Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 154 - 11/1/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 154 - 11/1/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 154 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy Friday, happy 1st of November.
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Hope everyone had a fantastic Halloween.
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I had a great time handing out candy with the wife and the dog.
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It was a great time last night. One of my favorite holidays, of
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course. But now, once you get Halloween
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over with, you turn the page to November.
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We're kind of getting into, you know, fall into winter here.
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You're going to have Thanksgiving before you know it,
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the holidays, the New Year's coming up.
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So let's see if we can finish off again.
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I might be getting ahead of myself, but finish off the year
1:03
of 2024 on a hot note with just two months left before it
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becomes 2025 S Looking toward today, guys.
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A lot to get to. I have a three pack of sweats
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for you. I'm going to have all three
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plays in college football tonight.
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Interesting angle here. We have 3 really sharp
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contrarian opportunities or I guess one's coupler sharp, and 1
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is what I would call a good value play with a good system
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match opportunity. And then we're going to unveil
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our final best bet card for the weekend.
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I've 3 college football games to share with you.
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Haven't really talked about these much all week, but three
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in particular caught my eye, including all of the three most
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heavily bet games of the weekend, so stay tuned for that.
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Also have 4 bets in the NFL, a couple that we already talked
1:44
about, another total that I just added cuz I'm hoping this thing
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goes under. And then you guys know the drill
1:50
on a Friday. A little bit of biting, a little
1:52
bit of UFCI. Found a very interesting system
1:56
match in the UFC where we're checking off every box.
1:59
Younger, taller, longer reach, line move, low bets, higher
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dollars. Hoping that this brighter can
2:05
come through for us tomorrow. Now looking back to our last
2:08
night, guys, I buried the lead. What a beautiful Jets game last
2:12
night. Chef's kiss.
2:14
I went into last night saying, here I go, I'm going to go play
2:17
The Jets again. They're going to let me down.
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I'm going to be on the sharp side, but they're so terrible.
2:21
They're going to cost me money once again.
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And wouldn't you know it, we got rewarded by sticking to the
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model, sticking to the blueprint.
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And that's the type of game where you go into it saying,
2:30
man, Houston's way better. Houston is the dog.
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I saw this all over Twitter. The wrong team is favored.
2:36
People thinking they're smarter than the odds makers.
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No, you're not. Let me just tell you right now,
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I'm not. You're not.
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The odds makers are the sharpest guys in the room.
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But as the All Systems Go podcast tries to teach, let's
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stick with what the market is telling us.
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And what did the market tell us? It told us that even though
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Houston was a very popular bet, getting around 70% of bets or
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more, the line went to The Jets. So that's one of the easiest
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indicators of smart money. That's one of the first
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indicators that I ever learned when I kind of picked up the
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sharp, contrarian, data-driven philosophy.
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Reverse line movement. When the betting line goes away
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from the popular side Houston toward the popular side Jets.
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Jets were again hovering around to pick em -1 got up to 2 1/2.
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Why was that line going further to The Jets if everyone's
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playing Houston? So we had the stones to stick
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with the data in the market. And wouldn't you know what?
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The Jets rewarded us with A great fade.
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The trendy dog cash ticket last night.
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We even leaned under. The under came through.
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We also got Garrett Wilson over 59 1/2 receiving yards.
3:36
Had an incredible touchdown catch.
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One of the best catches I've ever seen.
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Kind of remind me of that OBJ catch in the corner of the end
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zone against the Cowboys when he was a rookie.
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Wilson went over 59 half. I think it was close to like 90
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receiving yards. So we doubled up Jets and
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Wilson, which we were hoping for, unfortunately couldn't go 3
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and O kept keeping us from three.
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And O was the Chicago Blackhawks.
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They were mounting a furious comeback in the third period.
4:00
They lost 3:00 to 2:00. But when I got home and turned
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on the third period, they were just pouring it on.
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The entire third period was in the zone of the Sharks and just
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could not breakthrough so couldn't get the Blackhawks.
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But either way, guys a winning night. 2 and 1 + 0.68 units and
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again, Jetson Wilson. Great caches last night.
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Let's see if we can keep this momentum going into a big
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weekend. Now I want to remind everyone
4:26
that I will be back. I was off last week, but I'll be
4:28
back for the rhythm Sunday sweats live stream.
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So TuneIn on Sunday, 11:00 AM Eastern Time.
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I know it's I believe it's I heard a rumor that it was
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daylight savings time. So get an extra hour of sleep,
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Make sure clocks are working. But 11:00 AM Eastern Time
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myself, James Santor will be back at it breaking down the NFL
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slate. So I invite all of you to join
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us. Might have some more you know
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player props or game bets if you just you know relate to the
4:52
party and want some updates heading into kickoff.
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I'll see you guys at 11:00 AM Eastern Time stream live on
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Twitter. So that about is our intro here
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guys so let's get right after it.
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We have a bunch of plays here for tonight a three pack
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overall. I could have maybe squeezed in a
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A basketball play. I could have squeezed in the
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hockey play. But I really like the college
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football slate here tonight. So let's see if we can focus on
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college football and hopefully get a couple wins here.
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All three bets are in college. Let's try to go 2 and one and
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eke out another winning night. So I want to start off with this
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triple header here tonight. Let's go to Connecticut, near
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and dear to my heart, pretty close to me in New England.
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My grandmother actually passed away a couple years ago, but she
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lived in Connecticut. She was a big UConn Huskies
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basketball fan, but UConn football team at home against
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Georgia State. This is a 7:00 PM Eastern Time
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game on CBS Sports Network. We have Georgia State coming in
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two and five. They've lost four straight
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games. Just came up short against App
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State 33 to 26. Did however, cover as a 7 1/2
5:52
point Rd. dog. You know, UConn five and three
5:54
having a pretty good year. They've won four, their last
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five. Just beat Rice 17 to 10, pushing
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as a 7 point home favorite. So what have we seen across the
6:03
market here? Well, this one's kind of been
6:05
back and forth. It opened around UConn -7 at
6:08
home, so 7 point home favorite for the Huskies.
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And earlier in the week it got all the way up to UConn -8 1/2.
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So it's like OK, lines going to UConn.
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They're the very popular bet tonight.
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UConn is getting what is it? They are getting 71% of spread
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bets. So Publix play in UConn line
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went to UConn. Really wasn't much to take from
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that. You know, obviously the line
6:29
moving toward the popular side. However, once it got up all the
6:32
way to Yukon -8 1/2, that's when we started to see quite a bit of
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sharp buyback on Georgia State. So this 8 1/2's got back down to
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7 1/2 and a bunch of shops now are even down to seven.
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So that's notable to me the fact that we've seen heavy betting on
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Yukon, yet when it went to 8 1/2, didn't stay 8 1/2 or get up
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to 9, it started to come back down 7 half or seven.
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So I'm going to go with this contrarian play with Georgia
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State heavily bet game. They're only getting 29% of
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spread bets. So it's a classic bet against
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the public play, but it does have the indication of sharp
7:04
resistance or buy back the fact that those eight and a halfs are
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down to 7 1/2 or 7. So shop around.
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I got the seven and a half here, plus 7 1/2.
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I got it at, I think it was -115 at Fanatics.
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They're also 7 1/2 -, 120 at FanDuel.
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So make sure you get the hook because there are a lot of books
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that are at 7:00. But I grabbed the seven half
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with Georgia State contrarian sharp buyback after it got to
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the high watermark of 8 1/2. So basically game day movement
7:29
is coming back toward Georgia State in the points.
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Now if you look at Georgia State, they match one system
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that we've leaned on quite a bit on Friday nights.
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Have you guys noticed on Friday nights we tend to take some dogs
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and they tend to bark for us. Knock on wood, but Rd. dogs on
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Friday night in college football this year are 14 and five
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against the spread 73%. So I don't know if that's
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something to do with maybe that the home favorite on a Friday
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night campus is going wild. Maybe your player who's looking
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forward to the after parties, if you know what I'm saying, I
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don't know, maybe that's it. Maybe that has nothing to do
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with it. But we have seen these Rd. dogs
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perform very well in in general. So that would match here with
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Georgia State. Now the Panthers, Georgia State
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Panthers also are an additional buy low value play as a dog on a
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losing streak because they've lost four straight.
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So you're basically buying low on Georgia State.
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You're selling high on Yukon, who's a favorite and have won
8:19
for their last five. Now.
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It's a bit of a dog low. Total correlative.
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You know, you're getting 7 1/2 with Georgia State, total is 47
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1/2. It did fall a little bit.
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Looks like there was some under money here, 48 1/2 down to 47
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1/2. The public's going over 70% of
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bets get that total fell. And it's a little bit of a windy
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under. You're getting around 7 to 10
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mile power winds here with Georgia State.
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But yeah, it all up here, guys, this is a very lopsided play.
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It's coming back toward Georgia State.
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I'm going to take the points here in Bilo and Georgia State
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again. Last week they were 7 1/2 dog
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and they lost by 7. I'll take that again tonight,
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although maybe lose by 6 or less if you can't find the hook here.
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But again, two big books are offering the hook.
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So I'm going to go Georgia State in the points plus 7 1/2 in the
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first game of the night. Second game of the night, South
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Florida and Florida Atlantic a battle here in the state of
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Florida 7:30 PM Eastern Time tonight on ESPN 2 S Florida
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comes in three and four. They just snapped A3 game losing
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skid with a 3525 win over UAB, but they did not cover as a 14
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point home favorite. Meanwhile, Ford Atlantic two and
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five. They've lost three of their last
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four just lost to UTSA 3824 did not cover as a four and a half
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point Rd. dog. So what we've seen across the
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market here, well, South Florida opened around a 2 1/2 point Rd.
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favorite and the public is saying let's # S Florida better
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record, even though it's a losing record, better record
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coming off a win. You know, Ford Atlantic, let's
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not even touch them. They've lost the three of their
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last four just lost and didn't cover.
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So public is all over South Florida.
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South Florida is currently getting 75% of tickets now open
10:00
-2 1/2. S Florida that heavy, heavy
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support brought it up to three, but all those threes are coming
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back down to 2 1/2. So that tells me that you had a
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lot of sharp buyback on Florida Atlantic plus three probably
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situation where the public, you know, it's pounding South
10:15
Florida, but wise guys are saying, hey, let's hold out for
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that key number. So anytime the three got got
10:20
available or was available, got hit by FAU plus three, bring it
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back down to 2 1/2. So it's mostly at 2 1/2 across
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the market. I would hold out for the three.
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Now Caesar's right now is offering FAU +3.
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So that was that's where I got FAU +3.
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A lot of books are 2 1/2. If you only have access to a 2
10:38
1/2, I would consider waiting it out and and holding out for the
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three. Obviously it's a key number.
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They lose by three. You got to push that.
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You can't lose that. You could even consider buying
10:47
it up to plus 3 -, 120. But Long story short, do your
10:50
best to get the three if you're going to play Florida Atlantic
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with me. But we have that chart buyback.
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FAU is only getting 25% of bets. Contrarian and heavily bet ESPN
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2 game, they're three back down to 2 1/2 telling us again, we
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have game day buyback. Basically we're at a line
11:04
freeze, you know, open -2 1/2 Florida, South Florida, you're
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still 2 1/2 even though three out of four bets are on South
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Florida. So it tells me oddsmakers taking
11:13
a position here on Florida Atlantic.
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And think about it this way. Only one book really is offering
11:17
a three. Basically the threes are books
11:19
are not offering the three. Why?
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Because they probably don't want to give it out to wise guys and
11:24
wise gals like the ASG pod crew. But anyway, if you'll get
11:28
forward Atlantic, they also have value as a conference dog.
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So the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the
11:33
playing field, benefiting the team, getting points.
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You also have some smart money hitting this under it open as
11:39
high as 54. It's all the way down to 47 and
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a half. 81% of bets are going over yet it fell Now this is a
11:45
bit of a windy under looking at around 12 to 15 mile per hour
11:49
winds. I was leaning pretty hard to
11:50
this under. I was just saying, man, I
11:52
missed, you know, closer to A50 here, but I also think it's kind
11:55
of just a a desperation spot for FAU and with that liability, you
11:59
know, I lean under, but I'm going to stick with my plus 3
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here. I'm going to go Florida Atlantic
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plus three, another very contrarian dog with some sharp
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line freeze and reverse line movement.
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And then also our friends at juice Reel Robo Jackson, one of
12:12
his AI driven best bet picks today.
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There's two each day that come out at noon.
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One of them is on FAU plus the points.
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And then also with with Juice Reel, there's a 20% sharp mush
12:23
indicator on Florida Atlantic basically saying the sharper
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people in the app are betting FAU versus the worst betters in
12:29
the app going with South Florida.
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So try to hold out for the three, Shop for it, wait for it.
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You could consider buying it up if you want, but try to get that
12:37
three again. It's available at Caesar's.
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I'm on FAU +3. Now we get to the last game of
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the night, San Diego State and Boise State.
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What is a big one? There's a big number here.
12:49
So is this a blowout for Boise State or can San Diego State,
12:52
Can the Aztecs keep it close? That's the question.
12:54
But San Diego State comes in three and four.
12:57
They just saw their two game win streak come to an end.
12:59
They lost to Washington State 2926, but they did cover as a 17
13:03
point home dog. Meanwhile, Boise six and one
13:05
ranked 15th in the country. Ashton Gente, one of the Heisman
13:08
favorites here, they've won five straight.
13:10
They just took down UNLV 2924 covering as a four point Rd.
13:15
dog. I'm annoyed by that still
13:16
because I had UNLV plus the points, but this line open Boise
13:20
listed as a 23 1/2 point home favorite.
13:23
So big number here. We've seen this line get bet up
13:26
to now 24 1/2. So the lines going toward Boise,
13:29
the public is hammering Boise. They're not afraid by this big
13:32
spread. They're saying Boise is going to
13:33
win this game. You know, 47 to nothing.
13:37
So currently you're getting across the market 70% of spread
13:41
bets laying it with Boise and the line did move toward Boise.
13:44
Now, however, though, you're maybe seeing a little bit of
13:47
buyback here on San Diego State because a lot of these books are
13:50
San Diego State plus 24 1/2, but they're juiced up plus 24 1/2 at
13:55
-115 and you actually have a couple of shops that are
13:58
actually creeping back down to 24.
14:00
So it looks like the odds makers again said, hey, we're we'll
14:03
move this a little bit, you know, toward toward Boise State.
14:08
But maybe 24 1/2 is as far as they're willing to go because
14:11
it's again juiced up and maybe getting back down to 24.
14:14
Actually see one book that is back down to 24.
14:16
So I'm not going to call San Diego State the sharpest play in
14:19
the world, but this is a contrarian value play for me.
14:23
You're super contrarian in the most heavily backed game of the
14:25
night. So currently, again, Boise State
14:28
is only getting 30% of spread bets.
14:30
You're an inflated line value play because it opened plus 23
14:33
1/2. Now you're getting 24 1/2 and
14:35
maybe you're getting a little bit of that buyback with the
14:37
juiced up side back towards San Diego State.
14:39
So I'm taking San Diego State plus 24 1/2.
14:42
I got that at ESPN. Bet we have a couple shops that
14:45
are offering that 24 1/2. Ideally we want to see this
14:49
thing close at 24. We want to see those hooks
14:51
evaporate. You want to get the hook and see
14:53
it fall. That'll be a good sign that
14:55
we're getting the best of the number you would match with that
14:58
Friday Rd. dog system match 14 and five against the spread 74%
15:02
this year. San Diego State is also a a buy
15:05
low unranked dog against a sell high ranked opponent.
15:09
So Boise State ranked. San Diego State is not
15:12
conference dog that built in familiarity in the Mountain
15:14
West. Also some correlative betting
15:16
value. I mean, this total is 56 1/2.
15:19
It actually fell, you know, it was 57 1/2.
15:22
It's kind of windy at Albertson Stadiums on the blue turf.
15:25
So it's a bit of a windy under system match.
15:27
But thing with this way, you're getting 24 1/2 with a dog totals
15:30
56 1/2. That's a relatively low total in
15:33
college that would be high total NFL, but college that's
15:36
relatively low. So it's such a big spread and
15:38
kind of a relatively low total. You know, it's going to be kind
15:41
of hard for Boise State to cover that number.
15:43
So I'm going to take the points here, guys.
15:45
I'm going to hope that San Diego State can keep this thing close.
15:48
Maybe the hook will be crucial here, but I'm going to San Diego
15:51
State at plus 24 1/2. So we got three dogs tonight.
15:55
Can we get two of these dogs to bark?
15:57
Georgia State plus 7 1/2, FAU +3 and San Diego State plus 24 1/2.
16:03
Now let's look toward the weekend.
16:05
Big weekend ahead of your guys. I'm excited because I'm going to
16:09
write my sharp report for visa.com for college football
16:11
tomorrow morning, so stay tuned for that.
16:13
But once I do that, getting in the car, I'm going to meet my
16:16
buddies for a big weekend at BET MGM where we are going to sweat
16:20
all the games together. And my buddy got a suite for us.
16:23
So I'm I'm looking forward to that.
16:24
So I'll be back with the boys very much looking forward to it.
16:28
But anyway, you don't care about that.
16:30
Hopefully you care about some winning bets here.
16:32
So let's start off with Ohio State.
16:34
And Penn State is the biggest game of the weekend, most
16:37
heavily bet game of the weekend by far.
16:40
It's a noon start here on Fox, and I'm taking the points of
16:43
Penn State. Now, if we look at how this
16:46
thing is developed, Ohio State comes in six and one ranked 4th
16:49
in the country, Penn State 7 and O ranked third in the country.
16:52
But I'm going to go Penn State for a couple reasons #1 the
16:55
lines moving toward Penn State this game open Ohio State -3 1/2
17:00
- 4. A lot of these books are now
17:02
getting down to three. Now, the key here is you got to
17:05
get the hook. I was able to get plus 3 1/2
17:07
Penn State -120 at FanDuel, there's a couple books offering
17:10
the hook. You could wait it out, see if it
17:12
rises back, you could buy it up. The hook could be critical
17:16
though, So do your best to get the hook.
17:17
But I'm on Penn State plus 3 1/2 again.
17:19
They open 4 or 3 1/2. They're they're falling down to
17:22
three. They're only getting 41% of
17:24
bets. Now 41% isn't the most
17:27
contrarian number in the world. Like, you know, it's not like
17:29
The Jets last night getting 20% or you know, when we had the,
17:32
the Rams against the, the Vikings getting 10%.
17:35
But still, it's the most heavily backed game of the day.
17:37
And you're against the public 60%.
17:39
Ohio State public contrarian will be Penn State, so this
17:43
would qualify as a reverse line move.
17:44
Public Ohio State yet lines falling to Penn State.
17:48
And then here's another angle that I really like. 2 top five
17:50
teams play each other. Take the dog.
17:53
It's three and O against the spread this year.
17:56
And actually if you look back historically, you don't have a
17:59
lot of these matchups, but since 2006, it's 29 and 17 against the
18:03
spread 63%. And if you remember, this is the
18:06
same spot, ironically, Ohio State when they went to Oregon,
18:11
do you guys remember that? We had Oregon in the points
18:13
there. They won by one point, same sort
18:15
of thing. If you remember prior to that,
18:17
back in late September, we had Alabama against Georgia when
18:21
Bama was in that spot. So this is kind of that on this
18:24
top five teams, two really good teams.
18:26
Take the dog, especially if it's a home dog.
18:28
So with that angle, contrarian, some line movement, I'm on Penn
18:32
State, guys. Let's go Nittany Lions again.
18:35
Do your best to find the hook. Fanduel's got it.
18:36
Right now I'm on Penn State plus 3 1/2 and I got it at -120 By
18:42
the way, it is a conference game as well, which I'll take every
18:45
time. Conference dog levels the
18:47
playing field, benefits the team getting points.
18:49
Next one for you, Texas A&M against South Carolina.
18:54
Big match up here, which is technically the SEC as would you
18:59
have Texas A&M? Yeah, SEC here, but looking into
19:04
it, this is another contrarian home dog with a line move.
19:08
Now going into it, A&M is 7 and one, ranked 10th in the country.
19:12
South Carolina four and three unranked.
19:14
So it's 730 primetime. ABC, so very heavily back game.
19:19
And the first thing I noticed is that everybody and their mother
19:22
is on Texas A&M. Texas A&M is getting 79% of
19:26
spread bets. However, Texas A&M opened around
19:30
-3 1/2 some books, I want to say there's one book maybe that had
19:35
a 443 and a half, but now it's down to 3 1/2 or even 3.
19:39
So why is the line not moving up to A and M -, 4 - 5?
19:44
Everybody and their mother is playing A&M getting nearly 80%
19:47
of bets. Well, tells me there's an
19:49
opportunity here to go the other way and take South Carolina in
19:52
the point. So I like this spot toward South
19:54
Carolina. I got South Carolina plus 3 1/2.
19:57
Now that's pretty widely available here.
19:59
Let me just double check. Which books are offering it?
20:03
But yeah, let me see here you have South Carolina should be
20:09
pretty widely available, plus 3 1/2.
20:12
Let me see which books are offering it at Well, Fanduel's
20:16
got it. I think Fanatics has it as well.
20:19
But again, some books are down to three.
20:20
So this is kind of similar to that Penn State one where you
20:22
got to get the hook, but plus 3 1/2 falling down to three.
20:26
Even though everyone's playing. A&M tells me we got smart money
20:29
on South Carolina. They're only getting 21% of
20:32
bets, but 59% of money. A huge low bets, higher dollars
20:36
bet split, unranked, first ranked.
20:38
So by law opportunity here, SEC dog conference dog system match.
20:42
It's also a rest first tired because you had A&M play LSU
20:46
last week and South Carolina has been off for a week.
20:48
They last played Oklahoma, remember?
20:50
We played him in that one. That was dog to fave on the
20:52
road. They crushed Oklahoma 35 to 9,
20:54
so rest first tired. Also, if you look with our
20:59
friends at Rhythm, they're predicting South Carolina plus
21:02
2.6. So this should be again a close
21:05
game. You know, you really got to get
21:07
the hook here. It is available.
21:08
I just double checked at both Fanatics and FanDuel.
21:10
But I'm going to go contrarian. Low bets, higher dollars, some
21:14
reverse line movement on ranked, first ranked good Rhythm edge.
21:17
Let's go Gamecocks. I'm on South Carolina plus 3
21:20
1/2. Next one for you.
21:23
You might puke in your mouth when I tell you about this one,
21:26
but let's look at Michigan and Oregon.
21:28
Third most heavily back game of the weekend.
21:30
It's a 3:30 PM Eastern Time game on CBS.
21:33
Of course we know Oregon coming in number one team in the
21:35
country, 8 and O. They've been rolling pretty much
21:38
everybody. Michigan's been a
21:40
disappointment. They're five and three, but
21:42
they're unranked. So going into it, we saw Oregon
21:45
open around a 14 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
21:48
Some shops are a little higher. I think I saw an opener one shop
21:51
was closer like 15 or 16, but it quickly came down.
21:54
But you are starting to see some books creep down to 14.
21:58
So the lines coming toward Michigan guys.
21:59
And why is this important? Because nobody wants to play
22:03
Michigan. Oregon is such a huge public
22:06
bet. If you look across the market,
22:07
Oregon is getting 82% of spread bets, 82%.
22:12
So regardless of the line movement, which is a sharp line
22:15
freeze on Michigan pretty much stayed the same or even some RLM
22:18
moving toward Michigan, even though everyone's playing
22:20
Oregon. And again, Oregon getting 82%.
22:22
Why aren't they up to -15 -, 16 -, 17?
22:25
No, it's coming back toward Michigan.
22:27
And that's important because again, no one wants to play
22:30
Michigan. But if you look at this angle
22:34
from a or this game from a different angle, it's just a
22:36
great value play guys, because you have Oregon again, number
22:39
one team in the country. You'll see this in college
22:41
basketball too. Betting against the top ranked
22:43
team like this is the the public's, you know, easiest play
22:46
of the weekend. Oregon, they'll, they're
22:47
crushing everybody. They'll easily beat Michigan,
22:49
you know by you know 3 touchdowns.
22:52
However, the lions coming back to our Michigan.
22:54
This is a 330 game where you're super contrarian 18 only 18% of
22:58
bets unranked versus ranked. It's also a good correlative
23:01
betting play because you're a big dog 14 1/2 with a hook total
23:05
in this game is only 45. So if your amount of expected
23:08
points scored harder for that favorite to cover.
23:10
You do have Michigan five and one at home in Oregon.
23:13
Even though they're really good. It is their first year in the
23:15
Big 10. And when you're going from, you
23:18
know, PAC 12 Mountain West, when you're playing a lot of those
23:21
smaller schools and I go to, you know, the Big 10, you know, I'm
23:24
going to give that as maybe an edge toward Michigan where
23:26
Oregon is the better team. But again, can they win by 14 or
23:30
less? This is a play that I got to
23:32
make every time. This is kind of like that Rams
23:34
play with that line move despite only getting 10% of bets.
23:38
I'm going Michigan Wolverines guys in the points shop around
23:41
the hooks pretty widely available.
23:43
I'm on Michigan plus 14 1/2, so Michigan plus 14 and half, South
23:47
Carolina +3 and half, Penn State +3 and half.
23:49
Make sure you get those hooks and key numbers.
23:53
Now over to the UFC because we got a big slate here this
23:57
weekend in the Octagon, biting in the UFC.
24:00
And I'm going to go right to the main event, the big enchilada,
24:05
the quesadilla, the big one here.
24:07
And I'm going to look at Brandon Moreno.
24:10
So I'm just pull it up for you guys on my computer.
24:14
We have Brandon Moreno facing Amir Al Bazi, which is again
24:18
your main event UFC Fight Night tomorrow.
24:20
So the first thing you notice about this one and again, those
24:24
who are new I was, you know this is rehashing it.
24:27
If you've sweat UFC on the pod with us before, you guys know
24:30
what I'm about to say, but we do have new people listening all
24:32
the time and I know not everyone bets UFCI personally love UFC.
24:37
If you think you've never had an epic sweat before, UFC will do
24:40
that to you because at any moment you could win or get
24:43
knocked out. It's like the ultimate, you
24:45
know, walking the tightrope. But anyway, the rudimentary
24:49
model that we've come up with overtime is basically applying
24:52
the betting market with the tail of the tape.
24:54
So we are looking for fighters or biters as I like to call
24:57
them, who are younger, taller, have a longer each, have line
25:01
movement in their favor and have a good low bets, higher dollars
25:03
bet split. So I landed on Brandon Moreno.
25:06
Give me Brandon Moreno guys now. And I got my e-mail, as I do
25:11
every Friday morning for my buddy John Ewing at Bet MGM.
25:13
First thing I noticed, Brandon Moreno is only getting 35% of
25:17
bets, but 50% of the money. So right off the bat, we are
25:22
contrarian in the main event, which is like going prime time
25:25
in a contrarian game and you know, obviously like college
25:28
football or NFL, but he's also getting half the money.
25:31
So only 1/3 of bets, but half the money.
25:33
That tells me the bigger, sharper wagers are on Moreno.
25:36
Now. Moreno opened around -150 -,
25:39
160. Now he's up all the way to -175
25:43
at BET MGM. So those are the two starting
25:46
factors here. Low bets, higher dollars,
25:48
contrarian and heavily back game fade the trendy dog reverse line
25:51
movement. You know, again, 65% of bets
25:53
flip it on Albazi or Albazi, yet the lines going to Moreno so
25:59
younger. So we have low bets, higher
26:01
dollars, sharp reverse line move.
26:03
Then we get to the tail of the tape.
26:05
Brandon Moreno is 30 years old, Albazi is 31.
26:09
Nothing huge, but one year youth advantage.
26:12
Brandon Moreno is 5 foot 6. His opponent is 5 foot 4/2 inch
26:17
height advantage. Brandon Moreno has a 70 inch
26:20
reach, Albazi has a 68 inch reach.
26:23
So we're checking off all the boxes.
26:25
Low bets, higher dollars line move, younger, taller, longer
26:28
reach. Then we get into the
26:30
supplementary factors. First thing you noticed,
26:33
significant strikes per minute. How much punishment do you dish
26:35
out? Brandon Moreno is dishing out
26:37
3.87 significant strikes per minute versus 2.8 for Al Bazi.
26:42
So he's he's the more offensive striker.
26:45
Significant strike accuracy. Can you land your punches or
26:49
kicks? 44% versus 39%.
26:53
I was also reading about how he's the better wrestler.
26:55
If this gets down to the ground advantage, Moreno, his takedown
26:59
percentage is 5046% versus only 33% for Al Bazi.
27:05
Then I was also reading Al Bazi has not fought in 18 months,
27:08
which you may say, oh, he's, you know, rested, ready to go.
27:10
But I was reading about how he had, I think a big neck surgery
27:14
and it really gave him a lot of trouble.
27:16
So he's overcoming kind of a bad injury and he hasn't fought in a
27:20
very long time. I want to fade Al Bazi in that
27:23
spot. That's kind of a tough hill to
27:25
climb. So you add it all up here, guys.
27:27
I'll be going nuts at MGM Springfield.
27:29
My boys sweating this one. Now we're all going to be
27:32
sweating it together. I'm going Brandon Moreno now.
27:35
As always, shop around because Brandon Moreno is -175 at
27:39
FanDuel and ESPN bet and bet MGM.
27:41
But Caesar's have access to multiple outs.
27:45
Whether it's your bet tracking app or juice reel, they'll
27:48
quickly give you the best, best price.
27:50
So it makes your life a lot easier.
27:51
But Caesar's is -165 So I bet Brandon Moreno checking off all
27:57
the boxes at -165. Now over to the NFL again tune
28:02
into the live stream on Sunday 11:00 AM Eastern Time.
28:04
Might have some more bets for you, but here's what I'm holding
28:07
in pocket right now Chargers in the Cleveland Browns.
28:11
Now this one's intriguing to me for a couple reasons.
28:13
I really like the move toward Cleveland Cleveland actually
28:16
open around a four point dog against the Chargers.
28:18
It's all the way down to 111 and a half.
28:21
It could be a great teaser play if you want to take Cleveland
28:23
up. The only angle that was a little
28:25
bit I didn't like too much is that Cleveland's became becoming
28:28
a little bit trendy. They're they're now getting more
28:31
than half the tickets, like 54% of bets.
28:33
I still would lean Cleveland based on that line move.
28:36
But I said, you know what, I like the under better here.
28:38
I'm going to take the Chargers Cleveland under 42 1/2 now
28:43
before it was the switch from who's it Shawn Watson to Jameis
28:49
Winston. The early look ahead line on
28:51
this game was like 39 1/2 with the total.
28:54
It got bet up all the way to 42 1/2 or even some shops got up
28:58
close to like 4344. But now it's really starting to
29:01
fall back down. So I'm noticing a lot of sharp
29:04
buyback on this Chargers Browns under.
29:07
I got it under 42 1/2. I'm playing this under and I
29:10
really like the bet split. Only 46% of bets, but 67% of the
29:14
money is on the under. So a really good low bets,
29:17
higher dollars bet split. It's also a windy under system
29:20
match at the dog pound this weekend.
29:22
You're gonna have wins about 9 to 14 mph.
29:26
You have a good Bill Vinovich as the ref, good under ref 58%
29:30
historically. And oh, by the way, the Chargers
29:33
are the best under team in the NFL.
29:34
They play a lot of these, you know, slow.
29:36
This is kind of like Harbaugh in Michigan.
29:38
Run the ball to the clock, play good defense, which is a winning
29:42
recipe, but it does lead to a lot of unders.
29:44
So you have the Charger 6 and one to the under.
29:47
This totals coming back down feels a little a little bit
29:50
inflated, but it's getting adjusted and I want to grab it
29:53
before it falls even further. So I'm going to I'm going to
29:55
play. I lean hard to the Browns, but
29:58
I'm going to play the Browns. Chargers under 42 1/2.
30:03
Keep on cruising. Next one for you.
30:04
I am going to play the Arizona Cardinals on the money line.
30:08
Arizona Cardinals at home against Chicago.
30:11
This has been a dog to fave line move.
30:12
You open this game with the Bears listed as a short
30:15
favorite. Bears were like -1 -, 1 1/2 on
30:18
the road. Now we flip to Arizona -1 1/2 at
30:23
home, so dog to fave line move. We also have an angle here where
30:28
you are contrarian. So it's a bit of a fade.
30:30
The trendy dog. Arizona's only getting 44% of
30:33
spread bets, yet the line flipped in their favor.
30:36
And then also I am going to kind of put some stock into so 1 you
30:39
have that non division favorite. I like that lack of familiarity
30:42
benefiting the better team, but also Kyler Murray veteran, Caleb
30:47
Williams, rookie and Williams look good.
30:50
But also you have a spot here where you have a good rhythm
30:54
system match. Now rhythm is predicting Arizona
30:58
-2 1/2. So if we're getting on the money
31:01
line, Arizona, I got them at -120 against, you know, a rhythm
31:05
edge that says it should be 2 1/2 good angle there to take
31:08
advantage of of hopefully a good dog to fave line move.
31:11
So I'm going to go dog to fave. You do have Chicago Bears O and
31:15
three on the road. Again, rookie quarterback, hard
31:17
to win on the road, but I'm going to bank on this Cardinals
31:20
team who's got the better offense and it's got the line
31:23
move and has a decent bet split with a rhythm edge.
31:25
So I'm on Arizona money line at -120 I'm also on the Rams money
31:30
line now. I would admit it's starting to
31:33
come back a little bit towards Seattle.
31:35
We actually open this game at some shops.
31:37
You know, Seattle listed as a as high as like a three-point
31:41
favorite at home. It then completely flipped to
31:44
Rams -2 1/2, it's coming back down, it's down to like Rams -1
31:48
so there is buyback on Seattle. But here's one thing that hasn't
31:52
changed with the Rams. They are a system matches, a
31:56
road favorite. So Rd. favorites straight up or
31:58
73% this year. But the Rams are also a good
32:01
rest. First tired play because the
32:03
Rams last played on Thursday night.
32:07
Remember cast our big ticket there with the Rams against
32:10
Minnesota. The Seahawks have lost four or
32:12
five and they just got rolled by Buffalo and they played on
32:15
Sunday. So the Rams are a three day
32:17
extra rest first tired system match as well as a dog to fave
32:21
line move and rhythm. By the way, has Rams -2 so I
32:26
fully admit, you know this line is coming back a bit towards
32:29
Seattle. Maybe there was some respected
32:31
money to hit Seattle plus 2 1/2 + 2 even 1 1/2, bring it back
32:35
down to one. Might even be getting toward to
32:38
pick him here. But I'm going to stick with this
32:40
play toward the Rams in terms of a rested team.
32:42
Again, it looks a lot better with Pukka Nakua and Cooper
32:46
cutback. So I'm going to go Rams on the
32:48
money line. Shop around.
32:49
Pretty, pretty cheap price here. You can get Rams around -110 -,
32:53
115. But give me Rams on the money
32:55
line. Then last bet for us again,
32:58
Probably will be more checking the live stream on Sunday.
33:01
But the Colts, baby took the Colts in the points last week.
33:04
They kept it close and covered against the Houston Texans.
33:08
But now I'm going to take them plus the points against the
33:10
Vikings. We talked about this play
33:12
earlier in the week. 5 1/2 is pretty still widely available
33:15
here. But Indy actually open as high
33:17
as plus 6 1/2 for Sunday Night Football.
33:20
Now it's down to 5 1/2. And why is that important?
33:23
Because this is a very sharp reverse line move play. 72% of
33:26
bets are going Minnesota, yet the line is falling toward Indy.
33:31
And again, some shops might even be creeping down toward 5.
33:33
So it's been nothing but sharp movement in favor of
33:37
Indianapolis Colts. Now, one thing like about rhythm
33:40
here is they're predicting a Indy plus 4.2 spread.
33:45
So if we're getting 5 1/2 again and in rhythms got a 4.2 tells
33:50
us we got we're on the sharp side here.
33:52
Rd. dogs getting 4 1/2 or more 21 and 13 against the spread 62%
33:57
this year. That's been a good spot.
33:58
Joe Flacco is in for Anthony Richardson.
34:01
The line move toward Indy once that announcement was made.
34:04
So Flacco an upgrade hopefully. And then you're just straight up
34:08
contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game as the as the
34:12
Colts, you're only getting 28% of that.
34:14
So I took the points again, 5 1/2 may not feel that important,
34:18
but lose by 5. We've seen that happen before.
34:21
It's not quite a key number, but it's, you know, becoming more of
34:24
a key number since they move the they move the extra point back.
34:28
So I'm going to take the 5 1/2 in pocket.
34:30
Give me Colts 5 1/2. So Colts 5 1/2, Rams money line,
34:34
Arizona money line and Chargers Browns under 42 1/2.
34:39
That about does it for episode 154 of the All Systems Go Sports
34:42
Betting podcast powered by rhythm.
34:45
This is the part of the pod where I first thank you for
34:47
taking the time out of your day to listen to the pod, to pull up
34:50
a chair to the virtual bar to walk through sharp contrarian
34:52
plays with me. So again, thank you as always,
34:55
This pod is nothing without you guys tuning in.
34:57
But also I'm now going to ask a favor of you.
34:59
I'm going to butter you up so that you can do something for
35:01
me. How about that?
35:03
But it's not asking a lot. Could you please give this
35:05
podcast a five star review? If you're listening on Spotify
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or iTunes should be an option to rate or review.
35:11
Give it five stars that mean a lot to me.
35:13
Help us to grow the pod, gain more likes, gain more
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credibility, gain more listens that mean a lot.
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So please give it a five star review if you enjoy it.
35:21
If there's also an option to follow, click that.
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That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
35:25
If you want to recommend it to a friend or leave a nice comment
35:27
in the reviews, that'll be much appreciated as well.
35:30
But please give the ASG Pod a five star review.
35:34
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown, you
35:37
would have never in your life bet The Jets last night until
35:39
you learned how to read the market.
35:42
If that's the case and you want to learn more about data-driven
35:44
betting, guess what? I wrote a book on data-driven
35:46
betting. It's called the Everything Guide
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to Sports Betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
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the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, pick up a copy for you
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or for a friend. It's got everything I've learned
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in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
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they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
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action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
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for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
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included in the everything guide to sports betting.
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So pick one up when I see at the book, I'll sign it for you and
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I'll buy you a beer and we'll sweat some, we'll sweat some
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data-driven place together next. Have you taken advantage of a 7
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day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
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My two favorite sports betting apps mention them every single
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day on the pod. I'm not here to tout them.
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I know that they work and I want them to help you win as they
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help me when I believe in them because they're data-driven
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databased. So with Rhythm doing a great job
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helping us cash that Garrett Wilson over last night, our
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Rhythm is great for their AI backed models and predictions
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for game bets and player props. And then of course Juice Reel,
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tons of great features. With Juice Reel, you can follow
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But all those great features are located with juice real.
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They're also great if you're doing futures betting to quickly
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Boom, you can easily find the best price.
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So go sign up for rhythm in juice Real, but please do it in
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this specific way. Click those custom links that
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you'll be off and running for a for a free trial of juice real
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and rhythm. So that about does it guys on a
37:34
big Friday as we steam into the month of November, the years
37:38
flying by. But of course, whether I see you
37:41
at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
37:44
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
37:47
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
37:49
Casino or MGM Springfield, Springfield, where I will be
37:53
this week, this weekend, looking forward to it with the boys.
37:56
Or of course, out in the desert with the true grinders get down
37:59
or Billy Walter sends his number runners with low as true as
38:01
possible. So at the South Point, wherever
38:03
it may be, jumping in the stadium, swimming pool at
38:05
circle, when you catch a big ticket, you're going to flash to
38:08
me a beautiful Jets ticket. The fact that we had the stones
38:13
to believe in the market, trust the market.
38:15
The market rewarded us. We're the 20% that cash for The
38:19
Jets last night Garrett Wilson over guess what first one's on
38:22
me next one's on you. We're going to post about the
38:24
book sweat sharp contrarian plays all night long.
38:27
So wish the best luck everyone have a great Friday night.
38:29
Have an even better weekend and as always, stay sharp, stay
38:33
contrarian bet against the public place yourself on the
38:35
side of the house always be with the smart money never against it
38:38
will smart money when every time not every time because nothing
38:41
wins every time, but it is going to win 55 to 60% of the time.
38:45
Smart money was The Jets, Jets came through for us.
38:48
So as always, if we can stick to that model, stick to the
38:51
blueprint that with our head and not our heart, find games that
38:54
fit our model against the public with the house, with the pros
38:56
flat bet, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
38:59
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports butters
39:02
long term. So as always, guys have a great
39:04
weekend. We back at it on Monday, but of
39:07
course, I hope to see you guys for the live stream on Sunday,
39:10
11:00 AM Eastern Time. Get ready for daylight savings.
39:12
Maybe, maybe we'll all need that extra hour sleep.
39:15
I'll be looking forward to another big weekend here and if
39:18
I don't see on the live stream, I'll see you back on Monday for
39:20
episode 155 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
39:25
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
39:27
great night.