Speaker 1: how are you doing with KBO. Let's talk about Korea
1:07
Speaker 1: Baseball Organization? The games are God knows when all I
1:11
Speaker 1: know is I see you filing like in the middle
1:14
Speaker 1: of the day four stories that are relevant overnight and
1:18
Speaker 1: early the next morning. What is happening with his Korean
1:21
Speaker 1: Baseball organization? Explain it to me. Yeah, it's madness, especially
1:25
Speaker 1: from a betting perspective. You know, I'm trying to give
1:27
Speaker 1: people the best information and lines of possible. And normally
1:29
Speaker 1: we'd have some MLB games coming up at one pm
1:32
Speaker 1: or seven pm local time for us, and these games
1:35
Speaker 1: are going off at five thirty a m. Easter time,
1:38
Speaker 1: so really getting line development later in the evening. I'm
1:41
Speaker 1: I'm finalizing plays around eleven pm twelve a m. At night,
1:45
Speaker 1: putting them out on Twitter. The last things I'm playing
1:48
Speaker 1: is as lines end up ticking up and going to bed,
1:51
Speaker 1: seeing some some numbers even moving up further that I
1:54
Speaker 1: wish I had waited on and had time to play,
1:56
Speaker 1: but I gotta slip at some point. So the kbo
1:59
Speaker 1: S teems to be taking kind of action. These lines
2:01
Speaker 1: that are absolutely flying when they open. UH markets are
2:05
Speaker 1: opening for them. The five thirty am games are opening
2:07
Speaker 1: around three pm the day before, so it's tons of
2:11
Speaker 1: action coming in. The totals are skyrocketing when people want
2:15
Speaker 1: to hit them. The money lines and the underdogs are
2:17
Speaker 1: absolutely flying up later in the day, so lots of
2:20
Speaker 1: value to be had, especially for underdog betters and UH.
2:23
Speaker 1: I think people are really taking to this league, which
2:25
Speaker 1: kind of has a a old school field to it.
2:28
Speaker 1: It's it's almost like watching MLB baseball, all right, So
2:32
Speaker 1: let me unpack this for a second. Number One, are
2:35
Speaker 1: you getting up to watch the games? Yes, I kind
2:37
Speaker 1: of become a routine with CPBL that we've had going
2:40
Speaker 1: since April eleventh, kind of used to those games going
2:42
Speaker 1: off five thirty in the morning. So more than happy
2:44
Speaker 1: to get it for the games. Unfortunately, now that ESPN
2:46
Speaker 1: is the broadcast rights, it looks like the games that
2:49
Speaker 1: we're all on Twitch have been pulled down, So it's
2:51
Speaker 1: it's limiting viewing options for people who want to take
2:54
Speaker 1: in all the games at once. Al Right, So you're
2:56
Speaker 1: only getting to watch like a game or two when
2:59
Speaker 1: ESPN brought cast them at like five thirty in the morning,
3:02
Speaker 1: which to me is just fascinating that ESPN went out
3:05
Speaker 1: of its way to do this. But I think it
3:07
Speaker 1: speaks to obviously, it speaks to the need for sports.
3:10
Speaker 1: It speaks to the need for ESPN to get live
3:13
Speaker 1: event programming on the air. You mentioned sort of the
3:16
Speaker 1: lines are flying. We we need to go even a
3:19
Speaker 1: step further back, which is did you ever bet on
3:23
Speaker 1: the KBO before? And how do you research betting on
3:29
Speaker 1: the KBO? Yes? So I've never bet on the KBO before.
3:32
Speaker 1: I'd never bet on you know, ty Why's professional baseball
3:35
Speaker 1: before early April. But I think, like anything else, you've
3:38
Speaker 1: got to find the data points that you think are relevant,
3:41
Speaker 1: eliminate the noise that you think isn't and then I mean,
3:44
Speaker 1: I can basically take the data that's out there, thankfully,
3:48
Speaker 1: CPBL stats dot Com. Websites like my KBO stats or
3:52
Speaker 1: my KBO dot com, uh KBO fancy Stats, all these
3:55
Speaker 1: websites really just do a great job of putting information
3:58
Speaker 1: out there and translating thankfully in the English, that people
4:01
Speaker 1: can consume and manipulate for their purposes. So really it's
4:05
Speaker 1: it's not much different data than I would use to
4:07
Speaker 1: build out an MLB model. I did have to kind
4:10
Speaker 1: of manually figure out park factors and scoring environments at
4:13
Speaker 1: the relevant parks relative to one another, you know, over
4:16
Speaker 1: the past two years, and kind of adjust because the
4:18
Speaker 1: the league has dropped off so dramatically in terms of
4:21
Speaker 1: run production, so I had to adjust for the league
4:23
Speaker 1: averages in those years. So that was a little bit
4:25
Speaker 1: of manual work. But other than that, you know, a
4:27
Speaker 1: lot of the player data is already there, a lot
4:29
Speaker 1: of the team data is already there, so I can
4:31
Speaker 1: just kind of take that data and plug it into
4:32
Speaker 1: a model adjusted for the league average run environment and
4:36
Speaker 1: get essentially what should be what I think are fairer
4:39
Speaker 1: offs each day. Uh, continuing to tweak that process as
4:42
Speaker 1: I go, sort of widen the margin for the wind
4:46
Speaker 1: probability model after a day or two, just to bring
4:49
Speaker 1: it more on line CPBL model, which I felt is
4:52
Speaker 1: a little bit more accurate, So sort of tweaking it
4:54
Speaker 1: as I go, But by and large, it's it's not
4:56
Speaker 1: so dissimilar from how you would go about handicapping MLB games.
5:00
Speaker 1: You just need to find the right data. Some of
5:02
Speaker 1: the stuff that you mentioned was manual. How are you
5:05
Speaker 1: even deciding what is the signal and what is the
5:07
Speaker 1: noise here? Because you mentioned you have to separate and
5:09
Speaker 1: then you need to dig in a little bit to
5:10
Speaker 1: translate it yourself. I don't mean Korean to English. I
5:14
Speaker 1: mean understanding how the data can be translated into something
5:18
Speaker 1: that's relevant. That's not easy. And you mentioned like this
5:22
Speaker 1: is a little bit like nineties baseball. How do you
5:24
Speaker 1: even know that you haven't watched the KBO Like you're
5:28
Speaker 1: putting money on these things. You're doing it based on
5:32
Speaker 1: data that you're finding on the internet, having never seen it,
5:36
Speaker 1: and yet you're acting with confidence about what your decision
5:40
Speaker 1: making is. Yeah, at the end of the day, it's
5:42
Speaker 1: still baseball. And these CPBL games, you know, they're they're
5:45
Speaker 1: absolutely archaic. Sometimes. The one this morning between the Monkeys
5:48
Speaker 1: and the Guardians started out six nothing Monkeys. It was
5:51
Speaker 1: immediately tied six six a few innings later. So those
5:54
Speaker 1: games are are pretty ridiculous in terms of the way
5:57
Speaker 1: that leads go back and forth. But these KBO games,
6:00
Speaker 1: I mean, just looking at the box score, seeing how
6:01
Speaker 1: they play out, they tend to be much tighter, much
6:04
Speaker 1: more like MLB games, just because the run environment is
6:07
Speaker 1: lower than MLB games are, and when you compare, and
6:11
Speaker 1: that's that was really the biggest difficulty with kind of
6:14
Speaker 1: eliminating the signal from the noise, looking at how dramatically
6:18
Speaker 1: the run environment dropped off in this league over the
6:20
Speaker 1: past two years. They intentionally deduced the baseball because there
6:24
Speaker 1: were too many home runs being hit. So the run
6:26
Speaker 1: environment now with the DJUS baseball is lower than it
6:29
Speaker 1: was last year. Home runs dropped off by But that
6:33
Speaker 1: being said, if you dig into park factor data and
6:36
Speaker 1: normalize it for that individual season. The data held pretty
6:41
Speaker 1: much exactly consistent. So even though the run environment dropped off,
6:45
Speaker 1: the relative runs per game to league average basically stay
6:49
Speaker 1: the same at all these home parks. So I think
6:51
Speaker 1: that in and of itself is is pretty much confirmation
6:54
Speaker 1: that these park factors are real and held up over
6:58
Speaker 1: a multiple year sample, even though the the game being
7:01
Speaker 1: played changed. But with that, you know, less need for
7:05
Speaker 1: guys to hit fly balls, more of a more of anita,
7:08
Speaker 1: move runners along, sacrifice batters, keep the ball in play,
7:12
Speaker 1: you know. That's that's what pitchers are doing. They're pitching
7:14
Speaker 1: the contact and trying to limit hard contact knowing that
7:16
Speaker 1: the ball isn't gonna really hurt them when it's in
7:18
Speaker 1: the air. So accounting for all of that, there's just
7:21
Speaker 1: so many more balls and played than you would see
7:23
Speaker 1: in a normal major league game today, and fewer home
7:26
Speaker 1: runs than you would see in a major league game,
7:28
Speaker 1: and the league average is sort of compared to what
7:31
Speaker 1: we saw in MLB in the eighties. You know, it's
7:33
Speaker 1: not baseball that I grew up watching. I was a
7:34
Speaker 1: nineties kid, so I grew up with that, and then
7:37
Speaker 1: slowly evolved into the analytics revolution that we have today.
7:40
Speaker 1: But it really is just a ton of balls and
7:42
Speaker 1: play a ton of action. You can see these games
7:45
Speaker 1: end in just the shade over two hours sometimes. So
7:47
Speaker 1: if if you like good quick baseball, the KBO is
7:50
Speaker 1: really gonna be attractive to people. So here's what's interesting.
7:52
Speaker 1: Everyone feels differently about their support. So I think I
7:54
Speaker 1: can I can find the apples to apples comparison. I'll
7:58
Speaker 1: watch any NFL game you give me the Bengals and
8:00
Speaker 1: Browns on the Monday night, and I'm gonna watch it
8:03
Speaker 1: if it's the only thing to watch. But baseball I
8:05
Speaker 1: don't feel that way right Baseball. I'm gonna watch the Cubs.
8:08
Speaker 1: I'm gonna watch sort of marquee matchups with high profile players.
8:12
Speaker 1: But you're not gonna get me to watch a random
8:14
Speaker 1: baseball game. You're not just watching a random baseball game.
8:17
Speaker 1: You're watching a random baseball game with nobody we've ever
8:20
Speaker 1: heard of. So is this because you love baseball so much? Like?
8:24
Speaker 1: Are you getting a kick out of this? Are you
8:26
Speaker 1: getting a kick out of the bedding? What's driving you
8:28
Speaker 1: to want to watch the KBO? Yeah? I mean there's
8:31
Speaker 1: certainly guys in the KBOs. The KBO is a pretty
8:33
Speaker 1: strong league. There's definitely guys who are major league caliber.
8:36
Speaker 1: There's certainly players you've heard of here from American baseball
8:39
Speaker 1: who are now applying their trade over there, trying to
8:41
Speaker 1: improve themselves or you know, just just finding themselves having
8:44
Speaker 1: success at a lower level where they can make a
8:46
Speaker 1: million dollars to play baseball that they would have otherwise
8:49
Speaker 1: been been playing minor league ball here and getting paid
8:52
Speaker 1: for the year. So these guys are getting paid for
8:54
Speaker 1: the first time in their lives, some of them, and
8:56
Speaker 1: making good money to do what they like to do.
8:58
Speaker 1: But at the same time, there's guys like Hassan Kim,
9:00
Speaker 1: who's the shortstop for the Koum Heroes, who is a
9:03
Speaker 1: hundred percent going to be posted to the major leagues
9:06
Speaker 1: next year. And if you he's he's twenty four years old.
9:08
Speaker 1: If you take his projections and kind of convert them
9:10
Speaker 1: over to major league projections, he's a guy who could
9:13
Speaker 1: conceivably be a guy at the major league level the
9:16
Speaker 1: average offender and and above a league average hit or
9:19
Speaker 1: at shortstops. So certainly a guy who's worth watching for
9:24
Speaker 1: MLB fans. If if your team is a needed shortstop,
9:26
Speaker 1: he could be a guy that ends up on your
9:28
Speaker 1: major league roster next year. There's other young outfielders around
9:31
Speaker 1: the league. You know guy one rookie the year two
9:33
Speaker 1: years ago set the Rocky home run record, who's certainly
9:35
Speaker 1: going to be on the radar major league teams in
9:37
Speaker 1: a few years. So there's high end talent who belongs
9:40
Speaker 1: in the major leagues. They just might not necessarily fit
9:43
Speaker 1: the modern major league environment. You know, a catcher like
9:46
Speaker 1: we Gang for the Dinos, who's in his thirties now,
9:48
Speaker 1: could absolutely be a major league catcher, but as a
9:51
Speaker 1: catcher in his thirties, he's not really going to attract
9:52
Speaker 1: a ton of interest from major league evaluators for his talent,
9:55
Speaker 1: even though he is good, just because the age and
9:57
Speaker 1: contract situation doesn't really match up. Uh Jian John Yang,
10:01
Speaker 1: who's the picture for the Key of Tigers. He's the
10:03
Speaker 1: best starter in the league. You know Hunt. We've seen
10:05
Speaker 1: hunin Row come over and have a lot of success
10:07
Speaker 1: here for the Blue Jays. Now he's got a big
10:10
Speaker 1: contract and said to see what he can do in
10:12
Speaker 1: the American League instead of the NL. But easily could
10:14
Speaker 1: have had success to the big leagues. He just spent
10:16
Speaker 1: his entire in Korea, but probably still could have success
10:19
Speaker 1: if you wanted to come over. So there's there's really
10:21
Speaker 1: good talent in this league. There's guys who are interesting
10:23
Speaker 1: to watch. There's guys that you know from playing a
10:26
Speaker 1: little bit over here. There's Korean stars who came over
10:29
Speaker 1: who didn't really have much success, like Young Hue Park
10:31
Speaker 1: and Kian Sue Kim, who maybe didn't get a fully
10:34
Speaker 1: fair crack at a major league job. But these guys
10:37
Speaker 1: are still absolute stars in Korea and completely beloved, and
10:40
Speaker 1: you can see how good they are relative to their
10:42
Speaker 1: their peers. So there's a lot of things that are interesting.
10:44
Speaker 1: It's not just being baseball. It's not just being based
10:47
Speaker 1: on a bet on. I think there's there's talent to evaluate,
10:50
Speaker 1: and there's guys who it's interesting to see maybe why
10:52
Speaker 1: I didn't work out at the MLB level for them,
10:54
Speaker 1: and why it works might work out at a lower level.
10:57
Speaker 1: I see you mentioned earlier. Let's go back to the beginning. Now,
11:00
Speaker 1: got a little background that um lines are moving like crazy,
11:04
Speaker 1: totals are moving like crazy. How like how good are
11:07
Speaker 1: the lines? How do you think bookmakers are doing with this?
11:11
Speaker 1: And who do you think is betting on this? I'm
11:12
Speaker 1: asking you three questions in one. So I think the
11:15
Speaker 1: lines are pretty good, the opening lines. They're definitely responding
11:18
Speaker 1: to pretty aggressive money, though, because I've seen the lines
11:20
Speaker 1: moving fast. I have seen a total two days ago,
11:24
Speaker 1: you know, wanted have betted it over eight and a
11:26
Speaker 1: half of By the time I checked it again, it
11:28
Speaker 1: was eight and a half minus one twenty. I checked
11:30
Speaker 1: it again, it was nine minus one. Ten tracked it again,
11:32
Speaker 1: it was nine minus one twenty. So every time I
11:34
Speaker 1: look back it was up ten cents. And that was
11:36
Speaker 1: all within the span at the twenty minutes basically, So
11:38
Speaker 1: there's there's big action coming in this league in terms of,
11:41
Speaker 1: you know, relative to everything that's going on right now.
11:43
Speaker 1: But I think the books are pulling a pretty good handle.
11:45
Speaker 1: I don't know how they're making their lines necessarily, how
11:47
Speaker 1: good their projections are, if they're sort of adjusting them
11:50
Speaker 1: every day based off of expected lineups, or if they're
11:52
Speaker 1: just sort of pulling in starting pitchers and putting in
11:55
Speaker 1: a new one. You know, maybe pulling out relief was
11:57
Speaker 1: based on who pitched the prior day. But like any
11:59
Speaker 1: other sport people are new to it and they're looking
12:01
Speaker 1: to bet favorites, and the favorites spying large seemed to
12:04
Speaker 1: be getting steamed up. So if you're looking to bet underdogs,
12:06
Speaker 1: I don't think you need to pounce on the line
12:08
Speaker 1: right away like you would for a Major League Baseball
12:10
Speaker 1: game MLB games, I'm usually sitting ready to go when
12:13
Speaker 1: when the lines come out and firing on the dogs
12:15
Speaker 1: that I want, because the generally, unless you're betting on
12:17
Speaker 1: the Orioles of the Royals, who nobody wants to bet on,
12:19
Speaker 1: those lines tend to go down the underdog lines if
12:21
Speaker 1: it's the right side where the k video lines. It
12:24
Speaker 1: seems like pretty much every underdog ends up getting more
12:27
Speaker 1: value later in the day, So stick around. Uh, don't
12:30
Speaker 1: don't rush into the dogs if you want to bet them.
12:32
Speaker 1: But beyond that, you know, it's it's still sort of
12:34
Speaker 1: something that I'm filling out, you know, the Samsung Lions
12:37
Speaker 1: home stadium and finding really interesting with those totals because
12:41
Speaker 1: the run environment there is about eleven percent above LEAUE
12:43
Speaker 1: average if you go by park factors, They're the one
12:45
Speaker 1: that really stands out and in terms of boosting a
12:47
Speaker 1: run environment. They took a bunch of over money the
12:50
Speaker 1: first two days, neither total hit. It took a bunch
12:53
Speaker 1: of under mooney yesterday and the game went over. You know,
12:55
Speaker 1: I was on the overall three days. So we'll see
12:57
Speaker 1: how that continues to evolve if I just sort of
12:59
Speaker 1: have total projected higher. If that that park environment is
13:03
Speaker 1: real and it plays out of the course of the season.
13:05
Speaker 1: Really interested to see how the ball continues to find
13:07
Speaker 1: this league. You know, we said that the ball was
13:10
Speaker 1: deej used, but I've definitely noticed a bunch of home
13:11
Speaker 1: runs over the first few days in this league, So
13:13
Speaker 1: maybe they introduced a more normalized ball now, something in
13:16
Speaker 1: between the two over the past two years. So there's
13:18
Speaker 1: a lot to watch and evaluate in this league. And
13:21
Speaker 1: I wouldn't just be fully ready to dump all my
13:23
Speaker 1: money on a on a max bet yet because I
13:26
Speaker 1: think I haven't had John something. I'm playing everything small
13:28
Speaker 1: for now and and letting it play out. Reminder, Denravel
13:32
Speaker 1: is coming up after Zarillo to talk about the two
13:35
Speaker 1: minutes that made one man seventy two million dollars. Before
13:41
Speaker 1: we do that, I do want to do a few
13:43
Speaker 1: minutes on UFC to fort nine Tony Ferguson minus one
13:48
Speaker 1: five versus Justin gave G. I think he's plus one fifty. Zerillo.
13:54
Speaker 1: You're also our UFC genius. Give me your take on
13:57
Speaker 1: this fight. Yes, So Tony is an absolute animal. His
14:00
Speaker 1: thing is stamina and just being able to outwork people
14:03
Speaker 1: for five rounds. He hasn't lost since May, so it's
14:07
Speaker 1: it's been quite the run for him. He's won twelve
14:10
Speaker 1: fights in a row. I mean, Tony's Tony's unique guy,
14:14
Speaker 1: is tough to beat. He certainly gets his stoppages. But
14:17
Speaker 1: gave G, you could say in the same respect, is
14:20
Speaker 1: just an absolute monster in terms of his ability to
14:23
Speaker 1: finish fights. So I think that's what makes this stylistically
14:27
Speaker 1: interesting is is you have two guys who seemed to
14:30
Speaker 1: almost have a bottomless tank in terms of their ability
14:33
Speaker 1: to keep finding the ability to come at you after
14:38
Speaker 1: multiple rounds of what would seemingly exhaust any other fighter.
14:42
Speaker 1: Gaig maybe is the most dangerous guy that Tony has
14:45
Speaker 1: ever fought in his ability to knock somebody out. So
14:47
Speaker 1: I do think that this is a live underdog here.
14:49
Speaker 1: Daij originally took this fight short rest, and now he's
14:53
Speaker 1: getting you know, more extended period of train leading up
14:56
Speaker 1: to it. Who really knows what these guys have in
14:58
Speaker 1: terms of their availability to train, its specific facilities. I'm
15:02
Speaker 1: sure is they're you know, more higher end fighters. They
15:05
Speaker 1: have access to stuff that guys on the undercard might not.
15:08
Speaker 1: So this is a unique card in terms of people
15:11
Speaker 1: being able to train leading up to it, being able
15:13
Speaker 1: to eat right leading up to it, uh, seeing their coaches,
15:16
Speaker 1: you know, working out with the right partners. It's a
15:19
Speaker 1: unique card to handicap on like any other really. But
15:22
Speaker 1: I think Gafe, you, like I said, is is very
15:25
Speaker 1: much a live dog just because he's he's got such
15:27
Speaker 1: a high probability of finishing any fight that he's in.
15:30
Speaker 1: I think he's he's one eighteen of fights by finish,
15:33
Speaker 1: so very scary, very very very scary contender there. And
15:38
Speaker 1: I think Tony Ferguson is in for the fight of
15:41
Speaker 1: his life certainly. So that's interesting because normally the m
15:44
Speaker 1: O is no matter what you bet the favorite in
15:47
Speaker 1: the UFC fights, because so often the favorite wins, even
15:52
Speaker 1: if he's a minus two fifty favorite, the value is
15:55
Speaker 1: almost always there because bookmakers will actually depress that number
15:59
Speaker 1: a little bit because they would like to get some
16:01
Speaker 1: money on the underdogs, um just because the historically there's
16:05
Speaker 1: such mismatches. So now all of a sudden you're talking
16:08
Speaker 1: about gate G is like a potential live dog, which
16:10
Speaker 1: means that one fifty you might be get some value
16:12
Speaker 1: on that, no question. And like I was saying, in
16:15
Speaker 1: terms of training, I'm pretty sure Ferguson lives in California.
16:17
Speaker 1: Gate G I knows from Arizona. I'm not sure where
16:19
Speaker 1: he trains, but I mean, thinking about Tony being in California,
16:23
Speaker 1: how much has he really been able to get out
16:25
Speaker 1: and trained with all the all the lockdown orders that
16:27
Speaker 1: they have there. It's pretty restrictive. So I know he
16:30
Speaker 1: likes to go up in a big bear, go up
16:31
Speaker 1: into the mountains, get that extra stamina base underneath him
16:34
Speaker 1: at higher altitude. And I'm not necessarily sure what he's
16:38
Speaker 1: been able to do leading up to this. So his
16:40
Speaker 1: his normal stamina advantage that he might have over a
16:42
Speaker 1: guy is going to be dissipated, probably especially getting up
16:46
Speaker 1: there in age as well. Now he's thirty six. You
16:47
Speaker 1: know it's at some point that's going to run out.
16:49
Speaker 1: But he's uh potentially an all timer, especially if he
16:52
Speaker 1: wins this fight. I just I think this is a
16:54
Speaker 1: live dog. Like I said, Sean's realow covering the UFC,
16:58
Speaker 1: covering the career of Aceball organization, covering horse racing, It's
17:03
Speaker 1: like there's nothing else going on except the sports that
17:06
Speaker 1: you cover. Thank you for coming on the podcast, Buddy,
17:09
Speaker 1: happy to do it. Thanks dropping. Next up, I've promised
17:11
Speaker 1: on the favorites. Darren Rivell, who has had just an
17:16
Speaker 1: unbelievable stretch of big stories for the Action Network Breaking News,
17:22
Speaker 1: and yesterday he did another one, a great feature the
17:25
Speaker 1: twenty year anniversary of the most expensive, the most valuable
17:30
Speaker 1: two minutes in sports history. Two minutes for seventy two
17:36
Speaker 1: million dollars, including an unbelievable scene with envelopes being slipped
17:42
Speaker 1: under hotel room doors. Darren, what in Heaven's name am
17:47
Speaker 1: I talking about? Well, Chad uh two thousand and two thousand, Um,
17:52
Speaker 1: there was a horse named Fusa Echi Pegasus that won
17:56
Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby. Didn't really know much about the story
17:59
Speaker 1: other than there was a Japanese owner. UM and I
18:02
Speaker 1: remember sold for seventy two million dollars, which was the
18:06
Speaker 1: highest at the time. And I in the past as
18:10
Speaker 1: American pharaoh and justify as their breeding rights came through.
18:16
Speaker 1: Every time I would say, well it still hasn't beaten
18:19
Speaker 1: out Fusaichi Pegasus. You mentioned Fusa Hchi Pegasus one the
18:23
Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, and he had a very interesting lineage and
18:28
Speaker 1: a very interesting ownership lineage. Explain some of the people involved.
18:32
Speaker 1: You know, maybe ten years ago I started to really
18:34
Speaker 1: understand the business side of horse racing, really the breeding side,
18:38
Speaker 1: which is amazing. So it's very important to start, you know,
18:42
Speaker 1: to be worth something as a stallion, that your lineage
18:46
Speaker 1: is great. You can't just be like a great racehorse.
18:49
Speaker 1: You're likely to be a better racehorse if you have
18:51
Speaker 1: great lineage. So this horse, Flusa Echi Pegasus, his father
18:58
Speaker 1: was Mr Prospector who in two thousand nineteen every single
19:04
Speaker 1: horse in the Kentucky Derby was connected to Mr Prospector,
19:08
Speaker 1: every single horse, so this was Mr Prospectors like second
19:14
Speaker 1: or third to last class um he died I think
19:18
Speaker 1: in and Bob McNair and another another guy who was
19:24
Speaker 1: his partner had bought a mayor for a lot of money.
19:29
Speaker 1: Also had great connections to a horse named Danzig, which
19:32
Speaker 1: is very very popular to breathe with. So they got
19:36
Speaker 1: together and they made this horse, and the horse sold
19:40
Speaker 1: for four million dollars as a yearling to Fusao Tekugucci,
19:46
Speaker 1: a huge record, and so it had started the hype
19:49
Speaker 1: machine even before the force started running. All right, so
19:53
Speaker 1: explain how the bidding goes. Okay, So what happens is
19:59
Speaker 1: the horse loses its first race by a neck, and
20:02
Speaker 1: so people kind of forget about it. But then the
20:04
Speaker 1: horse wins and winds and wins. It gets a very
20:08
Speaker 1: late start, so it's only it had only run five
20:12
Speaker 1: races by the time the Kentucky Derby came along, only
20:15
Speaker 1: winning one Grade one stakes. But it is the Wood Memorial,
20:19
Speaker 1: which is a very big race after the Kentucky Derby,
20:24
Speaker 1: where the horse one pretty convincingly having not led down
20:29
Speaker 1: the final stretch. They got in a Louisville hotel. All
20:33
Speaker 1: the breeders are in Louisville or Lexington. They decided that
20:37
Speaker 1: the first round would be a slip under the hotel
20:40
Speaker 1: door bidding process, and they got three bids thirty, forty
20:46
Speaker 1: and fifty million dollars. And this was just the opening salvo.
20:51
Speaker 1: It's so interesting to me, what is the expected r
20:54
Speaker 1: all I on something like that put in dollars, What
20:58
Speaker 1: are you expecting to That's a great question. So the
21:02
Speaker 1: way this works is they back end into it. A
21:06
Speaker 1: average stud does about two hundred of these things a year,
21:11
Speaker 1: impregnates two hundred mayors. And what you want to do
21:14
Speaker 1: if you're paying seventy two million, which was the ultimate
21:18
Speaker 1: split between cool Moore Aspord stud is their American operation
21:25
Speaker 1: and should Die Farm, which was a Japanese operation, just
21:28
Speaker 1: for seventy million dollars, Ultimately you want to make back
21:32
Speaker 1: eight percent of that money in year one. That meant
21:35
Speaker 1: that they had figured out that they were probably going
21:39
Speaker 1: to stand him at stud for two hundred twenty five
21:43
Speaker 1: thousand dollars per live full, so to twenty five times
21:47
Speaker 1: two hundred equals forty five million. So they thought they
21:50
Speaker 1: could do about forty five million in the first year.
21:53
Speaker 1: Now what happened was the horse then lost the Preakness,
21:57
Speaker 1: did not win the Breeders Cup, and there was a
22:00
Speaker 1: little bit less buzz, and so they opened him up
22:02
Speaker 1: at a hundred fifty thousand per life full. So already
22:06
Speaker 1: they were kind of behind the eight ball because they
22:08
Speaker 1: weren't making up the standard mathematical formula that they felt
22:13
Speaker 1: they needed to make based on paying seventy million dollars.
22:16
Speaker 1: Can you imagine what the bidding process. You're in a
22:20
Speaker 1: hotel room in Louisville, you're the owner. You've got these
22:24
Speaker 1: envelopes coming in and explain a little bit, like it's
22:27
Speaker 1: not like the owner. You know, it was flush with cash,
22:29
Speaker 1: but at times he was broke. He shouldn't even been
22:32
Speaker 1: allowed to buy the horse. That was something that I
22:35
Speaker 1: had not known. That was in like one or two
22:39
Speaker 1: articles like completely buried. That was my favorite part of
22:43
Speaker 1: the story. And so he got the horse, the Foosie
22:46
Speaker 1: Pegasus horse at the Keenland sale in six he had
22:52
Speaker 1: bought seven horses for five point seven five million at
22:55
Speaker 1: the Quisland sale. Turned out he didn't have the money.
22:58
Speaker 1: You had to return all the horses. That seems like
23:01
Speaker 1: that does not pass the normal checks. Like the guy
23:04
Speaker 1: had a return all the horses, and now he's won
23:06
Speaker 1: the bid for the horse that that someone paid the
23:09
Speaker 1: most for in like fifteen years. Like you think he's
23:12
Speaker 1: good for that? And he got fired from his job
23:16
Speaker 1: directly related to being extravagant. Now, then he started his
23:21
Speaker 1: own company a couple of years later, and that's at
23:23
Speaker 1: that point, that's when he bought Fusaichi Pegasus. Yeah, the
23:27
Speaker 1: seventy two million. The only thing I can relate it
23:29
Speaker 1: to is Lebron James in an Acron hotel, the Nike Reebok,
23:36
Speaker 1: back and forth, and then the story takes another turn,
23:39
Speaker 1: which is basically the guy completely disappears from horse racing.
23:45
Speaker 1: Doesn't work that way. You get the bug and you
23:47
Speaker 1: try to do it again. That does not happen where
23:51
Speaker 1: people He had one more horse that he paid eight
23:55
Speaker 1: million dollars for two thousand four. That horse didn't work out,
23:58
Speaker 1: had to retire early, never see the guy again. In fact,
24:01
Speaker 1: I couldn't find a single article on this guy, despite
24:05
Speaker 1: the fact that Wikipedia says he's still alive and four.
24:09
Speaker 1: I could not find a single article on this guy
24:11
Speaker 1: past two thousand. I like that about him. It's counter
24:15
Speaker 1: to what his narrative had been, which was hustle, mask
24:21
Speaker 1: get in front of the get in front of what
24:24
Speaker 1: feels like you being broke, and then trying to fool
24:28
Speaker 1: people into letting you back into the game. He got
24:31
Speaker 1: out to where he needed to be. He made seventy
24:34
Speaker 1: million dollars, and he got out he's like, I won,
24:37
Speaker 1: I gained the system. Yeah, it's unpredictable. It makes it
24:40
Speaker 1: a good it makes it, it makes it a good story.
24:43
Speaker 1: You know, these guys have to believe that lineage matters.
24:47
Speaker 1: But it's it's just not one to one and it's
24:51
Speaker 1: and nothing's guaranteed. So the last part of the story
24:54
Speaker 1: is cool more which again Ashford stud which is in Versailles, Kentucky,
25:00
Speaker 1: now stands fourteen studs, including American Pharaoh, which they paid.
25:07
Speaker 1: They constructed the deal before he won the Triple crown,
25:10
Speaker 1: so it's like thirty million justified, which they paid seventy
25:14
Speaker 1: five million, four with a with a bonus. That number
25:17
Speaker 1: for Fusah Pegasus is actually a hundred and four million,
25:20
Speaker 1: and if your inflation adjusted to today, and Fushichi Pegasus
25:24
Speaker 1: is the last guy in the barn, there's fourteen of them.
25:29
Speaker 1: Fusai Echi Pegasus is the cheapest horse at seventy per
25:34
Speaker 1: lif fall. He's been the same price for seven years.
25:37
Speaker 1: His horses have not done anything, and only five breeders
25:44
Speaker 1: bred him last year. So even at the bargain basement
25:48
Speaker 1: price of only five, people were interested in trying to
25:54
Speaker 1: see if it would work. Out. Do you know how
25:57
Speaker 1: much in the twenty years, how much it's made. I
26:00
Speaker 1: tried to do the math. The problem is that the
26:03
Speaker 1: horse was being shuttled from from here to Japan and
26:08
Speaker 1: breeding in both places, so it's possible that in the
26:12
Speaker 1: beginning he was doing more than two hundred. The count
26:16
Speaker 1: in America is a little bit better. I would say
26:19
Speaker 1: they probably made thirty million back against what is now
26:23
Speaker 1: a hundred and four million. They probably lost seven to
26:26
Speaker 1: two millions. Oh my god, that is a crazy speculative
26:32
Speaker 1: market volatility environment. I mean, horse breeding is just, you know,
26:39
Speaker 1: an unreal thing that happens. And they've tried to make
26:43
Speaker 1: the greatest combinations and sometimes it happens something it doesn't.
26:46
Speaker 1: And what was amazing about Fusai et Pegasus is that
26:51
Speaker 1: when you look at this horse, you just say wow.
26:56
Speaker 1: Confirmation is the number one thing that I think throught
26:59
Speaker 1: having been to a couple of these sales, confirmation is
27:02
Speaker 1: the one thing that throws people off, which is referring
27:05
Speaker 1: to the body and bone structure. And there are guys
27:08
Speaker 1: that just look so great that you just have to
27:12
Speaker 1: throw money at them. Well, look, it's no different than
27:15
Speaker 1: drafting any player in the NBA, Major League's NFL. Of course,
27:19
Speaker 1: off of how they look versus what they're underlying stats
27:21
Speaker 1: are the other thing. I will say, breeding is a
27:24
Speaker 1: miracle in a mystery, no matter what industry you're in, human,
27:28
Speaker 1: horse or otherwise. I would say people have said to me,
27:33
Speaker 1: what's the most dangerous job in horse racing? And people
27:37
Speaker 1: automatically go to, Oh, it's those guys who get loaded
27:40
Speaker 1: in the gates before the race starts. Nope, it's the
27:44
Speaker 1: guys in the breeding shed, very very dangerous job. Well, Darren,
27:49
Speaker 1: that could be your next fade revel bet right, the
27:54
Speaker 1: revel great story on Fusichi Pegasus and it's stud fees
27:59
Speaker 1: and seventy million dollars out of two minutes of brilliance.
28:03
Speaker 1: If only I could get seventy two million dollars out
28:05
Speaker 1: of two minutes brilliance, and I wouldn't want you to
28:07
Speaker 1: because then I wouldn't have you. You go, I'd be
28:11
Speaker 1: I'd be the Japanese owner of this horse, and you'd
28:14
Speaker 1: never hear from me again. All Right, Darren, I'm gonna
28:17
Speaker 1: talk to you again in three minutes for our call
28:19
Speaker 1: about the next thing we're talking about. All right, Darren,
28:24
Speaker 1: thank you Sir, this has been the favorites from the
28:28
Speaker 1: Action Network. I am Shad Noman. Subscribe, resubscribe, rates, comment
28:34
Speaker 1: for you. Listen to the Apple podcasts at Stitcher, at Spotify,
28:37
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Until next time, I Love
28:40
Speaker 1: you